Indo-China and the Indo-China Sea

[Philip]

We need a spl td for this region which has become the hottest zone in the Asia-Pacific waiting to explode.China<Vietnam the Philippines,Taiwan and other affected ASEAN nations,all claim a stake in the region's resources and island territories.With Trump questioning the "One China policy" boldly before he sits in the White House,the Chinese are upping the ante with even more aggressive mil action.

Trump's man for the job of Sec. of State is the Exxon-Mobil chief,the equiv of president of any major power.The speed with which OPEC arrived at an historic agreement after decades,to cut oil production was partly due to jt. US-Ru nudging.The Trump-Putin equation is having an effect already.Oil prices rose by 6%.Tension with China will make them further rise.Time then for US shale oil to get "fracking",pardon the pun! Watch this ICS space.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 68021.html

China flies nuclear bomber over South China Sea to 'send message' to Donald Trump
US officials say flight is in response to President-elect’s phone call with Taiwan's leader

Jon Sharman
Donald Trump’s direct contact with Taiwan’s leader broke with decades of diplomatic practice Wikimedia
China has flown a nuclear-capable bomber outside its borders in a show of force for the first time since US President-elect Donald Trump’s phone call with the president of Taiwan.

The 10-minute telephone call with President Tsai Ing-wen was the first by a US president-elect or president since President Jimmy Carter switched diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China in 1979, acknowledging Taiwan as part of ‘One China’. It led to protests from Beijing.

The Xian H-6 bomber flew along the disputed 'nine-dash line' around the South China Sea on Thursday, US officials told Fox News, passing over a number of disputed islands. The officials said it was designed to send a message to the incoming administration.

READ MORE
Trump picks Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson for Secretary of State: report
The Pentagon found out about the flight on Friday and officials said it was the first long-range flight along the demarcation line in more than 18 months – though this sortie extended further than previous ones.

The H-6 is the Chinese version of the Russian Tupolev Tu-16 jet bomber and has been used by China to drop nuclear devices in tests.

Mr Trump has used Twitter to criticise Beijing's policies, including the build-up of “a massive military complex in the middle of the South China Sea”.

Donald Trump breaks US policy stance with Taiwan call
Fox reported that Admiral Harry Harris, the head of US Pacific Command, had warned repeatedly about Chinese military build-up in the area over the last year. Satellites have shown China preparing to ship advanced surface-to-air missiles to contested islands, it said.

READ MORE
The next world war will be in the South China Sea. Ask Thucydides...
The US first adopted the “One China” policy in 1972 after meetings between Richard Nixon and Chairman Mao Tse-tung, and it was later solidified by President Jimmy Carter.

Under the policy, the US retains unofficial ties to Taiwan while recognising Beijing as representing China. China considers Taiwan a renegade country.

White House officials said they spoke with the Chinese leadership following Mr Trump’s call with President Tsai.
Federal officials called to reassure the country that the US still adheres to “One China”, which does not recognise Taiwan as its own sovereign nation.

PS:Chinese Tu-16 strat bombers ...and they have dozens of them,is one reason why the IAF have to acquire our won strat. bombers for the long range strat role. It is an absolute mystery to one,and many analysts have pointed this out too,why the IAF have never wanted to cquire TU-22 backfires when offered. If they're unwilling,then the capability should be handed over to the IN.There was such a proposal some time ago,shelved for whatever reason,but it should be re-examined in the light of Chinese actions.Imagine Chinese start bombers using the airbase at Gwadar too!
And let's not forget that the US has based B-52s and B-1s at DG for around 2 decades.It is astonishing that despite such a capability existing in the IOR and ICS by the US and China,the IAF like the proverbial ostrich has its head in the sand.

[Philip]

China state media warn Donald Trump: 'Pride goes before a fall'
Latest scathing Global Times editorial comes as experts say Beijing would be looking for president-elect’s ‘pressure points’ before inauguration
A magazine in a Beijing bookshop features US president-elect Donald Trump on its cover, along with the headline: ‘How will businessman Trump change the world.’
Tom Phillips in Beijing
Tuesday 13 December 2016 03.10 GMT

A Communist party-controlled newspaper has launched a searing attack on Donald Trump after the reality show host threatened an extreme makeover of his country’s policies towards China, warning the US president-elect: “Pride goes before a fall.”

The Global Times, a notoriously rambunctious state-run tabloid, was writing after Trump reignited a simmering row with Beijing by suggesting he might recognise Taiwan, which China regards as a breakaway province, unless Beijing agreed a new “deal” with his administration.

Analysis Donald Trump attempting to play Nixon's 'China card' in reverse
President-elect’s willingness to antagonise Beijing over trade and Taiwan indicates a shredding of 45 years of US-China relations
Trump’s move came less than a fortnight after the billionaire infuriated Beijing by holding a 10-minute telephone conversation with Taiwan’s first female president, Tsai Ing-wen.

In a tough-talking editorial published on Tuesday the newspaper, which sometimes reflects official views, claimed the “calculating businessman” might feel he had pulled off a shrewd manoeuvre by “seizing China’s fate by the throat”.

“However, the truth is this inexperienced president-elect probably has no knowledge of what he’s talking about. He has overestimated the US’ capability of dominating the world and fails to understand the limitation of US powers in the current era,” it warned, calling on the Chinese government to respond with “surprise moves”.

Trump’s comments revealed he “despises China strategically”, the newspaper added, warning: “Pride goes before a fall. Even before entering the White House, he has already put his cards over blackmailing China on the table … What reason do we have to accept a most unfair and humiliating deal from Trump?”

China 'seriously concerned' after Trump questions Taiwan policy

Speaking to the same newspaper, a Chinese scholar sought to hammer home the point. “[Trump’s] remarks have not only jeopardised world peace, but also upset the Beijing-Washington relationship ... he will pay for his mistakes,” warned Niu Xinchun from the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations.

Jessica Chen Weiss, an expert in Chinese foreign policy and politics from Cornell University, said the increasingly tough language coming out of Beijing was part of a campaign to “educate” Trump and his team before his inauguration on 20 January.

If the president-elect refused to change tack, behind-the-scenes countermeasures might be rolled out to ensure the Republican understood the dangers of challenging China.

Weiss said Beijing would now be looking for “pressure points that Trump might be responsive to”, particularly on the economic front. “You can imagine China making its harder for American businesses in China to operate; nothing official, but certain actions that might serve as a warning to the US business community that this isn’t going to end well if Trump continues,” she said.

“I don’t think we are seeing that yet – I think it is likely to wait. It may well wait until Trump takes specific actions. It’s one thing to question a policy or talk about revising it and it is another to take actions that indicate greater recognition for Taiwan as a sovereign state,” Weiss added.

Experts say Beijing has an array of weapons in its armoury with which it could respond to what it considers Trump’s “provocations”.

They include weakening China’s currency, the renminbi, in order to hurt US exporters, or seeking warming ties with North Korea and pumping economic aid into Pyongyang.

There are fears in Taiwan, an independently and democratically ruled island to which Beijing lays claim, that it could face severe economic or political retaliation from China before the US is targeted.

Possible measures against Taiwan include a diplomatic offensive which would see Beijing seek to seduce Taipei’s already meagre stock of 22 allies which include Haiti, Paraguay and São Tomé and Príncipe, one of Africa’s smallest nations.

Weiss said it remained unclear whether Trump would carry his “wild talk” on China into the White House. But the tycoon’s arrival in power had raised the prospect of a dramatic and potentially catastrophic falling-out between the world’s two largest economies.

“It could be a rupture in the US-China relationship that we haven’t seen yet,” she said. “I’m not at all optimistic”.

[Philip]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12 ... iwan-call/

Donald Trump's team branded 'pigs' in China after Taiwan call
Donald Trump and Tsai-Ing-wen

Neil Connor, beijing
7 DECEMBER 2016 • 7:04AM
Donald Trump’s team have been branded “pigs” by a newspaper with close links to China’s ruling Communist Party, the latest salvo in a row over the president-elect's protocol-defying phonecall with Taiwan’s leader.

The Global Times warned Mr Trump he could be led into a situation where it would be “too late for regrets” if he follows hawkish advisors who encourage him to confront China.

The angry editorial was in response to remarks by Stephen Moore, an economic advisor, who said if Beijing objected to Mr Trump’s call with Tsai Ing-wen, then “screw ‘em”.

China is deeply suspicious of Ms Tsai, Taiwan’s president, who it believes is seeking formal independence for the island.

It is hoped that President Trump won’t be tricked by a 'pig team member'
The Global Times
Beijing views Taiwan as a breakaway province which will ultimately be reunited with the mainland.

The US switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979, and has unofficial ties with the island. No US leader has spoken to its leaders for decades.

The response from Chinese officials and most of the domestic media towards Mr Trump has been restrained since last Friday’s phone call.

However, the highly nationalist Global Times attacked Mr Moore’s comments in an editorial on Wednesday.

“This person who focuses on economic things did not do his homework on political things before he talked - he just talked like the angry youth on the Internet,” said the newspaper, which is affiliated to the People’s Daily, the Communist Party mouthpiece.

“It is unclear how many arrogant and ignorant people are in Trump's team, (but) we can see that Trump has started using hawkish politicians who have not engaged in government affairs for a long time.

“It is hoped that President Trump won’t be tricked by a 'pig team member'," the newspaper said, warning that he could end up "stuck in a quagmire of confrontation against China at the very beginning of him taking office".

“At that time, he will find there is no way to back down, and it will be too late for regrets.”

It came as Stephen Yates, a former US deputy national security adviser with links to the Trump team, arrived in Taiwan.

Mr Yates, a fluent Mandarin speaker, is seen by some observers as being behind the call – a suggestion he has denied.

The former advisor to Dick Cheney told Taiwanese media: “I am happy the call took place and am happy to be here in Taiwan to talk to friends."

The President of Taiwan CALLED ME today to wish me congratulations on winning the Presidency. Thank you!
The New York Times, meanwhile, said that former US presidential nominee Bob Dole had worked behind the scenes to set up the call.

It has also emerged that Beijing had urged US officials not to not let Ms Tsai pass through the country next month.

There had been speculation in Taiwanese media that Ms Tsai was to meet with the president-elect in New York as she was on route to visiting three Central American countries.

The Chinese foreign ministry said in a statement to Reuters that it hopes the United States "does not allow her transit, and does not send any wrong signals to 'Taiwan independence' forces”.

Any likelihood of a meeting has been dismissed by Mr Trump’s team, while Taiwan’s Presidential Office called the reports “excessive speculation”.

Additional reporting by Christine Wei

[Philip]

http://thediplomat.com/2016/12/donald-t ... china-sea/

Donald Trump Just Gave Chinese Hawks a Great Talking Point on the South China Sea
Donald Trump’s brief remark on the South China Sea may be more significant than you think.

By Ankit Panda
December 05, 2016

On Sunday evening, U.S. President-Elect Donald J. Trump made his first public comment on the South China Sea since winning the U.S. presidential election on November 8. Taking to Twitter, Trump issued two tweets, mentioning the South China Sea alongside economic issues on the U.S.-China agenda:

Did China ask us if it was OK to devalue their currency (making it hard for our companies to compete), heavily tax our products going into..
their country (the U.S. doesn’t tax them) or to build a massive military complex in the middle of the South China Sea? I don’t think so!

I don’t want to make close-reading tweets from the next president of the United States a habit, as they might not end up informing policy that could otherwise be shaped primarily by his staff and appointees, but there’s a few important points worth noting here and may be of interest to Diplomat readers.

First, the facts: China does not possess something that I would call a “massive military complex in the middle of the South China Sea.” We’ve covered Chinese moves and developments in the South China Sea extensively here at The Diplomat, and the closest things that would come to what Trump is talking about would be the Chinese base at Woody Island in the Paracels, which hosts a full-time personnel contingent of around 1,400 People’s Liberation Army troops, or the Hainan Island submarine base. Neither is geographically in the “middle” of the South China Sea, exactly.

Trump could alternatively be referring to China’s seven artificial islands. Chinese President Xi Jinping famously resolved not to militarize these features, which are all in the Spratly Islands, but satellite imagery analysis has steadily shown China setting up dual-use infrastructure, including air strips, on these islands, suggesting that militarization could be forthcoming. The seven distinct artificial islands do not compose one single “massive military complex” and are interspersed with features occupied by other South China Sea claimants. A charitable read of the president-elect’s remark might concede that taken together, these Chinese initiatives can be described as a “massive military complex.” Trump has used the term “fortress” in the past, as well.

(As an aside, Trump’s remark on Chinese taxes on U.S. products is somewhat of a non-sequitur. China is part of the World Trade Organization and hasn’t faced criticism from the body for non-compliant tariffs against the United States. China has lost separate WTO cases against the United States, the European Union, and Japan over its restrictions on rare earth minerals, and against the EU and Japan over anti-dumping tariffs related to stainless steel imports.)

Second, the South China Sea claimants: Trump’s tweets imply that China should be asking the United States permission to build military facilities in the South China Sea. While it is true that Chinese claims in the South China Sea are capacious, provocative, and in conflict with international law, the United States is not a claimant in the South China Sea and has made a policy of not taking a position on questions of sovereignty in these disputes. Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan are the other formal claimants in the South China Sea. (Part of Indonesia’s claimed exclusive economic zone overlaps with China’s claims as well.)

Assuming that Trump’s tweet can shed any insight on U.S. policy toward the South China Sea, it is likely that, for the first time since relations between the United States and China were normalized, we may see the United States (and not Beijing) overtly link the bilateral economic and security agendas. For instance, as Trump alludes, China’s monetary policy could come to influence how the United States conceives of its role in the South China Sea. The United States and China, as two large powers, have a comprehensive bilateral agenda that encompasses cooperation and cooperation at the bilateral, regional, and global levels.

For hawks in China, where a domestic debate exists on the correct path forward for the country in the South China Sea, Trump’s tweets will be a welcome development. Here you have the incoming president of the United States implying that Beijing would have to ask for U.S. permission to undertake activities in what China regards as its sovereign territory.

For Chinese proponents of further unilateral actions in the South China Sea, including, but not limited to, the declaration of an air defense identification zone, additional land reclamation activities, or the overt militarization of the Spratly artificial islands, Trump’s tweet will be an important data point. (I’d expect to see commentaries in the Global Times and other Chinese outlets seizing on this as well.) Trump, with his insinuation, may vindicate certain voices in China who’ve long argued that territorial hegemony is the United States’ final goal in the South China Sea and the U.S. Navy’s plan for the Asia-Pacific’s maritime environs more broadly.

It’s additionally notable that Trump’s comment on the South China Sea comes shortly after his historic decision to break with U.S. precedent and speak with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen. Though China’s reaction was subdued against Trump and the United States — likely because he still the president-elect awaiting inauguration — Trump’s South China Sea remark suggests a further application of pressure on a Chinese “core interest.” State sovereignty, national unity, and territorial integrity are among China’s “core interests.”

As I remarked shortly after Trump’s tweet, Chinese foreign policy-makers will have little precedent to work with when it comes to interpreting Trump’s signal. As the Taiwan phone call episode demonstrated, Trump will likely get a pass as president-elect, but continued statements of this sort after January 20 could have the effect of setting U.S.-China relations on a negative trajectory.

Though Trump spoke extensively about China during his campaign for the presidency — both during the primary and the general election periods — he did not comment widely on the South China Sea disputes. In April 2016, one of the few times he spoke about the issue in an interview, he had the following to say to the New York Times: “We have rebuilt China, and yet they will go in the South China Sea and build a military fortress the likes of which perhaps the world has not seen,” Trump said. “Amazing, actually. They do that, and they do that at will because they have no respect for our president and they have no respect for our country.”

Trump has not to date addressed or offered specific criticisms of Obama administration initiatives in the South China sea in detail, including the U.S. Navy’s freedom of navigation program.

[Philip]

More reports. China sending one of its N-capable strat. TU-16 bombers over the disputed sea was showing Trump the upturned finger. Expect more sabre-rattling.

http://thediplomat.com/2016/04/australi ... china-sea/

Australian Intelligence: China Poised to Take 'Decisive and Provocative' Action in the South China Sea
U.S. and Australian intelligence agencies voice concern about China’s recent moves in the South China Sea.

By Carl Thayer
April 15, 2016

Two recent developments suggest that China is preparing to take preemptive action in the South China Sea in advance of the ruling by the Arbitral Tribunal at the Permanent Count of Arbitration (PCA) in The Hague on claims against it brought by the Philippines. (That ruling is expected in late-May or June.)

These developments include beefing up air defenses on Woody Island in the Paracels, and, moreover, leaked intelligence assessments that China may be planning major construction activities at Scarborough Shoal.

Satellite imagery taken on April 7 revealed that China recently deployed two additional Shenyang J-11 multirole jet fighters and the Active Electronically Scanned Array or AESA system to Woody Island. Pentagon officials estimate that China has about ten military aircraft stationed there, including J-11s and Xian JH-7s. The J-11 is an air superiority fighter, similar to the Russian Su-27, with a range of 3,530 km, according to the journal Air Force Technology. The JH-7 is a fighter bomber.

In February this year China placed eight batteries of the HQ-9 surface-to-air missile system on Woody island; four are currently operational. These missiles have a range of nearly 220 km. Now that China has deployed the AESA fire control radar it will be able to more accurately monitor aircraft movements around Woody Island. The AESA system tracks multiple targets at the same time and gathers data on the target’s range, altitude, direction and speed in order to direct the HQ-9 missiles.

There are three likely explanations for China’s action.

First, China is reacting to the activation of the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement between the Philippines and the United States. In March the Philippines released the names of four air bases and one army base that will be open to the rotation of U.S. military personnel, planes and equipment. Also in March the Philippines and the U.S. began conducting joint naval patrols in the South China Sea. Joint air patrols are expected to commence this month.

China also is angered at the current Balikatan (Shoulder-to-Shoulder) military exercises underway in the Philippines involving U.S., Australian, and other military forces and the accompanying visit by U.S. Defense Secretary Ashton Carter to the Philippines. After the conclusion of Balikatan six military aircraft (including five Warthog ground-attack planes) and three helicopters will remain at Clark Air Force Base along with 200 pilots and crew.

Second, China also may be reacting to recent reports that the next U.S. Freedom of Navigation Operational Patrol in the South China Sea will take place shortly, following a first operation in the Spratlys in October 2015 and another in the Paracels in January 2016.

Third, China likely is responding to the G7’s adoption of a special statement on maritime security. This statement declared:

We express our strong opposition to any intimidating, coercive or provocative unilateral actions that could alter the status quo and increase tensions, and urge all states to refrain from such actions as land reclamations including large scale ones, building of outposts, as well as their use for military purposes and to act in accordance with international law including the principles of freedoms of navigation and overflight.

China strongly condemned the G-7 statement.

In the longer term, China’s deployment of fighter aircraft and fire control radar to the Paracels demonstrates its capability to deploy small numbers of modern jet aircraft, surface-to-air missiles, and fire control radar at short notice to airstrips elsewhere in the South China Sea and that the United States can take no action to prevent it from doing so. China also is sending a signal to the United States that the risks have gone up if the United States continues to conduct aerial reconnaissance of sensitive Chinese military installations and fly over People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) warships in the South China Sea.

U.S. intelligence sources confirmed last month that China had drawn up plans for a new phase of militarization involving Scarborough Shoal. The Australian media has reported similar concerns by Australian intelligence and analytical agencies, presumably Australia’s Defense Intelligence Organization and the Office of National Assessments, that China is poised to take “decisive and provocative action” in the Spratly Islands. These sources report that China may dynamite Scarborough Shoal to build an artificial island to house military facilities or declare an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). China declared an ADIZ in the East China Sea in November 2013.

If these reports are accurate, China is likely to erect small permanent structures on Scarborough Shoal and station personnel on them. China would justify its actions under the guise of providing public goods such as weather reports and safety of navigation. By acting quickly China would leave the United States and the Philippines flat footed. This would lay the ground work for further expansion in the future.

Once the Arbitral Tribunal makes its finding public, China is likely to mount an international campaign challenging the legitimacy of the Tribunal. Australia got a foretaste of China’s likely propaganda offensive when leaders of the Australian Chinese community convened a forum on April 9 in Sydney. The Diplomat received a translated copy of an official statement released by Australian Chinese community leaders. It stated that:

…the Australian political elite should have a sober understanding of these matters and should treat carefully on sensitive matters like the South China Sea. They should not send irrational and mistaken signals to the international community.

The statement also called on Australian political circles to “make appropriate preparations for a possible ‘crisis situation.’”

The meeting by Australia-Chinese community leaders took place on the eve of Malcolm Turnbull’s first visit to Beijing as prime minister. Prior to Turnbull’s departure the media reported that he would raise his concerns over the South China Sea privately to Premier Li Keqiang and President Xi Jinping in Beijing.

Turnbull was greeted on arrival in Shanghai with a news report in the China Daily that quoted a member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences as stating that the South China Sea dispute “will cast a shadow on the promising (economic) cooperation if such a tendency keeps developing.” This was viewed as a veiled warning that Australia’s economic interests could be harmed by its South China Sea policy. Earlier in March, Turnbull characterized China’s South China Sea policy as “counterproductive.”

If China converted Scarborough Shoal into an artificial island and constructed an airfield and harbor, it would have the basic infrastructure to prevent the Philippines from operating in the waters of the Spratly islands, leaving Pag-asa island and Second Thomas Shoal exposed.

If China placed long-range radar, fire control radar, surface-to-air missiles, and anti-ship cruise missiles on its artificial islands, including Scarborough Shoal, it would be in a much better position to monitor the movements of U.S. Seventh Fleet vessels using Subic Bay, for example.

The U.S. Navy and other regional navies would be placed at risk in a crisis situation in the South China Sea. China would have excellent maritime domain awareness and be able to respond to the intrusion of foreign military ships and aircraft once it completed the construction of airfields, protected hangars, and fuel storage facilities.

China’s J-11 multirole air superiority fighters could take off from Woody Island to conduct combat air patrols. They could extend their patrol time by landing and refueling on an airfield on one of the artificial islands.

China has constructed and continues to construct helipads on its occupied features. This would enable China to monitor U.S. submarines through the deployment of aerial reconnaissance aircraft and anti-submarine warfare helicopters.

If China undertakes “decisive and provocative” action by shoring up its position on Scarborough Shoal, it would present a fait accompli to findings of the Arbitral Tribunal. The Tribunal has no power of enforcement. China’s pre-emptive actions would likely derail any concerted action by the international community to exert diplomatic pressure on China to respect international law by accepting the findings of the Arbitral Tribunal. Concerns about international law would be sidelined by China’s newest phase of militarization.
.

[Philip]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/ ... -china-sea

Images show 'significant' Chinese weapons systems in South China Sea
Washington-based thinktank says Beijing has installed anti-aircraft and anti-missile systems and guns on artificial reefs
A satellite image shows what the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative says appears to be anti-aircraft guns and close-in weapons systems (CIWS) on the artificial island Hughes Reef in the South China Sea.
Tom Phillips in Beijing
Thursday 15 December 2016 04.03 GMT First published on Thursday 15 December 2016 00.42 GMT
China appears to have positioned “significant” weapons systems, including anti-aircraft and anti-missile systems, on all seven of the artificial islands it has built in the South China Sea, despite vowing it had no intention of militarising the archipelago, a US thinktank has claimed.

During a state visit to the United States last year President Xi Jinping publicly stated that China did “not intend to pursue militarisation” of the strategic and resource-rich trade route through which about $4.5tn (£3.4tn) in trade passes each year.

However, satellite images released on Wednesday by the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies appeared to show Beijing was doing just that.

'A storm is gathering on the horizon': Chinese scholars fret about Trump
Read more
The Washington-based group said the images, which were taken last month, showed what appeared to be anti-aircraft guns and close-in weapons systems (CIWS) installed on man-made islands in the South China Sea’s disputed Spratly archipelago, where Brunei, China, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam all have territorial claims.

In a report, China’s new Spratly island defences, the AMTI said its analysts had identified what appeared to be defence “fortifications” on Fiery Cross, Mischief and Subi reefs.

Anti-aircraft guns and what were likely to be CIWS to fend off cruise missile strikes appeared to have been built on two other reefs, Hughes and Gaven.

“These gun and probable CIWS emplacements show that Beijing is serious about defense of its artificial islands in case of an armed contingency in the South China Sea,” the AMTI said.

“Among other things, they would be the last line of defence against cruise missiles launched by the United States or others against these soon-to-be-operational air bases.”

Apparent weapons systems on Johnson Reef in the South China Sea.

Apparent weapons systems on Johnson Reef in the South China Sea. Photograph: Digitalglobe/Reuters
Regional experts told the Guardian the images gave the lie to China’s claims that it was not militarising the region.

“Beijing is militarising the Spratly islands despite the fact that it has said it would not,” said Ashley Townshend, a fellow at the University of Sydney’s United States studies centre.

“Beijing did say earlier in the year that it reserves the right to defend its artificial islands if necessary, and it has tried to portray these sorts of defenses… as a tit-for-tat response to American naval presence in the region. I’m sure we will see this in the coming days. But, however you want to look at it, this is an act of militarisation.”

Ian Storey, a South China Sea expert at Singapore’s institute of southeast Asian studies, said: “The new satellite images clearly show that despite President Xi’s pledge that China would not militarise the South China Sea, that process of militarisation continues apace.

“Although China claims that the main purpose of its artificial islands is for civilian purposes, regional observers simply don’t buy it,” Storey added.

Suspected weapons installations on Gaven Reefs. Photograph: Digitalglobe/Reuters
“It’s been glaringly obvious from the outset of China’s reclamation projects that the primary purpose of these artificial islands is strategic: to enable China to project military power into the very heart of southeast Asia’s maritime domain so as to enforce its territorial and jurisdictional claims in the South China Sea.

“The installation of these air defence systems indicates that the facilities are nearing completion and ready to host air and naval assets on a permanent basis.”

Greg Poling, AMTI’s director, told Reuters the images suggested China was “prepping for a future conflict”.

“They keep saying they are not militarising, but they could deploy fighter jets and surface-to-air missiles tomorrow if they wanted to … Now they have all the infrastructure in place for these interlocking rings of defence and power projection,” Poling added.

Australia’s foreign minister, Julie Bishop, accused Beijing of “creating an environment of tension and mistrust” in the South China Sea.

Without specifically naming China, Bishop warned that the construction of artificial islands and “possible militarisation” of the region would “lead to reputation and other costs for claimants engaging in such behaviour”.

Obama’s failed ‘Asian pivot’ leaves China ascendant | Simon Tisdall
Read more
The photographs were released just days after the US president-elect angered Beijing by hinting he may be preparing to take a harder line over issues such as Taiwan and its activities in the South China Sea.

In an interview with Fox News last Sunday, Trump accused Beijing of “building a massive fortress in the middle of the South China Sea, which they shouldn’t be doing”.

In a recent article for Foreign Policy, one Trump adviser complained that Obama’s “meekness” had encouraged “Chinese aggression” in the region.

“Beijing has created some 3,000 acres of artificial islands in the South China Sea with very limited American response,” wrote Peter Navarro, the author of a book called The Coming China Wars, urging Trump to impose a “peace through strength” policy on the the region.

Townshend said many of those around Trump believed Beijing’s increasingly assertive behaviour in the South China Sea was evidence it no longer respected the Obama administration or the United States.

“It is safe to assume that he will want to correct this image … We can expect him to continue the existing program of freedom of navigation operations, and probably to step them up in some way. Maybe this will be increasing the frequency of patrols, or going to places that the Obama administration has been hesitant to go – such as actually undertaking a non-innocent passage military patrols within 12 miles of an artificial island. We haven’t seen this yet.

“This would be in line with what appears to be Trump’s more hawkish approach to China policy.”

Storey said that in the wake of the latest images: “The Obama administration will undoubtedly reiterate its call for all parties to halt the militarisation of the South China Sea, but it is unlikely to take any concrete action.

“Indeed, in the face of these revelations it has very few options. Until [Trump’s policies for Asia become clear] we wait.”

Townshend said that having been concerned that a Trump White House might pull back from the region, the US’s regional friends were now worried he might come down too hard on China.

“Initially we had fears that Trump was going to be a bit of an isolationist … Now the big question for allies and partners is this: not will Donald Trump’s China policy be too weak, but will it be too strong?”

[svinayak]

India’s tit-for-tat for Chinese core interests could rile Beijing: analysts

Last week, India extended support to Mongolia after China slapped a toll tax on trucks passing between the two countries on the back of a visit by the Dalai Lama to Ulaanbator. Indian foreign ministry spokesman Vikas Swarup said India was ready to extend help to Mongolia following the Chinese move given that the new tax put pressure on the Mongolian economy.

And on Monday came a joint India-Indonesia statement on maritime cooperation that spoke of commitment from the leaders of the two countries to “maintaining a maritime legal order based on the principles of international law.”

This is seen backing for the Indonesian position and sending a subtle message to China which has refused to abide by a July 2016 verdict by an international court in the Hague that dismissed China’s claims over the South China Sea.

“Both leaders recognized that India and Indonesia share common interests in ensuring maritime security and the safety of sea lines of communication. Both leaders recognized the importance of freedom of navigation and overflight on the high seas, unimpeded lawful commerce, as well as resolving maritime disputes by peaceful means, in accordance with universally recognised principles of international law including the UNCLOS,” the statement said.

The joint statement tasked the defence ministers of the two countries “to explore collaboration between defence industries for joint production of equipment with technology transfer, technical assistance, and capacity building cooperation.”

According to Baladas Ghoshal, a former professor of southeast Asia and south-west Pacific Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, India should help Indonesia in building up its navy which is in need of support. Bolstering defence cooperation with Jakarta could be another signal to Beijing, he said.

[yensoy]

Are we fingering the dragon to get them to clean their stance on Paki/Hafiz/NSG?

[Philip]

No chance of that happening.The Dragon remember considers itself to be the "Middle Kingdom",between heaven and earth with the rest of us mere barbarians and serfs.India has to be more aggressive with China diplomatically and take most yrgent military measures so that we maintain a degree of offensive capability that keeps it in check instead of displaying a purely defensive,defeatist posture.

[Rammpal]

Trump's man for the job of Sec. of State is the Exxon-Mobil chief,the equiv of president of any major power.The speed with which OPEC arrived at an historic agreement after decades,to cut oil production was partly due to jt. US-Ru nudging.The Trump-Putin equation is having an effect already.Oil prices rose by 6%.Tension with China will make them further rise.Time then for US shale oil to get "fracking",pardon the pun! Watch this ICS space.

China is an importer.
Why should crude price go up ?
It's not part of any major sea route either, i.e.: plenty of alternative routes available.
Petroleum products though, is another story, vis-a-vis, their current price crippling capacity.
And, when that happens, India/Ambani wins too.

[Manish_Sharma]

https://swarajyamag.com/current-affairs ... gya-crisis

India Replaces China As Top Retail Destination: Study:

India has replaced China this year as the top retail destination as part of the study on global retail development index. According to India Retail Report 2017, over the past 12-15 months, 100 per cent cash and carry operations are gaining significance in India with Thailand’s Siam Makro being the latest entrant in this space following Metro, Walmart and Booker. The change in ranking was an outcome of four factors including increased consumer spending, beyond essentials, rising mobile and internet penetration, favourable foreign investment climate and bold action on cashless transaction and goods and services tax, AT Kearney partner Subhendu Roy said on the concluding day of the two-day India Retail Forum 2017. “This has triggered the entry of global brands into India with transparency and ease,” he added.

[ramana]

Rory Medcalf wrote a book on Indo-Pacific.
And US Navy has an Indo-Pacific Journal to which many Indian scholars are contributing.

[kit]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/wor ... 350699.cms

https://www.cgtn.com/special/Live-updat ... erway.html

A China Eastern Airlines Boeing 737-800 with 132 people on board crashed in mountains in southern China on a domestic flight on Monday following a sudden descent from cruising altitude

A passenger plane crashed in south China's Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region on Monday afternoon with 132 aboard.

- There were 123 passengers and nine crew members.

- The China Eastern Airlines Boeing 737 crashed in Tengxian County in the city of Wuzhou, causing a mountain wildfire.

- The plane was flying from Kunming to Guangzhou when the incident occurred.

- Rescuers have assembled but total casualties were not immediately known.

[anupmisra]

Chinese Foreign Minister’s remarks on Kashmir at OIC meet uncalled for, says India

India reacted sharply to Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s statement on the issue of Jammu and Kashmir at a recent session of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), asserting that the comments were uncalled for.

“We reject the uncalled reference to India by the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi during his speech at the Opening Ceremony. Matters related to the Union Territory of Jammu & Kashmir are entirely the internal affairs of India. Other countries including China have no locus standi to comment. They should note that India refrains from public judgement of their internal issues,” said Bagchi.

“On the Kashmir issue, we have once again heard the call of many Islamic friends. China shares the same aspiration,” the Chinese Foreign Minister said.

And, the chini FM is about to arrive in India after the OIC conference. India should cancel this visit.

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/c ... 2022-03-23

[Dilbu]

Interests outweigh differences, let’s meet halfway: China to India

BEIJING: China and India’s “common interests far outweigh differences”, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi has said, adding that the two countries should put the differences on the border in its appropriate place and seek to resolve the dispute through dialogue and consultation.

The two countries should support rather than undermine each other and enhance trust rather than be suspicious, Wang said in his first meeting with ambassador Pradeep Kumar Rawat, who became India’s envoy to China in March, in Beijing on Wednesday.

Wang said the two sides “should meet each other halfway to push bilateral relations back onto the track of stable and healthy development at an early date…”

Wang’s meeting with Rawat ahead of the 14th Brics (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) summit - which is being hosted online by Beijing - appears to be China’s attempt to convey a sense of solidarity within the group despite serious Sino-India bilateral differences.

“China and India’s common interests far outweigh their differences, adding that the two sides should support rather than undermine each other, strengthen cooperation rather than guard against each other, and enhance mutual trust rather than be suspicious of each other,” Wang was quoted as telling Rawat, according to a Chinese foreign ministry statement on the meeting.