Understanding the United States of America (USA) - III

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 16 Oct 2016 19:32

Some of his best moment's have been when he has talked about policy

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 16 Oct 2016 19:50

Things must be really bad if Breitbart poll has Trump down by 4 in Florida, a state that he CANNOT afford to loose. Interestingly, Murphy isn't really making up ground as Trump falls - Most likely a shift of the hispanic (GOP leaning cuban americans in south florida) vote along with the educated white vote deserting Trump (but apparently not the GOP).

Florida has seen a big increase in Puerto Rico residents in the last few years as PR is in an economic crisis. PR citizens are US citizens, but can't vote unless they live in the states. There are also fewer native Floridians as many come from the NE US. Even Trump has a residence in south Florida. It is one of a handful US states which doesn't have a property tax.

I never thought Trump would have a chance in Florida.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 16 Oct 2016 19:54

The senate races are far more interesting. close to 4 or 5 that can go either way. Not if trump drags them down with him.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 16 Oct 2016 19:59

Gus wrote:"Trump was prevented from talking policy"
That's a good one

Nice to see the happiness, but watch the first and second questions from the nasty woman ~~Moderator~~ Extremist to see what I mean. That was where the debate started its rapid plunge into kindergarten.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 16 Oct 2016 20:09

UlanBatori wrote: Nice to see the happiness, but watch the first and second questions from the nasty woman ~~Moderator~~ Extremist to see what I mean. That was where the debate started its rapid plunge into kindergarten.

nasty? why? did she grab him by the dick?

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 16 Oct 2016 20:11

Nah! That would have been sooo Clinton-era, hain? And it wasn't even in the Ovary Office!

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 16 Oct 2016 20:12

Mort Walker wrote:
Things must be really bad if Breitbart poll has Trump down by 4 in Florida, a state that he CANNOT afford to loose. Interestingly, Murphy isn't really making up ground as Trump falls - Most likely a shift of the hispanic (GOP leaning cuban americans in south florida) vote along with the educated white vote deserting Trump (but apparently not the GOP).
Florida has seen a big increase in Puerto Rico residents in the last few years as PR is in an economic crisis. PR citizens are US citizens, but can't vote unless they live in the states. There are also fewer native Floridians as many come from the NE US. Even Trump has a residence in south Florida. It is one of a handful US states which doesn't have a property tax.

I never thought Trump would have a chance in Florida.

Trump has made GOP's demographics problem worst despite claiming to win the AA and HA GE support during the primaries. FL is actually sill quite competitive for the GOP (different from Trump) unlike VA, and CO that seem to be slipping away from them in the presidential-elections..Had they actually fielded a candidate that was broadly electable, and didn't have to rely on winning the war of attrition with HRC they would have most probably carried FL and possibly even VA. NC would also would not have been competitive and wouldn't have been taking about GA and AZ being swing states given the anti-incumbency factor..

Similarly, if the Dems had put a half decent candidate when it came to likability, track record or honesty we wouldn't even be taking about polls right now. Even a Biden would have wiped the floor with Trump.

Trump has made Utah into a 'maybe' for the GOP and we may even see an independent in the Electoral College for the first time in decades (I think since 1968).

http://www.salon.com/2016/10/14/donald- ... y-clinton/

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 16 Oct 2016 20:25

OTOH, the Libertarian slate, BOTH 2-term governors (one of New Mexico, the other of Massacussetts) would have wiped the floor with any Dem candidate if only the idiot elephants had supported them. Can't see why - they had the right combo of original Republican "get govt off our backs" arrogance and wackiness (750 gubernatorial vetos!!) and Massachussetts liberal capitalism - wasn't that the guy that actually implemented the template for Obamacare? Instead they languish with hopeless 5% (unanimous support in Ulan Bator, BTW).

Learn to say "Madam President Clinton" and grovel. Invest in a burkha and a couple of Books.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 16 Oct 2016 20:49

Ah, for once, something very close to the BR heart:

Donald Trump's 'rigged' election claim targets the media

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 16 Oct 2016 21:24

ballot box stuffing, voter intimidation, goonda giri, fire and brimstone speeches, dead people voting, caste/race/religion block vote, corrupt officials, venal politicians, (f)rigging in the rigging, (f)rigging in the rigging...

why yamreeka seems to be just like any decent democracy these days!

Hu needs that?!? let them emulate erdo and ping and vlad the bad... lets make america dictate again!

(getting my popcorn and beer out)

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 16 Oct 2016 21:26

I think these are ALL false claims. All u need is simple electronic voting machines with BlueTooth.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 16 Oct 2016 21:27

saar - all you need is a couple of decent candidates...

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 16 Oct 2016 21:57

Old Malloostani saying: Take ek lakh beebals, those with vision or any clue may be ek ya do. Here it is 300 million vs. Zerrow. But take heart: Their VP choices are equally bad as well.

Suresh S · Post by **Suresh S** » 16 Oct 2016 22:06

Lalmohan wrote:ballot box stuffing, voter intimidation, goonda giri, fire and brimstone speeches, dead people voting, caste/race/religion block vote, corrupt officials, venal politicians, (f)rigging in the rigging, (f)rigging in the rigging...

why yamreeka seems to be just like any decent democracy these days!

Hu needs that?!? let them emulate erdo and ping and vlad the bad... lets make america dictate again!

(getting my popcorn and beer out)

That is what happens when u allow the "J" train to enter your territory

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 17 Oct 2016 01:03

Maher's fear about what Trump will do if he loses

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 17 Oct 2016 01:26

http://www.inquisitr.com/3599592/donald ... e/taboola/

mohit priyadarshi (sikular MUTU alert ) . Plainly targets hindus in his above farticle.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 17 Oct 2016 05:27

This is Mr. Trump.

Donald Trump's brand is 'plummeting,' biographer says

His bank estimated him to be worth $7-800 mil in 2004? When he claimed to be worth between $2-5 billion?

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 17 Oct 2016 05:42

Think about it: the guy LIVES. If he wanted to, he would stuff his 800 million into bank FDs and sit around happy, groping, kissing, whatever. But he plunges it all into new deals, and is willing to risk a billion, to make 4.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 17 Oct 2016 05:45

It's started already:

Washington (CNN)A GOP office in Hillsborough, North Carolina, was firebombed overnight, with a swastika and the words "Nazi Republicans get out of town or else" spray painted on an adjacent building, according to local officials.
"The flammable substance appears to have ignited inside the building, burned some furniture and damaged the building's interior before going out. The substance was housed in a bottle thrown through one of the building's front windows," according to a statement by the town of Hillsborough.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 17 Oct 2016 17:38

Trump son-in-law makes approach on post-election TV start-up - FT (Subscription)

Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner has informally approached one of the media industry’s top dealmakers about the prospect of setting up a Trump television network after the presidential election in November.

Mr Kushner — an increasingly influential figure in the billionaire’s presidential campaign — contacted Aryeh Bourkoff, the founder and chief executive of LionTree, a boutique investment bank, within the past couple of months, according to three people with knowledge of the matter.

Their conversation was brief and has not progressed since, the people said. Mr Bourkoff and Mr Kushner both declined to comment.

However, the approach suggests Mr Kushner and the Republican candidate himself are thinking about how to capitalise on the populist movement that has sprung up around their campaign in the event of an election defeat to Democrat Hillary Clinton next month.

In an NBC News/Wall Street Journal opinion poll, published this weekend, Mr Trump trailed Mrs Clinton by 11 points nationally.

Mr Trump, whose campaign is headed by populist digital media entrepreneur Stephen Bannon, has denied that he wants to start his own channel. “I have no interest in a media company. False rumour,” he told the Washington Post last month, following a Vanity Fair report that he and his advisers had explored the idea.Mr Bourkoff, who launched LionTree in 2012, has advised on transactions worth more than $300bn, including Liberty Global’s $23.3bn acquisition of Virgin Media and Verizon’s $4.4bn takeover of AOL. He is also John Malone’s favoured adviser and helped the so-called “Cable Cowboy” consolidate the US pay-TV industry — in deals that culminated in Charter Communications’ $78bn takeover of Time Warner Cable this year.

More importantly, Mr Bourkoff is a friend of Mr Kushner, who is married to Mr Trump’s daughter Ivanka. The two have worked together in the past: Mr Bourkoff advised Mr Kushner, who also owns the weekly New York Observer newspaper, when he tried to buy the Los Angeles Dodgers baseball team four years ago.

Establishing a Trump television network would be difficult, even with a potentially large audience for its programming.

Cable and satellite companies are loath to take on extra channels in an era of shrinking audiences and “cord-cutting” — the cancellation of pricey pay-TV subscriptions in favour of cheaper, online alternatives. An “over the top” digital service would be one possibility but still costly because Mr Trump and Mr Kushner would need to spend heavily on marketing, talent and technology.Roger Ailes, the former head of Rupert Murdoch’s Fox News Channel, is a friend of Mr Trump’s but would be prohibited from working on a Trump television venture by the terms of his exit agreement with the news network. He parted company with Fox this summer following an independent investigation into claims he sexually harassed Gretchen Carlson, a former Fox News presenter.

However, Sean Hannity, Mr Trump’s biggest cheerleader on Fox News, would be free to work for a prospective Trump network. Mr Hannity was among several Fox stars, including Bill O’Reilly, with clauses in their contracts allowing them to leave if Mr Ailes did.

Talk about a Trump network has persisted, partly because of the fervent crowds that Mr Trump continues to attract on the campaign trail and his existing links to conservative media. Mr Bannon, the chairman of Breitbart, a network of rightwing news sites, was hired in August to run the Trump campaign. Breitbart is currently on a global expansion push, with the aim of adding sites in Germany and France to its existing operations in the US and Israel.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 17 Oct 2016 17:48

All The Reasons You Doubt Polls: Motivated Reasoning Strikes Again

Every Presidential election, it happens. People on the side that is heading for a loss find ways to disbelieve what polls are telling them. This year is no different.

First, a tiny dose of cognitive science. Our brains are really good at letting in information that agrees with our prior views – and we look for reasons to reject information that is disagreeable. In a complex media environment, this tendency is deadly. It probably underlies our deep political divisions: getting the agreeable information is very easy. Witness the echo chambers in which dumps of fairly anodyne email from Hillary Clinton take on sinister significance.

People are the same way when they interpret polls. Two past cases come to mind:

In 2004, state polls were dead-on in giving a snapshot of the close race between Senator John Kerry and President George W. Bush. However, Kerry supporters suggested that undecided voters would break toward the challenger. This was a pretty small break, but it was enough because the race was so close that year. As longtime PEC readers know, I made this error.
In 2012, “poll un-skewers” on the Republican side took it upon themselves to correct polls that they felt were demographically unbalanced. The king of the un-skewers was Dean Chambers.
This year, I have heard multiple possible objections to interpreting polls at face value (for example, see this PEC comment thread). Here they are, with my answers.

1. Brexit. It is said, wrongly, that polls missed Brexit. However, that is not true. Pre-election polls indicated that Brexit was too close to call – and there were 9% undecideds. It was pundits and conventional wisdom that failed.

2. The 2014 midterms. This is fair – on average, there was a 5 percentage point error that year. However, as I have analyzed, it is generally the case that in midterm years, which represent a low-turnout condition, polls are terrible. However, general election polls did extremely well in 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2012. I wrote an article about it.

3. “We didn’t think Trump would win the primaries, either.” Erm…speak for yourself. Once again, pundits were wrong – but a poll-based approach was correct before the primaries began, and continued to be correct all the way through the primaries. Go through PEC’s archives and you’ll see.

4. Known unknowns. Will Sanders supporters show up to vote for Clinton? Will Trump bring new voters out of the woodwork, particularly people who don’t necessarily answer the phone for pollsters?

Most of these reasons are already captured in polling data, at least at the state level (national polls aren’t as good). For example, if Sanders supporters have come home to the Democratic nominee, they will be captured in polls. The same is likely to be true of Trump supporters; for example, primary-season polls did very well in predicting Trump support.

The most unmoored form of this argument is that somehow, tons of Trump supporters are simply not captured by polls. Evidence contradicts this speculation. This has not been apparent in voter registrations, so there is no clear place for these voters to come from.

Unpersuaded? Maybe you like that one poll from USC/Dornsife, which has serious weighting problems. If you want to imagine what would happen if your side got a few percentage points, the “Clinton +2%” and “Trump +2%” links at right will show you that.

5. Undecideds and Gary Johnson/Jill Stein supporters. In the past, nearly all of these voters end up supporting one of the two major candidates. For example, Johnson and Stein supporters combined got less than 2% of the vote in 2012. What will they do this year? Below, I estimate the impact.

Currently, undecideds and Johnson/Stein supporters constitute about 14% of voters. Drew Linzer has pointed out that undecideds/minor party supporters are unusually high this year, about 6% ahead of 2008 and 2012. This is a legitimate source of uncertainty about the eventual outcome. However, there is information about how these voters will eventually fall.

Undecided voters usually break somewhat evenly (sorry, 2004 Sam!). Data from SurveyMonkey suggests that Johnson supporters break about evenly between Clinton and Trump, while Stein supporters tilt strongly toward Clinton. This is consistent with many state polls that show Clinton doing the same or slightly better when the matchup is Clinton/Trump compared with Clinton/Trump/Johnson/Stein. So the net expected effect is, on average, slightly toward Clinton*.

The topic of undecided/minor-party support requires more unpacking. I would rate it as the most legitimate concern about prediction. In my estimation it alters the probability by a tiny amount at most.

Anyway, if there’s some hidden reason why polls are all wet, it hasn’t come up yet. If you’re a Trump supporter, it would be more productive to focus on downticket Senate and House races, where your side has a better chance of surviving November.

habal · Post by **habal** » 17 Oct 2016 18:48

I read a report that Obama was abandoned by his drunken bum of a father, his mother was a pronographic film star to make ends meet. It also mentioned that michelle Obama was frequently living in the Jessie Jackson house in Chicago, it hinted that 'she was Jessies favorite little girl'.
If Bill Clinton gets into the white house, it will be full of 12 year old girls giving him "massages".
Sick bunch of trash running the united states.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 17 Oct 2016 19:37

Breaking news from the 'I'm hearing' News Agency and the 'I've read' Post.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 17 Oct 2016 20:13

On a lighter side.

REVEALED: The vast international conspiracy to stop Trump, in one chart

Kannan · Post by **Kannan** » 17 Oct 2016 21:15

habal wrote:I read a report that Obama was abandoned by his drunken bum of a father, his mother was a pronographic film star to make ends meet. It also mentioned that michelle Obama was frequently living in the Jessie Jackson house in Chicago, it hinted that 'she was Jessies favorite little girl'.
If Bill Clinton gets into the white house, it will be full of 12 year old girls giving him "massages".
Sick bunch of trash running the united states.

If you read it on the internet it must be true! Too bad you didn't let the Republicans know ten years ago, they would've paid you good money for this report.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 17 Oct 2016 23:30

NRao wrote:Ah, for once, something very close to the BR heart:

Donald Trump's 'rigged' election claim targets the media

There's a lot of truth to this as US narrative is controlled. In 1990 false reporting and testimony to Congress about Saddam Hussein and Iraqi forces committing atrocities were all the rage in the press.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 17 Oct 2016 23:54

If you exist, you either control or are controlled.

In the 70s, even my US college newspaper was controlled. So, none of these stories that in 2016 news outlets are not independent, etc are providing any value.

The interesting part is, for this particular election, even the Republican news outlets have turned on Trump. Making it appear as though that there is a greater conspiracy going on (than normal election cycles). I have not tracked most Rep news outlets, but the Chicago tribune went to the Libertarian and the Arizona Republican - for the first time ever - went to HRC.

Factor in everything and the picture is not much different than any other election year. The MAIN factor being HH Trump. Not the news outlets, they a re behaving very predictably. The democratic leaning ones endorsed HRC and the Republican leaning ones had no Republican candidate to endorse (their narrative, not mine) and so they quit on Trump. That is perfectly logical.

Hitesh · Post by **Hitesh** » 18 Oct 2016 00:57

habal wrote:I read a report that Obama was abandoned by his drunken bum of a father, his mother was a pronographic film star to make ends meet. It also mentioned that michelle Obama was frequently living in the Jessie Jackson house in Chicago, it hinted that 'she was Jessies favorite little girl'.
If Bill Clinton gets into the white house, it will be full of 12 year old girls giving him "massages".
Sick bunch of trash running the united states.

Channeling your inner Dinesh D'Souza, aren't ya?

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 18 Oct 2016 01:02

Trump's fading fortunes was best explained by Maher at the end of his monologue - "He said - there's a whole deal going on..we are going to figure this out. I can picture him in Trump tower, with one of the wall, with the news paper stories, and the headshots, drawing lines between them with a red marker - ok..I am an asshole, women hate assholes, women can vote, it doesn't add up"

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 18 Oct 2016 01:12

On the lighter note..you ain't doing this election right if you're not following Denald Trump on twitter. He's got a fine list of folks he's fooled over this election cycle..

@realDenaldTrump
https://twitter.com/realDenaldTrump

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 18 Oct 2016 02:12

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 18 Oct 2016 02:14

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 18 Oct 2016 04:23

rush limbaugh is a big fat idiot but he has interesting questions for billary that the news media eill never ask ask at the debate......

http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2016/ ... rs_clinton

Mrs. Clinton, when you worked for the State Department, how did you conduct secret classified business without using a secure email server? And don't say it's a mistake that you won't do again because you still had to conduct business. How did you conduct secret classified business on your public server?

What kind of assault weapons were we funneling through Benghazi, and where were we sending them before Ambassador Stevens was murdered?

Mrs. Clinton, why were you interested in the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad in Syria?

Mrs. Clinton, when you left the White House after your husband's last term as president in the year 2000, why did you steal $200,000 worth of furniture and China and artwork that you were forced to return?

Mrs. Clinton, when you were secretary of state, why did you solicit contributions from foreign governments to your family foundation after you promised President Obama you would not?

Mrs. Clinton, why do you and your husband claim to contribute millions of dollars to charity for a tax write-off when it goes to your family foundation that gives less than 15% of the money you collect and you use the balance to support yourself tax-free? How do you do that? How could other Americans set up similar arrangements as you have? What would you tell them?

Mrs. Clinton, why are you unable to account for $6 billion of State Department money that seemed to have disappeared while you were secretary of state?

Mrs. Clinton, you said you were broke when you left the White House, but you purchased a $2 million home. You built an addition for the Secret Service. You charged taxpayers of the United States rent in an amount equal to the entire mortgage. Why did you say you were broke?

Mrs. Clinton, how is it your daughter, Chelsea, can afford to buy a 10-and-a-half million-dollar apartment in New York City after you left the White House when you were broke? I might throw that one out. I might leave out the question about the daughter.

Mrs. Clinton, could you tell the average American how their child could get a $600,000-a-year job at NBC with no experience like your daughter did? That's a better one, right? That's a better one. Yeah, because the 10.6, that comes from the Mezvinskys, you know, she married that. But, yeah, the 600 grand a year, not having done it before.

Mrs. Clinton, why did you lie to the American people about the terror attack in Benghazi, but you managed to tell the truth to your daughter the same night that it happened?

Mrs. Clinton, why did you fail the bar exam in the District of Columbia? Why did your husband lose his law license? Take your time, Mrs. Clinton. We're here for a couple of hours.

I mean, this is just scraping the surface. I mean, there's all kinds of other things that we could ask. But these are the kinds of things that are asked of Trump that are not asked of her, is my point. (interruption) Okay, yeah, okay, we could do that.

Mrs. Clinton, for the past two weeks we have been treated to accounts of Donald Trump and his supposedly abusive treatment of women, many of whom have now been exposed as not having told the truth. Why did you feel it necessary to tarnish the reputations of women who had alleged that your husband had abused them, and in one case raped them? Tell us about the bimbo eruptions unit that helped your husband survive as president.

Any number of ways you could go with this that Trump is routinely asked about that she is not. That's the point that I'm trying to make. I mean, the questions, you know, they're not specific here. They're generic just to indicate that there are all kinds of places, all kinds of areas that the moderators are not going with Mrs. Clinton.

(interruption) No, I wouldn't ask her what her relationship is with Huma. No. I wouldn't touch on that. That's inside stuff. I don't think the vast majority of people even know who Huma is. And so I would leave Huma alone. I might express condolences, "Would you pass on my sincere feelings for Mrs. Danger over the embarrassment of her husband sending pictures of his nakedness to teenagers. Such a terrible thing, and we feel for -- would you pass that on for us? Thank you." Nah. Look, I'm trying to keep this aboveboard here. With the Clintons, you see how easy it is to get to the gutter if you want to go there?

BREAK TRANSCRIPT

RUSH: Mrs. Clinton, you made $21 million in two years giving speeches to, among others, Wall Street banks, often at $250,000 per 30-minute speech and in some cases $350,000. Why are you in such close relationships with Wall Street, and what are they expecting for what they paid you? Somehow get the question out there. Tie her to the close relationships she has with Wall Street while her voters think that she's out to destroy Wall Street. Some of the WikiLeak document dumps indicate how close she is to these bankers. Lloyd Blankfein at Goldman Sachs is just one example.

El Rushbo was hotter than a pistol today. none of these questions will ever be asked publicly of course. but we could dream

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 18 Oct 2016 04:32

Gus wrote:Trump's fading fortunes was best explained by Maher at the end of his monologue - "He said - there's a whole deal going on..we are going to figure this out. I can picture him in Trump tower, with one of the wall, with the news paper stories, and the headshots, drawing lines between them with a red marker - ok..I am an asshole, women hate assholes, women can vote, it doesn't add up"

Bill Maher is a discredited source and is part of the left wing MSM. Much similar to Barking Mutt (Barkha Dutt) and Maher feeds off the false stories from the presstitutes of the American Democratic Party.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 18 Oct 2016 04:35

habal wrote:I read a report that Obama was abandoned by his drunken bum of a father, his mother was a pronographic film star to make ends meet. It also mentioned that michelle Obama was frequently living in the Jessie Jackson house in Chicago, it hinted that 'she was Jessies favorite little girl'.
If Bill Clinton gets into the white house, it will be full of 12 year old girls giving him "massages".
Sick bunch of trash running the united states.

Hmmm. I read MIchelle Obama actually a transgender given her height and weight.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 18 Oct 2016 04:38

It is not all lost as media is putting forth for Trump. The election will be very close and unpredictable. It is all about which pocket of which state votes more. For example in VA everyone is writing it off as Hillary almost won with +6 leads. I doubt it. if any county from Loudon and south of it votes 70% to booths, it will be no one's predictable.

Media is truely colluded and the whole system is surely with Hillary. These are no more conspiracy theories.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 18 Oct 2016 04:41

Trump is done. Put a fork in him. We will now have to endure HRC's nastiness towards India and Indians. Most of the 2nd/3rd gen Indians working for the Democratic party have been digested as Rajiv Malhotra has put forward.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 18 Oct 2016 04:42

Here is a classic leak - Once upon a time anyone who write such analysis, he would have been called out as Conspiracy Theorist and writing without evidence.

https://twitter.com/FLRouleau/status/788101593308823557

There are several leaks where every mainstream media person of USA is in collusion with Hillary machinery.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 18 Oct 2016 05:32

@Muppalla,

I tend to agree, Trump is not out.

I think HRC still has to deal with her emails. And, that may just keep people at home.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 18 Oct 2016 06:18

oh that guy is comedy gold... thanks