Status of Indian Nationals abroad

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Singha
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions (YEMEN, gulf)

Postby Singha » 23 Jun 2017 22:15

^^ they stood down like meek sheep while Erdogans goons romped all over Incirlik and arrested dozens of pilots incl the base commander.

they will do what is needed to preserve their own backsides and political interests. al Udeid can be rebuilt anywhere, most of it can be ported off in containers and other bases like dhahran , thumrait are there to take up slack until a nuova al-udeid is built in the saudi desert

one must recall what the US did to help its friend the shah of iran - a regime deemed so important it was given the F-14 fighters and other stuff no other asian ally could hope to get. stuff of TSPs wet dreams.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions (YEMEN, gulf)

Postby IndraD » 23 Jun 2017 22:19

Singha wrote:if the US or UK arbitrarily jails and beats up 1000s of desis for waging a democratic march somewhere , this forum and entire indian govt and media will be up in arms over it, but why do we "accept as our place" the 2nd and 3rd class treatment that we expect indians to get over in gulf ? is it ok ?

perhaps answer lies in the fact that Indians went looking for jobs in Gulf and it not other way around..US, UK are open democratic countries pretending to be leaders of the world with some what free press hence answerable, plus they have reputation to save..
Saudi has no reputation to save. There are no courts/judiciary in Gulf and if any one had to deal with police there they will tell you even more frightening stories..these are ruthless brutal kabilas with oil.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions (YEMEN, gulf)

Postby Singha » 23 Jun 2017 22:20

>> We were seen as weak nation till 2010 in Gulf: don't know situation now. But then even Phillipines embassay was way more powerful than India's

by treating the GCC with kid gloves and accepting bad systems like the kafila permit and impounding of workers passports by employers we set ourself to be treated like dogs.

if we lie down and yelp like dogs, the GCC will be happy to kick us on our backside as we deserve.

philipines has less people there, is christian mostly and is not even near enough to cause any trouble. tells its own sad tale. its strength is such that has been unable to wrest back a single town from the ISIS in over 2 weeks now.

look at the iranians - small in number but atleast they rioted and raised hell in mecca when treated bad or heckled by some other contingent. malsis of all stripes are quick to mobilize and dominate areas if they need to.

I dont think being a tiger at home and a pussycat abroad in the hope of a big house and a few gold biscuits is going to hack it anymore in these tough times. other claimants to the money and gold are lined up and licking their lips waiting for us to cut and run as usual. india will have to tough it out this time .

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions (YEMEN, gulf)

Postby Karthik S » 23 Jun 2017 23:05

#BeefBan RamaY‏ @RamaY_BRF
#BeefBan RamaY Retweeted #BeefBan RamaY
#AirLift2
Oman, due to its location & size, can be a good place for Bharat to have a permanent base for Expat-City!


This is a good idea too, we can persuade Oman or even Qataris to permit us to have a military base there, just like Cheen are building at Djibouti. In 6 7 years, we'll be the 3rd largest economy in nominal terms, should be able to manage such base.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions (YEMEN, gulf)

Postby nam » 23 Jun 2017 23:09

If the Arabs try to punish us for helping our people, well I am sure they will be glad to see a Indian Naval base in Chabahar or SSBN visits.

It's not a good idea to push a potential future 3 largest economy in your rival's camp.

Wonder how Emirates Airways would feel being banned from India and having to bypass India on their way to ASEAN and Australia.. I am sure Emirates will have a bigger version of what happened to Qatar Airways recently.

When I last checked in the Dubai airport, just in the morning 7.30 to 11 AM there were flights to 22 cities in India!

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions (YEMEN, gulf)

Postby Rudradev » 24 Jun 2017 00:01

Singha wrote:^^ they stood down like meek sheep while Erdogans goons romped all over Incirlik and arrested dozens of pilots incl the base commander.


Saar that is comparing khajoor vs. oranges.

Erdogan's goons were the Turkish govt. The pilots arrested were Turkish AF people who had supported the failed coup. And all of this was happening in Turkey. No sovereignty issue, in fact it could have been a sovereignty violation for US forces at Incirlik to prevent it from happening.

Contrast this to Indian armed forces mounting an expedition to cordon off an area of Qatar, whose territorial integrity/sovereignty are guaranteed by the US presence at Al Udeid.

they will do what is needed to preserve their own backsides and political interests.


Exactly, and what are those political interests?

Would the Americans like to see India taking over a piece of territory in as strategic a location as Qatar... no matter what we say the reason is... and occupying that territory with an open-ended and long-term military presence?

I think we need to look at the 30,000 foot view of the US' framework of understanding/confronting those whom they see as "imperial players" in West Asia.

Few quick points on this:

1) From a long-term and global perspective, India is very high up in the US' threat matrix. We may be third or even second from the top of their list of long-term competitors/adversaries. Boxing us in is very important.

2) If we establish a military presence in Qatar we are reaching outside "the box" that America is prepared to "allow" us in its Pax Americana schema (the way it parcels the world into what it considers to be "legitimate" and "illegitimate" spheres of influence of different lesser powers).

3) In West Asia (see Robert Kaplan amongst many others) the US considers Iran and Turkey to have "legitimate" historical claims as local imperial states, and expects them to have a stake in expanding their spheres of influence in the region. This does not mean the US is happy to see Iran or Turkey expand their influence in West Asia, but that it recognizes their inherent compulsions to do so, and accounts for these compulsions when drawing up its own long-term strategy.

4) However, in West Asia, the US recognizes only one "legitimate" imperial power in addition to Turkey and Iran. That power is: whoever has inherited the mantle of the British Empire. (Don't give me gaalis for saying this, I am merely stating how the Americans view the world, not agreeing with their view).

5) Obviously there can only be one power that can legitimately claim to have inherited the mantle of the British Empire in West Asia. All this time that has been the US itself, in an uncontested position. However, there is another contender for this mantle: India.

6) Of all nations, therefore, the US will be MOST disposed to resist attempts by India to extend influence into West Asia. China is considered too far away to pose a real threat, Djibouti notwithstanding. Russia can be held off in the northern Levant (where it is fighting a defensive war for its toe-hold at Tartous) and would find it very difficult to extend towards the Gulf and Arabian Peninsula. Turkey and Iran can be managed. But India has the potential to displace the USA from West Asia altogether.


Please understand that I'm NOT saying "we should not consider acting proactively/aggressively", "we should dhoti shiver and evacuate our folks", "that is all we are good for".


What I am saying is: IF we decide to do anything like this i.e. establishing a military presence in Qatar, we are going directly toe-to-toe with the biggest dog of them all. Meaning, we better be completely ready for the kind of fight we are getting into. Buss.

one must recall what the US did to help its friend the shah of iran - a regime deemed so important it was given the F-14 fighters and other stuff no other asian ally could hope to get. stuff of TSPs wet dreams.


Again saar, khajoor to oranges. Shah of Iran had been getting too big for his boots (from US perspective) since 1973 (energy crisis) onwards. He had been trying to set himself up as a power player (via domination of OPEC) in competition with the US. He had also been flirting with the USSR, in the mid-late 1970s. Despite his bum-chumming with Washington in earlier decades, he had reached the point where he "had to go".

Look at what happened after the Shah was thrown out. Iran's identity used to be Persianate, but not very focused on Shia Islam. There was a good chance, in those heady years when OPEC was first experiencing its power as an oil bloc, that Pehlavi Iran could have come together with Saudi Arabia and dominated West Asia altogether. Once Shah was replaced by mad Shiite Ayatollahs, Iran effectively became a "Pakistan" to Sunni Saudi/GCCs "India" if you follow my analogy. Net net, the Iranian revolution of 1979 was not a bad thing for US geostrategy in the region. Only Israel freaked out about it, and had to be assuaged.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions (YEMEN, gulf)

Postby JE Menon » 24 Jun 2017 01:24

The Indian relationship with the GCC countries is deeply symbiotic and intertwined. There is no way we are going for a wholesale evacuation of citizens from the area in the event of war. If we did that, and if the threat was from outside the GCC, then it would effectively mean that we are fighting on the adversary's side. The entire area will collapse from one day to the next if all Indians leave. Indians are working there because they make money more than they think they can make in India itself (i.e. a rational decision for the most part - though there are cases of deceptive hiring and so on).

If my memory serves, this is one of the first things we started discussing with the Americans after the collapse of the Soviet Union. I think talks started in 1993. The idea is that we will "take more responsibility" for the security and stability of the area, although it is subject entirely to our interpretation. Nevertheless, there have been numerous defence agreements signed with all the countries of the GCC since then, if I remember correctly.

However, this is one of the areas where the strategic aspects of the relationship are basically invisible. These countries themselves reveal nothing, and neither do we.

Our concern as a government though, as I understand it, is primarily for the safety and security of our citizens there. That comes first, and if there is a threat to their lives government will act. Then, it depends on what the agreements that we have signed require. I think we will stick to the letter. There is much more "respect" from the GCC for India now, than in the past. Not that it matters.

We can be clear about one thing: no GCC government will want to have their Indians leave en masse. Having said that, if they go apeshit amongst each other - which I'm sorry to say looks likely - then the cards are up in the air. But I'm 100% certain GoI has contingencies planned. May need some dusting though.

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Re: Scenario: Return of Indian Nationals from Middle East due

Postby ramana » 24 Jun 2017 05:46

X-Posting to revive this thread....

ramana wrote:
Karthik S wrote:
Aside, this ME conflict will create huge problems for us. Where will people get employment and livelihood.




In January, I had posted an email from RamaY who asked the forum to discuss who to repatriate the Indian workers in Gulf as the turmoil is increasing and the population has to be properly assimilated in Indian context as some of them have lived too long aboard. And a few could be radicalized.

What I got was derision and people took umbrage at posting the message of a banned member.

Now it is real and how to accommodate 650K Indian expatriates from Qatar?
IB and RAW will also have a tough time.

My view is to accept all ideas as feedback and deal with them on its merits and not be biased about where it came from. Had we continued the discussion by now we would be ahead of the curve so to speak.

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Re: Scenario: Return of Indian Nationals from Middle East due

Postby yensoy » 24 Jun 2017 08:27

^^^^ was just going to say the same.

Sometimes it helps to be ambiguous or to manage the problem at a distance. See for instance the Indian reluctance in trying to extradite Zakir Naik. What good is it going to serve by bringing him to India? He has his supporters here and they are known trouble makers. The evidence against him may be weak. Better he stays abroad and does his sh!t over there instead of bringing him here, ensuring his security and briyani for a long period together with the media circus and Ms Roy's crocodile tears.

Now if we bring back a million expats, what are they going to do? Probably make babies and cause trouble. Better we be ambiguous, let the situation resolve itself. If the situation gets unbearable, send some ships and aircraft, get the headlines, appear as a "big power". Otherwise fly below the radar.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions (YEMEN, gulf)

Postby Karthik S » 24 Jun 2017 08:44

Rudradev wrote:
Singha wrote:^^ they stood down like meek sheep while Erdogans goons romped all over Incirlik and arrested dozens of pilots incl the base commander.


Saar that is comparing khajoor vs. oranges.

Erdogan's goons were the Turkish govt. The pilots arrested were Turkish AF people who had supported the failed coup. And all of this was happening in Turkey. No sovereignty issue, in fact it could have been a sovereignty violation for US forces at Incirlik to prevent it from happening.

Contrast this to Indian armed forces mounting an expedition to cordon off an area of Qatar, whose territorial integrity/sovereignty are guaranteed by the US presence at Al Udeid.

they will do what is needed to preserve their own backsides and political interests.


Exactly, and what are those political interests?

Would the Americans like to see India taking over a piece of territory in as strategic a location as Qatar... no matter what we say the reason is... and occupying that territory with an open-ended and long-term military presence?

I think we need to look at the 30,000 foot view of the US' framework of understanding/confronting those whom they see as "imperial players" in West Asia.

Few quick points on this:

1) From a long-term and global perspective, India is very high up in the US' threat matrix. We may be third or even second from the top of their list of long-term competitors/adversaries. Boxing us in is very important.

2) If we establish a military presence in Qatar we are reaching outside "the box" that America is prepared to "allow" us in its Pax Americana schema (the way it parcels the world into what it considers to be "legitimate" and "illegitimate" spheres of influence of different lesser powers).

3) In West Asia (see Robert Kaplan amongst many others) the US considers Iran and Turkey to have "legitimate" historical claims as local imperial states, and expects them to have a stake in expanding their spheres of influence in the region. This does not mean the US is happy to see Iran or Turkey expand their influence in West Asia, but that it recognizes their inherent compulsions to do so, and accounts for these compulsions when drawing up its own long-term strategy.

4) However, in West Asia, the US recognizes only one "legitimate" imperial power in addition to Turkey and Iran. That power is: whoever has inherited the mantle of the British Empire. (Don't give me gaalis for saying this, I am merely stating how the Americans view the world, not agreeing with their view).

5) Obviously there can only be one power that can legitimately claim to have inherited the mantle of the British Empire in West Asia. All this time that has been the US itself, in an uncontested position. However, there is another contender for this mantle: India.

6) Of all nations, therefore, the US will be MOST disposed to resist attempts by India to extend influence into West Asia. China is considered too far away to pose a real threat, Djibouti notwithstanding. Russia can be held off in the northern Levant (where it is fighting a defensive war for its toe-hold at Tartous) and would find it very difficult to extend towards the Gulf and Arabian Peninsula. Turkey and Iran can be managed. But India has the potential to displace the USA from West Asia altogether.


Please understand that I'm NOT saying "we should not consider acting proactively/aggressively", "we should dhoti shiver and evacuate our folks", "that is all we are good for".


What I am saying is: IF we decide to do anything like this i.e. establishing a military presence in Qatar, we are going directly toe-to-toe with the biggest dog of them all. Meaning, we better be completely ready for the kind of fight we are getting into. Buss.

one must recall what the US did to help its friend the shah of iran - a regime deemed so important it was given the F-14 fighters and other stuff no other asian ally could hope to get. stuff of TSPs wet dreams.


Again saar, khajoor to oranges. Shah of Iran had been getting too big for his boots (from US perspective) since 1973 (energy crisis) onwards. He had been trying to set himself up as a power player (via domination of OPEC) in competition with the US. He had also been flirting with the USSR, in the mid-late 1970s. Despite his bum-chumming with Washington in earlier decades, he had reached the point where he "had to go".

Look at what happened after the Shah was thrown out. Iran's identity used to be Persianate, but not very focused on Shia Islam. There was a good chance, in those heady years when OPEC was first experiencing its power as an oil bloc, that Pehlavi Iran could have come together with Saudi Arabia and dominated West Asia altogether. Once Shah was replaced by mad Shiite Ayatollahs, Iran effectively became a "Pakistan" to Sunni Saudi/GCCs "India" if you follow my analogy. Net net, the Iranian revolution of 1979 was not a bad thing for US geostrategy in the region. Only Israel freaked out about it, and had to be assuaged.


You've presented entirely "how khan would feel" point of view. Not one suggestion about how should we tackle it to protect our people. If KSA invades Qatar, and a war breaks out, you really think our having a base or not in one corner of the country would be the most worrying thing for khan? How about we assuage any worries on their part by saying we are your ally, anyway they are supplying weapons to both the parties alike, how about we do a billion dollar business deal with DT as a quid pro quo to "buy" our presence there? I don't think any country will try to stop us beyond a point, when we have a clear case that we have our people to look after, we are not going there with an expansionist mindset.

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Re: Scenario: Return of Indian Nationals from Middle East due

Postby Rudradev » 24 Jun 2017 09:54

Not my job to provide you with suggestions for a policy you consider preferable to evacuation. Onus is on you to figure out (in realistic terms) how you would "tackle it", if you are the one proposing it.

If I have inconvenienced you by pointing out that the US will see any move by India (or China or Russia) to project military power into the Gulf as a threat to its interests, too bad. Saying "I don't think they will try to stop us" is wishful thinking, and no strategist worth his salt would hang a plan on such an assumption. If you want India to go in and occupy a piece of Qatar you have to prepare for all contingencies, including how "khan would feel" and potentially react. You cannot wish them away.

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Re: Scenario: Return of Indian Nationals from Middle East due

Postby chetak » 24 Jun 2017 10:14

Rudradev wrote:Not my job to provide you with suggestions for a policy you consider preferable to evacuation. Onus is on you to figure out (in realistic terms) how you would "tackle it", if you are the one proposing it.

If I have inconvenienced you by pointing out that the US will see any move by India (or China or Russia) to project military power into the Gulf as a threat to its interests, too bad. Saying "I don't think they will try to stop us" is wishful thinking, and no strategist worth his salt would hang a plan on such an assumption. If you want India to go in and occupy a piece of Qatar you have to prepare for all contingencies, including how "khan would feel" and potentially react. You cannot wish them away.


not to mention that this is a major pissing contest that we want no part of.

the minimum requirement is boots on the ground with the resulting and invariably attendant body bags.

these camel humpers are just not worth it.

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Re: Scenario: Return of Indian Nationals from Middle East due

Postby Singha » 24 Jun 2017 10:25

small dogs just howl
big dogs quietly plan and then bite

the GCC region has to collared and controlled by india if we want to be #2 in the world and eventually #1.
there is nowhere else with so much oil and gas unless you want to invade CONUS or Russia.

I am tired of this "future #3" promises as if the 1 and 2 are reserved by God for someone else.

as such its the US+UK which is the usurper and intruder in that region and not india, persia or ottomans who all have long standing interests in managing that place. other than sitting atop the oil wells with a gun they have NO historical, cultural or security stakes in that region. let us also disrupt this well set game and join the party. loot and plunder cannot be made into virtues extolled about in the texts. progress begins when we (a) are clear on where we want to go (b) are honest about our mistakes

india has to choose between being a permanent kutta vassal (give us tot, give us h1/l1/f1, give us burger king) or pursueing her own long term interests.

Image

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Re: Scenario: Return of Indian Nationals from Middle East due

Postby Karthik S » 24 Jun 2017 10:27

Rudradev wrote:Not my job to provide you with suggestions for a policy you consider preferable to evacuation. Onus is on you to figure out (in realistic terms) how you would "tackle it", if you are the one proposing it.

If I have inconvenienced you by pointing out that the US will see any move by India (or China or Russia) to project military power into the Gulf as a threat to its interests, too bad. Saying "I don't think they will try to stop us" is wishful thinking, and no strategist worth his salt would hang a plan on such an assumption. If you want India to go in and occupy a piece of Qatar you have to prepare for all contingencies, including how "khan would feel" and potentially react. You cannot wish them away.


:lol: I am not saying it's your job to suggest policy or tell others how US will feel. You brought in a new angle as to how khan would react to us trying to protect our citizens. I am not wishing them away, any strategy involving our military presence will undoubtedly take into considering all that. But again, we have 6L people there who will be caught up in the fight, and they should be our first priority. Fortunately, KSA has strategic depth, therefore our people can find temporary accommodation without need of the much of our presence, but that's not the case with a tiny country like Qatar. Also, there are so many ways depending on how situation is that we can sort out any apprehensions of any big dog, mind you there are many business and strategic interests involved between our two countries elsewhere.

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Re: Scenario: Return of Indian Nationals from Middle East due

Postby Javee » 24 Jun 2017 12:43

Take it with a pinch of salt, as it's from Kaleej times,

Expatriates working for Qatar Petroleum and other organisations said on Thursday their employers had cancelled holidays and barred them from leaving Qatar.

http://m.khaleejtimes.com/region/qatar- ... ral-expats

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Re: Scenario: Return of Indian Nationals from Middle East due

Postby Deans » 24 Jun 2017 15:52

I'm not sure why there should be so much talk on evacuating our nationals. Even if we assume (though I don't agree) that there will be a war, the average expat worker is at no greater risk than the average Qatari national. Te risk may even be less, because Qatari nationals have more visible assets to target. Why do we have to give the impression to the host country that we (Indians) will leave at the first sign of trouble ? This is a good opportunity for expats to express support for Qatar by staying put - and saving their jobs. I don't see demand for expats being reduced, whatever the shape the future govt of Qatar might take.
Even in GW1, with a million men involved in combat around Kuwait, were any expats actually killed ? Do we know if all the Indian nationals who were evacuated got their jobs back ?

This will be a good opportunity for GOI and banks to get expats to put their savings in Indian banks and invest those savings productively (not in gold or real estate) to guard against any sudden loss in income. Why not get insurance companies to sell policies protecting expats from job losses in case of conflict. Specific to Qatar, it might be a good idea for Govt to say that they will ensure food supplies to their nationals. That will reassure both our expats and the Qatar govt while allowing Saudi to retain H&D.

Evacuations would be necessary in cases like Yemen & Libya, where there was a descent into anarchy but Qatar is a long way from that.

P.S - I've been an expat myself.

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Re: Scenario: Return of Indian Nationals from Middle East due

Postby chanakyaa » 25 Jun 2017 07:45

Not sure how realistic this could be, but just a thought. If we can take a lead with SAARC satellite, why not here.

SAARC (ex-porkie) Expat Security Co-operation Framework

While chewing on the post by RD, I was wondering if there is any way to circumvent perceived threat by uncle of India’s advances, if chosen, in the West Asia. Regardless of what uncle thinks of its birth right to be exclusively in West Asia, now or in the future, the presence of Indians in the region in significantly large numbers is a FACT and a REALITY that GoI has to deal with, regardless of what wyest thinks its interests in the region. As rightly pointed out, any hard or soft military presence in the region by India will be viewed by uncle as a threat. Can this perception be tackled by making this presence non-military (wink wink) and by including other SAARC countries (ex-porkies) or SAARC+ (ex-porkies) with Philippines. A broader coalition may be easier to make a strong case for a co-operative regional presence, in the interest of its population. Why a coalition? The challenge of dealing with expats is not unique to India, if you look at following numbers.

Qatar:
India (25%), Bangladesh (%), Lanka (%), Nepal (%), Philippines (%) => Total (70%)

Shitty Barbaria:
India (8%), Bangladesh (3.5%), Lanka (1%), Nepal (1%), Philippines (4%) => Total (17.5%)

UAE:
India (28%), Bangladesh (7.3%), Lanka (3.2%), Nepal (3.2%), Philippines (6%) => Total (47.7%)

Oman:
India (40%), Bangladesh (31%), Lanka (1%), Nepal (0%), Philippines (2%) => Total (74%)

Under this framework, the countries will work with the host country to (just to name a few),
1. ensure safety and security of its population in the normal course of business (much like regular counselor services)
2. In case of an armed conflict or local instability, secure local relocations using de-escalation zones protected by host countries’ military and para-military forces of the coalition.
3. secure food and other aid transport corridors in case of armed conflict
4. protect physical and movable assets of the coalition’s population
5. And, as a last resort, prepare for complete relocation of its citizens

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Re: Scenario: Return of Indian Nationals from Middle East due

Postby Deans » 25 Jun 2017 17:55

Chanakyaa, The problem with the proposed framework is that in a crisis, all the heavy lifting will have to be done by India. However, I see a lot of merit in collaborating with other countries in ensuring for e.g. minimum labour standards are adhered to and disreputable employers are blacklisted by all member countries.

The real problems for Indian in the Gulf begins at the time of recruitment (large fees & wrong job descriptions). Why not let GOI be the coordinating recruitment agency in India for all Gulf jobs offered by Govt or Govt owned enterprises. This will have the following advantages:
- Gulf firm does not have to pay a brokerage to Indian agents and they will get properly qualified applicants.
- Candidates don't have to pay heavy fees which put families into debt.
- Govt decides where candidates will be recruited from and their backgrounds. (Why should one state and community - which give the Govt no votes, have a disproportionate share of Gulf jobs ?) It would be a politically shrewd move if GOI says that jobs will be offered in for e.g. the poorest 100 districts in India.
- India should use this to actively target jobs currently held by non Indians, by a subsidy. (pay a Gulf company for every incremental job offered
to an Indian and currently held by a non Indian).

At the same time, blacklist any Indian firm in the Gulf from doing business in India, if they hire Pakistanis in the Gulf. Have a whistle-blower scheme to encourage employees to report cases. Any Indian company which does business in the Gulf, will have to give a declaration that they do not hire any Pakistani nationals. This can be couched in politically correct language by saying that companies having nationals of certain countries on their rolls, will need MHA security clearance.

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Re: Scenario: Return of Indian Nationals from Middle East due

Postby ldev » 25 Jun 2017 18:41

This is the biggest failing for India i.e. the inability to provide gainful employment to all it's citizens within the boundaries of India. I dont think there is any other country in the world which is as vulnerable by having so many millions of it's citizens being forced to work outside India because the country cannot provide employment. Where is the population dividend that people talk about, rather it is a population liability.Rather than "Make in India" as a slogan for this Government, the slogan should be " Employment for all in India". With the objective of providing employment for all in India, Make in India will automatically follow. That will reduce India's vulnerability to outside pressure. Imagine a scenario where India does not have to make nice to all the Gulf States because millions of laborers have found employment in India, where Modi does not have to go cap in hand to the US just so that H1B visas continue to be provided to Indian nationals.

Yes there is an immediate need to come up with plans for evacuating nationals from the Gulf, but the long term strategy has to be eliminate that vulnerability.Nationals of middle income countries which India aspires to be generally go outside their country in support of operations of their own home grown companies, whether it is the South Koreans or even China now. India has to follow that model or a similar model suited for India's own requirements.

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Re: Scenario: Return of Indian Nationals from Middle East due

Postby Deans » 25 Jun 2017 21:49

ldev wrote:This is the biggest failing for India i.e. the inability to provide gainful employment to all it's citizens within the boundaries of India. I dont think there is any other country in the world which is as vulnerable by having so many millions of it's citizens being forced to work outside India because the country cannot provide employment. Where is the population dividend that people talk about, rather it is a population liability.Rather than "Make in India" as a slogan for this Government, the slogan should be " Employment for all in India". With the objective of providing employment for all in India, Make in India will automatically follow. That will reduce India's vulnerability to outside pressure. Imagine a scenario where India does not have to make nice to all the Gulf States because millions of laborers have found employment in India, where Modi does not have to go cap in hand to the US just so that H1B visas continue to be provided to Indian nationals.


Actually in a population of 1.2 billion, having 15 million expat workers (1.25 %) is not at all high. All our neighbors have a far higher expat
population, as does China. 8% of the UK's citizens (almost 5 million) live abroad. For Poland it is 20% & Georgia 30% The latter 2 are among the
most promising and fast growing economies in Europe.

Thanks to the IT lobby there is, IMO, too much attention paid to H1B. It is a non issue in the overall context of Indian employment (or even IT employment) and India-US ties.

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Re: Scenario: Return of Indian Nationals from Middle East due

Postby chanakyaa » 25 Jun 2017 22:32

ldev wrote:...Where is the population dividend that people talk about, rather it is a population liability.Rather than "Make in India" as a slogan for this Government, the slogan should be " Employment for all in India". With the objective of providing employment for all in India, Make in India will automatically follow...

Err, sir ji, it is a chicken or egg dilemma. You can't have work/employment if there is no one to produce a product or sell service. For that you need to "make/produce" in India first; and then to "make" it, there will be a need for workers/employment. When did creating employment become government's job? Population dividend is there rock solid, we are not exploiting it enough. But that is a subject for another thread.

Dean sir, I do get your comment on keeping tab w.r.t. Gulf and Employment. As a former expat in the UAE, I do understand what it means when your passport is taken away and you need to reach out to scoundrels in the Hooman resource dept to get it for basic legal purposes. But, IMHO what you are recommending is way way too much micro-management task for the GoI to take on. If the GoI bureaucracy is expected to be so good at administration across the border dealing with foreign employers, wouldn't you expect them to be already good, timely, and effective at implementing of Indian Penal Code at home. Looks like the task is better in hands of some semi-governmental body.

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Re: Scenario: Return of Indian Nationals from Middle East due

Postby Deans » 25 Jun 2017 23:29

Chankayaa ji, yes it is too big a task for GOI to handle competently. But the selection of candidates can be outsourced to for e.g. Ex servicemen's bureaus (for hiring their kids), recommendations can be accepted from district BJP/ RSS cells etc. (Of course, officially, govt will accept recommendations from all sources).

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Re: Scenario: Return of Indian Nationals from Middle East due

Postby Deans » 25 Jun 2017 23:30

Chankayaa ji, yes it is too big a task for GOI to handle competently. But the selection of candidates can be outsourced to for e.g. Ex servicemen's bureaus (for hiring their kids), recommendations can be accepted from district BJP/ RSS cells etc. (Of course, officially, govt will accept recommendations from all sources).One has to set audacious goals to be able to generate lacs of additional jobs each year.
I've been CEO of an organisation where I've actively hired kids of serving or ex servicemen. The problem has been an agency that will give us
such candidates.

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Re: Scenario: Return of Indian Nationals from Middle East due

Postby ldev » 26 Jun 2017 03:57

Deans wrote:Actually in a population of 1.2 billion, having 15 million expat workers (1.25 %) is not at all high. All our neighbors have a far higher expat population, as does China. 8% of the UK's citizens (almost 5 million) live abroad. For Poland it is 20% & Georgia 30% The latter 2 are among the
most promising and fast growing economies in Europe.

Thanks to the IT lobby there is, IMO, too much attention paid to H1B. It is a non issue in the overall context of Indian employment (or even IT employment) and India-US ties.


The problem is that even 1.25% in India's case adds up to 15 million workers, most of them poor laborers in the Gulf, a volatile part of the world. One cannot compare Indian workers in the Gulf to British nationals overseas, most of them in the EU and a significant portion of that living retired lives in warm climates such as the south of Spain. Similarly Poles are mostly working in the EU as allowed by the EU single market. Where are mainland Chinese nationals working for third country employers in numbers comparable to Indians working in the Gulf? AFAIK nowadays most of the Chinese working overseas go to implement projects funded by China and executed by Chinese companies i.e. Africa, Latin America.

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Re: Scenario: Return of Indian Nationals from Middle East due

Postby ramana » 08 Nov 2017 00:14

I think Saudi Arabia is descending into chaos and GOI needs to plan for more KSA returnees.

Glad we started this thread a year back to chronicle this return of the expatriates....

atma wrote:
SSridhar wrote:
I would say that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is lurching towards instability.
The implication for India would be two fold. One, the access to fossil fuel if the refineries and ports there are shut or attacked. Two, there is still a large number of Indians working there though in recent times many have returned. A nasty situation might lead to another of the non-combatant evacuation operation (NEO) for the IN. In earlier times, a difficult situation for KSA would have had a similar impact on Pakistan too; but, in current circumstances, one doubts it.


Instability in SA under MBS would likely trickle into the Gulf Sheikdoms, especially the UAE, which has a huge Indian expat population, a huge exodus from the area (SA + other GCC countries), in the long term would have a economic impact ( loss of remittances) on the Indian economy as well.

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Re: Scenario: Return of Indian Nationals from Middle East due

Postby ramana » 20 Nov 2019 21:34

X-Post...
Rony wrote:12,223 Indians died abroad in 2018-2019: RTI revelation

A whopping 12,223 Indian nationals have died in various foreign countries in 17 months between January 2018 and May 2019, according to an RTI reply given by the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA).

This comes to a shocking average of 719 Indians per month or 23-24 per day, who have lost their lives in distant lands during the period under review, said Mumbai-based RTI activist Jatin Desai.

Desai said that he had actually filed a query with the Ministry of Home Affairs in October seeking the details of Indian nationals who have died in foreign prisons, and foreigners who have died in Indian jails during the 18-month period between January 2018 and June 2019.

However, the query was transferred to the Ministry of External Affairs from where T. Ajungla Jamir, Director (CPV) and CPIO, sent a reply to Desai last week mentioning the number of Indians who lost their lives abroad between January 2018 and May 2019.

"Surprisingly, the MEA has no information on how many Indian prisoners have died in jails abroad in the said period. The MEA also does not have details of the number of foreigners perishing in Indian prisons during that period," Desai told IANS.

Desai said that he now plans to file fresh RTI queries seeking the details of causes of deaths, whether the deceased were tourists, NRIs, business travellers or belonged to other categories, and if required follow up with other measures.

"We also need to know in which countries they have died and whether they lost their lives due to some illnesses, accidents, attacks in foreign lands or sheer lack of medicare, and whether they were adequately insured or if they were granted compensation in case of unnatural deaths when their bodies were returned, etc.," Desai said.

Contending that the revealation could open up a Pandora's Box and Indians need to be warned about this, Desai said, "We also need to know from which states these Indians have travelled and for what purpose/duration, and the kind of assistance they secured from Indian embassies/consulates abroad when they were in distress."

He also urged the members of different political parties to raise the issue in the winter session of Parliament since it is an extremely serious matter concerning the people of India travelling abroad.

According to Desai, if this is the average figures of deaths of Indians abroad, then other issues like foreign travel insurance, the role of travel companies or tour operators, both in India and the host countries, precautions to be taken during foreign travel etc. would come into the picture in a big way and the government must take adequate measures in this regard.

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Re: Status of Indian Nationals abroad

Postby ramana » 05 May 2020 10:33

Time to revisit this thread started nearly 4 years ago. It was derided by quite a few stalwarts.

Right today India is sending 14 Warships to evacuate nationals from Gulf countries.

https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1257506739467018240?s=19

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Re: Status of Indian Nationals abroad

Postby vimal » 05 May 2020 10:53

That seems like a very dangerous thing to do given how thin our navy already is stretched.

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Re: Status of Indian Nationals abroad

Postby ramana » 05 May 2020 11:51

What do you suggest then?
Easy to say whatever govt is doing is bad or risky!

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Re: Status of Indian Nationals abroad

Postby vimal » 05 May 2020 11:58

How bout opening international flight to operate on these specific routes so that people can self-evacuate. Whats the need to send warships?

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Re: Status of Indian Nationals abroad

Postby chetak » 05 May 2020 12:06

vimal wrote:How bout opening international flight to operate on these specific routes so that people can self-evacuate. Whats the need to send warships?


local airlines are anyway itching to fly, so why not allow them to do this job and charge for it.

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Re: Scenario: Return of Indian Nationals from Middle East due

Postby yensoy » 05 May 2020 12:24

ldev wrote:This is the biggest failing for India i.e. the inability to provide gainful employment to all it's citizens within the boundaries of India. I dont think there is any other country in the world which is as vulnerable by having so many millions of it's citizens being forced to work outside India because the country cannot provide employment.

I will take it a step further. It is the inability of states of the union to provide gainful employment within their boundaries which is causing a huge amount of migrant labour. While there should be no limits to internal migration as espoused in the constitution, the fact remains that there is a huge geographical imbalance between labour and industry which is biting us at this point in time. Wish the enlightened CMs of labour surplus states such as Orissa, Bihar, Jharkhand, UP, Assam are able to relocate some of the industries (especially the lower tech ones which don't require strong local supply chains) to their states and keep jobs there.

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Re: Status of Indian Nationals abroad

Postby schinnas » 05 May 2020 16:52

The airfare is not free. GoI is going to charge the travelers at cost.

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Re: Scenario: Return of Indian Nationals from Middle East due

Postby mappunni » 05 May 2020 19:17

yensoy wrote:
ldev wrote:This is the biggest failing for India i.e. the inability to provide gainful employment to all it's citizens within the boundaries of India. I dont think there is any other country in the world which is as vulnerable by having so many millions of it's citizens being forced to work outside India because the country cannot provide employment.

I will take it a step further. It is the inability of states of the union to provide gainful employment within their boundaries which is causing a huge amount of migrant labour. While there should be no limits to internal migration as espoused in the constitution, the fact remains that there is a huge geographical imbalance between labour and industry which is biting us at this point in time. Wish the enlightened CMs of labour surplus states such as Orissa, Bihar, Jharkhand, UP, Assam are able to relocate some of the industries (especially the lower tech ones which don't require strong local supply chains) to their states and keep jobs there.


Add the superliterate Kerala where the Pseudo Commies are busying lining their pockets and have no industries whatsoever worth its name. I expect a huge surge is Jihadi activities in Kerala post 120k people coming back. I hope the same Jihadis who have busy doxing out folks are treated in kind when they are back.

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Re: Status of Indian Nationals abroad

Postby vimal » 05 May 2020 22:07

schinnas wrote:The airfare is not free. GoI is going to charge the travelers at cost.

Airfare? On warships?

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Re: Status of Indian Nationals abroad

Postby vishvak » 05 May 2020 22:46

Some flights to bring back people in distress by MEA
Flight plan by MEA: Priority will be given to "compelling cases in distress"

https://indianexpress.com/article/india ... 4513/lite/

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Re: Status of Indian Nationals abroad

Postby ramana » 06 May 2020 07:59

vimal wrote:
schinnas wrote:The airfare is not free. GoI is going to charge the travelers at cost.

Airfare? On warships?


No. On the flight from Europe and the US.
Its 25K and 50K respectively.

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Re: Status of Indian Nationals abroad

Postby darshan » 06 May 2020 08:57

Hopefully they're coordinating with other countries to take their citizens back to reduce expenses. There are many US nationals who want to head back but land at places other than Atlanta and San Francisco.

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Re: Status of Indian Nationals abroad

Postby ramana » 07 May 2020 04:23

Operation Samudra Setu to repatriate 1.8 million Indians from West Asia.

https://twitter.com/kanimozhi/status/12 ... 94181?s=19

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Re: Status of Indian Nationals abroad

Postby ramana » 07 May 2020 20:49

At least do post news covering the massive evacuation here!!!


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