OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

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Philip
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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Philip » 20 Aug 2018 14:19

China is p*ssed off if the Indo-Pacific strategic concept gets real teeth through the Quad or Quad+ alliance of nations whose common interests is curtailing China in the IP region.Chinese analysts have ad nauseum spewed out articles in which they advise India not to join any anti-China grouping and that the talk of the Quad is merely "dogs barking".These inscrutable orientals ask what relevance has India to the Pacific? The very fact that much of what is ASEAN has been called "Indo-China",bordering the "Indo-China Sea" (not S,China Sea),"Indonesia" and the Dutch east Indies now called the Philippines,are rich with some of the greatest architectural monuments in the world clearly of Indian origin. Take Boroubudur and Bali in Indonesia, Angkor Wat and the great sites of the Khmer dynasty spread across Cambodia,the enormous heritage of Burma/Myanmar,etc. Not to mention the spread of Buddhism into Japan and China itself! While there is so much of Indian influence in the Asia-Pacific region,by comparison the influence of China is far less than that of India's.Can anyone mention one great Chinese architectural marvel outside China in Asia The answer is a great ZERO!
Here is an interesting piece n India's growing influence in the AP region.

http://www.atimes.com/indian-influence- ... na-region/
Why Indian influence is rising in the Indochina region
By SUDHANSHU TRIPATHI AUGUST 1, 2017 12

http://www.defencenews.in/article/China ... nce-570095
China riled by the formation of an Indo-Pacific Alliance
Sunday, August 19, 2018
By: Sunday Guardian Live

Chinese academics, like others, have attributed the coinage of the “Indo-Pacific” construct to Gurpreet S. Khurana, who first explained it as a concept in an academic paper titled “Security of Sea Lines: Prospects for India-Japan Cooperation” published in the Strategic Analysis in January 2007. The construct referred to a maritime space stretching from the littorals of East Africa and West Asia, across the Indian Ocean and western Pacific Ocean, to the littorals of East Asia. The term didn’t find much currency in the Chinese discourse—even if it was referred to by the Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe during his speech to Indian parliamentarians in August 2007—for they believed that India was out of the Asia-Pacific construct and since when it became a Pacific or an Indo-Pacific country? Irrespective of Chinese reservations, the construct has been readily accepted by the Indian strategic community and the national leadership alike.

China started to feel discomfort as the construct started to appear in the official discourses of governments. It appeared in “Defending Australia and its National Interests”, a defence white paper issued by the Australian government on 13 May 2013, where the term was referred to as many as 56 times. The paper referred to it as a new “strategic arc” and “system” in which the US ally, Japan will remain a “major power”, with India playing an “increasingly influential role”. In June 2013, the idea of the Indo-Pacific Economic Corridor was conceptualised during the US-India Strategic Dialogue of 2013 in New Delhi. The joint statement that was issued at the end of the dialogue reaffirmed India and the United States’ shared vision for peace and stability in Asia and in the Indian and Pacific Oceans.

Both “reaffirmed the importance of maritime security, unimpeded commerce and freedom of navigation, and the peaceful resolution of maritime disputes in accordance with international law”. In the joint statement issued during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s US visit in June 2017, India and the US pledged to promote stability across the Indo-Pacific region, increasing free and fair trade, and strengthening energy linkages. Similar statements emanated from the first and the second quadrilateral talks between Japan, India, the US and Australia in 2017 and 2018, however, the construct of Indo-Pacific must not be confused with the formation of the “Quad”. More recently, during the Indo-Pacific Business Forum held in Washington, Donald Trump’s administration announced $113.5 million in immediate funding to seed new strategic initiatives in areas such as enhancing US private investment, improving digital connectivity and cybersecurity, promoting sustainable infrastructure development, and strengthening energy security and access.

References to “free and open Indo-Pacific” have often been interpreted as countering China’s assertiveness in the South-China Sea and the Indian Ocean Region with willing and able US allies in the region. Since the US has deemed China as a “coercive”, “revisionist” power following “predatory” economic policies, and with India being projected as a “lynchpin” in the US strategy, China has denounced the Indo-Pacific Strategy as a containment theory aimed at diminishing China’s geopolitical and economic influence. Undoubtedly, the Indo-Pacific Strategy is the outcome of the balance of power shifting from the West to the East. It has been estimated that by 2050 the region will account for over 80% of the global GDP.

Earlier in May, when the US renamed its Pacific Command (PACOM) as US Indo-Pacific Command (USIPC), China reacted strongly in an editorial published by the Chinese edition of the Global Times, saying that the “two long-term goals of the United States’ Indo-Pacific Strategy is the mutual strategic depletion of China and India”. It compared the strategy to “a big pit”, which it said, would bury the rise of both China and India. Chinese scholars such as Yang Rui and Wang Shida from the Communication University of China and China Institute of Contemporary International Relations posit that India will continue to readjust its policies to best serve the Indo-Pacific Strategy, so as to realise the “dream of becoming a great power”, meanwhile, counter China’s “Belt and Road Initiative” and “balance China’s rise” by joining the US and other countries. Li Haidong, a professor at the China Foreign Affairs University’s Institute of International Relations says that the main purpose of US’ Indo-Pacific Strategy is to establish an Indo-Pacific geopolitical order that targets China on the one hand, and formulates a trade rule, centred on the US on the other.

As regards the US injecting $113.5 million in the region, Chinese academics see the security in command shifting to economy in command in the Indo-Pacific, but are still sceptical of the US and its allies committing investment in the region. Ma Xiaolin, a professor at the Beijing Foreign Studies University, has snubbed it as the “economic edition” of the Indo-Pacific Strategy working in tandem with its “military edition” in the region, the main motive of which remains to counter China’s “Belt and Road Initiative”. Prof Ma has pronounced it as the “barking dogs seldom bite” phenomenon. According to him, since the Indo-Pacific region overlaps with China’s “21st Century Maritime Silk Road”, Southeast and South Asian countries eagerly want to board the “Belt and Road” ship and improve their lot. China’s strong economic ties with the ASEAN, irrespective of its disputes with various member states in the South China Sea, will make it difficult for the Southeast Asian and smaller South Asian countries to forgo their interests, believe Chinese scholars.

As far as India is concerned, they still question India’s relevance in the Indo-Pacific strategy. In the words of Zhang Feng, an adjunct professor at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, India, undoubtedly is an Indian Ocean country. When did it become a “Pacific country” or an “Indo-Pacific country”? According to him, India’s primary concerns are in the Indian Ocean, therefore, its strategy is the “Indian Ocean Strategy” and not the “Indo-Pacific Strategy”; and it is merely because of the confluence of its “Act East Policy” and Southeast Asia that it has endorsed the Indo-Pacific Strategy. He argues that the bottlenecks in India’s strategic capability have limited India’s investment in the South China Sea and Pacific region. He believes that India rejoining the Quad was the outcome of its malevolent relations with China before and during the Doklam confrontation. Post the Doklam truce, especially after the Narendra Modi-Xi Jinping unofficial summit in Wuhan, China appears to be very positive about what Prime Minister Modi spoke at the Shangri-la Dialogue in Singapore.

Was it a rebalancing of India-China relations at the unofficial summit or was India being sensitive towards Chinese sensitivities? Or was it about the differing perceptions on Indo-Pacific and India’s own vision of SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region), which made Prime Minister Modi make it clear during his speech at the Shangri-la Dialogue that “India does not see the Indo-Pacific Region as a strategy or as a club of limited members? Nor as a grouping that seeks to dominate. And by no means do we consider it as directed against any country”? India’s vision for Indo-Pacific, according to the Chinese, is a positive one. And, why not when the “six elements” such as openness, inclusivity, common prosperity and security, globalisation and connectivity, except “freedom of navigation”, largely conform to the Chinese notion of the “new type of international relations” and “community of shared future” paradigm? Indo-Pacific Strategy is certainly not limited to the Quad, as it has already incorporated Mongolia and Indonesia in it, with many more likely to join. The security and economic engagement of the US and its partners in the Indo-Pacific will continue to make China nervous, however, integrating security, economic, and development investments still may be a difficult task.


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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby TKiran » 20 Aug 2018 15:30

Can anyone mention one great Chinese architectural marvel with historical significance inside China? The answer is a great wall of China and nothing else. In fact, the great wall of China is a historical blot on China, as it shows that China historically is very small compared to what it is today.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Neshant » 21 Aug 2018 09:17

TKiran wrote:Can anyone mention one great Chinese architectural marvel with historical significance inside China? The answer is a great wall of China and nothing else. In fact, the great wall of China is a historical blot on China, as it shows that China historically is very small compared to what it is today.


The Forbidden City.

There is the Potala Palace. But that's its Tibet, not China.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby SSridhar » 21 Aug 2018 14:57

X-post from the Neutering thread . . .

Great News, guys.

''We can't afford, we can't repay': Malaysia scraps China-backed projects - AP
Multibillion-dollar China-financed projects in Malaysia have been canceled because they aren't needed and will saddle the country with an unsustainable amount of debt, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad told reporters on the final day of a visit to Beijing on Tuesday.

Mahathir told Malaysian reporters that both Chinese President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang understood the reasons behind the cancellations and "accepted them." China had earlier defended the investments as bringing tangible benefits to both sides.

The projects, comprising a $20 billion East Coast Rail Link and two energy pipelines worth $2.3 billion, had already been suspended pending renegotiation.

"It's all about pouring in too much money which we cannot afford, we cannot repay and also because we don't need these projects for Malaysia at this moment," Mahathir said.


While the projects could be restarted in the future if considered necessary, Malaysia's current focus is on reducing the national debt, Mahathir said.

"With that debt, if we are not careful we can become bankrupt," he said, blaming the "stupidity" of the administration of his predecessor, Najib Razak {It was not 'stupidity', he was bribed} , whom he ousted in elections earlier this year and now faces charges of massive corruption.

Malaysia will still have to pay "substantial" penalties to extract itself from the projects and also needs to "find out where money that has been paid for the projects have gone to," Mahathir said.

Days before heading to Beijing, Mahathir was already saying Malaysia didn't need the projects, part of Xi's Belt and Road initiative to build ports, railways and other trade-related infrastructure across Asia, often built by Chinese contractors and financed by loans from Chinese state banks.

Belt and Road projects in Thailand, Sri Lanka and other countries have run into complaints that they are wasteful, too costly, give too little work to local companies or might facilitate embezzlement and other graft.

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OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Peregrine » 21 Aug 2018 15:25

X Posting on the Terroristan Thread

SSridhar wrote:X-post from the Neutering thread . . .

Great News, guys.

''We can't afford, we can't repay': Malaysia scraps China-backed projects
SSridhar Ji :

This is the First Nail in Eleven's - OBOR - CPEC Coffins.

Here is the Link to the FT Article which I am going to "Store for Eternity"!

Losing China-backed projects positive for Malaysia: report - Edward White

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6zT8AyfsFmA


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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby manjgu » 21 Aug 2018 17:12

a wake call for NaPakis !! chinis have bribed their way to win untenable / uneconomic projects ..

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby TKiran » 21 Aug 2018 17:50

OBOR is a prestigious project for eleven. Expect the sleeper cells in Malaysia to be activated.

Still I admire mahatir Mohammed's show of spine, though I didn't like him shaking hands with Indian terrorist Zakir. Eleven may ask Modi's help in ousting mahatir Mohammed. If Modi is wise, he should pressure mahatir to handover Zakir.

Mahatir is a gone case anyway.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby anupmisra » 21 Aug 2018 18:15

TKiran wrote:Eleven may ask Modi's help in ousting mahatir Mohammed.


How do you think Modi can help (in ousting Mahathir Mohammad)?

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby chetak » 21 Aug 2018 18:23

anupmisra wrote:
TKiran wrote:Eleven may ask Modi's help in ousting mahatir Mohammed.


How do you think Modi can help (in ousting Mahathir Mohammad)?


Modi is nobody's fool.

He is politically and economically astute.

India first and keep away from the rest is his motto.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby chetak » 21 Aug 2018 18:28

TKiran wrote:OBOR is a prestigious project for eleven. Expect the sleeper cells in Malaysia to be activated.

Still I admire mahatir Mohammed's show of spine, though I didn't like him shaking hands with Indian terrorist Zakir. Eleven may ask Modi's help in ousting mahatir Mohammed. If Modi is wise, he should pressure mahatir to handover Zakir.

Mahatir is a gone case anyway.


zakir is fine in malayasia.

India does not want him. It is only going through the motions.

the jehadi will come here, our sickular courts will free him and Modi will take the flak.

let zakir rot in malayasia along with mahatir, whose father what goes??

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby yensoy » 21 Aug 2018 19:00

pankajs wrote:http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201807310022.html
Payment due: Pacific islands in the red as debts to China mount

The initial roughly $65 million (7 billion yen) in Chinese lending now exceeds $115 million--almost one-third of Tonga's annual gross domestic product--as interest mounted and the government took out a second loan for road development across the country.

An onerous principal repayment schedule starts in September that will double Tonga's debt financing bill has left the government scrambling.

Tonga's precarious position is indicative of a wider debt-fueled hangover hitting small Pacific economies, stoking fears the region risks falling into financial distress and becoming more susceptible to diplomatic pressure from Beijing.


And voila, Uncle Xi sends the big white ship to Tonga to gently remind them that he is looking out for their welfare, and that if a white ship can be so awesome, how awesome will a grey ship, or heaven forbid a black floating/sinking thingy be?

Chinese hospital ship Ark Peace ends visit to Tonga http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-08/20/c_137404916.htm

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby pankajs » 21 Aug 2018 19:34

chetak wrote:
TKiran wrote:OBOR is a prestigious project for eleven. Expect the sleeper cells in Malaysia to be activated.

Still I admire mahatir Mohammed's show of spine, though I didn't like him shaking hands with Indian terrorist Zakir. Eleven may ask Modi's help in ousting mahatir Mohammed. If Modi is wise, he should pressure mahatir to handover Zakir.

Mahatir is a gone case anyway.


zakir is fine in malayasia.

India does not want him. It is only going through the motions.

the jehadi will come here, our sickular courts will free him and Modi will take the flak.

let zakir rot in malayasia along with mahatir, whose father what goes??

Yup. I too don't expect Modi to spend political capital trying to get this jihadi back. He will take him if offered free though.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Philip » 22 Aug 2018 18:29

Media today.Mahathie stays firm and told XI Gins face to face that he was not interested in gettjng into a SL like debt trap.Eco- colonialism replacing colonialism of yester- year.The report said that this will have its effect on Pak too, as a Muslim Malaysia has rejected OBOR.At 90+, Mahaghir has nothing to lose for his cojntry.It remains to be seen if Anwar has the same guts after Mahathir passes on.Imran too is a worried man about the Chinese debt trap.

This is an opportunity for India.With every new Paki PM, there is a honeymoon period.Cricketer Imran mah have a longer " innings"! He would like to have a quieter border with India and better relations, but the attitude of the Paki army and ISI may want the largesse of Chin taels for their military toys.But Malaysia's rebuff will make waves across Asia and Africa.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby manjgu » 23 Aug 2018 05:55

but i think people from all political parties in Napakistan have invested so much energy into cEPC as the 'game changer' that they all will look quite foolish if they were to withdraw from CPEC !! its like being without ur u/w once the tide has gone down . also all leaders must have been bribed heavily that they cant even dream of stopping CPEC now... i scaned paki news channels and there is not even a whisper about Malaysia walking out of CPEC !!

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Singha » 23 Aug 2018 10:32

https://money.cnn.com/2018/08/22/techno ... index.html

Aus govt bans huawei from supplying 5G equipment.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby TKiran » 23 Aug 2018 10:54

^^^^mota bhai would not allow such ban in India.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby chetak » 24 Aug 2018 19:17

Philip wrote:Media today.Mahathie stays firm and told XI Gins face to face that he was not interested in gettjng into a SL like debt trap.Eco- colonialism replacing colonialism of yester- year.The report said that this will have its effect on Pak too, as a Muslim Malaysia has rejected OBOR.At 90+, Mahaghir has nothing to lose for his cojntry.It remains to be seen if Anwar has the same guts after Mahathir passes on.Imran too is a worried man about the Chinese debt trap.

This is an opportunity for India.With every new Paki PM, there is a honeymoon period.Cricketer Imran mah have a longer " innings"! He would like to have a quieter border with India and better relations, but the attitude of the Paki army and ISI may want the largesse of Chin taels for their military toys.But Malaysia's rebuff will make waves across Asia and Africa.


imran khan niazi is worried about his "cigar cases" being replaced by the real chinese structural members, thereby putting the nether regions of the pakis in real danger.

Also, the malaysian electoral "fiasco" may not be all it seems. It could be seen as a wily and a very clever way of getting out of the han debt clutches. Given the swift and decisive day the new govt acted, it appears preplanned and it would have been in the prior knowledge of the han intelligence.

Surprising it appears that there was not too much of a protest from the hans for now and the global times lot seem to be unusually quiet after such a massive blow.

The whole malaysian thing has gone of just a tad too slickly for my comfort. Given the hans, this negotiations should have been long and protracted.

The hans have certainly lost huge face and the new paki govt is watching carefully. The paki army must be flummoxed and floundering with the CPEC.

Hasn't some sort of reshuffling already hit the paki army lot of generals??

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Deans » 25 Aug 2018 21:59

TKiran wrote:OBOR is a prestigious project for eleven. Expect the sleeper cells in Malaysia to be activated.

Still I admire mahatir Mohammed's show of spine, though I didn't like him shaking hands with Indian terrorist Zakir. Eleven may ask Modi's help in ousting mahatir Mohammed. If Modi is wise, he should pressure mahatir to handover Zakir.

Mahatir is a gone case anyway.


It would be worse for China if some African / Central Asian dictator has the completed project and simply refuses to pay. What can China do in such a situation. They lack the ability to carry out regime change. This situation can arise for any number of reasons e.g.
- Venezuela - country is bust and can't pay
- Sri Lanka - President is unexpectedly replaced. New Govt has popular mandate to revisit deals with China.
- Others - Dictator gets greedy, decides not to repay China, seeks popular support for shaky regime by telling people China is screwing them.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Bart S » 26 Aug 2018 02:45

TKiran wrote:^^^^mota bhai would not allow such ban in India.



IIRC most of the Jio equipment is from Cisco and Samsung. But carry on with your agenda of portraying China as some invincible force.

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OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Peregrine » 27 Aug 2018 23:47

X Posted on the Analyzing CPEC Thread

India natural partner in Belt and Road: China

India is a natural partner in China's Belt and Road project and should not be paranoid about its key artery in the disputed Kashmir as it won't affect Beijing's neutral stance, a top Chinese government official said on Monday.

"Historically, India was an important country on the ancient Silk Road and it is fair to say that India was a natural partner in the ancient (Silk Road) and (is one) in the Belt and Road initiative," China's Assistant Foreign Minister Zhang Jun said here.

India has opposed Belt and Road's flagship project China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) as it cuts through the disputed Kashmir.

"China has repeatedly stressed that CPEC is an economic initiative. Implementing CPEC does not change China's position on Kashmir," Zhang said.

China is building a huge network of roads, highways, ports and sea lanes to connect Asia with Europe. Many countries including India suspect the project is a China's geostrategic ploy.

"Let me say a few points. First, India is an important neighbour of China. Both China and India are emerging economies and developing countries. Under the leadership of our leaders, China and India relations have exhibited a very good momentum of growth and entered a phase of development.

"I think we can all recall that since April, it has been only three months, President Xi and Prime Minister Modi met in Wuhan, in Qingdao, and in Johannesburg in South Africa.

"Three important meetings between of the two leaders and they have reached important understandings which added fresh and strong impetus to our bilateral ties," Zhang added.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Neshant » 28 Aug 2018 12:39

2 things will become evident within the next few years :

1) There is no way the OBOR infrastructure built in Pakistan is worth anywhere near the inflated $50 billion price tag China has claimed.
That realization will eventually dawn on Pakistan and it will stop paying.

2) There is no end market for OBOR road, rail, power and port building schemes.
It will run at a loss for ages.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Peregrine » 28 Aug 2018 16:02

Neshant wrote:2 things will become evident within the next few years :

1) There is no way the OBOR infrastructure built in Pakistan is worth anywhere near the inflated $50 billion price tag China has claimed.
That realization will eventually dawn on Pakistan and it will stop paying.

2) There is no end market for OBOR road, rail, power and port building schemes.
It will run at a loss for ages.
Nshant Ji :

May Thy Mouth May Always Be Full of Clarified Butter i.e. Ghee and Honey.

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OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Peregrine » 28 Aug 2018 22:08

X Posted on the Analyzing CPEC & Terroristan Threads

China defends ‘New Silk Road’ against debt complaints – AP

BEIJING: Chinese officials on Monday defended Beijing’s initiative to build a “New Silk Road” of railways and other infrastructure across Asia against complaints it leaves host countries with too much debt after Malaysia canceled two high-profile projects.

The officials said President Xi Jinping’s signature foreign policy initiative is creating assets that are needed by developing countries but might take time to pay off.

The deputy chairman of the Cabinet planning agency, Ning Jizhe, rejected what he said were foreign news reports that blamed the initiative for debt problems. “People’s livelihoods and economic development have been boosted,” Ning said at a news conference. “No ‘debt trap’ has been created.”

Other governments welcomed Xi’s initiative in 2013 in a region the Asian Development Bank says needs more than $26 trillion of infrastructure investment by 2030 to keep economies growing.

The initiative, called “One Belt, One Road” in Chinese and the “Belt and Road Initiative” in English, is a business venture, not aid. Chinese officials say financing is on commercial terms. Beijing wants to attract non-Chinese investors but that has happened only on a few of the hundreds of railway, power plant, highway and other projects.

Some governments including the United States, Japan and India worry Beijing is trying to build a China-centered structure that will erode their influence. Some Chinese-led projects have run into complaints that they are too costly and give too little work to local contractors. Some governments including Thailand, Tanzania, Sri Lanka and Nepal have scrapped, scaled back or renegotiated projects.

This month, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad canceled projects including a $20 billion railway he said his country cannot afford. Last December, Sri Lanka sold control of its port of Hambantota to a Chinese state-owned company after falling behind in repaying $1.5bn in loans from Beijing.

Examples of “China's Action in case the Debtor Nations are unable to Repay – Service their Chinese Debt:

Sighting land

1. The penalty that Sri Lanka had to pay was land, swapped along with operational control of the Hambantota Port, in exchange for the debt that they could no longer service.

2. In 2011, the government of Tajikistan announced that they had just concluded a deal with the government of China, ceding control of 1,100 square kilometres of mountainous land to the Chinese under the garb of settling a centuries-old border dispute. The agreement had been reached in 1999, but finalised precisely at a time when Tajikistan’s debt difficulties began. The territory represents one per cent of the country’s total land area.

Chinese authorities choose projects “very carefully” and examine host country finances to make sure they can repay loans, said a deputy commerce minister, Qian Keming. However, he said they would welcome the participation of developed countries and international organizations to improve transparency and guarantee “high quality” projects.

“These physical facilities will play a long-term role,” said Qian. “But we don’t necessarily see a return in the short run.” A deputy foreign minister, Zhang Jun, said “Belt and Road” officials were preparing to appoint an advisory board of former political leaders, academics and experts. He said an “international commercial expert committee” was appointed this week to give legal advice.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Neshant » 28 Aug 2018 22:42

Sensing Pakistan will not pay the alleged amount owed for China built OBOR infrastructure, China is hoping to offload Pakistan's OBOR debt on the IMF.

----

US to Block IMF Bailout Package to Pakistan, Djibouti Over China Debt Trap

https://eurasiantimes.com/pakistan-economy-imf-us/

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby nvishal » 30 Aug 2018 17:32

Image

Reported Chinese military base in Afghanistan motivated by BRI expansion; China’s greater involvement in peace process likely
Chinese media, with a track record of reliable sources in the Chinese government, reported on 28 August that China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) had begun constructing a military base in Afghanistan’s Badakhshan province.

The base will be located along the Wakhan Corridor, a narrow strip of territory bordering China’s Xinxiang province, Pakistan, and Tajikistan. Quoting unnamed PLA sources, the reports claimed that China planned to deploy several hundred soldiers to the base once construction is completed to assist the Afghan government’s counterterrorism efforts, but no time frame was outlined. Neither the Chinese nor Afghan government has formally confirmed the reports.

https://www.janes.com/article/82637/rep ... ess-likely

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OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Peregrine » 02 Sep 2018 16:59

X Posting on Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat & Analyzing CPEC

China's 'Silk Road' project runs into debt jam

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China's President Xi Jinping says trade with Belt and Road countries has exceeded $5 trillion

China's massive and expanding "Belt and Road" trade infrastructure project is running into speed bumps as some countries begin to grumble about being buried under Chinese debt.

First announced in 2013 by President Xi Jinping, the initiative also known as the "new Silk Road" envisions the construction of railways, roads and ports across the globe, with Beijing providing billions of dollars in loans to many countries.

Five years on, Xi has found himself defending his treasured idea as concerns grow that China is setting up debt traps in countries which may lack the means to pay back the Asian giant.

"It is not a China club," Xi said in a speech on Monday to mark the project's anniversary, describing Belt and Road as an "open and inclusive" project.

Xi said China's trade with Belt and Road countries had exceeded $5 trillion, with outward direct investment surpassing $60 billion.

But some are starting to wonder if it is worth the cost.

During a visit to Beijing in August, Malaysia's Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad said his country would shelve three China-backed projects, including a $20 billion railway.

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China's "new Silk Road" envisions the construction of railways, roads and ports across the globe

The party of Pakistan's new prime minister, Imran Khan, has vowed more transparency amid fears about the country's ability to repay Chinese loans related to the multi-billion-dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

Meanwhile the exiled leader of the opposition in the Maldives, Mohamed Nasheed, has said China's actions in the Indian Ocean archipelago amounted to a "land grab" and "colonialism", with 80 percent of its debt held by Beijing.

Sri Lanka has already paid a heavy price for being highly indebted to China.

Last year, the island nation had to grant a 99-year lease on a strategic port to Beijing over its inability to repay loans for the $1.4-billion project.

- 'Ambiguous partner' –

"China does not have a very competent international bureaucracy in foreign aid, in expansion of soft power," Anne Stevenson-Yang, co-founder and research director at J Capital Research, told AFP.

"So not surprisingly they're not very good at it, and it brought up political issues like Malaysia that nobody anticipated," she said.

"As the RMB (yuan) becomes weaker, and China is perceived internationally as a more ambiguous partner, it's more likely that the countries will take a more jaundiced eye on these projects."
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China's President Xi Jinping (C) says the initiative is 'not a China club'

The huge endeavour brings much-needed infrastructure improvements to developing countries, while giving China destinations to unload its industrial overcapacity and facilities to stock up on raw materials.

But a study by the Center for Global Development, a US think-tank, found "serious concerns" about the sustainability of the sovereign debt in eight countries receiving Silk Road funds.

Those were Pakistan, Djibouti, Maldives, Mongolia, Laos, Montenegro, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.

The cost of a China-Laos railway project -- $6.7 billion -- represents almost half of the Southeast Asian country's GDP, according to the study.

In Djibouti, the IMF has warned that the Horn of Africa country faces a "high risk of debt distress" as its public debt jumped from 50 percent of GDP in 2014 to 85 percent in 2016.

Africa has long embraced Chinese investment, helping make Beijing the continent's largest trading partner for the past decade.

On Monday, a number of African leaders will gather in Beijing for a summit focused on economic ties which will include talks on the "Belt and Road" programme.

- 'Not a free lunch' -

China bristles at criticism.

At a daily press briefing on Friday, foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying denied that Beijing was saddling its partners with onerous debt, saying that its loans to Sri Lanka and Pakistan were only a small part of those countries' overall foreign debt.

"It's unreasonable that money coming out of Western countries is praised as good and sweet, while coming out of China it's sinister and a trap," she said.

Stevenson-Yang said China's loans are quoted in dollar terms, "but in reality they're lending in terms of tractors, shipments of coal, engineering services and things like that, and they ask for repayment in hard currency."

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Sri Lanka has already paid a heavy price for being highly indebted to China

Standard & Poor's said Beijing structures the infrastructure projects as long-term concessions, with a Chinese firm operating the facility for a period of 20 to 30 years while splitting the proceeds with the local counterpart or government.

The head of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde, raised concerns about potential debt problems in April and advocated greater transparency.

"It's not a free lunch, it's something where everybody chips in," she said.

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OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Peregrine » 04 Sep 2018 18:33

X Posted on the Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat & Analyzing Threads

‘Debt colonialism’ fears as China puts $60bn into Africa – Didi Tang

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President Xi claimed that there were no strings attached to the money

China has pledged $60 billion in loans and investments in Africa, strengthening its grip on the continent in a show of financial firepower and strategic intent.

The package, announced by President Xi at a gathering of African leaders, includes loans, credit lines and direct investment as well as a commitment to write off some debt owed by the poorest nations.

China has been criticised for debt colonialism, making loans that it knows states cannot repay then using the debt as leverage to secure land or strategic infrastructure.

China’s investment in Africa in the past decade has been prodigious and financing has more recently been accompanied by more troops; last year it opened its first overseas military base in Djibouti, east Africa.

The financial package includes $20 billion in credit, $15 billion in aid, interest-free loans and concessional loans, a $10 billion fund for China-Africa development, $10 billion in investments by Chinese companies and a $5 billion fund for African imports. Mr Xi also pledged to set up a security fund to provide military aid and support for intelligence and anti-terrorist efforts.

Chinese investments in Africa this century involve mining concessions and the building of ports, railways and roads. They have opened up natural resources including oil, diamonds and metals to power China’s industrial sector. They have also created markets for cheap Chinese-made goods, increased China’s global reach and cemented its position as a superpower.

Mr Xi announced the money at the opening of the third Forum on China-Africa Co-operation in Beijing, attended by all 54 nations on the continent except Swaziland, the last still to recognise Taiwan and with which China has no diplomatic relations.

In 2015 Mr Xi also pledged $60 billion, which he says has been honoured. It has been spent on projects such as a $4 billion railway line from Nairobi to Mombasa on the Kenyan coast, a hydroelectric project in Ethiopia, cobalt and copper mines in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, uranium from Namibia, diamonds from Zimbabwe, a port in Cameroon and the construction of a new administrative capital for Egypt. The forum is Beijing’s most public wooing of African leaders. When it began 18 years ago trade between Africa and China was worth $10 billion a year. It is now more than $220 billion. About a million Chinese citizens live and work in Africa.

Since 2000 China has extended $136 billion in loans to African governments and it now does three times more trade on the continent than the US. It may soon overtake the US as Africa’s primary aid donor after President Trump called for donations to be cut by 35 per cent to about $5.4 billion.

Beijing says that it is working to a different model from western powers and dismisses criticism that its spending amounts to colonialism or a debt trap. “China’s co-operation with Africa is clearly targeted at the major bottlenecks to development,” Mr Xi said. “Resources for our co-operation are not to be spent on any vanity projects but in places where they count the most.”

He touted China’s no-strings approach to investment, which western nations have sometimes linked to human rights or democracy. “We will not interfere in Africa’s internal affairs and do not impose our will on Africa,” Mr Xi said. “China will always be Africa’s good friend, good partner, good brother. No one can sabotage the unity between Chinese and African people.”

President Xi opened the meeting by welcoming the forum’s three newest members — the Gambia, Burkina Faso and Sao Tome and Principe — which have cut diplomatic ties to Taiwan.

China’s involvement is not wholly appreciated in Africa, where some leaders say they are being lured into debt or giving too much away. There are also fears that it could fuel nationalism. To assuage these concerns Mr Xi announced social initiatives including food development, public health schemes, training, education and student exchanges and environmental projects to halt desertification.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby ashish raval » 05 Sep 2018 04:58

has been spent on projects such as a $4 billion railway line from Nairobi to Mombasa on the Kenyan coast,


My friend took Mombasa-Nairobi tran built by Chinese money and was visibly impressed by the quality on par with western standard. Their terminus was like Airports and nicely laid out, cleanliness everywhere, decent price for first class and took less than 5 hours down from overnight journey it used to be in the past. It was reasonably full as well. With these set of infrastructure money being poured in Africa we will be playing catch up game in Africa. Guess we should take advantage of our old trading relationship with African nations and highlight the debt trap consequences to the natives.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby yensoy » 05 Sep 2018 07:55

ashish raval wrote:
has been spent on projects such as a $4 billion railway line from Nairobi to Mombasa on the Kenyan coast,


My friend took Mombasa-Nairobi tran built by Chinese money and was visibly impressed by the quality on par with western standard. Their terminus was like Airports and nicely laid out, cleanliness everywhere, decent price for first class and took less than 5 hours down from overnight journey it used to be in the past. It was reasonably full as well. With these set of infrastructure money being poured in Africa we will be playing catch up game in Africa. Guess we should take advantage of our old trading relationship with African nations and highlight the debt trap consequences to the natives.


That's nice shock and awe, very typical of modern China. Now let's parse the facts:
1. Chinese are great at building new stuff. Not so with maintaining what they have, and definitely no good at retrofitting existing infrastructure. If you are an engineer, you will appreciate why building new stuff is easy, maintaining is challenging and retrofitting is really really hard.
2. If you have the land and the project is paid for, it's not so difficult to build a good railway system. This is a well studied technology which has been around, at a fundamental level, for over a hundred years. Full credit to the Chinese to refine and optimize the execution down to a T, but this is not rocket science. RITES from India used to lay medium speed railway tracks in Iraq and Libya several decades ago.
3. The passenger trains are just for show and tell. The real deal China is after is the goods line so they can pull out resources and pump their exports. We have no idea as to the economics of the passenger service, and let's give it a few years to see if it continues at the same level of quality. "Decent price for first class" to me is an euphemism for subsidized travel to buy peoples support - it can't go on for too long.

There is a lot we can learn from China and a lot to appreciate; however let's not get swayed by everything we see.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby ashish raval » 07 Sep 2018 03:31

True that medium fast trains on diesel electric is not a rocket science but then why have we not being able to have such convenient platforms. If they can do it in nations where they have no footprint and can keep cleanliness and maintain the infrastructure, we are surely doing something not right. If Africans can keep their trains clean, we ought to do a better job at a) keeping our trains clean and b) having awareness to keep our surroundings clean too. Hope it changes with current generation.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby A_Gupta » 07 Sep 2018 07:53

https://nationalinterest.in/mahathir-ro ... f273232f0e
Then Mahathir Mohammed came back out of retirement and led the opposition to an unprecedented victory in this year’s general elections, after accusing Najib of corruption and, well, selling out the country to the Chinese. Once in power he confirmed that he would, as promised during the election campaign, indeed scrap many of the Chinese investment projects as they had plunged Malaysia into unaffordable foreign debt. Then, a few days ago, he went to Beijing and told China’s leaders just that.

You’ve got to hand it to the man – he even asked the Chinese premier for advice on how to get his country out of debt. Well played!

It’s unclear which of the many projects would be scrapped and which ones ‘deferred’, but what is abundantly clear is that Mahathir has delivered a very public, unambiguous blow to Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road business model.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Vasu » 07 Sep 2018 12:10

This news largely went unnoticed. This happened the same time China was hosting African leaders.

Chinese man arrested after calling Kenya's president a 'monkey'

Kenya has arrested a Chinese businessman after a video of him making a string of racist remarks was widely shared on social media, the government said Thursday (Sep 6).

The Chinese national, identified as Liu Jiaqi, has been arrested and is being processed for deportation, said Kenya's immigration department.

In the two and a half minute video shared on Twitter and elsewhere, Liu, who appears to be in the midst of a dispute with one of his employees, is recorded issuing a litany of racist slurs.

"Every one, every Kenyan ... like a monkey, even Uhuru Kenyatta. All of them," he said.

This is not the first time Chinese workers in Kenya have been accused of racism.

Three years ago a small Chinese restaurant in the capital Nairobi was shut down by authorities and the owner charged for operating a "no blacks" policy after 5pm.

Earlier this year Kenyan workers on a new Chinese-built railway alleged racism and discrimination by Chinese staff and managers.

The arrest comes a day after Kenyan police raided the African headquarters of the China Global Television Network in Nairobi, briefly detaining several journalists as part of an ongoing crackdown against illegal immigrants.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Vasu » 07 Sep 2018 12:20

Meanwhile, public perception against China still seems strong in Kenya, despite China building one of its posterchild OBOR projects there, the Nairobi Mombasa rail line. This is from the Kenyan press.

China a threat to Kenya's economy, new survey shows

More Kenyans believe that China constitutes the biggest threat to the country’s economic and political development than the United States of America, a survey shows.

The survey by Ipsos Synovate released on Wednesday revealed that 26 per cent of Kenyans see the Asian country as a threat to the development of Kenya, more than double the perception towards the US which ranks at 12 per cent up.

According to the survey conducted between July 25 and August 2, the unfavourable perception of China comes in the shape of threats posed by its cheap goods, fear of fostering corruption and leading to job losses.

Perception of Kenyans towards China has taken a nosedive since March this year dropping from 34 per cent at that time while US’s has been on the rise since then from 26 percent to the current 35 per cent.


also, this news from 5th September: Worry as China puts SGR funding on hold

President Uhuru Kenyatta’s failure to secure funds for the second phase of the Standard Gauge Railway during this recent visit to China has raised concerns about the future of the flagship project.

Kenya and China Communications Construction Company were already in agreement over the construction of the 267km stretch from Naivasha to Kisumu, with only the finer details of the deal expected to have been finalised during Uhuru’s visit, but this was not to be.

Transport Cabinet Secretary James Macharia said the Kenyan delegation even carried the pre-drawn contract to Beijing during the China Africa Forum (FOCAC). Chinese Premier Xi Jinping, who has been criticised for his approach of overburdening Africa with unsustainable debt, however, was said to have deferred a decision on President Uhuru’s request for a grant of half of the Sh380 billion that the project will cost.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby kit » 07 Sep 2018 12:31

Deans wrote:
TKiran wrote:OBOR is a prestigious project for eleven. Expect the sleeper cells in Malaysia to be activated.

Still I admire mahatir Mohammed's show of spine, though I didn't like him shaking hands with Indian terrorist Zakir. Eleven may ask Modi's help in ousting mahatir Mohammed. If Modi is wise, he should pressure mahatir to handover Zakir.

Mahatir is a gone case anyway.


It would be worse for China if some African / Central Asian dictator has the completed project and simply refuses to pay. What can China do in such a situation. They lack the ability to carry out regime change. This situation can arise for any number of reasons e.g.
- Venezuela - country is bust and can't pay
- Sri Lanka - President is unexpectedly replaced. New Govt has popular mandate to revisit deals with China.
- Others - Dictator gets greedy, decides not to repay China, seeks popular support for shaky regime by telling people China is screwing them.


I think the loan collateral go for collection ..for e.g. a port for 100 years !!

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Vikas » 07 Sep 2018 16:13

^How does one occupy a port or slice of land if the local govt refuses to prt with it unless one plans to invade the country. If tomorrow Pakis or Africans refuse to pay back to Chinese, Other than sending army, what other options Chinese have to recover the money ?

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby yensoy » 07 Sep 2018 20:56

Vikas wrote:^How does one occupy a port or slice of land if the local govt refuses to prt with it unless one plans to invade the country. If tomorrow Pakis or Africans refuse to pay back to Chinese, Other than sending army, what other options Chinese have to recover the money ?


Usually there is a corrupt politician involved who depends on Chinese financing to stay in power, and in cases just to stay alive.

They could seize assets held in China, or part of the Chinese banking system (which is why don't park your money in Chinese banks).

At other times, the economy of the country may rely heavily on continued Chinese funding. Even the threat of stopping the funding is enough for the country to give in.

If an external party is able to support the government and/or grease the politicians in power to stand up to the Chinese, they could. There was some discussion to this effect earlier and when I suggested we could back SL economically to kick out the Chinese, some here had strong objections to it.

Sending in the army is a non-starter. I can't recall any situation where a debt has been secured by force, in the last 50 years.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Deans » 07 Sep 2018 22:20

yensoy wrote:
Vikas wrote:^How does one occupy a port or slice of land if the local govt refuses to prt with it unless one plans to invade the country. If tomorrow Pakis or Africans refuse to pay back to Chinese, Other than sending army, what other options Chinese have to recover the money ?


Usually there is a corrupt politician involved who depends on Chinese financing to stay in power, and in cases just to stay alive.

They could seize assets held in China, or part of the Chinese banking system (which is why don't park your money in Chinese banks).

At other times, the economy of the country may rely heavily on continued Chinese funding. Even the threat of stopping the funding is enough for the country to give in.

If an external party is able to support the government and/or grease the politicians in power to stand up to the Chinese, they could. There was some discussion to this effect earlier and when I suggested we could back SL economically to kick out the Chinese, some here had strong objections to it.

Sending in the army is a non-starter. I can't recall any situation where a debt has been secured by force, in the last 50 years.


Almost all countries financed by China are run by dictators. Even where there is a democracy, the country is either run by a strongman (Sri Lanka)
or the Army (Pakistan) who can be bribed.
When a dictator falls, or there is real democracy in a country (e.g. Sirisena in SL) the world community (US/ EU/IMF or even MNC investors) is quite prepared to help out that country. The difference between China and the US is that the US has been able to engineer regime change in the defaulting country, without affecting any policy going against their interests. They have done this by taking along their allies and a reasonable section of the people in that country. China has no real allies and a very limited understanding of the internal dynamics of the countries they have lent to.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby chetak » 07 Sep 2018 22:26

Deans wrote:
yensoy wrote:
Usually there is a corrupt politician involved who depends on Chinese financing to stay in power, and in cases just to stay alive.

They could seize assets held in China, or part of the Chinese banking system (which is why don't park your money in Chinese banks).

At other times, the economy of the country may rely heavily on continued Chinese funding. Even the threat of stopping the funding is enough for the country to give in.

If an external party is able to support the government and/or grease the politicians in power to stand up to the Chinese, they could. There was some discussion to this effect earlier and when I suggested we could back SL economically to kick out the Chinese, some here had strong objections to it.

Sending in the army is a non-starter. I can't recall any situation where a debt has been secured by force, in the last 50 years.


Almost all countries financed by China are run by dictators. Even where there is a democracy, the country is either run by a strongman (Sri Lanka)
or the Army (Pakistan) who can be bribed.
When a dictator falls, or there is real democracy in a country (e.g. Sirisena in SL) the world community (US/ EU/IMF or even MNC investors) is quite prepared to help out that country. The difference between China and the US is that the US has been able to engineer regime change in the defaulting country, without affecting any policy going against their interests. They have done this by taking along their allies and a reasonable section of the people in that country. China has no real allies and a very limited understanding of the internal dynamics of the countries they have lent to.



the chinese soft power is almost non existent which is why they are so heavily and almost exclusively dependant on money power

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Neshant » 10 Sep 2018 06:41

Maybe Pakistanis will be next imprisoned in these camps once they default on their OBOR debt.

China has stated one of the objectives of OBOR is to get Pakistanis to learn Chinese.

Interesting how quiet the OIC, Saudi Arabia and all the Islamic heros are while this is going on a mass scale.

-------

China detaining hundreds of ethnic Uighur Muslims for 'transformation'

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/wor ... 747248.cms

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Vasu » 10 Sep 2018 11:23

Pakistan mulling to review agreements made under CPEC: Report

Pakistan is mulling to consider reviewing or renegotiate agreements under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) as pressure ratchets up over the country’s economic vulnerabilities.

A report in the Financial Times on Sunday said Pakistani advisers and ministers and the new installed PTI government at the centre was going to review BRI investments and renegotiate a trade agreement reached more than 10 years ago, which is advantageous to the Chinese.

According to the adviser to the Prime Minister for Commerce, Textile and Investment Abdul Razzaq Dawood, the previous PML-N government did a poor job of negotiating with China on CPEC and didn’t do their homework properly.

Moreover, Mr Dawood said, “this is one of the things we’re looking at because it’s not fair that Pakistan companies should be disadvantaged.”

However, both Mr Dawood and Mr Umar stated Pakistan would be cautious not to displease China as it mulls to closely review the CPEC agreement signed over the last five years.


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