Central vs Distributed Terror & Terror control

[shiv]

Folks I have some thoughts which I have never read before as a collected set of observations and would like to pen them down for reactions. I am not making recommendations - but writing more in the sense of observations - but my own biases on this particular day may come out in the following piece and it is possible that I will change my own mind about some things in the course of time.

The topic is about terror and control of terror, but it has ramifications on governance other than terror.

First a recap of "Central" or "top-down" governance versus self-contained community governance with no central control

Our government is a typical case of tCentral/top-down governance. Religions like Islam and governance by a church are also examples of top-down governance.

Community based governance is typically restricted to small tribal and village communities that mostly do not exist any more. Community governance is a form of libertarianism where people have no central government or law and "do their own thing". Governance in ancient India was like this - especially in small village communities - even if there was a "top-down" king ruling the land. The system of Panchayat governance was based on an offshoot of this - which is why a Khap Panchayat has powers, but its powers should not cross constitutional (top-down) law. In fact - unless I am mistaken Manusmriti also asks that even a King must abide by the local laws in a village he is visiting. But I digress.

Terrorism too has evolved into both types - "top-down" terror and community terror. The LTTE under Prabhakaran was a classing "top-down" terror outfit. Prabhakaran eliminated all other Sri Lankan terror modules and ruled as king of one of the most deadly terror outfits in the world. Eliminating him essentially killed the group and source of terror.

The Taliban and Al Qaeda were mostly top down. Al Qaeda was pretty much crushed by taking out the top leadership. The Taliban too were initially top-down, fathered by the US, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. But with the rise of ISIS the Taliban too has taken on the character of a "distributed network" with community activism and no central leadership.

Community responses to violence are invariably illegal and technically unacceptable in top-down governance systems (like India, or the UK/USA). The massacre of Sikhs after Indira Gandhi's assassination was a politically sponsored community response - mainly in Delhi. As far as I know it did not extend outside Delhi. But it served notice on what was possible if law and order was not implemented impartially.

The violent community reaction to the burning alive of Hindu pilgrims in Godhra station was another classic case where a government was warned about what can happen unless they take serious note of injustices perceived by the community.

Gau rakshaks and the public slaughter of cattle are also and indicator of where top-down governance can fail to address the needs of various sections of a community. The community will take law into its hands and send signals to people who are seen as detrimental to community harmony.

As I see it - if there are multiple instances of drivers of group X driving vehicles into crowds in India - it will not be long before the whole of group X and all drivers thought to belong to group X will be targeted by local communities. This may be called poor law and order. But law and order can be imposed from the top using force. However the needs of all communities must be looked after. Constant injustice perceived by one community will lead to mob redressal. Community and mob are after all the same thing.

In the US vigilantism by armed citizens and open targeting of "foreign looking" or "Muslim looking" people is similar to Indian mob justice. It sends a strong signal to some groups. It is not fair to many - but the US is not seeing what Britain is seeing today. Britain (and Europe) are very very serious about top-down governance - but my view is that this is not going to work. The downside is that if the "community" get involved, a lot of Indians are going to get hurt.

But distributed terror will not be easily addressed without community help. Punishing the community for identifying possible terror suspects may not be the best way forward.

Like I said - just some thoughts I have have over a period of time - couched in secular/diplomatic language

[shiv]

Here is a relevant Tweet
https://twitter.com/AftabChowdhry/statu ... 6412891137

[UlanBatori]

Mullah shivullah, the "new" trend is Swarm Theory. Neither top-down nor bottom-up. According to this, once they have general guidance such as the above, it is only necessary for each terrorist to communicate and learn from/ pass info to adjacent terrorists. Recent studies of ants (basically non-violent creatures) shows that this is how ant communities operate. Same with birds, more or less. If one bird "bombs" on your head or on your freshly-laundered turban, there is no sense in looking for the SuperBird that ordered that attack. Look for the 4 other adjacent birds squawking and , but even they didn't specifically order the attack. By also programming the attackers to wear empty soosai vests, the "collateral damage" to wider entities is avoided. Otherwise the Birds might sing in captivity and name several who Inspired the attack. Now the most the Polis can do is: "Oh, this was either Imran, or Shafeeq. In either case we will go arrest their sisters and toss them around or hang them upside down minus burkha until they say whether Imran/Shafeeq ever went to Pakistan." That's about the sum of it. What can they do when find out that they DID go to Pakistan? Get Parliament to approve more arms sales to Pakistan, what else?

This is what the Londonistan Polis is reduced to doing. Are there master terrorists in Pindi and I'bad and Jeddah pulling the general strings? Yes. But they don't communicate with the individual terrorists - they only publish excerpts from the above, and maybe sign off on a benevolent grant to a mosque that in turn decides to fund a deserving website.

This is the Age of Swarm Terror: same MO as the Mahdi used, same as what most huge movements such as locusts have used. If there is any research on how to destroy such things without individual pest-e-sha'eed of every single one, I have not found it.

In the Yoo Ess they have a thing that you put around anthills. The theory is that ants will carry the flakes back into their nest, and those will genetically neuter them so that the community gets wiped out. They claim the Queen will be killed, but the modern ant swarm research says that the Queen just happens to be a bibi who is programmed to lay eggs, no political power implied. So far, 100% effective. You put that stuff down and in a week the mound is completely dead. Beats other techniques like running lawn mower over mound, which is never 100% effective.

What is the analog here? Never mind, I can figure it out but pls don't post it. Non-PC.

[Agnimitra]

In the US vigilantism by armed citizens and open targeting of "foreign looking" or "Muslim looking" people is similar to Indian mob justice. It sends a strong signal to some groups. It is not fair to many - but the US is not seeing what Britain is seeing today. Britain (and Europe) are very very serious about top-down governance - but my view is that this is not going to work. The downside is that if the "community" get involved, a lot of Indians are going to get hurt.

But distributed terror will not be easily addressed without community help. Punishing the community for identifying possible terror suspects may not be the best way forward.

Like I said - just some thoughts I have have over a period of time - couched in secular/diplomatic language

This bolded part is true. Recently I have also been thinking of ways to strengthen community-level network nodes on the Akhara model, that helps establish 'peace' at the neighborhood/village level. This can nicely tie in with sports, health and wellness facilities. I will pen some thoughts down in a 'policy paper' and share it soon.

[shiv]

There is a huge problem with coordination of top-down governance with Yak herder's point about kill perpetrator and 4 nearby friends. However the "killing 4 nearby friends" model is essential.

[UlanBatori]

But let's say in Birmingham or in the past July 7 subway attacks: What happens? A year later someone says:

Oh! that flat is closed onlee. Abdul was missing after 7/7 herrowic events, and then Polis came and dragged away his wife Ayesha and her 16 children were put in foster care, and his sister Zeenat was dragged away screaming and shoved into a police van, never seen again.

Slowly the memory fades, and then one day Intikhab appears, having mysteriously acquired the flat. The Abdul family is forgotten. Their neighbor 4 homes down the street is one day found missing, then the Polis come and drag out his family, and the cycle is repeated.

But all hush-hush. There is no

Listen, all Pakistanis. Several of your community have been found to be terrorists, so we are keeping a watch on all of you. Every move u make, every step u take, I'll be watching u... Don't like it? Move back to LaHore.

Because in Londonistan that would be soooo un-PC and lead to huge fines against the Authorities.

Even if the community decided to behave, how long will it take b4 they are declared cleansed and immune to ISIS propaganda? 20 years? 40 years?

Stalin (or maybe Putin) would have solved the problem much better: All the homes razed to the ground, the occupants improving infrastructure in northern Siberia, or buried. Presumption of guilt based on race, color, national origin, gender, religion. Like Trump's AG, chief of DHS etc want to do.

[UlanBatori]

See? Here's the cycle all over again.

A 27 year old Barking, East London resident of Pakistan origin has been identified as one of the three Jihadi terrorists who wrought havoc Saturday night along London Bridge. The individual, a known radical Muslim militant, whose name authorities have yet to publicly release was revealed to have been known to authorities and having ’slipped through the cracks’. Disclosure of one of the three suspects came less than a day after three individuals drove a white van along London Bridge, purposefully hitting pedestrians before alighting and slashing at passerbys and patrons and nearby establishments.
Having earlier in the day gone to flats in Barking where a total of 12 individuals (seven women and five men) were rounded up for questioning, neighbors told of the ‘likable Muslim man’ living in the community with a wife, two young children along with his elderly mother.

[shiv]

http://www.oneindia.com/international/i ... icle-tweet

oneindia.com
In the name of the ISIS: Decoding an inspired terror module
Written by: Vicky Nanjappa Published: Wednesday, June 7, 2017, 6:23 [IST]

The Islamic State was quick to call the London Bridge attack in which 7 people were killed by a group of three which included a Pakistani. If one looks at this group, it is clear that they were inspired by the ISIS and carried out a text-book styled attack.

Very often while reporting matters on terrorism, we journalists say that it was a module that carried out the attack. However in the case of the IS there is a difference since these are not technically modules, but inspired modules.

An inspired module is one that draws inspiration from a group's ideology. The members of the group of a lone person is not in touch with the members of the terrorist group. The planning of an attack is not discussed or known to the members of the group. The ideology is in circulation and it is up for grabs. Any person can draw inspiration and carry out an attack in the name of the terrorist group.

In India too several such modules were busted. Most of the members were not in touch with any of the members or handlers of the ISIS. They drew inspiration from the material circulated online and planned and tried to execute the attack on their own. This also meant that the ISIS or the al-Qaeda did not have to fund these modules. The members collect funds and go about their business on their own. For using the ISIS ideology, the group only would seek credit in return.

One needs to bear in mind is that the ISIS does not function like other terror groups. The ISIS does not function on the module theory. It is an outfit that works like an army in Iraq and Syria.


The function it gives its recruits in Iraq and Syria is very different to that it expects from its men in other parts of the world. When Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the boss of the ISIS delivered a message a year back, he made it amply clear that the outfit needed people who were inspired by it. He wanted to spread the ideology of the ISIS across the world and directed all to set up the Caliphate in their respective countries.

Top Intelligence Bureau officials say that the ISIS functions on inspiration. There is no set pattern that it works on. It has thrown a lot of material online about ideology and how it expects its men to function. It does not call for an attack that would require a great deal of planning.

Do not follow the rules is the message that it delivers. For instance, if a 'non-believer' is pushed down a building, the IS would call it an attack. The Nice attack in which a lorry mowed down several people was also called an attack. That attack was carried out by an ISIS inspired man who was not part of any module.

OneIndia News

[UlanBatori]

But you can't focus a mob at a given point to appear suddenly and swarm a city's defenses, timed to the second behind a VBIED attack, with mere "inspiration". There is high-tech coordination with command structure down to the section level. HOW?

[ramana]

WhatsApp?

[UlanBatori]

Who provides the network? Why is not possible to cut off access? I don't think the flea-bitten beards I've seen in Singhaji's photos of the battlefield, carry satphones: too expensive.

[ramana]

My theory is this:
It's not lone wolf but lone dog.
If you watch your dog it barks sympathetically when it hears a barking dog.
Similarly this single cell terrorists get cues from other terrorist attacks from news media.
It's the initial bark that sets of a chain of barking dogs.

[shiv]

But you can't focus a mob at a given point to appear suddenly and swarm a city's defenses, timed to the second behind a VBIED attack, with mere "inspiration". There is high-tech coordination with command structure down to the section level. HOW?

I think this question has a sociological answer.

In a word, Islam and its societal structure where a central core is totally indoctrinated and committed to offering advantages to the violent. The core exist as sponsors in the middle east - funding madarsas. Mullahs from those madarsas are recruited all over the world and all exist "protected" by a local "oil droplet" society which is itself supported by "freedom of expression/religious rights" laws.

The actual instigation to commit violence is constant and given to thousands of people. But committed ones are probably recruited in person in madarsas and then put in touch with other groups using technology - like the internet. whatsapp and VOIP calls.

The power of "suggestive" rhetoric is ignored by liberals and liberal laws. The mullah says "Kafirs must be punished and suggests how Allah would do it". At least some of Alla's techniques would be available for humans.

For example - I would say "Allah made the plane of the Kafir crash into his building" "Allah made the brakes of a truck fail so it went into a crowd of kafirs". The lone wolf is empowered by knowledge.

IMO this cannot be controlled by shutting down the internet, or putting more and more and more restrictions on airlines. It requires an open acknowledgement of the role of Islam and some countries like Saudi Barbaria and Pakistan. Unfortunately giving them 100 billion in arms won't help

As an aside, US soldiers were trained to shoot to kill by indoctrinating them to hate the enemy. But this resulted in PTSD when they returned to a "liberal society" where such actions are questionable. But Islamic indoctrination has no "return to a liberal society". Murderers are heroes. They get rewarded if they die and expressing murderous thoughts or wanting to kill the other is praiseworthy.

The psychological aspects of Islam are far older than any modern political system and unless we look at that nothing useful can happen.

[UlanBatori]

The bottom line is that such an uprising can be expected any time in any place with a sizeable Mu**** minority. And the ***ONLY** cure is what K. Singh said in the preface to his book on Punjab terrorism:

Terrorism in the Punjab did not end because the People got Tired of the Violence. Terrorism in the Punjab ended because we killed the terrorists.

IOW, the only cure is mass pest-e-sha'eed.

[shiv]

http://www.haaretz.com/world-news/europe/1.794803

Al-Qaida was characterized by a structured, hierarchical model with Osama bin Laden at the top, while the new terrorists are only loosely and horizontally affiliated with one another.
[..]
Kepel considers Syrian-Spanish jihadi Abu Musab al-Suri a key figure for this third-generation, or 3G, jihadism. In 2005 al-Suri penned “The Global Islamic Resistance Call,” a guide to the new bottom-up terror strategy. Borrowing a phrase from the jihadi, Kepel says the new approach forms “an organization but not a system” (nizam, la tanzim).
[..]
“The terrorists in the U.K. used low-cost weapons and acted as individuals with unsophisticated plans, which suggests the absence of a pyramidal support system,” Kepel says. “But we should not call them lone wolves — they are still part of ideological and organizational networks functioning mainly online” — for example, YouTube and social networks.
[..]
Using the German word for a national community, Kepel insists that the violent behavior is a direct consequence of a “Salafi Volksgemeinschaft,” a fundamentalist worldview based on the literal adherence to rules set out in Islamic texts.

“You become a terrorist after you become a Salafist, not out of the blue,” he says. “An ideology that clashes with the fundamental values of Western democracies is at the root of the jihadis’ misdeeds.”
[..]
“Britain, they said, remains untouched thanks to a greater tolerance of religion. Now look what happened: France hasn’t been attacked in eight months, while Britain is constantly targeted.”

If anything, Kepel says Britain has left too much space for its Muslim communities to thrive autonomously, with radical preachers poisoning believers’ minds across the country.

[UlanBatori]

I mean the late Shri KPS Gill in the intro to his book. Come 2 think of it, there have not been many terror attacks in Germany, except for the occasional gropings in Cologne rail station etc where Islamic Boys Will B Boys.

[shiv]

Some semblance of coordination among a distributed network of terrorists?
Barcelona
Finland
Russia
India (UP) - 20 (or 60) dead. Tracks cut in sabotage

http://www.financialexpress.com/india-n ... ed/815461/

Kalinga Utkal Express train accident LIVE: In an unfortunate event, Puri Haridwar Kalinga Utkal Express derailed in Khatauli in Muzaffarnagar of Uttar Pradesh, reported ANI. As many as six coaches went off track

[shiv]

http://in.reuters.com/article/us-bazzi- ... ce=twitter

The latest wave of attacks fits into appeals by Islamic State’s leaders for their supporters to carry out self-directed assaults that use any means necessary -- including trucks, cars, knives and axes -- to kill civilians, especially in the West.

These lone wolf attacks are the result of an organized, decade-old movement within Islamic jihadism to decentralize attacks and make them more diffuse. This trend predated the emergence of Islamic State, and it can be traced back to al Qaeda after the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks on the United States. Some of al Qaeda’s leaders were worried that the U.S.-led war after Sept. 11 would hamper their ability to carry out centrally planned attacks, so they sought ways for sympathizers to act on their own.

Islamic State expanded that strategy far beyond al Qaeda’s original conception. In relying on lone wolf attacks by individuals who are self-radicalized and have only a tangential understanding of jihadist ideology, Islamic State is able to project a greater reach than it actually has.

In September 2014, Abu Muhammed al-Adnani, at the time the Islamic State’s top spokesman, issued an audiotaped appeal that explained these new tactics. Adnani, who was killed two years later in a U.S. air strike in Syria, urged the group’s sympathizers to use whatever means at their disposal to attack American and French citizens, and virtually any other Western civilians. “If you are not able to find an IED or a bullet, single out the disbelieving American, Frenchman, or any of their allies,” he said. “Smash his head with a rock, or slaughter him with a knife, or run him over with your car, or throw him down from a high place, or choke him, or poison him.”

Since Adnani’s statement, it became clear that Islamic State would adopt the “leaderless jihad” strategy. For two years, the group has inspired lone attackers to act in its name, especially in the West. These attacks allowed Islamic State’s leaders to create an illusion of strength to make up for their battlefield losses.

The point here is that Islam provides a framework for people to subscribe to and justify apparently "leaderless" warfare. But it is not leaderless - it is led by the tenets of Islam translated into action by the memes contained in a set of books and, in this case, Sunni Islamic clerics.