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Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan- November 7, 2016

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Kashi
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Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan- November 7, 2016

Postby Kashi » 07 Nov 2016 06:36

The Last page of the previous thread

The following links are background material on Pakistan.

UNDERSTANDING PAKISTAN:

Jinnah's Pakistan: An Interview with MA Jinnah, and how the Pakistan of Yesterday is the Pakistan of Today
http://iref.homestead.com/Messiah.html

http://hsgac.senate.gov/public/_files/012809Tellis.pdf
The above is the testimony of Ashley Tellis on Jan 28th 2009, to the US Senate Homeland Security Committee on LeT's global role. It is a good articulation of LeT's past and future trends.

Know Your Pakistan
http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/archives/ ... /Shiv.html

The Monkey Trap: A synopsis of Indo-Pak relations
http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/archives/ ... ayyam.html

PAKISTAN-FAILED STATE: an ebook that owes its origin and existence to BRF.
http://pakistanfailedstate.blogspot.in/

Whither Pakistan ? Growing Instability and Implications for India: an IDSA e-Book, July 2010
http://idsa.in/book/WhitherPakistan

A landmark article that demolishes myths built up about Pakistan
http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers8/paper710.html

Pak's Continuing War against Indian Civilisation - Tufail Ahmad, Director South Asia Project, MEMRI
http://www.newindianexpress.com/columns ... 949359.ece

Pakistani Role in Terrorism Against the U.S.A
http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/MONITOR/I ... yanan.html

Pakistani Education, or how Pakistan became what it is: Curricula and textbooks in Pakistan
http://www.sdpi.org/publications/public ... 6-34.html#

Making Enemies, Creating Conflict: Pakistan's Crises of State and Society. A book written by Pakistanis on Pakistan.
http://members.tripod.com/~no_nukes_sa/Contents.html

Should Pakistan Be Broken Up? by Gul Agha
http://pakistan70.tripod.com/gul.html

A modest proposal from the Brigadier:
https://www.theatlantic.com/past/docs/i ... desman.htm

"We should fire at them and take out a few of their cities—Delhi, Bombay, Calcutta," he said. "They should fire back and take Karachi and Lahore. Kill off a hundred or two hundred million people......."


Alden Pyle in Pakistan, Part I
http://pundita.blogspot.com/2009/12/ald ... art-1.html

Prof. Walter Russell Mead, "Pakistan's Failed National Strategy"
http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/ ... -strategy/

"Pakistan Is", by Barry Bearak in New York Times Magazine, December 7, 2003.
Brings out succinctly various facets of Pakistani perfidy, obsession, fundamentalism etc.
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.h ... nted=print

Religion as the Foundation of a Nation: The Making and Unmaking of Pakistan - P.K. Upadhyay, IDSA
It probes the religious and sectarian fault-lines in Pakistan in depth to determine their impact on the future of Pakistan.
http://idsa.in/system/files/monograph36.pdf

Ms. Christine Fair's exposition on Pakistan military, society et al. A Must see.
Fighting to the End: Pakistan Army's Way of War

False Equivalency in the "Indo-Pakistan" Dispute - Ms. C. Fair, War on the Rocks, June, 2015

Shia-killing in Pakistan: Background and Predictions - A blog by Omar Ali

PAKISTAN and GENOCIDE:

Image Scan of article on 1971 East Pakistan Genocide by Antony Mascarenhas, Former Asst. Editor, Morning News, Karachi in Sunday Times, London, June 13, 1971

Text scan of the above article on 1971 Genocide

Bangladesh Genocide Archive

Ethnic cleansing in Pakistan - a statistical analysis
http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/MONITOR/I ... idhar.html

A chronicle of genocide by the Pakistan army
http://www.gendercide.org/case_bangladesh.html

Documentary video evidence of Pakistani genocide in Bangladesh
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0x-94U1bVUQ
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=EBKlIUbpc ... re=related
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=sMg9Ly9nK0g
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=xwwPbkyZV ... re=related

List of military arms supplied by US to Pakistan since 9/11
http://i21.servimg.com/u/f21/15/54/62/79/pakist10.jpg

PAKISTAN & TERRORISM:

The Ideologies of South Asian Jihadi Groups (Laskar-e-Taiba)
By Hussein Haqqani (journalist and Pak ambassador to US)
http://www.futureofmuslimworld.com/rese ... detail.asp

Lashkar-e-Taiba: Past Operations and Future Prospects, Stephen Tankel, April 2011
New America Foundation
http://newamerica.net/sites/newamerica. ... _LeT_0.pdf

Pakistani sponsoring of Terrorism
http://www.geocities.com/charcha_2000/
http://pak-terror.freeservers.com/Terro ... y_Tool.htm

Terror Map: The Pakistani Hand
http://sify.com/news/specials/terrormap/?vsv=TopHP1

Inside Jihad - How Pakistan sponsors terrorists in India
http://www.time.com/time/asia/magazine/ ... r_sb1.html

Pakistan's Role in the Kashmir Insurgency - Op-ed by Rand's Peter Chalk
http://www.rand.org/hot/op-eds/090101JIR.html

Alden Pyle in Pakistan, Part II
http://pundita.blogspot.com/2009/12/ald ... -upon.html

BEYOND MADRASAS: ASSESSING THE LINKS BETWEEN EDUCATION AND MILITANCY IN PAKISTAN
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/ ... nthrop.pdf

Pakistani Military Officers' Links with Jihadist Organizations
http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/5587.htm

Putting Our Children in Line of Fire - The Nation, January 27, 2013
The above is an admission by Pakistan Army's Top General that it was the Pakistani Army at Kargil, not the mujahideen, and Musharraf was the Culprit

Debate between a Taliban Scholar and a Paki Army Officer

PAKISTAN and NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION:

Pakistani nuclear scientist's accounts tell of Chinese proliferation - R. Jeffrey Smith and Joby Warrick, Washington Post, Nov 13, 2009

PAKISTAN TODAY:

On the Frontier of Apocalypse: Christopher Hitchens seminal article on Pakistan today
http://newsstuff.0catch.com/article5.htm

http://meaindia.nic.in/bestoftheweb/2002/10/14bow2.htm

A Slender Reed in Pakistan - Editorial in the Christian Science Monitor
http://www.csmonitor.com/2003/1229/p08s03-comv.html

Seymour Hersh Interview
http://www.pbs.org/now/transcript/transcript_hersh.html

Pakistan's Nuclear Crimes (Wash. Post editorial)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dy ... 2-2004Feb4

http://www.indiadefence.com/LOA07Aug04.htm

The Battle for Pakistan: Militancy and Conflict in Pakistan's Tribal Regions
http://counterterrorism.newamerica.net/ ... r_pakistan

BOOK REVIEW Fulcrum of Evil: ISI-CIA-Al Qaeda Nexus
http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpap ... r1844.html

Article from Vinni Capelli - Foreign Policy Research Institute:
Containing Pakistan: Engaging the Raja-Mandala in South-Central Asia
http://www.fpri.org/orbis/5101/cappelli ... kistan.pdf

The videos are from this documentary: http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/taliban/

A bomb at all cost By Ahmad Faruqui - a candid admission of the wars that Pakistan started against India.

Popular support for suicide bombings in pakistan.
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.as ... 008_pg12_1
Survey by university students in karachi say 50% of respondents support suicide bombings in kashmir.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=OWsmJIwe9Q4
"Descent into Chaos"
UC Berkeley Conversations with History, host Harry Kreisler talking with Pakistani Journalist Ahmed Rashid. 59 minutes 120 MB. It sums up Pakistan and lays bare all Pakistan's terrorist support and proliferation activities. **Note - he wants the US to solve Pakistan's Kashmir problem.

Pakistan on the brink: Video Link (must download)

MISCELLANEOUS

UNSC Resolutions on Kashmir

Gilgit Rebellion: The Major Who Mutinied Over Partition of India
A book on the events by Maj. William Brown, the mutineer himself.

Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto telling Bangladeshis to "Go to Hell": http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Dsxfyxa ... re=related

IDSA's weekly summary of Pak Urdu Press:

http://www.idsa.in/pup

Christine Fair :Ten fictions that pakistani defense officials love to peddle

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Five installment series by Kapil Komireddi published in Frum Forum

Part I. Nov 16, 2009. “Pakistan In Crisis”.

Part II. Nov 18. 2009. “Pakistan: Origins of A Failed State”.

Part III. Nov 18, 2009. “Pakistan: It Could Not Succeed Unless India Failed”.

Part IV. Dec 06, 2009. “Pakistan: A Mecca for Radical Islam”.

Part V. Dec. 07, 2009. “Pakistan’s Army: Building a Nation for Jihad”

A perceptive blog on Pakistan: http://pak-watch.blogspot.com/

Declassified documents from US National Archives on Pakistan:

http://www.icdc.com/~paulwolf/pakistan/pakistan.htm
_______________________________________________

Admission of state sponsored terrorism by Pakistani authorities

see this Der Spigel Interview where Musharraf admits to that.

On 7th Nov in TimesNow Channel, Tasneem Noorani, a former Secretary of the Pakistani Interior Ministry, openly said that.

Kiyani called the Haqqanis as strategic assets.

In Dec. 2008, President Zardari himself admitted to ISI helping LeT. He said,"The links between the Inter-Services Intelligence Agency and the LeT were developed in the old days when dictators used to run the country. After the 9/11 terror attacks in the US, things have changed to a great extent"

In an address to bureaucrats in July 2009, President Zardari said: "Militants and extremists were deliberately created and nurtured as a policy to achieve some short-term tactical objectives. Let us be truthful to ourselves and make a candid admission of the realities. The terrorists of today were the heroes of yesteryears until 9/11 occurred and they began to haunt us as well"

In Nov. 2009, Prime Minister Gilani admitted to the support for terrorism by Musharraf as "running with the hares and hunting with the hounds".

When Bush warned the Pakistanis in August 2008 of their support to Al Qaeda, Afrasiab Khattak, President of Awami National Party (ANP) said this: "The question is why it has taken the Americans so long to see what the ISI is doing. We’ve been telling them for years but they wouldn’t buy it.". See here.

In an interview to the BBC as far back as on Feb. 13, 1994, Benazir Bhutto admitted how she handed over to Rajiv Gandhi the complete list of Sikh activists colluding with the ISI in terrorism in the Punjab. Later, Nawaz Sharif described this interview as a faux pas.

Apart from these, of course, numerous Pakistani commentators, analysts, and editors have openly admitted to terror as a state policy.

________________________________________________________________________

Why Did Pakistan's Spy Chief Make a Secret Trip to China?

Pasha's China trip has been interpreted by some as a tacit act of defiance—a reminder to his American counterparts that the Pakistanis can always look east to their “all-weather” friend across the Himalayas rather than bend the knee to the will of the U.S.

But it also may be a sign of China's growing disquiet with Pakistan. Another top-ranking Pakistani military officer, Lt. Gen Wahid Arshad, had already conducted a considerable tour of China just weeks ago in a bid to improve ties. A few analysts have suggested that Pasha's trip — couched in vague terms about building a “broad-based strategic dialogue” — may have been less a visit and more of a summons.


Chinese officials claimed the attacks in Kashgar were authored by the shadowy East Turkestan Islamic Movement, a jihadist organization of mostly ethnic Uighurs, a Turkic Muslim minority that comprises the majority in the far-western Chinese region of Xinjiang. China routinely invokes the specter of the terrorist threat when cracking down on dissent in the restive region. Yet disturbances there tend to be triggered more often by social discontent — many Uighurs chafe at state policies they deem discriminatory and marginalizing — than militant connivance. Pasha's presence in Beijing may mark Beijing's continued efforts to root out Uighur dissidents and sympathizers beyond China's borders, as it has already done in Kazakhstan.


Youtube video: Bilatakalluf with Tahif Gora: Tarek Fateh dissects with Pakjabi society and shows how its war-impotent Army loots the common Pakistani (Jan 13, 2012)
Last edited by Kashi on 07 Nov 2016 11:05, edited 2 times in total.

Baikul
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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan- November 7, 2016

Postby Baikul » 07 Nov 2016 07:24

Re posting SS's post on Pakistan from page 71 of the last thread as it deserves more play

SSridhar wrote:
Long Post*

la.khan wrote:
Meanwhile, along the LoC, IB ....
Massive paki army build up along the LoC, IB

Can this be confirmed? If true, looks like our retaliation was truly mooh tod 8)


There have been reports for the last few days that Rangers are being replaced by the Regulars at many places. So, this news report must be true.

Nothing surprising either. It has always been the PA that was driving Pakistan's India policy, more so after Nawaz conceded space to Gen. Raheel.

The first was the 2014 Long March of Imran Khan which the Nawaz Govt asked Gen. Raheel to stop. Then, in the wake of the Army Public School carnage, the Army acquired judicial powers in terrorism cases without any oversight from even the Supreme Court. The Army then took over Karachi. In the meanwhile, Ufa agreement between Modi & Nawaz in July 2015 was twisted by the PA to create not only a bad name for Nawaz but also take over completely the India-centric foreign policy engagement of Pakistan. Nawaz feared that appointing a Foreign Minister would be more harmful as the PA could steamroll him/her as we have seen earlier with all of them (recent memories of Birkin Babe Hina Rabbani Khar or Shah mehmood Qureshi before her etc. The only exception was Z.A.Bhutto when he was the FM in Ayub Khan's ministry) and kept the portfolio to himself with Sartaj Aziz as just an advisor. But, that strategy didn't help him. Look at the operative part of Ufa statement below (from the full text of the Joint Statement) and see how the PA twisted it to rouse anger in Pakistan:

‘They agreed that India and Pakistan have a collective responsibility to ensure peace and promote development. To do so, they are prepared to discuss all outstanding issues.

Both leaders condemned terrorism in all its forms and agreed to cooperate with each other to eliminate this menace from South Asia.

They also agreed on the following steps to be taken by the two sides:

A meeting in New Delhi between the two NSAs to discuss all issues connected to terrorism.’



The PA instigated Diffa-e-Pakistan Council and there were massive demonstrations. This PA intervention led to Pakistan toughening its stand. The blistering press meet by Ms. Sushma Swaraj and her insistence on Sartaj Aziz not meeting the Huriiyat were cited by Pakistan to extricate itself from having to meet the Indian NSA Ajit Doval and face the music on terrorism. The Nawaz government also satisfied the PA in the process. This fiasco led to the veteran wily fox Sartaj Aziz who also functioned as NSA being removed from that post and Lt. Gen Janjua appointed by the PA in his place. Even in a Pakistan where the PA rules, this was unique because all NSAs were choices of the PM (even though they happened to be military men), but here Janjua was appointed by the PA forcefully. His office was in the PM's Secretariat unlike those of the other NSAs before located in the Pakistani Foreign Office.

Then, in early 2016, the PanamaGate scandal broke and Gen. Sharif who had dismissed some Frontier Corps Generals & other officers for corruption demanded Nawaz Sharif to act similarly, implying that he himself must resign as well. There is also the handing over of the CPEC project to the PA, a demand supported by China as well amid strong opposition from Nawaz. In between all these, the ISPR launched a massive pro-Raheel campaign. Banners & billboards sprouted everywhere in Pakistan asking Gen. Raheel to takeover the country. He is called a "soldier's soldier" and his proud family lineage (his dead brother got the highest military award) are recounted frequently. He is today a 'larger than life' persona in Pakistan. As he nears retirement, there are ISI-sponsored banners asking him to start a political party!

Janjua & Doval had a few secret meetings as the PA for the very first time was directly involved in engaging with GoI, after Musharraf's Presidency. A surprise visit by Modi to Lahore was also made possible as a result. But, PA could not keep away from its penchant to keep doing something against India all the time. Soon, it was the terror attack on the strategic Pathankot Air Force Base in early January, 2016. The drama of joint investigation by Pakistan to visit PAFB was followed by Pakistan going back in allowing a reciprocal Indian investigation team visit to Pakistan. Things really started to go bad after this duplicity. Soon, PA began instigating Kashmiri youth for months of terror, arson and violence to be followed by the Uri attack in mid-September.

In the meanwhile, the relationship between Nawaz & Raheel were going from bad to worse. The PA and its paramilitary Rangers had successfully used NAP since May 2015 to cleanse Karachi of largely MQM and some PPP elements along with AQIS, LeJ & TTP. In March 2016, they announced that they would do so to Lahore too after the Gulshan-i-Iqbal Park attack on Easter-celebrating Christians, a statement that was clearly disliked by the Shariff brothers as the Army wanted to take over their pocket-borough. Now, we can probably understand why PML-N revealed the minutes of the meeting, after the Indian surgical strike, where Shahbaz Sharif blasted the ISI for interfering in the handling of the terrorists by the ISI.

The surgical strikes by the IA after the Uri attack altered the ground situation because that action by GoI came as a thunderbolt from the blue and caught the PA and its terrorist allies unawares. They cannot accept that such a strike has happened for H&D reasons, yet they have to respond because 'no response' will also be an H&D issue. Gen. Raheel's high-flying career is about end with a blot and he would do everything to redeem it. The PA action has to be open in order to catch the imagination of the Pakistani people. It cannot be simply a Pakistani BAT doing some mischief.

As for ceasefire agreement violations, many mistakenly believe that they started just recently. We forget that the violations of the 2003 CFA began soon after the Modi government assumed power in 2014. There is a historical reason for that. Since January 2014, the relation between Gen. Raheel Sharif (whom Nawaz Sharif 'carefully' chose as the replacement for Kayani, superseding two others. All his 'carefully' chosen appointees deserted him as Gen Waheed Kakkar did in the 90s and later Gen. Musharraf in 1999. Both Kakkar & Musharraf also superseded a few seniors to be handpicked by Nawaz) and Nawaz Sharif had begun to deteriorate even more. The distrust between a Pakistani COAS and his PM always shows up as incidents on our borders. The harmonious relationship between the two would also have the same effect!

There were three particular incidents. One was the 'peace negotiations' that Nawaz Sharif started with the state-attacking TTP in early (January timeframe) of 2014. To be fair to Nawaaz, his election manifesto for the 2013 elections had said that the PML-N was for 'peace talks' with the TTP and so it was not surprising. This was in spite of a majority of elected PML-N parliamentarians voting for a military action. This sudden U-turn might have angered the PA. My guess is that the PA was against this as the ISI was trying to split the TTP movement after Fazlullah had taken over following Hakeemullah Mehsud's death as it saw an opportunity there, having failed militarily in defeating them since 2007. We must remember that Nawz's brother and Punjab CM, Shahbaz, had earlier asked the Punjabi Taliban not to attack Punjab because his government was in agreement with their objective after all! Even as early as c. 2010, Shahbaz had tried to negotiate with Al Qaeda & TTP as the letters found in OBL's Abbottabad compound proved. As a result, the TTP's attack in the Punjab was limited to attacking Christians, Shi'as and Ahmedis, but *NOT* the State. In the peace talks, TTP was asking for stoppage of drone attacks, release of all its jailed terrorists, the withdrawal of PA from FATA and handing over FATA to TTP for self-rule, all unacceptable to the PA though some might have been agreeable to Nawaz. Eventually, after six months, the talks failed and Zerb-e-Azb was launched. Anyway, TTP had already begun to split by the May, 2014 timeframe. An angered TTP mounted the attack on the Army Public School in Peshawar killing students & teachers forcing the PA to intensify its actions against it. The Nawaz government initiated politically the National Action Plan (NAP) for taking strong action against the 'bad Taliban', a bill that conceded even more space to the PA including judicial powers in all terrorism-related matters. Tellingly, the terrorist and terrorist-supporting groups such as Imran Khan's PTI, Jamaat-e-Islami, JUI-F abstained from voting for the NAP bill in the National Assembly as they were opposed to several provisions.

The second incident to anger the PA was the Hamid Mir assassination attempt in April 2014 when it was openly suggested that 'the Angels' were behind the attack. His brother, another noted journalist, Amir Mir directly blamed the ISI for this assassination attempt even as Hamid Mir lay critically wounded in a Karachi hospital, and this telecast on GEO TV so angered the ISI so much that it asked PEMRA to shut down the GEO TV channels. The PEMRA promptly shut down the channel for 15 days along with a fine of USD 100,000 even as GEO sued the ISI in a court of law. Hamid Mir had earlier claimed that his expose of the missing Balochistanis (abducted and killed by the ISI) had angered the ISI Chief. The ISI had another reason to be angry with him too, though Hamid Mir did not reveal that. It is largely claimed that it was his accusation of the two ISI agents Sq. Ldr Khalid Khwaja and Col. Imam of being American agents that led to their killing by the Taliban in c. 2010. In any case, Nawaz Sharif kept away from this issue and the ISI saw this as tacit encouragement for the GEO group and Hamid Mir.

Then there was the minor issue of sorting out a former COAS's predicament. Gen. Raheel hit out at Nawaz Sharif's handling of Gen. Musharraf saying that "the Army preserves its own dignity and institutional pride at all costs" while addressing SSG at Tarbela. Gen. Raheel forced Nawaz to let Musharraf go.

The third was the decision of Nawaz Sharif to attend the swearing-in ceremony of Modi in May 2014. The PA clearly disliked his attendance. The distrust among the PA generals is that Nawaz may concede space especially in trade and terrorism. It took him a while to confirm his attendance at the swearing-in ceremony, but he came. The ISI displayed its anger by attacking the Herat consulate through its LTTE & Haqqani proxies.

So, the CFA violations which started after Modi's taking over power in May 2014, assumed larger proportions by the last quarter of 2014. Here is where the duplicity of the PA came out clearly. On the one hand, it attacked India and on the other requested a message to be conveyed to GoI through US & China that since it was engaged in rooting out terrorists in the north, it wanted to have a peaceful border in the east. It wanted to paint India as an aggressor, it wanted to use the excuse of Z-e-A to harass India and send in terrorists as it was sure that the international community (whatever that means) would believe its words of India utilizing the Zerb-e-Azb situation to attack from the east especially when it had launched a major operation that the Western nations have been demanding for a long time. The CFA violations began to occur in the more peaceful IB sector. Unfortunately for PA, this Indian government had allowed a free hand for the BSF & IA to retaliate as they saw it fit and disproportionately too. Now, it has become another H&D issue for the PA. Fortunately for it, the Z-e-A has practically wound down and it can commit more soldiers here. That is what is happening.

Kashi
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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan- November 7, 2016

Postby Kashi » 07 Nov 2016 07:50

Almeida seems to echo SSridharJi's thoughts.

But being the Baki he is, he fails to be unequivocal that TSPA nuts are being squeezed.

ULTIMATELY, they’re going to have to do it. They know it, we know it and the targets do too: decommission the favourites; defang the good ones.
Get rid of militancy.

Think of it as an arc: from Musharraf to Kayani to Raheel to the next chief, a progressive clampdown against groups that had to be taken on.
With Musharraf, it was Al Qaeda — 9/11 changed the world and the world changed how we did business.

From Kayani to Raheel, a second purge — the anti-Pakistan lot. They came after us, so we had to go after them.

And soon the next chief — confronted with the spectre of a roiling Kashmir and the long-term presence of a right-winger in Delhi :D causing the last line standing to go into agitated motion.
PM Modi is causing immense taqleef to Bakis

Something will have to be done before they do us in.

One, two, three — is there an arc of inevitability to it? Each successive chief having to go incrementally further than the last, not necessarily because he wanted to, but because he had to.

Lost in the warfare of the last month was an important consensus: the civilians said something needed to be done and the boys agreed — though, tellingly, the civilians resisted other actions in Punjab.

But the path to recognising that something has to be done about the anti-India lot has begun to be trodden.

It is the logic of utility, institutional self-preservation and the mechanism of jihad: if the groups exist, they occasionally have to go into action; and when they do, the outside world has a reaction.

Once, twice, thrice — from Mumbai to Pathankot to Uri, the future is being written for us.

Uri was perhaps the least significant and so the reaction the most telling. Pathankot was really the bigger deal, but it came a week after Modi’s Christmas Day Lahore surprise.

He couldn’t react as angrily because he had just pushed open the door to normalisation. So India swallowed its rage and the world kept quiet.
Perhaps that's why they did this. They gamed that India will not retaliate.

When Uri happened, there was no such luck. India went into a rage and the world sympathised, even before the facts were known.
He admits that a resounding jhaapad was given

On India, we don’t have the advantage we have with the Afghan-centric lot. There we can always nudge them across the border — go home to where you belong, we can tell them when the time comes.

With the anti-India lot, this is home. They’re from here and this is where the fallout will be suffered.

And so this is where they’ll have to be dealt with.

The past offers some clues about what the future could look like. With Al Qaeda there was an opening wallop followed by sustained action.

The wallop came because 9/11 was momentous. It is how history will be measured, time before 9/11 and time after.

The sustained, years-long pursuit of Al Qaeda, in Fata and the cities, came because America insisted and America had the resources to make sure we listened.

But then came the Osama anomaly — what the hell was he doing here for those long years in plain sight?

The lesson: we’re like the kid who hates homework. We’ll make a show of it in the beginning and then find reason to go slow or switch off.

Phase three, the push against the anti-India lot, will be a root canal — when we get around to it, we sure won’t like it and will find plenty of reason not to until it threatens to kill us.
Baki being a baki cannot admit that the cost of rearing the anti-India jihadis has been upped for them and that is squeezing their gonads, not just the fact that they may turn inwards

From the push against the anti-Pakistan lot, a different lesson: the need to create a national narrative first, the fabled public consensus that the boys demand as the starting point.
In other words, there will be no consensus, boys will see to that, so no "national narrative" and therefore no "starting point"

The boys have already hinted at it in private: telling the civilians to get a parliamentary resolution; arguing that public opinion needs to be kept onside; cautioning against moving too fast and under a perception of Indian pressure.
the fabled ehh&dee again, even if the fauj is being bitchslapped into this, they cannot admit it for ghairat sake, so let the civvies bell the cat, pass the resolution and paint big bullseyes on their musharrafs, while the fauj pretends to act against LeT, JeM et al.

It can seem a ruse and a delaying mechanism, but the experience of getting to the point of saying no more on the anti-Pakistan lot is mirroring the talking points on the anti-India lot — the boys won’t do it until they’re sure they have the public onside.
Another way of saying that they'll never do it, after all what is public opinion in Bakistan, where majority want shariat and subscribe to Ghazwa-e-Hind

But let’s not kid ourselves — the anti-India lot are fundamentally a different challenge.

It’s not like that they’re hard to find — their power is derived from the ability to thrive in plain sight. When we do decide to go after them, the core networks can be shut down relatively quickly.

The challenge, then, is something else: separating them from the anti-India narrative.

We’ll have to find a way to shut down the anti-India lot without tampering with the story of India being Enemy No 1.

Because, as has become evident, India being Enemy No 1 is an unalterable truth, an inalienable position that the boys will never give up.

The logic of utility, institutional self-preservation and the mechanism of jihad means the boys can and will turn on the anti-India lot. What the boys will never do is give up on India being the enemy.

So how to do it? And can it happen as soon as the next chief?
Simple, formalise them as an extension of the regular army as a Lahore-Bahawalpur light infantry if you will, or a paramilitary force attached to the Diffa-e-Pakistan council

It won’t happen when India is demanding furiously — this much we can see. And it won’t happen when the civilians try to make themselves look good.

But it can if — if — someone can figure out how to get the boys to do it without making it look like it was someone else’s idea and without the boys looking bad.

One, two, three — at least the logic is in place.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan- November 7, 2016

Postby Bart S » 07 Nov 2016 09:07

Excellent speech by Hussain Haqqani at the London 'Future of Pakistan' conference:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KaYkcMRbTmE

Some good titbits.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan- November 7, 2016

Postby SSridhar » 07 Nov 2016 09:12

NIA to file chargesheet against LeT man, explain how Pakistani army majors facilitate terrorists’ infiltration - Neeraj Chauhan, ToI
Four months after the killing of Hizbul Mujahideen commander Burhan Wani and the continuing unrest in Jammu & Kashmir, the National Investigation Agency is all set to expose the role of Pakistani defence forces in orchestrating violence and spreading terrorism in Kashmir.

By the end of this month, the agency will file a chargesheet against Lashkar-e-Taiba terrorist Bahadur Ali, who was arrested a few days after Wani's killing (on July 8 ). In the chargesheet, the NIA will explain how Pakistani army majors and captains not only facilitate the infiltration of terrorists' belonging to LeT, Hizbul Mujahideen and Jaish-e-Mohammad by dropping them near the line of control and by providing them safe routes and sophisticated military gadgets but also brief them about their mission in India and check their preparedness before they are launched.

On the basis of Ali's disclosures, the NIA will reveal how the LeT leadership, including Hafiz Saeed and his son-inlaw Khalid Waleed, had established a control room - Alpha 3 - that operated with the support of Pakistani forces in Muzaffarabad (Pakistan occupied Kashmir). From the control room directions were given to terrorists who had crossed over to mix with protestors and stone pelters in the valley and throw grenades to intensify the violence.

The NIA probe revealed that arms (AK-47 rifles), ammunition and communication equipment, including ICOM RT sets (made in Japan) to cover a whole range of (VHF) frequencies, found from Ali could only be provided by the Pakistani army.


Ali, 21, was provided specific grid references for the route to be followed and was tutored in the use of GPS, compass and topographical sheets by military experts.

In his confession, Ali, a resident of Jia Bagga village in Pakistan's Punjab province, allegedly claimed that Pakistani army officers visited them (terrorists to be launched) near the LoC and briefed them on the plan to be followed.

After Ali's arrest, the NIA had released a 12-minute confession video in which the terrorist exposed Pakistani army officials and his plans. The government had handed over to Pakistan a "strong demarche" over its continued support to cross-border terrorism in India.

The chargesheet will also list the terror training camps running inside POK, infiltration routes used by terrorists in north Kashmir and the assistance provided by overground workers of these outfits to the terrorists after they enter India.

Ali earlier worked as a "jihad funds collector" for Jamaat-ud-Dawa and later for Falah-e-Insaniyat Foundation (FIF). He attended three training camps of LeT since 2013, the last one a rigorous arms training just before he was launched in May-June.

Pakistan-based terrorists have made frequent attempts to infiltrate into J&K this year, especially since violence broke out in the valley.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan- November 7, 2016

Postby Prem » 07 Nov 2016 10:10


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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan- November 7, 2016

Postby yensoy » 07 Nov 2016 13:50

SSji, great summary. 2 questions:

1. In your post it appears that Army is for anti-terrorist clean-up of Punjab but NS is unwilling. I had thought it was the exact opposite - NS wants terrorists to be cleaned up but Army is unwilling to lose their strategic depth. What does NS gain from jihadis in Punjab? Doesn't the law and order situation get in the way of his business interests? Won't he get more votes as a tough guy cleaning up the state and improving the security situation a-la-Duterte?

2. You mention Imran Khan's PTI as a terrorist sympathizer. Word on the street is that IK is a benami of the military, to be used to tighten the screw on NS. So which is it - terrorist or army prop - primarily, and how do you conclude that?

(repeating from last thread that got locked)

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan- November 7, 2016

Postby yensoy » 07 Nov 2016 14:05

Kashi wrote:Almeida seems to echo SSridharJi's thoughts.


The logic of utility, institutional self-preservation and the mechanism of jihad means the boys can and will turn on the anti-India lot. What the boys will never do is give up on India being the enemy.

So how to do it? And can it happen as soon as the next chief?
Simple, formalise them as an extension of the regular army as a Lahore-Bahawalpur light infantry if you will, or a paramilitary force attached to the Diffa-e-Pakistan council


That is exactly what I proposed in a reply which obviously didn't get published.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan- November 7, 2016

Postby sum » 07 Nov 2016 14:17

^^ Any idea whats the back story on the TSP Major getting hallaled in his own house ( link was in the previous incarnate of this dhaaga)?

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan- November 7, 2016

Postby SSridhar » 07 Nov 2016 15:10

yensoy wrote:1. In your post it appears that Army is for anti-terrorist clean-up of Punjab but NS is unwilling. I had thought it was the exact opposite - NS wants terrorists to be cleaned up but Army is unwilling to lose their strategic depth. What does NS gain from jihadis in Punjab? Doesn't the law and order situation get in the way of his business interests? Won't he get more votes as a tough guy cleaning up the state and improving the security situation a-la-Duterte?

yensoy, we must remember that *ALL* political parties in Pakistan have association with various terror tanzeems. For example, PPP had supported the 'mother of all jihadi tanzeems', SSP (now morphed into ASWJ). The PML-N today has a political alliance with ASWJ. The Punjabi Taliban, for example, attacked the State after joining with TTP and thus became 'bad Taliban' in the books of Musharraf and his PA. The most dreaded sectarian terrorist tanzeem, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, for example, has a close association with Shahbaz Sharif. Shahbaz even offered tickets for LeJ in the elections. However, the same Shahbaz eliminated the Emir of LeJ, Ishaque Malik, and his sons, along with another founder member of LeJ, Ghulam Rasool Shah, when he violated the 'terms of agreement' as that would have caused serious law & order situation in the Punjab. In c. 2009, during the Lal masjid seize in Islamabad, Malik Ishaque was secretly taken out of the jail by the Army to negotiate with the Ghazi brothers, but the negotiation failed. LeJ is also given a free hand in Balochistan by the Army. So, the PA & Shahbaz collaborate at times and may differ at other times. Their larger objective of destruction of India is a point for collaboration. But, where they differ is that Shahbaz is a politician and has to win elections and for that he needs maintenance of law & order and development of his state. He also needs to make money in the process. The PA has no election pressure and they make money in their own way too. Another case is Tablighi Jama'at, which conducts an annual congregation (ijtima) at Raiwind near Nawaz Sharif's home. Nawaz, Shahbaz and their families regularly attend the congregation. Nawaz even made an important Tablighi member Rafique Tarar as the President of Pakistan when he was the PM. But, Tablighi-Jama'at is now banned from preaching in schools and colleges in the Punjab because Shahbaz sees many problems because of their aggression.

In a nutshell, the complex web of terror tanzeems and their myriad connections with power centres operate in different ways. Sometimes, we cannot even understand why. But, Shahbaz cannot clean up the 'good terrorists' because they are needed for many things: attacking India (primary), keeping Shi'as in check, killing Ahmedis, Christians, Hindus, Sikhs etc. Ultimately, every Sunni in Pakistan believes in all these things and so the jihadis thrive easily. Why do you believe that the aam Abduls in Pakistan want a clean-up? The editorials & op-eds in English language media shouldn't be believed. Shahbaz is certainly no Duterte. Their National Action Plan, passed as a law in the National Assembly, which demands that action be taken against all terror organizations is a farce.

2. You mention Imran Khan's PTI as a terrorist sympathizer. Word on the street is that IK is a benami of the military, to be used to tighten the screw on NS. So which is it - terrorist or army prop - primarily, and how do you conclude that?

The PA is a terrorist army. So, where is the issue? What is the confusion here? Being a terrorist and an army prop at the same time are mutually inclusive in Pakistan. Once again, Imran Khan is a politician propped up by the PA. His trajectory will be the same as the other two familiar ones, Nawaz Sharif & Altaf Bhai. The latter two were blue-eyed boys of the PA once upon a time. Look at where they are today.

Hope it helps.


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Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan- November 7, 2016

Postby Peregrine » 07 Nov 2016 18:37

Full Article X Posted on the Analyzing CPEC Thread
The fine print on the CPEC portfolio
Cheers Image

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Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan- November 7, 2016

Postby Peregrine » 07 Nov 2016 18:44

The mystery of ‘100 missing’ Gadani workers
KARACHI: Nearly 250 workers were onboard the decommissioned Japanese oil tanker, MT Aces, when a blast sparked off a massive blaze and a series of explosions on the 24,000-ton vessel at Gadani shipbreaking yard on Tuesday.

Twenty-six of them died – some on the spot and others at hospitals – and another 50-plus workers sustained burn injuries. Some were rescued, while around 100 were trapped inside the ship as firefighters struggled for next three days to put out the toxic blaze, according to witnesses and survivors.

So, where are the 100 workers who were believed to be trapped on the burning ship? Nobody knows. “Rescuers searched the ship after the fire was doused but found no bodies or even traces,” said Bashir Mehmoodani, who has been campaigning for the rights of shipbreaking workers for nearly a decade.
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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan- November 7, 2016

Postby yensoy » 07 Nov 2016 20:31

SSridhar wrote:So, the PA & Shahbaz collaborate at times and may differ at other times. Their larger objective of destruction of India is a point for collaboration.

But, Shahbaz cannot clean up the 'good terrorists' because they are needed for many things: attacking India (primary), keeping Shi'as in check, killing Ahmedis, Christians, Hindus, Sikhs etc. Ultimately, every Sunni in Pakistan believes in all these things and so the jihadis thrive easily. Why do you believe that the aam Abduls in Pakistan want a clean-up?

Hope it helps.


Thanks sir, a lot of what you said makes sense, and thank you for the clear response. It would be even better if there was an infographic :D or a kids flap book where on the front is the party name and on the rear the terrorist outfit it rears.

Just one basic point is something I can't quite agree. Pak army is all for destruction of India, accepted. A good percentage of the Pak populace too, in one way or the other, wish for the same, accepted. I don't see the Sharifs having any special propensity above that of the average Abdul. These guys are businessmen, first and foremost, and their aim is to make money. The PM/Governor position essentially lets them print money. While allying with or assembling in-house militias can be a useful tactic to assert power locally, I can't quite wrap my head around why they would want to disturb the detente with India. Now the militias may have a mind of their own and try some Jihadi adventurism, but what's in it for their sponsors, the Sharifs? You can call businessmen whatever you want, but the one thing they are above anyone else is rational. A war or quasi-war with India will lead to upheaval, and from the pretty position they are sitting in that's the last thing they would want.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan- November 7, 2016

Postby habal » 07 Nov 2016 21:28

yensoy wrote:SSji, great summary. 2 questions:

1. In your post it appears that Army is for anti-terrorist clean-up of Punjab but NS is unwilling. I had thought it was the exact opposite - NS wants terrorists to be cleaned up but Army is unwilling to lose their strategic depth. What does NS gain from jihadis in Punjab?


massive numbers in Punjab, this bunch can easily overwhelm the state if not handled carefully. There is also a cleavage with his support base. If he betrays them then his home state will be turmoil.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan- November 7, 2016

Postby shiv » 07 Nov 2016 21:41

yensoy wrote: I don't see the Sharifs having any special propensity above that of the average Abdul. These guys are businessmen, first and foremost, and their aim is to make money. The PM/Governor position essentially lets them print money. While allying with or assembling in-house militias can be a useful tactic to assert power locally, I can't quite wrap my head around why they would want to disturb the detente with India. Now the militias may have a mind of their own and try some Jihadi adventurism, but what's in it for their sponsors, the Sharifs? You can call businessmen whatever you want, but the one thing they are above anyone else is rational. A war or quasi-war with India will lead to upheaval, and from the pretty position they are sitting in that's the last thing they would want.


Look at it this way - and all indicators that I have been reading point to this. They have lost control. neither the Sharifs nor the Army can control the multiple jihadi groups which they have encouraged, who are armed, dangerous and have inflitrated into the lower ranks of soldiers and security guards, cooks, drivers etc. Any attempt to control them or speaking of detente with India (or any similar act that is deemed to be anti-Islam) will get them killed. Many political leaders and army jernails are now scared unless they are themselves totally jihadized.

Pakistan is heading towards the purest of pure Islam. This is easier for communal Indians like me and many level headed Indian Muslims to see clearly. The last people to recognize this are on the other side of the world - in America where they think it does not matter that much.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan- November 7, 2016

Postby AjayKK » 07 Nov 2016 22:39

Then, in the wake of the Army Public School carnage, the Army acquired judicial powers in terrorism cases without any oversight from even the Supreme Court.


Nine formerly-good-Pakis get one way ticket to jannat from COAS for being bad-Pakis.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan- November 7, 2016

Postby VKumar » 07 Nov 2016 22:48

On Twitter. Dawood Ibrahim eliminated. Same source had stated a few days ago Hafeez Saeed eliminated. No corroboration available. TIFWIS.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan- November 7, 2016

Postby Ankar » 08 Nov 2016 00:09

VKumar wrote:On Twitter. Dawood Ibrahim eliminated. Same source had stated a few days ago Hafeez Saeed eliminated. No corroboration available. TIFWIS.

Hafiz Saeed threatens India with 'surgical strike' in Kashmir :((. can you please tell me the Id of twitter user you referenced from ...?

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan- November 7, 2016

Postby anupmisra » 08 Nov 2016 00:52

Peregrine wrote:Full Article X Posted on the Analyzing CPEC Thread
The fine print on the CPEC portfolio
Cheers Image


With a depth of only 14.5 metres, Gwadar can’t become a trans-shipment hub for transit trade from Central Asian states. Moreover, oil shipments from Gwadar to China via trains aren’t economically viable as it costs 800% higher than direct shipments to Chinese ports.


Only 14.5 meters deep? Did not the bakis claim that the port is the deepest natural port in the world?

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan- November 7, 2016

Postby Prem » 08 Nov 2016 01:11

anupmisra wrote:
Peregrine wrote:
Only 14.5 meters deep? Did not the bakis claim that the port is the deepest natural port in the world?

Wiki says
Depth is 12.5 Meter and will be dredged to 14.5 meet depth and then
Dredging of approach channel to depth of 20 meters

Chabahar depth is 11 meter.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan- November 7, 2016

Postby Rajagopal » 08 Nov 2016 02:15

Heard this saying on the internet.

India has many Friends.
China has many Concubines.
But, Pakistan has only one Master. :mrgreen:

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan- November 7, 2016

Postby ramana » 08 Nov 2016 02:36

Kashi, Thanks' for opening this thread...

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Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan- November 7, 2016

Postby Peregrine » 08 Nov 2016 03:17

Peregrine wrote:Full Article X Posted on the Analyzing CPEC Thread
The fine print on the CPEC portfolio
Cheers Image
anupmisra wrote:
With a depth of only 14.5 metres, Gwadar can’t become a trans-shipment hub for transit trade from Central Asian states. Moreover, oil shipments from Gwadar to China via trains aren’t economically viable as it costs 800% higher than direct shipments to Chinese ports.

Only 14.5 meters deep? Did not the bakis claim that the port is the deepest natural port in the world?
anupmisra Ji :

Currently the latest Mærsk 3E Class has a Capacity of 18,000 TEUS with an immersion of 14.5 Metres. With a 10% Margin for safety this class will need a depth of 16 Metres.

For its own requirement Cwapistan does not need Gwadar as Karachi and Port Qasim can cater to Cwapistan’s requirements until 2025. As such Gwadar is only an “outlet” for the Chinese should they require to move a huge force to Persian Gulf or Red Sea or to East – South Africa. In addition, I feel sure, the Chinese will have a Major Air and Naval Base in Gwadar.

In any case Gwadar cannot envisage an 18,000 TEU Carrying vessel as Cwapistan + Afghanistan + Central Asian Republics do not have a Trading Capacity to receive 18,000 TEUs at one time.

Methinks the CPEC will be used by the Chinese to control Cwapistan so as to ensure that Xinjiang Uyghur Freedom movement does not get any help from the Terrorists based in and supported by Cwapistan.

I have read about 20 Metres Depth in Gwadar, buy, pray when do you think Gwadar will get 20 Metre Deep Vessels? After all the Articles Gwadar and Why Gwadar? states that this port is not for Trade but possibly for Strategic Reasons.
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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan- November 7, 2016

Postby sudeepj » 08 Nov 2016 04:23

In the medium term, Gwadar can be a flash point between India and China the way Cuban missile crisis was. If Gwadar transitions into a Chinese base, Indian and Chinese leaderships could play the same brinkmanship game the US and the Russians played. It could even be used for another round of testing.

*Talking about 5 day india-Pak test matches only. :-)

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan- November 7, 2016

Postby Kashi » 08 Nov 2016 06:11

ramana wrote:Kashi, Thanks' for opening this thread...


Thanks raman ji, some of the links in the opening post are no longer functional. We probably need to reorganise it a bit.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan- November 7, 2016

Postby shiv » 08 Nov 2016 07:58

anupmisra wrote:Only 14.5 meters deep? Did not the bakis claim that the port is the deepest natural port in the world?
They were referring to their backsides with or without Vaseline

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan- November 7, 2016

Postby partha » 08 Nov 2016 09:08

http://swarajyamag.com/magazine/would-a-fragmented-pakistan-be-good-for-the-region-not-necessarily
Would A Fragmented Pakistan Be Good For The Region? Not Necessarily

Nitin Gokhale


Nitin Gokhale argues that a "united Pakistan" but a "weakened" one, is in India's interests at least till 2025. I am quoting only the relevant parts here:

Although Blackwill’s proposal was roundly criticised, the fact remains that the government of Afghanistan has never accepted the Durand Line, the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan, and on the ground, its applicability is followed only in its breach. The Pakistan Army will be hard put to ensure its writ in the region with 15 per cent of its army being drawn from the area.

But to come back to the question whether Pakistan is ready to implode. With China, its all-weather friend, pumping in humungous amounts of money for its dream project—the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Beijing will do its best to ensure that Pakistan stays united. The Americans too cannot afford a disintegrated Pakistan, given the stakes it has in the region. These two big players in the international arena will ensure Pakistan does not implode for the foreseeable future.

For India too, a weakened but united Pakistan is a safer bet than a fragmented Pakistan, simply because India’s main focus is on economic progress and it cannot afford to have hordes of radicalised terrorists descending on its borders in case Pakistan implodes.

Today, a united Pakistan, tenuously held together by the only glue that binds—the Pakistani Army—will ensure that the terrorists keep fighting the Pakistani state rather than India. For a decade or so, this scenario suits India. By 2025, an India that is economically much much stronger than Pakistan, an India that is much more secure because of its economic heft, will perhaps be ready to face the fallout of an imploding Pakistan. Till then, the current policy of highlighting Pakistan’s atrocities in Balochistan, isolating the country diplomatically and keeping it off balance by a mix of calibrated military actions (like the surgical strikes) and other measures like revisiting the Indus Water Treaty, would be sufficient to meet the Pakistan challenge.



Nitin Gokhale can be considered as one of the Modi Govt's well wisher and most importantly an insider. Even if not an insider, he definitely has sources in the Govt. So the question then is - is this the Govt's view as well? Surgical strike has definitely taken the pressure off of Modi Govt so I will not be surprised if Govt would want to focus on the economy for the next 10 years to further widen the development gap with Pakistan.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan- November 7, 2016

Postby Gagan » 08 Nov 2016 09:20

Gawadar is prolly China's base in the middle east.
Cheen wants to project force into the persian gulf, they want to be everywhere the US is, to offer a counter force, a power and protection provider. The roosis have been a failure at this because of their economic woes.
That's all there is to it

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan- November 7, 2016

Postby Rishi Verma » 08 Nov 2016 10:06

If Nitin Gokhale is promoting this as a BJP gov concept that a united porkistan is better than a fragmented porkistan, it could very well be that gov is planning the opposite. So TIFWIW

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan- November 7, 2016

Postby yensoy » 08 Nov 2016 11:43

shiv wrote:Look at it this way - and all indicators that I have been reading point to this. They have lost control. neither the Sharifs nor the Army can control the multiple jihadi groups which they have encouraged, who are armed, dangerous and have inflitrated into the lower ranks of soldiers and security guards, cooks, drivers etc. Any attempt to control them or speaking of detente with India (or any similar act that is deemed to be anti-Islam) will get them killed. Many political leaders and army jernails are now scared unless they are themselves totally jihadized.

Pakistan is heading towards the purest of pure Islam. This is easier for communal Indians like me and many level headed Indian Muslims to see clearly. The last people to recognize this are on the other side of the world - in America where they think it does not matter that much.


Good summary. But Sharifs aren't entirely powerless in this regard, and certainly the Army isn't. There is some money transfusion that keeps Jihadis at it (diehard Jihadis might kill for allah's sake, but the larger bunch of folks are in it for some immediate monetary benefit - e.g. Kasab). Control can be wielded by turning the tap on and off (while saying "death to america" with a straight face).

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan- November 7, 2016

Postby yensoy » 08 Nov 2016 11:47

Gagan wrote:Gawadar is prolly China's base in the middle east.
Cheen wants to project force into the persian gulf, they want to be everywhere the US is, to offer a counter force, a power and protection provider. The roosis have been a failure at this because of their economic woes.
That's all there is to it


Big difference between US middle eastern bases and Chinese base is overland access from mainland China to Gwadar. This is what makes doubly important for us to restate our claims on PoK at every available opportunity, and signal via surgical strikes or otherwise that we will not hesitate to walk into PoK if our interests are threatened.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan- November 7, 2016

Postby SSridhar » 08 Nov 2016 14:10

yensoy wrote:I don't see the Sharifs having any special propensity above that of the average Abdul. These guys are businessmen, first and foremost, and their aim is to make money. The PM/Governor position essentially lets them print money. While allying with or assembling in-house militias can be a useful tactic to assert power locally, I can't quite wrap my head around why they would want to disturb the detente with India. Now the militias may have a mind of their own and try some Jihadi adventurism, but what's in it for their sponsors, the Sharifs? You can call businessmen whatever you want, but the one thing they are above anyone else is rational. A war or quasi-war with India will lead to upheaval, and from the pretty position they are sitting in that's the last thing they would want.


yensoy, yes, you are right about the Shariff family, who are Kashmiris who migrated from India during Partition, are indeed hardcore businessmen. But, they are not disturbing any 'detente' with India. There was never any detente except for a brief period after 1971 or after 2003. Wars, skirmishes, shelling the border areas, tension & more importantly terrorism are the normal Pakistani narrative vis-a-vis India. Since 1947, Pakistan has been engaged in non-stop jihad with India. These are acts that Nawaz, as a politician, or his PML-N party has always supported.

Let us look at Nawz's business empire. Pakistan followed Indian economic liberalization in the 90s especially during the second term of NS. Public enterprises were sold off and NS's Ittefaq Group benefitted by buying them cheaply. As the family earned wealth, the two brothers invested them mostly abroad in Dubai, KSA and Europe (especially London, a city close to Nawaz's heart) in real estate and a few industries. The London real estate & bank account fraud charges against Nawaz have been swirling since his second term as PM. The Panama Papers speak of other investments too, but all abroad. They may hold vast tracts of lands in Pakistan like all other big families and even some industries but all their monies are safely abroad. No Pakistani with some means keeps his/her money within Pakistan. The Shariffs do run some institutions and a hospital etc. But, will any of these get affected by a worsening situation with India? My guess is that the Shariffs make a lot more from investments abroad than from within Pakistan.

Yes, businessmen & women would not like to upset a normal situation, like how Narayana Murthy & his fellow businessmen intervened after 26/11. Do you think any Pakistani can do that had the situation been the reverse?

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan- November 7, 2016

Postby shiv » 08 Nov 2016 14:45

yensoy wrote:Good summary. But Sharifs aren't entirely powerless in this regard, and certainly the Army isn't. There is some money transfusion that keeps Jihadis at it (diehard Jihadis might kill for allah's sake,

This is not what Khaled Ahmad says in his new book that I am currently reading published August 2016

Sleepwalking to surrender

Every entity in Pakistan, i.e the army and the politicians have their own "tanzeems" who are kept well armed from the freely available arms market. The Army cannot crush the Sharif tanzeems and the Sharif/other tanzeems cannot crush the army, Complicating all this is that these tanzeems also have a mind (and funding) of their own

Part of our problem is that our minds and moulded by the media (necessarily in English) that recognize only two power brokers in Pakistan - the politicos and the army. But power is much more "distributed" than that. Any attempt to crush some tanzeem or other leads to some blowback. The Tanzeems are not being fed by Sharif money or army money. They are funded by Islamic charities, extortion and drugs. Hafiz Saeed's Jamaat ud Dawa is heavily funded by Islamic charities from the animal skin trade

It is only our imagination that makes us think that there are just 2 power centers funding jihadis who are beholden to them. That is too simplified a picture and is no longer true even if it was true 20 years ago. Too much water had flowed down the Indus since then

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan- November 7, 2016

Postby svenkat » 08 Nov 2016 19:06

Not directly relevant,but not irrelevant either.

http://www.dawn.com/news/1289068/i-am-a-pakistani-american-and-trumps-rise-threatens-me

Jernails may not find it easy to retire in US after dynamiting baloch,pashtun towns,villages.RAPE/Rapettes too may not get easy visas for their vacations.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan- November 7, 2016

Postby shiv » 08 Nov 2016 19:32

shiv wrote:
yensoy wrote:Good summary. But Sharifs aren't entirely powerless in this regard, and certainly the Army isn't. There is some money transfusion that keeps Jihadis at it (diehard Jihadis might kill for allah's sake,

This is not what Khaled Ahmad says in his new book that I am currently reading published August 2016

Sleepwalking to surrender

Every entity in Pakistan, i.e the army and the politicians have their own "tanzeems" who are kept well armed from the freely available arms market. The Army cannot crush the Sharif tanzeems and the Sharif/other tanzeems cannot crush the army, Complicating all this is that these tanzeems also have a mind (and funding) of their own

Part of our problem is that our minds and moulded by the media (necessarily in English) that recognize only two power brokers in Pakistan - the politicos and the army. But power is much more "distributed" than that. Any attempt to crush some tanzeem or other leads to some blowback. The Tanzeems are not being fed by Sharif money or army money. They are funded by Islamic charities, extortion and drugs. Hafiz Saeed's Jamaat ud Dawa is heavily funded by Islamic charities from the animal skin trade

It is only our imagination that makes us think that there are just 2 power centers funding jihadis who are beholden to them. That is too simplified a picture and is no longer true even if it was true 20 years ago. Too much water had flowed down the Indus since then


Two related quotes from Khaled Ahmed's book
There are two kinds of ‘big leaders’ in the religious community: those who accumulate wealth on the basis of intimidation through jihad and foreign funding, and those who do it with organizational skill and contact with the masses. The jihad-related leaders are all more or less well-heeled. Money—and mobilization among trained youths—are the tools they employ to pressure the patron state. One among them, Hafiz Saeed, is more ‘resourceful’, able to spend billions during a natural calamity as a means of projection of power. Because of jihad, he has a $10 million US bounty riding on his head. His wealth stems from the hides of sacrificial animals, and partly from expat Pakistanis living on social security in the EU and in the US. He not only threatens Pakistan with the dare of jihad; he can fling cross-border threats too." (from "Sleepwalking to Surrender: Dealing with Terrorism in Pakistan" by Khaled Ahmed)


Pakistan is still on the brink of becoming a failed state as a consequence of its decades-old practice of using proxy warriors in the region. Because of the weakening of the writ of the state, neither governance nor the economy can function normally; in fact, some say the two strong entities in today’s Pakistan are the Taliban and the army.

Non-state actors, and the extremist terror outfits they control, pursue extortion, kidnapping and murder to fund their activities, and receive ideological, financial and logistical support from the deep state. The army continues to use them in its India-centric agenda. Civilian institutions are intimidated and individuals who speak out against the terror outfits become targets of their retribution. Violence, not law, increasingly commands human conduct, and the state’s willingness to enter into ‘peace talks’ with the Taliban is viewed as a form of surrender to extremism

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan- November 7, 2016

Postby yensoy » 08 Nov 2016 22:21

I need some time to come around to this thinking. Will postulate it in my head and mull over it - I must admit this frame of reference is not intuitive to me. Thanks Shiv & Sridhar.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan- November 7, 2016

Postby Prem » 08 Nov 2016 23:12

http://www.dawn.com/news/1294999/kashmi ... aging-cpec
‘Kashmiri politician tasked with sabotaging CPEC’

SLAMABAD: Saying Indian spy agency Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) has tasked a UK-based Kashmiri politician to ‘sabotage’ the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project, the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) recommended to the National Database and Registration Authority (Nadra) to block his national identity card.The revelation was made during the hearing of a petition in Islamabad High Court (IHC), seeking the renewal of the National Identity Card for Overseas Pakistanis (Nicop) to Dr Shabbir Choudhry, a British national of Pakistani/Kashmiri origin.[/b]
In the petition, Mr Choudhry’s counsel Nisar Shah said his client, a Kashmiri politician, human rights activist and author of many books, was “not provided with Nicop due to his political work and writings which expose Pakistan’s Kashmir policy.”ISI’s letter submitted to the court by the Nadra counsel stated that Mr Choudhry “is involved in anti-Pakistan activities sponsored by RAW.”Intelligence agency recommended Nadra block UK-based Dr Shabbir Choudhry’s Nicop for his anti-Pakistan activities, allegedly sponsored by RAWTo support the allegation, the spy agency said, “Dr Choudhry authored 27 books/booklets on various aspects of Kashmir, most of which are sponsored by RAW. Recently, two of his books: ‘Why Arif Shahid was killed’ and Extremism, Terrorism and Threat to Peace in South Asia’ containing propaganda against ISI/Pakistan Army have been recovered and confiscated in AJK.”The letter added: “He has been tasked by RAW for regular visits to Pakistan to expand his anti-Pakistan network and disseminate subversive material. He has established an organisation with the name of “Friends of Kashmir.”It said RAW officials had tasked Mr Choudhry to increase his efforts for activating the people of Gilgit-Baltistan to rise against CPEC portraying it as damaging for the local population.Mr Shah asserted that the basic fundamental rights of the petitioner were being violated and abrogated by the respondent, adding the petitioner was entitled to be issued the NICOP.In October, Nadra through its counsel Junaid Jafar had replied that Mr Choudhry did not come to the court with clean hands and his NICOP was blocked because “the petitioner has been reported by ISI to be involved in anti-state and subversive activities.”Being a citizen of Pakistan, the petitioner did not fulfil the basic obligation to be loyal to the state under Article 5 of the Constitution, the reply read, adding for this reason he was not entitled to claim the renewal of NICOP.Besides, Nadra said, the petition was not maintainable and liable to be dismissed as the documents pertaining to the appointment of his lawful attorney were not verified by Pakistan’s foreign mission in UK as well as the Foreign Office.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan- November 7, 2016

Postby Prem » 08 Nov 2016 23:16

http://tribune.com.pk/story/1223961/pak ... er-treaty/
Pakistan warns India against breach of water treaty

ISLAMABAD: Islamabad has warned New Delhi that Pakistan will respond with full force if India shows open aggression by breaching the World Bank-sponsored Indus Waters Treaty (IWT).“India will be responded [to] if it shows aggression by unilaterally breaking the treaty,” Water and Power Secretary Younis Dagha told the Senate Standing Committee on Water and Power on Monday.India seeks to use more water from Indus basin, but within Indus Waters Treaty termsThe committee had met to reconsider the report regarding an adjournment motion moved in the upper house of parliament by Senator Sherry Rehman on September 27. Rehman had moved the motion in the backdrop of Indian threats to unilaterally revoke the IWT.Talking with reference to the Indian threats, Dagha told the panel that there are some more conventions in place in addition to the IWT to safeguard Pakistan’s water rights.“If India shows aggression then there are some other options,” he added. “India cannot stop more water from Neelum River. It can stop water only temporarily for using it.”Rehman expressed concerns over violation of the IWT and said Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had threatened to end the treaty unilaterally.“According to a report of the Water and Power Development Authority (Wapda), India has no authority to break the IWT unilaterally,” she said, adding that India has taken advantage due to past mistakes of different governments in Pakistan.Rehman lamented that India built several dams on various rivers but Pakistan could do nothing to stop it. “India has built Kishanganga dam and Baglihar dam. Our Mangla dam will be adversely affected due to more dams being built by India,” she said.She said the IWT should be reviewed with mutual consultations, adding that India is blocking Pakistan’s water and government should think over the solutions.

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Re: Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan- November 7, 2016

Postby Atmavik » 08 Nov 2016 23:28

Prem wrote:http://www.dawn.com/news/1294999/kashmiri-politician-tasked-with-sabotaging-cpec
‘Kashmiri politician tasked with sabotaging CPEC’




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