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OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby yensoy » 15 May 2017 09:32

Xinjiang people aren't into fish. Han people are, they will travel to any corner of the world for seafood. Of course the fish is destined for the dinner plate of Hans in Xinjiang - probably a govt subsidized bonus to keep them happy and less homesick. Fish can also be (relatively easily & cheaply) flown into Xinjiang - entire airlines have been built around the fish trade (e.g. Icelandair).

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Prem » 15 May 2017 09:34

C-PECKER plan revealed

The plan envisages a deep and broad based penetration of most sectors of Pakistan’s economy as well as its society by Chinese enterprises and culture. :D Its scope has no precedent in Pakistan’s history in terms of how far it opens up the domestic economy to participation by foreign enterprises. In some areas the plan seeks to build on a market presence already established by Chinese enterprises, eg Haier in household appliances, ChinaMobile and Huawei in telecommunications and China Metallurgical Group Corporation (MCC) in mining and minerals.


https://www.dawn.com/news/1333101/exclu ... n-revealed
Last edited by Prem on 16 May 2017 02:33, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby SSridhar » 15 May 2017 09:48

Kashi wrote:That would be far less that Musharraf was claiming that Pakis would earn in transit from an IPI pipeline..

Because Musharraf wanted to charge four times the fees as a special case for India!

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Deans » 15 May 2017 09:49

shiv wrote:This brings me to the idea that while OBOR is more ambitious than CPEC - the sea routes planned for the "one road" part of OBOR seem like a hedge against failure of CPEC. Whether China or China admirers like it of not the Khunjerab pass area is never going to be an all-weather all year road. After that CPEC has to go via Gilgit - to be reoccupied by India, and via Baluchistan. Note that while Chinese workers will work on the project the Pakistan army will have to protect he workers. CPEC itself looks to to me like a failing enterprise. That does not mean that India should not help it fail - but the portents are there. If CPEC was to be an unalloyed success then OBOR itself can take a different route - using more of CPEC and less of the northern route. Just my thoughts


It is actually in our interest to let the CPEC projects be completed - albeit after delays & cost overruns due to our protests/ sabotage etc. The only products likely to be transported through the highways are Chinese products being dumped on Pakistan, destroying whatever is left of Pak industry. The product that will most likely be transported to Gwadar, is cotton, grown in Xinjiang, which will be processed in tax free Chinese run export zones in Gwadar which will directly compete with Pakistani exports (57% of Pak exports are cotton textiles). That is what is happening in Sri Lanka, when Sri Lanka found itself unable to repay Chinese loans - the risk of Pak defaulting is far higher. More money for the CPEC dramatically increases both the risk to the Pak economy (of a meltdown) and therefore the risk that Pak will not pay back. If the OBOR partner countries face the same problem and there are defaults across the board, Eleven will be in serious trouble. I see OBOR/CPEC being high risk gambles for the Chinese and Eleven and the politburo are hoping they would have retired by the time the bubble bursts.
Last edited by Deans on 15 May 2017 10:01, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Deans » 15 May 2017 10:00

SSridhar wrote:
pankajs wrote:Compare CPEC traffic projection with India's share of the total global trade, the number of ports needed to handle the same and the number of roads leading up to those ports and compare those numbers with Gwadar/CPEC stats and make your own judgement.

The Bakis apduls are being sold a lemon.

One of the contributors that Pakistan expects for the 'transit fee' is from the oil & gas that would reach Xinjiang from Gwadar. It expects that a significant proportion of the o&g imports by China from Iraq, Iran, West Asia and Africa would be routed through Gwadar,


It is unviable for Oil to be transported to China from Gwadar - even for consumption in Central China (away from the oil consuming areas in Eastern China). The transport cost by sea is from West Asia to Central China, is several times cheaper than through Gwadar - google throws up enough credible analysis on this. That analysis is moot however, since China's biggest source of domestic oil is Xinjaing, which does not require imported oil.
There is no provision to transport gas under CPEC and in any case, Central Asian or Russian gas is far cheaper and pipelines to transport gas already exist.

P.S - The entire oil (truck) tanker fleet of Pakistan is unlikely to be able to handle the capacity of 1 supertanker. It is unlikely that these minor logistical details would bother GHQ Rawalpindi though.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby kmkraoind » 15 May 2017 10:19

For me, the enthusiasm shown by Chinese on OBOR project reminds me Germany eagerness on "Berlin Baghdad Railroad" prior to WWI. Both goals and sweet words are more or less similar.

I bet OBOR will either lead the world to WW-III through Cold War 2.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Singha » 15 May 2017 10:28

good pics of the avalanches. youtube videos make it seem like smooth cubbon road in blr :) a "weekend getaway" from Pindi to enjoy chinese food in hotan and urumqi.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby shiv » 15 May 2017 10:31

Over the years I have become cynical about the word "world war". The world wars were wars affecting the immediate world of westerners. It was the fact that we were a colony that we were involved in the so called "world wars". Once colonies died there have been massive wars but India and China have remained unaffected more or less - which means that 33% of the world's population were not directly affected "World war" will happen only if enough people choose to join the war or are forced to join a war as allies or colonies. Sunni Jihad is a "world war" - but no one from the blinkered west seems to understand

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby SSridhar » 15 May 2017 10:37

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor plan is OBOR flagship: Chinese President Xi Jinping

This is exactly what we have felt here for a long time as well, as to why China was hell bent on making a grand show of CPEC. This is another reason why China was using blandishments, coercion and everything else in-between to get India on board. Now, Xi himself has openly admitted to that.

BEIJING: Getting the One Belt One Road (OBOR) show on course here on Sunday, Chinese President Xi Jinping praised the $46 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) — which India has said violates it sovereignty — as its "flagship" project, while promising to respect the territorial integrity of different countries.

India is the only major country to refuse participation in the event, suggesting that the massive project is little more than a colonial enterprise, which would leave debt-ridden, broken communities in its wake.

China has said it would continue to try and persuade India to join the programme to build the connectivity infrastructure.

"China needs India's participation more than it needs the United States," David Kelly, director of geopolitics at Beijing-based consulting firm, China Policy, told news agencies.

"It does not serve China's image and strategic interests to establish linkages in distant places while being unable to mend fences in its neighbourhood," Kelly said, adding that India would not lose much by skipping the event.

"India's development pattern follows a different rhythm compared to China. India will continue to grow at its own pace regardless of whether it joins or not," he said.


India-China ties have been strained over Beijing repeatedly blocking New Delhi's bid for the Nuclear Suppliers Group, and Tibetan spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama's visit to Arunachal Pradesh, a region claimed by China.

Representatives of the United States and Germany did some plain speaking, reminding China of the need for maintaining transparency in project planning and giving equal opportunities to all stakeholders in the allocation of finance and purchase of machinery.

China has been blamed for supporting projects that provide business to Chinese companies and banks while side-lining other competitors.

Sunday's event showed China's eagerness to expand OBOR into a major trade and development initiative instead of restricting it to infrastructure construction. Xi offered funds for poverty eradication and health centres in developing countries besides allocating money for infrastructure construction.

Analysts said a major part of assistance would go to projects that provide construction and machinery supply opportunities to Chinese companies. OBOR, they said, is an economic stimulus for China's domestic economy as much as a quest for raising its international standing.

"We should jointly create an environment that will facilitate opening up and development, establish a fair, equitable and transparent system of international trade and investment rules," Xi said.

China will sign trade agreements with 30 countries during the two-day forum, and gradually expand it to cover 60 countries who are connected to the plan, Xi added.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Philip » 15 May 2017 11:49

Way back in the last century,when BRF was in its infancy,I made the prediction that in the early part of the 21st century we would see Chinese subs and naval forces in the IOR and a Chinese thrust by land to the Gulf through Pak. I based my predictions upon careful observation of Chinese activities in the region/IOR and when the dots were joined saw a pattern emerge.I was roundly ridiculed and sneered at. But it has all come to pass.How and why?

India should've been alive to this eventuality after the Karakorum Highway was built which gave China a land route to Pak as the first phase. Phase two was the massive road infrastructure set up in Tibet and the completion of the mainland-Tibet railway.However,this was viewed rather myopically as only China inproving its infrastructure in Tibet to keep India under pressure and to be able to supply Pak by land.The first revelation of the Chinese masterplan, The management of the Panama Canal came around the same time,a few eyes opened in surprise,but this was seen as a Chinese gambit for the Pacific and a means to watch USN assets move between the Pacific and Atlantic. Remember how drained the USN was in the pacific just before Pearl harbour,when some major assets were transferred to the Atlantic seaboard.

Then came the great China-Africa dialogue,with much cash being thrown to the leaders of modern Africa.This is when India sudddenly woke up.Africa had always been its sphere of influence with former colonies,who with India in the NAM movement,almost always supported Indian diplomatic initiatives in the UN,NAM and Commonwealth. Since then.we've seen China enter the IOR on a permanent naval basis in the IOR,Gwadar gifted by Pak to it and thus fulfilling my prophecy of the land route to the Gulf and oil cemented and part too through POK again a de-facto git to China by Pak .Ostensibly,the PLAN is in the IOR to "fight piracy"! What a sick joke.The Chinese are the mother of all pirates as we well know in Asian history. Anyway,Sri Lnaka was lost thanks to the UPA who slept while Rajapakse sold the family silver at Hambantota and Colombo too (Port City),though the latter project has been altered in concept. A Chinese naval base has emerged at Djibouti,at the entrance to the Red Sea close to Aden,vital for monitoring traffic from the Suez Canal,and another secret naval/air base is being built int he Maldives,land reclamation for an airstrip just as the Chinese did with the atolls in the Spratlys. Throwing money at the Malaysians saw it berth one of its subs there too not too long ago. Therefore,it is now evident except the "Blind men of Hindoostan" (remember that book?),how India has been encircled and in style. WE gifted away the opportunities in Sri Lanka and can't even say "boo to the Maldivian goose! Therefore,by our abdication of the role of dominant militryr power in the IOR,we've allowed the Chinese,with the help of their catamites like the Pakis.,to virtually steal parts of the region from under our noses.

When all this was going on where the "pundits" of the MEA? Hibernating in cooler climes in Foggy Bottom what? Hoping fpor Uncle Sam to sort out all our problems,like that infamous Baluchistan" faux pas by Snake-Oil Singh! The MEA has been a ministry of midgets,myopic to the extreme,and has deliberately kept out the armed froces in the formulation of foreign policy.In fact the time has come when our foreign policy should be dictated by strategic and military priorities rather than endless rounds of "jaw-jaw" which has only brought he prospect of "war-war" closer.

So unless the GOI/MEA read out the riot act to our smaller neighbours who are dangerously dallying with China,in a very short time we will have Chinese naval forces cheek by jowl with the IN in our very own backyard.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby SSridhar » 15 May 2017 11:53

Xi evokes Panchsheel as India skips meet - Atul Aneja, The Hindu

Just yesterday I had said that "Xi Jinping loftily proclaims version 2.0 of the new worldwide Panchsheel" and here is the report that he was actually referring to the Panchsheel ! The very reference to Panchsheel is an indication that the real intent of OBOR is very different from what PRC claims.

Chinese President Xi Jinping on Sunday proposed five principles of peaceful co-existence or Panchsheel — the brainchild of China, India and Myanmar in the 1950s — as the mantra for advancing the Belt and Road Initiative (B&RI), and as a vehicle for achieving sustainable globalisation.

Despite India’s decision to skip the two-day Belt and Road Forum (BRF), the once special relationship between New Delhi and Beijing echoed during the opening session of the conclave. In his keynote address, President Xi highlighted that China “will enhance friendship and cooperation with all countries in the world on the Belt and Road Initiative on the basis of the five principles of peaceful coexistence”.

He added: “We are ready to share the experience of development with other countries. We have no intention to interfere in other countries’ internal affairs, export our own social system or model of development, or impose our own will on others.”

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby SSridhar » 15 May 2017 11:57

Philip, completely agree with you.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Peregrine » 15 May 2017 14:26

Deans wrote:
SSridhar wrote:One of the contributors that Pakistan expects for the 'transit fee' is from the oil & gas that would reach Xinjiang from Gwadar. It expects that a significant proportion of the o&g imports by China from Iraq, Iran, West Asia and Africa would be routed through Gwadar,


It is unviable for Oil to be transported to China from Gwadar - even for consumption in Central China (away from the oil consuming areas in Eastern China). The transport cost by sea is from West Asia to Central China, is several times cheaper than through Gwadar - google throws up enough credible analysis on this. That analysis is moot however, since China's biggest source of domestic oil is Xinjaing, which does not require imported oil.
There is no provision to transport gas under CPEC and in any case, Central Asian or Russian gas is far cheaper and pipelines to transport gas already exist.

P.S - The entire oil (truck) tanker fleet of Pakistan is unlikely to be able to handle the capacity of 1 supertanker. It is unlikely that these minor logistical details would bother GHQ Rawalpindi though.
Deans Ji :
PNSC Tanker Fleet :

Pakistan National Shipping Corporation – Tanker Fleet – All Built 2003

1. Quetta - Summer Deadweight - 107,215 mt

2. Lahore - Summer Deadweight - 107,215 mt

3. Karachi - Summer Deadweight - 107,081 mt

4. Shalamar – Summer Deadweight - 105,315 mt

Total Deadweight – 426,629 mt. Present day VLCCs are of about 300,000 Deadweight.

Note : Chinese are most definitely not stupid and the Clapistanis are unfit to take the Chines for a ride unlike the USA and NATO Countriesd. To obviate the need of Malacca Straits they have built the Port of Kyaukpyu – 60 Miles South East of Sitwe (Old Name – Akyab). There are Crude and a Natural Gas Pipe Lines from Kyuakyu to Kunming.

With Oil And Gas Pipelines, China Takes A Shortcut Through Myanmar - Eric Meyer

Cheers Image
Last edited by Peregrine on 15 May 2017 14:40, edited 1 time in total.

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OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Peregrine » 15 May 2017 14:30


Deans
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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Deans » 15 May 2017 14:59

Peregrine wrote:PNSC Tanker Fleet :

Pakistan National Shipping Corporation – Tanker Fleet – All Built 2003

1. Quetta - Summer Deadweight - 107,215 mt

2. Lahore - Summer Deadweight - 107,215 mt

3. Karachi - Summer Deadweight - 107,081 mt

4. Shalamar – Summer Deadweight - 105,315 mt

Total Deadweight – 426,629 mt. Present day VLCCs are of about 300,000 Deadweight.


That's what I meant. Compared to the Pak ship tanker capacity of 420,000 tns, the Shipping corporation of India (which is just one of the
Indian companies shipping oil, has a capacity, if my memory is right, of approx 3.5 million tns, which includes 5 VLCC's. When Pak never has to deal with more than 100,000 Tns of oil being unloaded at a time, how do they find the transportation to send the contents of a VLCC up the CPEC, to China - since there are no pipelines or trains envisaged. Pak's state run oil transport company has some 9,000 odd truck tankers.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby SSridhar » 15 May 2017 15:23


From the above,
"As regards the potential debt burden, Pakistan's repayments will peak at around $5 billion in 2022, but this will be offset by transit fees charged in the CPEC," another media report said.

:rotfl:

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Patni » 15 May 2017 16:18

SSridhar wrote:

From the above,
"As regards the potential debt burden, Pakistan's repayments will peak at around $5 billion in 2022, but this will be offset by transit fees charged in the CPEC," another media report said.

:rotfl:


Does it mean that Pakis basically handed over land for nothing? the bhooka nangas can line up on both side of CPEC route and oggle at goods vooshing by as china will ensure only that much transit fee is paid as much is needed for debt servicing of china loans LOL!! I wonder if they have mentioned it in agreement that they will only pay transit fee after suitable deduction for debt servicing only!!! china really playing role of 50's pathani moneylenders to a tee :rotfl:

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby shiv » 15 May 2017 16:56

CPEC Masterplan for Pakistan.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1333101/exclu ... n-revealed
Good one. Read it all

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby A_Gupta » 15 May 2017 17:06

From November 2016: on Gwadar:
http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/gwa ... a-limited/

Gwadar’s inner port is currently dredged to 11.5 meters, a depth that is eclipsed by “major international ports, like the Shanghai Port, which generally have a water depth of 14 to 15 meters and are compatible with heavy loaded ships that carry hundreds of thousands of tons of goods,” Wu Minghua, a Shanghai-based independent shipping industry analyst, told the Global Times on Wednesday, noting that the vessels docked in the Gwadar Port are only able to carry cargo weighing less than 100,000 tons.

With an expected handling capacity of 1 million tons in 2017, it is better to describe the port as “medium-sized,” Wu noted. Traffic at large ports generally averages 600 million tons per year.

Additionally, the port would not be able to handle China’s demand for petroleum imports. In 2015, the country’s total crude oil imports stood at 335.5 million tons, according to China’s General Administration of Customs, 310 times the handling capacity of Gwadar Port.

Against this backdrop, “Gwadar will not become China’s main trade hub with Persian Gulf countries, not to mention serve as an alternative route to the Malacca Straits,” Wu said.


In addition to the port, China also plans to build pipelines from Gwadar to Kashi, Northwest China’s Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, for the export of crude, the Nation reported.

The proposed construction hasn’t started yet, and “will not likely take place” due to the high cost and complicated geographic conditions, Mei Xinyu, a research fellow at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation under the Ministry of Commerce, told the Global Times on Wednesday.

Such pipelines would need to climb the Karakorum mountain range with an altitude of 5,000 to 6,000 meters, where temperature fall as low as -30 C and earthquakes also happen frequently, Mei said, noting “the pipelines need extra heating and insulating equipment as well as high-power pumping stations.”

But those expenses will drive up the cost. Mei estimates that the cost of delivering oil through the Gwadar-Kashi pipeline is about 16.6 times more than shipping from Saudi Arabia to a port in Ningbo, East China’s Zhejiang Province.

“For the same amount of investment, it’s more economically viable to build very large crude carriers than oil pipelines,” Mei said.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Karthik S » 15 May 2017 17:10

shiv wrote:CPEC Masterplan for Pakistan.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1333101/exclu ... n-revealed
Good one. Read it all


Chinese are confident that the pakis will have enough water resources (read it indus water) to facilitate their plans on agriculture. Even finished granite products require good amount water to cut the rock.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby A_Gupta » 15 May 2017 17:10

I didn't know Chinese companies owned 40% of the Pakistan Stock Exchange.
https://www.ft.com/content/6fa73c2a-33f ... beb0903fa3

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby A_Gupta » 15 May 2017 17:20

Just FYI, Karachi port handles about 26 million tons of cargo per year, with current berth occupancy rate of 48% (sources via Google search). Gwadar's current capacity is around 1 million tons. For comparison purposes Mumbai handled 63 million tons, and Shanghai 514 million tons.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby pankajs » 15 May 2017 17:32

Patni wrote:Does it mean that Pakis basically handed over land for nothing? the bhooka nangas can line up on both side of CPEC route and oggle at goods vooshing by as china will ensure only that much transit fee is paid as much is needed for debt servicing of china loans LOL!! I wonder if they have mentioned it in agreement that they will only pay transit fee after suitable deduction for debt servicing only!!! china really playing role of 50's pathani moneylenders to a tee :rotfl:

Bhell .... folks on this board still don't grasp the han mindset especially of the current Chinese regime.

They will pay only such money as is necessary for the repair and upkeep of the roads/port/etc and not a penny more. There will be some cut for the Baki military and some for the politicos but that will be via a separate arrangement.

The bakis will have to pony up the debt repayment amount from their own budget. In case the Bakis are unable to pay/repay the hans will make a play for control like in Sri Lanka.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby A_Gupta » 15 May 2017 17:42

Per this:
http://trtapakistan.org/wp-content/uplo ... _final.pdf
Pakistan truck freight rates might average as much as $0.03 per ton-kilometer (other estimates are lower). One ton the length of the CPEC highway of 2200 kilometers would cost (mind you, total freight cost, no transit fees) USD 66. Be generous and say USD 70. A freight of 100 million tons per year would cost USD 7 billion in total freight costs. If the Pakistani government could impose a 10% transit fee on that, it would come to USD $700 million per year. FYI, 100 million tons is 3.8 times Karachi port's current tonnage, and 100 times Gwadar's current capacity.

Pakistani dreamers see Gwadar as handling 350 million tons of traffic per year (e.g.,
http://moderndiplomacy.eu/index.php?opt ... Itemid=490 )

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby nam » 15 May 2017 17:49

shiv wrote:CPEC Masterplan for Pakistan.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1333101/exclu ... n-revealed
Good one. Read it all


Looks like Chinese want to use Pakis as the food source for their Xinjang and Tibet province.

It is certain now that Pakistan will be made a colony with PLA/PLAN based in Gwadar. If the Chinese wanted to use the port for trade, they would have invested in Karachi.Probably PA(+PLA) deployed in PoK will be used to outflank us in the Askai Chin. Technically China is a "locked" country. Having major deployment in Pakistan forces US to deploy in Arabian sea as well. Plus gives the Chinese their version of "strategic depth."

I am also wondering if the population of Xinjang province will be pushed in to PoK & Afghanistan, solving any "holy war" problems.

In return PA will in return will get tons of money and arms. To continue their fight against us. Any territorial gain by Pakistan will be a proxy gain for the Chinese.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby nam » 15 May 2017 18:01

SSridhar wrote:
"As regards the potential debt burden, Pakistan's repayments will peak at around $5 billion in 2022, but this will be offset by transit fees charged in the CPEC," another media report said.

:rotfl:


The Chinese are asking Pakis to pay for the privilege of being it's colony!

This transit fee thing is nonsense. Why would China transport goods from west when it's major population is in east? And when the route is closed during winter! :D

They desperately want India to be part of this scam, to prevent any disruption to this investment.

They are trying to use the Greece & Turkey trick.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby SSridhar » 15 May 2017 18:02

shiv wrote:CPEC Masterplan for Pakistan.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1333101/exclu ... n-revealed
Good one. Read it all

Shiv, thanks for the link.

This is a breathtakingly audacious project to take over a large country without shedding a drop of blood or incurring financial expenses and denuding it.

Pakistan, in its blind obsession with India, has agreed to the complete colonization of itself hoping that somewhere along the line, China will wage a war with India and punish it. Or, even more foolishly they think that under a Chinese umbrella, they can wage even more blatant jihad or even a war with India with China performing a pincer attack, angered by India’s destruction of its investments. We must put paid to all these false assumptions as early as possible in the project.

Key revelations from the above document for the benefit of forummers:

  • thousands of acres of agricultural land will be leased out to Chinese enterprises to set up “demonstration projects” in areas ranging from seed varieties to irrigation technology. The complete chain, from provision of seeds and other inputs, like fertiliser, credit and pesticides, Chinese enterprises will also operate their own farms, processing facilities for fruits and vegetables and grain. Logistics companies will operate a large storage and transportation system for agrarian produce, will pass into Chinese hands. Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps {the semi-military XPCC} to bring mechanization as well as scientific technique in livestock breeding, development of hybrid varieties and precision irrigation to Pakistan. Meat, milk, grain, cotton & vegetable processing units, cold storages,logistics, cattle-breeding . . . nothing is left. In each field, Chinese enterprises will play the lead role.
  • A full system of monitoring and surveillance will be built in cities from Peshawar to Karachi, with 24 hour video recordings on roads and busy marketplaces for law and order. I expect China to control the surveillance & monitoring and setup listening posts on India
  • terrestrial distribution of broadcast TV, which will cooperate with Chinese media in the “dissemination of Chinese culture further enhancing mutual understanding between the two peoples and the traditional friendship between the two countries.”. Cultural invasion of the highest order
  • textiles and garments, cement and building materials, fertiliser and agricultural technologies (among others) it calls for building the infrastructure and a supporting policy environment to facilitate fresh entry. preferences need to be extended are listed in the plan as “land, tax, logistics and services” as well as land price, “enterprise income tax, tariff reduction and exemption and sales tax rate.” {China is hijacking even policy-making powers of the Pakistani government that would make Chinese companies to completely over-run traditionally strong Pakistani industries. In short, complete emasculation of Pakistan.}
  • China will “[s]trengthen the safety cooperation with key countries, regions and international organizations, jointly prevent and crack down on terrorist acts that endanger the safety of Chinese overseas enterprises and their staff.”
  • The western and northwestern zone, covering most of Balochistan and KP province, is marked for mineral extraction, with potential in chrome ore, “gold reserves hold a considerable potential, but are still at the exploration stage”, and diamonds. One big mineral product that the plan discusses is marble.
  • The central zone is marked for textiles, household appliances and cement.
  • For the southern zone, the plan recommends that “Pakistan develop petrochemical, iron and steel, harbor industry, engineering machinery, trade processing and auto and auto parts (assembly)”
  • The plan shows great interest in the textiles industry in particular, but the interest is focused largely on yarn and coarse cloth. The reason, as the plan lays out, is that in Xinjiang the textile industry has already attained higher levels of productivity. Therefore, “China can make the most of the Pakistani market in cheap raw materials to develop the textiles & garments industry and help soak up surplus labor forces in Kashgar”. The ensuing strategy is described cryptically as the principle of “introducing foreign capital and establishing domestic connections as a crossover of West and East".
  • It speaks of a long belt of coastal enjoyment industry :D that includes yacht wharfs, cruise homeports, nightlife, city parks, public squares, theaters, golf courses and spas, hot spring hotels and water sports. The belt will run from Keti Bunder to Jiwani. Wow. What happens to the mard-e-momin? Will the Fazlur Rehmans, Hafeez Saeeds, Masood Azhars, Jamaat-e-Islamists, Hizb-ut-Tahrirs, LeJ types and various similar outfits approve and allow this in the land of the Salafists/Wahhabists/Deobandis and Ahl-e-Hadiths? The Chinese seem determined to completely violate the "Land of the Purest". At this rate, we may even welcome it !!
  • it notes that Pakistan’s economy cannot absorb FDI much above $2 billion per year without giving rise to stresses in its economy. “It is recommended that China’s maximum annual direct investment in Pakistan should be around US$1 billion.” What?
  • The document is very clear on this: “The cooperation with Pakistan in the monetary and financial areas aims to serve China’s diplomatic strategy.”
  • DAWN's correct conclusion: But the entry of Chinese firms will not be limited to the CPEC framework alone, as the recent acquisition of the Pakistan Stock Exchange, and the impending acquisition of K Electric demonstrate. In fact, CPEC is only the opening of the door. What comes through once that door has been opened is difficult to forecast.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby nam » 15 May 2017 18:23

SSridhar wrote:
[*] It speaks of a long belt of coastal enjoyment industry


So Pakis are going to be the center of "world's oldest profession" for the Chinese tuckers! :D

First Americans, then Saudis and now Chinese. It can only be Allah's beherbany, for such a demand from all corners of the world.

I support what Chinese are doing in Pakiland. At the same time, we should remind Pakis that it is the land of Islam, hence it requires more Islam.

It will be fun to watch the Chinese get sucked in to a "holy war"

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby pankajs » 15 May 2017 18:32

shiv wrote:CPEC Masterplan for Pakistan.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1333101/exclu ... n-revealed
Good one. Read it all

Too long for me so I went to the conclusion and there are 2 points that stood out.
Conclusion

It is not clear how much of the plan will be earnestly followed up and how much is there simply to evince interest from the Pakistani side.
....
Gwadar receives passing mention as an economic prospect, mainly for its capacity to serve as a port of exit for minerals from Balochistan and Afghanistan, and as an entreport for wider trade in the greater Indian Ocean zone from South Africa to New Zealand. There is no mention of China’s external trade being routed through Gwadar. Judging from their conversations with the government, it appears that the Pakistanis are pushing the Chinese to begin work on the Gwadar International Airport, whereas the Chinese are pushing for early completion of the Eastbay Expressway.

BTW, import of food is import of water. Makes sense for China to make a grab for agri land.
Also, China is building a surveillance state in Bakistan which will be controlled from China using the Baki army. Again makes sense given how much they say they are planning to invest.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Karthik S » 15 May 2017 18:46

Indeed, although china is 3 times larger than India, we have more arable land than them.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby yensoy » 15 May 2017 19:05

pankajs wrote:BTW, import of food is import of water. Makes sense for China to make a grab for agri land.
Also, China is building a surveillance state in Bakistan which will be controlled from China using the Baki army. Again makes sense given how much they say they are planning to invest.


This is when we should start seriously examining designs to drain out the IWT3 which belong to us. We can ask the Chinese to build it for cheap and say that this is how we are supporting OBOR.

Karthik S wrote:Indeed, although china is 3 times larger than India, we have more arable land than them.

That, coupled with a meat-heavy diet (especially with the younger folks for whom rice/cereals are infra dig) means a huge demand for crops, much more than the average Indian. But the Chinese have bought thousands of square kilometers of farmland in Brazil and parts of Africa.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby ldev » 15 May 2017 19:19

SSridhar wrote:
shiv wrote:CPEC Masterplan for Pakistan.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1333101/exclu ... n-revealed
Good one. Read it all

Shiv, thanks for the link.

This is a breathtakingly audacious project to take over a large country without shedding a drop of blood or incurring financial expenses and denuding it.



Was reading about some off the record remarks made in jest, but maybe not in jest by some Chinese officials at the recent Trump-Xi meeting in Mar-a-Lago where the Chinese official told the US official, "You guys invade and take over a country, our way is to just buy a country".!!

The Chinese are nothing but innovative. They expanded their real economy and then built up a super-charged financial sector credit volume on that real economy base. And now without really going for full convertibility for all citizens they have parlayed the size of that domestic credit sector into the ability to either extend credit in yuan globally or for those countries who prefer to be bought by the Chinese in US dollars :) , they exchange the yuan for US dollars and pay off those countries i.e. credit extended or investments made externally. That is what is allowing them to promise to invest these huge amounts in the hundreds of billions of dollars across the globe and in OBOR. It's a high stakes gamble in which they have leveraged their entire country, but whoever said the Chinese were not gamblers?

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Deans » 15 May 2017 19:37

shiv wrote:CPEC Masterplan for Pakistan.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1333101/exclu ... n-revealed
Good one. Read it all


Hitler would be proud of it.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby SSridhar » 15 May 2017 20:03

The Chinese are blowing hot & cold.

Now they say that BRI can spur China-India-Pakistan partnership - The Hindu

So, they have still not given up hope about India joining the OBOR.

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which China hopes would become the flagship for a new wave of globalisation, can help establish a triangular partnership among Beijing, New Delhi and Islamabad, says a leading Chinese researcher.

Pointing to the big picture, Hu Shisheng, Director of the Institute of South and Southeast Asian and Oceanian Studies at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, stressed that their common opposition to the growing anti-globalisation sentiment, imparts fresh strategic cement to China-India ties on the global stage.

“Amid increasing anti-globalisation sentiment, protectionism and extreme nationalism have been prevailing over free trade. As two major powers in the east, China and India are justified and obligated to actively fill the void in global governance caused by the withdrawal of some Western countries including the United States, and provide more public products and resources for the region’s development,” he observed.

Mr. Hu’s advocacy for globalisation dovetails with remarks by the Chinese President Xi Jinping, who told reporters on Monday, at the end of the two-day Belt and Road Forum, which he hosted, that the BRI would promote an open world economy, rebalance globalisation and work toward trade liberalisation. He also underscored that the One Belt One Road connectivity initiative, which would cover Asia, Europe and Africa, would back green and low-carbon development.

In an article in the China-Indian Dialogue magazine, which appeared ahead of the Belt and Road Forum (BRF), Mr. Hu points out that infrastructure projects taken up by China and India, separately can now be inter-connected under the BRI umbrella.

He stressed that just as the China-developed ports of Hambantota and Colombo in Sri Lanka, Kyaukpyu in Myanmar, as well as Gwadar in Pakistan, are bringing about “tremendous changes,” India’s port construction projects including Chabahar in Iran, Chittagong in Bangladesh and Sittwe in Myanmar are also catalysing modernisation. {He is just trying to massage India}

“Construction of the Pan-Asia Railway Network linking China and Southeast Asia is gaining steam, and India is increasing promotion of its ‘Look East’ policy,” the researcher observed.

Mr. Hu underscored that the despite the Indian government’s persisting scepticism of the Belt and Road Initiative and opposition to the construction of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), “breakthroughs are still likely to come considering that the Modi government’s sub-regional cooperation plan aligns with the Initiative.”

Covering a broad geographic swathe from the Arabian Sea to Southeast Asia, Mr. Hu highlighted that CPEC, as well as the India-led Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal (BBIN) initiative and BIMSTEC “are progressing smoothly,” breaking new ground for regional development.

In a specific reference to CPEC, the Chinese researcher said that the project completed the infrastructure gap that Pakistan, left out of India-initiated connectivity initiatives in the region, had experienced in the past. {This is not true. It was Pakistan which has opted out of such initiatives, the latest being the SAARC Satellite project} He highlighted that on account of its geographic location, the CPEC, once completed, will go a long way in bridging infrastructure in South Asia, Central and West Asia.

“More importantly, although Pakistan was excluded from India’s regional integration agenda, the construction of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor is expected to shore up weak links of regional integration between China, India and their neighbouring regions, especially Central, West and South Asia.”

Consequently, the “Belt and Road will lay a solid foundation for China and India to merge their respective sub-regional cooperation strategies in the future.”

Mr. Hu pointed out that the BRI is not a security oriented undertaking, driven by a zero-sum mentality of the past. “For China, India and Pakistan, the Belt and Road Initiative will foster friendship and cooperation in a wide variety of developmental realms. Such a programme stands in stark contrast with the security centered practices that other countries, especially major powers, usually take towards India and Pakistan.”

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby shiv » 15 May 2017 20:09

A_Gupta wrote:From November 2016: on Gwadar:
http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/gwa ... a-limited/

Such pipelines would need to climb the Karakorum mountain range with an altitude of 5,000 to 6,000 meters, where temperature fall as low as -30 C and earthquakes also happen frequently, Mei said, noting “the pipelines need extra heating and insulating equipment as well as high-power pumping stations.”

But those expenses will drive up the cost. Mei estimates that the cost of delivering oil through the Gwadar-Kashi pipeline is about 16.6 times more than shipping from Saudi Arabia to a port in Ningbo, East China’s Zhejiang Province.

“For the same amount of investment, it’s more economically viable to build very large crude carriers than oil pipelines,” Mei said.

Hahahahahaha :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: Phat gayi tuttistan ki....

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby A_Gupta » 15 May 2017 20:57

A big question is - will China try to deIslamize Pakistan?

If yes, then the two outcomes - China succeeds, or the blowback makes China much more a target of jihadis - are actually positive for India.

But if no, it is only a matter of time before Chinese investments in Pakistan are worth only a fraction of the capital that was laid out.
--
Regarding OBOR, the value of the old silk road, at least the part related to the subcontinent, was the trade with the whole of India, not just the piece of India that became West Pakistan. If the Chinese really want their Pakistani OBOR/CPEC investments to pay off in the usual capitalist way, they have to arm-twist Pakistan into normalizing relations with India or arm-twist India into normalizing relations with Pakistan. The former might be easier than the latter. Of course, China might count $54 billion sunk into Pakistan with no profitable return to be a defense expenditure.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby kit » 15 May 2017 21:54

India needs to charge a tax on whatever Chinese stuff that gets on OBOR through third countries . Also closing border with Pakistan will ensure economic blockade of CPEC

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Lisa » 15 May 2017 22:25

See I told you. We should have taken part in this from the start. Now we will only get a SMALL role! We will be just like sub-saharan county. Nothing, velly little, minute, tiny, microscopic...................

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 679656.cms

No big role for India if it decides to join OBOR in future, says China

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Atmavik » 15 May 2017 22:44

Are pakis going to start pork farming for the chinis?

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby panduranghari » 15 May 2017 22:51

Tuan wrote:IMHO, Indians should join hands with Chinese vis-a-vis OBOR project, since it will mutually benefit both parties. In order to survive and succeed in an interconnected and interdependent world, where global south nation states competing with global north, the only choice the regional actors have is to promote toleration, moderation, and coexistence. As the old saying goes "if you can't beat 'em, join 'em".


But who says Chinese cannot be beaten?


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