US carrier group carrying some 6000 humans besides a whole lot of presents for delivery, is heading for Sea of Japan. NoKo is preparing for what might be a thermonuclear weapon ground test. Maybe another ballistic missile launch. China is rumored to have sent 150,000 troops to the NoKo border.
The US carrier group is under the command and "control" ( a loose term) of POTUS DT and his merry band in the NSC, led by "Vadhera" Kushner, with WHOTUS' Diplomatic Statements emanating from no less than OberSturmFuhrer/ Loose Cannon Herr Spicer. The COTUS, that fine body of eminent statespeople elected By The People of The USA, in their deep deliberations, show all the calm judicial sense of a classic lynch mob. War hysteria is being whipped up with glee by the US Mainstream Media, amplified and deliciously fed with expertly cooked "Evidence" straight from the kitchens of Langley and Quantico. As the Carpenters crooned:
Its Yesterday Once More....
Not that we can do diddly other than watch and yak. So let's!
1. I do not see how that carrier group can turn back peacefully with NoKo having let off a thermonuke or ballistic missile right before their "eyes". Return to "status quo ante" etc. would give too much radioactive ammunition to CNN and POTUS' internal enemies.
SCENARIO A: NoKO does nothing: US carrier group stuck in S-o-J
2. If NoKo simply sits back and waits, the carrier group will look increasingly silly, but I suspect that DC media will lose interest swiftly. Trust DT&Co to create some other diversion for the well-known attention span of Americans. So one huge possible outcome is defeat for the US by NOTHING HAPPENING. Ultimately the carrier group will slink away, Dear Fat Leader will celebrate and feed a few more relatives to dogs.
SCENARIO B: NoKO launches massive artillery barrage as threatened:
3. People here talk of the horrible power of the NoKo DMZ-based artillery and its effect on Seoul-lessness. Maybe that is the bluff that DT has decided to call. If NoKo starts an artillery barrage, the 75 planes and 200 SLCMs on the carrier group will certainly launch a decapitation strike on Pyongyang. SoKo's military is not exactly powerless, they will hammer the NoKo artillery with massive suppression fire.
4. SoKo/US will probably establish air superiority within the first 5 minutes (already a VERY long time for Seoul!) followed by a real hammering. But this would enable airborne landings across the DMZ by near-suicide SoKo paratroopers. First they will saturate NoKo with news of the decapitation strike, removing the regime in Pyongyang. IMO this is SoKo's best hope for survival.
5. Once that "artillery" bluff is called, NoKo will collapse (why do I sound like MacArthur's advisors?) But PeeAllSee will intervene with "humanitarian aid" and "peacekeeping forces". This is where I fear that DT's carrier group does not have nearly enough strength.
6. The Red Line IMO is US forces actually OCCUPYING Pyongyang. Instead what if SoKo forces do the honors with US planes overhead? I doubt that PeeAllSee wants another Yalu/Chosin situation with 700,000 dead.
SCENARIO C: US launches limited pre-emptive attack on NoKo Ballistic Missile launch facilities, nuclear reactors and test site.
7. Conventional wisdom says that this will trigger the NoKo artillery barrage (B). What if it does not?
8. DT feted along with the Admiral of the Carrier Group in Ticker Tape Parade in New York.
9. NoKo will set off another nuke test using next bum donated by PeeAllSee, once the carrier group leaves.
10. Another carrier group heads that way. Repeat from Step 1.
SCENARIO D: US launches decapitation strike on NoKo REGIME. Diyar Fat Leader's whereabout unknown, but 80% of his uniformed relatives are shaheed.
11. China launches Strong Protest.
12. Taiwan suffers mysterious spate of assassinations.
13. New Taiwan regime mysteriously fails to detect that 250,000 of the 300,000 happy, fit-looking tourists who landed in the 3 weeks prior, are now standing at all main street corners and in front of govt. buildings while the other 50,000 are IN those buildings.
14. Yemeni Houthis seen to possess missiles that have PeeAllSee markings; suddenly appear INSIDE Saudi cities as happened in Seoul and Saigon many years ago. KSA in no shape to wage war anywhere.
15. Iran sets off a nuclear blast; Russia gently warns Israel/US against any attack.
16. Back to Step 1 with Iran replacing NoKo, Israel replacing SoKo.
SCENARIO E: Now it gets REALLY scary. NoKo achieves surprise attack on US carrier group. One destroyer sunk, two more in flames, carrier hit and listing. Casualties are in the thousands.
17. NoKo, whatever else, are innovative, and technologically (for military thingies) far ahead of say, Pakis, ISIS etc. Every day for the past 68 years they have dreamt of hitting a US carrier group. Now one is right in their faces. Is it too far-fetched that they have suicidal plans for such things? Everyone there knows of a grandfather/grandmother/uncle/aunt who burned to death from a US weapon strike, or starved to death, or was tortured to death (Google pictures of Korean war, where the "UN" occupied NoKo b4 the Yalu/Chosin pleasantries). So I believe that deep hate can be incited, and the regime is good at doing that.
I have no idea how they might accomplish that, but stranger things have happened when grand Armadas approached places with obviously destructive intent.
etc.The Assyrian came down like the Wolf on the fold..
His cohorts were gleaming in purple and gold..
The Russian Fleet in the Sea of Japan.. The Spanish Armada off England..
Desperate people can do pretty powerful things.
18. I can't speculate how things will spin from there. The US tends not to sit back and nurse its wounds, if such an attack occurs.
SCENARIO F: Instead of an artillery barrage, NoKo actually invades by land, sea and air, towards SoKo
19. I think that will be a massacre and SoKo will be able to stop and reverse the invasion.
SCENARIO G: Chinese forces "invade" and "take over" NoKo nuke and missile facilities
20. The US will have to step back and declare victory, knowing that it is actually total defeat: The weapons and nuke facilities were Chinese to begin with. DT will have been check-mated.
21. SoKo's last hope of reunification on favorable terms, evaporates. Now the fear is that SoKo will also be "assimilated" like Tibet. And this time the US troops there do not provide any credible deterrent.
So... guess what the UBCN prediction is..