Analyzing CPEC

[shiv]

Shitistan has 180-200 million beepal. No mention of them in the Chinese document. This is either just a handwave or a project that is destined to phail

[manjgu]

will the porkis be allowed to keep beards and topi after the hans arrive?

[Aditya_V]

Chetak, Can there be something about the rubbish map posted in the article you have posted? I think link with important quotes without that map would be better.

[Avtar Singh]

I always feared america might try to do an East India Co mk2 on India..
China is pulling off an East India Co mk2 on pakistan... very nice.

Note the “disputed territory” annotation on the map. India should make sure this same map is published with “disputed territory” annotation on PoK.

This project will keep the Pak army busy securing the chinese part of PakChinistan and hopefully bring many chinese into ISIS crosshairs, I am sure the americans will be able to sponsor these activities. It will drive many ordinary pakistanis into this fold as the resentment builds.

We can see how the Han compare to the ASEs (anglo saxon elites) when it comes to being colonialists.. After all that is what they have always dreamed of.

India should build its economy and when the time is right put a spanner in the works.

[chanakyaa]

We don't have to wait for the economy to grow. As a good neighbor, we can help Pukistan reach the status of agriculture powerhouse by diverting every drop of water under IWT to Indian side, before nullifying illegal treaty itself. I heard that Chinese seeds are so powerful that they can grow without water.

[Falijee]

CROSS POSTED FROM PAKISTAN THREAD

More Confirmation That China Wants To Turn Pakistan Into An Economic Colony !

Exclusive: CPEC master plan revealed

Details from original documents laying out the CPEC long term plan are publicly disclosed for the first time.

Plan eyes agriculture
Large surveillance system for cities
Visa-free entry for Chinese nationals

The floodgates are about to open. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif arrived in Beijing over the weekend to participate in the One Belt, One Road summit, and the top item on his agenda is to finalise the Long Term Plan (LTP) for the China-Pakistan Economic Corri­dor. [See next tab for details on how the plan was made].

Dawn has acquired exclusive access to the original document, and for the first time its details are being publicly disclosed here. The plan lays out in detail what Chinese intentions and priorities are in Pakistan for the next decade and a half, details that have not been discussed in public thus far.It is unfair to blame Ganja Sharif for this non-disclosure

For instance, thousands of acres of agricultural land will be leased out to Chinese enterprises to set up “demonstration projects” in areas ranging from seed varieties to irrigation technology. A full system of monitoring and surveillance will be built in cities from Peshawar to Karachi, with 24 hour video recordings on roads and busy marketplaces for law and order. A national fibreoptic backbone will be built for the country not only for internet traffic, ( social media will have to say "goodbye" to Facebook, Twitter, Google and other search engines ; Chinese style censorship coming soon ) but also terrestrial distribution of broadcast TV, which will cooperate with Chinese media in the “dissemination of Chinese culture”. For Chinese culture read Chinese propaganda How are the Pakis going to be de-addicted from Indian movies and other Indian TV programmes . Does the "master plan" call for making pork products "halal" in Pakiland

The plan envisages a deep and broad-based penetration of most sectors of Pakistan’s economy as well as its society by Chinese enterprises and culture. Its scope has no precedent in Pakistan’s history in terms of how far it opens up the domestic economy to participation by foreign enterprises. In some areas the plan seeks to build on a market presence already established by Chinese enterprises, eg Haier in household appliances, ChinaMobile and Huawei in telecommunications and China Metallurgical Group Corporation (MCC) in mining and minerals. Will the RAPE class go in for this third class Chini consumer -maal is another question !

In other cases, such as textiles and garments, cement and building materials, fertiliser and agricultural technologies (among others) it calls for building the infrastructure and a supporting policy environment to facilitate fresh entry. A key element in this is the creation of industrial parks, or special economic zones, which “must meet specified conditions, including availability of water…perfect infrastructure, sufficient supply of energy and the capacity of self service power”, according to the plan.

But the main thrust of the plan actually lies in agriculture, contrary to the image of CPEC as a massive industrial and transport undertaking, involving power plants and highways. The plan acquires its greatest specificity, and lays out the largest number of projects and plans for their facilitation, in agriculture. Are hog/ pig farms going to be established in this Islam pasand country

For agriculture, the plan outlines an engagement that runs from one end of the supply chain all the way to the other. From provision of seeds and other inputs, like fertiliser, credit and pesticides, Chinese enterprises will also operate their own farms, processing facilities for fruits and vegetables and grain. Logistics companies will operate a large storage and transportation system for agrarian produce.It identifies opportunities for entry by Chinese enterprises in the myriad dysfunctions that afflict Pakistan’s agriculture sector. For instance, “due to lack of cold-chain logistics and processing facilities, 50% of agricultural products go bad during harvesting and transport”, it notes ( Long article revealing for the first time, the long term intentions of the Chinese vis- a- vis Pakistan !)

Tourism and recreation

Finance and risk

Conclusion
It is not clear how much of the plan will be earnestly followed up and how much is there simply to evince interest from the Pakistani side. In the areas of interest contained in the plan, it appears access to the full supply chain of the agrarian economy is a top priority for the Chinese. After that the capacity of the textile spinning sector to serve the raw material needs of Xinjiang, and the garment and value added sector to absorb Chinese technology is another priority.Next is the growing domestic market, particularly in cement and household appliances, which receive detailed treatment in the plan. And lastly, through greater financial integration, the plan seeks to advance the internationalization of the RMB, as well as diversify the risks faced by Chinese enterprises entering Pakistan. In some areas the plan seeks to build on a market presence already established by Chinese enterprises, eg Haier in household appliances, ChinaMobile and Huawei in telecommunications and China Metallurgical Group Corporation (MCC) in mining and minerals.Gwadar receives passing mention as an economic prospect, mainly for its capacity to serve as a port of exit for minerals from Balochistan and Afghanistan, and as an entreport for wider trade in the greater Indian Ocean zone from South Africa to New Zealand. There is no mention of China’s external trade being routed through Gwadar. Judging from their conversations with the government, it appears that the Pakistanis are pushing the Chinese to begin work on the Gwadar International Airport, whereas the Chinese are pushing for early completion of the Eastbay Expressway.
But the entry of Chinese firms will not be limited to the CPEC framework alone, as the recent acquisition of the Pakistan Stock Exchange, and the impending acquisition of K Electric demonstrate. In fact, CPEC is only the opening of the door. What comes through once that door has been opened is difficult to forecast.

Maybe,the plan is a trial balloon floated by the Chinese. If implemented, it will surely be an economic and cultural colonization of the Pakistanis . Pakistan will become a virtual colony of the Chinese. Wonder, what is the re-action going to be of the Mullah brigade , to this erosion of the Islamic culture in the homeland of the Muslims of the sub-continent. Will the Chinese give assurance- to the Paki fauj - that the so-called territorial integrity will be guaranteed by them and the 1971 breakup of Pakistan will not be repeated again

[Falijee]

CROSS POSTED FROM PAKISTAN THREAD

How The Plan (To Colonize Pakistan) Was Made

How The Plan Was Made

The LTP was begun in November 2013 (see detailed timeline in previous tab), when the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) of the Government of China asked the China Development Bank (CDB) to compile a detailed roadmap to guide the engagement with Pakistan that had begun in May of that same year. For the next two years, till December 2015, the CDB worked with teams from the NDRC, as well the ministries of Transport, National Energy Administration and China Tourism Planning Institute to develop a detailed plan to be implemented over the next 15 years, till the year 2030, that will open the doors for Chinese enterprises – private and public – to enter every area of Pakistan’s economy.

Chinese expert teams made multiple visits to Pakistan and Xinjiang during this period, drawing up a detailed picture of the situation in every area, prioritizing those that will come first, and identifying “hidden dangers”, bottlenecks and risks that should be anticipated along the way.The report was first transmitted to the Government of Pakistan in June 2015, where it gathered dust for a few months. Under prodding from the Chinese government, a team from Pakistan met their counterparts in Beijing on November 12th, 2015 and gave their feedback. A “special bilateral meeting” was held on Dec 2nd, and the plan finalized on Dec 29th. It was then agreed by both sides that final signatures of the highest authorities, in Pakistan’s case the Prime Minister, would be obtained by March 31st. That deadline was missed, and the signatures are expected to be placed now that the PM is in Beijing.

In the meantime, a small formality asserted itself. For the plan to be finalized, the assent of the provincial governments was required. For that purpose, a second draft was prepared that could be shared with the provincial authorities. That draft is 31 pages long and significantly watered down with all details removed, containing only broad brushstroke descriptions of the “areas of cooperation” that both countries have identified.

The original plan drawn up by the CDB is 231 pages long, and is an astonishingly detailed roadmap of the pitfalls and opportunities that Chinese enterprises can expect as they venture into every area of the economy and society. It contains specifics of what is going to be built by the Chinese over the next decade and a half, and its detailed description of Pakistan’s economy and its attendant risks shows clearly that the Chinese are fully aware of what they are getting involved in. If, this is implemented in toto, Pakistan will remain independent in name only !

[Murugan]

some nanga sach as seen by cwapistanis in this conversation:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q_iRxrAgD_A

Feedback on cpeckharasach @ g m i l e dawt kam to the tv anchor

[JE Menon]

https://swarajyamag.com/world/cpec-wher ... ess-regime

On CPEC & Pakistan in Swarajya

Please share widely

[SSridhar]

Beijing's real plan revealed: Pakistan could soon turn into China's economic colony - Economic Times

[Falijee]

Leaked Documents Reveals Chinese Plans For Pakistan .

China Will Suppress Terrorism, Diversity, And Democracy In Pakistan: Leaked Document

A leaked document on China’s Silk Road investment plan reveals details on China’s approach to security issues for its investments in Pakistan, including potential Chinese law enforcement and increased Chinese-supplied surveillance equipment to be rolled out in Pakistan one city at a time. The document, a summary of which Pakistan’s Dawn media site published on May 15, details surveillance equipment and possible Chinese enforcement of the law in Pakistan to protect Chinese companies against terrorism. The document poses diversity and multi-party democracy as problems, which raises questions about the extent to which the international community should allow autocratic China’s use of $1 trillion in upcoming investment to push its diplomatic and security objectives in economically and politically vulnerable recipient countries. Many of these countries are independent and democratic, but may not be for long given China's document, ideology, and history of development finance. Beneath China's plying of silk and rice in Pakistan, is an iron will to extend its military, economic, and diplomatic influence in Asia. This leaked document confirms that thesis

The modern Silk Road, also known as Chinese President Xi Jinping’s One Belt, One Road (OBOR) plan, was announced in 2013. It includes $46 billion of planned investments in Pakistan. Known as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), it is under fire from India for running through the disputed territory of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. As part of the plan, China will also perturb India with its 40-year contract, including for military vessels, at the Port of Gwadar on the Arabian Sea just west of India. Both Pakistan and increasingly China, are acting as geopolitical and military adversaries to democratic India.

But those are not the biggest risks to the CPEC project, according to China, which proffered and then retracted an offer to change the name to mollify India. The biggest risk to China's CPEC investment, according to the Chinese government document, are security issues, diversity, and even multiparty democracy, as it were, in Pakistan. “There are various factors affecting Pakistani politics, such as competing parties, religion, tribes, terrorists, and Western intervention” the document states. “The security situation is the worst in recent years”. Is the Mullah Brigade aware of the extent to which the Islam pasand Paki Govt have sold themselves to the Islam-hating Chini Govt for the sake of "confronting India"

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies have committed trillions of dollars, and thousands of lives, in Afghanistan and Pakistan to fight terrorism and support democracy in those countries. So for China to associate “Western intervention” in the same breath with terrorism and “competing parties” is both bizarre and insulting. China has taken advantage of NATO-funded security in Afghanistan, while supporting the Taliban terrorists, for example, to enable their investment in highly-profitable copper mines that will destroy the ancient Buddhist temple complex at Mes Aynak. And now China calls Western intervention part of the problem? Western intervention helped take down the Soviet occupation, and singularly replaced the Taliban government in Kabul with a democracy. Western intervention removed Osama bin Laden from Pakistan. Now China calls Western intervention, democracy, and diversity the problem? The world needs to take a hard look at what China is doing in far-flung corners of the world. It isn’t good.

The world should also "take a hard look" as to how Pakistan is aiding and abetting anti-western and democratic forces and ostensibly being included as a "major non-Nato ally"

Pakistanis who care about their independence, security and democracy, erratic as it is, should seriously consider whether they want a large and powerful autocratic country like China so strongly determining their economic, political, and even security future. I wouldn’t. The rest of the world, especially India, which is in such a close and contentious embrace with Pakistan, and NATO countries along with land-bound Afghanistan, which depend on Pakistan for overland transport, should resist the China-Pakistan economic and political alliance. Elements in both countries support the Taliban terrorists. Neither country is a good influence on critical global values like democracy, diversity and human rights. International pressure should be brought to bear on both.

[chetak]

It is unfortunate that Pakistan's army is in such a state of denial and wretchedness that its leaders are even considering this. Observe the blindness of the "leadership". It is allying with a country which has just put restrictions on the name "Mohammed", the name of the prophet of the religion in whose name, and the main reason, why Pakistan was created. You can't blame China for the actions it takes in its interest, and this is indeed in its best interest - a large fairly resource rich colony which is a permanent thorn in the side of it's primary competitor, and will be a bigger one when Beijing is through with CPEC. But what of the land and people of Pakistan? If you read through the plan, such as it is, the whole thing is transparently obvious. It is in fact a worse surrender than the one Niazi signed in Dhaka. Here they are surrendering due to inability to govern, not inability to fight. A fitting end, I would think, to the first modern state created in the name of Islam, by one with the name of the prophet, that it surrenders to a godless state.

maybe the pakis are destined to have more prophets but they will come with chinese names onlee.

[Peregrine]

Roads and religion: How CPEC will pit Pakistan against itself

In this photograph taken on September 29, 2015, a Chinese national takes a photograph of his colleague at the Pak-China Khunjerab Pass, the world's highest paved border crossing at 4,600 metres above sea level. PHOTO: AFP
‘Exclusive: CPEC Master Plan Revealed’, read a headline this week in Pakistan’s daily newspaper, Dawn. Instantly, news outlets from across the world scrambled to analyse the text of the now-viral article and provided their own respective analyses of this said master plan. The two words themselves seem especially ominous, harkening to the devious plots hatched by cunning antagonists in the spy movies of old. The words, however, in many ways do justice to what was revealed.

The plan includes details of leasing large tracts of land to Chinese companies for ‘demonstration projects’ in agriculture with similar concessions in land granted for the construction of industrial zones, with their own set of tax breaks and logistical supports. Interesting also is the piloting of a ‘safe city’ program in Peshawar which uses a ‘full system of monitoring and surveillance’ to be replicated in all major cities of Pakistan. There are several other seemingly asymmetrical agreements in port control, trade and manufacturing. The article itself says it best,

“The plan envisages a deep and broad-based penetration of most sectors of Pakistan’s economy as well as its society by Chinese enterprises and culture. Its scope has no precedent in Pakistan’s history in terms of how far it opens up the domestic economy to participation by foreign enterprises.”

Then, perhaps, the scramble towards drawing first blood from the government for this unfathomable ‘surrender of sovereignty’ is justified. After all, ‘Another East India Company (EIC) is in the offing’. What is troubling is that several prominent theorists and politicians have made this analogy for impact rather than analysis; for if what they say is true, there is a re-imagining of Pakistan in the works that few could have predicted. It shall challenge Pakistan’s most fundamental core, the centrifuge around which its ideology, politics and culture revolve – religion.

One of the most interesting aspects of the plan is the construction of a fiber-optic system which will in part be used by the Chinese media to initiate in Pakistan ‘a dissemination of Chinese culture’. One has to look past typical arguments of cultural hegemony to understand what ‘Chinese culture’ means specifically for a Pakistani context.

This is the same country that has banned Indian entertainment, YouTube for posting blasphemous content, and has introduced an extensive Electronic Crimes Bill so vaguely phrased that any dissent on Islam in the previously safe space of social media may be seen as criminal. This principle is reinforced by non-state actions, such as the indiscriminate killing of religious minorities by terrorist factions and the alleged abduction of vocal opponents of authoritarianism by the intelligentsia. The Islamic Republic of Pakistan is no doubt vociferously Islamic, and its religious lobby will go to all extents to preserve the status quo.

It shall be interesting then to see how the media green lighted by the Chinese government – termed as ‘officially atheistic’ – will play to Pakistani audiences who are nothing if not sensitive of the unIslamic.

This doesn’t just apply to culture. The master plan also includes visa-free entry of Chinese nationals, and with them their own conceptions of the place of religion in society. This entry of Chinese citizens has the potential not just to shape demographics but also the cultural undertones of Pakistan’s current demographic. According to a Pew Study from 2008, more than 90% of Pakistanis consider religion to be very important. Meanwhile, a study by Gallup found China to be the least religious country in the world. It is difficult to imagine how people from both sides will mesh together with these diametrically opposed views on religion, in the religiously charged environment of Pakistan.

Another facet of the master plan is to ensure security for Chinese operations. This has somehow been related in the last line of the chapter on agriculture, and states that the government of China will,

“Strengthen the safety cooperation with key countries, regions and international organisations, jointly prevent and crack down on terrorist acts that endanger the safety of Chinese overseas enterprises and their staff.”

As ominous as that sounds on face value, it is even more problematic when one thinks of how difficult a position the Pakistan government will be put in, considering its nuanced (read: hypocritical) stance on ‘good’ and ‘bad’ terrorists. It is difficult to imagine how Pakistan’s government and intelligentsia can maneuver their way out of this quandary, especially considering that several infrastructure projects under the ambit of CPEC run through north and south-western territories where many of these terrorist factions have taken refuge. An example of this emerged just this week, when it came to light that three back-to-back terrorist attacks which claimed the lives of three dozen individuals in Pakistan’s south-west were targeted at CPEC operations in Balochistan.

This is a watershed moment for the current Pakistani administration. From one perspective, they have pushed Pakistan into a corner, where a bloody and violent conflict between religious ideology and economic liberalisation is inevitable. From another perspective, CPEC might finally arm the Pakistani government with the clout to reduce the influence of religious puritanicalism on Pakistan’s way of life.

The EIC brought with it misery and exploitation that no amount of reparations can forgive, but also technology and ideas that shape intellectual thought in the subcontinent to this day. Pakistan should be wary of China for several reasons, but it can use this economic partnership to bring about a cultural transformation that Pakistan has desperately needed since Ziaul Haq. Perhaps then, CPEC may become the ‘game-changer’ that Mr Nawaz Sharif envisioned, in more ways than one.

Cheers

[chetak]

^^^^^^^

The "visa free entry" for the hans into pakiland is not reciprocal. The pakis are not welcome in han land except through the torturous han visa application process.

I am equally sure that the hans have already negotiated small conditions like -- the paki police cannot arrest hans in pakiland and also maybe that the hans need not stop at paki red lights on the roads.

[chetak]

OBOR - CHINA GREAT GAME PLAN EXPOSED BY NAJAM SETHI !


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B8Hw48P4MBU

[hanumadu]

Is India the intended market for stuff china plans to make in Pakistan? Can we become a low cost manufacturing powerhouse before china starts dumping into India from pakistan?

[hanumadu]

What are the implications if India joins CPEC/OBOR? Will it come with an agreement of free trade between the participants? If we cannot impose tariffs/barriers/anti dumping duty on chinese goods, china will have a free run especially if UPA comes back to power.

[chetak]

What are the implications if India joins CPEC/OBOR? Will it come with an agreement of free trade between the participants? If we cannot impose tariffs/barriers/anti dumping duty on chinese goods, china will have a free run especially if UPA comes back to power.

the hans will try to extract concessions from India and on the very same terms as they have given to the pakis.

Where is the doubt??

They need to deploy their now low yielding money in India, where else is it safer??

there are plenty of Indian companies who will preferentially borrow han money, given the chance.

[Deans]

What are the implications if India joins CPEC/OBOR? Will it come with an agreement of free trade between the participants? If we cannot impose tariffs/barriers/anti dumping duty on chinese goods, china will have a free run especially if UPA comes back to power.

I've yet to hear anyone explain how India is supposed to join OBOR/CPEC ? None of these projects are on Indian controlled territory. If for e.g. China wants to build a railway across Kazakstan, what does it have to do with India ? None of the CPEC projects benefit India, nor is India invited to participate in them. In fact, CPEC specifically excludes any other participant (incl. an ally like Turkey, or a big investor like Japan), so that China has a monopoly for supplying surplus/ obsolete overpriced equipment at high interest.

Tariff barriers can be imposed whenever we like, its not dependent on CPEC, not would CPEC lower the price of anything India imports - though it will hit (for e.g.) Pakistan's textile exports. The problem with Chinese dumping can be rectified not with anti dumping, but with setting a base invoiced price, on which duty will be imposed.

[JE Menon]

^+101 AoA

[chola]

What are the implications if India joins CPEC/OBOR? Will it come with an agreement of free trade between the participants? If we cannot impose tariffs/barriers/anti dumping duty on chinese goods, china will have a free run especially if UPA comes back to power.

I've yet to hear anyone explain how India is supposed to join OBOR/CPEC ? None of these projects are on Indian controlled territory. If for e.g. China wants to build a railway across Kazakstan, what does it have to do with India ? None of the CPEC projects benefit India, nor is India invited to participate in them. in fact CPEC specifically excludes any other participant (incl. an ally like Turkey or a big investor like Japan) so that China has a monopoly for supplying surplus/ obsolete overpriced equipment at high interest.

Tariff barriers can be imposed whenever we like, its not dependent on CPEC, not would CPEC lower the price of anything India imports - though it will hit (for e.g.) Pakistan's textile exports. The problem with Chinese dumping can be rectified not with anti dumping, but with setting a base invoiced price, on which duty will be imposed.

Thanks Deans, for pointing out the obvious to those dhoti shaking.

OBOR has nothing to do with us unless we chose to get in on the game by selling the chini stuff to build all this infractructure.

This is what the US, EU and Japan/East Asia are doing.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/western-fi ... 1494790205

We refuse to dignify the chinis with even a representative so good for us, right?

But you know what? This is the kind of game only the developed world can play anyways.

OBOR can only happen because the chinis have excess industrial capacity and excess financial capital. Those two are things that a turdworld nation should never have.

In fact, by definition, turdworld means having a lack of infrastructure, a lack of industry and, most of all, a lack of finances to pay for the first two lacks.

We have all three lacks. Chini have surplus of all three. That is why they have OBOR.

Chinis have a printing press like Khan's so that's all there's to it.

[Falijee]

Paki Paper Questions Govt Narrative On CPEC

What’s the plan, Pakistan?

Pakistan’s Minister for Planning, Development and Reform says that the news report claiming to have ‘revealed’ the CPEC ‘master plan’ was half-cooked and an attempt to defame the initiative. He’s right on both counts. The report presented a seminal working document prepared by the Chinese side as the actual Long-Term Plan and it was laced with negative commentary. So, will the minister be kind enough to tell us what our response to the Chinese proposals entailed and what was finally decided in Beijing over the last weekend? Will he tell us what the real deal is? The plan was negotiated, approved and signed without taking into confidence the National Assembly as well as the awam of Pakiland

Actually, more worrisome than this recent attempt to drag CPEC into dirt is the non-transparent way in which the minister and his government have gone about the business of managing CPEC, whether it is the long-term planning or the implementation of projects initiated under it. The minister says that the news report was based on a document that had become redundant and it sought to distort the ‘final draft’ discussed on the side-lines of the OBOR summit in Beijing. So, will he be kind enough to share the ‘final draft’ with the nation? That would nip all the distortions and speculations in the bud.

After all, don’t these distortions and speculations signify a failure of his ministry? Why is there such a dearth of information on what is being planned under the umbrella of CPEC? Why should a half-cooked news report be our only source of information about how this national game-changer will develop? Shouldn’t the Ministry of Planning be more forthcoming with information about what it is doing in this regard and what it is proposing?In fact, shouldn’t it engage the citizens of Pakistan, the most important stake-holders of the initiative, in defining the future contours of our cooperation with China? That’s clearly too much to ask of a ministry that didn’t even bother to share with us what our Chinese partners had proposed for the long-term. That document had to be ‘revealed’ to us through a misleading news report, which was as exclusive as it was half-cooked.

We must appreciate the difference between our promising engagement with China and the slavery of the empire. In the case of China, we have a say in which way we’d like our cooperation to go. The possibilities are endless and how we decide to proceed depends as much on us as it depends on China. We could turn it into a cooperative partnership or foster another relationship of dependence. At the end of the day, it depends on our leadership and its vision.Instead of blaming our Chinese partners for proposing a plan that fits in with their vision of national development, perhaps we need to focus more on the response of our government and whether it has made any effort to protect and promote our national interest while formulating the ‘final draft’ for the Long Term Plan of CPEC. Some of the concerns expressed about the proposals are valid. But who is supposed to address them and ensure that our cooperation with China is truly a win-win scenario? It is going to be a win-win scenario for the "taller than mountain fliend ", and a zero plus zero scenario for the Islamic Republic . The Mullahs are silent on this for the time being, now wait for the "Islam in danger" slogan , coming soon to a masjid near you

[anupmisra]

Paki Paper Questions Govt Narrative On CPEC

What’s the plan, Pakistan?

The right question for the paki awaam to ask their leaders is "What is Plan B?"

Plan A (or The PLAN) is simple and it is detailed in the recently exposed 231-page CDB strategy document- we, the pakis must mortgage everything we own or control to the chinis with the hope that the chini iron birathers will, hopefully, one day, instantlaw, bail us out of this morass and propel us to the top 25 economies of the world by 2025.

After all, what can go wrong with The PLAN?

[hanumadu]

I've yet to hear anyone explain how India is supposed to join OBOR/CPEC ? None of these projects are on Indian controlled territory. If for e.g. China wants to build a railway across Kazakstan, what does it have to do with India ? None of the CPEC projects benefit India, nor is India invited to participate in them. in fact CPEC specifically excludes any other participant (incl. an ally like Turkey or a big investor like Japan) so that China has a monopoly for supplying surplus/ obsolete overpriced equipment at high interest.

Tariff barriers can be imposed whenever we like, its not dependent on CPEC, not would CPEC lower the price of anything India imports - though it will hit (for e.g.) Pakistan's textile exports. The problem with Chinese dumping can be rectified not with anti dumping, but with setting a base invoiced price, on which duty will be imposed.

Thanks Deans, for pointing out the obvious to those dhoti shaking.

OBOR has nothing to do with us unless we chose to get in on the game by selling the chini stuff to build all this infractructure.

I talked only about CPEC and not OBOR. Congress and left are already making noises that Indian should have attended and perhaps take part in OBOR/CPEC. So, how can you be confident that India will not chose to join CPEC if UPA comes back to power. India has moved way left of center after 2004. Anything is possible.

[DavidD]

What are the implications if India joins CPEC/OBOR? Will it come with an agreement of free trade between the participants? If we cannot impose tariffs/barriers/anti dumping duty on chinese goods, china will have a free run especially if UPA comes back to power.

I've yet to hear anyone explain how India is supposed to join OBOR/CPEC ? None of these projects are on Indian controlled territory. If for e.g. China wants to build a railway across Kazakstan, what does it have to do with India ? None of the CPEC projects benefit India, nor is India invited to participate in them. In fact, CPEC specifically excludes any other participant (incl. an ally like Turkey, or a big investor like Japan), so that China has a monopoly for supplying surplus/ obsolete overpriced equipment at high interest.

Tariff barriers can be imposed whenever we like, its not dependent on CPEC, not would CPEC lower the price of anything India imports - though it will hit (for e.g.) Pakistan's textile exports. The problem with Chinese dumping can be rectified not with anti dumping, but with setting a base invoiced price, on which duty will be imposed.

You can join by helping out with improving connectivity, which it seems like you're already doing by building roads to Myanmar, Thailand, and whatnot. Once the infrastructure is built, anyone can take advantage of them. Indian goods can make their way to e.g. Laos via Chinese funded railways, and Chinese goods can make their way to e.g. Myanmar through Indian built roads. It'll be good for everyone connected by the new infrastructure.

[chetak]

the paki pigs are making movies with han heroes!!

no paki movies with paki mard bonking han females?? or is it too early in the project?? or reciprocal arrangement is not allowed by the hans??

A young Chinese Muslim named Adam crosses one of the world’s highest borders into Gilgit-Baltistan, a mountainous region that forms the sole land bridge between China and Pakistan. He was just a baby when his father perished, along with hundreds of other Chinese construction workers, while carving the strategic Karakorum Highway into treacherous mountain slopes in the 1960s and 70s.

Adam’s father paid the ultimate price to lay the foundations for the present-day China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a US$55 billion infrastructure programme to link the overland and maritime routes of President Xi Jinping’s ( 習近平 ) “Belt and Road Initiative” – Beijing’s plan to recreate the ancient Silk Road trade route. His sacrifice helped to extend China’s connectivity to the markets of the Middle East, Africa and Europe, and break its dependence on sea lanes in the contested waters off its Pacific coastline.

How rekindled Sino-Indian tensions are reshaping Asian geopolitics

But that means little to Adam, who grew up without ever having known his father. Seeking emotional closure, he sets out on a quest for answers in the foreign land that claimed his father’s life, equipped only with a mobile translation app to overcome his inability to speak English and Urdu.

His chances are slim, at best, but fate introduces Adam to a group of Pakistani tourists in the Hunza Valley, the picturesque first stepping stone along the corridor, and a platonic romance blossoms between Adam and Resham, a pretty doctor from Karachi.

A screenshot from Pakistani film Chalay Thay Saath (They Walked Together). Photo: YouTube
A screenshot from Pakistani film Chalay Thay Saath (They Walked Together). Photo: YouTube
Unfortunately for Adam, wistful glances and a temperamental translation app are not enough to develop a sustainable relationship – but that hasn’t stopped such scenes from being a hit with the Pakistani audiences who have watched them unfold on cinema screens as a subplot of the feature film Chalay Thay Saath (They Walked Together), released on April 21.

“The [Pakistani] audience is now mature enough to accept a Chinese hero – after all, we are all fans of Jackie Chan,” said Pakistani critic Omair Alavi. Alavi pointed out a similar storyline featured in a television play aired by Pakistan’s state broadcaster after the 1978 completion of the Karakorum Highway. The only difference is that Adam, portrayed by Chinese Canadian actor Kent S. Leung, is a Muslim.

https://youtu.be/QJyXuldtLOQ

[Peregrine]

China evokes Panchsheel to address India's concerns over CPEC

BEIJING: Skirting questions whether it is willing to rename the $50 billion CPEC traversing through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, China on Thursday said it believes in the Panchsheel principles of "mutual respect for each other's territorial integrity and sovereignty".

"We have expressed our position on the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)," Foreign ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying told media here when asked whether China plans to rename the corridor as proposed by its envoy to New Delhi.

She was also asked questions about a top BJP leader's article in a newspaper, describing CPEC as India's Achilles' heel.

"I want to reiterate that we would like to follow the five principles (Panchsheel) of coexistence in developing friendly relations with other countries including our efforts in promoting regional," she said.

The first principle of Panchsheel enunciated by India and China in 1954 speaks of "mutual respect for each other's territorial integrity and sovereignty". China showed disdain for India during 1962 in Aksai Chin, supported Clapistan in 1965 and 1971 (did not provide physical support!) and now the problems in Arunachal Pradesh and now possible problems with the Brahmaputra waters.

"I am sure you also noticed that during the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation, President Xi Jinping also mentioned that we follow the principle of peaceful coexistence to promote the friendly cooperation along the Belt and Road. So I think in this way the concerns from the Indian side should be addressed," she said.

"As per the concern over the Kashmir region as we said before, it is an issue between India and Pakistan. B and R will not change China's position on the Kashmir issue. B and R is open and inclusive one," Hua said.

Chinese ambassador to India Luo Zhaohui had offered to rename the CPEC during an address at a think-tank in New Delhi, insisting that it was an economic cooperation and connectivity enhancement project devoid of "sovereignty issues".

However, China later removed the remarks of its envoy from the transcript of his speech posted on the embassy website, apparently after Pakistan sought a clarification on it.

Chinese official in Beijing, however, suggested that it was perhaps Luo's personal initiative to address India's concerns.

"Adding insult to injury for India is the very name of the project, CPEC, although the region through which it passes does not belong either to Pakistan or to China," he said.

India skipped the Belt and Road Forum (BRF) held here on May 14-15 due to its sovereignty concerns over the CPEC which passes through PoK.

My thoughts : China wants India to join CPEC - OBOR so that it can flood India with its Manufacturing in Xinjiang. This will then entail Clapistan joining the India - Myanmar - Bangladesh - China Road and flooding India with Clapistani Terrorists ostensibly sending them as "Additional Drivers and Mechanics" on Clapistani Trucks. Thus no CPEC & no OBOR. In addition no Clapistan in the India - Myanmar - China Road Link. End Of!

Cheers

[Peregrine]

Understanding CPEC - Capital suggestion

In order to understand CPEC, we must first understand China. China’s labour force stands at around 800 million and the number one national issue in China is employment. China is all about ‘state capitalism’ and the Communist Party of China (CPC). The number one issue for the CPC is employment because unemployment means social instability and the last thing the CPC wants is another Tiananmen Square (in 1989, student-led protesters demonstrated in Beijing and Premier Li Peng had to impose martial law to suppress the movement).

CPEC was drawn up by the China Development Bank (CDB) and the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) of China. Both the CDB and the NDRC have a mandate to safeguard Chinese interests, not Pakistan’s. To be certain, China now has excess steel, coal, cement, aluminium and flat glass capacities. Of all the steel produced in the world, roughly 50 percent is produced in China. China’s metal smelting and rolling industry employs 3.63 million workers. China’s annual steel production stands at 800 million metric tonnes while its domestic demand has plummeted to 400 million metric tonnes.

The CPC now has two choices: lay-off a million steel workers or try to export $100 billion worth of excess steel every year. Remember, unemployment means social instability and the last thing the CPC wants is another Tiananmen Square. Yes, China produces 60 percent of the global cement output. Domestic demand has gone down sharply and the CPC would have to cut roughly 390 million tonnes of cement capacity. And that would mean unemployed cement workers.

In 2014, China’s foreign exchange reserves peaked at over $4 trillion. As of May 2017, China’s foreign exchange reserves have dropped to a little over $3 trillion. For the record, the ‘Chinese government has the largest foreign exchange reserves in the world’ and China is the ‘largest official holder of US assets in the world’. Of the $3 trillion in reserves, around $2 trillion or 66 percent consist of US dollar-denominated assets, mostly US Treasury securities and some US corporate bonds. Of the $3 trillion in reserves only $74 billion or a mere 2.5 percent are held in the form of gold.

For the record, China’s $2 trillion investment in US Treasury securities earns anywhere from 1.13 percent on a one-year treasury to a high of 2.98 percent on 30-year treasury securities. Just compare those earnings to what China will be earning by investing in the Sahiwal Coal Power Project: the guaranteed rate of interest on the debt component is LIBOR plus 4.5 percent.

In effect, the Chinese loan to the Sahiwal Coal Power Project bears an interest rate of 6.21 percent (as the current one-year LIBOR is at 1.71 percent). Additionally and amazingly, the China Export and Credit Insurance Corporation will charge an insurance premium of 7 percent (even though the GoP has guaranteed to purchase electricity that will be generated). Imagine: the Chinese will be earning 13 percent in the first year as opposed to 1.13 percent on US Treasury securities.

On top of that, the return on equity in the Sahiwal Coal Power Project “shall be 27.2 percent” (according to Nepra) and the return on equity in the 1,320MW Thar Coal Power by the Shanghai Electric Power shall be 34.49 percent (according to Nepra). For the record, these dollar-denominated, government of Pakistan- guaranteed rates must be among the highest in the world and an entrepreneur’s dream come true.

A recently revealed 231-page document lists five risks: Pakistan’s “competing political parties (read: multiparty democracy), religion, tribes, terrorists and Western intervention”. Then there are train-loads of ‘surveillance equipment’ and Chinese law-enforcement personnel to ‘protect Chinese companies’.

Not to forget that China and Pakistan are at number 76 and 116 out of 176 countries on the Corruption Perception Index respectively. Unfortunately, corruption at both ends is translating into inflated capital costs of CPEC projects.

Cheers

[anupmisra]

Understanding CPEC - Capital suggestion

the return on equity in the Sahiwal Coal Power Project “shall be 27.2 percent”

Most pakis don't get this metric. They think it is a simple ROE but the chinis are looking for a 27.2% leveraged return on their equity, or IRR, as guaranteed by the paki government. Chinis are, of course, right. That's why the pakis are not disclosing the exact terms of the JV agreements.

[r_subra]

If Cheens think that they can collect from Pakistan, they are sorely mistaken! Their plan is to get free infrastructure built by the Chinese and rope them in as a stakeholder in PoK and allow access to Gwadar! They will play pakistan-china axis card to West and get money from IMF & USA notwithstanding the KL bill... They are already supporting the US-Saudi axis to take on Iran. Very careful balancing act enabled by their RANDI mindset and superb geography. Asad Durrani, their ex Strategic Forces Commander, acknowledged this strategy in Mehdi Hassan interview and stated that "if you don't ride multiple horses, you don't belong in this business"

What are India's options?
a) Push back hard on PA in NWFP & Balochistan from Afghanistan
b) Be proactive on PoK. We could take pakistan to ICJ regarding PoK with a HR violation complaint of PoK citizens not being able to participate in the Indian democratic processes since whole of Kashmir (incl. Aksai Chin) belongs to India and portray CPEC as an effort to change PoK demographics with chinese settlers under the guise of economic development! If ICJ passes an interim stay on CPEC construction, Indian Army could enforce it (unlike philliphines which did not have the military muscle).

Bottomline folks, India's problems are mainly Pakistan-China nexus.. We have to break out of this straightjacket within the next 5 years

[Deans]

If Cheens think that they can collect from Pakistan, they are sorely mistaken! Their plan is to get free infrastructure built by the Chinese and rope them in as a stakeholder in PoK and allow access to Gwadar! They will play pakistan-china axis card to West and get money from IMF & USA notwithstanding the KL bill...

The Cheens will probably get the Pak generals (the Pak JV partners in CPEC projects are invariably fronts for Pak army generals) to collect. Since when have their afsars bothered about the impact of anything they do, on the Pak economy ?
The common theme with all OBOR projects is that no prudent banker will lend to these projects. China pays off one strongman/ dictator / military junta to approve the project. There is usually also inadequate expertise within the country to evaluate the real impact of the project.

[ShyamSP]

If Cheens think that they can collect from Pakistan, they are sorely mistaken! Their plan is to get free infrastructure built by the Chinese and rope them in as a stakeholder in PoK and allow access to Gwadar! They will play pakistan-china axis card to West and get money from IMF & USA notwithstanding the KL bill... They are already supporting the US-Saudi axis to take on Iran. Very careful balancing act enabled by their RANDI mindset and superb geography. Asad Durrani, their ex Strategic Forces Commander, acknowledged this strategy in Mehdi Hassan interview and stated that "if you don't ride multiple horses, you don't belong in this business"

What are India's options?
a) Push back hard on PA in NWFP & Balochistan from Afghanistan
b) Be proactive on PoK. We could take pakistan to ICJ regarding PoK with a HR violation complaint of PoK citizens not being able to participate in the Indian democratic processes since whole of Kashmir (incl. Aksai Chin) belongs to India and portray CPEC as an effort to change PoK demographics with chinese settlers under the guise of economic development! If ICJ passes an interim stay on CPEC construction, Indian Army could enforce it (unlike philliphines which did not have the military muscle).

Bottomline folks, India's problems are mainly Pakistan-China nexus.. We have to break out of this straightjacket within the next 5 years

Keep bombing in Northern Areas on lorries and trains that cross border, terrorists and training camps.

[SSridhar]

It will be quite interesting to see whether the greedy Chinese could match the cunning Pakis after a decade or so. Not that the Chinese are naive, but the Pakistanis are lethally cunning. IOW, would it be strategic planning or tactical brilliance. From 1963, the Pakistan-China relationship has been steadfast, something that Pakistan had had with no other country. Obviously, the binding thread is the common objective of destruction of India. We have to see what would win in the end, common enmity, greediness or cunning.

[TKiran]

^^^SS sir, I can give an analogy for this situation, there is a large MNC in US, which was charmed by a very inefficient company in India by giving expensive gifts and services to the MNC officials who ultimately agreed to give the project to inefficient company, the company started charging the customer from the day one without giving any output, whenever the problem is escalated, the company never took any responsibility, but asked for more billing, but as the CEO is wined and dined by these minnows even in US, CEO started making sure that all the resources, infrastructure etc is provided and training given to the staff etc, still no output.

It's still going on like this only even after a decade.

From this analogy, I can confidently say that there are only winners in this game.

The pakis will be happy as the junta gets its cut without taking any responsibility, the cheenis are happy as even if there's no benefit, they can claim that they have violated India's soverginity, and a future strategic advantage etc etc, it will go on forever,

Yes the game could be different if India started fingering pakis, but in their calculation it's not gonna happen. They are correct in their calculation, I have to admit grudgingly.

[yensoy]

It will be quite interesting to see whether the greedy Chinese could match the cunning Pakis after a decade or so. Not that the Chinese are naive, but the Pakistanis are lethally cunning.

One can be greedy or lethally cunning when one can throw one's population under the bus. That's what makes these regimes so dangerous - for China nobody from within China can ask why these monies are chasing after illusory dreams, for Pakistan nobody dare challenge CPEC. Thus empowered, we will have to see which of these parties blinks first. My guess is the Pakis, because China has deeper pockets and relatively "patriotic" policies/individuals where Pakis are... well, Pakis.

[TKiran]

I know it's a serious forum, but I really pity dishaji, his dreams are shattered and reversed. Now a 100 million Hans are going to occupy the most picturesque parts of Pakistan,

[JE Menon]

If Pakistan wants to know what CPEC will look like for them, take a dekko at Tibet. There's some first class infrastructure. But Mohammed is going to be Chinese. And the Ansar are going to be Muslims with Chinese characteristics.

Of course, the land is gone too. But you Pakis don't care about that anyway, as you are all from the Arabian Peninsula and Turkic lands.

[SRoy]

If CPEC succeeds, PLA would enter the scene to protect their investment. Sooner or later PLA divisions would start pouring in Paki Punjab, Norther Areas and Sindh. PLAN would berth in Gwadar.
Looks like a plan to me.

[A_Gupta]

http://sonorannews.com/new/2017/05/23/p ... ghanistan/
Why Pakistan wants the US to lose in Afghanistan

An extension of CPEC to Afghanistan would benefit both China and Pakistan, whose economic goals include exploiting the estimated $3 trillion in untapped Afghan mineral resources. The withdrawal of the U.S. and NATO from Afghanistan would allow China to reap rewards from the reconstruction of the war-torn country, possibly as a quid pro quo for mining rights.

Islamic militancy has long been one element of Pakistan’s foreign policy. As early as the 1950s, it began inserting Islamists associated with the Pakistan-based Jamaat-e-Islami into Afghanistan.

In 1974, then Prime Minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto set up a cell within Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate (ISI) to begin managing dissident Islamists in Afghanistan. Pakistani President Zia ul-Haq (1977-1988) once told one of his generals: “Afghanistan must be made to boil at the right temperature.”

Pakistan’s present support for the Taliban is just a recent iteration of a long-held policy to influence or destabilize Afghanistan. The use of instability may have served its interests in the past, but Pakistan is holding the Islamist tiger by the tail.

It is not clear that a Taliban-controlled Afghanistan would cooperate in fulfilling Pakistan’s or China’s international plans or, more broadly, hinder them simply by providing a Petri dish for instability. During the period in the 1990s when the Taliban ruled Afghanistan, they three times thwarted one of Pakistan’s key foreign policy objectives, to recognize the Durand Line as the permanent border between the countries.

The success of the CPEC project depends on the stability of Balochistan, Pakistan’s largest province, where the CPEC ports of Gwadar and Karachi are located.

Pakistan may someday regret using the Taliban as an instrument of its foreign policy. Stability is a prerequisite for successful economic develop and it is a more difficult condition to create than instability.

Those who live by insurgency can also die by insurgency. Pakistan would do well to remember that.

[yensoy]

If CPEC succeeds, PLA would enter the scene to protect their investment. Sooner or later PLA divisions would start pouring in Paki Punjab, Norther Areas and Sindh. PLAN would berth in Gwadar.
Looks like a plan to me.

The Hans will wilt like pansies in the Baloch/Sindh summer heat. They don't know what they are getting into. Best of luck to Xi - once he is gone I am sure the whole OBOR nonsense will be rolled back rather quickly.