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Analyzing CPEC

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shiv
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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby shiv » 24 May 2017 07:01

There is an algorithm that must be applied to all statements that mention the name of any nation with Pakistan - like "India and Pakistan" or "China and Pakistan" or "US and Pakistan"

When you see the name combination <name of nation> and Pakistan you must first ask if the names are mentioned in a positive context or negative context.

That is - if both nations are stated to "gain" from something "This move will be good for "<name of nation> and Pakistan" the statement means that it will be good for Pakistan and the Pakis are hoping to interest the other nation into supporting them for Pakistan's good.

If the statement is "negative" - that is to say "Both nations need to learn something" or "Both nations are suffering" or "Both nations are responsible" - it usually means that Pakistan is responsible and the mention of two nations "<name of nation> and Pakistan" is simply to spread the blame and negativity.

The word combination "<name of nation> and Pakistan" should always turn a warning light on. It is a Pakistani construct. Sorry to go OT

JE Menon
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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby JE Menon » 24 May 2017 11:29

^^100%

Hilarious because totally true.

kapilrdave
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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby kapilrdave » 24 May 2017 14:49

An interesting read. OBOR explained by a blogger. Read in full.
The writing style is funny too.
One Belt One Road

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby Murugan » 24 May 2017 17:20

Naila Inayat‏Verified account
@nailainayat

Follow
More
A #Chinese family including husband, wife and their child kidnapped from Jinnah Town in #Quetta. #Pakistan

Murugan
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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby Murugan » 24 May 2017 17:32

People's Daily,China‏Verified account @PDChina 40m40 minutes ago
More
#BREAKING: Two Chinese nationals kidnapped in #Pakistan, Chinese Embassy in Pakistan confirms

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby arun » 25 May 2017 10:53

The Peoples Republic of China attempt to do propoganda for OBOR,BRI,CPEC by getting the UN ESCAP to write a favorable report embarrasingly blows up and results in the PRC pressuring the UN ESCAP to dissapper the report which I will addresse in my next post.

UN ESCAP report punctures PRC boast that this endevour is the greatest thing since the invention of sliced bread by saying:

"The dispute over Kashmir is also of concern, since the crossing of the CPEC in the region might create geo-political tension with India and ignite further political instability,"


"Afghanistan's political instability could also limit the potential benefits of transit corridors to population centres near Kabul or Kandahar, as those routes traverse southern and eastern Afghanistan where the Taliban are most active,"


"However, social and environmental safeguards are a concern. The CPEC could lead to widespread displacement of local communities. In Balochistan, there are concerns that migrants from other regions of Pakistan will render ethnic Baloch a minority in the province"


"In addition, Hazaras are another minority of concern. If the benefits of the proposed CPEC are reaped by large conglomerates, linked to Chinese or purely Punjabi interests, the identity and culture of the local population could be further marginalised,"


"Marginalisation of local population groups could reignite separatist movements and toughen military response from the government"


And goes on to subtly point out that presently it is NOT founded on principles such as trust, confidence and sharing benefits among participating states :

"In order for the full potential of the BRI to be realised there are several prerequisites. It should be founded on principles such as trust, confidence and sharing benefits among participating states."


Above from Times of India:

CPEC may ignite more India-Pakistan tensions: UN report
Meanwhile press from the Mohammadden Terrorism Fomenting Islamic Republic of Pakista, ARY News reported thus on the UN ESCAP Report:

CPEC might create geo-political tension between India and Pakistan: UN report

arun
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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby arun » 25 May 2017 10:56

Looks like under pressure of the Peoples Republic of China the UN ESCAP report on BRI/OBOR/CPEC that was done at the specific request of PRC has been removed from website of UNESCAP. The PRC it appears has been unable to stomach criticism. My search of UN ESCAP website came up with only a dead 404 link.

Reference however remains on Google.

Search on Google for the phrase “If the benefits of the proposed CPEC are reaped by large conglomerates, linked to Chinese or purely Punjabi interests, the identity and culture of the local population could be further marginalised” shows up it was posted at some time.”

See the entry headed “Download - United Nations ESCAP”, 4 down from the top at the time of my search.

Google Search

Meanwhile the UNESCAP report that was critical of BRI/OBOR/CPEC was apparently posted at the below link but vanished now presumably because China was unable to stomach the slap and pressured UN ESCAP to disappear the report:

http://www.unescap.org/sites/default/fi ... edited.pdf

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby Falijee » 25 May 2017 23:37

This Is What Happens When "Due Diligence" Not Performed !

Long-term CPEC to cost a whopping $300b :mrgreen:

ISLAMABAD - The CPEC long-term plan will cost hundreds of billions of dollars, much more than the $60 billion dollar estimated for the ongoing short-term plan.The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project has been divided into three phases: short-term plan to be completed by 2020, mid-term plan to be completed by 2025 and long-term plan to be completed by 2030.“As per our estimates, the execution of mid-term and long-term plans will increase the cost of the CPEC above $300 billion,” an informed source told The Nation.

Analogy : A friendly banker ( China ) agreed to build a simple house for Pakistan ( cost $ 60 Billion ) as no other banker ( in the world ) wanted to "touch" this insolvent customer living beyond his means ! The "client" ( Pakistan ) could not even afford a down payment, could not furnish collateral but the The banker (China ) agreed nevertheless, because he had eyes on this property all along ! Agreement signed; then customer stated that he wanted 7 bedroom (pillars!) not one; ( as per original plan !) customer ( Pakistan ) wasted no time in wanting the latest electronic gadgets, swimming pool, (indoor and outdoor) , A/c and heating, although it was beyond his means!. Extras to the house cost money ! Ignorant client does not care ! ( his neighbour India has it , so he has to get it too !) Banker (China) went along to "please the client" . When the revised bill for the contract ( $ 300 Billion ) was presented , client Pakistan was shocked !!!)
The long-term plan has seven pillars (i.e 7 bedrooms !)and it is not about a particular project; rather, it identifies the broader areas for the cooperation between China and Pakistan till 2030.
The latest version of the long-term plan, detailed out on just 32 pages, has been forwarded to the Chinese and hopefully they will sign it soon, the source said. The old version of around 67 pages prepared in 2015 has already been redundant, the source added
According the latest version of CPEC’s long-term plan available with The Nation, the seven ( bedrooms !) pillars are: connectivity, energy, industries & industrial parks, agricultural development and poverty alleviation, tourism, cooperation in the areas concerning people’s livelihood and financial cooperation have been identified for future cooperation

Long story short, the customer ( Pakistan ) has no chance in hell to repay the loan for the 7 bedroom luxurious house , that he wanted ( just because his neighbour India has it !). With his income and savings, it would have been better, if the client (Pakistan ) would have been content with a one bedroom house for now, live within his means, accumulate enough savings and then built a 7 bedroom house on the same property . Now the banker ( China ) will end up repossessing this property . The banker aims to himself live in the property :mrgreen:

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby Falijee » 26 May 2017 22:51

THE NEW EAST INDIA COMPANY( OF CHINA ) :mrgreen:

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby LokeshC » 26 May 2017 23:27

I think CPEC is really to colonize Tibet and increase han influence in eastern China.

Will expand more on this later when I am on my pc.

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby ArjunPandit » 26 May 2017 23:33

yensoy wrote:
SRoy wrote:If CPEC succeeds, PLA would enter the scene to protect their investment. Sooner or later PLA divisions would start pouring in Paki Punjab, Norther Areas and Sindh. PLAN would berth in Gwadar.
Looks like a plan to me.


The Hans will wilt like pansies in the Baloch/Sindh summer heat. They don't know what they are getting into. Best of luck to Xi - once he is gone I am sure the whole OBOR nonsense will be rolled back rather quickly.

Honestly, I would not like it to be rolled back that easily ....without chinese getting a taste of pakistaniyat (terrorism), blackmail for loss of investment.

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Analyzing CPEC

Postby Peregrine » 27 May 2017 02:15

Falijee wrote:This Is What Happens When "Due Diligence" Not Performed !

Long-term CPEC to cost a whopping $300b :mrgreen:

ISLAMABAD - The CPEC long-term plan will cost hundreds of billions of dollars, much more than the $60 billion dollar estimated for the ongoing short-term plan.The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project has been divided into three phases: short-term plan to be completed by 2020, mid-term plan to be completed by 2025 and long-term plan to be completed by 2030.“As per our estimates, the execution of mid-term and long-term plans will increase the cost of the CPEC above $300 billion,” an informed source told The Nation.
Falijee Ji :

If the Initial US$ 60 Billion Repayment came to a US$ Annual Repayment then the Total of US$ 300 would be - let us say - about US$ 25 to 30 Billion. Do you think Clapistan has the wherewithal to repay such an amount Annually? Phew!
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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby yensoy » 27 May 2017 09:39

LokeshC wrote:I think CPEC is really to colonize Tibet and increase han influence in eastern China.

Will expand more on this later when I am on my pc.


I assume you meant "increase han influence in western China".

Tibet is already colonized, and Hans are already the big shots in Xinjiang with locals reduced to labourers and marginal farmers.

If any further consolidation is needed, the only party that needs convincing are the Hans themselves. There is a clear trend towards migration from rural areas to cities, and to cities on the coast, especially the mega-cities, with the mega-city locals themselves preferring to migrate to Western countries and Australia. There are any number of incentives for Hans to relocate Westwards to work managerial jobs or start businesses. But it's the total lack of life that is keeping them away. Hard facilities like roads, housing etc are top-notch as they are in the rest of China. But when it comes to soft comforts, central planning and focused execution just doesn't work. Social avenues, entertainment, family ties etc are what keep Hans away from the West, besides the weather is rotten - those that rough it out relocate to the East within a generation.

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby SSridhar » 28 May 2017 12:50

Ha, ha . . .

The Establishment in collaboration with the Chinese and the media, 'plants' the new 'CPEC document' in response to the DAWN leaks earlier. Everything is hunky dory now!! :lol:

The Chinese and the Pakistanis are on an overdrive trying to project that a lot of careful thought and fine tuning has gone into the USD62B (excluding the Northern Cascades) project after the Chinese have been rebuked roundly at the May 14-15 meet and the DAWN had published leaked the Chinese 'colonization' document.

The author is here playing with words. He calls the 'original' document, as exposed by The Dawn, as a 239-page 'draft' document produced in c. 2015 and the new one agreed in Feb. 2017 as a 30-page 'summary' document. So, what is the detailed source document from which this summary is produced? This summary has simply brushed under the carpet all inconvenient facts and 'details would be worked out in future'!! So, the two nations embark on a USD 62B project (with China throwing more & more money each passing day) with project details hanging limbo?

I am posting this in full here, The Real CPEC Plan - Daily Times

As Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif stressed the need for a dialogue with countries outside One Belt One Road to dispel apprehensions about the initiative, national media in Pakistan revealed a 'long-term CPEC plan', which apparently had not been shared with the public so far giving rise to a number of unwarranted concerns and rumors. The critics questioned not only the document but also speculated about the 'real' objectives of CPEC. Many of these concerns however, were completely unfounded and have done more damage than good.

The CPEC plan shared by media was an outdated document. The actual plan that sets the foundation for China Pakistan Economic Corridor is a different document and has seven areas of cooperation.

There is a need to objectively look at what CPEC is and how it is being planned. It is true that CPEC goes way beyond infrastructure development. In fact, the actual CPEC plan aims at forming a "1+4" collaboration pattern with 'CPEC and its four priorities, namely the Gwadar port, energy, infrastructure construction and industrial cooperation'. It must be understood that infrastructure development is just the start of CPEC, paving way for much broader cooperation for economic integration and growth, ranging from industrial collaboration to agriculture development and from tourism to financial integration.

Pakistan is at a transformative moment, where CPEC is expected to usher in a new era of economic development with a newly developing Belt and Road alliance. CPEC is likely to provide a powerful stimulus to our national economy. This however, would need building a national consensus, adequate preparation by the government and private businesses, anticipating and mitigating risks and reaping CPEC's benefits beyond the infrastructure.

In 1960, if Lee Kuan Yew, with his tiny city state of Singapore and a population of merely 2 million poverty-ridden people, had feared the forces of globalisation, Singapore would still be ranking somewhere in bottom few countries of the world, if it all it had managed to exist. Instead Lee linked his country's future to massive forces of globalisation, using foreign direct investment to stimulate growth. Singapore now has world's highest trade-to-GDP ratio.

On the other hand however, history is marred with stories of failures, where countries refused to embrace opportunities coming their way or somehow failed to capitalise on them.

Recent media reports revealing a so-called CPEC plan caused concerns in many quarters and sprang a rumor factory in action. Pakistan, it seems, is at a similar crossroad of history. {AoA. Pakistan is now set to overtake Singapore. Ma'sha Alla'h} How the country will respond to the changing face of globalisation and new economic imperatives would define where would it end up a few decades down the road. CPEC is the litmus test of how we choose our future.

There is therefore a need to separate myths from realities. CPEC is not merely about 'agriculture', 'surveillance of cities' or 'visa-free entry of Chinese nationals', as quoted by media. CPEC is about trade, infrastructure investments and increased Pak-China cooperation in a number of sectors.


The Long-Term Plan Passé


China initially developed a detailed draft document, which was shared and discussed with Pakistan. From Chinese side, China Development Bank (CDB) was commissioned to develop this document, sponsored by National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). This draft plan, a 239-page document dated December 2015, provided many details on Chinese perspective on CPEC. Although the plan was quite broad in its scope, it did propose some very specific details regarding a few sectors.

The New CPEC Plan

More recently however, a 30-page summary plan, dated February 2017, replaced this initial detailed draft and formed the basis of developing a formal agreement on CPEC between Pakistan and China. This summary plan was structured around five chapters. The long-term plan is effective until 2030, spanning short-term projects that will be completed by 2020; medium-term projects by 2025; and long-term projects by 2030 or later. The summary plan only provides broad principles of cooperation, to set the tone for working out the details in future.

The plan recognises that economic and social development {what social development?} ties between China and Pakistan have entered into a new phase in recent years, with both sides now developing "multiple wheels" to drive their bilateral relations forward. It states that 'the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, starting from Kashgar in Xinjiang, China, and reaching Karachi and Gwadar, southern coastal cities in Pakistan via the Khunjerab Pass and several other nodal areas, constitutes a key platform and a central task for cementing China-Pakistan economic relations'.

What is CPEC?

CPEC represents a portfolio of projects that are either under progress or will be undertaken as a result of China-Pakistan cooperation under the landmark Chinese Belt and Road initiative, deepening China's connectivity with the world. Presently, the total size of the projects envisaged under CPEC stands at USD 54 billion, upgraded from USD 46 billion. The portfolio primarily includes major road and other infrastructure projects, establishment of special economic zones and an improved supply of electricity, besides an ambitious optical fiber cable project. It is expected that road network developed under CPEC will link China with Gwadar and other ports and will lead to development along the route and beyond. From within the China, the northwestern autonomous region of Xinjiang specifically is expected to immediately benefit from this improved connectivity.

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While all these projects have varying timelines, some of the projects are categorised as 'early harvest' projects under CPEC that are being fast tracked. Five joint working groups have been formed under Joint Coordination Committee (JCC) of CPEC to drive their respective areas including: long-term planning, energy, transportation infrastructure, industrial cooperation and Gwadar port. On Chinese side, National Development and Reform Commission of China houses the JCC secretariat, whereas in Pakistan Ministry of Planning, Development and Reforms of Pakistan has taken over this role.

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Areas of Cooperation Under CPEC


Key areas of cooperation under CPEC, as provided in the plan are outlined below to clear the myths around what it entails:

Connectivity forms the cornerstone of CPEC as Pakistan fits the puzzle perfectly due to its locational advantage, whereby China's traditionally backward region of Xinjiang can be connected with Gwadar port, thereby improving trade relations with ASEAN Central Asian and European countries. Any industry where transportation costs matter, it would make business sense for Chinese to relocate their industry closer to the port, and presumably in Pakistan, if possible.

Moreover China is looking to deploy its capital in infrastructure investments around the world and Pakistan with its critical infrastructure needs makes a good candidate for such investments. It is important that Pakistan's investment in infrastructure should keep pace with the stipulated growth in economy.

On e-government front, Pakistan has taken up a number of safe cities projects. Two of the projects, which are already initiated in Lahore and Islamabad, were won by a large reputable Chinese company through competitive tendering. Other global companies with similar technical offerings are more expensive and therefore Chinese involvement has resulted in more competitive tendering. China knows that there is an opportunity to deepen this investment as Pakistani government has shown interest to expand the network of safe cities.

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Energy takes the lion's share of the committed CPEC investments, much of which would be invested in power generation projects. However, CPEC also encompasses other critical areas such as alternative energy, power grids, etc. Bringing such areas in the fold of CPEC does not mean that these opportunities will only be available to Chinese and instead would qualify these for financing under CPEC, if required.

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Industries and industrial parks is one area, where Pakistan has the greatest potential to gain but there is a need to proceed with cautious optimism. How does China see these opportunities unfolding in this area are through following the private sector. All the industrial and business ambitions highlighted so far are based on existing Chinese investments. In household appliance sector for instance, the Haier & Ruba Economic Zone provides a perfect example, which was established in 2006 and considered a remarkable success. In addition to Haier, other famous enterprises from the Chinese household appliance industry, like Gree and Changhong have also invested in Pakistan. These investments have been successful and Chinese know that there is a potential to deepen these investments.

Moreover, there is no denying that Pakistan, with a population of 200 million people provides an attractive market, not just for Chinese but for any international player. Any initial investments are likely to be in industries catering to local consumer markets to ensure safer returns for investors. Whether Pakistan will be able to attract Chinese and other international investors to set up industries for export will to a great extent depend on how well the government attract and facilitate these investors through providing health investment climate and appropriate skilled workforce. The concerns about local industry facing tougher competition are well founded to some extent but in the longer run, such pressures have been known to beneficial for local industry making it more competitive. This however, would mean local businessmen gearing up for this new scenario and look for new opportunities and partnerships to grow and transfer technology rather than be isolated, inward looking and rely on protectionist policies.

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Agricultural development is a priority area under CPEC and there is a strong Chinese interest to invest in agricultural inputs production and agriculture infrastructure. Efficient logistics provide an essential pre-requisite for an effective participation in global agriculture value chains. Pakistan with its untapped agriculture potential provides a tremendous opportunity, where targeted investments can generate healthy returns for both sides. The priority interventions manifest areas, where Pakistan has long been trying to seek help from international donors.

Contrary to popular belief, there are no existing demands from Chinese to 'give out thousands of acres of land'. Instead China wants to adopt a cautious approach in certain areas. That is the reason, why even the initial draft long-term plan mostly talked about 'demonstration' projects' especially in areas of improved technological cooperation. Any future interest of China in agriculture would be contingent upon how Pakistani side responds these demonstration projects.

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Tourism is likely to grow with opening up of national economy. Despite having numerous World Heritage Sites in the country, international tourism in Pakistan, unfortunately claims only 0.4% of GDP. Foreign direct investment in tourism sector is likely to place Pakistan on international tourist circuit.

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Financial cooperation forms an important part of CPEC. Free and unrestricted flow of capital provides an important pre-requisite for attracting foreign direct investment. The proposed initiatives stress on reducing the reliance of both countries on dollars or euros, for bilateral trade as well as to create access for infrastructure projects in Pakistan to newly created institutions for Belt and Road like Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank.

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CPEC - The Future

Pakistan is a developing country, which has long faced economic constraints limiting its growth. China, our next-door neighbor, on the other hand is well on its way to becoming world's largest economy. Fortunately, the world offers relevant precedents on what happened to countries in similar situations.

Mexico, a few decades ago, wrestled with the decision to join NAFTA, anticipating the adverse consequences of opening up to a mammoth economy like that of USA. History however, provides evidence that within twenty years after signing of NAFTA, US imports from Mexico grew by 500 percent.

Turkey is another example that signed Customs Union Agreement with EU in 1996, subjecting its industry to far superior European quality standards. The country ended up gaining immensely from this economic integration. The McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) has shown that openness to global cross-border flows of goods, services, finance, people, and information promotes faster GDP growth, accounting for 15 to 25 percent of world GDP growth every year.

Economic isolation has rarely helped any country to grow. Nobody is expecting Pakistan to open the 'floodgates' and it is up to us how we plan to benefit from CPEC and the opportunity to integrate within a newly developing massive trade network. If China has laid out its objectives on how it intends to benefit from CPEC, it is very well within its legitimate rights. Now it's our turn to stipulate how we envision our industry and economy to benefit from CPEC. {Do you even know what you want? Can you articulate that to China?}

The CPEC plan lays out a number of important steps that need to be undertaken. These include making full use of existing arrangements such as Bilateral Investment Protection Agreement, Free Trade Agreement, Agreement on Service Trade in Free Trade Zones, Agreement on Expanding and Deepening Bilateral Economic and Trade Cooperation, and Framework Agreement on Energy Cooperation, which need to be re-worked in the light of opportunities offered under CPEC.

Such association at government-to-government level must be complemented with business-to-business partnerships and joint ventures between Pakistan and Chinese enterprises. There is a need to promote more meaningful collaborations, where Pakistani businesses can provide access to local market, trained workforce, licensing, existing supply chain, etc. and in return should look for sophisticated technology, newer capabilities and increased share in the global trade pie.{This is not how the Chinese look at it, isn't it? You are even afraid of saying that fact in the open and are couching it as a 'need'}

A private-sector led strategy, with a focus on economic integration with the Belt and Road network, is what Pakistan needs to stimulate it's economic growth.

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby anupmisra » 31 May 2017 17:13

Chinese firm gets LoI for Gwadar coal power project
All hail iron and coal brother, china!

The Private Power and Infrastructure Board (PPIB) on Tuesday issued a Letter of Interest (LoI) to China Communications Construction Company (CCCC) for the development of 300-megawatts imported coal-fired power project in Gwadar at a cost of Rs55 billion
Gwadar is blessed with a deep-sea, warm-water port, which is considered a crucial link between the ambitious One Belt, One Road and Maritime Silk Road projects.
portfolio of power generation projects being processed by PPIB has increased to nine coal-based projects of 8,220MW
The Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) of the cabinet allowed the award of Rs55bn worth of 300MW coal power project in Gwadar to a Chinese firm a month ago without bidding at a single-point meeting


https://www.dawn.com/news/1336376/chine ... er-project

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Analyzing CPEC

Postby Peregrine » 04 Jun 2017 14:21

X Posted on the STFUP & OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications Threads

Sri Lanka for sale?

On May 29, the BBC asked, “Is Sri Lanka up for sale?” According to the BBC, “Sri Lanka is allowing Chinese firms to take over key assets, as it struggles to repay loans it was given by China”. In 2007, the EXIM Bank of China began funding Sri Lanka’s Hambantota Port. The port was completed at a cost of $1.3 billion. The Chinese financed and built the 900MW Norochcholai Power Plant at a cost of $1.35 billion. In 2010, Beijing lent Sri Lanka $200 million to build an airport. In 2012, China lent an additional $810 million.

In 2011, the Mahinda Rajapaksa International Cricket Stadium was built at a cost of Rs700 million. In 2013, the Mattala Rajapaksa International Airport (near Hambantota) was built at a cost of Rs26 billion. The Southern Expressway was built at a cost of Rs776 billion. The Hambantota Sports Zone was built at a cost of Rs15 billion. In 2013, China lent to Sri Lanka and built $272-million railway.

Between 2008 and 2015, China lent $6 billion in aid and loans. Fast forward to 2017. The port of Hambantota now lies, more or less, abandoned. The Rajapaksa National Tele Cinema now lies, more or less, abandoned. The Mahinda Rajapaksa International Cricket Stadium now lies, more or less, abandoned. The Mattala Rajapaksa International Airport now lies, more or less, abandoned.

Lo and behold, Sri Lanka is having trouble repaying the debt incurred to build the port of Hambantota. As a consequence, Beijing has now taken over four of the seven container berths on a 35-year lease. Beijing is also acquiring 15,000 acres around Hambantota.

Lo and behold, Sri Lanka is having trouble repaying the debt incurred to build the coal-fired Norochcholai Power Plant. On April 17, 2017, the power plant broke down. On March 13, 2016, the power plant had ceased operations. In 2012, there was a leak in one of the boilers. Sri Lanka wants China to take over the power plant.

Lo and behold, Sri Lanka is having trouble repaying the debt incurred to build the Mattala Rajapaksa International Airport. Sri Lanka offered China control over some of the largest projects – including the Mattala International Airport and the Port of Hambantota – in return for debt relief.

According to Forbes, “Sri Lanka has a debt problem. After more than a decade of taking out huge loans to build large-scale infrastructure – most of which hasn’t yet produced adequate returns – the country is now struggling to make payments, and is looking for another way out”. Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe is prepared to give control of large projects to Chinese companies. But according to Forbes, China’s Ambassador Yi Xianliang has clearly told PM Ranil Wickremesinghe that: “We are not interested. We want our money, not your empty airport”.

Sri Lanka is having trouble repaying its debt. Sri Lanka now owes $58.3 billion to foreign lenders and 95.4 percent of Sri Lankan government’s revenue is now going into debt-servicing.

According to the BBC, “We don’t like our land being given away to China,” says fisherman Aruna Roshantha, adding that “Not just China, if any country comes and takes land from Sri Lanka, we don’t like it. The government should protect our land, not sell it”.
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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby deejay » 04 Jun 2017 18:16

Pardon the less serious note but I had to ask it since its been torturing my head for last few days and I hope I can find some answers here:
On a video linked on the Terrorist State Multi Media thread I heard a CPEC cost of US$ 45 Billion, TSP will pay back at US$ 6 Billion for 15 years. US$ 3 Billion as principal and US$ 3 Billion as interest per year. That is 90 Billion USD in 15 years. Chinese have a double your money scheme going on in China and the aam eleven peg of the Chinese Corporate, it seems has bought the scheme. Now if that be the equation, a question to all interested souls - Calculate the rate of interest for Pakistan and impact on the growth of population in UAE? You do not think the two are related, give it some heavy thought. Infact the relation is mentioned on the same video or an adjacent video on the same thread.

A secondary thought that comes from recent Puki news though not directly correlated to CPEC but ultimately will find a correlation - Puki claimed somewhere recently that their annul per capita income was US$ 1,629. And no, this is not PPP figure but real per capita GDP figure. So at what population figure will Pakistan have a GDP of US$ 300 Billion (it has surpassed that as per I-shaq Dar)?

Ref per capita figure : https://www.samaa.tv/pakistan/2017/05/pakistans-per-capita-income-has-seen-growth-and-heres-why/
ISLAMABAD: According to the Economic Survey of Pakistan 2016-17, the per capita income of the country has recorded an increase as compared to last year and there are a couple of reasons why this has taken place.

As per the survey unveiled by Federal Finance Minister Ishaq Dar on Thursday, the per capita income in dollar terms has increased from $ 1,531 in FY 2016 to $ 1,629 in FY 2017.

The per capita income has registered an increase in dollar terms due to stability of the rupee in the international market as well as low population growth of Pakistan, according to the Economic Survey of Pakistan 2016-17.

Growth of higher real GDP has also been cited as one of the causes of the phenomena.


Ref for GDP numbers https://en.dailypakistan.com.pk/headline/govt-presents-economic-survey-report-2016-17/

As per wiki chacha https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Per_capita_income
Per capita income or average income measures the average income earned per person in a given area (city, region, country, etc.) in a specified year. It is calculated by dividing the area's total income by its total population.[1][2]

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby abhischekcc » 05 Jun 2017 13:36

shiv wrote:There is an algorithm that must be applied to all statements that mention the name of any nation with Pakistan - like "India and Pakistan" or "China and Pakistan" or "US and Pakistan"

When you see the name combination <name of nation> and Pakistan you must first ask if the names are mentioned in a positive context or negative context.

That is - if both nations are stated to "gain" from something "This move will be good for "<name of nation> and Pakistan" the statement means that it will be good for Pakistan and the Pakis are hoping to interest the other nation into supporting them for Pakistan's good.

If the statement is "negative" - that is to say "Both nations need to learn something" or "Both nations are suffering" or "Both nations are responsible" - it usually means that Pakistan is responsible and the mention of two nations "<name of nation> and Pakistan" is simply to spread the blame and negativity.

The word combination "<name of nation> and Pakistan" should always turn a warning light on. It is a Pakistani construct. Sorry to go OT

This logic can be put into a Machine Learning program to analyse paki news.

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby SBajwa » 08 Jun 2017 01:36

Since China drives on the right and Bakistan drives on the left., will they load/unload on Baki trucks when entering bakistan or not?

Has this been figured out yet?

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby nirav » 08 Jun 2017 02:34

With the Chinese continuously creating hurdles for us @ soup treaties I wonder when will we start making noise about CPEC passing through our territory and fire some SMERCH in that direction.

The chinis come in our neighborhood with their Ponzi scheme, go through our lands and we quietly let them get away with it ?

If the pakis were so keen on selling out their country, they could have simply asked us, we could have easily coughed up 50 odd billion dollars.

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Re: Analyzing CPEC~~

Postby Pulikeshi » 08 Jun 2017 10:29

No noise is necessary... more like better lyrics and music
why not just create spoofs of the silly videos that the Cheeni produced....
it would be so easy to mess with the video below ~ even a high school student know how to produce better propaganda videos...

The Belt connects the land (what is this belt to black and blue the land? :P)
The Road moves on the Sea :shock:
The promise that they hold
Is joint indebtedness
We are creating dictators
We are making tin pottery
The future we are dreaming of
Starts with the bandit army!

The future is regressing now
Oh~oh~oh-oh-oh
We share our commie mess
Oh~oh~oh-oh-oh
...... blah.... blah.... skull duggery

I am sure some of you kids can do better than my sad lyrics! :rotfl:
Have not been this entertained in years ~ esp when this scheet makes the naPaki dream of inevitable eschatological outcomes for their mis-state!


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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby Peregrine » 08 Jun 2017 16:15

SBajwa wrote:Since China drives on the right and Bakistan drives on the left., will they load/unload on Baki trucks when entering bakistan or not?

Has this been figured out yet?
SBajwa Ji :

An alternative for Trucks would be to change the "Tractors" and have the Containers hauled by a Right Hand Drive Tractor.

You will note the solution to the "Problem" in the UK which receives Thousands of Trucks and Buses. The Left Hand Drive Buses go about their Business without any problem.
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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby anupmisra » 08 Jun 2017 16:31

SBajwa wrote:Since China drives on the right and Bakistan drives on the left., will they load/unload on Baki trucks when entering bakistan or not?

Has this been figured out yet?


No worries for an average pakjabi truck driver. They drive in the middle of the road anyway.

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Re: Analyzing CPEC~~

Postby anupmisra » 08 Jun 2017 16:37

Pulikeshi wrote:No noise is necessary...


Here's more to digest, if you have the stomach (note: it's all India-centric):


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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby ramana » 09 Jun 2017 00:48

India already supports the #INSTC which transports from Mumbai to Moscow via Chahbahar.

So they don't need to support CPEC for that.

Its like putting your neck in Paki hands and ask them to wring it.

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby Haresh » 09 Jun 2017 17:27

Working in the CPEC area is a bit dangerous for the chinese

Isis claims to kill Chinese couple studying and teaching in Pakistan

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/ ... e-pakistan

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby Parsheau » 10 Jun 2017 18:18

shiv wrote:
williams wrote: I just spend the last few days looking at all the roads around this area. Chinese have done amazing job to encircle us around the Korakoram pass - DBO - SSN area. I bet some of the Jingoistic items released in the media - Tanks, landing of C130 in DBO etc., are late (even panic) reaction to catch up.
.

I did a study of exactly this 2-3 years ago and my article is online on DFI. Perhaps you have seen it. Please read and comment
http://defenceforumindia.com/chinese-ro ... -chin-1978



Excellent analysis Shiv!

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby Parsheau » 10 Jun 2017 18:36

India is probably connecting with OBOR through Chahbahar and Bangladesh-Burma but of course never through CPEC. However the Pakistanis are suddenly going to find large tracts of land and industrial areas not owned by locals but Chinese-with locals being kept out at the gates - we will have to see how that works out.

A resultant overall jump in trade and productivity in Pakistan could well become a a factor for peace as it could be like in India's case lower the threshold for tolerance for crises - leading the Chinese to force Pak to tone down the jihad infrastructure.

If the straights of Malacca are a jugular vein India can potentially cut Chinese Energy supplies with, then an oil pipeline running up Gilgit not far from our borders is surely one too. Perhaps the Chinese are thinking out of the box about the future.

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby Peregrine » 10 Jun 2017 23:57

Parsheau wrote:India is probably connecting with OBOR through Chahbahar and Bangladesh-Burma but of course never through CPEC. However the Pakistanis are suddenly going to find large tracts of land and industrial areas not owned by locals but Chinese-with locals being kept out at the gates - we will have to see how that works out.

A resultant overall jump in trade and productivity in Pakistan could well become a a factor for peace as it could be like in India's case lower the threshold for tolerance for crises - leading the Chinese to force Pak to tone down the jihad infrastructure.

If the straights of Malacca are a jugular vein India can potentially cut Chinese Energy supplies with, then an oil pipeline running up Gilgit not far from our borders is surely one too. Perhaps the Chinese are thinking out of the box about the future.
Parsheau Ji :

The following Articles do indicate that the Chinese are indeed thinking out of box with the following Projects :

1. Bypassing the Malacca Straits for the Supply of Natural Gas and Oil :

With Oil And Gas Pipelines, China Takes A Shortcut Through Myanmar - Eric Meyer

2. It is impractical to Transport Natural Gas and Crude by Pipe Lines from Gwadar to Xinjiang :

THE CPEC PIPEDREAM AND WHY GWADAR AS A PORT IS OVERRATED

In addition it is also impractical to transport Oil from Gwadar to Xinjiang by Rail as a 300,000 Tonnes carrying VLCC will need 6000 Railway Tankers, possibly with 50 Tanker Wagons per Train, along with 240 Locomotives (Will need Two Locomotives per Train) as they have to climb up to over 15,000 feet above Sea Level.

Remember the Railway or Pipe Lines will have to use the Karakorum Highway which connects China and Pakistan across the Karakoram mountain range, through the Khunjerab Pass, at an elevation of 4,693 metres (15,397 ft) above sea level.

So China has the Port of Kyaukpyu in Myanmar - about 75 Miles South East of Akyab - new name Sitwe and does not need the Malacca Straits to transport Oil to the Eastern Chinese Seaboard.

Finally Xinjiang, I believe, has about 50% of the Chinese Oil Reserves so it does not need Oil though Gwadar!

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby shiv » 11 Jun 2017 13:01

Parsheau wrote:
A resultant overall jump in trade and productivity in Pakistan could well become a a factor for peace as it could be like in India's case lower the threshold for tolerance for crises - leading the Chinese to force Pak to tone down the jihad infrastructure.

With respect this is a misunderstanding of Pakistan and Pakistanis. The Chinese will be able to do nothing to curb Pakistani actions. On the other hand I personally foresee that Chinese ownership of Pakistan wiil not go far. The more the Chinese settle in the more will be the attacks on them. Right now the corrupt cheap but rich Paki elite - sonsabiches that they are are simply looking to make a killing from Chinese investment. They do not give a rat's ass for actual development. These people are the loudest proclaimers of the great advantages of CPEC. The Chinese surely understand that they will never manage to build a railway line through that region. Already they feel that a pipeline is useless. The Chinese are given to grand gestures and in a world where they are opposed by USA, India, Japan, Vietnam, Taiwan, Korea - they are hardly going to admit that the Pakistanis are gradually shoving a finger up Chinese butt while absorbing as much money as possible. They will stick to the taller than mountain, sweeter than honey rhetoric.

Pakistanis are not Sri Lankans. Sri Lankans kicked out outsiders including Indians. Pakistanis let foreigners in and hoodwinked the Americans for half a century and made a lot of money - but that only made the elite rich. it did not make Pakistan better. Chinese investment will need to put money up front and Pakis will not return one paisa. If the Chinese press Pakistan - they will simply start killing Chinese on the ground. They don't give a damn. Its a mafia. You know how French engineers were killed because of no kickbacks paid in a submarine deal. That nation is hardly going to allow a China takeover. Pakistan is owned by the elite. They will cede control only so far as they get paid. And they will not payback.

Take this as a prediction

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby shiv » 11 Jun 2017 13:08

Parsheau wrote:
shiv wrote:I did a study of exactly this 2-3 years ago and my article is online on DFI. Perhaps you have seen it. Please read and comment
http://defenceforumindia.com/chinese-ro ... -chin-1978



Excellent analysis Shiv!

Hey thanks - I just saw this message.

I now have a series of videos of Chinese infrastructure from Arunachal to Aksai Chin

the video playlist is here
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azQlfT9 ... i5uVH9q5q-

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby chetak » 11 Jun 2017 13:10

@Parsheau.

if we join the CPEC, the hans and the pakis will f(uk us covertly and if we don't, then they will fu(k us overtly but fu(k us they will and make no mistake about it.

It would be really foolish and delusional on our part to think otherwise.

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby shiv » 11 Jun 2017 13:36

As as aside I would like to paraphrase Shivshankar Menon from his book "Choices". He speaks of differences of opinion among strategists and theorists as to whether nations work as "realists" where they respond every time for their own advantage or as "civilizationists" where they show typical civilizational responses based on their history. He concluded that probably both are true.

As I see it - unfortunately India's own "civilizational" perspective is "humanist" where we look for goodness and cooperation in other in exchange for goodness, sharing and empathy from us.

Civilizationally Islam does not give a damn for goodness & cooperation, and China behaves greedily realist. We cannot expect any humanistic "give and take" from either of them. We must neither expect nor give anything until we get paid. In advance.

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Analyzing CPEC

Postby Peregrine » 11 Jun 2017 14:12

X Posted on the STFUP Thread

Capital suggestion: Venezuela’s debt

From 2007 to 2014, China lent Venezuela a wholesome $63 billion. A decade ago, Venezuela’s Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) – the Venezuelan state-owned oil and gas company – entered into an oil-for-loans deal with China’s state-run China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC).

Under the agreement, Venezuela borrowed the amount from China and “agreed to pay back in crude and fuel deliveries to state-run Chinese firms”.

Lo and behold, in 2014, the decade-long oil boom ended. According to the Foreign Policy magazine, “With most lending agreed to when oil hovered at more than $100 a barrel, as it did for most of 2007-2014, it seemed a good deal for both sides. However, when oil dropped to close to $30 a barrel in January 2016, this caused Venezuela’s price tag for serving its debt to explode. To repay Beijing today, Venezuela must now ship two barrels of oil for every one it originally agreed to”.

According to Reuters: “At the end of January 2017, [the] PDVSA was late on nearly 10 million barrels of refined products…with shipments delayed by as much as 10 months. It also failed to make timely deliveries of another 3.2 million barrels of crude shipments to CNPC”. The report added: “Because oil accounts for almost all of Venezuela’s export revenue, PDVSA’s crisis extends to a citizenry suffering through triple-digit inflation and food shortages reminiscent of the waning days of the Soviet Union”.

According to CNBC, the satellite business news television: “PDVSA clearly does not have enough oil or money to satisfy its many creditors. At this point, everybody is trying to collect pending debts from PDVSA by receiving cargoes. But production is not enough”.

Foreign Policy further opines: “Large-scale lending projects without a focus on their economic viability and the repayment capacity of the borrowers are hardly the soundest basis for financial diplomacy of the sort China is attempting to practice. At best, it will lead to mutual suspicions and tensions between lender and borrower. At worst, it will prove financially ruinous for countries burdened with debts they cannot repay in foreign currency they do not possess. With oil prices down, the country is unable even to repair rigs or pay workers to generate income, and the government now faces the prospect of a mass uprising. But Venezuela’s ruinous state has more to do with China than one might think”.

Kevin Daly, an emerging market debt specialist, told the Financial Times, “The backdrop suggests we are moving closer to a credit event. The [Venezuelan] government is becoming more dysfunctional, the protests are becoming more fevered and it does feel like there could be splits in the government and military”.

Ricardo Hausmann, Venezuela’s former planning minister and current Harvard University professor, has called Venezuela’s debt “hunger bonds”. He has alleged that the current government is “siphoning money away from food imports to meet interest and principal payments on country’s…external debt”.

According to Al Jazeera, “Venezuela’s capital, Caracas, has seen almost daily demonstrations in recent weeks, some of which have turned violent. The country is in the middle of a crippling economic crisis that has led to high food prices and a lack of basic goods”.

Lo and behold, “Venezuela’s bonds are [now] the highest-yielding of any emerging market security due to concerns about default”. Foreign Policy concludes that “Venezuela’s road to disaster is littered with Chinese cash”.

Ub Tera Kya Ho Ga Clapistania? : The Chinese Debt (All about) CPEC : US$ 60 Billion, Casacade Dams : US$ 50 Billion and Pakistan Railways : US$ 30 Billion. Total is about US$ 140 Billion - You all ain't got "Any Oil"

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby shiv » 11 Jun 2017 15:01

^^The difference may be Islam.

In Venezuela people blame the government. In Pakistan the people know that it is Allah who rules, not the government. The "government" will point out that Pakistan is being bled by evil Chinese creditors whom Allah will surely punish. "It's not us. It's them"

And sure as hell Allah will punish. Chinese projects will be sabotaged, Chinese workers kidnapped and killed. The Pakistan army will promise to control this "Indian sponsored terrorism" and ask for more money and arms - which is what they did to America, So the Paki army will bleed more money from China while the projects go nowhere

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby anupmisra » 11 Jun 2017 18:04

Paki-chini iron relationship summarized in the revisited classic dialog of Bollywood:

Chini-lord: I have money, I have technology, I have armaments, I have fame and respect...what do you have, beggar boy? Don't give me the cliche "Ma". We have that, too.

Image

Paki-beggar: Screw Ma. We have something even better. Land!! And, if we play our cards right, it can be all yours.

Image

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby CalvinH » 11 Jun 2017 23:23

shiv wrote:
Parsheau wrote:

Excellent analysis Shiv!

Hey thanks - I just saw this message.

I now have a series of videos of Chinese infrastructure from Arunachal to Aksai Chin

the video playlist is here
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azQlfT9 ... i5uVH9q5q-


Excellent....the video playlist cut my learning curve by couple of months at least....

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Analyzing CPEC

Postby Peregrine » 12 Jun 2017 04:43

X Posted on the OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications & STFUP Threads

After OBOR gets ready, Pakistan will become China’s colony: S Akbar Zaidi

NEW DELHI: Pakistan will become a colony of China once the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) -- flagship project under the One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative is operationalised, contended top Pak political economist S Akbar Zaidi on the very day the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit praised Beijing’s mega connectivity plan.

In a lecture titled “Has China taken over Pakistan” organised in Kolkata by think tank ‘Calcutta Research Group’ on Friday night Zaidi noted that the CPEC initiative is the most discussed but the least transparent among all the foreign initiatives in Pakistan.

“It is indeed a game changer, but not in the way our ruling classes have projected it to be. It will enslave Pakistan and undermine its sovereignty,” alleged Zaidi author of pioneering books --‘Military Civil Society and democratisation in Pakistan’ and ‘Issues in Pakistan’s Economy’.

“CPEC is a part of China’s OBOR initiative to expand its influence in the world and Pakistan is just the geographical space used by Beijing to reach the warm waters of the Persian Gulf. But in the process, Beijing blueprint will ensure complete control over Pakistan,” Zaidi further alleged.

Incidentally Zaidi’s comments came on the very day when SCO praised China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). India, which went to the Summit as an observer and became a member, however, was not party to the final Summit document on this occasion. CPEC is the very project that has irked India as it passes through PoK besides the fact that OBOR or BRI initiative lacks transparency and is being implemented in a unilateral fashion.

Speaking at SCO Summit PM Narendra Modi took a dig at connectivity projects that infringes on sovereignty. Zaidi quoted Pak Senator Tahir Mashhadi, chairman of the standing committee on planning and development, who had described the CPEC corridor as the advent of “another East India Company is in the offing.” China has announced to invest whopping $ 62 bn in CPEC.

The most dangerous implication of the CPEC would be that Pakistan’s foreign relations, especially those with India, will be determined by the Chinese, the Pak scholar warned. “Pakistan’s obsession with China and CPEC will prevent any rapprochement between India and Pakistan unless the Chinese themselves initiate such a process and that they would do only if that fits into their grand design in the region. With China taking over Pakistan, providing it with undisclosed amount of investments, any any argument of increasing trade and economic cooperation between India and Pakistan lose out completely.” Zaidi blamed the Pakistani ruling elite for leading the country down the path of enslavement.

“Our ruling classes, especially the military, have first lived with the influence of US imperialism, then allowed unusual degree of Saudi intrusion in domestic, cultural and social affairs. Now they have prostrated themselves before Chinese imperial designs.”

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby ramana » 13 Jun 2017 00:19

China loan interest rates will drive Pak, BD and Nepal to bankruptcy

https://twitter.com/kamnaAKrish/status/ ... 2909054976

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby ArjunPandit » 13 Jun 2017 09:09

even china would have thought everyone that it would unravel like this. If all these countries go bankrupt there is no way that chinese can take over all of these and not to forget pakistan. Sooner or later they will meet the same fate as US in pakistan: Cut your losses and save your own mush first.


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