OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

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OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Peregrine » 11 Apr 2018 23:23

X Posted on Analyzing CPEC and Terroristan Threads

How a remote Iranian port could heighten India-China tensions

TEHRAN: A remote Iranian port could be the next trigger for geopolitical tensions between rivals China and India.

India has pledged more than $500 million to develop the strategically located port of Chabahar — roughly 1,800 kilometers (1,110 miles) from the capital Tehran — since it first expressed interest in 2003. Yet repeated delays have prompted Iran to turn to China in the hope of speeding up construction.

On a March trip to Islamabad, Iran Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said he'd welcome Chinese and Pakistani investment in Chabahar, according to Dawn newspaper. He cited China's development of Gwadar, a port down the coast that is a showcase of President Xi Jinping's Belt-and-Road infrastructure initiative.

The shift makes sense for Iran, which wants to ensure Chabahar is an economic success. But it could be a strategic loss for India, which opposes China's expansion in the Indian Ocean and is already worried that Gwadar could one day be used as a military base — along with other China-backed ports from Myanmar to Bangladesh to Sri Lanka.

Any formal investment from Beijing would further weaken the strategic advantage for New Delhi to invest in Chabahar, which is close to Pakistan's western border. The Gwadar port is part of Xi's plan to finance $50 billion in infrastructure investments in Pakistan, and Chinese merchants already have a strong foothold in Chabahar.

China's foreign ministry did not immediately respond to an email seeking comment.

"Delhi would likely take the view that any Chinese presence at Chabahar, even if not involved in the operation of the port, could be used as a way of undermining India's influence with local authorities," said David Brewster, a senior research fellow with the Australian National University's National Security College. "It could also be potentially used to facilitate surveillance of India's activities."

Iran invite

While it's unclear whether China will take up Iran's offer, the involvement of a cash-rich and expansionist Beijing would almost certainly speed up development of the port.

China has overland train connections linking China to Iran and "huge" investments in the country, said Manoj Joshi, a distinguished fellow at the New Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation think-tank. "China is much deeper there than India."

Iran's invitation to invest was welcomed in Pakistan. "It's a positive statement that came for the first time from their side," Dostain Khan Jamaldini, chairman of the Gwadar Port Authority, said by phone. The two countries are already discussing a new ferry service that would link ports in Gwadar and Karachi with the Iranian ports of Chabahar and Bandar Abbas, Jamaldini said.

Cooperation between the two ports could be awkward. India and Pakistan are historic foes that have fought several wars, while India and China — which recently faced off in the Himalayas — are battling for geopolitical influence in South Asia.

Still, for Iran the port's development is important. It will be a vital trading hub in the Gulf of Oman, said Ebrahim Jamili, head of the Iran-India Chamber of Commerce in Tehran.

"The priority is with the Indians — they've been involved and came forward first," Jamili said. "But if another investor comes along and is interested in Chabahar, there is certainly enough space and opportunity for them and for their investment."

While there's been talks on Chinese and Pakistani involvement, Jamili said Pakistan is not a serious contender in terms of investment.

India first agreed to help Iran expand Chabahar port in 2003, constructing two terminals — a multipurpose cargo terminal and a container terminal. Progress slowed particularly as Western nations imposed sanctions on Iran, which were lifted in 2015. Delays have persisted since then, including a two-year dispute over whether India would pay $30 million of excise duties on port equipment imported into Iran.

Indian foreign ministry spokesman Raveesh Kumar said on Monday construction was going well and both sides were meeting regularly. He was unable to give a completion date.

"Significant progress" has been made at Chabahar, Kumar said, noting it was Iran's "prerogative" to choose its partners.

Cooperation with China would help Iran to relieve its financial situation and promote infrastructure development, said Yang Guang, a researcher on international relations with state-run Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

"China and Iran, as increasingly important economic forces on the international stage, have great potential for cooperation," Yang said.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby chetak » 12 Apr 2018 11:48

The hans cannot be too happy about the public stand of the IMF on the OBOR, BRI crackpot schemes, which may also well reflect the opinions of many EU countries as well as other heavy hitters in the global scheme of things.

The references to corruption in such a grand forum and its far reaching implications, invoked not too subtly, must have hit the hans really hard.

But calling an apple by its name is also calling out the hans for their sharp, coercive and invasive financial hocus pocus in the name of "investment".

Burnol ointment sales would surely have shot up in both srilanka and pukiland.

IMF head warns China on exporting debt through 'Silk Road'


IMF head warns China on exporting debt through 'Silk Road'

12th April 2018

BEIJING: IMF chief Christine Lagarde warned China on Thursday about saddling other countries with a "problematic increase in debt" through its ambitious global trade infrastructure project.

Lagarde made the comments at a Beijing forum on Chinese President Xi Jinping's signature Belt and Road initiative, a $1 trillion road, rail and construction project spanning dozens of countries -- from Asia to Africa and Europe.

But many of the colossal projects are being built by state-owned Chinese companies and financed by loans from China, leaving states billions of dollars in debt to Beijing.

"These ventures can also lead to a problematic increase in debt, potentially limiting other spending as debt service rises, and creating balance of payment challenges," Lagarde told the crowd of Chinese and foreign officials.

"In countries where public debt is already high, careful management of financing terms is critical," she said.

Some countries like Sri Lanka have already ended up deeply in debt and been left with little choice but to turn over crucial assets to Beijing as way to restructure the loans. In Sri Lanka's case, the island nation handed over a long term lease on the strategically located and bustling Hambantota Port to pay down debt.

Lagarde advocated greater transparency and cooperation to get all stakeholders on the same page to avoid such problems.

"It's not a free lunch, it's something where everybody chips in, it's not just honey for bees," she said, warning that the large scale spending projects also come with corruption temptations for officials.

"Projects can always present the risk of potentially failed projects and the misuse of funds. In some corners, it's even called corruption," Lagarde told the officials, many of whom preside over Belt and Road projects.

The speech may ruffle feathers in Beijing where leaders have heaped praise on the project and been loathe to acknowledge any risks or pitfalls in the initiative, which is often described as a revival of the ancient Silk Road trade routes.

Speaking before Lagarde, China's central bank chief Yi Gang said Chinese banks had "achieved great successes" providing low cost financing to Belt and Road countries. Yi said the banks do not rely on government subsidies but at the same time are "not purely commercial lending".

Xi struck back at criticism of his key initiative on Wednesday at the Boao Forum for Asia, a Davos-like meeting of international leaders held on the southern island of Hainan.

The Belt and Road "is neither the Marshall Plan after World War II nor an intrigue of China. It is, if anything, a plan in the sunshine," Xi said, according to the Xinhua state news agency.


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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby yensoy » 12 Apr 2018 11:52

^^^^ We need to provide debt insurance for the affected. It should work this way - country X takes on huge debt from the Chinese. After some years of making merry with Chinese money, one fine day X says "China, I am bankrupt, I can't pay you back, bye bye". China gets pissed and threatens to take action, including blocking any further financing (which was what got X into trouble in the first place). This is where OBOR Insurance kicks in, we step in and say "no worries, we will bail you out for 2 years". We advance some funds, probably get some collateral but that's not the point, our objective is met when the Chinese investment vanishes into thin air with nothing to show for it.

If China takes military action against a small guy, well that takes the problem to a different plane altogether, and suddenly everyone participating in OBOR will see a big target painted on them and sh!tting bricks.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby chetak » 12 Apr 2018 11:56

yensoy wrote:^^^^ We need to provide debt insurance for the affected. It should work this way - country X takes on huge debt from the Chinese. After some years of making merry with Chinese money, one fine day X says "China, I am bankrupt, I can't pay you back, bye bye". China gets pissed and threatens to take action, including blocking any further financing (which was what got X into trouble in the first place). This is where OBOR Insurance kicks in, we step in and say "no worries, we will bail you out for 2 years". We advance some funds, probably get some collateral but that's not the point, our objective is met when the Chinese investment vanishes into thin air with nothing to show for it.

If China takes military action against a small guy, well that takes the problem to a different plane altogether, and suddenly everyone participating in OBOR will see a big target painted on them and sh!tting bricks.


what exactly, would then be the difference between us and them??

Also, If we don't get collateral and then that very same little guy shits all over us too, just like what maldives is doing, where does that leave us??

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby panduranghari » 12 Apr 2018 13:47

yensoy wrote:^^^^ We need to provide debt insurance for the affected. It should work this way - country X takes on huge debt from the Chinese. After some years of making merry with Chinese money, one fine day X says "China, I am bankrupt, I can't pay you back, bye bye". China gets pissed and threatens to take action, including blocking any further financing (which was what got X into trouble in the first place). This is where OBOR Insurance kicks in, we step in and say "no worries, we will bail you out for 2 years". We advance some funds, probably get some collateral but that's not the point, our objective is met when the Chinese investment vanishes into thin air with nothing to show for it.

If China takes military action against a small guy, well that takes the problem to a different plane altogether, and suddenly everyone participating in OBOR will see a big target painted on them and sh!tting bricks.


Isn’t that a win for China? They get paid in real time when they fear loosing all accumulated savings which the US has threatened to inflate away?

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Bart S » 12 Apr 2018 14:00

panduranghari wrote:
yensoy wrote:^^^^ We need to provide debt insurance for the affected. It should work this way - country X takes on huge debt from the Chinese. After some years of making merry with Chinese money, one fine day X says "China, I am bankrupt, I can't pay you back, bye bye". China gets pissed and threatens to take action, including blocking any further financing (which was what got X into trouble in the first place). This is where OBOR Insurance kicks in, we step in and say "no worries, we will bail you out for 2 years". We advance some funds, probably get some collateral but that's not the point, our objective is met when the Chinese investment vanishes into thin air with nothing to show for it.

If China takes military action against a small guy, well that takes the problem to a different plane altogether, and suddenly everyone participating in OBOR will see a big target painted on them and sh!tting bricks.


Isn’t that a win for China? They get paid in real time when they fear loosing all accumulated savings which the US has threatened to inflate away?


There should be no funds on the line from our side. The deal should be that we protect them militarily (provided they sign on the agreements etc) and potentially explore deeper economic integration with them, if they choose to default and make a clean break from China. Also we can use our good offices with the developed world to ensure that the fallout of the default remains contained to China and not other legitimate multilateral institutions.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby arun » 12 Apr 2018 15:52

Financial Times, UK on IMF’s head warning that BRI / OBOR could cause a debt trap for countries conned by the Peoples Republic of China into joining the scheme.

Note that the FT article mentions that the Mohammadden Terrorism Fomenting Islamic Republic of Pakistan had been classified by a report last month by the Washington based Centre for Global Development as one among a group eight countries on the BRI routes who may already have trouble servicing debt due to high levels of borrowing from China. Maldives is another:

IMF’s Lagarde warns China on Belt and Road debt
Balance of payments risks seen for recipients of infrastructure finance

Charles Clover in Beijing 5 HOURS AGO Print this page24

The International Monetary Fund’s Christine Lagarde warned Chinese policymakers on Thursday to beware of financing unneeded and unsustainable projects in countries with heavy debt burdens.

Ms Lagarde, the IMF’s managing director, told a conference in Beijing that while China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) could provide much-needed infrastructure, “ventures can also lead to a problematic increase in debt, potentially limiting other spending as debt service rises, and creating balance of payments challenges”.

Beijing’s multibillion-dollar initiative, seen as the underpinning of a new Silk Road linking China to the world, is providing welcome finance to countries from east and central Asia to Europe and Africa for roads and other projects, but it has also been criticised for burdening recipients of the funds with debt.

The IMF also unveiled its first efforts to support the BRI, and Ms Lagarde announced the opening of a joint IMF-China Capacity Development Centre, which will help train Chinese development officials to work abroad. The first classes began in the city of Dalian last month.

The project is aimed at providing IMF support for the BRI, Beijing’s key foreign development initiative launched five years ago, which foresees hundreds of billions of dollars in development and infrastructure finance and is currently aimed at about 70 countries.

IMF encouragement has met with scepticism in some western countries, such as the US, which question whether the development effort masks a push by China to gain influence in Eurasia and Africa.

The issue of debt is also the crux of a debate within economic development circles over how to best handle the rise in Chinese investment in many countries with fragile economies.

According to a report last month by the Washington Centre for Global Development, eight countries on the BRI routes may already have trouble servicing debt due to high levels of borrowing from China, including Pakistan, Djibouti, Maldives and Laos. The study found 23 countries to be a “at risk of debt distress today” due to Belt and Road borrowing.

In a nod to these criticisms, Ms Lagarde said: “In countries where public debt is already high, careful management of financing terms is critical.”

Another challenge, she added, was “ensuring that Belt and Road only travels where it is needed” — an oblique reference to problems of insider dealing. “With any large-scale spending there is sometimes the temptation to take advantage of the selection and bidding process” she said.

Chinese officials have been keen to gain the imprimatur of the IMF and other established development agencies as seals of approval for the BRI.

“Ensuring debt sustainability [is] very important,” said Yi Gang, governor of the People’s Bank of China, in a speech welcoming Ms Lagarde to Beijing. However, he said it was just as important to consider “how to expand domestic infrastructure investment and how to improve public investment while taking full advantage of external resources”.

Developing countries have welcomed the Chinese approach — saying they often chafe at stringent IMF conditions on debt management that mean needed infrastructure must be delayed.

“The IMF conditions mean low growth” said one African official attending the conference in Thursday, who asked that his name and country not be mentioned “When you talk about debt sustainability, that also means low growth. It’s about finding a right balance.”

China has agreed to contribute $50m over five years to an IMF effort to train officials in China and in several other countries, including many in Africa.

In addition to announcing the IMF-China training centre, Ms Lagarde lauded an effort to bring BRI decision-making under the umbrella of a newly created International Development Cooperation Agency, which is to be in charge of China’s foreign aid.

Financial Times, UK

The report titled “Examining the Debt Implications of the Belt and Road Initiative from a Policy Perspective” by John Hurley, Scott Morris, and Gailyn Portelance for the Washington based Centre for Global Development in which the Mohammadden Terrorism Fomenting Islamic Republic of Pakistan and Maldives had been classified as one among a group of eight countries on the BRI routes who may already have trouble servicing debt due to high levels of borrowing from China is available here:

Examining the Debt Implications of the Belt and Road Initiative from a Policy Perspective

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby yensoy » 12 Apr 2018 17:04

chetak wrote:
yensoy wrote:^^^^ We need to provide debt insurance for the affected. It should work this way - country X takes on huge debt from the Chinese. After some years of making merry with Chinese money, one fine day X says "China, I am bankrupt, I can't pay you back, bye bye". China gets pissed and threatens to take action, including blocking any further financing (which was what got X into trouble in the first place). This is where OBOR Insurance kicks in, we step in and say "no worries, we will bail you out for 2 years". We advance some funds, probably get some collateral but that's not the point, our objective is met when the Chinese investment vanishes into thin air with nothing to show for it.

If China takes military action against a small guy, well that takes the problem to a different plane altogether, and suddenly everyone participating in OBOR will see a big target painted on them and sh!tting bricks.


what exactly, would then be the difference between us and them??

Also, If we don't get collateral and then that very same little guy shits all over us too, just like what maldives is doing, where does that leave us??


They put in big bucks, build infrastructure that nobody wants, grand buildings and high speed rail and all that fancy stuff.

We on the other hand only bail out the deficits for a short period of time so the nation affected doesn't fold under Chinese pressure, realizes the losses and moves on.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby chetak » 12 Apr 2018 21:38

yensoy wrote:
chetak wrote:
what exactly, would then be the difference between us and them??

Also, If we don't get collateral and then that very same little guy shits all over us too, just like what maldives is doing, where does that leave us??


They put in big bucks, build infrastructure that nobody wants, grand buildings and high speed rail and all that fancy stuff.

We on the other hand only bail out the deficits for a short period of time so the nation affected doesn't fold under Chinese pressure, realizes the losses and moves on.


So, the loser locals simply unclamp from one tit and clamp on to another tit (us!!), albeit for a short time. This helps them to get money from us and fork it over to the hans to catch up on their interest payments/lighten their debt burden, whatever.

Leaving, of course, the hans much elated and laughing all the way to the bank, no??

The SLs and nepal ignored our common heritage, culture, ancient civilization ties and the help we rendered to them over the years. No matter. We have also learned about gaddar friends.

The SLs went to another culture which promptly shafted them and made off with their national property for a century. The SLs, now very f(uked and far from home have turned to us to get their slowly roasting testimonials out of the han fire. The nepalese are way down the very same road as well.

Perhaps, it would be best to just let them be to learn their han lesson and I guess that they may find their way back again after a century or two.

SL and nepal should be left alone to stew in their self created mess.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby arun » 13 Apr 2018 08:58

X Posted from the CPEC thread.

FWIW a neither here nor there article by one Salman Rafi Sheikh who is described as an Academic from the Mohammadden Terrorism Fomenting Islamic Republic of Pakistan titled “Belt-and-Road: The Chinese Albatross Around Pakistan’s Neck” in Asia Sentinel on BRI / OBOR / CPEC,

The acronym CPEC nonetheless is best expanded to read Conning Pakistan to Enrich China:

Belt-and-Road: The Chinese Albatross Around Pakistan’s Neck

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby yensoy » 13 Apr 2018 10:03

chetak wrote:
yensoy wrote:
They put in big bucks, build infrastructure that nobody wants, grand buildings and high speed rail and all that fancy stuff.

We on the other hand only bail out the deficits for a short period of time so the nation affected doesn't fold under Chinese pressure, realizes the losses and moves on.


So, the loser locals simply unclamp from one tit and clamp on to another tit (us!!), albeit for a short time. This helps them to get money from us and fork it over to the hans to catch up on their interest payments/lighten their debt burden, whatever.

Leaving, of course, the hans much elated and laughing all the way to the bank, no??

The SLs and nepal ignored our common heritage, culture, ancient civilization ties and the help we rendered to them over the years. No matter. We have also learned about gaddar friends.

The SLs went to another culture which promptly shafted them and made off with their national property for a century. The SLs, now very f(uked and far from home have turned to us to get their slowly roasting testimonials out of the han fire. The nepalese are way down the very same road as well.

Perhaps, it would be best to just let them be to learn their han lesson and I guess that they may find their way back again after a century or two.

SL and nepal should be left alone to stew in their self created mess.



Ok you are missing the point here, so let me make it very clear:

We give a monetary reward to those who kick out the Hans. Got it?

We can call it "OBOR default insurance" which is one way of saying that for every 1B$ loss suffered by the Hans we give your country a reward of 50M$ (and on the side some money to your political party/family).

Sooner or later these small guys are going get into financial trouble bigger than their GDPs. They could blame previous political governments for it; they could capitulate to the big money lender by pledging their first born; they could go to the IMF (which would basically be the Western equivalent of OBOR default insurance); or they could come to us.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby chetak » 13 Apr 2018 10:40

yensoy wrote:
chetak wrote:
So, the loser locals simply unclamp from one tit and clamp on to another tit (us!!), albeit for a short time. This helps them to get money from us and fork it over to the hans to catch up on their interest payments/lighten their debt burden, whatever.

Leaving, of course, the hans much elated and laughing all the way to the bank, no??

The SLs and nepal ignored our common heritage, culture, ancient civilization ties and the help we rendered to them over the years. No matter. We have also learned about gaddar friends.

The SLs went to another culture which promptly shafted them and made off with their national property for a century. The SLs, now very f(uked and far from home have turned to us to get their slowly roasting testimonials out of the han fire. The nepalese are way down the very same road as well.

Perhaps, it would be best to just let them be to learn their han lesson and I guess that they may find their way back again after a century or two.

SL and nepal should be left alone to stew in their self created mess.



Ok you are missing the point here, so let me make it very clear:

We give a monetary reward to those who kick out the Hans. Got it?

We can call it "OBOR default insurance" which is one way of saying that for every 1B$ loss suffered by the Hans we give your country a reward of 50M$ (and on the side some money to your political party/family).

Sooner or later these small guys are going get into financial trouble bigger than their GDPs. They could blame previous political governments for it; they could capitulate to the big money lender by pledging their first born; they could go to the IMF (which would basically be the Western equivalent of OBOR default insurance); or they could come to us.


The hans are backed by economic and military muscle. They may not be crass enough to show it publicly. They have enough weight in the UN to enmesh some piddly country in some human rights BS, whatever and drag that country through the mud. No one would interfere.

why should we get our knickers in a twist for some losers who went and willfully committed suicide??

If it were so easy as you think, someone would already have done it by now.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby yensoy » 13 Apr 2018 13:09

chetak wrote:
yensoy wrote:

Ok you are missing the point here, so let me make it very clear:

We give a monetary reward to those who kick out the Hans. Got it?

We can call it "OBOR default insurance" which is one way of saying that for every 1B$ loss suffered by the Hans we give your country a reward of 50M$ (and on the side some money to your political party/family).

Sooner or later these small guys are going get into financial trouble bigger than their GDPs. They could blame previous political governments for it; they could capitulate to the big money lender by pledging their first born; they could go to the IMF (which would basically be the Western equivalent of OBOR default insurance); or they could come to us.


The hans are backed by economic and military muscle. They may not be crass enough to show it publicly. They have enough weight in the UN to enmesh some piddly country in some human rights BS, whatever and drag that country through the mud. No one would interfere.

why should we get our knickers in a twist for some losers who went and willfully committed suicide??

If it were so easy as you think, someone would already have done it by now.


No we haven't done it by now because we don't think like badmashes. Too much correctness and openness which precludes us from doing underhand stuff.

Again the objective is not bail out a willing bakra but to force the Chinese to book losses.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Manish_P » 13 Apr 2018 14:43

We may not be badmashes, but we are pretty close to being Baniyas

And it is not a smart tactic to willingly cut and bleed yourself in the way of trying to cause a hemorrhage in a much bigger guy and hoping he bleeds out before you do.

Ask Pakistan, if required

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby chetak » 13 Apr 2018 18:45

Manish_P wrote:We may not be badmashes, but we are pretty close to being Baniyas

And it is not a smart tactic to willingly cut and bleed yourself in the way of trying to cause a hemorrhage in a much bigger guy and hoping he bleeds out before you do.

Ask Pakistan, if required


especially, when he is shameless and has a myriad of shady ways in which he can and will bleed you.

Including but not merely limited to formenting, encouraging and supporting jehadis in the NE as well as cashmere.

The basic premise being : don't wrestle a pig because.......................

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby yensoy » 13 Apr 2018 20:58

At the end of the day, the IMF will do the same dirty work.

This is the situation:
1. Country X is unable to repay Chinese loans; afraid that default will destroy its economy & balance of payments since money from China will dry up
2. Politically it is no longer tenable to continue relationship with China
3. So X will approach IMF for a bailout

This will be IMF's reaction:
1. Default on your debts to China
2. Reorganize your own finances - spend less on defence, get people to pay more taxes, cut entitlements
3. Hawk some sovereign assets as collateral
4. Here is a cheque to keep you from going belly up for the next 2 years; after that you are on your own

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby chetak » 14 Apr 2018 13:56

yensoy wrote:At the end of the day, the IMF will do the same dirty work.

This is the situation:
1. Country X is unable to repay Chinese loans; afraid that default will destroy its economy & balance of payments since money from China will dry up
2. Politically it is no longer tenable to continue relationship with China
3. So X will approach IMF for a bailout

This will be IMF's reaction:
1. Default on your debts to China
2. Reorganize your own finances - spend less on defence, get people to pay more taxes, cut entitlements
3. Hawk some sovereign assets as collateral
4. Here is a cheque to keep you from going belly up for the next 2 years; after that you are on your own


this says it all. I'm out.

The basic premise being : don't wrestle a pig because.......................

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Vasu » 16 Apr 2018 15:50

posted last night on Forbes.com. Members are well aware of the unfolding story itself.

What Is China Doing To Pakistan? The Same Thing It Did To Sri Lanka

One day, China will turn Pakistan into its own “semi-colony,” as it did recently with Sri Lanka.

China has been nice to Pakistan, on the surface that is. It has been building the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which will connect Western China with the Indian Ocean, provided of course that India will allow it.

Meanwhile, Pakistan’s foreign currency reserves and foreign capital flows are falling, making it increasing likely that Pakistan will seek to reschedule its debt to China. Perhaps, by swapping debt with equity, which in essence will handle CPEC to Beijing.

That’s the model China applied in rescheduling Sri Lanka’s debt, turning the country’s Hambantota port officially into China’s own port, for 99 years. That’s according to a landmark agreement signed early last year, which gives China Merchants Ports Holdings—an arm of the Chinese government—70% stake in the Indian Ocean’s prominent outpost.

That’s what will eventually happen to Pakistan when China takes over CPEC, and end up collecting tolls from every vehicle that passes through.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby yensoy » 17 Apr 2018 05:23

Debt competition is happening as we speak

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-16/china-india-extend-grace-periods-for-mozambique-debt-repayments

China, India Extend Grace Periods for Mozambique Debt Repayments

Chinese loans are 2B$ at 2% interest; Indians loans are 175M$ at 1.75% interest. Who blinked first? Did the tail wag the dog? Will be interesting to know, and could be a template for the future.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Manish_P » 17 Apr 2018 13:48

^ China has written off USD 36 Mn (approx the interest amount ?). Has India written off any amount ?

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby arun » 18 Apr 2018 11:52

X Posted from the India - Russia thread. The PRC brings in its Russian sidekick to promote OBOR / BRI / CPEC.

sunnyP wrote:It’s remarkable that Russia's Ambassador to India can, on Indian soil, praise Pakistan in such a way.


Russian envoy to India defends country’s growing ties with Pakistan


In my take…after this country joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, after this country started to take serious measures to curb the financing of terror, the credibility of Pakistan is growing and there is no reason, no sense to deny its wish, its will to be a part of regional and global efforts to fight terror, to search for stability and to enhance economic integration,” he said during the question and answer session.

Earlier in his speech, Kudashev said Russia is “open for contacts with every country” to ensure regional stability. Without naming Pakistan or the US, he also said “excessive pressure” on any of Afghanistan’s neighbours would “just antagonise them and make numerous problems even more complicated”.



https://m.hindustantimes.com/world-news ... hnhXM.html


Simply put Russia in an effort of keeping alive its Soviet superpower delusions of grandeur in the face of a real and substantial diminution in National Power has resigned itself to playing Tonto to the Peoples Republic of China’s Lone Ranger in the East including in our bailiwick and in the former the former Soviet stamping grounds in the Central Asian Republic’s aka Stans, in return for being able to temporarily pursue its irredentist delusions of grandeur Power in the West in areas such as Georgia and Ukraine. Hence Russia is and will increasingly kow-tow to the PRC whims and desires by pushing inimical initiatives like BRI/OBOR/CPEC to India besides by aiding and abetting the PRC’s Taller than Himalayas, Deeper than Indian Ocean, Sweeter than Honey, Iron Brother ally the Mohammadden Terrorism Fomenting Islamic Republic of Pakistan. Our leaders must recognise this diminution in National Power induced Russian realignment of interests with the 2 countries that are most inimical to our National Interest and act to thwart Russia in in its actions in the West. India should not give Russia respite for choosing to playing younger brother to the PRC in our part of the world.

Another version of the same story of Russia playing Tonto to the PRC’s Lone Ranger from a Livemint starting with my quoting the nauseous comment by Russian Ambassador to India Nikolay Kudashev which is a warning that Russia could very act to stymie efforts at FATF to take meaningful action against the Mohammadden Terrorism Fomenting Islamic Republic of Pakistan and can also be expected to be very accommodative of that country when they inevitably land up at the IMF for a loan:

“The credibility of this country (Pakistan) after it joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), after it started to take serious measures on the financing of terror, the credibility of Pakistan is growing. There is no reason, no sense to deny its wish to be part of the regional and global effort to fight terror, to search for stability and enhanced economic integration,”


From Live Mint:

Terror crackdown has raised Pakistan’s credibility: Russia

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Prem » 19 Apr 2018 08:30

http://indianexpress.com/article/world/ ... s-5142875/
China proposes India-Nepal-China economic corridor through Himalayas
China on Wednesday proposed a India-Nepal-China economic corridor with multi-dimensional connectivity through the Himalayas as it seeks to expand its influence over the new Nepalese government headed by Prime Minister K P Sharma Oli, widely regarded as pro-Beijing. China’s proposal came after visiting Nepalese Foreign Minister Pradeep Kumar Gyawali held talks with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi.“Let me say China and Nepal have agreed on long-term vision of a multi-dimensional cross Himalaya connectivity network,” Wang told a joint press briefing along with Gyawali after their talks. Gyawali is on his maiden visit to Beijing after the Oli-led government came to power in recent elections.Wang said China and Nepal have already signed an MOU on the China’s multi-billion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in which connectivity cooperation is a part.
It included a long-term vision such as connectivity network and covering the links between the two countries through ports, railways, highways, aviation, power and communications. “We believe that such a well-developed connectivity network can also create conditions for an economic corridor connecting China, Nepal and India,” Wang said.“We hope that such cooperation will contribute development and prosperity for all the three countries,” he said. Reacting to a question whether Gyawali’s visit to China was aimed at counterbalancing the recent visit by Oli to India, his first visit abroad after taking over as Prime Minister, Wang sought to make out a case for trilateral cooperation between India, China and Nepal.He said Beijing and New Delhi should facilitate it. “China, Nepal and India are natural friends and partners. We are neighbours connected by rivers and mountains. This is a fact that cannot be changed by whatever changes taking place in the world and inside the three countries,” Wang said.
“Support for Nepal’s development should be a common understanding between China and India. As two major emerging economies, China and India shall deliver the benefits to their neighbours Nepal included in their own development,” he said. [b]“Nepal on its part should leverage its geographical advantage and connect China and India for greater development. Nepal stands as a natural beneficiary from cooperation from China and India. I think this is a logical desire that should be supported by China and India,” he said.[/b]
The pro-active initiatives by China came as Oli, who is widely regarded as pro-China, during his last tenure as Prime Minister signed a transit treaty with Beijing in 2016 ending the decades-long dependence on India for commodity and energy supplies for his landlocked country.He also sought railway connectivity between the two countries through Tibet which China is currently building. Wang said Gyawali had given firm commitment for the ‘one China’ policy accepting Taiwan and Tibet as part of China. In an apparent reference to curtailment of Tibetan refugees crossing to Dharamsala through Nepal to meet the Dalai Lama, Wang said Nepal has agreed to not allow its territory to be used for anti-China activities.Nepal values its “trouble less and trouble-free relationship”, with China, Gyawali said. In his talks with Wang, Gyawali said both sides comprehensively reviewed transit transport agreement, joint feasibility study of the China-Nepal free trade agreement signed during the previous visit Oli, he said.“We extended our views on the draft protocol of the transit trade agreement and agreed to intensify negotiations in the coming days for its early finalisation,” he said. “We also shared views on the implementation of the MOU on the cooperation under the BRI. Nepal has expectation on the initiatives to contribute to the development of infrastructure, enhanced cross-border connectivity trough railways and roads, promotion of trade, tourism and investment and people to people contacts,” he said.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby ArjunPandit » 19 Apr 2018 08:47

China is desperate to bring India into the OBOR/BRI fold. They know that only hope of recovering any dues from this ponzi scheme is by bringing India in. OBOR is toast without India. India would do well to not touch with it. We can definitely use it after the collapse of china

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby chetak » 20 Apr 2018 09:24

ArjunPandit wrote:China is desperate to bring India into the OBOR/BRI fold. They know that only hope of recovering any dues from this ponzi scheme is by bringing India in. OBOR is toast without India. India would do well to not touch with it. We can definitely use it after the collapse of china


Their desperation has reached panic proportions.

They are throwing everything at us, using nepal, russia, pakis, iran, afghanistan, bangladesh, srilanka, trying to bully sushma swaraj into agreeing, and pulling out all stops on the international arena as well.

We need a very clear read on why the hans have become so very desperate to drag India into their ponzi scheme. Completely avoiding all generalities, we need a clear and dispassionate read on their real reasons to bamboozle India.

What exactly has changed, why is India their only solution and what happens to India after that??


"Another" stoopid Indian political party and many are impatiently waiting in the wings, hoping to pocket tons of han money, and they would accept the han offer in a flash.

The hans are already influencing, financing such "cooperative" political parties, in the run up to the 2019 circus, and and their gaddar leaders, judging from their "caught with their pants down" "secret" talks with the mafia gang during the doklam standoff.

How many other "mainland china" lunch or dinner tête-à-têtes went unreported or simply sailed under the radar?? or were covered up by the money grubbing presstitutes??

This is how the hans have always operated in all their "investment" ventures. Using gaddars like the rajapaksa family in SL to force their way into the tent. India also does not lack for such gaddar families.

Seeing the current predicament of SL, the rajapaksa family should have been jailed for traitorous acts against their own country.

Nepal is already in the death grip of the hans and they are hoping to leverage that to break into India and nepal seems very very keen to oblige the hans.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby chetak » 20 Apr 2018 09:49

Manish_P wrote:^ China has written off USD 36 Mn (approx the interest amount ?). Has India written off any amount ?



Why get into a pissing contest with an opponent that you well know that you don't have the financial muscle to take on just yet??

If you oblige one country, all others, similarly "affected", rightly or wrongly, will demand the same treatment and will actively turn against you, if you don't oblige.

Best not to enter this dirty han arena and get sucked into the local muck. Our financing terms are very different from the terms of the hans and we should use that vital factor to leverage our case.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby ArjunPandit » 20 Apr 2018 09:50

With the acts of china, I am very optimistic, all these countries will provide us opportunities to perform the final rites of budding chinese empire

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby atma » 22 Apr 2018 02:44

https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Inside-China-s-1-billion-port-where-ships-don-t-12853345.php

The eight-year-old Hambantota port -- with almost no container traffic and trampled fences that elephants traverse with ease -- has become a prime example of what can go wrong for countries involved in President Xi Jinping's "Belt and Road" trade and infrastructure initiative. Sri Lanka borrowed heavily to build the port, couldn't repay the loans, and then gave China a 99-year lease for debt relief.


Just reiterating.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby chetak » 22 Apr 2018 12:39

atma wrote:https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Inside-China-s-1-billion-port-where-ships-don-t-12853345.php

The eight-year-old Hambantota port -- with almost no container traffic and trampled fences that elephants traverse with ease -- has become a prime example of what can go wrong for countries involved in President Xi Jinping's "Belt and Road" trade and infrastructure initiative. Sri Lanka borrowed heavily to build the port, couldn't repay the loans, and then gave China a 99-year lease for debt relief.


Just reiterating.


So, in a spirit of goodwill and deep understanding, we should gift tens of millions of dollars to the SLs so that both they and hans can laugh all the way to the cheeni bank.

Soon, some slimy bandaranaike type will promptly put out a cunning statement in the SL press about how a big country like India should have given them (poor SLs) ten of billions of dollars and not mere tens of millions only.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Vasu » 24 Apr 2018 14:50

Highlights how disliked the Chinese are increasingly becoming across the third world for their highhandedness, racism and unwillingness to follow rules, while Europe, in this case France, pussyfoots as usual.

Trouble in Paradise: A Chinese Occupation in Tahiti

China’s strategic and military interests in the South Pacific are expanding rapidly. They build on longstanding links and fill the vacuum left by receding U.S. and French power projection in the region, as well as Australia and New Zealand’s longstanding neglect of key relationships.

China is now acknowledged by many Pacific leaders as the dominant power in the region. While Pacific leaders will continue to work with traditional partners, they will not back down on their expanding relations with China. China has offered to them what the United States and its allies cannot, massive sums of money for development projects that promise jobs and economic independence.

But China — like any lender — exacts a price for its aid, and Pacific nations are gradually learning the cost. Nothing sums up the challenges and dilemmas Pacific peoples face in dealing with a rising China more than the simmering political scandal over the Chinese consulate in Tahiti’s illegal occupation of a house used for China’s diplomatic offices in French Polynesia.

The two-story, five bedroom “Résidence Taina,” built in an imposing French colonial style, sits on a prominent aerie above the Taina Marina at Puna’auia in the suburb Taina, close to Pape’ete. The house is crowned with a large north-facing satellite dish. Coincidentally — and perhaps auspiciously for the Chinese consulate — the name of the house, the suburb, and the marina it overlooks means “China” in Tahitian.

The Chinese consulate has been renting the property since 2007. The property owners say that China never respected the terms of the rental agreement, so in 2017 they refused to renew the lease. According to the rental agreement, the building was to be used for accommodation purposes only. It is located in a private residential area; but China turned the house into diplomatic offices. The consulate did not pay rubbish collection fees for the house for 10 years. They denied the property owner, 76-year-old Huguette Ly, rights to inspect the property regularly. Consular staff physically and verbally intimidated her and her daughter, Eva Bitton. They also installed the satellite dish on the roof of the house without her permission — though they would have had to obtain the consent of the French government to set it up.

The consulate was given six months to evacuate the property, and the consul agreed in writing to move out at the end of this period. This extension ended on February 28, 2018; but the current consul, Shen Zhiliang, is refusing to leave and is demanding the owner sell the house to China. But the house, Ly’s former family home, is not for sale. Consular staff claimed in a 2017 letter to Ly that “once rented, the house has become territory of the People’s Republic of China.” The consul has declined to speak to media about the case.

China has growing interests in French Polynesia. One of the most prominent is the investment of Tahiti Nui Ocean Foods, a subsidiary of mining company China Tianrui Group, in Hao Island. With the assistance of significant financial concessions and subsidies given by the government of President Ėdouard Fritch, Tahiti Nui Ocean Foods is setting up a fish farm and processing plant on Hao Island that plans to export live fish to China via the massive airfield there, up until 1996 used by French bombers during the era of nuclear tests in French Polynesia.

In addition to the Hao project, HNA Group has also invested in the Hilton Hotel in Mo’orea and St Regis Hotel in Bora Bora. The French Polynesian government had hopes that HNA would invest in further hotels, a golf course, and even a budget airline. Banking links have recently been set up with China UnionPay.

French Polynesia is in great need of foreign investment that will create employment. It is France’s largest overseas territory, and has limited autonomy, a failing tourist-based economy subsidised by French aid, and very high rates of unemployment and poverty. France is in charge of French Polynesia’s foreign affairs, defense, and justice matters. The French government’s representative in Tahiti has refused to intervene in the dispute over Résidence Taina, telling Eva Bitton no court in France would take the case.

Bitton has launched a social media campaign to bring attention to the situation. She says she has been forced to do so because the French Polynesian media have been told not to cover the story — though there have been limited reports in a local magazine and on television. People in the community know what is going on and Bitton’s campaign has received a lot of support.

Local politicians are sympathetic to her plight and acknowledge she and her mother are within their legal rights. But they have also told her “China cannot be challenged” as they fear speaking up may risk losing China’s multiple investment projects in French Polynesia.

In 2017 the Fritch government offered land in central Pape’ete to the Chinese consul; at a modest rent, on a long-term lease. The government explicitly stated that this was so China could move out of Résidence Taina and build a new consulate. But the Chinese consul refuses to move to the new location. The proposed new site for the consulate buildings would be much more convenient for processing visas and passports — but it is not suitable for hosting a satellite dish.

Satellite interests are an important aspect of China’s surge into the South Pacific. China plans to launch 18 BeiDou-3 satellites into space in 2018. Beidou-3 is China’s indigenous GPS; by the end of 2018 it will provide missile positioning and timing and enhanced C4ISR capabilities for the Chinese military, as well as navigation services to more than 60 countries along the Belt and Road, including in Oceania. Pape’ete is where China’s mobile satellite-receiving vessel, Yuan-6, as well as other quasi military boats such as the Peace Ark and China’s maritime research vessels, regularly dock.

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OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Peregrine » 24 Apr 2018 15:26

ArjunPandit wrote:China is desperate to bring India into the OBOR/BRI fold. They know that only hope of recovering any dues from this ponzi scheme is by bringing India in. OBOR is toast without India. India would do well to not touch with it. We can definitely use it after the collapse of china
chetak wrote:Their desperation has reached panic proportions.

They are throwing everything at us, using nepal, russia, pakis, iran, afghanistan, bangladesh, srilanka, trying to bully sushma swaraj into agreeing, and pulling out all stops on the international arena as well.

We need a very clear read on why the hans have become so very desperate to drag India into their ponzi scheme. Completely avoiding all generalities, we need a clear and dispassionate read on their real reasons to bamboozle India.

What exactly has changed, why is India their only solution and what happens to India after that??


"Another" stoopid Indian political party and many are impatiently waiting in the wings, hoping to pocket tons of han money, and they would accept the han offer in a flash.

The hans are already influencing, financing such "cooperative" political parties, in the run up to the 2019 circus, and and their gaddar leaders, judging from their "caught with their pants down" "secret" talks with the mafia gang during the doklam standoff.

How many other "mainland china" lunch or dinner tête-à-têtes went unreported or simply sailed under the radar?? or were covered up by the money grubbing presstitutes??

This is how the hans have always operated in all their "investment" ventures. Using gaddars like the rajapaksa family in SL to force their way into the tent. India also does not lack for such gaddar families.

Seeing the current predicament of SL, the rajapaksa family should have been jailed for traitorous acts against their own country.

Nepal is already in the death grip of the hans and they are hoping to leverage that to break into India and nepal seems very very keen to oblige the hans.
chetak Ji :

Not only you have presented us with an excellent post but have asked the RIGHT QUESTIONS.

IMHO : In addition to all the reasons stated by various members here, the MOST IMPORTANT REASON is the Access of Terroristan to a Terroristani Extension of the proposed INDIA - BANGLADESH - MYANMAR - CHINA ROAD SYSTEM.

This will then provide the Chinese Multiple Entries and Exits TO & FROM India i.e. Via 1. Myanmar, 2. Bangladesh, 3. Nepal and finally 4. Terroristan.

India will easily spot the Chinese & Myanmarese Intruders but not the Bangladeshi, Nepalese and Terroristanis. I need not explain this point as the reason is patent to you. We will be flooded with the last three types as we will unable to differentiate the difference between the normal Indians and these three origins.

Thus I hope I have joined you in wanting to ENSURE the INDIA never Joins CPEC and possibly even the India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Myanmar and then China Highway!

Cheers Image

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Philip » 24 Apr 2018 16:52

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Asia- ... ink&src=nl

ASIA INSIGHT
India and China jostle for influence in Iran and Central Asia
New Delhi's 7,000km transport corridor cuts across Beijing's Belt and Road


KIRAN SHARMA and AKIHIRO SANO, Nikkei staff writers
April 24, 2018

NEW DELHI/ISTANBUL -- China and India's new Great Game has reached the playing field of the original imperial power rivalry in the 19th century: Iran and Central Asia.
Each of the rising giants wants to be the one to shape a new regional order. Their competition for influence continues to unfold in Indian Ocean countries like the Maldives and Sri Lanka. But they are also pressing farther west, up into the Arabian Sea, Iran and the Central Asian states.

China has a potent weapon in its Belt and Road Initiative, which entails huge infrastructure investments across Central Asia and on to Europe. New Delhi, though, is pushing back hard with an alternative network of sea and rail routes called the International North-South Transport Corridor. So while Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping are to meet later this week, aiming to mend fences after a military standoff last year, their broader economic and security contest is only just beginning.

Sushma Swaraj, India's external affairs minister, talked up India's vision for the corridor during a visit to oil-rich Azerbaijan in early April. Swaraj said she and her counterpart, Elmar Mammadyarov, agreed that the INSTC "is an important initiative that can reduce time and cost [of delivering goods] by about 30% to 40%."

The 7,000km corridor connects India with Russia, though there are still gaps that must be covered with trucks. Compared with the traditional route through the Suez Canal, the completed corridor will reduce the transport time between Mumbai and Moscow to about 20 days, from around 40, according to the Japan External Trade Organization.

This has the potential to transform Eurasian trade -- and gives India far more flexibility and clout. The country's access to western and Central Asia has long been hindered by the presence of Pakistan. With the corridor, India can bypass its nemesis and procure Central Asian resources through Iran.

One of the key links along the way is a rail line that crosses the border between Iran and Azerbaijan. The nuclear deal with Iran in 2016, under which Western powers lifted all sanctions, helped pave the way for investment in the Astara railway, as it is known.

In late March, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani visited Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, where he and Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev welcomed the completion of the 10km stretch of track that crosses the border. The same day, the two leaders presided over a loan signing ceremony, with Azerbaijan lending its neighbor $500 million to connect two cities -- Astara and Rasht -- and finish the final missing piece of the corridor.

Iran expects the Astara-Rasht segment to be finished in about two years, and all INSTC rail segments are to be connected seamlessly after 2020. "Our southern Iranian ports will be a gateway to the Caucasus, Central Asia, Russia, and onward to Northern Europe and Eastern Europe," Rouhani said.

For India, Iran is the gateway through which it hopes to send clothing, chemicals and agricultural products to consumers in Central Asia and Europe, while at the same time procuring oil, natural gas and metals from Central Asia's landlocked countries. Gas is a priority, given the urgent need to curb India's air pollution, a byproduct of its brisk economic growth.

India has been actively courting Iran, and the Iranians have been receptive. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi welcomed Rouhani to New Delhi in February and told his guest, "It is a matter of great pleasure for us that an Iranian president has traveled to India after a gap of 10 years." Rouhani came bearing a special gift: a lease to manage the first phase of the Chabahar port project in the south of his country.

India has provided considerable support for Iranian port development and invested $500 million in Chabahar. The management deal allows an Indian company to run part of the port's multipurpose facilities and container terminal for 18 months.

"Our relations go far beyond trade, economic and diplomatic relations," Rouhani told reporters. "Our relations are historical, cultural and civilizational."

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, left, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi meet in New Delhi in February. China, too, is courting Tehran. © Reuters
Clearly, India is convinced of Chabahar's strategic importance. Why? The answer lies along China's Belt and Road.

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is a 3,000km rail and road route from western China to Pakistan's Gwadar port, crossing over Pakistani-controlled territory in disputed Kashmir. The port, a major trading hub on the Indian Ocean, is operated by a Chinese company.

The Iranian port of Chabahar, meanwhile, is situated just 150km to the east of Gwadar. India's emphasis on the port appears to reflect its desire to contain Chinese activity in what it regards as its own backyard.

India also plans to fund a rail project from Chabahar to the Iranian city of Zahedan, on the border with Afghanistan. In January, India and Iran signed a railway cooperation agreement under which Tehran will purchase locomotives and freight cars from New Delhi. Upon completion, the project will connect the Iranian port to Afghanistan and onward to Central Asia.

Rouhani poses at Iran's port of Chabahar, which has attracted heavy Indian investment. © AP
Not to be outdone, China is also strengthening ties with Iran. It has begun sending freight trains to Tehran via Central Asia, placing the Iranian capital on its main transport route to Europe.

Within Iran, some sections of the Belt and Road and the INSTC overlap. This could be a boon to businesses but could also pose a political risk, if Beijing and New Delhi decide to play a zero-sum game.

"Even if China and India seem willing to enlist cooperation from each other, they would remain hostile to each other behind the scenes," said Takuya Murakami, a research fellow at the Middle East Institute of Japan.

"The INSTC could emerge as a counter to China's BRI," said Pankaj Jha, a professor of defense and strategic studies at O.P. Jindai Global University and a former research director at the Indian Council of World Affairs.

"While the BRI initiative is dominated by China and addresses only the communist giant's cause, the INSTC will be largely addressing the cause of developing countries and will be more fruitful in terms of complementarities, as well as fulfilling the aspirations of the people of the whole region," Jha said.

As China and India continue their tug of war, the countries caught in the middle aim to strike a balance and maximize the benefits. Iran, as we have seen, is eager to attract Indian investment. But it is also the biggest supplier of oil to China, and Chinese money is critical for Tehran's infrastructure plans.

In March, the Iranian government signed a deal with China Machinery Industry Construction Group to build a $700 million train line between the cities of Shiraz and Bushehr.

But India, which considers Central Asia part of its "extended neighborhood," may be able to take advantage of regional anxiety over China's growing power.

Belt and Road infrastructure projects have left some countries heavily indebted to China, particularly small and resource-poor states like Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. A Center for Global Development report published in March listed eight countries at "particular risk of debt distress" from related projects, including those two central Asian states. This debt trap could give China leverage to demand greater security and economic cooperation.

Russia, too, is concerned about its heavy dependence on China, despite their long-standing relationship. And Moscow's deteriorating relations with the U.S. and Europe are only increasing the importance of energy and other ties with India and Iran. Russian President Vladimir Putin has promoted the INSTC as a "flagship project."


India may have an opportunity to act as a counterweight, using the INSTC to increase its political, security, economic and cultural connections across the region.

"It was a great advantage for our country that big states like China and India are initiating such huge projects to export their goods and looking for new routes," Javid Gurbanov, the chairman of Azerbaijan Railway, told the Nikkei Asian Review in an interview. "Everyone needs additional routes. No one wants to depend on one route, and no one likes to put all eggs into the same basket."

Gurbanov said Azerbaijan has a positive view of both the Belt and Road and the INSTC, and is benefiting from both, though his country will "utilize the INSTC more."

"When you look at future possibilities of north-south [transport] ... In 2019 we plan to carry 2 million tons minimum, and it will increase in time as people will [become aware of] the route," he said. "In five years I think we can reach 10 million to 12 million tons."

India, meanwhile, is on the move elsewhere. In February, it achieved a major diplomatic breakthrough at another key point on the Indian Ocean, right under China's nose. It finalized an agreement with Oman that will allow Indian naval vessels to access the strategic port of Duqm. Under the pact, India will use the port for logistical support and ship maintenance.

Beijing has been investing heavily in an industrial park near the Omani port. "Certainly, that deal was completely unforeseeable," Murakami said. Access to both Duqm and Chabahar enhances India's ability to deter Chinese maritime expansion in the region.

An X-factor for both India and China remains Iran's global standing. In May, U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to decide whether to reimpose some sanctions on Tehran.

National interests are becoming increasingly entangled, and the 21st-century Great Game is about to enter an unpredictable new phase.

Nikkei staff writer Sinan Tavsan in Istanbul contributed to this article.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby yensoy » 24 Apr 2018 20:29

Peregrine wrote:IMHO : In addition to all the reasons stated by various members here, the MOST IMPORTANT REASON is the Access of Terroristan to a Terroristani Extension of the proposed INDIA - BANGLADESH - MYANMAR - CHINA ROAD SYSTEM.

This will then provide the Chinese Multiple Entries and Exits TO & FROM India i.e. Via 1. Myanmar, 2. Bangladesh, 3. Nepal and finally 4. Terroristan.

India will easily spot the Chinese & Myanmarese Intruders but not the Bangladeshi, Nepalese and Terroristanis. I need not explain this point as the reason is patent to you. We will be flooded with the last three types as we will unable to differentiate the difference between the normal Indians and these three origins.

Thus I hope I have joined you in wanting to ENSURE the INDIA never Joins CPEC and possibly even the India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Myanmar and then China Highway!

Cheers Image


I will take a contrarian view here.

Of all the stuff under the umbrella of OBOR, the only thing of value to us is the BCIM corridor. Why? Which country would we like to connect with? The most important country in the world for us, India. Yes, BCIM corridor is a way for us to access NE India from the rest of the country.

BCIM will give us right to transit through Bangladesh. Since this will come under a multilateral treaty, Banglas will have to be ok with it. Any disturbance to transit, and we pull the plug. We keep the roads narrow to only allow what we need to pass through. We appoint our most diligent/inefficient and slow customs officials and give them incentives to process things as "thoroughly" as they can 8) for trucks entering India from the East. We don't allow left hand drive vehicles, forcing trans-shipment. Yet we keep the India-Bangla-India path fully functional and buzzing with activity. All hail Xi for his farsighted ideas.

chetak
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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby chetak » 25 Apr 2018 00:42

Peregrine wrote:
ArjunPandit wrote:China is desperate to bring India into the OBOR/BRI fold. They know that only hope of recovering any dues from this ponzi scheme is by bringing India in. OBOR is toast without India. India would do well to not touch with it. We can definitely use it after the collapse of china
chetak wrote:Their desperation has reached panic proportions.

They are throwing everything at us, using nepal, russia, pakis, iran, afghanistan, bangladesh, srilanka, trying to bully sushma swaraj into agreeing, and pulling out all stops on the international arena as well.

We need a very clear read on why the hans have become so very desperate to drag India into their ponzi scheme. Completely avoiding all generalities, we need a clear and dispassionate read on their real reasons to bamboozle India.

What exactly has changed, why is India their only solution and what happens to India after that??


"Another" stoopid Indian political party and many are impatiently waiting in the wings, hoping to pocket tons of han money, and they would accept the han offer in a flash.

The hans are already influencing, financing such "cooperative" political parties, in the run up to the 2019 circus, and and their gaddar leaders, judging from their "caught with their pants down" "secret" talks with the mafia gang during the doklam standoff.

How many other "mainland china" lunch or dinner tête-à-têtes went unreported or simply sailed under the radar?? or were covered up by the money grubbing presstitutes??

This is how the hans have always operated in all their "investment" ventures. Using gaddars like the rajapaksa family in SL to force their way into the tent. India also does not lack for such gaddar families.

Seeing the current predicament of SL, the rajapaksa family should have been jailed for traitorous acts against their own country.

Nepal is already in the death grip of the hans and they are hoping to leverage that to break into India and nepal seems very very keen to oblige the hans.
chetak Ji :

Not only you have presented us with an excellent post but have asked the RIGHT QUESTIONS.

IMHO : In addition to all the reasons stated by various members here, the MOST IMPORTANT REASON is the Access of Terroristan to a Terroristani Extension of the proposed INDIA - BANGLADESH - MYANMAR - CHINA ROAD SYSTEM.

This will then provide the Chinese Multiple Entries and Exits TO & FROM India i.e. Via 1. Myanmar, 2. Bangladesh, 3. Nepal and finally 4. Terroristan.

India will easily spot the Chinese & Myanmarese Intruders but not the Bangladeshi, Nepalese and Terroristanis. I need not explain this point as the reason is patent to you. We will be flooded with the last three types as we will unable to differentiate the difference between the normal Indians and these three origins.

Thus I hope I have joined you in wanting to ENSURE the INDIA never Joins CPEC and possibly even the India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Myanmar and then China Highway!

Cheers Image


Sirji,

Thanks for pointing out the above points. These points have great merit in being able to cause mischief and also in destabilizing us by allowing free movement of jehadis, both internal and external varities.

Rats always need multiple entry and exit points with the ability to adjust the local environment to suit their taste. Just like they have done in WB and ASSAM.

But just like you and many others here suspect, I too suspect that a much deeper game is afoot.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby ArjunPandit » 25 Apr 2018 03:34

Sushma swaraj's statement on OBOR terrorism has dashed any meaningful outcomes on any of the areas of engagement with China. NSG , trade deficit and support to terroristan.
The fact is they consider themselves as wold supahpawar, with no scope for anyone else apart from may be US (for the time being), will not let them 'lose face' and not negotiate in an open manner. I would be very mistrustful of any chinese promises. they are not even worth anything

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby chetak » 25 Apr 2018 09:11

ArjunPandit wrote:Sushma swaraj's statement on OBOR terrorism has dashed any meaningful outcomes on any of the areas of engagement with China. NSG , trade deficit and support to terroristan.
The fact is they consider themselves as wold supahpawar, with no scope for anyone else apart from may be US (for the time being), will not let them 'lose face' and not negotiate in an open manner. I would be very mistrustful of any chinese promises. they are not even worth anything


China has always been transactional in its policies.

Gives very little and takes away a lot from any "bilateral".

On NSG, they will hold on to this carrot as long as they think it will pay dividends. But we don't consider NSG==CPEC/OBOR, not by a long shot and they jolly well know it too.

They cannot be trusted to keep their word in any agreement, in fact they have taken taqiya to a new level by openly lying to your face and knowing that you know that they are lying. This is what they have been doing for years in the so called border talks.

We need to up our game and retaliate in ways that will really hurt them and trade is one such area. Just insist on addressing the balance of payments issue between the two countries. No earthly reason why India should subsidize a very large number of jobs in china.

Use natsec to block cheeni investment into undesirable areas and sectors like real estate, banking and all financial services and even e commerce markets.

the ameriki walmart has just entered and that's actually an entry of the chinese because almost all walmarts products are cheeni sourced.

alibaba has also wormed its way in.

Just make subtle changes in policies, reporting requirements, using natsec as the excuse to remain non transparent, just like they are.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby arun » 25 Apr 2018 15:15

Extract from External Affairs Minister's Address at SCO Council of Foreign Ministers, Beijing (April 24, 2018) dealing with cross border connectivity.

India points out to the Peoples Republic of China that it has no intention whatsoever of joining PRC controlled BRI / OBOR / CPEC by saying that for connectivity to succeed “respect for sovereignty is essential”. To pre-empt any self-servingly pious mealy-mouthed PRC comments designed to denigrate India while boosting the PRC, further points out India’s extensive track record of co-operating with other countries for enhanced connectivity by mentioning the various connectivity projects India is involved which interestingly consists of connectivity projects in which the PRC has not been allowed to dominate:

Excellencies,

Connectivity with SCO countries is India’s priority. We want connectivity to pave the way for cooperation and trust between our societies.

For this, respect for sovereignty is essential. Inclusivity, transparency and sustainability are imperative.India has cooperated extensively with international community for enhanced connectivity.

This is evident from our involvement with the

(i) International North-South Transport Corridor,
(ii) the Chabahar Port Development,
(iii) the Ashgabat Agreement,
(iv) India-Myanmar-Thailand Highway Project,
(v) Bangladesh-Butan-India-Nepal (BBIN) Initiative amongst others.

India has operationalized the air freight corridor between Kabul, Kandahar, New Delhi and Mumbai last year.

All these initiatives would further strengthen the entire spectrum of multi-modal networks in the SCO space.


From our Ministry Of External Affairs Website:

External Affairs Minister's Address at SCO Council of Foreign Ministers, Beijing (April 24, 2018)

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Prem » 25 Apr 2018 22:12

chetak wrote:
ArjunPandit wrote:Sushma swaraj's statement on OBOR terrorism has dashed any meaningful outcomes on any of the areas of engagement with China. NSG , trade deficit and support to terroristan.
The fact is they consider themselves as wold supahpawar, with no scope for anyone else apart from may be US (for the time being), will not let them 'lose face' and not negotiate in an open manner. I would be very mistrustful of any chinese promises. they are not even worth anything


China has always been transactional in its policies.Gives very little and takes away a lot from any "bilateral".On NSG, they will hold on to this carrot as long as they think it will pay dividends. But we don't consider NSG==CPEC/OBOR, not by a long shot and they jolly well know it too.
T.


Been Watching Qin:Empire of Alliance and PRC today is exact parallel to same thinking I.e give 3 inches to take 5 inches and keep doing it till opportunity arrives to grab all. Their social political construct is such that they will always remain enemy even when they are "friend" as normal norms do not apply on these Chu, Qin and Weis.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Philip » 26 Apr 2018 09:14

To keep Nepal " inside the tent, I suggested over z year ago that we offer it a port-cum-SEZ through which
almost all goods to land-locked Nepal can come via sea.They do so now, but laboriously through Bengal.Having their own " leased" port at friendship prices by India, where the security aspect is looked after by India, will further consolidate ties between us.

This would be far easier than getting anything from China! In face if we even have a tie-up with BDesh, for easier access to our N- East, either through BDesh south of the Siliguri corridor or directly from Chittagong/ Cox's Bazaar,in similar fashion to what has been proposed for Nepal, the benefits for all 3 nations is huge.This way Chinese threats at Doklam get trumped if BD gives us a corridor.

The talk when Mr.Oli came down about riverine traffic was a good step, but offering them an SEZ port a real winner.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby arun » 26 Apr 2018 10:20

SCO Summit 2018: India not mentioned in portion of joint communique backing China's OBOR project

I hope our Ministry of External Affairs is aware and doing something about all of this. This is the first time I have come across where a Press Communique has purportedly been jointly issued, in some languages and not in another language, without unanimity of meeting participants over contents, in this case support for OBOR / BRI / CPEC.

The Peoples Republic of China is being sneaky about the Press Communique issued after the meeting of SCO Foreign Ministers.

The English language SCO websilink has no mention of the Press Communique issued after the meeting of SCO Foreign Ministers. Indeed the English language SCO weblink has no entry after April 17, 2018 and certainly none for April 24, 2018 when the alleged Press Communique of the meeting of SCO Foreign Ministers was purportedly released.
See here:

SCO English Website

On the other hand the PRC has snuck in mention of the Press Communique in the Russian language and Chinese language sections

The SCO Russian Language website (Click Here) does have an April 24, 2018 entry (Russian April 24 Click Here) translated excerpt of which follows:

2018/04/24

Information message on the meeting of the Council of Foreign Ministers of the Member States of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization ……………………..

The Ministers of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, confirming the support of China's One-Way, One-Way Initiative, spoke in favor of using the potential of the countries of the region, international organizations and multilateral associations in order to form a broad, open, mutually beneficial and equal partnership.


Likewise the SCO Russian Language website (Click Here) does have an April 24, 2018 entry (Chinese April 24 Click Here) translated excerpt of which follows:

2018 / 04 / 24

Press Communique of the Foreign Ministers' Council Meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Member States

The foreign ministers of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan reiterated their support for the "Belt and Road Initiative" proposed by China. All parties support the use of the potential of the countries, international organizations and multilateral institutions in the region to establish a broad, open, mutually beneficial and equal partnership in the SCO region.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby panduranghari » 26 Apr 2018 19:51

US deep state is facing some issues due to the Trump induced trade war. I suspect they will go full throttle to back Xi's BRI. Is BRI a ploy by the London based banking cabal to start another round of colonisation?


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