OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 14 May 2017 07:03

OBOR summit: India can join project later, hints Beijing - Saibal Dasgupta, ToI

China on Saturday sent out conflicting signals even as India decided to boycott the two-day Belt and Road Forum in Beijing starting tomorrow.

Beijing suggested that it is ready keep the doors open for India to join the Belt program at a later date but will not budge from a construction program in Gilgit-Baltistan.

Pakistan prime minister Nawaz Sharif, who is attending the summit, brought along with him chief ministers of four Pakistani provinces. However, he did not include the chief minister of Gilgit-Baltistan, which covers the disputed PoK region. This is seen as an attempt to placate New Delhi and send out a signal that India is still welcome to join the Belt and Road program.

On the other hand, China hosted a conference on Saturday on the construction of a major hydroelectricity dam, the Diamer-Bhasha Dam, which is located in the disputed areas of Gilgit-Baltistan. The purpose of holding the conference at this time was to convey that the Indian boycott would not affect Chinese determination to construct projects in the area.

India has objected to the fact that one portion of the Belt and Road program, the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), passes through Pakistan-occupied-Kashmir, raising serious sovereignty concerns.

"The government head in Gilgit-Baltistan did not come for technical reasons. But China is also conveying a subtle message that is recognises India's concerns on the Kashmir issue," Hu Shishang, director of the government-run Institute of South and South East Asian Affairs told TOI.

Hu added it would be perfectly alright if India wants to take its own time to decide, and prefers to join the Belt and Road program at a later date.

"This is not a time-bound program. A country may join when it feels more confident about it. But this is a globalized world, and it would only help India if it joins the program," he said.

Pakistan had earlier tried to obtain finance for the Daimer-Bhasha dam project from the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank and the Aga Khan Foundation. But there were serious questions about whether these financiers would agree without obtaining a no-objection sign from India, which claims the area as it own.

China's National Energy Administration has now stepped forward to finance and construct the project. NEA made a presentation about how it will go about the task at a conference attended by Sharif in Beijing on Saturday.

A memorandum of understanding on the project was also signed by the Chinese ambassador in Pakistan, Sun Weidong, and Pakistani power secretary Naseem Khokhar.

The decision to drop Gilgit-Baltistan chief minister Hafeez-ur-Rehman from Sharif's delegation resulted in strong resentment being expressed by the people in the province in the social media, according to Pakistan Today. Rehman was in the original list of delegates but dropped at the last minute, it reported.

Sharif's team in Beijing includes chief ministers of Punjab, Sindh, Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces of Pakistan. He is also accompanied by five ministers from the central government in Islamabad.

The Indian Embassy in Beijing could not confirm if New Delhi was sending a delegation to the Belt and Road Forum (BRF). It said that it had "nothing to offer" by way of information on this count.

"Apart from the soverignity issue, a major reason why India cannot support the BRF is that China is in an empire-building mode," Mohan Malik, professor at the US-based Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies told TOI.

"It's trying to build an empire of exclusive economic enclaves that would create a Sino-centric unipolar Asia. This is China's "imperial overreach" at a time of economic slowdown," he said.

Malik said, "Chinese officials, in jest, talk of buying off smaller countries instead of invading them". {That was not said in 'jest'. That was said in all seriousness and in fact even proven}

China recently offered to rename the CPEC to meet concerns that the disputed Kashmir area cannot be described as "Pakistan" because India has claims on the area. But the offer was quickly withdrawn following protests in Pakistan.

"Pakistan will ask questions if the name of CPEC is changed now. I think it is too late to do that. In fact, changing the name at this stage can spoil the entire project," Hu said.

Hu said India should accept that the Belt and Road is now a fact of life. "It is now a worldwide trend and cannot be reversed. India is a big economic block, and it will gain more from joining it instead of being isolated," he added.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 14 May 2017 07:07

Btw the car states and east eurasian steppe lands caucasus basin are better served by container and mineral trains and pipelines...all of which obor will build.

Sea routes are via iran or via ukraine russia and georgia on the black sea..politically not easy for all and much longer for the car states.

Economic viability is not immediate 20yr goal of obor....getting allies among states, good trade deals and bases and inserting renminbi as settlement curreny is. If 60% of a countrys foreign trade is with china there is no need to worship the dollar or euro.

Cheen will gradually let renminbi find a harder level vs the euro dollar and yen.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 14 May 2017 07:09

When I look at the road from Chengdu to Tibet and I finish off the formalities of praising China and kowtowing to their engineering work so that my fellow Indians are not upset at my blasphemy at being critical of China - we are still left with the fact that those roads are not all weather -all year roads - and they are right in the middle of China. That is why the main transport to Tibet starts in the North and skirts the mountains and then moves south on permafrost to Lhasa.

This brings me to the idea that while OBOR is more ambitious than CPEC - the sea routes planned for the "one road" part of OBOR seem like a hedge against failure of CPEC. Whether China or China admirers like it of not the Khunjerab pass area is never going to be an all-weather all year road. After that CPEC has to go via Gilgit - to be reoccupied by India, and via Baluchistan. Note that while Chinese workers will work on the project the Pakistan army will have to protect he workers. CPEC itself looks to to me like a failing enterprise. That does not mean that India should not help it fail - but the portents are there. If CPEC was to be an unalloyed success then OBOR itself can take a different route - using more of CPEC and less of the northern route. Just my thoughts

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 14 May 2017 07:11

SSridhar wrote:
Hu said India should accept that the Belt and Road is now a fact of life. "It is now a worldwide trend and cannot be reversed. India is a big economic block, and it will gain more from joining it instead of being isolated," he added.

Trend!! Look what's trending on social media folks. OBOR is a "worldwide trend". If only 10% of Indians had this degree of chutzpah we would not be sitting and lamenting all day long

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 14 May 2017 07:15

Elites in grateful small nations will trip over themselves to lease bases once they taste the fruits of peking money...unless usa can offer similar subsidy which it cannot.

Its game over and seems to me usa has no real plan or even desire to contain china except in very limited sense of protecting its east asian tier1 allies like singapore soko and japan.

Let us see how many toasts to friendship are raised by heads of states in peking this week...many i think

Those expecting the massa will "do something" or prop us up as a poison pill#3 are living in dream world.

We are on our own.

Unless we execute on a 25yr spell of 10% growth and fox the woeful scale of domestic weapons industry we will be reduced to status of philipines .... beg and bark but not bite.

If some one is holding up stuff like agni5 for fake cbm they are even worse fools

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 14 May 2017 07:17

Obor will most certainly take northern routes via gansu and inner mongolia..cold but all weather.

Cpec is to tie up tsp firmly and needle india. Tspian role as a ally is not germany or japan but north korea.

Whenever any rogue faction in d.c opens its mouth in protest , peking will pull ots usual trick of ordering 100 more 737 to reward or 100 a321 to punish. But both must txfer more tech and use more local parts in next deal lol

Cheen cannot defeat america militarily for 50 years atleast so it will shrink us influence, make some of its bases unviable, fly its manchu banner over eurasia, make deep economic plays in mexico brazil venezuela etc everyone that usa has pissed off in western hemisphere....

Idea is usa should be like a caged tiger in 2050..powerful but friendless and confined...so irrelevant

Chola ji your views?

Usa has enough loot guns and resources to.survive

What i am worried about is yindia...do we have any plan other than winning 2019? Our EAM is stuck in low level details like responding to tweets for help from nri...nothing bad but what are her higher level plays..infact why is not travelling more abroad? Namo cannot look after every important ministry

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 14 May 2017 07:31

Singha wrote:Elites in grateful small nations will trip over themselves to lease bases once they taste the fruits of peking money...unless usa can offer similar subsidy which it cannot.

Going back a few decades we saw elites like the Shah of Iran, Marcos of the Philippines and the puppet President of Vietnam all "trip over themselves" to offer the US a lot of facilities. The Filipinos got access to the US. Iran got F-14s and Phoenix missiles. Vietnam got rolling thunder. The US was soon sent packing.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 14 May 2017 07:33

Why is OBOR better than CPEC? What role does the maritime route of OBOR play that cannot be done by CPEC? Why have a separate maritime OBOR when CPEC is such a big success?

OBOR map:

CPEC map:

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 14 May 2017 07:34

So far peking has not displayed the gung ho cowboy attitude of the usa...a dangerpys sign for yindia hoping they will goof up.

So long as the usa eu is giving them huge trade surpluses they can continue to pour billions into capex along obor

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 14 May 2017 07:36

They will appease russia by opening a railway like via south russia too. Nothing like giving the big slav goonda a cut of the spoils.

The indian state needs to send a message.

A start would be crushing the kashmir intifada brutally and targeted strikes on terror dons in tsp.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 14 May 2017 07:49

CPEC Container ships sailing to Gwadar will have to sail out with no cargo. That would not be a problem if they simply went to nearby Indian ports and loaded up. But if India is out CPEC is not going to work. OBOR is to try and hoodwink India into using the created facilities.

I say "Balls. Let them make CPEC a success" I will buy groundnuts and nimbu pani

uddu · Post by **uddu** » 14 May 2017 08:09

India slams China's One Belt One Road initiative, says it violates sovereignty
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 664098.cms

In a strongly-worded statement on the eve of the event, which will see participation of more than 60 countries, India escalated its opposition to OBOR, suggesting that the project is little more than a colonial enterprise, leaving debt and broken communities in its wake.

"We are of the firm belief that connectivity initiatives must be based on universally recognised international norms, good governance, rule of law, openness, transparency and equality. Connectivity initiatives must follow principles of financial responsibility to avoid projects that would create unsustainable debt burden for communities; balanced ecological and environmental protection and preservation standards; transparent assessment of project costs; and skill and technology transfer to help long term running and maintenance of the assets created by local communities.

Connectivity projects must be pursued in a manner that respects sovereignty and territorial integrity."

Tuan · Post by **Tuan** » 14 May 2017 08:13

KLNMurthy wrote:
Tuan wrote:Sridhar, what I meant was that India is planning to unite with US and Japan to counter CPEC by engaging in naval exercises in the coming days, as I read here in BRF, I wonder why? Not to mention one of the ten principles of macroeconomics is that trade can make everyone better off, as opportunity cost plays a key role.

Neshant, I didn’t mean that India is weak and thus join hands with a stronger China, rather I envision a united world as one system. It could be a utopian and idealistic thought, but given the status quo of global affairs, including ongoing and upcoming wars, nuclear proliferation, terrorism, climate change, poverty, overpopulation, depletion of natural resources (fresh water, fossil fuel and arable lands), the only way forward is a peaceful coexistence of one world, IMHO.
How is a naval exercise a counter to CPEC?

You must be living under a rock! Have you ever heard the saying that armies for conquer & navies for port visits?

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 14 May 2017 08:16

Singha wrote:Whenever any rogue faction in d.c opens its mouth in protest , peking will pull ots usual trick of ordering 100 more 737 to reward or 100 a321 to punish. But both must txfer more tech and use more local parts in next deal lol

So long as the usa eu is giving them huge trade surpluses they can continue to pour billions into capex along obor

Lately, ordering planes has not been enough. Drumpf has used the border tax threat to gain more and more access to the Chinese markets, which Chinese have promptly complied based on the news came out on Friday. And, as long as Thollar remains at the top, the Chinese must earn it, to spend it on grand pet projects like OBOR (which, I think, may now be simply called as Belt and Road Initiatives -- BRI). The good news is that India need not join these bullish!t Chinese initiatives or worry too much about ignoring these initiatives (except for the potential military impact). Getting our own house of 1+billion people in order including governance is multifold impactful than worrying about effing OBOR. Unfortunately, we are always stuck in the vicious cycle in which we are in many ways dependent on other countries for tech, medicine etc. etc. That vicious cycle must slow down and end; followed by paying for imports using Rupees. Long way to go.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 14 May 2017 08:38

China’s Global Power Projection Hit With “Strategic Overdraft”

Jamestown foundation analysis. Seems mighty sceptical abot Xi's "core" leadership, seemingly.

Tuan · Post by **Tuan** » 14 May 2017 08:49

"Apart from the soverignity issue, a major reason why India cannot support the BRF is that China is in an empire-building mode," Mohan Malik, professor at the US-based Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies told TOI.

"It's trying to build an empire of exclusive economic enclaves that would create a Sino-centric unipolar Asia. This is China's "imperial overreach" at a time of economic slowdown," he said.

Malik said, "Chinese officials, in jest, talk of buying off smaller countries instead of invading them". {That was not said in 'jest'. That was said in all seriousness and in fact even proven}

Malik's Sino centric uni-polar Asia is twisted and questionable. In fact, in his book The Post-American World Fareed Zakaria long predicted that the future world will be a Sino-Indo centric multi-polar Asia. In the book, Zakaria argues that, thanks to the actions of the United States in spreading liberal democracy across the world, other countries are now competing with the US in terms of economic, industrial, and cultural power. While the US continues to dominate in terms of political-military power (again questionable with Trump in the White House), other countries such as China and India are becoming global players in many fields.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 14 May 2017 09:22

MSR seems heavily dependent on SL.

Which makes me wonder. Is Tamil Eelam necessarily a dead cause?

chola · Post by **chola** » 14 May 2017 09:31

Singha wrote:Obor will most certainly take northern routes via gansu and inner mongolia..cold but all weather.

Cpec is to tie up tsp firmly and needle india. Tspian role as a ally is not germany or japan but north korea.

Whenever any rogue faction in d.c opens its mouth in protest , peking will pull ots usual trick of ordering 100 more 737 to reward or 100 a321 to punish. But both must txfer more tech and use more local parts in next deal lol

Cheen cannot defeat america militarily for 50 years atleast so it will shrink us influence, make some of its bases unviable, fly its manchu banner over eurasia, make deep economic plays in mexico brazil venezuela etc everyone that usa has pissed off in western hemisphere....

Idea is usa should be like a caged tiger in 2050..powerful but friendless and confined...so irrelevant

Chola ji your views?

Usa has enough loot guns and resources to.survive

What i am worried about is yindia...do we have any plan other than winning 2019? Our EAM is stuck in low level details like responding to tweets for help from nri...nothing bad but what are her higher level plays..infact why is not travelling more abroad? Namo cannot look after every important ministry

My view is this, Singhaji:

OBOR is epic in scope. As I said, American in its vision and audacity.

But Cheen is forced into this gambit by the power of Unkil. It is risking $1 trillion to project its influence westward because the crown jewels at its doorstep are held in the vicelike grip of American hard power.

A Far East centered on Cheen comprising of Japan, the Korean Peninsula, Taiwan, etc. would be far more powerful than anything it can gain along the OBOR. Hell, a PRC that holds Taiwan and has free access to the Pacific would be immensely more powerful.

But sorry, Lizard. The Eagle holds court in your natural sphere of influence. In fact, possibly the onlee region that rivals North America and the EU is sundered from chini power. So that Cheen must peddle its influence in the chaotic states from the 'Stans through the bloody mess of the Middle East and then the poorest of goras in Eastern Yurop. A poor and uncertain second prize to what should be the Cheen emperor's birthright in East Asia. lol

The US will be powerful for a long, long time.

That said, I cannot but admire modern Cheen's strategy and their sheer pragmatism. Look at how they embraced their relations with the US when they are surrounded by US bases with real teeth in the forms of troops, ships and aircraft. We scream bloody murder over a few chini ports and wet ourselves over some "String of Pearls" while they respond to 100K ton CVNs and US spy planes day in and day out by ever deepening relations with the US and its Far Eastern allies.

Which brings us to OBOR today. Were Cheen like us, screaming and wetting over powerful adversaries in their neighborhood, they would be just as poor as us.

But instead, they used their relations with the US, Japan, Taiwan, S. Korea, Australia and the rest of the Unkil's many and powerful allies to build themselves this printing press.

A printing press that affords them the ability to shit away a trillion dollars over a visionary plan of epic proportions. Seeing what they've done before, I won't be surprised if they make this work over time. Knowing what I know of the US, it will not lose its grip either.

As far as Yindia is concerned, we would do well to fight a short and fun war with chini. Prolonged peace means the PRC wins because building shit is what it does best. Fighting kinetic wars? Not so much and becoming even worse over time with fatter and softer little emperors.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 14 May 2017 09:42

Nice writeup. Cheen is flowing like water into the cracks and channels between hard rocks it cannot budge like japan soko india russia...the gaps are weaker poorer failed or islamic states looking for patrons and them dragon is using these roots and creepers strategy to surround and isolate each rock

And roots are known to crack rocks eventually....repeated freezing and melting cycles...like how cheen uses tsp and noko as cats paws

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 14 May 2017 10:06

Singha wrote:Btw the car states and east eurasian steppe lands caucasus basin are better served by container and mineral trains and pipelines...all of which obor will build.

Sea routes are via iran or via ukraine russia and georgia on the black sea..politically not easy for all and much longer for the car states.

Economic viability is not immediate 20yr goal of obor....getting allies among states, good trade deals and bases and inserting renminbi as settlement curreny is. If 60% of a countrys foreign trade is with china there is no need to worship the dollar or euro.

Cheen will gradually let renminbi find a harder level vs the euro dollar and yen.

I agree economic viability is not an immediate goal of OBOR, but that is not how it is being marketed to the `client states''.
I've done business with the CAR states. They already have trains, container terminals, pipelines etc. They have not invested in more of these because the volume of trade does not justify it. I wonder if any of the fans of OBOR have calculated how many trains are required to replace one container ship, or considered that the cost by rail (with OBOR) is significantly higher than by sea.

Neshant · Post by **Neshant** » 14 May 2017 10:16

Countries in the 'hood are too small population wise to absorb boat loads of Made in China goods that are being produced in surplus.

If their credit bubble implodes, they will need to offload tons and tons of surplus capacity on the world for years on end.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 14 May 2017 10:28

I'm reading a lot of hyperbole about the big scale, scope ooh aah about OBOR. Same thing that I read about string of pearls. In fact at a time when the US and USSR were top dogs - "Non alignment" was as big an idea in scope and scale - and all this within living memory of many people. Non aligned movement went "thusssssss..."

Another oooh aaah scope and scale thing was "SEATO" - this time by Amreeka. That also went thusss... Yet another oohaahscopescale was CENTO or Baghdada pact. Also thusss...

Need to see how far this goes.. just sayin

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 14 May 2017 10:46

India to skip B&R Forum - Suhasini Haidar, The Hindu

India will be absent from China’s Belt and Road Initiative (B&RI) Forum beginning Sunday, the government said on Saturday. The External Affairs Ministry explained that while the government supported connectivity projects, they “must be pursued in a manner that respects sovereignty and territorial integrity”. India has objected to the $46-billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor part of the B&RI, as it includes projects in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK).

“The international community is well aware of India’s position. No country can accept a project that ignores its core concerns on sovereignty and territorial integrity,” the Ministry spokesperson said on Saturday night, just hours ahead of the Forum’s inauguration.

All neighbours of India, except Bhutan, will have senior-level participation at the forum. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde and World Bank President Kim Yong will be present as China unveils plans for infrastructure projects estimated at $500 billion across Asia and Europe.

Debt trap

In a dig at China’s high-interest project loans in the region, which India believes will lead to a “debt trap” in countries such as Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, the spokesperson added that the B&RI must pursue “principles of financial responsibility to avoid projects that would create unsustainable debt burden for communities; balanced ecological and environmental protection and preservation standards; transparent assessment of project costs”.

According to experts, India’s absence from the forum will be seen as a major snub to China, that is pitching it as a “prestige event” to which it has confirmed 110 official delegations and 29 heads of state and government.

“Attendance doesn’t mean endorsement,” said expert Ravi Bhoothalingam at the Institute for China Studies, “But absence is a rebuff. Sending a representative at an appropriate level is what both the U.S. and Japan have chosen as their response,” he added.

Both the U.S. and Japan are not signatories to the Belt and Road initiative, but will be represented by senior advisers to President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe respectively.

Market demands

Hailing the decision by India not to participate unless China took its territorial concerns over PoK seriously, former Foreign Secretary Kanwal Sibal said India didn’t need to worry about losing out.

“China needs the Indian market more than India needs Chinese investment. The Chinese should stop preening about their economic success which is real but not take it to mean that the world will fall at their feet,” Mr. Sibal said.

The Chinese government had doubled efforts to convince India to join. In a speech last week, the Chinese Ambassador to India Luo Zhaohui suggested a four-step initiative to repair ties damaged over differences on the CPEC, entry to the Nuclear Suppliers Group and UN designation for JeM chief Masood Azhar, and even suggesting that China could consider changing the name of the corridor through Pakistan. However, subsequently, the reference in the Ambassador’s speech was deleted online after Pakistan protested.

chola · Post by **chola** » 14 May 2017 10:50

shiv wrote:I'm reading a lot of hyperbole about the big scale, scope ooh aah about OBOR. Same thing that I read about string of pearls. In fact at a time when the US and USSR were top dogs - "Non alignment" was as big an idea in scope and scale - and all this within living memory of many people. Non aligned movement went "thusssssss..."

Another oooh aaah scope and scale thing was "SEATO" - this time by Amreeka. That also went thusss... Yet another oohaahscopescale was CENTO or Baghdada pact. Also thusss...

Need to see how far this goes.. just sayin

SEATO and CENTO were US-backed alliances that worked well enough for their times.

String of pearls was nothing but dhoti-shivering. I could not find one port that based a cheen ship or troops. Not port calls but an actual home base like Yokohama is for US CVNs or Okinawa is for US Marines. Making up an imaginary thing and then knocking it over for having no substance is rather pointless.

Non-alignment was a club of the poor and turd world. There were no resources to do anything in that one.

This is a trillion dollars by one country to expand its infrastructure footprint across Eurasia. And they have been explicit about it and will have 130 nations ohing and ahing in Beijing over this so however it turns out in the future, I'm still impressed by the scope of their vision.

What's more, it is a grand vision involving moola not led by some gora so even more impressive from my view.

But this is just the personal opinion of someone with a chini wife, after all.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 14 May 2017 10:57

Ndtv excerpt.

Among the 3.4 billion RMB ($493 million) in deals Sharif's office said were signed on Saturday were:

* Two cooperation agreements worth 2.3 billion RMB ($333 million) for an airport in the southwestern town of Gwadar, site of a deep-water port that is to provide an outlet to the Arabian Sea from the far western Chinese province of Xinjiang.

* Establishment of the Havelian Dry Port in Pakistan.

* Agreement on economic and technical cooperation (1.1 billion RMB) ($160 million) for the East Bay Expressway linking Gwadar to Pakistan's existing highway system.

China says that between 2014 and 2016, its businesses signed projects worth $304.9 billion in Belt and Road countries. Some of the projects could be in development for years.

Some countries are wary of the debt burden that the Chinese financing could create.

Pakistan, however, has expressed an optimistic view, with the government's chief economist telling Reuters this week that the repayments will peak at around $5 billion in 2022, but will be more than offset by transit fees charged on the new transport corridor

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 14 May 2017 11:08

Singha wrote:Ndtv excerpt.

..... that the repayments will peak at around $5 billion in 2022, but will be more than offset by transit fees charged on the new transport corridor

This is all small change. Additionally, I very much doubt there will be much economic activity on this corridor. Pawkees are seeing their usual wet dreams.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 14 May 2017 11:18

For what it is worth, India may consider a global PR exercise that clearly demonstrates and strengthens its rapidly expanding links with the rest of the world, especially the technologically advanced nations. We are hardly "isolated" except in the minds of the Chinese commie dorks.

We do not need to have a road between India and Europe/USA/Japan for these partnerships to prosper.

We do not need to join any Chinese schemes such as OBOR. We should highlight and pursue our own connectivity plans with Southeast Asia and the IOR.

At this point, we should be focused on attracting large amounts of 'meaningful' investment into India...not wasting resources on joining other countries' ill-conceived investment schemes. I don't think anybody else other than the Chinese will throw big money into OBOR. Investment opportunities in places like India would be far more reliable than sinking money into "silk road" or "string of pearls" fantasies.

Neela · Post by **Neela** » 14 May 2017 12:02

Pakistan, however, has expressed an optimistic view, with the government's chief economist telling Reuters this week that the repayments will peak at around $5 billion in 2022, but will be more than offset by transit fees charged on the new transport corridor

If enough goods dont pass through the corridor, Pakis will be unable to pay back the Chinis. Given state of Paki economy, they are very likely to fail This would mean long lease of territory will be their last resort. PoK lease to China is a possibility .
India raised the sovereignty issue today. It will be taken seriously. Will PoK will see more military defenses to protect infra to dissuade India? - CHinis arent going to let their infra come under threat and will ask Pakis to ensure security.

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 14 May 2017 12:07

What if pakis gift PoK to cheen just as they did a part of kashmir before? We need to act NOW and take back PoK.

-corrected.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 14 May 2017 12:43

Karthik S wrote:What if pakis gift PoK to India just as they did to part of kashmir? We need to act NOW and take back PoK.

Why not continue to wait for Pakis to gift PoK to India as we are doing now?

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 14 May 2017 13:39

KL Dubey wrote:
Singha wrote:Ndtv excerpt.

..... that the repayments will peak at around $5 billion in 2022, but will be more than offset by transit fees charged on the new transport corridor
This is all small change. Additionally, I very much doubt there will be much economic activity on this corridor. Pawkees are seeing their usual wet dreams.

I recall reading the *original* Reuters report where the *key* to this *progress* was based on some absurd maths/assumptions. At that time I didn't think much of it but now that folks are quoting numbers, here it is key passage with highlight ....
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-pakist ... 861GD?il=0

Nadeem Javaid, who advises Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's government and works closely on the CPEC programme, told Reuters that such fears are misplaced as Islamabad would earn vast fees from charging vehicles moving goods from and to China.

Javaid said the Gwadar-Xinjiang corridor should be operational from June next year, and Pakistan expects up to 4 percent of global trade to pass through it by 2020.

"The kind of toll tax, rental fees that the Pakistani system will gain is roughly $6-$8 billion a year," Javaid, chief economist at the Planning Ministry, said in an interview. "By 2020, I expect we will get this much momentum."

Compare CPEC traffic projection with India's share of the total global trade, the number of ports needed to handle the same and the number of roads leading up to those ports and compare those numbers with Gwadar/CPEC stats and make your own judgement.

The Bakis apduls are being sold a lemon.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 14 May 2017 14:11

China spends its money in building infrastructure around the world where America spends its money on zillion bases and a million regime change wars. From that perspective, an economy of the size of China will not feel the pinch of OBOR executed over several years even if it is money down the drain.

The US had the influence it had over the world because it was by far the most powerful, richest and advanced country. Along with its western european allies it was even more powerful. And the US humoured its allies by bearing the burden of the alliance like huge negative balances of trade, spending billions of its own money in 'defending the free world'. 'Leader of the free world' tag does not come cheap.

At the outset, china's OBOR Is to find a market for its goods. Perhaps, one day it will graduate to being a more equitable trade partner. But if it plans to use OBOR to dump its wares on the rest of the world, it will meet resistance.

A rising America had rich and willing partners to let it be numero uno. China faces the incumbent USA, a wary Japan and the next big thing India at its heels. It will not have the space and leeway that USA had.

There was a discussion on RS TV on Chinese investments in Sri Lanka and how India too is engaging Sri Lanka but in a different way. They said Sri Lanka (and other countries) are playing India against China to garner maximum investment and India refuses to fall for it. The same way Iran is doing it now. After promising an oil field for us, its now inviting the chinese to bid too - that after India lobbied for lifting sanctions against it. India is saying no dice and is delaying it's commitment to Chabahar.

Peregrine · Post by **Peregrine** » 14 May 2017 14:17

Singha wrote:Ndtv excerpt.
Pakistan, however, has expressed an optimistic view, with the government's chief economist telling Reuters this week that the repayments will peak at around $5 billion in 2022, but will be more than offset by transit fees charged on the new transport corridor

Singha Ji :
Chinese build the CPEC, use Chinese Labour, Chinese Material alternatively buys Pakistani Material with Chinese Money etc. etc. so what is this palava about "Transit Fees?"
Cheers

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 14 May 2017 14:22

Karthik S wrote:What if pakis gift PoK to cheen just as they did a part of kashmir before? We need to act NOW and take back PoK.

-corrected.

That is not going to happen. Bakistan will be finished that day.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 14 May 2017 14:33

Who/What is to stop the countries that OBOR passes through to use it to build their own factories and export their goods and block the chinese goods? What is china going to do? Bomb them?

Xinjiang is a vast area with 21 million population. I wonder if OBOR that passes through Xinjiang is just an attempt to make it more sustainable for more Hans to move there and secure it demographically.

kit · Post by **kit** » 14 May 2017 14:49

As is the case expect increased pakistani export of jihadis through six lane highways to China and "deep water ports" to all of west asia

.. they do have to repay their debts dont they

.. maybe India should just close the border with pakistan to "help" CPEC and OBORe

kit · Post by **kit** » 14 May 2017 14:52

Peregrine wrote:
Singha wrote:Ndtv excerpt.
Pakistan, however, has expressed an optimistic view, with the government's chief economist telling Reuters this week that the repayments will peak at around $5 billion in 2022, but will be more than offset by transit fees charged on the new transport corridor
Singha Ji :
Chinese build the CPEC, use Chinese Labour, Chinese Material alternatively buys Pakistani Material with Chinese Money etc. etc. so what is this palava about "Transit Fees?"
Cheers

very good idea

.. we should help by closing the pakistani border.. let the chinese pay their transit fee for their trinkets exported to no where

abhijatT · Post by **abhijatT** » 14 May 2017 15:08

Shiv ji , so key takeaway from your post , regarding my assertion of "deploying troops" , is that logistic chain which in turns requires friendly relation with local population which in turn may require some amount equitable distribution of economic profit. Fair enough point.

But, can this equitable distribution happens , which in turn would depends on the polity of these countries , which look bleak on this front , so no "deploying troops " as of now , so no more dhoti-shivering from my side.

Another random thought ,

To make this corridor work , as in transportation infrastructure part only, would require one group in each of these countries to always favour chinese. So , more the partisan polity in these countries , the merrier it is for chinese interest. But, to do so would in a way require consolidation of different ethnic group in two(or one) competing 'identity' , so that within a group all favours and agrees to be a chinese proxy . Also, this identity group need to be large ,in term of percentage of population it encompass within itself .

So , what can this identity be ? Religion , language or other ?

I think it would be religion , as maximum number of people can associate with it. But it would be more of the form of radical islam (oxymoron ?) i.e wahabist type. Also, returning youth from their field trip of syria would surely be purposeful addendum to it.

Why religion ? As evident from pakis how religion can turn one into robots deprived of their self interest in search for hoors.

So chinese would get new slaves and islamist would gain new lord to support their ummah project .

Eventually , it would lead to dissolution of national boundaries in this region , and become part of ummah dream but with chinese supervisor.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 14 May 2017 15:11

Meanwhile, inaugurating the BARF, Xi Jinping loftily proclaims verssion 2.0 of the new worldwide Panchsheel, namely that

All countries should respect each other's sovereignty - PTI

Chinese President Xi Jinping today said all countries should respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity, as he inaugurated the high profile Belt and Road forum boycotted by India due to concerns relating to a controversial economic corridor traversing through PoK.

In his opening address outlining China's vision, 63- year-old Xi referred to ancient Silk Road and spoke about significance of various civilisations, including the "Indus and Ganges civilisations".

Without referring to India's objections to the China- Pakistan-Economic Corridor (CPEC), Xi said, "all countries should respect each other's sovereignty, dignity and territorial integrity, each other's development paths and social systems, and each other's core interests and major concerns."

India skipped the meeting due to its sovereignty concerns over the USD 50 billion CPEC, which goes through Pakistan- occupied Kashmir (PoK). However, few Indian scholars attended the opening session of the two-day "Belt and Road" conference in Beijing that brought together leaders from 29 countries.

Xi said the Belt and Road initiative is "a project of the century" that will benefit people across the world.

Denying any attempts to form a "small group" of nations taking part in the Belt and Road initiative of which CPEC is a part, Xi said China plans to build it as a road to peace and link his country to much of Asia, Europe and Africa.

"Pursuing the B and Road initiative, China has no intention to form a small group detrimental to stability," he was quoted as saying by the state-run Xinhua news agency.

The B and Road initiative should be built into a road for peace, as the pursuit of the initiative requires a peaceful and stable environment, Xi told the forum attended by 29 heads of state and government besides representatives of over 100 countries and international organisations.

Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, his Sri Lankan counterpart Ranil Wickramasinge, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan were among world leaders who attended the high-profile meeting.

The United States sent a delegation led by Matt Pottinger, special assistant to the president and senior director for Asia at the National Security Council.

Other delegates include officials, entrepreneurs and financiers from over 130 countries, and representatives of key international organisations such as UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, World Bank President Jim Yong Kim, and International Monetary Fund Director Christine Lagarde.

"The ancient silk routes thrived in times of peace, but lost vigour in times of war. The pursuit of the Belt and Road initiative requires a peaceful and stable environment," Xi said.

"We should foster a new type of international relations featuring win-win cooperation; and we should forge partnerships of dialogue with no confrontation and of friendship rather than alliance," he said.

Xi announced China would contribute an additional USD 14.5 billion to the Silk Road Fund, which was set up in 2014 to finance infrastructure projects, taking it to USD 55 billion and USD 8.75 billion financial assistance to the countries taking part in his Belt and Road initiative aimed at expanding China's influence and global connectivity.

In his speech, Xi said Belt and Road initiative focuses on the Asian, European and African countries, but is also open to all other countries.

He said China will provide assistance worth 60 billion yuan (USD 8.7 billion) to developing nations and international organizations participating in the Belt and Road initiative to launch more projects to improve people's well-being.

China will set up 50 joint laboratories with countries participating in the Belt and Road initiative to enhance cooperation on innovation, he said.

Also China will encourage financial institutions to conduct overseas RMB fund business with an estimated amount of 300 billion yuan (about USD 43.5 billion), Xi said.

Named after the historic Silk Road, the Belt and Road initiative was proposed by Xi in 2013 to chart out new territories for international cooperation.

"Spanning thousands of miles and years, the ancient silk routes embody the spirit of peace and cooperation, openness and inclusiveness, mutual learning and mutual benefit," Xi told an audience of more than 1,500 from across the globe.

"The Silk Road spirit has become a great heritage of human civilization," he said.

The B&R includes a maze of roads and port projects. While CPEC is highlighted as "flagship project", the B&R included Bangladesh, China, India and Myanmar (BCIM) Economic Corridor, New Eurasian Land Bridge, China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor, China-Indochina Peninsula Economic Corridor and 21st century Maritime Silk Road.

The speech by Xi is the usual 'pious' talk by the Chinese to lull somebody into complacency. How does the 'spirit of win-win cooperation' square up with Chinese aggression in Tibet, India, and Indo-China Sea?

arun · Post by **arun** » 14 May 2017 16:27

Full text of response of our Ministry of Externall Affairs, Gopal Baglay, to a query on India’s participation in the Peoples Republic of China sponsored BARF aka the Belt and Road Forum. Being a part of One Belt, One Road (OBOR) aka Belt and Road Initiative, China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is also mentioned.

Kudo’s to our Government for not participating in OBOR/BRI/BARF/CPEC which violates our terrotorial sovereignity. India also has no need to contribute to PRC aggrandizement and neo-colonial profiteering from PRC project and equipment exports under the OBOR/BRI/BARF/CPEC schemes. Kudos also for our Government pointing out that promoting connectivity is not a PRC monopoly and that India plays its own role in promoting connectivity.

Nice touch to imply that OBOR/BRI/CPEC does not follow recognized international norms, follow good governance, rule of law, openness, transparency and equality. Nice touch to also imply that OBOR/BRI/CPEC does not follow principles of financial responsibility to avoid projects that would create unsustainable debt burden for communities; balanced ecological and environmental protection and preservation standards; transparent assessment of project costs; and skill and technology transfer to help long term running and maintenance of the assets created by local communities. And finally that OBOR/BRI/CPEC does not respect India’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Official Spokesperson's response to a query on participation of India in OBOR/BRI Forum

May 13, 2017

Responding to a query on participation of India in OBOR/BRI Forum, the official spokesperson said:

We had received formal invitation to participate in the 6 separate forums that China is organizing as part of the Belt and Road Forum being held in Beijing on May 14-16, 2017.

We are of firm belief that connectivity initiatives must be based on universally recognized international norms, good governance, rule of law, openness, transparency and equality. Connectivity initiatives must follow principles of financial responsibility to avoid projects that would create unsustainable debt burden for communities; balanced ecological and environmental protection and preservation standards; transparent assessment of project costs; and skill and technology transfer to help long term running and maintenance of the assets created by local communities. Connectivity projects must be pursued in a manner that respects sovereignty and territorial integrity.

India shares international community’s desire for enhancing physical connectivity and believes that it should bring greater economic benefits to all in an equitable and balanced manner. We are working with many countries and international institutions in support of physical and digital connectivity in our own immediate and near neighbourhood.

Expansion and strengthening of connectivity is an integral part of India’s economic and diplomatic initiatives. Under the ‘Act East’ policy, we are pursuing the Trilateral Highway project; under our ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy we are developing multimodal linkages with Myanmar and Bangladesh; under our ‘Go West’ strategy, we are engaged with Iran on Chabahar Port and with Iran and other partners in Central Asia on International North South Transport Corridor. BBIN initiative is aimed at enhancing logistics efficiencies in South Asian region. We are also actively considering acceding to TIR Convention.

Guided by our principled position in the matter, we have been urging China to engage in a meaningful dialogue on its connectivity initiative, ‘One Belt, One Road’ which was later renamed as ‘Belt and Road Initiative’. We are awaiting a positive response from the Chinese side.

Regarding the so-called ‘China-Pakistan Economic Corridor’, which is being projected as the flagship project of the BRI/OBOR, the international community is well aware of India’s position. No country can accept a project that ignores its core concerns on sovereignty and territorial integrity.

New Delhi
13 May 2017

From our MEA website:

Official Spokesperson's response to a query on participation of India in OBOR/BRI Forum