Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

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Cyrano
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by Cyrano »

India has closed its consulate in Kandahar. Taliban control over 2/3rds of the country now. Reports say the Afghan military, despite years of training, funding and equipping by US forces, is not even putting up a fight. So any fears of a civil war are misplaced. Everyone there is simply joining the Taliban.

Several questions arise:
- What is the grip Taliban have on Afghan people that makes them not even put up a fight?
- Who is really heading the Taliban or is it (designed as) a hydra headed monster?
- If Indian officials are conducting parleys, who are they talking to? What is the credibility of those interlocutors?
- Who is funding the Taliban? Bankrupt Pak? Drug trade? Russia? China?
- What is Taliban's intent after getting much of Afghanistan under its control? Run a sharia state as before? And what else?

For those who advocate India should put boots on the ground to safeguard its north-western borders, which is easier? To fight these spillover militants across the fortified LoC where we have seasoned troops and secure logistics or in Afghanistan where we have neither and it often impossible to know whom you're talking to and where there loyalties lie?

Some posters are suggesting "Taking PoK" - its not going to help at this moment to deal with this problem. This means full scale war to defeat Pak Army, China will get involved as they have been gifted Sakshgam valley by Pakis, which is part of PoK, plus their B&RI investments in the region. Chinese troops are sitting in Ladakh in significant numbers, it will most likely be a 2 front war.

Assuming we have dealt with all that (which is a BIG assumption), we would have just pushed the frontline further west, part of the border will be with Afghanistan directly, all of which still needs to be fortified like the present LoC which took years. Given the piss poor infra in PoK, moving and supplying our troops guarding the new border will be lot more challenging. The militias will just go hiding in caves and emerge now and then to make attacks.

No one will come forward to help us, not amreekis, not Russians, not Iranians, no one. India will become the main focus of world wide jihadi elements.

Writing off a few billion $ of good faith investment in Afghanistan and focusing on safeguarding our current borders is a far wiser choice than wanting to play some "great game" for which we do not have the appetite, experience, ba!!s or capability. Moreover, its not worth it.

Time to rescue the few thousand remaining Hindus and Sikhs of Afghanistan before they get massacred, and sit watching from the sidelines for the immediate future - ie next 12-18 months.
g.sarkar
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by g.sarkar »

https://www.india.com/news/india/afghan ... s-4804016/
India Evacuates 50 Diplomats, Security Staff From Afghanistan’s Kandahar as Taliban Gains Control of New Areas
The Indian embassy last week asked all Indians visiting, staying and working in Afghanistan to exercise the utmost caution with regard to their security and avoid all types of non-essential travel in view of rising incidents of violence in various parts of the country.
Shubhangi Gupta, July 11, 2021

New Delhi: In view of the deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan, India has pulled out around 50 diplomats and security personnel from its consulate located in Kandahar.
.....
Gautam
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by g.sarkar »

https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/worl ... aits-wings
Agony in Afghanistan, while China waits in the wings
John Dobson, July 10, 2021
John Sopko, the brutally honest US inspector general for reconstruction in Afghanistan, has been sounding the alarm for years about how corruption, waste and fraud were effectively neutering the US government’s effort to breathe life into the Afghan security forces.

‘Nerves are jangling”, said the BBC chief international correspondent in Afghanistan, Lyse Doucet, last Monday, confirming that the mood in the country was one of extreme nervousness in the week that the vast majority of NATO troops completed their withdrawal after almost 20 years in the country. “Every Afghan you meet, whether they have jobs manning a shop, cleaning the streets or helping to run the country, are edgy”, she continued. “No-one expected that this year, 2021, would be the year that the last of the NATO forces would leave Afghanistan and that the Taliban would be overrunning districts in fast succession across the North of the country. Every Afghan wakes up in the morning and listens to the radio and watches television, asking themselves ‘what do I do now, how do I protect my family, can I get a visa or even money to go somewhere else?’ However, the vast majority of Afghans expect to have to stick with the situation, anticipating a bloody summer ahead.”
Afghanistan in 2021 is undeniably different to Afghanistan in 2001. A whole new generation of educated men and women has come of age, which could not have happened if Afghanistan had continued under the rule of the mullahs. The country has had a series of elections and now has proper institutions. The reconstructed capital, Kabul, is totally different to the city left in ruins by the retreating Taliban twenty years ago. Although most citizens didn’t expect the foreign troops to stay, they are now asking why they didn’t prepare better for their departure. Doucet reports that many are questioning why a negotiated settlement with the Taliban could not have been achieved, at a time when the authorities are scrambling to get contractors in place to keep the airport safe, scrambling to find ways to support the Afghan security forces, and how to protect Afghan girls and women. In many parts of the country there have been significant improvements in the conditions for girls and women, but in Kabul they are hearing reports that in the areas where the Taliban have regained control, schools for girls are now limited to the age of 11, men are required not to shave their beards, and people are warned not to play music. All an echo of a very dark past.
“It will be very challenging for us to stay alive” said 23-year-old Simin Assy, a newly qualified lawyer and a member of the Shia Hazaras, the third largest ethnic group in Afghanistan, which in recent years has suffered massacres and pogroms under the Sunni Pashtun Taliban. “My family and friends are going to have to struggle for our lives”, she said in an interview with the BBC. “I shall not be able to work, because of the problem the Taliban have for working women. To be safe I need to stay inside the house.” Ramish Saleimi, 24, a young Afghan who works for an NGO in Kabul, also felt the incoming Taliban would have a huge effect on his life. “We are facing the same situation of almost 20 years ago”, he gloomily forecasts.
.....
Gautam
Y. Kanan
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by Y. Kanan »

Turkey poised to intervene in Afghanistan
https://southfront.org/the-afghan-army- ... the-fight/
n a six-point joint statement issued by Taliban spokesman Mohammad Naeem, the two sides agreed that continuing the war was dangerous for the country and all efforts must be made to find a peaceful solution.

However, as far as Turkey is concerned it is ready to throw a wrench in those plans.

On July 6th, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that Ankara was preparing to send Syrian militants to Afghanistan.

What role they will fill remains unclear, as Turkey is currently priming to provide security to the Kabul airport and nothing more.

Turkey appears to be heading to a military adventure in Afghanistan.

The Taliban has already warned Ankara against keeping any troops in the country after September 11th.

Judging by Turkey’s recent operations in Libya, Nagorno-Karabakh and its successive operations in Syria and Iraq, Ankara is unlikely to listen to any reason or warnings.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by Y. Kanan »

g.sarkar wrote:https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/worl ... aits-wings
AEvery Afghan wakes up in the morning and listens to the radio and watches television, asking themselves ‘what do I do now, how do I protect my family, can I get a visa or even money to go somewhere else?’ However, the vast majority of Afghans expect to have to stick with the situation, anticipating a bloody summer ahead.”
Afghanistan in 2021 is undeniably different to Afghanistan in 2001. A whole new generation of educated men and women has come of age, which could not have happened if Afghanistan had continued under the rule of the mullahs. The country has had a series of elections and now has proper institutions. The reconstructed capital, Kabul, is totally different to the city left in ruins by the retreating Taliban twenty years ago. Although most citizens didn’t expect the foreign troops to stay, they are now asking why they didn’t prepare better for their departure. Doucet reports that many are questioning why a negotiated settlement with the Taliban could not have been achieved, at a time when the authorities are scrambling to get contractors in place to keep the airport safe, scrambling to find ways to support the Afghan security forces, and how to protect Afghan girls and women. In many parts of the country there have been significant improvements in the conditions for girls and women, but in Kabul they are hearing reports that in the areas where the Taliban have regained control, schools for girls are now limited to the age of 11, men are required not to shave their beards, and people are warned not to play music. All an echo of a very dark past.
“It will be very challenging for us to stay alive” said 23-year-old Simin Assy, a newly qualified lawyer and a member of the Shia Hazaras, the third largest ethnic group in Afghanistan, which in recent years has suffered massacres and pogroms under the Sunni Pashtun Taliban. “My family and friends are going to have to struggle for our lives”, she said in an interview with the BBC. “I shall not be able to work, because of the problem the Taliban have for working women. To be safe I need to stay inside the house.” Ramish Saleimi, 24, a young Afghan who works for an NGO in Kabul, also felt the incoming Taliban would have a huge effect on his life. “We are facing the same situation of almost 20 years ago”, he gloomily forecasts.


... a good reminder of what happens to those who throw in their lot with the United States. We should keep in mind the Americans will betray us the moment it suits them (as they always do). We're of some use, for the moment, as a spoiler vs China, but they'll back stab us as soon as it's expedient to do so. Every US weapons deal is another future point of vulnerability for us when they sanction us, deny us spares, etc.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by rsangram »

Shameful, disgraceful and an utter defeat for India. For India Afghanistan is a real defeat and a strategic defeat, as opposed to the US, for whom it was merely an expedition, a project.

And to think of it, India had decades to plan for this eventuality(of Americans retreating- there was writing on the wall to this effect as far back as the eye can see), but did zlich, including in the six years of Modi. Where is even the Northern Alliance now ? Or an equivalent ?

All this talk about India playing the great game ? Where is it now ? Now some in BRF are making excuses for India saying, it is so much more "Chankian" to fight the Chechen terrorists coming across a fortified LOC than in Afghanistan. If it were so, why did we indulge in grandiose talk earlier about the Great Game. Chalk it to the "Jingos", I guess.

For Pakistan on the other hand, it is a seminal victory. And now, the Americans are not coming back, at least for a century. Paki and the Chinese now are completely free to have their way in Afghanistan, and no wonder, already, every Afghan is a Taliban.

I have said it before, as pathetic as the Pakis are, their military has served Paki interests infinitely better than the Indian politicos and Indian political system has served Indian interests. It is plain for all to see, and that statement does not even need any arguments to support it, it is axiomatic, self evident. Although there is no dirth of arguments in its favor.

Losing Afghanistan is a defeat of the same scale and consequence as the loss of Prithviraj in the 2nd battle of Tarain. This is a humiliating defeat for the Hindus. The Hindus better wake up and introspect, very very seriously, rather than fall back to where they habitually fall back under these circumstances - denial, delusion, illogic, bluster, jingoism and banning a few posters in BRF, and shoot a few fellow Hindu messengers and even a bystander or two.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by sanjaykumar »

Afghanistan is so irrelevant that the Americans did not even bother to declare the customary victory before retreating.

Afghanistan’s chief defence is that it is not worth occupying.

India has demonstrated its strategy. Ask those who became shaheed after pulwama. The long faces in the command centre in Rawalpindi/Islamabad the next day spoke most eloquently. That strike shook their world. Please review that video footage.

Jihadis are cheap. Pakistan’s generals not so much. Pakistan needs America to pay China those usurious interest rates. Pakistan has started importing foods.

Karachi and Baluchistan are waiting to
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by sanjaykumar »

explode.
yensoy
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by yensoy »

rsangram wrote:Shameful, disgraceful and an utter defeat for India. For India Afghanistan is a real defeat and a strategic defeat, as opposed to the US, for whom it was merely an expedition, a project.
How can it be a defeat when we didn't even play the game?

And we didn't play the game because we knew this is exactly how it would unfold. Firangis would pack up and leave and we wouldn't have any way to defend given no available overland route. Beside how do you inflict damage on cave people and their goats?

Taliban will take over Afghanistan, that is given. They may even take over Pakistan and that would be the end of Pakistan as a country and as a threat.
Cyrano
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by Cyrano »

rsangram, instead of vague ranting, posting an analysis of what India's objectives were in Afghanistan, what factors led to the current situation and what options you see going forward will make for an intelligent discussion. Thats what BRF is for. If you just want to rant, social media is a better place.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by dada »

A twitter post mentions that Talibans killed 7 Afghan Pilots in recent month to eliminate any advantage Afghan military enjoyed till date.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by chetak »

rsangram wrote:Shameful, disgraceful and an utter defeat for India. For India Afghanistan is a real defeat and a strategic defeat, as opposed to the US, for whom it was merely an expedition, a project.

And to think of it, India had decades to plan for this eventuality(of Americans retreating- there was writing on the wall to this effect as far back as the eye can see), but did zlich, including in the six years of Modi. Where is even the Northern Alliance now ? Or an equivalent ?

All this talk about India playing the great game ? Where is it now ? Now some in BRF are making excuses for India saying, it is so much more "Chankian" to fight the Chechen terrorists coming across a fortified LOC than in Afghanistan. If it were so, why did we indulge in grandiose talk earlier about the Great Game. Chalk it to the "Jingos", I guess.

For Pakistan on the other hand, it is a seminal victory. And now, the Americans are not coming back, at least for a century. Paki and the Chinese now are completely free to have their way in Afghanistan, and no wonder, already, every Afghan is a Taliban.

I have said it before, as pathetic as the Pakis are, their military has served Paki interests infinitely better than the Indian politicos and Indian political system has served Indian interests. It is plain for all to see, and that statement does not even need any arguments to support it, it is axiomatic, self evident. Although there is no dirth of arguments in its favor.

Losing Afghanistan is a defeat of the same scale and consequence as the loss of Prithviraj in the 2nd battle of Tarain. This is a humiliating defeat for the Hindus. The Hindus better wake up and introspect, very very seriously, rather than fall back to where they habitually fall back under these circumstances - denial, delusion, illogic, bluster, jingoism and banning a few posters in BRF, and shoot a few fellow Hindu messengers and even a bystander or two.


when did we "have" afghanistan that "losing" it became a defeat for us.

we will never commit to boots on the ground there, not because of fear or something stoopide like that but because of logistics. We have no reliable access routes to supply our troops there.

nor do we have any meaningful national objective to be accomplished by staying there. Indeed, the afghans would love for India to take over their security for them but we have to be really retarded to commit harakiri in some wasteland far away and in return get swamped by "refugees" who will land up in India and very soon demand sharia.

In the meanwhile, PIOs like Hindus and sikhs continue to be butchered there, and you want to help these roper sphincters.

the amerikis spent trillions of dollars there and achieved jackshyte and in the end ran away in the dark without even informing the afghans.

do we look stoopide or do we look like we have some spare trillions of dollars to prop up some jehadi deadwood.

we need to be prepared to take on the taliban and the ISIS here in India and not just in cashmere. We need to regroup here and cut our losses in afghanistan.

the taliban will definitely be heading India's way soon enough, thanks to the pakis and the cheenis who are going to orchestrate this as payback for sabotaging the CPEC and for the QUAD.

The ISIS are already here.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by vimal »

America's retreat means the decades long overland access to Afghanistan is no longer needed by NATO troops.
- This means that the gravy train of Coalition Support Fund also dries up for Pakis.
- For Unkil there is no more any importance for Pakis. It is now a Cheeni poodle or even worse. Cheenis will not give any free cash unlike Unkil.
- Every nation in Central Asia or bordering it now needs to watch its borders closely as Taliban will spillover.
- Its everyone's headache instead of just unkil.


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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by nam »

There is nothing Afghanistan worth fighting for us. If the taliban come towards LoC, it is not like 2000. It is fenced and we will rain fire on Pak position.

Regarding Afghanistan, instead of Afghan gov, fighting for every inch, they should form a defensive line to allow anyone to who wants to escape, come in. All the 7th century village types can stay in Taliban areas.

We should fund the Afghan forces to defend this line. No amount of bravery is going to break a well funded defensive line.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by vera_k »

^ Where can a defensive line be established? Based on this time lapse video, it doesn't look like there is any feasible way to keep government forces supplied.

Mapping Taliban Contested and Controlled Districts in Afghanistan
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by nam »

Taliban doesn't have manpower and firepower to hold such large areas. Other than cities, most of Afghanistan is remote, barren and thinly populated. Taliban move from district to another to create the "aura" of capturing these places.

The defensive line will be major cities in the North, including Kabul. Connection with borders of Iran and other 'stans. Divide the country in to 2. Afghan gov should stop wasting time and resources in the south.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by nam »

Our defeat in Afghanistan is not about Taliban victories, it is our lack of local MIC.

We should have flooded Afghanistan with cheap UCAV, armed with ATGM to provide constant air support to Afghan forces. With airpower, Pakistan would have to provide lot of resources to Taliban.

An insurgency funded by a dirt poor country like Pak cannot succeed against airpower.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by hnair »

Folks, rsangram was a poster of concern for a while and has been processed. Please don’t respond to its posts anymore.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by williams »

The negatives never changed as below:

1. US never supported any Indian interest in Afghanistan or in any other important issues. In spite of all natural partners bullsh1t, US still looks at India as a client transactional state and India will still look for strategic independence. So always US is going to stay neutral to Indian interest at best is something our MEA babus should be aware by now.
2. Pakis are again going to dream about strategic depth and will try to see if they can send Talibunnies to LoC.
3. Chinese will as usual fish in troubled waters.

But here are the positives
1. Kashmir is no longer under the control of traitors who played double game all the time.
2. We will not hesitate to cross the Loc if Pakis try to send talibunnies across the LOC
3. We have enough troops in the border to deter the Chinese.

Let us focus on border infrastructure, building credible MIC and take over some of the Chinese market share in exports. Build our economy to a point where we can sent troops to remote locations to enforce our interests. Until then, we cannot play any great game.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by g.sarkar »

I think India will go back to supporting Tajik-Afghans in the Panjshir Valley, if all else fails. Best of luck to the Chinese, should they come.
Gautam
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by CalvinH »

Taliban are smart and has captured all the border posts first. In the map and time lapse video @verak_k posted you can see that Taliban has focused on border outposts to ensure that all inward routes to supply any defensive line in the middle are closed.

Taliban have enough men. I am sure they have an open supply line from Jehadi madrassas in Pakistan. And now they have good quality weapons too. They dont need to dominate areas. One need to do that if there is a viable opposition that is presenting continuous challenge. In a month or so no such opposition will exist. The only organized force in the region would be Taliban.

India should stay away from this. We did what we could and for many years we have been a thorn in Pakistan side in the region despite many real obstacles. People who never recognized us as a player in the region in the first place now seem so happy when we are withdrawing. That says so much.

Pakistan would the ultimate loser if Taliban establish an Emirate in Afghanistan. Pakis thinking that they have a leverage over Taliban because they have the wives and kids of Taliban leaders hostage in Pakistan is laughable at best.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by m_saini »

williams wrote:
Let us focus on border infrastructure, building credible MIC and take over some of the Chinese market share in exports. Build our economy to a point where we can sent troops to remote locations to enforce our interests. Until then, we cannot play any great game.
+1
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by chanakyaa »

chetak wrote:...
we need to be prepared to take on the taliban and the ISIS here in India and not just in cashmere. We need to regroup here and cut our losses in afghanistan.

the taliban will definitely be heading India's way soon enough, thanks to the pakis and the cheenis who are going to orchestrate this as payback for sabotaging the CPEC and for the QUAD...
this alleged hasty withdrawal wasn’t hasty and unplanned. Uncle also left lot of seed capital/equipment behind. Also, this theory from “great-game” dhaaga hypothizing uncle hoping to turn the AFG-Chena barder into a hostile border for Chena not adding up either. First of all, Looking at the way things are going on in Bakistan, very soon the diff btw Bak and AFG will likely fade. And, if toorkie merc are brought in the region, the heat is likely going to be on India than cheena.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by rsingh »

US left Agganistan after spending billions and loosing lives. One forget that their has not been a major attack on US soil since 2001. It looks like Afganistan is free for all terrorist camp. I think US has planned well the exit. They have calculated that there is no need to maintain troops on ground. They have farmers capabilities hit Talibanis any time any where.Russia is tired of trying to be worlds defender. China will calculate. They know that it is difficult to win assymetric war. Chinese will never do anything that iwill bring lose of face. They had their lesson recently. Chinese will use Pakistan to buy some influence to protect its interest.
India had done well by bringing some kind of normality in Afganistan. Even Talibani will accept this. We need to save our investment by being taken as people's care taker. Continue that. Bakistan will do its usual provisions , but US is there. Most of the civilized world do not want terrorists rraing camps in Afganistan. JMT
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by g.sarkar »

https://thediplomat.com/2021/07/chinas- ... an-gambit/
China’s Afghanistan Gambit
The pace of the Taliban’s military advancement on the eve of the U.S. pullout not only stokes worries of regional spillover, but also shines a spotlight on China.
Barbara Kelemen, July 13, 2021

As the United States approaches the final deadline to withdraw its last troops from Afghanistan, the Taliban are rapidly overrunning districts and gaining control of large swaths of the country. The group is doing so faster than anyone had imagined, to the point that the U.S. military has reportedly moved its forecasted timeline for a possible collapse of the civilian government to only six months after its pullout.
Indeed, with June being the deadliest month in Afghanistan in two decades, the former Afghan President Hamid Karzai now openly calls the Western deployment a “failed mission” underlying the rise in terrorist attacks both by the Taliban, as well as the Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP), which is also active in Afghanistan.
This worry is now particularly echoed when looking at potential scenarios of regional spillovers. Last week, at least 1,000 Afghan security service members fled into Tajikistan. More importantly, the Afghan government has now abandoned the Wakhan district in Badakhshan province, one of the most strategically important areas for China. Badakhshan province, and the Wakhan corridor, in particular, are now all but lost to the Taliban. Unless the group is able to keep a lid on rising tensions, China will be pushed to once again modify its long-standing principle of non-interference.
One of the main goals of the U.S. mission was to eradicate the threat of al-Qaida and make sure Afghanistan will cease to provide a safe haven for terrorist groups active in the region. This commitment is one of the main pillars of the U.S. deal with the Taliban, which pledged to keep the foreign fighters out of the country. However, the most recent U.N. report on Afghanistan published in June 2021 says that the Taliban and al-Qaida continue to enjoy close ties “based on ideological alignment” and forged via “common struggle and intermarriage.” In addition, the document clearly states that al-Qaida and like-minded militants celebrate developments in Afghanistan as a “victory for the Taliban and thus for global radicalism.” In this case, any hope that the Taliban are dealing in a good faith and will live up to their commitments appears largely misguided, if not outright misplaced.
It is now clear that there are two possible scenarios for the future of Afghanistan, none of which will lead to a more stable Afghanistan. In a slightly better outcome, the United States keeps its promise to protect its foreign mission in Kabul and provides a certain level of support for the Afghan military. In this case, Kabul will go on to live isolated from the rest of the country, much of which will probably succumb to the rule of the Taliban. For now, there have been various proposals of foreign deployment in Kabul, one including Turkey and Hungary in a joint mission at the Kabul airport. However, in the most recent sign of the Taliban’s real long-term strategy, Suhail Shaheen, a member of the Taliban negotiation team, cast doubts when speaking to BBC this week on whether the Taliban will be able to accept any foreign troop deployment.
The Taliban’s evolving rhetoric together with their rapid military advancement takes us to the second question: How long can Kabul resist outside military pressure?
As the fighting hits up in the northern part of Afghanistan, the Taliban are now approaching Badakhshan, one of the most strategically important areas for China. Beijing has concerns about the potential of Islamist militancy spilling over to China or Uyghur militants using Afghanistan to regroup and train. Indeed, the country’s regional significance directly led to China’s rising military presence in Tajikistan only 10 miles from the Afghan border, while there have also been reports of Chinese activities in Afghanistan’s Wakhan corridor directly. Another side of the coin is China’s own economic projects, although the real economic value of those could be disputed.
......
Gautam
vimal
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by vimal »

^^ As usual no mention of the China's tallel than moontain fliend Pakis.
Are we all so naive to believe that Pakis cannot contain or redirect their talibunnies to whatever direction they want.

Next set of articles will be "How China succeeded in Afghanistan when US failed" "Xi the wonderful vs Biden the bunny".
Last edited by vimal on 14 Jul 2021 01:52, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by kit »

Afghanistan is best managed not by occupation but by creating significant resistance assymetric power groups who can "actively" manage whatever status quo the Taliban can manage., i would say it will be cheaper and also make it easier to support "terror" groups inside Pakistan as well., Afghanistan is likely to become increasingly move towards narcotics trade and a huge headache .. narco terrorism is the worst beast any country would have to face . This will bite the Americans and the chinese as well .
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by Y. Kanan »

rsangram wrote:Shameful, disgraceful and an utter defeat for India. For India Afghanistan is a real defeat and a strategic defeat, as opposed to the US, for whom it was merely an expedition, a project.

And to think of it, India had decades to plan for this eventuality(of Americans retreating- there was writing on the wall to this effect as far back as the eye can see), but did zlich, including in the six years of Modi. Where is even the Northern Alliance now ? Or an equivalent ?

All this talk about India playing the great game ? Where is it now ? Now some in BRF are making excuses for India saying, it is so much more "Chankian" to fight the Chechen terrorists coming across a fortified LOC than in Afghanistan. If it were so, why did we indulge in grandiose talk earlier about the Great Game. Chalk it to the "Jingos", I guess.

For Pakistan on the other hand, it is a seminal victory. And now, the Americans are not coming back, at least for a century. Paki and the Chinese now are completely free to have their way in Afghanistan, and no wonder, already, every Afghan is a Taliban.

I have said it before, as pathetic as the Pakis are, their military has served Paki interests infinitely better than the Indian politicos and Indian political system has served Indian interests. It is plain for all to see, and that statement does not even need any arguments to support it, it is axiomatic, self evident. Although there is no dirth of arguments in its favor.

Losing Afghanistan is a defeat of the same scale and consequence as the loss of Prithviraj in the 2nd battle of Tarain. This is a humiliating defeat for the Hindus. The Hindus better wake up and introspect, very very seriously, rather than fall back to where they habitually fall back under these circumstances - denial, delusion, illogic, bluster, jingoism and banning a few posters in BRF, and shoot a few fellow Hindu messengers and even a bystander or two.
Why do we have to "win" in Afghanistan? That was never in the cards, in any case.

Why can't we simply coordinate with Russia, Iran, and Central Asian republics to arm and supply a new Northern Alliance? Just keep the resistance alive in the non-Pushtun areas of Afghanistan, to deny the Pakis a total victory? Or maybe do nothing? Perhaps that would actually be the smartest move. Let the Taliban\ISIS\Wahabbi types completely take over the country. Maybe they'll be so flush with victory that they'll try to completely take over Pakistan's NWFP or even spread further into Pakistan itself. Terrorism and Islamic militancy is going to continue in India regardless of whether Afghanistan falls or continues to languish in civil war. The Wahabbi terror havens are in the Pushtun areas of Afghanistan and in Pakistan itself, and these areas have continued to serve as safe havens for Islamic militancy all this time, from the late 90's through the 2000's and up to the present day. Even during the height of the American occupation, anti-Indian terrorists continued to operate from Afghanistan and Pakistan the entire time. That never changed.

Some of you guys are acting like our situation has suddenly gotten worse. It hasn't. The Islamic threat to India is no worse now than in was in 1999. At least now, the Pakis know we'll hit them a standoff air strike the next time we suffer a particularly deadly or embarrassing terror attack. Granted, it would be a symbolic strike only, but when a Balakot-style strike does occur, even if does no real damage, it's still embarrassing for Paki leaders and they'd rather avoid it. This forces them to keep their militants on a somewhat tighter leash, limited to pinprick attacks that only kill tens of Indians (not hundreds, or thousands).
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by nachiket »

Y. Kanan, please read hnair's post above. rsangram has been permanently banned and posters have been asked not to respond to him.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by vinod »

Why can't India get into an covert understanding with afghan taliban and say India will help taliban to take over Pakistan and make it the great Afghanistan?
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by bharathp »

vinod wrote:Why can't India get into an covert understanding with afghan taliban and say India will help taliban to take over Pakistan and make it the great Afghanistan?
when did the invaders stop at one border? my 2 cents: dont fall into the trap of "understanding" with people who consider us infidels and lesser beings. we dont need afg to take over TSP.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by ramana »

Trump had announced the withdrawal date to be in the fall so that it's cold and the Taliban won't have an advantage.
Biden for whatever reasons advanced the date and people will chalk it up to his bumbling.
However, it may not be so. For now, the Taliban have gained control of a majority of Afghanistan.
Thanks to useless aid and training from the US, the ANA was anyway confined to the towns.
So this completes what was already defacto.
Now Taliban are not a monolith. And they have shown spunk in telling off Turkey.
A few high-ranking TSPA officers have been captured per Twitter.
Let us see.
Crying woe is me won't help.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by ramana »

Trump had announced the withdrawal date to be in the fall so that it's cold and the Taliban won't have an advantage.
Biden for whatever reasons advanced the date and people will chalk it up to his bumbling.
However, it may not be so. For now, the Taliban have gained control of a majority of Afghanistan.
Thanks to useless aid and training from the US, the ANA was anyway confined to the towns.
So this completes what was already defacto.
Now Taliban are not a monolith. And they have shown spunk in telling off Turkey.
A few high-ranking TSPA officers have been captured per Twitter.
Let us see.
Crying woe is me won't help.
ramana
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by ramana »

ChanakyaM wrote:
Pratyush wrote:Not without India. Afganistan in the absence of trade with India through the land route can simply be bypassed.

CARs are much more important than Afghanistan.
Time to take back POK may be to shut it out (?)
How does this work?

The neighbor to PoK is Pakistan, not Afghanistan.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by CalvinH »

ramana wrote:Trump had announced the withdrawal date to be in the fall so that it's cold and the Taliban won't have an advantage.
Biden for whatever reasons advanced the date and people will chalk it up to his bumbling.
However, it may not be so. For now, the Taliban have gained control of a majority of Afghanistan.
Thanks to useless aid and training from the US, the ANA was anyway confined to the towns.
So this completes what was already defacto.
Now Taliban are not a monolith. And they have shown spunk in telling off Turkey.
A few high-ranking TSPA officers have been captured per Twitter.
Let us see.
Crying woe is me won't help.
Taliban are in rush to dominate the rural areas before winters set in. With towns encircled and borders closed it would be a battle of attrition during the winters as cities can only get supplies through air. Taliban wont rush in and repeat the 1989 Jalalabad type blunder though this time I guess Afghan government forces are much disorganized compared to 1989 (as an opposition).

Today there was video where 22 Special forces soldiers of Afghan army were killed in cold blood by Taliban after they surrendered. Taliban is going for full control.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by Roop »

nam wrote:Our defeat in Afghanistan ...
"Our" defeat?!!! WTF, how is it our defeat? Did India have military forces deployed in Afgh to defend the country? Did we have a pact/alliance with them (as we have with Bhutan) to defend them against attack? Was there ever any hint of a suggestion from an Indian leader that we would deploy military forces to fight in support of the ANA against the Taliban?

The answer to all the above is a resounding "No!". So how is it our defeat? All this weeping and lamentation is nothing but Indians doing what we do best -- whining that we are weak and powerless while our enemies are all strong, cunning and Chankian (oh, excuse me, that should be SunTzu-ian).
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by CalvinH »

In new few weeks
- Taliban will gain more ground but will fail to take any major large cities. More failure means more scare tactics deployed by Taliban in the region it controls or is aiming to control. Few public beheadings, killings and lamp posts may be...
- Taliban will try to work diplomatically with all Iran and other powers in the region to gain credibility. This is Taqqiya of course as they don't want regional powers to prop up factions that can delay their control over Afghanistan. No until they have captured big cities and encircled Kabul before Winters.

It would be interesting to see what Iran, Pakistan and China do. I have a feeling that Taliban's rapid victories have unnerved Pakis too. An unstable Afghanistan where Taliban are contained to areas with their stone age civilization, and are available for useful work as needed suits Pakistan. China is smart will stay away. They seem to have obtained assurance for the only topic that concerns them (Uighur freedom fighters)

In all this the biggest factor is what is Taliban thinking and how smart they have become in last 20 years. They are in few feet of achieving a nation for themselves and change the future of the region.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by tandav »

g.sarkar wrote:https://thediplomat.com/2021/07/chinas- ... an-gambit/
China’s Afghanistan Gambit
The pace of the Taliban’s military advancement on the eve of the U.S. pullout not only stokes worries of regional spillover, but also shines a spotlight on China.
Barbara Kelemen, July 13, 2021

As the United States approaches the final deadline to withdraw its last troops from Afghanistan, the Taliban are rapidly overrunning districts and gaining control of large swaths of the country. The group is doing so faster than anyone had imagined, to the point that the U.S. military has reportedly moved its forecasted timeline for a possible collapse of the civilian government to only six months after its pullout.
Indeed, with June being the deadliest month in Afghanistan in two decades, the former Afghan President Hamid Karzai now openly calls the Western deployment a “failed mission” underlying the rise in terrorist attacks both by the Taliban, as well as the Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP), which is also active in Afghanistan.
This worry is now particularly echoed when looking at potential scenarios of regional spillovers. Last week, at least 1,000 Afghan security service members fled into Tajikistan. More importantly, the Afghan government has now abandoned the Wakhan district in Badakhshan province, one of the most strategically important areas for China. Badakhshan province, and the Wakhan corridor, in particular, are now all but lost to the Taliban. Unless the group is able to keep a lid on rising tensions, China will be pushed to once again modify its long-standing principle of non-interference.
One of the main goals of the U.S. mission was to eradicate the threat of al-Qaida and make sure Afghanistan will cease to provide a safe haven for terrorist groups active in the region. This commitment is one of the main pillars of the U.S. deal with the Taliban, which pledged to keep the foreign fighters out of the country. However, the most recent U.N. report on Afghanistan published in June 2021 says that the Taliban and al-Qaida continue to enjoy close ties “based on ideological alignment” and forged via “common struggle and intermarriage.” In addition, the document clearly states that al-Qaida and like-minded militants celebrate developments in Afghanistan as a “victory for the Taliban and thus for global radicalism.” In this case, any hope that the Taliban are dealing in a good faith and will live up to their commitments appears largely misguided, if not outright misplaced.
It is now clear that there are two possible scenarios for the future of Afghanistan, none of which will lead to a more stable Afghanistan. In a slightly better outcome, the United States keeps its promise to protect its foreign mission in Kabul and provides a certain level of support for the Afghan military. In this case, Kabul will go on to live isolated from the rest of the country, much of which will probably succumb to the rule of the Taliban. For now, there have been various proposals of foreign deployment in Kabul, one including Turkey and Hungary in a joint mission at the Kabul airport. However, in the most recent sign of the Taliban’s real long-term strategy, Suhail Shaheen, a member of the Taliban negotiation team, cast doubts when speaking to BBC this week on whether the Taliban will be able to accept any foreign troop deployment.
The Taliban’s evolving rhetoric together with their rapid military advancement takes us to the second question: How long can Kabul resist outside military pressure?
As the fighting hits up in the northern part of Afghanistan, the Taliban are now approaching Badakhshan, one of the most strategically important areas for China. Beijing has concerns about the potential of Islamist militancy spilling over to China or Uyghur militants using Afghanistan to regroup and train. Indeed, the country’s regional significance directly led to China’s rising military presence in Tajikistan only 10 miles from the Afghan border, while there have also been reports of Chinese activities in Afghanistan’s Wakhan corridor directly. Another side of the coin is China’s own economic projects, although the real economic value of those could be disputed.
......
Gautam
The Taliban have whole heartedly accepted China as a partner. The Islamic - China axis will only be strengthened as I predicted long ago.
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/14/asia ... index.html

In general Islamic and Chinese Societies are similar in nature (Autocracy suits them) and both are ruthless in pursuing their interests and both understand each other very well.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by Pratyush »

So much for the people saying a clash of civilizations is wrong theory. That it will never happen.

China has Pakistan, Turkey, Iran, firmly in the back pocket. At the moment. The Arabs are waiting for indications. Before the cast their own lot with China. Taliban are ready t jump in bed with China.

Interesting equations are emerging in the world.
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Re: Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

Post by Cyrano »

In general Islamic and Chinese Societies are similar in nature (Autocracy suits them) and both are ruthless in pursuing their interests and both understand each other very well.
Thats why any agreement or deal with them where you fulfil your end of the bargain expecting them to do the same is totally stupid. The only language they understand is force. Constantly.
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