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Analyzing CPEC

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby venug » 14 Apr 2017 18:41


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Analyzing CPEC

Postby Peregrine » 15 Apr 2017 04:48

X Posted on STFUP Thread

CPEC promises the moon but Gwadar just wants water
It is hard to imagine going without clean drinking water for 15 to 20 days consecutively, but for the citizens of Gwadar, it is a fact of life. Residents of this coastal city get clean drinking water for just one hour, every two to three weeks. For poor people this means rationing potable water to make it last from one distribution to the next, while for others, those who can afford it, it means forking out six to ten thousand rupees for a water tanker.
“If you come to Gwadar, bring clean drinking water. These days it’s the most valuable gift you can give,” a friend from Gwadar messaged recently. He was joking, of course, but in truth the problem of access to potable water is no joke. And the citizens of Gwadar have been in this situation for decades.
It is easy to sit in a mansion in Islamabad, making empty promises. It is even easier to dismiss expressions of genuine concern and criticism as an international conspiracy. The people of Gwadar are in urgent need of water. It is their constitutional right and the government is failing to provide it. Transforming Gwadar into a Pakistani Dubai, New York, or Shanghai can wait. Drinking water for the people of Gwadar cannot.
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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby disha » 15 Apr 2017 06:06

^^ One important line missed from the above report. It seems, Iran is supplying electricity to Gwadar!

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby tandav » 15 Apr 2017 13:46

Its very interesting model for China to buy strategic Land for Cheap by claiming to make infrastructure, this is a bloodless coup that has my greatest admiration. While others have fought for this land the Chinese have simply bought it FOR FREE.

Allow me to explain how Gwadar/Balochistan and Gilgit-Baltistan in Kashmir of will become part of China. It appears to me that Chinese the cost of acquisition is zero since all the money and equipment and labor are routed through China. Once the infra is made and payment default invariably occurs then the land is forcibly bought/handed over to China to REPAY the loan.

Modus operandi:
Step 1 Identify strategically important locations
Step 2 propose ridiculous infrastructure projects that are economically unviable at those locations.
Step 3 Give loan and make infrastructure ensure only Chinese companies, labor and equipment to rotate the money. Make sure there is no competitive bidding and cost indicated is high. Overstate costs and thereby loan amount.
Step 4 Make Chinatowns around this infrastructure, populate with Hans garrison with PLA. Chinese law in Chinatown.
Step 5 Source only the basics from local population so that no value or wealth is created by the locals so they could potentially repay the "LOAN"
Step 6 Take over the land and infrastructure and convert to a military base.

In CPEC for ecample do its dirty work China commissions TSPA into action to apply its talent for genocide/forced removal of the original inhabitants of these areas. Modus operandi is very similar to Sri Lankan authorities removing locals in Hambantota.

The icing on the cake is that the infrastructure built is ready for use by the Chinese themselves. A truly Sun Zhu move that is unparalleled. Hats off to the mandarins of Qin.

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby LokeshC » 15 Apr 2017 14:13

^^^^+1001 on the settlement part.

Long time ago I had this thought about the trajectory of India and China. We will be the biggest economies of the world with a very large population. What that means is once the per capita income matches a smaller economy we can just buy the place up for our people to settle.

On CPEC I dont think its going to be easy though, given how far away all these areas are from mainland China. But I guess it's no big deal.

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby chetak » 15 Apr 2017 17:32

CPEC, A baloch view

JADHAV VICTIM OF PAK-CHINA BALOCH ROMANCE


JADHAV VICTIM OF PAK-CHINA BALOCH ROMANCE
Saturday, 15 April 2017 | Jumma Marri | in Oped


It is a well-known fact that Pakistan always looked for blame games and excuses to carry on with her illegal occupation of Balochistan and genocidal military operation against the Baloch people.

The aim is to defeat the Baloch fight for freedom and force them to surrender to the Punjabi elite who could then loot Baloch resources without any resistance.

China, Pakistan’s close friend, joined the Punjabi looting class closely in 2001 in its efforts to kill and plunder Baloch resources unabashedly. It has now increased the stakes by announcing the so-called China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) that has raised Pakistan’s strategical importance many times in the region and beyond.

There are no doubts about the importance of CPEC for China and Pakistan (read Punjab). China has even declared it as the flagship project under the “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR) initiative. However, CPEC is an existential threat to not only the Baloch people but also to other ethnic minorities who are gradually coming to terms with the adverse impact of it on their lives. The Baloch people are particularly incensed about the growing military action that has followed the announcement of the project.

This has touched their nerves and made them more determined to fight for their inalienable rights of Independence which was snatched away from them through illegal annexation of their country by Pakistan in 1948.

CPEC is a direct threat to the USA too even if some of the American analysts have deluded themselves into believing that it would bring prosperity and stability to the terror-manufacturing country.

They ignore the debilitating impact of China-Pakistan strategic nexus on the regional conflict dynamics in general and the human rights situation in Balochistan in particular.

Pakistan is keeping its doors open for China to enhance its strategic existence in the Arabian Sea through its presence in Gwadar and boost its economy by bringing prosperity to western Chinese region of Xinjiang. At a time when China is facing economic downturn, investing its vast idle reserves in a corridor like this makes eminent sense, especially when it has a partner like Pakistan, and it is willing to trust Pakistani military with its ability as well as commitment to provide security for its investments.

This should particularly worry realists in America, when China is strategically competing with and displacing the US from region after region in the developing regions of Asia, Africa and Latin America.

It has inflated aspirations of replacing the US as the most powerful country in the world. It is full of scorn for the values and norms that the US upholds as fundamental to human development. There is a conscious effort by China to provide the developing world with an alternative vision of economic growth founded on values which are inherently anti-democratic and anti-human rights.

Ideologically, the Punjabi elite of Pakistan is its close cousin even if it maintains a façade of democracy. In such a setting, the US should stop alignment of such regressive forces rather than seeking to cohabit the strategic space of Southern Asia with both of them.

CPEC is also a direct threat to the oil rich West Asian countries. If China sets up its military bases right at the neck of Strait of Hormuz in Persian Gulf in this way, it will definitely flex its muscle in the region sooner than expected and browbeat the region into submission.

Having an alternative route for Chinese imports and exports away from South China Sea where the waters are increasingly getting hot due to Chinese ambitions to control entire south sea is also an attractive proposition for China. It will save on its expenses on security and trade-transit through CPEC.

CPEC is being projected as a matter of life and death by the ruling elite of Pakistan. Perceived Indian opposition to it is acting as an unexpected incentive for both China and Pakistan to overinvest on it for its successful implementation. They know for sure that the main hurdle on their way is the Baloch movement for freedom. They want to delegitimise the movement by inventing a link with India.

It is no secret that since 2000, the Pakistan Army is running its brutal military operations against the innocent Baloch people, who have been waging their fifth-generation struggle against the Pakistani policies.

Starting with military dictator Musharraf, Pakistani rulers have openly blamed everybody around the world from CIA, RAW, Mossad, Russian FSB, Afghans, Arabs and Iranian intelligence agencies for the ongoing Baloch resistance movement.

The Kulbhushan Jadhav episode only proves this point further. The Baloch people have known Pakistani designs since 2003 when Pakistani authorities offered them US $ 35,000 for every Indian they would be able to kidnap from Afghanistan and US$ 20,000 every Indian kidnapped from Iran. They have offered millions to Afghan Taliban for capturing Indians working in Afghanistan.

The story emerging from the ground suggests that Kulbhushan Jadhav was kidnapped from western Balochistan near Chabahar port in Iran by three Afghans who later sold him to some Baloch who were working for the ISI.

Jadhav was there on a business trip to inspect some possibilities to export Indian garments to Turkmenistan and other central Asian states.

He was blind-flooded and brought inside Pakistani occupied Balochistan and sold for US$ 35,000 that was trophy for ISI. He was then shown as a RAW agent captured in Balochistan, who was there to train and help Baloch and create instability in Pakistan.

It was all just a grand make-believe show to brainwash Pakistani public and international community to hide their crimes in Balochistan.

Another fact that has gone unnoticed is that the Chinese have resisted the temptation to invest heavily in Balochistan so far. The proposed Gadani power plants have been kept in abeyance. The move to build infrastructure around Gwadar has been pushed by Pakistan to sustain Chinese interests.

The only good this is that Pakistani ploy to project Baloch resistance as merely a function of mischief caused by Indian RAW has not convinced the Chinese about the nature of Baloch movement, which is likely to intensify further.

If the sentence against Kulbushan is carried out, it will be a travesty of justice. He has not been given due assistance under international law to plead his case. The Pakistani version of the story has been upheld by the military court and death sentence has been pronounced without even granting Indian High Commission access to its citizen alleged to be a spy.

As per international norms, this is the very minimum requirement for a fair trial. All this shows how desperate Pakistanis are to undermine Baloch struggle at one level and sell their antipathy towards India as legitimate point to the international community on the other.

Ironically, the Baloch people, with their secular outlook and reflexive empathy for India, have not received due attention and help from India in their struggle for their existence.

With India being a regional heavyweight with its record of upholding human rights in the case of Bangladesh, the Baloch have huge expectations from New Delhi, but it has gone unmet over the years. Despite steady attempt by various Baloch leaders in exile to reach out to Indian diplomats abroad in quest for moral and material help, there is no manifest desire to imperil India’s relationship with Pakistan by siding with Balochistan.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has raised Baloch expectations but as the Indian coyness about the Kulbhushan case shows, India is still not prepared to openly advocate the Baloch cause and raise the case of gross human rights violations at the international level.

Alas! The ground reality is so very different from what the Pakistanis portray it to be!

(The writer is a physician by profession and a Baloch rights activist based in Moscow)

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby tandav » 15 Apr 2017 18:29

An interesting story below.

Part 1

Abdul marries Aasiya and gets a beautiful house as dowry in a good neighborhood. Abdul brought up in a chauvinistic family is not very kind to Aasiya though he is able bring in some small amount of essentials by begging and stealing. Occasionally while stealing he gets caught by Avinash and thrashed. One day Abdul molests Aasiya's sister but she is rescued by Abdul's neighbor Avinash who beats up Abdul.

Upset by this Abdul is plotting revenge with his friend Wang. One day while Avinash was on vacation, Abdul's friend Wang tells him that if he converted an adjoining garden belonging to Avinash into an extra bedroom it would get Abdul more rent. What's more Wang told Abdul that he would do the work for free while, Abdul only needed to pay in installments. Win! Win! said Wang. Wang does the work and Abdul was overjoyed.

Alas rent from the bedroom was not that great since Avinash made a ruckus preventing any sane person from occupying his property. Wang told Abdul not to worry and he himself would move in to the bedroom as a favor to Abdul. Of course as a poor man himself he could not possibly pay the high rent required to repay loan but at least 2-3% can be paid off per year.

A few months went by and Abdul could not pay off Wang. But the good friend Wang helpfully told Abdul do not worry he would hire Aasiya to cook for him and pay a little extra. Abdul is overjoyed at the suggestion and agrees though the money still won't cover the loan.

Soon Wang brings in some cheap TVs, VCR and other white goods to his bedroom, Aasiya, Wang and Abdul live together for a while as Abdul tries to pay off his Loan to Wang. Wang tells Abdul now the house full of valuables and the neighborhood ruffian Avinash was making eyes on the house of Abdul. Wang and Abdul decide that the richer Wang would pay Abdul to guard the house and valuables at night for a small amount of money which will help pay 2-3% of loan per year. Abdul heart swells with joy at Wang's generosity. Wang is however swelling in other places.

While Abdul faithfully guarding the house, Wang then starts flirting and seducing Aasiya while Abdul guards the house outside. Wang tells Aasiya to keep their rendezvous secret or he would be forced to call in his loan to Abdul and leave Aasiya with no house. Aasiya does not agree but is scared of both Abdul and Wang and complies.

Time goes by and while Abdul is guarding the house and Wang in frustration tells Abdul that Aasiya is falling for Avinash and he should divorce her. In a fit of rage Abdul triple talaqs (TT) Aasiya, she is upset but does not complain and continues to live in house given to her by her family. Every once in a while Abdul wants Aasiya back and asks Wang to help. Wang forces Nikah Hallalah (NH) on a reluctant/unhappy Aasiya and asks her to marry Abdul again. Wang warns Abdul about Aasiya's feelings for Avinash and drives him mad with jealosy. And the increasingly out of control Abdul and cunning Wang repeat the cycle of TT and NH on the helpless Aasiya.

Part 2 will come later.

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby Falijee » 15 Apr 2017 23:25

CPEC: How Pakistan is losing out to China
Rediff.com » News

Criticism, differences and doubts regarding the China Pakistan Economic Corridor have increased in Pakistan over the past year.The singular central thread that runs through all of them is that Pakistan's sovereignty is increasingly at risk!As Pakistan realises that the CPEC -- with investment now raised to an estimated $54 billion -- cannot be viewed as a silver bullet that will lift Pakistan out of its dire economic difficulties or solve issues afflicting its society, doubts are magnified by the fundamental divergence in how both countries view the CPEC.While for Beijing it is part of a larger strategic objective which it views as an essential stepping stone towards global leadership, Islamabad sees it as a solution for its economic difficulties.Endorsed by the Pakistan Army, politicians of the ruling party and some Pakistani diplomats, the CPEC has been projected as an opportunity that would ensure a 2.5 per cent rise in growth, add over 26,000 MW of energy and provide at least 700,000 jobs for Pakistanis.
Recent assessments by Pakistani economists, ournalists and politicians, however, offer a different picture.There are complaints that inter-provincial resentment and differences have flared, with accusations that the country's eastern portion, where the majority of Pakistan's economic bases are located, is being favoured.The CPEC is now isparagingly called the 'China Punjab Economic Corridor! :D .Because fuel for the CPEC's new power plants must be imported from China's Xinjiang-Uyghur Autonomous Region, the cost per unit of electricity generated will be double the present, adding to the consumers' difficulties.
The bulk of funding has come as loan-based financing to individual companies and not unconditional grants by the Chinese government, yet there is significant risk for the government as many of the power projects are under sovereign gurantees.Additionally, loans taken from Chinese entities by Pakistani companies in the first quarter of 2017 already totals $979 million compared to only $138 million for the same period last year.Pakistan's liabilities, both private and public, are already a staggering 75 per cent of GDP, or Rs 22.5 trillion.Last November, Pakistan was unable to repay Rs 136.5 billion in bank loans stemming from the energy sector and postponed payment for another two years.
While the governor of the State Bank of Pakistan has publicly regretted the absence of transparency in disbursements of funds received from China, the State Bank of Pakistan recently confirmed that Pakistan's tax collection is unable to pay for debt servicing.The trade deficit is also rapidly growing with Pakistan's imports from China rising from 4 per cent last year to 9 per cent already this year.Politicians in the provinces meanwhile complain that while tens of thousands of Chinese workers are employed on CPEC projects, no Pakistanis have yet got jobs. Due diligence not done !. Before jumping into the bed with the Chinese, they should have reviewed similar Chinese arrangements with other countries where defaults have resulted in land being siezed by the Chinese lenders (eg. Tajikistan )
Complaints about the cost of security of the CPEC are mounting and China has declined to defray the expenditure.Because of China's growing concern about the security of the 10,000 Chinese workers and CPEC projects, Pakistan announced it will double the size of the division-strength special security division commanded by a major general by the end of March.Pakistani politicians, who already cavil at the expenditure of $12 million per year on the SSD, have now become more strident in their criticism.The Gwadar port's security, which is of special concern to China, imposes a heavy financial burden on Pakistan.In January 2016, the Pakistan navy decided to deploy two additional marine battalions to provide round the clock security at Gwadar.
The biggest threat to the CPEC and, potentially Sino-Pak relations is the unchecked rise of radicalisation of Islam in Pakistan.The closure on January 11, 2017 of the borders of China's restive Xinjiang-Uyghur Autonomous Region with Pakistan is the first visible crack in the gloss of lacquer that the CPEC seeks to put on the China-Pakistan relationship.Chinese provincial officials are also increasingly naming Pakistan as the source from where Uyghur 'terrorists' enter China.
China informed Islamabad last January that it plans to raise a 10,000-strong 'private army' for deployment in the CPEC to protect workers and construction sites Beggars cannot be choosers! The Pakis have decided to hitch their wagon to the Chinis . They have made their own bed. Now they will have to sleep in it . Apart from CPEC , they have also decided to join the Chinese internet and satellite system !.The accusation that Pakistan risks losing sovereignty to China is emotive and has the potential to spread. It could get aggravated with the presence of Chinese security personnel in Pakistan.Increasing criticism of the CPEC will hamper completion of numerous projects. China will, however, remain intent on achieving its strategic ambitions of acquiring Gwadar port and securing a large chunk of Pakistan occupied Kashmir and adjacent areas.In case of increased problems, it will invest an amount just adequate to keep the Sino-Pakistan relationship in a state of decent repair.

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Analyzing CPEC

Postby Peregrine » 16 Apr 2017 04:02

X Posted on the STFUP Thread

India ‘must address Kashmir issue to become part of CPEC’
KARACHI : Clapistani National Security Adviser (NSA) Lt-Gen (retd) Nasser Khan Janjua is begging India to join CPEC.
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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby arun » 16 Apr 2017 12:04

Peregrine wrote:X Posted on the STFUP Thread

India ‘must address Kashmir issue to become part of CPEC’
KARACHI : Clapistani National Security Adviser (NSA) Lt-Gen (retd) Nasser Khan Janjua is begging India to join CPEC.
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:wink: I was also thinking of suggesting that the Mohammadden Terrorism Fomenting Islamic Republic of Pakistan be invited to join the Ram Janmabhoomi Nyas provided they vacated all of Jammu & Kashmir :lol: .

:wink: Why I was also thinking of taking a pro active step of founding and permitting the Mohammadden Terrorism Fomenting Islamic Republic of Pakistan to join the Association of Pork Producers of the Indian Sub-Continent provided they vacated all of Jammu & Kashmir :lol: .

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby arun » 16 Apr 2017 12:16

The high decibel bragging by the Mohammadden Terrorism fomenting Islamic Republic of Pakistan about the “game changing” economic benefits that would accrue to the Islamic Republic has not changed the fact on the ground that the China Pakistan Economic Corridor aka CPEC is closed for a third of the year :

What can guarantee CPEC’s success

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby SSridhar » 16 Apr 2017 17:36

China hikes investment in CPEC to $62bn from $55bn - Shailaja Neelakantan, ToI
China has again upped its investment in Pakistan in the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), this time t $62 billion from $55 billion, The Express Tribune reported.

The additional financing is for infrastructure projects and industrial zones in Pakistan under CPEC. The volume of China's investment in Pakistan would be significantly higher than $62 billion if its private sector investment is also counted.

China's initial investment for CPEC in Pakistan was $46 billion in 2015; that number has been steadily going up with increasing investments required in Pakistan's infrastructure and power projects. A major chunk of the multibillion-dollar investment, $34 billion, is going into electricity production and distribution.

"This [$62 billion investment] is good news. People will reap dividends of the investment... CPEC will create massive economic momentum in Pakistan," said Sindh Governor Mohammad Zubair, a member of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's core economic team.

Still, it was important to utilize the investment increase properly, said a Pakistan Credit Rating Agency official.

"We need to make sure the process [of utilising the finances] remains transparent," the official said.

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby anupmisra » 16 Apr 2017 18:27

SSridhar wrote:China hikes investment in CPEC to $62bn from $55bn - Shailaja Neelakantan, ToI


Why did the amount of total investment go from $55 B to $62 B? Good question. Here's a simple answer based on a simple fact on lending norms by sharks.

If you borrow a thousand bucks from a lender against an asset value of a thousand bucks, and default on your repayments, the lender will come after your asset. If you borrow a million bucks against an asset value of a thousand bucks and are potentially seen to default on your repayment, the lender will lend you more to be assured that you will make those first few payments.

Simple fact of life. Been doing this long enough to foresee the end game.

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby arun » 16 Apr 2017 19:48

SSridhar wrote:China hikes investment in CPEC to $62bn from $55bn - Shailaja Neelakantan, ToI


Translation:

Peoples Republic of China has cornered more infrastructure projects in the Islamic Republic of Pakistan without competitive bidding.

Or to put it another way “Iron Brother” China has leveraged the Mohammadden Terrorist Fomenting Islamic Republic of Pakistan’s “Deeper than Indian Ocean” dependence on foreign investments to ensure Chinese companies can charge “Higher than Himalayas” costs in order help Chinese corporate entities milk “Sweeter than Honey” profits from Pakistan.

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby arun » 16 Apr 2017 19:49

An article on Suez Canal revenues to illustrate the point that being a transit hub does not necessarily make a country as rich as Crosus.

Suez Canal revenues amounted in 2014 to USD 5.465bn and declined in 2015 amounted to a lower USD 5.175bn.

I doubt the Peoples Republic of China will dole out anything but a small fraction of the Suez revenue to transit goods between Gwadar and Xinjiang if nothing because product volumes will be significantly smaller.

Suez Canal registers revenues of $5.176bn in 2015, down by 5.3%

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby SSridhar » 16 Apr 2017 21:59

anupmisra wrote: . . . If you borrow a million bucks against an asset value of a thousand bucks and are potentially seen to default on your repayment, . . .

Then, either the lender does not deserve to be in the lending business (being unable to assess the mortgage at all) or he has 'bigger plans' knowing the true value of the asset.

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby sudarshan » 16 Apr 2017 22:09

tandav wrote:An interesting story below.

Part 1
....
Part 2 will come later.


Did you write this yourself? Great choice of names:

Abdul = Servant
Aasiya = Abundant, plentiful, flourishing
Wang = <Should I go into this one :mrgreen:>
Avinash = <This one's obvious>

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby anupmisra » 16 Apr 2017 22:29

SSridhar wrote:
anupmisra wrote: . . . If you borrow a million bucks against an asset value of a thousand bucks and are potentially seen to default on your repayment, . . .

Then, either the lender does not deserve to be in the lending business (being unable to assess the mortgage at all) or he has 'bigger plans' knowing the true value of the asset.


You got it.

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby kit » 17 Apr 2017 01:44

SSridhar wrote:
anupmisra wrote: . . . If you borrow a million bucks against an asset value of a thousand bucks and are potentially seen to default on your repayment, . . .

Then, either the lender does not deserve to be in the lending business (being unable to assess the mortgage at all) or he has 'bigger plans' knowing the true value of the asset.



what if the lender values the asset in strategic terms and the asset owner values it in local value .. difference between commercial value and residential value !!

China wants to negate a potential leverage of India on its shipments through the straits and to middle east and europe .

so the grand plan to co opt / buy everyone using money

Will work only if commercially successful in the long run

This needs India to be an active participant.

India should never be a part of CPEC

China will try to overcome this by pulling india into other surrounding economic corridors .. india will always be the biggest cheese here.

How india will play china has to be seen

Munna pakistan can throw a spanner into the works any time :mrgreen:

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby SSridhar » 17 Apr 2017 12:16

CPEC and the Future of Gilgit Baltistan - Zainab Akhter, IDSA Comment
Gilgit-Baltistan (GB), formerly known as the Northern Areas, which is an integral part of the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir but currently under Pakistani occupation, has come into prominence with the announcement of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). CPEC, a part of China’s broader One-Belt-One-Road (OBOR) initiative, is widely hailed in Pakistan as a game changer that is destined to bring considerable economic benefits. But amidst the debate in Pakistan focused on the economics and politics of CPEC, the aspirations of the people of GB are being ignored. Any voice raised against CPEC is muffled by the media. Nobody in Pakistan is clear as to where GB stands in the larger narrative on CPEC.

CPEC: Where is GB placed?

When it comes to development, GB remains the most neglected region under Pakistani control. There has not been any serious effort by successive governments to mainstream the region either through connectivity or political and social reforms. Due to its geographical location, GB shares a border with Pakistan’s all-weather friend China. Given the porous nature of the border, the people of the region claim that they have had more in common with the Chinese historically and culturally. China is credited with increasing the geostrategic value of the region by developing the Karakoram highway (KKH), which was started in the 1950s and completed in 1978. The highway is reported to have been used by China to transport weapons and missiles to Pakistan, albeit covertly without the knowledge of the locals.1

Although China has been able to make inroads into the region through its previous development projects, CPEC, touted as China’s largest investment project in Pakistan so far, has given rise to doubts and discontent among the locals for want of a clear roadmap and policy by the government of Pakistan. Estimates and forecasts show that the region itself is likely to gain very little from CPEC despite a projected total investment of about USD 50 billion. There has been talk of Punjab province cornering a major portion of the planned investment. That has led to other provinces demanding greater openness about the project as well as a greater share for themselves of the expected investments so that all-round development can be ensured. Many economists and analysts have argued that Pakistan does not have the absorptive capacity for the huge infrastructural development envisioned and may unwittingly walk into a huge debt trap. They caution that the Chinese are not particularly charitable, with the interest rates charged for loans pegged very high. Hence, the benefits that could accrue to Pakistan through investment in power production in particular could be offset by the burden on the exchequer by way of rising debt.

The ongoing Pakistani debate over the benefits and costs notwithstanding, there is very little debate about the economic aspirations of, and the costs likely to be suffered by, the people of GB. There are reports in the media that land is being forcibly acquired and without paying compensation by the local administration on directions from Islamabad for the purpose of establishing a Special Economic Zone in Maqpon Das Village in tehsil Denyuore, Gilgit. Such arbitrary actions under the banner of development is adding to the misery and discontent of the locals.

Legal Status of GB

Gilgit Baltistan has been under the control of Pakistan since April 1949, when the leadership of the so-called Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) was forced to sign away this territory to Pakistan. However, the region does not have any place in the constitutional framework of Pakistan and has been kept under the tight control of the central government. Even the grant of national representative governance in 2009 has not altered the ground reality in any significant manner. It appears that China has lately been advising Pakistan to explore the possibility of absorbing the region as a province so that the ‘disputed’ tag is removed and CPEC can go ahead without diplomatic complications vis-à-vis India. Such a step by Pakistan is, however, likely to adversely impact the India-Pakistan equation and escalate tensions and consequently have a detrimental effect on CPEC itself.

Pakistan’s contemplation of the idea of designating GB as its fifth province has already drawn flak from separatists in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir who otherwise welcome every move by Pakistan pertaining to Kashmir. A few months back, Yassin Malik wrote an open letter to Pakistan criticising the move and advised Pakistan not to take such a decision because it could have a detrimental effect on the larger Kashmir issue.

Interestingly, the people of GB tend to compare their region with Ladakh, which, according to them, enjoys democratic rights and has seen much better socio-political and economic development. They also demand hill councils for GB, modeled after the hill council of Ladakh. On many occasions during protests against the Pakistani state, they walk to the LoC and evince a desire to cross over to Ladakh for the purpose of leading a better life.

The Future

It needs to be underlined here that the people of GB have been demonstrating against the step-motherly treatment meted out to their region by Pakistan for decades. Some demand greater rights and representation within Pakistan, while others demand outright independence. Despite Pakistani claims to the contrary, the government’s record of investment in the local economy remains poor and patchy. Unemployment rates are soaring, leading to an exodus of youth from the region to different areas of Pakistan as well as to the Persian Gulf and other regions.

Although GB is the entry point for CPEC, initially there was hardly any attention given to this region. This is illustrated by the fact that at one point the Pakistan government actually considered shifting the dry port at Sost to a suitable area in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, but desisted only because of popular pressure. Given the historical neglect of the region as well as land grabbing and other exploitative measures, the people of the region are sceptical about the prospects of economic improvement from CPEC.

It has to be noted that GB hardly finds a mention in statements related to CPEC. Despite the narrative of development, locals had earlier viewed the coming of KKH with apprehension, which later came true when the route began to be used for drug trafficking and gun running. The fact of the matter is that the people of GB have no say on CPEC projects. Nor are the rights of the locals protected as evident from forced land procurement for the corridor project. Minus the upgradation of the KKH, CPEC will only lead to a sprinkling of development, with much of the benefits going to the interiors of Pakistan (especially Punjab and Sindh).

The lack of representation in Pakistan’s parliament and government structures for the people of GB is a grim reminder of the region’s neglect by the government of Pakistan. Given an already upset population and the presence of anti-establishment factions, the unequal distribution of the benefits of CPEC is likely to ignite protests and cause a setback to the initiative as well to the Pakistan establishment.

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby chola » 17 Apr 2017 13:04

Ah, to hell with it. Over time, the chinis will pull it off. They always do. The fact they could even begin a project like CPEC as just one minor piece of the much larger OBOR means they've discover the same fvcking printing press as the US (and Japan.)

They are coming up with money in amounts that shouldn't even be possible at their stage in development.

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby kit » 17 Apr 2017 13:10

sudarshan wrote:
tandav wrote:An interesting story below.

Part 1
....
Part 2 will come later.


Did you write this yourself? Great choice of names:

Abdul = Servant = pakistani military
Aasiya = Abundant, plentiful, flourishing = country of pakistan itself with its civilians
Wang = <Should I go into this one :mrgreen:> = China and its companies
Avinash = india

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby kit » 17 Apr 2017 13:16

chola wrote:Ah, to hell with it. Over time, the chinis will pull it off. They always do. The fact they could even begin a project like CPEC as just one minor piece of the much larger OBOR means they've discover the same fvcking printing press as the US (and Japan.)

They are coming up with money in amounts that shouldn't even be possible at their stage in development.


interesting .. just manipulate the currency and make the financial accounting opaque .. to hell with bubbles ! .. matter of fact everyone including india is paying for CPEC whether you want it or not .. happens when you are dependent on some nation for something ..

now why doesnt india build up commercial activities on its islands to rival hong kong / macau / maldives ?? who is stopping india ? .. India needs to build alternatives to all other countries in the region . best and easiest way to keep other countries in line

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby tandav » 17 Apr 2017 13:21

chola wrote:Ah, to hell with it. Over time, the chinis will pull it off. They always do. The fact they could even begin a project like CPEC as just one minor piece of the much larger OBOR means they've discover the same fvcking printing press as the US (and Japan.)

They are coming up with money in amounts that shouldn't even be possible at their stage in development.


India is getting there too. By increasing the circulation velocity which in China is propelled by Govt spending.

I do admire the Chinese in this respect. I have been saying for long. There are now 2 different paradigms of development 1) with democratic human rights / freedoms and chaotic activity which India is following and 2) Chinese style corporation style with very little freedoms but yet satisfactory HDI development and focussed activity.

Unless the Indian model starts becoming more efficient as compared to the Chinese model we will continue to cede ground around our periphery and sphere of influence. Just like China adds territory to its borders India too should actively add other nations within its borders using a democratic mandate

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby chola » 17 Apr 2017 13:47

tandav wrote:
chola wrote:Ah, to hell with it. Over time, the chinis will pull it off. They always do. The fact they could even begin a project like CPEC as just one minor piece of the much larger OBOR means they've discover the same fvcking printing press as the US (and Japan.)

They are coming up with money in amounts that shouldn't even be possible at their stage in development.


India is getting there too. By increasing the circulation velocity which in China is propelled by Govt spending.

I do admire the Chinese in this respect. I have been saying for long. There are now 2 different paradigms of development 1) with democratic human rights / freedoms and chaotic activity which India is following and 2) Chinese style corporation style with very little freedoms but yet satisfactory HDI development and focussed activity.

Unless the Indian model starts becoming more efficient as compared to the Chinese model we will continue to cede ground around our periphery and sphere of influence. Just like China adds territory to its borders India too should actively add other nations within its borders using a democratic mandate



The problem is they are NOT efficient. They can't be as a ******** hybrid between a commie state with a mainly top down investment led system and a trade oriented MNC-led market place. We know wealth is being created from trade with a giant forex cache backing local currency. But the credit being raised for OBOR on top of the massive investments going on in Africa and South America shouldn't really be possible unless it is coming from an advance economy like the US, Japan or EU. Not to mention the ghost cities, HSR and the other insane projects internally.

We couldn't even provide enough cash to pull Nepal or Sri Lanka fully into our orbit. But that is natural, third world countries cannot produce surplus credit to invest outside their borders (if they could, they would no longer be third world.) Printing money like this, unless you are the US and Japan, usually have you end up like Zimbabwe or Argentina.

But here is the PRC, still mostly a 3rd world shithole, throwing credit for infrastructure around the world. This has bug me for years. Very unfair to compete against people who don't behave according to common sense economics.

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby sudarshan » 17 Apr 2017 19:33

kit wrote:Did you write this yourself? Great choice of names:

Abdul = Servant = pakistani military
Aasiya = Abundant, plentiful, flourishing = country of pakistan itself with its civilians
Wang = <Should I go into this one :mrgreen:> = China and its companies
Avinash = india


I got that, was just curious where the story came from.

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby kit » 17 Apr 2017 20:19

Also answer to why china has so much moolah .. taxes taxes .. india barely 5 to 10 percent pay taxes ..china i guess everyone does as well as foreign companies ..so lot of dough for the party to roll around .. being a democracy is not necessarily a virtue

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby anupmisra » 18 Apr 2017 02:07

Will CPEC lead to Kashmir resolution?
By Tehelka.com

The fear among separatists in Kashmir is that if Pakistan unilaterally makes a disputed part of Kashmir as its integral part, it will encourage India to do the same in its part of Kashmir. But Pakistan, on the other hand, is realizing that its convoluted constitutional relationship with the province is complicating the execution of CPEC on the ground. And India, though opposing the passage of CPEC through Gilgit-Baltistan, is hardly in a position to bring the province under its control. On the contrary, New Delhi is already feeling a pull to join the CPEC and the China’s larger Belt and Road initiative, with China and even Pakistan extending a hand. The new geo-political dynamics that are in play are expected to generate momentum towards an integrated region.


Wha....!??

http://www.tehelka.com/2017/04/will-cpe ... esolution/

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby anupmisra » 18 Apr 2017 02:31

And that's how the its supposed to work.

Chinese firm wins bid to supply steel for Karachi nuclear power plant

Baosteel has won a bid to supply steel to the ongoing nuclear coastal power plants (K-2 K-3) in Karachi, in what is being reported to be the "first export deal for China-designed, third-generation nuclear power technology"
It is pertinent to mention that the National Tariff Commission (NTC) in February had imposed definitive anti-dumping duties on imports of galvanised steel coils and sheets in the range of six to 41 per cent.
On the request of domestic producers of galvanised steel coils and sheets, the NTC had initiated an investigation on Aug 11, 2015 against dumping of galvanised steel coils and sheets from China into Pakistan and its impact on the domestic industry.


So against their sovereign g'rantee, china lends the pakis for the nooklear plant and promptly pays itself to design, bid, build and deliver the plant. Pakis owe the chinese $10 Bn. plus interest. Now paki g'rantees are at stake. If the pakis can not meet the debt service and therefore default, china will lend them , er... invest more money because they are the iron bros. Eventually the lend/repay/default/beg/lend/default/beg/lend...cycle will be complete and the takeover of paki assets will be a no brainer.

I wonder if the supply of the special steel was an open bid and how many chinese suppliers bid this job? To the paki lurks: hurry up before you all come to your senses.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1327573/chine ... ia-reports

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby ArjunPandit » 18 Apr 2017 03:24

kit wrote:Also answer to why china has so much moolah .. taxes taxes .. india barely 5 to 10 percent pay taxes ..china i guess everyone does as well as foreign companies ..so lot of dough for the party to roll around .. being a democracy is not necessarily a virtue

A significant amount is also due to trade surplus with other countries. They have been running huge surpluses over past one decade. This money is accumulating.
Image
Compare that to India
Image

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby Santosh » 18 Apr 2017 09:51

chola wrote:We couldn't even provide enough cash to pull Nepal or Sri Lanka fully into our orbit. But that is natural, third world countries cannot produce surplus credit to invest outside their borders (if they could, they would no longer be third world.) Printing money like this, unless you are the US and Japan, usually have you end up like Zimbabwe or Argentina.

But here is the PRC, still mostly a 3rd world shithole, throwing credit for infrastructure around the world. This has bug me for years. Very unfair to compete against people who don't behave according to common sense economics.

So how are they able to pull it off? If we do it to the extent that they are doing, we would end up with hyper inflation like Zimbabwe. But they are able to somehow manage inflation. Is it because the investment goes outside China and does not end up causing inflation?

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Analyzing CPEC

Postby Peregrine » 18 Apr 2017 14:57

X Posted on the STFUP Thread

China says CPEC has 'no direct link' with Kashmir issue

BEIJING: China on Tuesday defended the strategic China-Pakistan Economic Corridor passing through PoK over which India has lodged strong protests, saying the project has "no direct link" with the Kashmir issue as it was an "economic" venture.

Seeking to allay India's concerns, China also said New Delhi was welcome to actively participate in the 'One Belt One Road' (OBOR) project, a pet initiative of Chinese President Xi Jinping.

"First, I want to say that we welcome India's participation in the building of the One Belt One Road project," Chinese Foreign Minister Wank Yi said addressing a media briefing on the OBOR summit to be held here from May 14 -15. Why is China "begging" India to join CPEC & OBOR? Surely it must be to ENTRAP India!" I have a Blain Wave : India should deny Clapistan to join - tlavelse the India - Bangladesh - Myanmar - China Ploject!

OBOR is the official name for the multi-billion dollars Silk Road project initiated by Xi to expand China's connectivity and strategic influence in the neighbourhood and around the world.

The OBOR summit has posed a dilemma for India as the USD 46 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship project of the initiative which passes through the Pakistan- occupied Kashmir (PoK).
Commenting for the first time on India's objections over the CPEC, Wank said, "You also mentioned CPEC, I want to reiterate that economic corridor is economic." Mistel Wank lie with stlaight face!

It is for the purpose of serving economic cooperation and development, Wank said, replying to a question about what specific steps China was willing to take to address India's concerns to enable it take part in the OBOR summit. Mr. Wank should undelstand that India's conceln is "NOT TO HAVE CPEC transgressing India's Tellitoly of Clapistani Occupied Kashmil"

"It (CPEC) has no direct link with (the) political and boundary dispute. Certain sections of the CPEC have raised concern on the Indian side. But these disputes are not the result of the economic corridor and economic activities," Wank said, defending the project over which India has protested to China in the past.

Economic activities in these regions are not the direct result of the CPEC. China has been providing support to Pakistan in these areas for many years, Wank said.

"This is a contribution China is making for the development of neighbouring countries, it is a constructive contribution China is making," he said.

"As for the dispute of Kashmir, China's position remained unchanged. Also, CPEC has no relationship with the dispute in certain regions...if India wants to take part in the OBOR, there are many channels and ways," he said.

Wang also said China has taken positive note of India's participation in another project -- the Bangladesh, China, India, Myanmar (BCIM) corridor.

"India is taking part in the project in its own way. For example, we have this BCIM which is one of the major economic corridors China is planning with the neighbouring countries," he said.

"We have taken note of India's positive attitude on this. In addition to the BCIM economic corridor, we can also have further discussion of cooperation on the OBOR," Wang said.

He said 28 heads of state and government will participate.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, Sri Lankan Premier Ranil Wickremesinghe and Myanmar State Councillor Aung San Suu Kyi are among the leaders that have confirmed their participation.

"Although, an Indian leader will not be here but India will have a representative," Wank said, without specifying who would be representing India.

"We welcome Indian representative, members of the Indian business community and financial community to take part in the discussions at the summit," Wank said.

Representatives of 110 countries besides UN Secretary General, heads of World Bank and IMF will also be taking part in the event, Wank said.

The summit will have 1,200 participants, Wank said.

Cheers Image

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Analyzing CPEC

Postby Peregrine » 18 Apr 2017 15:02

anupmisra wrote:And that's how the its supposed to work.

Chinese firm wins bid to supply steel for Karachi nuclear power plant

https://www.dawn.com/news/1327573/chine ... ia-reports
anupmisra Ji :
Who will give Clapistan Credit to buy Steel for Karachi's nuclear power station?

I am sure that this supply of Steel will also become a Part of CPEC! :rotfl:
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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby Falijee » 18 Apr 2017 15:17

Cheenis Being Snubbed On "One Belt One Road " :roll:

Most major Western leaders to skip China's New Silk Road summit

Only one leader of a big Western country is attending China's most important diplomatic event of the year, a summit next month on Chinese President Xi Jinping's New Silk Road strategy, as China's foreign minister denied it had been snubbed. (When is it "diplomatic" to admit snubbing :mrgreen:)
Only one leader of a big Western country is attending China's most important diplomatic event of the year, a summit next month on Chinese President Xi Jinping's New Silk Road strategy, as China's foreign minister denied it had been snubbed.
China was privately upset in 2015 after most Western leaders rebuffed invitations to attend a big military parade through Beijing marking 70 years since the end of World War Two :D
Leaders from countries that would appear to have little, if any, connection to the plan are coming to the summit, including Chile and Argentina.“Everyone wants to be China's friend now with Trump in office,” said a senior Asian diplomat in Beijing. While China says the New Silk Road is not political, it has run into opposition from India due to a section of it in Pakistan, known as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, where some projects run through the disputed Kashmir region.Wang dismissed those concerns, saying the Pakistan project had nothing to do with the dispute and India was welcome to participate in the New Silk Road. There were "unconfirmed rumours" that the whole "Pakistani nation", including cabinet members, COAS all current and former members of national and provincial assemblies of Pakiland have been invited to the meet :mrgreen:
.
PS: Invitations sent ( by mistake !) to the late father and daughter duo ( Zulfiqar and Benazir ) were marked "return to sender" :!:

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby anupmisra » 18 Apr 2017 16:55

Falijee wrote:Cheenis Being Snubbed On "One Belt One Road "

Most major Western leaders to skip China's New Silk Road summitPS: Invitations sent ( by mistake !) to the late father and daughter duo ( Zulfiqar and Benazir ) were marked "return to sender"


I thought the invites to pinky and stinky would be marked - "please forward"?

By the way, Putin may also attend. Got to show solidarity, right? But the only western leader from G7 who has tentatively accepted the invite is the Italian Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni. He leads a bankrupt nation and was recently "appointed" as PM in December 2016 when Renzi was booted out. Seen as a puppet for the ex-PM, Renzi, he will take any invitation as a mark of acceptance.

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby Karthik S » 18 Apr 2017 17:15

Do you remember for a certain event I don't recall which, the chinese invited SG from India. She was the only "Indian" invited for that event. It was a subtle way of snubbing us then.

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby Austin » 18 Apr 2017 17:19

These So called Western Leaders have the largest Trading Base with China and they are more than happy to open Renminbi trading base in UK and get big orders for Airbus and Manuf for EU.

The EU & China are very intermingled with each other much like US and China trade

The boycott is just for optics and nothing on substance

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby chola » 18 Apr 2017 21:00

Austin wrote:These So called Western Leaders have the largest Trading Base with China and they are more than happy to open Renminbi trading base in UK and get big orders for Airbus and Manuf for EU.

The EU & China are very intermingled with each other much like US and China trade

The boycott is just for optics and nothing on substance

Image



Boycott is more over Putin being there then any issues with cheen.

The chini investments in Africa, South America and now the CAR is a windfall for many western firms as well. Infrastructure building is a low return/high risk proposition.

If the chinis are dumb enough to do it then let them, the Western firms will make use of the roads and rail and telcom after they are built. As Indians we are not Chanakyian enough to do the same.

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby Austin » 19 Apr 2017 00:44

chola wrote:Boycott is more over Putin being there then any issues with cheen.


Putin keeps meeting Western leaders just late last month Finish and iceland president visited moscow and yesterday they have Normady talk with western leaders.

The boycott is just optics they are more than happy to entertain Cheen and Russian on business interest .....No one can beat the hypocrisy of West in that regard

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Re: Analyzing CPEC

Postby tandav » 21 Apr 2017 08:55

sudarshan wrote:
kit wrote:Did you write this yourself? Great choice of names:

Abdul = Servant = pakistani military
Aasiya = Abundant, plentiful, flourishing = country of pakistan itself with its civilians
Wang = <Should I go into this one :mrgreen:> = China and its companies
Avinash = india


I got that, was just curious where the story came from.


My own overactive imagination inspired from too many Saas Bahu serials :rotfl:


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