OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

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anupmisra
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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby anupmisra » 10 Sep 2018 16:56

Now here's why there is a flurry of chini officials to slummabad. This is ouch time or as they say in chinisthan "it is time to pay uncle eleven".

Pakistan seeks to review CPEC agreements: FT

Newly elected Pakistan government of Prime Minister Imran Khan will review its role in China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and renegotiate a trade agreement signed more than a decade ago, UK daily, citing Pakistani officials, reported on Sunday.
According to report, the ministers and the advisors of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf government said the agreement "unfairly benefits Chinese companies."
“The previous government did a bad job negotiating with China on CPEC — they didn’t do their homework correctly and didn’t negotiate correctly so they gave away a lot,” The Financial Times reported, quoting Abdul Razak Dawood, Prime Minister Imran Khan's Adviser on Commerce, Textile, Industry & Production and Investment.
Chinese companies received tax breaks, many breaks and have an undue advantage in Pakistan; this is one of the things we’re looking at because it’s not fair that Pakistan companies should be disadvantaged.”
“I think we should put everything on hold for a year so we can get our act together”
The projects concerned are part of the $62bn China-Pakistan Economic Corridor plan
As per the report, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi, who visited Islamabad at the weekend, indicated that Beijing could be open to renegotiating its 2006 trade deal with Pakistan.
Finance Minister Asad Umar and Advisor Dawood said Pakistan would be careful not to offend Beijing. “We don’t intend to handle this process like Mahathir”


:lol:

BRF was as usual ahead of the curve on making this call. So the chini foreign minister admitted that the agreement was unfair? No more "sweeter than honey, taller than the mountain, deeper than....you know the rest..." cuddly moments?

https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/36649 ... -revisited

chetak
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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby chetak » 12 Sep 2018 20:57

The hans strike again.


China to take over Zambia’s state power company over unpaid debt, report claims

September 9, 2018

China to take over Zambia’s state power company over unpaid debt, report claims

Secret talks are underway for China to take over Zambia's state power company Zesco after the country defaulted on loan payments, a report by Africa Confidential claimed.

The report also said that China previously finalized a takeover of Zambia's national broadcaster ZNBC.

Zambia's President Edgar Lungu has signed at least $8 billion in loans for various projects from China since his inauguration in 2015.

"The long-term outcome could be effective Chinese ownership of the commanding heights of the economy and potentially the biggest loss of national sovereignty since independence," the report said.

Last week, Edgar Lungu was among several other African presidents who attended the China - Africa summit in Beijing where Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged $60 billion in financial support to African nations and denied engaging in a "debt trap" diplomacy.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6mEL9bNMJA

His Excellency Zambia's High Commissioner to South Africa Emmanuel Mwamba, is, however, denying it.




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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Neshant » 16 Sep 2018 09:34

anupmisra wrote:Pakistan seeks to review CPEC agreements: FT


Pakistan is being over-billed by at least 75% on obscenely over-priced OBOR infrastructure.
The infrastructure costs are nowhere near what China claims.

China already knew none of the OBOR routes will ever see any profitable commercial traffic prior to hyping up OBOR as the road to easy money.

But seriously, how dumb are these host nations which agree to take on massive debt thinking that building ports, power stations, roads and bridges will magically result in profitable export industries springing up.

Isn't it the case that industries first get established and only when the existing infrastructure cannot meet usage demands, then infrastructure growth should (selectively) be expanded.

Maybe Pakistan got conned into thinking China was about to move their entire ShenZhen manufacturing industries to Pakistan and easy money was just around the corner. How else could they have signed up for so much debt with no clear idea of how to generate revenues to pay it off.

The whole process is ass backwards.

OBOR is nothing more than the export of surplus building capacity from China which would otherwise go unused within China.
It only benefited Chinese domestic construction firms & suppliers and comes at the expense of the host nation taking on the debt.
China should be paying Pakistan for keeping its construction & supplier firms financially afloat.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby pankajs » 16 Sep 2018 10:30

I wouldn't place much confidence on this. The current regime too wanted the agreements with China reworked but look what we got.

Even if there is some change, I expect it to cosmetic.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby manjgu » 16 Sep 2018 10:32

Neshant..nations are not dumb and nobody got conned..the Pak Fauj / Netas got their money / bribes..country be dammed. Its same story everywhere..the netas get bribed...they sign up to stupid projects ... and then ..

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby chetak » 16 Sep 2018 15:10

manjgu wrote:Neshant..nations are not dumb and nobody got conned..the Pak Fauj / Netas got their money / bribes..country be dammed. Its same story everywhere..the netas get bribed...they sign up to stupid projects ... and then ..


Aren't the citizens of the affected "nations" ultimately paying the price for very little gain for themselves??

Their national assets are in hock and no one knows for how long because it clearly depends on the evolving geopolitical conditions and other terms & conditions that the chinese are always loathe to disclose because they know that the aam aadmi in those countries would revolt if they knew the truth.

so, in the end,
the Pak Fauj / Netas got their money / bribes..country be dammed.
is of no consolation to them.

and just look, a 99 year lease on a major SL port with huge regional and strategic ramifications is OK because some dumbo neta got paid off??

Was'nt this the primary objective in the very first place?? to seize and grab the port and its environs?? or did SL most unexpectedly, suddenly and unimaginably default due to some sort of a black swan event and so were forced to give up their assets??.

What happens to the chinese/local intermarriages and their offspring?? Can you imagine how many offspring there will be in a hundred years of unrestrained intermingling and breeding?? haven't such marriages already started to happen in pakiland and can SL be far behind??

Its also a very sneaky plan for han colonization and establishing chinese roots in the region.

It is the purposeful insertion of a predatory and alien (to the region) species of invader with the explicit purpose of irreversible demographic changes and all other attendant political ramifications that follows, just like the beedi's have been/are doing in India.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby chola » 16 Sep 2018 15:26

It is a fantasy that Pakistan and Sri Lanka and the like as so naive and innocent nations who are so easily taken in by the chinis.

They are getting money and infrastructure that they may or may pay back. Chinis needs to use excess capacity tp kerp jobs so if one of the turd worlders default it becomes just a welfare program for the PRC.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby chola » 16 Sep 2018 15:48

chetak wrote:
What happens to the chinese/local intermarriages and their offspring?? Can you imagine how many offspring there will be in a hundred years of unrestrained intermingling and breeding?? haven't such marriages already started to happen in pakiland and can SL be far behind??

Its also a very sneaky plan for han colonization and establishing chinese roots in the region.

It is the purposeful insertion of a predatory and alien (to the region) species of invader with the explicit purpose of irreversible demographic changes and all other attendant political ramifications that follows, just like the beedi's have been/are doing in India.


I am all for hanification of Pakiland and for the Sinhalese too!

Imagine if the chini bloodlines and cultural invasion of Porkistan lead to:

Roast Pork:


Degenerate Gambling:


and

Girl Groups Music Videos on Karachi beaches:


How can that not make things better for everyone involved?

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby chetak » 16 Sep 2018 15:53

chola wrote:It is a fantasy that Pakistan and Sri Lanka and the like as so naive and innocent nations who are so easily taken in by the chinis.

They are getting money and infrastructure that they may or may pay back. Chinis needs to use excess capacity tp kerp jobs so if one of the turd worlders default it becomes just a welfare program for the PRC.


more than all this, there is a slow and gathering build up of unrest in the han country. Rising wages, higher expectations and a falling job count is generating internal dissent and the cheeni will not be able to handle it beyond a point without riots and active strife breaking out.

Once they start to shoot their own citizens, their exports will take a hit because other countries will gang up on them using human rights abuses as an excuse. Crackdowns like tiananmen square just cannot happen again because it can easily lead to regime change. Xi is feared and not liked as a leader. His "president for life" coup has not gone down well with many.

This entire OBOR/BRI/CPEC is just a clever and complex plan to export cheeni jobs, find new captive markets and use their own accumulated financial reserves with a very good ROI as well as to deploy workforce so that they continue with gainful employment and stay relatively quiet. The add-ons are military expansion into strategic regions, new bases and developing the tactical ability to protect their long supply lines by reducing response times in times of crises.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Neshant » 17 Sep 2018 09:46

chola wrote:
Its also a very sneaky plan for han colonization and establishing chinese roots in the region.

It is the purposeful insertion of a predatory and alien (to the region) species of invader with the explicit purpose of irreversible demographic changes and all other attendant political ramifications that follows, just like the beedi's have been/are doing in India.

I am all for hanification of Pakiland and for the Sinhalese too!



If you mix an indian/pakistani with a chini, what you will get is an indian/pakistani.

The former identity has a much stronger pull than the latter, at least from what i have seen.

Even indian with gora results in a more of an indian than a gora - although goras also have quite a strong cultural pull.

Strangely mixing an indian and japanese results in a stalemate (a confused individual) where both cultures exert an equally strong pull even if japanese culture is exclusionary of anything different.

I've come to see cultures as kind of like genes - dominant and recessive (not to be confused with better or worse as all cultures are equally valid).

So we are not going to be seeing Pakistan dressing, eating or speaking Chinese anytime soon I guarantee you. More like you will be seeing Chinese bowing to Mecca, eating dates and speaking Urdu if they reside for even 1 generation in Pakistan.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Pulikeshi » 17 Sep 2018 11:47

chola wrote:Girl Groups Music Videos on Karachi beaches:
How can that not make things better for everyone involved?


All may be lost - The Pakis have won! Never ever seen Chinese girls brave the ‘Indo-Pak’ SUN like these pretty ones... :P :rotfl:
Waiting for the song to be reshot with Chinese girl in sun hats and skin savers with burqa clad tfta beauties
all hand in hand singing in Chinese-Karachi.

Let the re-education begin! :mrgreen:

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby yensoy » 17 Sep 2018 14:12

Rajapakse interview in the Sunday Guardian https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/news/will-change-99-year-lease-china-hambantota-rajapaksa

Q: The feasibility study showed that the second port in Sri Lanka might not be such a good idea.
A: No it is wrong that the second port in Sri Lanka may not be a good idea. Today everybody is interested in it, not only India, also Pakistan and China. Now they have realised, it is a very important port.


Pakistan... did he say Pakistan? Pakis interested in the goddamn port? To support their booming export economy? Or because they don't have a way to access their Chinese benefactors? This man is just waving a big red flag hoping that we will bite. Hambantota transshipment is a direct threat to our shipping and as such deserves zero support from Indian government and Indian companies. It's clearly a lost cause.

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OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Peregrine » 17 Sep 2018 14:39

yensoy wrote:Rajapakse interview in the Sunday Guardian https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/news/will-change-99-year-lease-china-hambantota-rajapaksa

Q: The feasibility study showed that the second port in Sri Lanka might not be such a good idea.
A: No it is wrong that the second port in Sri Lanka may not be a good idea. Today everybody is interested in it, not only India, also Pakistan and China. Now they have realised, it is a very important port.


Pakistan... did he say Pakistan? Pakis interested in the goddamn port? To support their booming export economy? Or because they don't have a way to access their Chinese benefactors? This man is just waving a big red flag hoping that we will bite. Hambantota transshipment is a direct threat to our shipping and as such deserves zero support from Indian government and Indian companies. It's clearly a lost cause.
yensoy Ji :

I think it would most probably be the Port of Trincomalee. Trincomalee Bay can accommodate may be 50 Ships - if not more.

Here is an "old" Article : India’s Planned Investment in Sri Lanka’s Trincomalee Port Gets a Push

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby chetak » 17 Sep 2018 14:57

yensoy wrote:Rajapakse interview in the Sunday Guardian https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/news/will-change-99-year-lease-china-hambantota-rajapaksa

Q: The feasibility study showed that the second port in Sri Lanka might not be such a good idea.
A: No it is wrong that the second port in Sri Lanka may not be a good idea. Today everybody is interested in it, not only India, also Pakistan and China. Now they have realised, it is a very important port.


Pakistan... did he say Pakistan? Pakis interested in the goddamn port? To support their booming export economy? Or because they don't have a way to access their Chinese benefactors? This man is just waving a big red flag hoping that we will bite. Hambantota transshipment is a direct threat to our shipping and as such deserves zero support from Indian government and Indian companies. It's clearly a lost cause.


Hambantota port as a transhipment destination will leach into the colombo marine traffic and it will not be good for them.

pakis are interested in Hambantota port because of its proximity to India's vulnerable underbelly, the roler controlled TN coast, due to the abundant presence of hardcore "sympathizers" of all hues and persuasions.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby chola » 18 Sep 2018 06:42

Pulikeshi wrote:
chola wrote:Girl Groups Music Videos on Karachi beaches:
How can that not make things better for everyone involved?


All may be lost - The Pakis have won! Never ever seen Chinese girls brave the ‘Indo-Pak’ SUN like these pretty ones... :P :rotfl:
Waiting for the song to be reshot with Chinese girl in sun hats and skin savers with burqa clad tfta beauties
all hand in hand singing in Chinese-Karachi.

Let the re-education begin! :mrgreen:


These chini girls might be tougher than you think. The Red Mosque incident began with a shariah attack on a chini massage parlor. So these pretty little things were not afraid of the paki beardos for quite some time now. Chinis see demand and they supply.

Is Saipan not hot:


Or Thailand?


More skin might tame the repressed muzzie beast.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Neshant » 18 Sep 2018 10:17

chetak wrote:pakis are interested in Hambantota port because of its proximity to India's vulnerable underbelly, the roler controlled TN coast, due to the abundant presence of hardcore "sympathizers" of all hues and persuasions.


India should encourage the creation of more Gwadar type money losing ventures for its adversaries.

Lots of billions can go down the drain with these bad investments - a gift that keeps on giving.

They're like black holes for national budgets and they cannot be shut down easily.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Neshant » 18 Sep 2018 20:42

Maldives’ Chinese debt and political risk could lead to trouble in paradise

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/wor ... 857853.cms

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby rsingh » 19 Sep 2018 22:11

This weeks Economist wants IMF to help Zambia to pay up China. Salam

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OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Peregrine » 20 Sep 2018 00:59

Fully Posted on the Analyzing CPEC Tread

Opponents of CPEC shall never succeed, says Chinese president - Our Correspondent

BEIJING: Chinese President Xi Jinping has said that those who oppose the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) or China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) shall never succeed as this is an initiative of peace and development not only for China but for the region and beyond.
“Pakistan is our time-tested iron friend and Pakistan Army has a pivotal role towards this lasting relationship,” the Chinese leader said in a meeting with Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Qamar Javed Bajwa, who called on him on Wednesday on special invitation.
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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Bart S » 20 Sep 2018 17:17

CPEC:
Colonial Provincial Extension of China
Colonizing Pakistan to Enrich China

CEPC:
Colonial Extended Province of China
Chinese Exploitation of Pakistani Cretins

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Ravi Karumanchiri » 21 Sep 2018 03:34

'This is my land': Cambodian villagers slam Chinese mega-project

A few families in Cambodia's southwest lead resistance effort against large resort including casino and golf courses.
by Andrew Nachemson


UDG was granted a 99 year lease on 20 percent of Cambodia's coastline, deep within one of the country's largest protected areas, for a pittance - less than $100 per hectare each year. A royal decree was needed to make it available for development.

The area leased is more than three times the size of the legal limit for land concessions, villagers and rights groups have said.

Even if a project involves kicking people off their traditional lands, or destroying the world's most important ecosystems, I don't think it would give Chinese financiers or corporations much pause at all.

<snip>

The compensation, they claim, was offered with threats and coercion.

"My husband never negotiated. He was 100 percent staying here until he died. I'm not afraid," said Moeun who believes it's her duty to continue her husband's legacy of resistance.

Around 184 families in Moeun and Say Hieng's village protest against the company on a daily basis, demanding their land back.

The villagers who accepted compensation have set up camp on the road to their old village.

While they occasionally rally in the capital Phnom Pen, the families man the shelter almost constantly.

Their makeshift centre is complete with hammocks and coolers full of drinks, as women play cards.

Across the road is a sign: "We the 184 families ask the government to please do what was promised."

Inside the camp, villagers tell stories of how the company and government cheated them. They claim they were promised five hectares of land in the relocation site, but only received two and a half.

They also complain the land they have been given on hilly, forested terrain is unusable for farming.

<snip>

Plans for a deep-water port, airport, and fully functioning mini-city resort are reportedly still in the works, but a recent visit by Al Jazeera revealed construction is not under way.

<snip>

Signs forbid bathing or fishing.

Besides preventing Cambodians from using their natural resources, the damming process flooded surrounding farmland.
This artificial lake was created by damming a small river, which flooded local farmland [Andrew Nachemson/Al Jazeera]

Multiple golf courses have already been built on the property, with more under construction.

Two apartment complexes are set back from the main road leading up to the resort, possibly to house workers.

The main resort has a casino, a long stretch of a sandy beach, and empty luxury hotels.

Sand is not native to the region.

The only people in sight were labourers tending to the gardens.

Bill Laurance, a professor at Australia's James Cook University focused on conservation, said he does not regard Chinese investors as reliable development partners.

<snip>

"In Australia, for example, a big Chinese developer suddenly dropped an [$5.8bn] project to build a giant casino and hotel complex in Cairns, completely stranding local businesses, government, and people that had invested enormous energy to promote and support this project," he explained.

A proposed Chinese-built port in Darwin has apparently also stalled.

Bates Gill, a professor of Asia-Pacific security studies at Macquarie University in Sydney, said some of the "structural realities" of Chinese investment seem to result in a higher tolerance for risk.

Gill said Chinese developers tolerate this risk because they are not as interested in economics as they are in political influence.

"Infrastructure and building projects are really about political favours and patronage - including the possibilities of bribery and influence-buying," he said.

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OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Peregrine » 23 Sep 2018 18:35

X Posted on the Analyzing CPEC & Terroristan Threads

Why China can’t win the world with easy money – Swaminathan A Aiyar

Indian politicians and diplomats fear China’sBelt and Road Initiative (BRI), which aims to finance and build massive infrastructure projects in 78 countries, controlling infrastructure running through Asia and Europe.China believes this will help it dominate the 21st century.

Asia needs a lot of infrastructure. India itself is a partner with China in the New Development Bank and Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank. But BRI is far more ambitious, planning giant projects. Many are turning into white elephants. This is sparking a financial drama in Pakistan.

In worst-case scenarios, BRI will become a debt trap for borrowers who cannot repay Chinese loans. Indian diplomats fear this debt trap will make borrowers Chinese puppets, or at least give China strategic footholds (like naval bases) in these countries. Maybe so, but I suspect most borrowers will turn against an overweening China, not to it. Indeed, an over-ambitious BRI could blow up in China’s face, causing such massive loan defaults that China’s own financial system
staggers.

Malaysia has just reneged on two major Chinese-financed projects worth $22 billion, calling them scams. It will not be the last.

In Pakistan, China is financing giant infrastructure projects called the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), costing $62 billion. Serious Pakistani analysts now fear the CPEC is a debt trap.

Today, Pakistan’s coffers are empty. It seeks $12 billion from the IMF. But US spokesman say they will not allow the IMF to lend money to Pakistan since this will rescue Chinese banks that made dud loans that Pakistan cannot repay. Trump is determined to scotch Chinese attempts to become economically dominant, and so has denied it a free ride on the global financial system. This is bad news for Pakistan and China. If the IMF shuns Pakistan, China will surely provide
rescue funds in the short run. But this will damage the credibility and prestige of the BRI.

The IMF is the lender of last resort across the globe, rescuing many bankrupt countries. The BRI was supposed to provide additional finance, over and above traditional sources. Suddenly Trump’s action shows that borrowing from China can cut you off from the global financial system.

Many countries resent tough loan conditions of traditional financial institutions. China has offered them easy finance with little risk assessment for gigantic but dubious projects. It has no global tendering — all contracts go to Chinese companies, which can inflate costs. Easy Chinese money once seemed manna from heaven. But the implosion of Chinese projects in Sri Lanka and Malaysia shows easy loans can become burdens. Trump now warns that countries in a Chinese debt trap may lose access to international financial institutions.

Conditions for CPEC projects are opaque. The Financial Times says the return on equity is sometimes a whopping 34%, not the 17% normally assumed (which is anyway very high). The profit is guaranteed by the government regardless of project success or failure. Any failure can bankrupt the borrower.

This reminds me of Enron. It rushed into developing countries, offering to build huge infrastructure. It demanded high returns, guaranteed by governments regardless of project performance. Many countries including India and Argentina agreed. But when borrowers found the guarantee cost exorbitant, they reneged. A multitude of such defaults and fiascos ultimately busted Enron. That’s a warning to China.

In Sri Lanka, the Chinese-financed Hambantota port was a white elephant, unable to repay Chinese banks. China wrote off a billion dollars, in return for a 99-year port lease. Indian diplomats see this not as a financial debacle but a strategic Chinese triumph, getting a naval base by luring Sri Lanka into a debt trap. But Sri Lanka says it will not allow Hambantota to become a naval base.

Countries are prickly about sovereignty. Even the US in its prime faced local hostility to its bases in Asia. So will China if it tries to gain military bases through debt traps.

Moreover, Trump’s stand on Pakistan now indicates that BRI finance can sink borrowers, by reducing their access to traditional institutions. This will make BRI much less attractive, hitting China’s strategic ambitions.

Repeated BRI fiascos could endanger even the mighty finances of China. It already has the highest debt/GDP ratio in the world of over 300%. The 2008 financial crisis showed that even the richest nations can be felled by bad debts.

The grander BRI tries to be, the greater will be its risk of failure, financially and strategically. The more modest BRI is, the greater will be its chances of economic success. But the less will be its chances of strategic success and domination.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Prem » 24 Sep 2018 04:53

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/ ... 6gdlXtKipo
TAIPEI – A military crisis at sea between China and Japan will seriously undermine Beijing’s path of peaceful development and its “Belt and Road” initiative, according to an internal magazine of the People’s Liberation Army obtained by Kyodo News.The article, authored by two military officers at the Naval Military Research Institute and Dalian Naval Academy, strongly suggests that the likelihood of a China-Japan military crisis at sea is increasing due to long-standing disputes over the sovereignty of the Senkaku Islands, maritime demarcation in the East China Sea and the development of maritime resources in the area.While China and Japan are working on improving bilateral relations, the article, which appeared in the April 2017 issue of the magazine, warns that a slight misjudgment of the above issues could easily lead to a maritime crisis.That, in turn, could jeopardize Beijing’s Belt and Road project, which is aimed at connecting China by land and sea to Southeast Asia, Pakistan and Central Asia, and beyond to the Middle East, Europe and Africa.Tensions between Japan and China escalated after the Japanese government effectively put the group of uninhabited islands under state control by buying them from their private Japanese owner in September 2012.
“The Diaoyu clearly possess economic and sovereign value, but its military significance is even more evident,” the article says. “Its location is strategically important if we choose to take Taiwan by force. It is  also important in competing with Japan for maritime rights.”Finally, the sixth measure calls for China to build a strong navy to ensure its maritime supremacy.Describing Japan as a country that has a tradition of “not making enemies with a strong country,” the article says it is vital for China to spread its naval power.“Only by securing maritime supremacy can we make our adversary flinch,” it says.

Prem
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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Prem » 24 Sep 2018 05:19

https://lobelog.com/middle-eastern-blac ... -and-road/
Middle Eastern Black Swans Dot China’s Belt and Road

It was a series of incidents in 2011 during the popular Arab revolts that drove home the fact that China would not be able to protect with its existing foreign and defense policy kit its mushrooming Diaspora and exponentially expanding foreign investments that within a matter of a few years would be grouped as the infrastructure and connectivity-driven Belt and Road initiative linking the Eurasian landmass to the People’s Republic.With Uyghurs from China’s strategic north-western province of Xinjiang joining militant jihadists in Syria and two Uyghur knife attacks in Xinjiang itself in the cities of Hotam and Kashgar, the limits of China’s traditional foreign and defense policy meshed with its increasingly repressive domestic approach towards the ethnic Turkic people.Finally, the greater Middle East’s expectations were driven home in a brutal encounter between Arab businessmen and ethnic Chinese scholars and former officials in which the Arabs took the Chinese to task for wanting to benefit from Middle Eastern resources and trade relations without taking on political and geopolitical responsibilities they associated with a rising superpower.Moreover, with China dependent on the US security umbrella in the Gulf, Beijing sees itself as competitively cooperating with the United States in the Middle East. That is true despite the US-Chinese trade war; differences over the Iranian nuclear agreement which the United States has abandoned and China wants to salvage; and Trump’s partisan Middle East policy.China shares with the United States in general and even more so with the Trump administration a fundamental policy principle: stability rather than equitable political reform. China’s principle of non-interference is little more than another label for the US equivalent of long-standing support of autocracy in the Middle East in a bid to maintain stability.
Of course, current rumblings may never explode. But the lesson of the people’s power movement in the Philippines in 1986, the video in late 2010 of a fruit and vegetable vendor in Tunisia who set himself alight that sparked the Arab revolts, months of street and online protests in Morocco in the last year, the mass protests in Jordan earlier this year against a draft tax bill that have now restarted because of the legislation’s resurrection, and the current protests in the Iraqi city of Basra potentially are the writing on the wall. All it takes is a black swan./b]
Said Financial Times columnist Jamil Anderlini: [b]”China is at risk of inadvertently embarking on its own colonial adventure in Pakistan— the biggest recipient of BRI investment and once the East India Company’s old stamping ground… Pakistan is now virtually a client state of China. Many within the country worry openly that its reliance on Beijing is already turning it into a colony of its huge neighbor. The risks that the relationship could turn problematic are greatly increased by Beijing’s ignorance of how China is perceived abroad and its reluctance to study history through a non-ideological lens… It is easy to envisage a scenario in which militant attacks on Chinese projects overwhelm the Pakistani military and China decides to openly deploy the People’s Liberation Army to protect its people and assets. That is how ‘win-win’ investment projects can quickly become the foundations of empire.”
The Chinese crackdown in Xinjiang could just be a black swan on multiple fronts given the fact that its fallout is felt far beyond China’s borders. For starters, the wall of Western and Muslim silence is cracking with potentially serious consequences for China as well as the Islamic world.
The Chinese campaign in Xinjiang challenges fundamentals of the Islamic faith itself.The earlier incidents were sparked by protests, primarily among South Asians in either Birmingham or Pakistan. This month has seen the first of Xinjiang-related anti-Chinese protests in Bangladesh and India. The first critical article on Xinjiang in the Pakistani press was published this week.Malaysia is the first Muslim country to speak out with condemnations by a senior figure in Malaysian prime minister Mahathir Mohamad’s political party as well as the country’s likely next head of government, Anwar Ibrahim.Consideration in Washington of Xinjiang-related sanctions by the Trump administration, coupled with United Nations reporting on the crackdown and a German and Swedish ban on deportations of Uyghurs, puts the issue on the map and increases pressure on Muslim nations, particularly those like Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey and Pakistan that claim to speak on behalf of Islam.Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Iran, and to a lesser degree Israel are players in what is a 21st century Great Game. That is particularly true in the Caucasus and Central Asia as well as Pakistan and as it relates to port diplomacy in Pakistan’s Gwadar and the Indian-backed Iranian port of Chabahar.
Add to this the fact that if Saudi Arabia is the world’s swing oil producer, Iran is Eurasia’s swing gas producer with the potential to co-shape the supercontinent’s future energy architecture.And finally, there are multiple ways that China risks being sucked into the Saudi-Iranian rivalry not least if the United States and Saudi Arabia decide to take plans off the drawing board and initiate a campaign to destabilize Iran by stirring unrest among its Baloch, Kurdish, Iranian Arab and Azeri minorities.The long and short of this is that the Great Game in Eurasia remains largely undecided and that change in China’s foreign and defense policy is already a fact. The question is how all of this will affect China and how potential obstacles on the Belt and Road will play out.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Ravi Karumanchiri » 24 Sep 2018 10:40

A Chinese Company Reshaping the World Leaves a Troubled Trail

CCCC, Belt and Road’s biggest builder, is besieged by allegations of fraud, corruption, and environmental damage.
By Sheridan Prasso
September 18, 2018, 8:00 PM EDT
From the New Economy Forum


<snip>

State-owned CCCC, one of the world’s largest companies with annual revenue greater than Procter & Gamble Co. or FedEx Corp., says its portfolio of 700 projects in more than 100 countries outside China has a value of more than $100 billion. That makes it the largest Belt and Road contractor, according to RWR Advisory Group in Washington, which tracks Chinese investments abroad for government and corporate clients.

It is also one of the most vexed. CCCC and its subsidiaries have left a trail of controversy in many of the countries where they operate. The company was blacklisted by the World Bank in 2009 for alleged fraudulent bidding practices on a highway contract in the Philippines. Malaysia halted two rail projects this year amid corruption suspicions. In Australia, a government investigation published in March said that a CCCC-owned company may have been lax in supervising construction of a children’s hospital, where the water supply was tainted with lead and a subcontractor installed asbestos-filled panels—problems CCCC said weren’t its fault.

<snip>

Today, Hambantota handles about one ship a day, not enough to make it commercially viable, and wild elephants regularly breach the perimeter fencing. At a nearby airport, which CCCC also helped build during Rajapaksa’s administration, the only commercial flight was canceled in June because of frequent peacock strikes and low demand.

The government also renegotiated the Colombo project, seeking to address the issues that opposition politicians had raised. It dropped plans for a Formula One racetrack, gave CCCC a 99-year lease instead of outright land ownership, and drafted more than 70 environmental impact-mitigating requirements. It also increased the land area by 15 percent.

<snip>

“The whole deal is rotten to the core,” says Feizal Mansoor, a member of the People’s Movement Against the Port City, a group of environmentalists, fishermen, clergy, and other opponents. The sand and quarried rock used for the landfill is 100 years’ worth of construction resources being used up at once, he says, and the Chinese should be paying for it. “They’re going to make a 100 percent profit on their capital investment, and we’re going to make a 1,000 percent loss.”

<snip>


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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby UlanBatori » 06 Oct 2018 05:00

Chief Inspecteur Clouseau's Boss is Chinese! A member of the Politburo of CPC no less. Now missing in China.

Hongwei, 64, was elected president of Interpol in November 2016. His term is due to run until 2020.
He is a senior Communist Party official in China and has formerly served as the deputy head of public security.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby chetak » 06 Oct 2018 10:25

UlanBatori wrote:Chief Inspecteur Clouseau's Boss is Chinese! A member of the Politburo of CPC no less. Now missing in China.

Hongwei, 64, was elected president of Interpol in November 2016. His term is due to run until 2020.
He is a senior Communist Party official in China and has formerly served as the deputy head of public security.


why would this guy be so foolish as to go back??

Maybe, the extended family that he left behind in china was used to lure him back??

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Neshant » 06 Oct 2018 13:45

chetak wrote:
why would this guy be so foolish as to go back??

Maybe, the extended family that he left behind in china was used to lure him back??


Rich people in China will be looking for a way out of the country asap before they get spirited away like the Interpol chief one fine day.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby UlanBatori » 06 Oct 2018 18:11

AFAIK he was Interpolis inspecteur with full backing of CPC, hain? The guy was dep. head of "security" in cheen meaning the secret polis. The amazing thing was that he could be appointed BY Interpol: it WAS giving the full Interpol records on all fliends and not-so-fliends of PeeAllSee straight to Poritbulo.

This is like making Al Caponelli, dep. head of Mafia, as Director of Eph Bee Eye. A lot of case files may have vanished.

So maybe his disappearage was to avoid arrest in Paris, not in Beijing? And maybe PeeAllSee does these things on permanent basis: make sure he can't be "renditioned" out. Perhaps he will appear with a new face and fingerprints as Wei Dong, but it's much surer to ensure that he never appears anywhere again.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Singha » 07 Oct 2018 22:15

Noo yawk times

HONG KONG — China is signaling that it is worried about its economy.

Beset by slowing growth, a persistent problem with debt and potential harm from President Trump’s trade war, the Chinese government has taken steps in the past few months to shore up a decelerating economy. It has pared back a high-profile campaign to tackle debt. It has restarted its traditional engines of growth through big government-led infrastructure projects. It has even censored bad economic news.

On Sunday, Beijing went one step further.

The People’s Bank of China, the country’s central bank, pulled a financial lever that will effectively pump $174 billion into the Chinese economy. The move is aimed at giving a helping hand to China’s small and medium-sized business in particular, which have had a hard time getting loans and face other rising business pressures.

The move signals that China’s economy “is really not doing well,” Chen Shouhong, the founder of the investment information platform Gelonghui, wrote on WeChat, a popular Chinese social media platform.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Singha » 07 Oct 2018 22:16

These internal needs will take some cash away from

Naval buildup
Cpec obor infa spends

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby chetak » 07 Oct 2018 23:02

Singha wrote:These internal needs will take some cash away from

Naval buildup
Cpec obor infa spends


The amerikis waited for the opportune moment.

The timing is not a coincidence.

The amerikis have han crypto xtian sources embedded deep within the han body politic.

The amerikis lulled the hans with their "insensitive" approach in mexico and canada.

The hans also vastly overestimated their own economic power and didn't think that anything, driven from the outside, could happen to them.

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OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Peregrine » 08 Oct 2018 01:56

X Posted on the Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat Thread

Interpol says Chinese chief Meng has resigned – AFP

LYON: The international police organisation Interpol announced Sunday that it has received the resignation of its Chinese chief Meng Hongweng, who has been missing since September 25 and is suspected by Beijing of "violating the law".

Meng has resigned "with immediate effect" and Senior Vice President Kim Jong Yang of South Korea has become acting president, Interpol.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby UlanBatori » 08 Oct 2018 05:30

Beat me to it. From See EnnEnn

Interpol said Sunday it had received le resignacion of Le Presidente..
His wife said Sunday her last contact with him came via a WhatsApp text message with a knife emoji and the instructions, "Wait for my call."
Grace Meng delivered the information to reporters from her hotel room in Lyon, France.
... Kim Jong Yang of South Korea, a vice president representing Asia on Interpol's executive committee, would serve as acting president until Interpol's general assembly picks a permanent president next month.
.... The disciplinary arm of China's Communist Party released a statement saying Meng "is under investigation by the National Supervision Commission for alleged violations of laws."
The party provided no additional details.
Grace Meng said her husband's whereabouts is a matter that "belongs to the international community." She added, "Although I can't see my husband, we are always connected by heart."
Asked about the text message Grace Meng received, the French Interior Ministry said through a spokesman it is 404.
..Twitter on Saturday, Interpol Secretary General Jurgen Stock said,
"Interpol's General Secretariat looks forward to an official response from China's authorities to address concerns over the President's well-being," the statement continued.


I think the fellow stole Interpol's entire dossiers and passed them to cheen.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby arvin » 08 Oct 2018 20:15

Quite possible. This includes the recent notices issued for nirav and choksi. In fact ED blamed interpol for leaking its information
to the key accused.

https://indianexpress.com/article/busin ... i-5347785/

In a communication sent last week, the ED asked Interpol to desist from providing information about the ED’s RN request to Choksi. The ED has said this because the Interpol’s queries against its request are based on objections raised by the fugitive jeweller.

“The fact that Choksi’s objections to our request for a Red Notice against him are pin-pointed, only means that he has all the details of our request,” an ED official said.


The interpol chief opens up a possibity of a link between choksi and CPC.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby chetak » 08 Oct 2018 20:31

arvin wrote:Quite possible. This includes the recent notices issued for nirav and choksi. In fact ED blamed interpol for leaking its information
to the key accused.

https://indianexpress.com/article/busin ... i-5347785/

In a communication sent last week, the ED asked Interpol to desist from providing information about the ED’s RN request to Choksi. The ED has said this because the Interpol’s queries against its request are based on objections raised by the fugitive jeweller.

“The fact that Choksi’s objections to our request for a Red Notice against him are pin-pointed, only means that he has all the details of our request,” an ED official said.


The interpol chief opens up a possibity of a link between choksi and CPC.


just saying onlee, that as president, this, one sorry han dude had no part to play in the operational side of running Interpol.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Neshant » 09 Oct 2018 04:51

Singha wrote:These internal needs will take some cash away from

Naval buildup
Cpec obor infa spends



When they say they gonna pump money in, they going to pump it into their military and other such R&D activity.

Where else would it go. They have enough roads, bridges and empty apartment blocks.

I doubt they are going to flush any more money down the obor rathole unless it is for the agenda of expanding their military interests overseas.

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Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby chola » 09 Oct 2018 07:52

Neshant wrote:
Singha wrote:These internal needs will take some cash away from

Naval buildup
Cpec obor infa spends



When they say they gonna pump money in, they going to pump it into their military and other such R&D activity.

Where else would it go. They have enough roads, bridges and empty apartment blocks.

I doubt they are going to flush any more money down the obor rathole unless it is for the agenda of expanding their military interests overseas.


Yup, if there are no jobs in the export sector then the chini government money goes into creating jobs in the MIC.

The key is to see if the chini does what the Russians did when pressured by the US — that is to build nooks by the thousands. That will collapse them because — unlike shipyards — nuclear bomb factories are complete financial sinkholes that will not provide a return whatsoever. Would be ultimate dhoti shivering material to have a PRC trying to match the US nook for nook in the thousands but it would be the beginning of the end.

Conversely, a PRC that instead uses its resources in the dual use industries like aircraft and shipbuilding (fighters/airliners, bulk carriers/aircraft carriers) would emerge even more formidable without being tied to the West by trade or technology patents.

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OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications

Postby Peregrine » 09 Oct 2018 22:57

X Posted on the Analyzing CPEC & Terroristan Threads

Terroristan Reduces the CPEC US$ 60 Billion Loan by US$ 2 Billon and takes a Further Loan of US$ 42 Billion!

”Pakistan expecting another $42bn investment from China under CPEC”


Dismissing the allegations that the government is weakening China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Information Minister Fawad Chaudhry has said that Pakistan is anticipating another additional $42 billion in terms of investment from China.

Speaking to a private news channel, the information minister brushed off the opposition’s accusations against the government of ‘weakening’ CPEC project. “We have decided to expand CPEC, one of the ways to achieve it if other countries invest in the project. We are anticipating another additional $42bn in terms of investment from China,” said Chaudhry. But, but, Rasheed the Cigar in the Mouth Asana Specialist pared down the Railway "Aid" Package by US$ Two Billion ot redduce the Debt!

The investment would be utilized in providing expertise, building industrial zones, Gwadar port development and different power and infrastructure projects, informed the minister.

The opposition lawmakers in Senate accused on Monday the government of trying to ‘weaken’ the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and asked why the Parliament was not taken into confidence prior to offering a third country to join the multibillion dollar project.

“It appears – one feels as the incumbent government is rethinking CPEC programs and if media reports are juxtaposed with the statements from the Foreign Office, an impression is emerging that efforts are underway to dilute the project,” claimed Pakistan Peoples Party Senator Raza Rabbani .

Meanwhile, the Information Minister was of the view that the government will complete all projects signed by the predecessor Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz’s govt with China under CPEC.

On Monday, the government cut the size of the biggest Chinese “Silk Road” project in Pakistan by $2 billion, Railways Minister Sheikh Rasheed said, citing government concerns about the country’s debt levels. Rasheed the Cigar Asana Specialist!

The changes are part of Islamabad’s efforts to rethink key Belt and Road Initiative projects in Pakistan. “Pakistan is a poor country that cannot afford huge burden of the loans,” Rasheed told a news conference in the city of Lahore.

“Therefore, we have reduced the loan from China under CPEC for rail projects from $8.2 billion to $6.2 billion,” he added, referring to the CPEC. Rasheed the Cigar in the Mouth Asana Specialist!

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