Analyzing CPEC

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deejay
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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby deejay » 10 Sep 2016 15:22

Some more on CPEC from Tribune(pk)

http://tribune.com.pk/story/1178218/cpec-security/

It is now learnt that the provinces have yet to give authorisation for the deployment of the special security force, mainly because of challenges to the CPEC from assorted “regional powers” — read vested interests — that see the development of the CPEC as a threat to their own assets and/or interests. This wrinkle in the implementation process emerged during a meeting called to review progress. The National Highway Authority raised the matter relative to the deployment of the Special Force on the Thakot-Havelian stretch of the CPEC and was informed that “administrative issues” were the problem and specifically the jurisdiction of the new force and its rules of engagement.

Image


http://tribune.com.pk/story/1178265/cpec-projects-worth-18b-implementation/

The US$ 18 Billion seem to be the early harvest power projects. Gwadar area and the road, pipeline infrastructure is separate and the work is going on. Some stretches are already complete.

Early Harvest Projects and Gwadar infrastructure are scheduled to be ready by 2018 and appear to be on schedule.

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby deejay » 10 Sep 2016 15:54

http://thewire.in/39874/the-china-pakistan-corridor-is-all-about-power-not-electricity-but-the-real-thing/

This is an interesting and a different take of CPEC. Instead of viewing as a strategic threat, the author works on the angle of how it will sink Pakistan further.

In a way it confirms China is sinking another hook into Pakistan.

...For all its brave talk, these realities seem to have now dawned upon the government, which, from some of its recent decisions, appears to be dragging its feet on CPEC projects, drawing criticism from two quarters, China and the Pakistan army. The planning ministry had asked for Rs.350 billion in the 2016-17 budget for CPEC projects, which it oversees: it was given Rs.124 billion, a third of what it needed. It has allocated 90% of this to road projects, not to the power plants, which might seem to reflect a shift of priorities towards the road sector (and raise suspicions in India), but this is just 15% of the Rs.762 billion that the highway authority had asked for, so even this work is not really galloping on.

If CPEC is a game-changer, it seems odd that the government should be starving it of funds. Either it is not, or the government is so strapped that it cannot possibly give more without creating major privations and serious problems elsewhere. (As an order of comparison, all the Sharif government was able or willing to allot this year as its share in the building of the CPEC power projects was Rs.13 billion. Once these are up and running, it would have to find Rs.72 billion every year to pay the guaranteed 22% to the Chinese operators.)...


...
Army stakes it claim

And the army is lying in wait. Details of how CPEC will be funded, how much of it is a grant, how much of the investment is in the form of loans which Pakistan will have to repay, and on what terms, are mysteries, the entire agreement being opaque. What is transparent, even if extraordinary, is the army’s close interest in what is supposedly a purely economic project. To some, this simply reflects the army’s greed; since it has major commercial interests, promoted through its two foundations, it sees enormous new opportunities if the corridor throws up economic zones on its fringes, and plans to corner the lion’s share. That might well be true, but the army is playing a deeper and older game.
...

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby deejay » 10 Sep 2016 16:12

An interesting source of information and infographics on CPEC is https://walizahid.com/2015/02/46b-china-pakistan-economic-corridor-15-years-3-routes-51-projects/

I am linking some images from the site and other places

Projects and Location (Almost nothing to Balochistan, NWFP in terms of power projects. Only roads):
Image

Break of 46Billion USD in segments:
Image

However, the most comprehensive source of info I have come across so far remains wiki despite its +/- accuracy:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Pakistan_Economic_Corridor

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby deejay » 10 Sep 2016 16:32

An interesting tweet on CPEC from a Baloch:
https://twitter.com/haikakar/status/772300681969405952

Abdul Hai Kakar
‏@haikakar
#CPEC total projects are 330 in which 176 r in Punjab while only eight projects have been allocated for Balochistan.


http://tribune.com.pk/story/1175160/economic-corridor-punjab-gets-lions-share-cpec-projects/

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby deejay » 10 Sep 2016 16:37

As more and more data on CPEC becomes available, fault lines are strengthening. The fault lines are:
a) Civil Military
b) Provincial
c) Security to CPEC work
d) Locals in other provinces feeling left out.

Additional fault lines anticipated:
> Share of loot between Chinese, Pak Fauj and Pak Govt. None are honest.

Also, Paki econ stress watchers, any comments on where the circular debt will go once these power projects come on line?

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby deejay » 10 Sep 2016 17:57

Image

from https://walizahid.com/2015/02/46b-china-pakistan-economic-corridor-15-years-3-routes-51-projects/

Just south of Havelian Dry port is the town of Burhan. This is where the present Karokoram highway will meet the ML1 and ML 2 of the CPEC corridor. South of Burhan, there is always an alternative route connecting the Paki ports to the Chinese territories.

CPEC is China Pakistan Economic Corridor. Take a hard look on the map and ask this question "Why does China Pakistan Economic corridor need Gwadar when Karanchi is available?"

Karanchi is already well connected and additional investments at Gwadar do not justify the "Economic" part of the acronym CPEC. Improvements in road infrastructure from Karanchi to Kunjrab should have sufficed for CPEC. Most power projects are also on this Karanchi - Kunjrab route.

The investments at Gwadar have a few interesting features either at 0% long term loans or directly built by the Chinese at their cost. The Pakistani govt is giving all these investments long term tax holidays with imports for these exempted tax for 40 years:
> Desalination Plant
> 300 MW power project
> 300 bed Hospital

Additionally, a major Chinese company will invest (or has made announcements) up to US$ 4.5 Billion in an SEZ near Gwadar for which land has been earmarked. This will contain office spaces, living quarters, manufacturing units and hotels.

The port at Gwadar can handle a draught of 70 K Tons. As a pointer the Chinese aircraft carrier is a 65K ton beast.

Gwadar will be well connected with Karanchi too and will have alternative routes to Kashghar. It appears that the entire investment at Gwadar and associated facilities being created are for the Chinese themselves. I expect the number of Chinese to be approx 10000 once the place is ready. Though a 300 bed hospital can cater to a much larger population base which means there could be more people, either Chinese or Pakistani. (WHO minimum standards of Hospital bed to population ratio: 5 per 1000 peoplehttp://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2015-06-24/news/63782979_1_infant-mortality-rate-health-sector-bed-hospital).

My understanding hence is that it will be safe to assume a permanent PLAN base at Gwadar. Not berthing rights, not visiting ships, but permanent fully equipped PLAN base. When is this base likely to be ready? The Gwadar port projects are likely to be ready by 2018 (that is the intent) and may extend to 2019 for achieving Operational readiness for partial use. Industrial Zone projects and manufacturing hun work are likely to extend till 2025 and the greater project is planned to be completed by 2030. (Refer wiki link)

The port at Gwadar is also not under any threat of being choked by the Baloch nationalists. This is because there is alternate route available. The only choke in the CPEC is the single road from Burhan to Kunjrab in POK. Over a longer term - China plans a railway line over Kunjrab crossing the Kunjrab pass at 4693 mtrs. The railway line will take away this single route vulnerability too.

If indeed there is a permanent PLAN base with nuclear submarines in our vicinity at Gwadar, what does it mean for us? What does it mean for the countries accessing the Persian Gulf and the sea routes from Suez to Arabian Sea?

Another thought of interest to me - UK (Western Powers) went to lengths to keep Russia from accessing the warm waters (Great Game, A T Mahan etc); have they handed over this access to China on a platter? Will they try and stop China?

Finally - Once (and if) PLAN is based in Gwadar, will we ever be able to militarily engage Pakistan without automatically engaging China?

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby Atmavik » 10 Sep 2016 19:04

deejay wrote:As more and more data on CPEC becomes available, fault lines are strengthening. The fault lines are:
a) Civil Military
b) Provincial
c) Security to CPEC work
d) Locals in other provinces feeling left out.

Additional fault lines anticipated:
> Share of loot between Chinese, Pak Fauj and Pak Govt. None are honest.

Also, Paki econ stress watchers, any comments on where the circular debt will go once these power projects come on line?


The Circular Debt will be gaining Angular Momentum.

http://thewire.in/39874/the-china-pakistan-corridor-is-all-about-power-not-electricity-but-the-real-thing/

"the real problem with Pakistan’s power generation and distribution companies is a crisis of circular debt, which increasing production will not solve, but which the CPEC agreement announced in February 2016 will exacerbate. The government has approved the establishment of revolving funds, equal to 22% of monthly invoicing, “backed by sovereign guarantees to ensure uninterrupted payments to Chinese sponsors of CPEC energy projects”. If the purchaser fails to replenish the account, the ministry of finance will. Since distribution companies will default, because tariffs are low, and even those are not paid, the government will pay, up front, at least 22% of the bills of the Chinese companies."


-- one more point to note is that pakis will have to pay back in dollars .A while back we had analysed in the PES thread that their currency is already over valued. CPEC will prevent any further devaluation making their exports of textiles(taulia & chadhar) noncompetitive.

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby V_Raman » 10 Sep 2016 19:28

shiv wrote:I need information on what the Chinese like to eat normally and what they get in Pakistan


Chinese, at work in USA, eat very plain food. Steamed rice, steamed veggies like carrots, bok Choi, and broccoli sometimes. There is always one meat in their meal - beef, pork most of the time. One newcomer complained that they dont get much freshwater fish in USA which they seem to eat lot. He said something more ominous - he and his friends moved to USA due to food safety being one of the main issues. They lived in shanghai. They soak the produce in water for 1/2 hour and clean them multiple times before use!!. Organic produce, imported from USA, is sought after and sold at premium. They don't consume much milk at all.

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby pankajs » 10 Sep 2016 19:40

My guess is that the Baki atim bums are under the Chinese control and the Chini's have assured the US that they are under strict hardware and software locks and their protection is fool-proof. I don't know the process/procedure so am using the laymans terms here. I have stated this before.

Let me add to that conjecture.

1. Bums meant for delivery by land based missiles are stored on the Chinese side (Strategic depth for strategic weapons) of the China/Bak border and the missiles in POK. If the situation arises, the bums can be rushed across the border to be mated to the missiles. No wonder China is deeply involved in POK.

2. Now when (not if) the sub-launched bums, delivery system and the platform is delivered to bakis where is it going to be based hanji? Somewhere where it will be under the watchful eyes or even physical control of the Chini. And what port will that be hanji? Gwadar is being developed by PLAN and for PLAN and it the logical choice to house the sea-leg of Baki deterrence. Plus it will make India think before making any per-emptive strike on a PLAN base even if it is in Bakistan. Perhaps the Baki sea-based deterrence will be operated by the Chini themselves except for the flag and the name of the vessel.

North Korea sub-launch missile test, CPEC, Baki army interest, Chini interest all makes sense if the above assumptions are true.

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby SSridhar » 10 Sep 2016 19:57

deejay wrote:Finally - Once (and if) PLAN is based in Gwadar, will we ever be able to militarily engage Pakistan without automatically engaging China?

deejay, it is Chin-Pak already, a single unit. Let's have no doubt about that at all.

This is the insularity that Pakistan wants in order to torment us more with their terrorism, adding to the 'nuclear umbrella' under which it has been carrying out its nefarious activities so far. The aggressive posturing of Xi Jinping has come very handy for the 'martial race' Pakistani Army. For all its recklessness, the PA knew that its 'terror under nuclear umbrella'-project could only go thus far and no further because it knew that in the worst case, Pakistan might hit a few populous Indian locations if it was lucky enough, but the whole of Pakistan would be wiped out. With Chin-Pak as a single entity, the game changes, or at least that is what a tactically-brilliant Pakistani Army calculates. That's why it wants to completely take-over the CPEC project implementation directly under its control, away from civilian oversight (of course, it also offers avenues to make huge money), something that the politicians are unwilling to concede because they want to make money too. This is a major cause of tension between the Army & Nawaz Sharif.

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby deejay » 10 Sep 2016 20:27

pankajs wrote:My guess is that the Baki atim bums are under the Chinese control and the Chini's have assured the US that they are under strict hardware and software locks and their protection is fool-proof. I don't know the process/procedure so am using the laymans terms here. I have stated this before.

Let me add to that conjecture.

1. Bums meant for delivery by land based missiles are stored on the Chinese side (Strategic depth for strategic weapons) of the China/Bak border and the missiles in POK. If the situation arises, the bums can be rushed across the border to be mated to the missiles. No wonder China is deeply involved in POK.

2. Now when (not if) the sub-launched bums, delivery system and the platform is delivered to bakis where is it going to be based hanji? Somewhere where it will be under the watchful eyes or even physical control of the Chini. And what port will that be hanji? Gwadar is being developed by PLAN and for PLAN and it the logical choice to house the sea-leg of Baki deterrence. Plus it will make India think before making any per-emptive strike on a PLAN base even if it is in Bakistan. Perhaps the Baki sea-based deterrence will be operated by the Chini themselves except for the flag and the name of the vessel.

North Korea sub-launch missile test, CPEC, Baki army interest, Chini interest all makes sense if the above assumptions are true.


Sir, in my opinion, in Gwadar, it will be PLAN and the subs won't be under Bakis. Paki crew may be trained and kept but the nuke sub will always be controlled by PLAN directly and PN will not own it.

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby deejay » 10 Sep 2016 20:34

SSridhar wrote:
deejay wrote:Finally - Once (and if) PLAN is based in Gwadar, will we ever be able to militarily engage Pakistan without automatically engaging China?

deejay, it is Chin-Pak already, a single unit. Let's have no doubt about that at all.

This is the insularity that Pakistan wants in order to torment us more with their terrorism, adding to the 'nuclear umbrella' under which it has been carrying out its nefarious activities so far. The aggressive posturing of Xi Jinping has come very handy for the 'martial race' Pakistani Army. For all its recklessness, the PA knew that its 'terror under nuclear umbrella'-project could only go thus far and no further because it knew that in the worst case, Pakistan might hit a few populous Indian locations if it was lucky enough, but the whole of Pakistan would be wiped out. With Chin-Pak as a single entity, the game changes, or at least that is what a tactically-brilliant Pakistani Army calculates. That's why it wants to completely take-over the CPEC project implementation directly under its control, away from civilian oversight (of course, it also offers avenues to make huge money), something that the politicians are unwilling to concede because they want to make money too. This is a major cause of tension between the Army & Nawaz Sharif.


Sir, as of today, in the realms of contemplation only, it is possible to imagine creating situations which force China to stay out of Indo-Pak scenario militarily. Once PLAN and important assets are in Gwadar, there is no keeping back China from engaging India, even in contemplation. Also, the balance of military might tilts very heavily in favour of Pak-China.

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby Ramesh » 10 Sep 2016 23:33

V_Raman wrote:
shiv wrote:I need information on what the Chinese like to eat normally and what they get in Pakistan


Chinese, at work in USA, eat very plain food. Steamed rice, steamed veggies like carrots, bok Choi, and broccoli sometimes. There is always one meat in their meal - beef, pork most of the time. One newcomer complained that they dont get much freshwater fish in USA which they seem to eat lot. He said something more ominous - he and his friends moved to USA due to food safety being one of the main issues. They lived in shanghai. They soak the produce in water for 1/2 hour and clean them multiple times before use!!. Organic produce, imported from USA, is sought after and sold at premium. They don't consume much milk at all.

What will the Chinese working for CPEC do to get their meat content in the diet?
will they be provided with halal pork!!!

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby williams » 11 Sep 2016 09:32

Can PLAN have a large force in Gwadar? You can simply block Mallaca Strait and take few bridges in Karokoram highway right? Then any PLAN force is isolated.

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby deejay » 11 Sep 2016 09:46

williams wrote:Can PLAN have a large force in Gwadar? You can simply block Mallaca Strait and take few bridges in Karokoram highway right? Then any PLAN force is isolated.


Blocking Mallaca and taking "few" bridges in Karakoram won't be child's play. Anyway, PLAN will build up and prepare in peacetime to adequately stock itself over a long term. Long term facilities for manning, power, food and fuel are all being built along with manufacturing hub near Gwadar. Chinese are helping Pakis with nuclear facilities which will not be under any safeguards. The port at Gwadar is more than self sustaining. Smaller supplies during war time can be air shipped. Plus they are building resources over entire Pakistan. I really don't see PLAN at Gwadar being greatly bothered by blocking of Mallaca and blowing of bridges in Karakoram.

PLAN in Indo China sea will surely not like it and PLAN at Gwadar is likely to try its own blockade of Mumbai and adjoining areas. Our Naval resources may not have superiority in numbers and capability in the west that we so far enjoy.

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby chanakyaa » 11 Sep 2016 22:41

Following is a little dated map. I'll see if I can find newer data, but in the meantime, here are the international sources of Chinese oil/gas.

Where Does China Import Its Energy From

Bigger Map

Image

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby williams » 11 Sep 2016 23:00

deejay wrote:
williams wrote:Can PLAN have a large force in Gwadar? You can simply block Mallaca Strait and take few bridges in Karokoram highway right? Then any PLAN force is isolated.


Blocking Mallaca and taking "few" bridges in Karakoram won't be child's play. Anyway, PLAN will build up and prepare in peacetime to adequately stock itself over a long term. Long term facilities for manning, power, food and fuel are all being built along with manufacturing hub near Gwadar. Chinese are helping Pakis with nuclear facilities which will not be under any safeguards. The port at Gwadar is more than self sustaining. Smaller supplies during war time can be air shipped. Plus they are building resources over entire Pakistan. I really don't see PLAN at Gwadar being greatly bothered by blocking of Mallaca and blowing of bridges in Karakoram.

PLAN in Indo China sea will surely not like it and PLAN at Gwadar is likely to try its own blockade of Mumbai and adjoining areas. Our Naval resources may not have superiority in numbers and capability in the west that we so far enjoy.


I agree with you that doing a Naval blockade in Mallaca or cutting off Karakoram highway is not going to be easy. But IN along with IAF has the capability to do that if needed. PLAN can sustain with local supplies to some extent. But IN has a large presence in the Arabian sea and with the backing of IAF, India can easily attain air superiority and carpet bomb the supply lines in Pakistan. PLAN has some good capability but I still cannot say it is a full blue water Navy like that of USN. Playing games far away from their main land without that much of air support against a large and experienced Navy is not going to be easy. It is just possible they could lease few nuclear subs to Pakistan and improve Pakistan's deterrence capability. But I still don't see Chinese spending large capital for Paki pipe dreams. Most of the so called help they provided to the Pakis does not involve cost from their side. Unlike the reckless Pakis, Chinese are a bit more risk averse and cost sensitive.

That said, all this may change in the next 10-20 years and that is where India needs to wake up from the slumber and build a reasonable force to deter these kind of adventures. Not just that, I think we should build capabilities to take the war closer to the Chinese mainland if needed. Building deep strategic relationships with countries like Vietnam, Japan and SK should be a high priority. Hopefully in the next few years we will find the money to build the planned mountain strike corps. It also depends on where Uncle will tilt. If Uncle can provide little bit more hardware and diplomatic support then it is game over. Finally everything depends on Keeping Namo in power for the next 2 terms.

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby shashankk » 11 Sep 2016 23:53

shiv wrote:I need information on what the Chinese like to eat normally and what they get in Pakistan


I dont know much about that they Eat in America but Chinese Built a steel pipe manufacturing plant in Jharkhand and while Chinese stayed there all street dogs vanished. It started from hundred rupees a dog and went up to thousand rupees per dog by end of the year.

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Analyzing CPEC

Postby Peregrine » 12 Sep 2016 02:48

1. williams Ji : Your post : 11 Sep 2016 09:32
2. deejay Ji :[b] Your Post : 11 Sep 2016 09:46
[b]3. chanakyaa Ji :
Your Post : 11 Sep 2016 22:41

I refer you to my post of 09 Sep 2016 16:58 – Page 1 of this thread :

It states :

BB : Kyuakpyu : China's Alternative to the Malacca Straits by getting its Oil - Natural Gas from Persian Gulf, West Africa etc -through Kyuakpyu thus making Gwadar "UNWANTED & UNNECESSARY" and the only use of Gwadar to the Chinese is for the Strategic Purpose of Basing the Chinese Fleet in Gwadar.

With Oil And Gas Pipelines, China Takes A Shortcut Through Myanmar - Eric Meyer

As such the Chinese have already built an alternative to the Malacca Straits by utilizing the Port of Kyaukpyu, about 60 Miles or so South East from the Port of Sitwe – old name Akyab – (I refer you to chanakyaa Ji’s Post of 11 Sep 2016 22:41) wherein you will see a “Pipeline” leading to Kunming.

Eric Meyer’s above mentioned Article describes the Port of Kyaukpyu wherein the 300,000 DWT Tankers use the Maday Island Oil Terminal to transport the Oil by a Pipe Line to Kunming. There is also a Natural Gas Pipe Line to Kunming.

Cheers Image

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby SSridhar » 12 Sep 2016 04:49

15K Pakistanis guarding 7K Chinese working on China-Pakistan Economic Corridor - Rajeev Deshpande, ToI
There are two Pakistani security personnel for every Chinese national working on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), indicating the high threat perception to the project despite China's billing as Pakistan's "all weather ally".

A series of attacks targetting the project has seen Pakistan deploy as many as 14,503 security personnel to secure some 7,036 Chinese nationals working on CPEC with most in Punjab which is home to several jihadi tanzeems.

A written reply in Pakistan's National Assembly said 6,364 personnel were protecting 7,036 Chinese professionals in Punjab, 3134 in Balochistan, 2654 in Sindh, 1912 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and 439 in the Islamabad area. The information was provided in response to a question raised by Pakistan People's Party member Shahida Rehman.

The threat to the corridor comes from Balochi nationalists who have targeted the project and also from Taliban factions who have abducted Chinese personnel working in Pakistan in the past. Though the 2,000-km CPEC is viewed in Pakistan as a "game changer" that will boost economic infrastructure by connecting Kashgar in China to the Gwadar port in Balochistan, the project has attracted hostile attention.

The corridor's strategic implications are not less important as the project envisages reconstruction of the Karakoram highway that passes through Gilgit-Baltistan, offering China passage through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.

The Gwadar port is also important to Pakistan as it is not too far away from the Chabahar port in Iran which is being developed by India.

The project offers India an opportunity to reach Afghanistan through a port-road link. The distribution of CPEC projects also reflects the threat perception to various segments of the corridor. Of 330 CPEC projects, just about eight are in Balochistan where separatists are opposing the corridor.

Pakistani authorities claim attacks have been curtailed after stepped up security deployment with a special security division comprising nine composite infantry battalions and six civil armed force wings dedicated to the task.

India sees the corridor as a challenge to its security as it passes through areas of Jammu and Kashmir occupied by Pakistan and the Chinese role in developing the region ignores Indian claims on the area post-independence.

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby Gagan » 12 Sep 2016 10:33

The truth comes tumbling out...

https://youtu.be/suStOir0-PI

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby chanakyaa » 13 Sep 2016 07:00

Russia might raise $1 bln for construction of gas pipeline in Pakistan
Russia might raise $1 bln for construction of gas pipeline in Pakistan

MOSCOW, September 12. /TASS/. RT Global Resources (100% subsidiary of Rostec) might attract funding for a construction project of North - South gas pipeline in Pakistan around $1 bln, Deputy Energy Minister Yury Sentyurin told reporters on Monday.

"More than $1 bln. This is not investment - but attracted funding. The Russian side undertakes the responsibilities to bring these financial resources," he said, answering a question from TASS about the total project investment.
According to Sentyurin, the project is in the active stage of implementation. Rostec subsidiary and Pakistan’s state gas supplying company ISGAL have already created a special purpose project company (Special Purpose Vehicle - SPV), responsible for the implementation of the project. In the first decade of October, a second meeting of the Russian-Pakistani committee for the coordination of economic activities will be held, Sentyurin said. It was reported earlier that the parties intended to sign commercial agreements on the project before October 16.

Sentyurin also noted that the beginning of the project is still scheduled for December 2017. At the same time, according to him, Pakistan has decided not to implement the project in three stages, as was previously assumed, but in two stages.

It was reported earlier that the governments of Russia and Pakistan signed an intergovernmental agreement on the construction of the North-South gas pipeline. The document was signed by Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak and Pakistani Petroleum and Natural Resources Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi.
The 1100 km long gas pipeline will link liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals in the port of Karachi in the south of Pakistan with the city of Lahore in the north of the country.

The period of construction was expected to last 42 months. The project initially was to be implemented in three stages. On the first stage, by the second quarter of 2018, the gas pipeline will be built. On the second stage, by the second quarter of 2019, part of compressor stations will be completed. On the third stage, by the second quarter of 2020, all compressor stations will be commissioned bringing the pipeline to its full capacity, which is 12.4 billion cubic meters a year. The construction of the pipeline will provide orders for Russian industrial enterprises and will contribute to an increase in non-oil exports. The project will open up a new market for Russian companies.



Pakistan has worked on a similar model with China according to which an LNG pipeline will be laid from Gwadar to Nawabshah and a terminal will also be built at the deep-sea port.


I had a dream last night. POK has been turned into Donbass.

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby V_Raman » 13 Sep 2016 07:32

Why all of this is in public domain and creating so much noise now? Again, I cannot believe that China/Russia would undertake all this without taking GOI to confidence.

This will stop stop India from projecting power into MiddleEast! So the great game is still alive and well - perhaps that is what this is all about.

I had a dream last night - seriously - the power generated from all these CPEC power projects will be sold to India!!

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby chanakyaa » 13 Sep 2016 16:21

Do you believe Chinese helped build Baki nukes by taking GoI to confidence?

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby Aditya_V » 13 Sep 2016 16:39

What about South Korea, Japan- It must be marketed that China is using an alternate route to be safe when it declares war n them, same to Philipines and Vietnam.

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby SSridhar » 13 Sep 2016 19:46

In China, the debate on a corridor with Pakistan hots up - Atul Aneja, The Hindu
The China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is generating a vigorous internal debate, pitting those who advocate a lighter reliance on the project against others who view the undertaking as a cornerstone of security of the New Silk Road-Beijing’s ambitious connectivity plan.

The State-run Global Times on Tuesday ran an article that underscores the symbolic importance of the CPEC. But, simultaneously, it also highlighted the burgeoning costs of keeping the corridor secure. “It is unlikely that China will change its supportive attitude on the CPEC in the short term, but the increasing cost of security is becoming a big problem in efficiently pushing forward the project,” it observed.

The write-up highlighted the complexity of securing the Gwadar to Kashgar economic corridor. “The economic corridor, linking Kashgar in northwest China's Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and Gwadar Port in southwest Pakistan, passes through some turbulent regions, Kashmir included. It is unlikely to be plain sailing for China and Pakistan in their attempts to push forward the CPEC due to challenges such as a complex regional environment, and people in the two countries should be prepared for potential setbacks.”


The Pakistani media also underscored the difficulties that are being encountered in ensuring the CPEC’s unhindered take-off. Pakistan’s Dawn newspaper is reporting that the Chinese side has suggested that Islamabad should formally rope in the army to ensure smooth execution of the project. It added that the Chinese wanted the establishment of a separate ministry or authority that would focus exclusively on the CPEC, to escape entanglement in inter-ministerial red tape.

The daily said that Sun Weidong, Chinese Ambassador to Pakistan, had called on Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff General Raheel Sharif on June 7. An official statement released after the meeting stated: “Matters of mutual interest, including regional security and China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, came under discussion.”

In an interview with The Hindu, Hu Shisheng, Director of the Institute of South and Southeast Asian and Oceanian Studies at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, corroborated that China was now deeply enmeshed in Pakistan’s internal dynamics to shore up the CPEC project. “I think now the corridor could be the major pillar of the Sino-Pakistan relations. Nearly all our bilateral resources are more focused on guaranteeing the success of CPEC. So this will include all the areas. (We are) also dealing with the relationship between the Central government and local provinces. Also relations among provinces.”

He added: “The intensity of the relationship has increased dramatically. Even the anti-terror cooperation has transformed into a new level. So of course as a scholar I am also concerned whether it would be finally regarded as an involvement in the internal affairs (of Pakistan).”

The Global Times article pointed out that Beijing should consider shifting its focus from the CPEC to a deeper engagement with Southeast Asia. “The CPEC has long been seen as a flagship project in China's Belt and Road initiative, but the initiative's strategic focus may need to shift gradually toward Southeast Asia, where there is a wide infrastructure funding gap but a relatively stable regional environment that will enable China to efficiently push forward ventures under the Belt and Road initiative.

These observations coincided with the 13th China-ASEAN Business and Investment Summit that was held over the weekend in Nanning, where the construction of the 21st century Maritime Silk Road was the core theme. In an interview with China Central Television (CCTV) Victor Gao, a well-known commentator, explained that engagement with Southeast Asia fell well within the China’s comfort zone. He stressed that “in all the ASEAN countries, there are large Chinese communities who have been there for generations,” and they could help catalyse a booming China-ASEAN partnership.

But scholars such as Dr. Hu, view the CPEC as a project that can result in the emergence of a stable Pakistan. In turn, that would yield a major geostrategic prize, as it could disrupt the spread of extremism in the region, through which China’s ambitious One Belt, One Road will pass.

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby kapilrdave » 13 Sep 2016 20:25

V_Raman wrote:Why all of this is in public domain and creating so much noise now? Again, I cannot believe that China/Russia would undertake all this without taking GOI to confidence.

This will stop stop India from projecting power into MiddleEast! So the great game is still alive and well - perhaps that is what this is all about.

I had a dream last night - seriously - the power generated from all these CPEC power projects will be sold to India!!

India does not need power sold by china! We have power surplus.

Nobody can stop pakis if they are determined to become slaves of China. Not India, nor even China! That's the power of pakistan.

Take that you SDRE yindoos. Now you cannot molest me because I sleep with a psycho rapist who happen to be powerful. :lol:

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby ramana » 13 Sep 2016 20:55

Kapil That is the new Paki motto!!!!
Meanwhile...
Peregrine wrote:China, Pakistan must be ready for setbacks to economic corridor: Chinese daily

BEIJING: The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is unlikely to be "plain sailing" for both countries and they should brace themselves for "potential setbacks", a Chinese daily said on Tuesday.

An op-ed in the state backed Global Times said the rising cost of protecting Chinese workers on the $46 billion project in Pakistan was "becoming (a) big problem in efficiently pushing forward the projects".

The state-run daily also suggested that China should shift its focus from the region to Southeast Asia as "it would be unwise to put all its eggs in one basket".

The write-up came in the wake of Indian media reports saying some 15,000 Pakistani soldiers were guarding about 7,000 Chinese working on the CPEC in the face of growing number of attacks on the project.

"The CPEC has long been seen as symbolic of Sino-Pakistan economic cooperation. It is unlikely that China will change its supportive attitude on the CPEC in the short term, but the increasing cost of security is becoming a big problem in efficiently pushing forward the projects," the Times said.

The proposed CPEC, which will connect China's largest province Xinjiang with Pakistan's Gwadar port in Balochistan, is key to Beijing's ambitious One Road One Belt project.

The CPEC passes through Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistani Kashmir -- claimed by India -- and Balochistan, home to a long-running insurgency.

"It is unlikely to be plain sailing for China and Pakistan in their attempts to push forward the CPEC due to challenges such as a complex regional environment, and people in the two countries should be prepared for potential setbacks," the daily said.

It warned that Beijing and Islamabad should be ready to cope "ethnic conflicts and confrontations that may arise in restive Balochistan.

"This does not mean that China should give up on the idea of the CPEC because of the present challenges. However, China may not want to put too much focus on the region.

"At the very least, it would be unwise to put all its eggs in one basket."

The daily, run by the ruling Communist Party, suggested that Beijing should think beyond Pakistan in terms of economic cooperation -- its all-weather ally in South Asia.

"Beijing should consider giving more attention to its economic cooperation with Southeast Asian countries.

"The CPEC has long been seen as a flagship project in China's Belt and Road initiative, but the initiative's strategic focus may need to shift gradually toward Southeast Asia, where there is a wide infrastructure funding gap but a relatively stable regional environment that will enable China to efficiently push forward ventures under the Belt and Road initiative.

"China may need to start taking more gradual and steady steps in the CPEC, but at the same time the country should be more aggressive in seeking cooperation with various Southeast Asian countries, Vietnam included.

"Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc is currently on a six-day visit to China. Hopefully, the two countries will be able to put aside disputes that arose over the South China Sea and focus on promoting economic development.
"In past years, economic ties between China and Vietnam have maintained good moment," it added.
Cheers Image

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby kapilrdave » 14 Sep 2016 11:36

kapilrdave wrote:India does not need power sold by china! We have power surplus.

Nobody can stop pakis if they are determined to become slaves of China. Not India, nor even China! That's the power of pakistan.

Take that you SDRE yindoos. Now you cannot molest me because I sleep with a psycho rapist who happen to be powerful. :lol:

Adding to my earlier comment....

China will prove US as a stupid incompetent fool.

US took a public woman to a date... paid the restaurant bill and five star hotel bill... put up with all her nakhras... and came back as Baal Bramhachari :mrgreen:

China will pay pittance initially, flog her thoroughly and finally pimp her to other bad boys around.

Whatever happens to pakistan, but this is a concern for India too.

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby menon s » 16 Sep 2016 13:49

Sahiwal coal power plant is coming up fast in Sahiwal district of Punjab along the Ravi river Canal.

The Plant is supposed to generate 1320 MW, on imported coal. that will make its way, from Karachi.

a plant of this size requires about 15000 tons of coal per day! which is about 12 trains per day!

will Pakistan be able to provide the rail infrastructure for 12 cargo laden trains up and down, all the way to Karachi and back, is anybodys guess!

Morover, they have put up this plant right in the middle of lush green fields! the environmental degradation, this will cause to the farming in the countryside is anybodys guess!

and the Govt of the day has promised, 28% ROI, to Chinese investors? which is an unheard of figure in power utility business!

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby SSridhar » 16 Sep 2016 13:58

menon s wrote:Morover, they have put up this plant right in the middle of lush green fields! the environmental degradation, this will cause to the farming in the countryside is anybodys guess!

China is not bothered about environmental degradation, especially in other countries. The world over, China has faced protests because of that. Some projects have even been abandoned, Myitsone in Burma, or Trans-Amazonian high-speed railway line, for examples.

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby JayS » 16 Sep 2016 15:48

I am thinking, is there a way we make it the CPEC too costly for China that they back off?? Or they realise in long term they cannot rely on it?? For example unrest in POK could help. What are our options in putting road blocks in CPEC??

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby TKiran » 16 Sep 2016 15:55


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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby chanakyaa » 16 Sep 2016 16:49

JayS wrote:I am thinking, is there a way we make it the CPEC too costly for China that they back off?? Or they realise in long term they cannot rely on it?? For example unrest in POK could help. What are our options in putting road blocks in CPEC??

POK = Donbass
Baloch = Crimea
That should do it. :D

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby pankajs » 16 Sep 2016 18:01

http://qz.com/782147/narendra-modis-mes ... -pakistan/

“At a strategic level, India also recognises that by internationalising the Balochistan issue it is increasing the costs for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor,” said Xavier. Beijing is currently in the midst of pouring a staggering $46 billion into the CPEC.

That is one way of increasing cost.

The second is by increasing the uncertainty of pay off/back for China. This is done by making reference to POK as Indian territory in EVERY meeting between Xi and Modi. Keep the Chinese worried about safety and utility of CPEC. It is also a tangential way of making it clear to the Chinese that India will *retain* the right to act against the project at its time of choosing.

Chinese are not going to occupy Bakiland especially given the snake pit that it has become. They will have to rely on the the Bak army. Also note, per the Bak media, 75% of the spending under CPEC is Chinese investments in power plants, etc. If the country goes to dogs its investments are going to suffer sovereign guarantees or not. Remember the Chinese are hardcore *bannias*.

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby SSridhar » 16 Sep 2016 18:22

pankajs wrote: . . . The second is by increasing the uncertainty of pay off/back for China. This is done by making reference to POK as Indian territory in EVERY meeting between Xi and Modi. Keep the Chinese worried about safety and utility of CPEC. It is also a tangential way of making it clear to the Chinese that India will *retain* the right to act against the project at its time of choosing.

+1. Absolutely.

I will just add two more. One, not only between Xi & Modi, but everywhere else too and exactly like how China talks about its core interests on which no compromise is possible, such as Tibet, Taiwan & Indo-China Sea. Two, while Modi refers to POK in his talks with Xi, Modi should tell him that POK includes GB because that is how it was, because the Chinese had cleverly adopted the Pakistani way of referring to these territories as Northern Areas and later switched over to referring them as 'GB' when Pakistan changed the terminology. China refers to the rest as POK, thereby giving legitimacy to GB as a province of Pakistan and leaving Muzzafarabad, Mirpur etc alone as part of J&K. Modi & Doval (and other ministers like Parrikar) must be firm and even contrive opportunities to hammer this point across their counterparts and firmly din it into their ears every time.

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby SSridhar » 20 Sep 2016 20:01

Civil-military power paradigm: is it affecting CPEC? - Edit, DT
According to a report published in newspapers, the operationalising of Special Security Division (SSD), announced for the protection of Chinese workers, has been held up due to differences between the civil-military leadership. With some Chinese investors and officials showing concern on the security situation, such an issue could potentially affect the timelines for the projects under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). More than one and a half year after the announcement, civilian and military leadership have still to agree to terms of reference (ToR) that would govern the working of the SSD. Although both civilian and military leaders agree that CPEC is vital for the country’s economic future, mutual ‘distrust’ is impeding cooperation between them on this critical venture.

Reports suggest that [b]the government is not willing to ratify the ToR proposed by the army as the role envisaged by the military for the SSD is to advise, guide and ‘indirectly’ control the civilian law enforcement agencies in issues related to the security of CPEC projects. The government fears that such terms could expand military’s influence on law enforcement agencies at the cost of civilian administration’s authority. There is also the idea that the SSD has to be under the interior ministry’s command whereas the military has so far kept itself in the lead and intends to maintain that role.

Two wings of the SSD, north and south, are to be set up. As per the plans, the northern wing’s jurisdiction covers the area between the Khunjerab Pass on the Pakistan-China border and Rawalpindi, while the remaining stretch will be the southern wing’s responsibility. Though the army has established the SSD-North, government is reportedly holding back the executive and financial approval for the SSD-South. It is estimated that creation of a new wing could take about 12 to 18 months. This implies that even if the approval is given now, the SSD-South will not be functional by the end of 2017, which is the time when CPEC’s early harvest projects would be nearing completion.

Security is particularly problematic in the area that has to be secured by the SSD-South. The Frontier Works Organisation, which is engaged with road projects in Balochistan, has already lost 44 men, including 26 soldiers, in the province in security-related incidents. At present, there are close to 10,000 Chinese personnel working on different projects across the country. Their number is expected to grow as the implementation of CPEC projects picks up speed.[ /b]

Both government and army should realise the negative impact such delays can have on the implementation of CPEC projects. Moreover, with Chinese investors also showing concerns, the implementation of the project could face indefinite delays.

Despite the importance of army for realisation of projects, the ToR for the governance of the SSD should not come at the expense of the powers of civilian law-enforcement agencies. While there is a need to resolve the matter at the earliest, no one party should dictate the terms. Rather it should be formulated abiding by the constitution of Pakistan.

Similarly, government should be more vigilant in this regard. With the next general elections in approximately one and a half years, its position could be affected — positively or negatively — by the completion of the project on time. Most importantly, completion of CPEC projects on time is imperative for the financial future of Pakistan, giving the country’s economy the much-needed boost it needs to alleviate its various domestic problems, and to make its mark as a strong regional player. *

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby chetak » 20 Sep 2016 20:17

http://kiranasis.blogspot.in/

Kiran's Thoughts.. As Is

Monday, September 19, 2016

If India has to hit terror factories in Pakistan, be ready for a war with China!

It is about 32 hours since the attack on Uri army camp in India, by Pakistani terrorists. There is tremendous amount of anger in India, specifically in the sections of society which I normally don't see overreact on social media.

This was the front page of paper at my home Image-"We have had enough!"
Front page of New Indian Xpress, the day after Uri Attack
The overwhelming majority are screaming - Dear Prime Minister.. do something. do quickly..

That "do" can be full fledged war. It can be economic blockade.It can be water stoppage for Sindhu and five rivers of Punjab going into Pakistan.It can be surgical strikes inside Pakistan like India did inside Myanmar last year.It can be as many as there are opinions on social media, papers and TV.

But the big question is.. Can India attack Pakistan this week?
I am sure there is military will power. I am sure there would be enough political will power. I am sure India has plenty of financial cushion to do this. (Pakistan's GDP is smaller than just one state's in India - Maharashtra)I am sure internally there won't be much opposition to India for a small scale surgical strike.

But still.. 69 years of handling of Jammu and Kashmir by India is something we have to look at right now. Can India afford to hit Pakistan where it hurts the most, for Pakistan's obsession with Jihadi terror export all these decades?

While I was looking for some pragmatic answers, amidst very loud war cries that I see in press, TV and social media, I happened to see this tweet set. A very thoughtful set of tweets by the user @vadakkus. From here onward, I am merely reproducing the fantastic probing analysis done by @vadakkus, with very little info from my side. Read it fully and then comment on what Indian government can do, should do, and most importantly, when to do. Vadakkus starts off a tweet storm on the entire Pakistan - India fiasco. There is more than what meets the eye here. And issue is NOT Kashmir. It also does not look like anything to do with Islam, Separatism, Human Rights, Army, AFSPA, Track 2 negotiation and many other things we hear on TV.

It is must deeper than that.. Geo politics!

Image

Why is Pakistan obsessed with Kashmir? I have always wondered what makes Kashmir so attractive to Pakistan, that they are willing to keep the issue burning forever. What IS there?

{Prem Shekhar, a well known Kannada columnist informed a few weeks that Pakistan had even offered to give up East Pakistan in 1950s, in return for Jammu and Kashmir on the sidelines of official discussions with India! So definitely it is not religion or Kashmiris.. it is much deeper than that. It was water sources then, but now much more deeper...}

Why is India so reluctant to hit back at Pakistan? Also why does India always seem to be unable to retaliate to Pakistan in kind (it should, totally) and pussyfoots around Pakistan, despite all the atrocities it commits in India from daily incursions in Kashmir to the Mumbai attacks. They spend too much money on all this and the country, despite no visible revenue-generating industry (terrorism no revenue) has managed to survive until today, develop nukes and has so much international clout? Where does it get its money from? Why?? Why is India reluctant to strike? There must be reasons.

Yes, water is an issue. The Indus and its tributaries. But where do they get money to keep the issue alive? There is more to this than water. Today, someone told me about this thing and I was stumped about how bloody obvious this is, and even then, NOBODY in India talks about this!

It is China... stupid.. It is China and CPEC: The "thing" is the CPEC: China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. If you look at it closely suddenly everything falls into place. Kashmir, Balochistan, India's unwillingness to strike, silence of international community, everything else. Pakistan is just a front.

The real sponsor is hiding behind.

Maybe it is because Indian method of viewing everything in black & white. Pakistan sponsors terrorism to get Kashmir. It is not that simple. Pakistan kept the Kashmir flame burning until the 1990s to meet their ends, when China conceived the CPEC and decided to take over. A bit on the CPEC as no one seems to have heard about it. China has a huge geographic handicap: no access to southern world oceans.

So Chinese shipments from Europe, Middle East, Africa have to travel all the way around India, Malacca and ASEAN. China has serious problems with most countries in that region due to its aggressive military posture.

ImageCPEC Need. Source - Twitter. Please excuse since J&K map is not as per India's standards.

Why Pakistan is so important for Chinese economy? What if China could get a route through Pakistan to access the Arabian Sea? That line in blue. Look at it, so much distance, money saved! That, is the CPEC. A corridor of highways and railways will run from Kashgar in China to Gwadar in Pakistan (Baluchistan) on the Arabian sea near Iran border. And ALL the infrastructure and associated stuff for CPEC will be constructed for Pakistan by China, free or cost or for negligible loans.

What is CPEC?Four Six-lane Expressways from north to south Pakistan, four different routes. All main railway lines being upgraded to 160 kph double. A six to eight lane super expressway Karachi to Gwadar and Hyderabad Innumerable coal, thermal, solar and hydro power plants all across Pakistan. All of Gwadar, including a mega international airport! Then Hospitals, schools, colleges, tech institutes, even a Metro line in Lahore!

And of course, the capstone: reconstruction of the Karakoram highway to six to four lanes. All projects listed here. Click, zoom and read.

ImageCPEC Map. Source Twitter. Please excuse since J&K map is not as per India's standards.

But why is Jammu and Kashmir involved here? Now, on the Karakoram highway, this is where it matters most for India. It connects China and Pakistan, though India! Through Jammu and Kashmir, which legally acceded to India in 1947 October. This is a route map of the Karakoram highway (grey). Look at the top,inside the red circle. It is Gilgit Baltistan area of Jammu and Kashmir state, which legally belongs to India, but illegally occupied by Pakistan. Keep in mind, China also occupies illegally the eastern and northern part of Jammu and Kashmir - Shaksgam valley (gifted by Pakistan in 1960s) and Aksai Chin (occupied by China in 1950s when it annexed Tibet).

ImageKarakoram highway location. Map from Wiki. Not per India's J&K map standards.

The highway passes through Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. The red line is the LOC. Pakistan and China are connected through Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK for short). Pakistan calls this Gilgit-Baltistan area of Jammu and Kashmir, as Northern Territories sometimes.

More on Karakoram highway: Soon to be a 4/6 lane highway through some of the world's toughest terrain. A high-capacity highway across the Himalayas!

Now, though the CPEC is a recent thing, the idea had taken birth long back. The Karakoram highway started building in 1959, opened in 1979! Possibly Pakistan had refused China access to Gwadar then as they could. But now they have no other choice but hand over to China.

Why CPEC? OIL: Gwadar is just 400 km away from Muscat and 500 from the Strait of Hormuz through which all Gulf oil passes. 12 hours at sea! Proximity to Africa: China virtually owns much of Africa today. Billions in investment, buys natural resources. Nothing better than this. Pakistan as a market: China will flood Pakistan and Gulf with its cheap products and make a windfall there too. Proximity to new friend Sri Lanka.If USA/UK (control Malacca strait - Singapore) or India in Indian ocean decide to choke it, China will have no problem as it has CPEC.

But, all of CPEC and China's ambitions bearing fruit depends on the Karakoram highway. That depends on PoK continued to be occupied by Pakistan.

Money Involved: With the CPEC, China has sunk close to 50 BILLION Dollars in Pakistan. Of course, China gets free access to all this infrastructure in Pakistan. With this, 20% of Pakistan's GDP is now Chinese. China has Pakistan now firmly by the b***s, so much so that Pakistan can now be China's 24th province. With so much invested and at stake, China wouldn't even think twice about ruthlessly suppressing any attack on Pakistan,because they own it now.

Doesn't India know all this? Of course India knows all this. If we were to attack Pakistan, we would have to deal with China. Pakistan is small fry. China is not.

Who would side with India? Mostly nobody. Why? Because China is involved. How international geopolitics work, most don't get that either. USA wants to support us because China makes it nervous. But US corporations are over invested in China, so Uncle Sam will look the other way. Russia - Don't even think about it. Putin has enough troubles at home, and India's pandering to Obama hasn't got him amused. Europe will sit just and watch (because China), and all of the Middle East will (clandestinely) support Pakistan for obvious reasons (Islam).

People think alliances between countries are forget like high school friendships - on emotional grounds of some sort - No. Not at all. International friendships are always based on "how can I benefit by allying", "what terrible can this guy do to me if I don't ally".

So, India will left out cold if it were to as much as touch Pakistan. We will mostly have to take on BOTH Pakistan and China. Mostly. Can India take on both Pakistan and China alone? From two (or three) flanks? We are surrounded by China's friends. What do we do? Dunno.

A bit more on the Karakoram highway: 1962, remember? What if the Chinese were testing the Indian waters before building the highway? China could've walked through India. Still, they withdrew. They were only testing India's resolve to defend PoK if it came to that. We have all but written off PoK. All Wikipedia articles tell all of PoK as "Pakistan". Not Pakistan administered", but Pakistan. Hurts :(

Here is the Khunjerab Pass (PoK): the "top" of India, the border between India and China, but now Pakistan.

ImageA sign in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir - Source Twitter

Here is the Karakoram highway near Gilgit in India (PoK) and under construction somewhere in the mountains. It should be obvious by now that China does NOT want India to reclaim its land lost to Pakistan in 1947 and 1948 - the strategic Karakoram ranges in Gilgit-Baltistan area of Jammu and Kashmir. It is as simply as that!

ImageKarakoram Highway in PoK part of Jammu and Kashmir state. Pics - Twitter

Here is the entire map of the Karakoram Highway from Kashgar to Rawalpindi. Look where all it passes through.

ImageKarakoram highway map.

China owns Pakistan for most part today:CPEC and all associated stuff are called "China-Pakistan Friendship" something or the other. No friendship there. Just Chinese business. China is not doing business with Pakistan. It is running its business in Pakistan. It is running Pakistan. China pays for protection. If things get push to shove, China can tell US: "We will nationalize your businesses if you don't tell India to withdraw". What will we do?

What we should first realize is that there is no Pakistan. There is only China. Pakistan is just a front. We should deal accordingly. It is in China's interest to keep Kashmir burning. If there is peace in the valley, India MIGHT set its eyes on PoK. Chinese know that India has a strong Prime Minister today who can think of that. China does not want India to even think of getting PoK back. Of course, China did not light the Kashmir fire, but it certainly looks like it is them who keeps it burning that no consensus is reached. So, in addition to water, religion, ego, demographics and so on there is one more reason behind the Kashmir unrest: China and CPEC.

Is dialogue with Pakistan sensible? It is utter foolishness to think that in such a case we can resolve this through dialogue! We talk one thing while issue is another! Issue is NOT what we think is the issue! We and our govt should first understand this. I am sure they have. Hopefully they aren't helpless. China is waging a proxy-proxy-deceptive war which we cannot understand or prove or blame. We need to mobilize some other way.

War with Pakistan? Vadakkus said at the end - I am not generally not a warmonger, but this has gone too far. We should strike. Do something. I only wish something be done about those 17 Indian soldiers who were killed without any provocation. They didn't have to die. Take on both China and Pakistan. Maybe. Can we? I don't know what we should do. Hopefully our hands aren't tied and someone is coming up with a plan to hit them. Hopefully.

Baluchistan's role: Why Pakistan got all worked up when India raised Balochistan? Gwadar is in Balochistan. Much of CPEC infra passes through Balochistan. The CPEC is China's hope at lifting its sagging economy and securing its strategic position in the region. Its future maybe depends on it. Karakoram- Hindukush- Pamir region since ancient times been strategically sensitive. The Silk Road. China wants control of the new Silk Road. If India were to take PoK we would squeeze the Karakoram Highway shut. No more CPEC, Silk Road. China done for. That is the whole game. Highways are primary military conduits rather than civilian. Whoever controls the highway controls the region.

Ultimately.. Pakistan's ultimate aim is to establish an Islamic caliphate. Apart from this China helps them through CPEC. You might disagree with Modi et al but please support the govt right now in whatever action it takes. Politicking can wait. Wait two more months before taking any harsh decisions. Things might change post November.

What do you think India should do now, after reading this fully?


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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby pankajs » 20 Sep 2016 21:26

^^
The analysis is deeply flawed. I stopped reading further when I read this para and one below it.

Why Pakistan is so important for Chinese economy? What if China could get a route through Pakistan to access the Arabian Sea? That line in blue. Look at it, so much distance, money saved! That, is the CPEC. A corridor of highways and railways will run from Kashgar in China to Gwadar in Pakistan (Baluchistan) on the Arabian sea near Iran border. And ALL the infrastructure and associated stuff for CPEC will be constructed for Pakistan by China, free or cost or for negligible loans.

The Qs that immediately come to mind on reading this para an a few below it.

1. What is the cost comparison for transporting Goods via Sea vs Road to Beijing? Per an analysis shared with the thread for a location some way away from the Chinese east coast about the cost differential is MASSIVELY in favor of sea transport. There goes the *money saved argument*. People with little knowledge draw straight lines on the map and reach instant conclusions!

2. Lets assume the POK leg is 8 lane highway through the Karakorum which is the most treacherous terrain in the whole of Himalayas. Will the roads follow terrain or make a straight path right through the mountains? If the reads follow the terrain then the next Q is what will be the average speed of travel? It certainly will be much slower than the speed on the plain say about 40 kmph. So now what will be the throughput of a 8 lane highway with an average speed of 40 kmph? Will it even carry 1% of total China's import/export? So how will the POK road help China bypass the Malacca?


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