c) the amounts involved in CPEC are big but nothing to dent the Hans given their forex reserves.
With due regards, there is more to question in your argument than mine, but let me share my points and debate. The question I feel like asking you is that are you implying that Billions of dollars will be written off without huge military/economic/political repercussions? But let's keep that aside till we settle my arguments.
There are two implicit questions in your part, 1. Military, 2. Economic. Let me explain one by one
1. Economically: Their fx reserves are big in relation to the CPEC investments, AS OF TODAY, in a high export driven high growth environment, and with a population that was young and when they did not spend huge amounts on military (more on it in pt 2), socially(healthcare, social benefits etc.). This growth is decreasing. With BRF, their expenses will certainly increase for all the projects, military forces around it and all the new shiny toys reqd to be == to Uncle Sam or even beat it (more R&D, less of stealing/buying US/russian stuff). . Internally, they will have to support ageing population, This debt, debt+int, or the equity JV arrangements are flying now because of good times. Once the party is over, the westernized CPC mandarins and chinese mangoes will be questioning the govt for these write offs instead of their supporting their healthcare in old age and their kids' education. All this coupled with decrease in exports due to potential increased hostility in western capitals and neighbours would cause them huge huge pain.
2. Militarily: Here the new power and old power games will start playing out (proxy wars, direct wars, handling local unrest/conflicts: remember east india company). Once OBOR/BRF is implemented, there is little that china can do to avoid getting involved in such conflicts, unless it gets generous and writes off(impacting point 1 and taking write offs). Also, there's no way western world order will allow imperialism 2.0 (unless it involves them
). Now who all China have in the name of allies: Pakistan, NoKo, Phillipines, African Nations? Russia is a slippery friend (going by what happened in WW2 with Germany and Russian/Chinese are not old flames to yearn for each other). Now let's take a count of the nations they have managed to antagonize: US, India, Japan, SoKo, we can count UK in this list too as it will go by what Uncle sam says. EU will probably play or actually be a victim of Chinese imperialism. Apart from themselves, they dont have any military or even economic power to support them. Their own economy is export driven, which will slide down the commode at the first sign of strain in relationships with west. Khan will use the old rule books of today's order for toilet paper and play more dirty than them. With all the bases coming up faster than the military expertise (not just having big ships and hacked planes), they are sticking their neck too far outside their hide outs. Even if there is no direct war, china would be left handling simultaneous insurgencies (supported by western powers) in Pakistan(asia), Central Asia and Africa (that too in an optimistic scenario).
My sense is it would have been better had they did it piece meal, under the radar (did you hear an Indian official or Nehruvian babu?) and saw how things go rather than jumping in the river after testing water through their feet with shoes worn.
Now in the original post, this was one of the scenarios
if CPEC succeeds, or it will have to again restart the cycle after CPEC has been an economic and military failure.
....and a rare but quite plausible
PS: I meant entire BRF/OBOR and not just CPEC.
CPEC can fail for the Pakis but not for the hans. They will extract the last ounce of blood ( debt servicing) from the Napakis
That's what Pommies had thought, then Uncle Sam, and now China. The difference between Pommy/Uncle Sam is intinmacy with the pork infestation they had. You have to wait till Porkis start immigrating in great Hanland, start blowing them and their masters and PA/ISI starts the game of extracting money from Chinese for the protection of CPEC due to increased unrest, while funding/sponsoring the unrest themselves, but hey, hasn't that already started.
As one of the three Chinese curse says "May you live in interesting times", Chinese and we are surely going to live in "intelesting times'