Indo-UK News & Discussions- June 2017

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 09 Dec 2017 16:12

The UK government’s deal with the EU will find wide domestic support in the UK, because the alternative is Corbyn, which the Brexiteers (and some sane people) find even more terrifying. Even Farage seems to be resigned to accept “Brexit in name only”.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politic ... exit-talks

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 13 Dec 2017 23:10

The UK has essentially capitulated on its own Brexit plans following their recent 'agreement' with the EU. Of course, that's not to say some parts of their polity will not try to pull down the government to indeed impose a hard Brexit as intended. The Irish problem is very simply explained in this image:

Basically, UK wants a hard border with EU, but EU 4-pillars includes no border, and Irish themselves (both sides) want no border in Ireland, so UK will never get the Brexit goal of a border.

All they've done is a) lose their influence within EU while b) paying a divorce bill and c) STILL having to follow EU customs/trade laws because there's no hard border.

It's all quite funny because for ages, the Protestant Northern Ireland was UK's cat's paw on Ireland. Now NI is the source of the ideological anger within the Brexit folks because they want to have their cake (NI as part of UK and a hard border between UK and EU) and eat it too (no NI / RoI border).

BTW the current PM of Ireland is half Indian - Leo Varadkar.

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 13 Dec 2017 23:18

Suraj, is there any chance of NI referendum in the lines of Scottish referendum? Do people in NI want to break way from UK and join Republic of Ireland?

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 13 Dec 2017 23:36

Suraj wrote: Of course, that's not to say some parts of their polity will not try to pull down the government to indeed impose a hard Brexit as intended.

If the hard Brexit types in the Tory party or if the DUP pull down the May government, they get Corbyn and customs union, not hard Brexit.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/jer ... 07486.html

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 13 Dec 2017 23:39

Karthik S wrote:Suraj, is there any chance of NI referendum in the lines of Scottish referendum? Do people in NI want to break way from UK and join Republic of Ireland?

The catholics in NI did not want Ireland to be divided. But the demographic majority in NI is currently for the UK. Most people in GB couldn’t care less. The Irish question has fortunately saved the UK from a hard Brexit. No one predicted this!

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 13 Dec 2017 23:40

eklavya wrote:
Suraj wrote: Of course, that's not to say some parts of their polity will not try to pull down the government to indeed impose a hard Brexit as intended.
If the hard Brexit types in the Tory party or if the DUP pull down the May government, they get Corbyn and customs union, not hard Brexit.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/jer ... 07486.html

Which may be exactly what the country itself wants, regardless of the hard Brexiters

Karthik S: NI referendum ?? No, hell no. NI are Protestant. Ireland are Catholic. Ireland is happy to be united. NI will never think of it, and one of the problems here is that NI fears that Ireland is trying to push for Akhand Ireland through the back door upon the Ulsters in NI who hate the notion. Sinn Fein under Gerry Adams were a minority Catholic group fighting to unite Ireland, fighting the British backed Ulster Protestants.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 13 Dec 2017 23:45

eklavya wrote:The catholics in NI did not want Ireland to be divided. But the demographic majority in NI is currently for the UK. Most people in GB couldn’t care less. The Irish question has fortunately saved the UK from a hard Brexit. No one predicted this!

I don't see how that was the case. It wasn't like it wasn't staring in everyone's face. The Brexiters were stupid - they wanted a hard border with EU, and one of those borders lies between NI and RoI, which they themselves - both the UK-pasand Ulsters *and* NI catholics - don't want. Ireland isn't going to impose border checks for their sake, because of EU 4-pillars.

Same bunch of jokers both want a hard border where it suits them and don't want a hard border where it doesn't suit them, and wants someone else to make a border somewhere else so they get their make believe border except where they don't want border. Ireland and EU told them to go suck a lemon.

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 13 Dec 2017 23:48

^^^^
The catholic minority in NI is very significant. 45% according to this report:

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news ... 04134.html

I personally would like to see Ireland united. The harm done by Britain to so many countries and people around the world needs to be undone.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 13 Dec 2017 23:53

The numbers doesn't matter. The Ulster Protestants are going to claw on to their British enclave and UK is stupid enough not to just walk away and leave Ireland to reunite. It's their own hand stuck in the cookie jar.

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 16 Dec 2017 16:12

Ireland is going to be reunited. But there is a perceptible difference in the standards of living in Dublin and Belfast. Among London, Edinburgh, Cardiff and Belfast who are the capitals of the respective countries, I felt Belfast was the most impoverished. A 2nd tier city in the UK like Bristol, Exeter feels more affluent than Belfast.

krishGo · Post by **krishGo** » 16 Dec 2017 17:59

eklavya wrote:^^^^
The catholic minority in NI is very significant. 45% according to this report:

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news ... 04134.html

I personally would like to see Ireland united. The harm done by Britain to so many countries and people around the world needs to be undone.

Also, the Irish Catholics are out-breeding the unionist Protestants.

Catholic population set to dwarf Protestants in years ahead

The effect is already visible, in that DUP for the first time failed to get a majority (which they later did, but it was very close race). But many commentators have already said that Catholic majority does not automatically mean a united Ireland. A sizable number among younger Catholics are skeptical about the idea.

ashish raval · Post by **ashish raval** » 17 Dec 2017 00:45

panduranghari wrote:Ireland is going to be reunited. But there is a perceptible difference in the standards of living in Dublin and Belfast. Among London, Edinburgh, Cardiff and Belfast who are the capitals of the respective countries, I felt Belfast was the most impoverished. A 2nd tier city in the UK like Bristol, Exeter feels more affluent than Belfast.

Correct but Debt or Ireland per person is 3X times more than NI. Affluence does not mean good services. Living under one of the worst weather on earth takes some courage.

krisna · Post by **krisna** » 17 Dec 2017 05:27

^
wrt population
recall that abortion is illegal in catholics. Also no family planning etc etc. pope refused to accept it etc. no wonder catholics outbreed others . But individual catholic may not believe in it but community as a whole is still reluctant.

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 17 Dec 2017 11:20

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics ... )_YB17.png

Actually, Italy and Poland, both predominantly Catholic, have some of the lowest birth rates in the EU.

The RoI is also a lot richer than NI. Once the demographics favour the catholics, reunification will follow.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 17 Dec 2017 11:56

Except that the Ulster Protestants will raise hell just like TSP in cashmere. It will be messy. GFA can fall apart if they sense that they are being marginalized by the rising tide of Catholic demographics.

Akshay Kapoor · Post by **Akshay Kapoor** » 17 Dec 2017 13:14

I would welcome both Northern Ireland and Scotland to become independent. Big drain on resources and hence my tax. And also some Karmic balance for the enormous damage the English did to my punya bhoomi and the greatest civilization on this planet.

Kashi · Post by **Kashi** » 17 Dec 2017 13:33

I think you'll find that Scottish were equally involved in plundering our punya bhoomi. When it came to stealing from India, English, Scots, Welsh and Irish were probably all complicit.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 17 Dec 2017 13:42

Kashi wrote:I think you'll find that Scottish were equally involved in plundering our punya bhoomi. When it came to stealing from India, English, Scots, Welsh and Irish were probably all complicit.

The point being made is that their quest for independence is no bed of roses, and it going to be wracked by political, economic and sectarian disturbances.

Akshay Kapoor · Post by **Akshay Kapoor** » 17 Dec 2017 13:49

Kashi wrote:I think you'll find that Scottish were equally involved in plundering our punya bhoomi. When it came to stealing from India, English, Scots, Welsh and Irish were probably all complicit.

Very True.

Bart S · Post by **Bart S** » 17 Dec 2017 20:31

Kashi wrote:I think you'll find that Scottish were equally involved in plundering our punya bhoomi. When it came to stealing from India, English, Scots, Welsh and Irish were probably all complicit.

You are absolutely correct, Scots made up a large part of the more elite military units and Irish were widely complicit and made up much of the 'working class' of the empire. If you go to Sterling Castle for example, which is virtually at the core of Scottish nationalist history and narrative, you find glowing tributes to military units based out of there (in the 19th century) for their military genocides in India. Nobody should absolve them from the horrors perpetrated by the empire or view them as distinct from it.

However that is missing the point in this context. Any fault lines must be ruthlessly and cynically exploited. The British of partition era India knew fully well the role played by muslims in the 1857 war and many other military conflicts that they had to fight. Did this stop them from using them against the rest of the Indian population and helping those very same people split from India?

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 19 Dec 2017 11:20

Suraj wrote:Except that the Ulster Protestants will raise hell just like TSP in cashmere.

You got the comparison with Terroristan spot on. A history don once told me exactly that “like Pakistan, NI represents the contempt of a minority for the majority”.

London however has shown its willingness to both hold and respect the results of referenda. If the NI Protestants raise hell, it will be Dublin’s problem, not London’s.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 19 Dec 2017 11:53

"Britain" has been dominated in policy by England for centuries.The real Welsh origin and heritage of the island's people was suppressed.The "Anglo-Saxons" of today who from Roman times been an immigrant bunch of various Europran stock, including Norsemen/Vikings, are the most "mongrelised" race on the planet.So said one of our most eminent MPs of yesteryear.The royal family is of Germanic stock and we almost had a pro-Nazi putsch in Britain after the fall of France invloving some royals like the "Duke of Windsor,former king who abdicated who was a great Hitler admirer.Churchill's great Intel capability scotched that plan.The real Hess was aboard an amphib crash in Scotland- deliberately sabotaged, to prevent him amd others flying to Sweden to pursue a peace deal with Hitler.The dummy Hess was never allowed to be released from Spandau , Goering and others never believed that he was genuine at the Nuremberg trials- he never had his WW1 war wound(!) and finally found hanging in prison from a rope height less than his own!

With Brexit, Scottish independence is now inevitable.Time for the Welsh too to assert themselves.A borderless Ireland of the two parts Republic and Ulster/NI, will result in a de-facto unification despite local govt. in Stormont.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 21 Dec 2017 07:46

eklavya wrote:You got the comparison with Terroristan spot on. A history don once told me exactly that “like Pakistan, NI represents the contempt of a minority for the majority”.

London however has shown its willingness to both hold and respect the results of referenda. If the NI Protestants raise hell, it will be Dublin’s problem, not London’s.

The difference is that Brexit was a British referendum. NI will be an Irish referendum thrust upon Ulster. Given their history, I don’t see any pissful form of Irish unification .

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 21 Dec 2017 13:30

^^^^
Any referendum on the status of NI will be held only if the people of NI demand it, and it will be held under British laws (for as long as NI is a part of the UK), so how would it be “an Irish referendum thrust upon Ulster”?

The Protestant majority in NI was the basis of its separation from the RoI. Once there is a catholic majority, the basis of the division of Ireland will no longer be there.

Demographics are shifting towards a united Ireland - we must have a plan

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 21 Dec 2017 14:10

The Ulsters aren’t going to roll over and play dead when they become a minority in NI . That moment will just spawn an Ulster ILA like there was a PIRA .

Protestant NI is the cookie in the jar that the British monkey cannot let go of .

Lisa · Post by **Lisa** » 21 Dec 2017 14:43

^ You are behind the curve, nothing new here,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ulster_loyalism

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 21 Dec 2017 15:24

The Froggies and Krauts must be rubbing their eyes with disbelief.UL ministers resigning over mere sex scandals,and this latest British cabinet minister,May's No.2 in fact, victim for just surfing ***** sites. Ye Gods! The last French pres. used to bicycle in the morning with his "helmet",pun very deliberately intended ,for sexual trysts with his mistress. late pres. Mitterand has a mistress and a child too.No one in France thought it scandalous.He kept personal and private life separate.

In India too we have innumerable cases of "adultery" involving our politicos,one former celebrated southern CM having for decades paraded both his wives at official functions too! Karnataka's former CM ,Mr.J.H.Patel openly and truthfully expressed his love for women and wine!
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/karn ... 82852.html

But why should there be a public outcry at adults frolicking in "sin",especially in India"? We gave the world the Kamasutra and revanchists and the most narrow-minded individuals,hypocrites personified,even castigated and suspended two kids from hugging each other in a celebration affecting their studies! The "moral police" of today in India who go around beating up couples,etc.,should be publicly put in the stocks and flogged for denigrating India's great sexual heritage so avidly depicted at Kajuraho,Konarak and elsewhere.
British hypocrisy on sexual matters offers rgrat amusement. Even when its heir to the throne is married to his former mistress during his days as Princess Diana's hubbie!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12 ... rnography/

Damian Green sacked over ***** cover-up as Theresa May suffers third Cabinet departure in two months

Gordon Rayner, political editor Christopher Hope, chief political correspondent
21 DECEMBER 2017 • 8:27AM
Damian Green was ordered to resign as First Secretary of State on Thursday night after a Cabinet Office investigation found he had misled the public and MPs over what he knew about ***** found on an office computer.

The Prime Minister’s de facto deputy and closest ally was told to resign by Theresa May after she told him his conduct had breached the ministerial code of conduct and “fallen short” of the behaviour expected of ministers.

He is the third Cabinet minister to be forced from office in the past two months and means that Mrs May ends the year with another crisis after she had appeared to turn around her fortunes with success in the Brexit talks.

A seven-week inquiry, originally launched after a complaint of inappropriate behaviour towards women, found that he had misled the public in two statements he made last month denying the police had ever told him about the material being found in a raid on his office in 2008.

In fact, the police had raised it with his solicitor in 2008 and with him directly in 2013.

Mrs May was presented with the report on Monday, and passed it to Sir Alex Allan, her independent adviser on ministerial standards, who agreed with its findings.

'No doubt' Damian Green accessed ***** at work, claims Former Scotland Yard detective
She told Mr Green to resign on Wednesday evening, and is not expected to replace him in the immediate future.

Mr Green’s demise is the result of a decade-long feud with former Metropolitan Police officers, whose former officers leaked details of the raid in recent weeks after the Cabinet Office originally started investigating his behaviour towards women.

Sue Gray, the Cabinet Office official who investigated Mr Green’s behaviour, did not present the Prime Minister with any conclusions about whether Mr Green had behaved inappropriately towards the writer Kate Maltby, whose complaint triggered the inquiry, or whether he had ever viewed or downloaded ***** at work.

Mrs May chose to announce the report’s findings at 8.39pm on Wednesday night, knowing MPs will not now have a chance to grill her about it until January 8, when MPs return from their Christmas break.

Mr Green, 61, expressed clear frustration in his resignation letter, saying: “I regret that I’ve been asked to resign from the Government.”

His letter also contained a parting shot at the Met, saying allegations that he might have viewed ***** were “deeply hurtful” and “it is right that these are being investigated by the Metropolitan Police’s professional standards department”.

Mr Green had claimed on November 4 that no ***** had been found on his work computers, then on November 11 he said no allegations about improper material being found on his computers “have ever been put to me”.

Damian Green sidesteps calls to apologise for sexual harassment in Parliament
h
He now accepts that police lawyers had talked to his lawyers about the ***** in 2008 and that the police raised it in a subsequent phone call in 2013.

He said: “I apologise that my statements were misleading on this point.” He also apologised for breaching the Ministerial Code and for making Kate Maltby, the writer who first complained about his behaviour, “feel uncomfortable”.

In a letter to Mr Green, who has been a close friend since they were at university together, Mrs May said she was “extremely sad” to be writing to him, but that in the light of the report’s findings his behaviour “falls short” of “the high standards which the public demands of Ministers of the Crown”.

She added: “It is therefore with deep regret, and enduring gratitude for the contribution you have made over many years, that I asked you to resign from the Government and have accepted your resignation.”

However Mrs May’s letter contained a stinging rebuke for the Metropolitan Police after two former officers breached a “duty of confidentiality” by revealing details of what was found on Mr Green’s computer in 2008 when his parliamentary office was raided.

The Prime Minister wrote: “I shared the concerns raised from across the political spectrum when your Parliamentary office was raided in 2008 when you were a shadow home office minister holding the then Labour Government to account.

“And I share the concerns, raised once again from across the political spectrum, at the comments made by a former officer involved in that case in recent weeks. I am glad that the Commissioner of the Metropolitan Police’s professional standards department are reviewing the comments which have been made.”

The Cabinet Office report stated that: "Mr Green’s statements of 4 and 11 November, which suggested that he was not aware that indecent material was found on parliamentary computers in his office, were inaccurate and misleading, as the Metropolitan Police Service had previously informed him of the existence of this material.

"These statements therefore fall short of the honesty requirement of the Seven Principles of Public Life and constitute breaches of the Ministerial Code. Mr Green accepts this."

The investigation concluded that because of “competing and contradictory accounts” of private meetings involving Mr Green and Ms Maltby it was not possible “to reach a definitive conclusion on the appropriateness of Mr Green’s behaviour with Kate Maltby in early 2015”, however, the investigation “found Ms Maltby’s account to be plausible”.

Miss Maltby would not comment on the news until she has received more details from the Cabinet Office.
Damian Green denies claims of inappropriate behaviour

However Miss Maltby's parents Colin and Victoria Maltby, said: "We are pleased that the Cabinet Office has concluded its enquiry into the conduct of Damian Green.

"We are not surprised to find that the inquiry found Mr Green to have been untruthful as a minister, nor that they found our daughter to be a plausible witness.

"We have received many supportive messages from people near and far who appreciate Kate’s courage and the importance of speaking out about the abuse of authority.

"We join with them in admiring her fortitude and serenity throughout the length of the investigation and despite the attempted campaign in certain sections of the media to denigrate and intimidate her and other witnesses. We are proud of her.

"We have ourselves known of these incidents since they first occurred and have fully supported Kate in the responsible manner in which she has reported them."

Mr Green said in his letter: "From the outset I have been clear that I did not download or view ***** on my Parliamentary computers.

"I accept that I should have been clear in my press statements that police lawyers talked to my lawyers in 2008 about the ***** on the computers, and that the police raised it with me in a subsequent phone call in 2013.

"I apologise that my statements were misleading on this point. The unfounded and deeply hurtful allegations that were being levelled at me were distressing both to me and my family and it is right that these are being investigated by the Metropolitan Police's professional standards department.

"I am grateful that the Cabinet secretary has concluded that my conduct as a minister has generally been both professional and proper. I deeply regret the distress caused to Kate Maltby following her article about me and the reaction to it.

"I do not recognise the events she described in her article, but I clearly made her feel uncomfortable and for this I apologise."

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 21 Dec 2017 16:11

Lisa wrote:^ You are behind the curve, nothing new here,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ulster_loyalism

How so ? I just stated what’s in that link . All this talk of ‘Britain respecting a referendum in NI’ is nandi droppings. The Ulster Protestants don’t want one while they’re about to become a minority in NI itself . The Irish are the ones who should hold an island wide referendum and we know what will happen then . They do too, but they don’t want an Ulster cashmere which will in any case happen . Britain are stuck with a group of people originally meant to keep a foothold in Ireland, but who now screw up all their Brexit plans instead .

Lisa · Post by **Lisa** » 21 Dec 2017 16:35

Suraj wrote:The Ulsters aren’t going to roll over and play dead when they become a minority in NI . That moment will just spawn an Ulster ILA like there was a PIRA .

Protestant NI is the cookie in the jar that the British monkey cannot let go of .

There is nothing to 'spawn'. They already exist.

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 21 Dec 2017 22:03

Suraj wrote:All this talk of ‘Britain respecting a referendum in NI’ is nandi droppings. The Ulster Protestants don’t want one while they’re about to become a minority in NI itself . The Irish are the ones who should hold an island wide referendum and we know what will happen then . They do too, but they don’t want an Ulster cashmere which will in any case happen . Britain are stuck with a group of people originally meant to keep a foothold in Ireland, but who now screw up all their Brexit plans instead .

Britain already held a referendum on the GFA in 1998, and before that in 1973 on essentially the unification issue. If demographics evolve to a point where unification has majority support in NI, another referendum will deliver that too.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norther ... ndum,_1998

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norther ... poll,_1973

The RoI government cannot hold a referendum in NI. But many think a referendum is now inevitable:

United Ireland referendum is inevitable after Brexit, says Irish parliamentary report author

Mr Daly added: “From talking to people in both communities in the North, it is clear that everybody believes that at some stage there will be a referendum.

Meanwhile, under the terms of the Good Friday Agreement, the UK Government is legally obliged to hold a referendum on Irish reunification if polls show support for one.

One opinion poll suggested that voters in the Republic overwhelmingly back reunification, putting support at 79 per cent.

However, a BBC poll, in September last year, found 63 per cent of people in Northern Ireland supported staying in the UK, with only 22 per cent backing a united Ireland

NI actually voted to stay in the EU. Thanks to the RoI government, Brexit will now be super-soft, which is what the British establishment (excluding a dozen lunatics in the Tory party) want anyway.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 24 Dec 2017 13:43

There’s no such thing as ‘RoI cannot hold a referendum for whole of Ireland’ Especially when Catholics are a majority both in NI and RoI . And it won’t be pretty . The next Gerry Adams ironically is going to be British .

A couple of years ago no one would have believed UK would attempt something so dumb as the Brexit vote and subsequently be forced to exit the EU. Its a stupid situation - like paying alimony while still compelled to sleep with the person you split from .

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 24 Dec 2017 16:41

Suraj wrote:There’s no such thing as ‘RoI cannot hold a referendum for whole of Ireland’ Especially when Catholics are a majority both in NI and RoI . And it won’t be pretty . The next Gerry Adams ironically is going to be British .

How can the RoI hold a referendum in NI? It is not legally or practically feasible. Any NI referendum will be organised by the authorities in NI and the U.K., as it was in 1973 and 1998. The GFA places a legal obligation on the U.K. authorities to hold a referendum on unification when the opinion polls suggest a majority for unification.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland

Article 3.1 of the Constitution of Ireland "recognises that a united Ireland shall be brought about only by peaceful means with the consent of a majority of the people, democratically expressed, in both jurisdictions in the island".[11] This provision was introduced in 1999 after implementation of the Good Friday Agreement, as part of replacing the old Articles 2 and 3, which had laid a direct claim to the whole island as the national territory.

The Northern Ireland Act 1998, a statute of the Parliament of the United Kingdom, provides that Northern Ireland will remain within the United Kingdom unless a majority of the people of Northern Ireland vote to form part of a united Ireland. It specifies that the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland "shall exercise the power [to hold a referendum] if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland". Such referenda may not take place within seven years of each other.[12]

The Northern Ireland Act 1998 supersedes previous similar legislative provisions. The Northern Ireland Constitution Act 1973 also provided that Northern Ireland remained part of the United Kingdom unless a majority voted otherwise in a referendum,[13] while under the Ireland Act 1949 the consent of the Parliament of Northern Ireland was needed for a united Ireland.[14] In 1985, the Anglo-Irish Agreement affirmed that any change in the status of Northern Ireland would only come about with the consent of a majority of the people of Northern Ireland.[15]

For the economic minded:

The Economist explains
Why is Northern Ireland part of the United Kingdom?

The Economist explains Why is Northern Ireland part of the United Kingdom?
Economics separated it from Ireland, and will keep it separate for now

IT IS almost a year since riots hit the streets of Belfast last December. They were caused by a motion to limit the number of days Britain's Union Jack flag flew on Belfast City Hall. Severe rioting lasted for two months and seemed to centre on the tricky question of why Northern Ireland, composed of six north-eastern counties in Ireland, is part of the United Kingdom. The Northern Irish have their own flags, culture and international sports teams, but do not live in an independent country. Why?

Ireland became part of the United Kingdom in 1801. But Ireland’s sectarian divisions, which had opened up during religious wars in the 17th century between Protestants and Catholics, were exacerbated by economic problems in the 19th century. Britain’s shift to free trade from the 1840s onwards mainly benefited the industrial north-east of Ulster, where Protestants made up a majority of the population. But the rest of the country, which was more reliant on agriculture, suffered badly from falling global food prices and the Irish Famine of 1845-50. The result was the rise of Irish nationalist movements, drawing much of their support from the Catholic south, which wanted a new Irish Parliament and to re-introduce protectionist measures. When William Gladstone, then Britain’s prime minister, proposed Irish legislative independence (called Home Rule) in 1885, the north-east exploded with sectarian rioting against his proposals. Ulster Protestants feared that “Home Rule means Rome Rule”, thinking they would lose the religious and economic freedoms they enjoyed as part of the United Kingdom by becoming a minority in a mainly Catholic Ireland. When the rest of Ireland gained independence as the “Irish Free State” in 1922, north-east Ulster did not want to join them. The British government was forced to partition the six most north-eastern counties of the new Irish state to form Northern Ireland, in fear that Protestant civil unrest in Ulster would otherwise turn into a civil war against the new state.

Northern Ireland has since witnessed severe sectarian violence between its Protestant majority and its Catholic minority, particularly during the "Troubles" of 1968-98. The Good Friday Agreement, signed in 1998 sought to end that. The Republic dropped its claim to the North and London declared the status of Northern Ireland would be determined by wishes of its people. The deal was broadly a success, but friction has continued sporadically since then. Yet most people in Northern Ireland still seem to want to remain part of the United Kingdom. A BBC poll earlier this year suggested that just 17% of people in Northern Ireland want to leave the United Kingdom. Economic reasons may partly explain this. The Northern Irish economy has outperformed the rest of Ireland since 2007 and living costs are lower than in the south. According to a study last year by CEBR, an economic consultancy, Northern Ireland enjoys a net subsidy of 29.4% of its GDP each year from Britain, resulting in a better welfare state than in the south. While health care in the north is free under the NHS, a trip to the doctor costs most people up to €75 ($100) south of the border. Northern Ireland's (selective) grammar schools are highly regarded, though some of its other schools are bad.

The greatest threat to Northern Ireland’s place in the United Kingdom now comes from outside Ireland rather than within it. If Scotland votes for independence in a referendum due to be held in September 2014, what would happen to Northern Ireland? Its historic ties are to Scotland more than to England or Wales, but Scottish nationalists have thus far shown no interest in inheriting the province from the United Kingdom. Scottish independence might yet make Northern Ireland’s constitutional status a touchy subject again.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 24 Dec 2017 18:15

Legitimacy is derived from an electoral majority, and once NI becomes Catholic majority, UK essentially loses all its claims as to the majority of NI wanting to be British. The Irish can and will be emboldened by a weakened GB and seek unification. Let’s not forget, NI is a British entity due to 200 year old British social engineering later legitimized by rule. Once that social engineering condition ends, the end of the rule is nigh.

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 24 Dec 2017 18:38

^^^^
The GFA anticipates a situation where there is majority support in NI for unification, and UK and Irish law legislates for precisely this scenario. The referendum in NI on changing the constitutional status of NI will however be held under UK law.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 24 Dec 2017 19:02

GFA didn’t anticipate UK leaving EU, but NI wanting to be in EU *and* UK , plus RoI wanting to be in EU and reunited with NI. It is UK who messed up the status quo and RoI has no requirement to follow the letter of all past agreements as a result .

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 24 Dec 2017 19:08

BTW, isn't it a good time for Argentina to take back Falkland Islands? UK has aircraft carriers with no planes, it's destroyers malfunction once they hit warm water. I think any loss of territory from present UK will have cascading effect elsewhere.

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 24 Dec 2017 19:21

Suraj wrote:RoI has no requirement to follow the letter of all past agreements as a result .

The GFA is an article of faith in RoI, including all main parties, and the current Taoiseach, and its key backers in the US and the EU.

In any case, the irony of your statement is that Leo Varadkar believes that a simple majority in favour of unification is not sufficient to change the status of NI.

Nationalist anger at Varadkar '50 plus one' remarks

"I wouldn't like us to get to the point whereby we are changing the constitutional position here in Northern Ireland on a 50 per cent plus one basis," Mr Varadkar told last night's Spotlight programme.

"One of the best things about the Good Friday Agreement is that it did get very strong cross-border support – that's why there was a 70 per cent vote for it."

The taoiseach added that if a border poll were held it was unlikely to result in a 70 per cent endorsement for a united Ireland.

"Or anything remotely to that and I really think we should focus on making the agreement that we have work," he said.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Dec 2017 19:22

No economic clout, none of their bideshi weapons will work and the 3 operable uk subs will sink their navy as they no have real asw either

Imf and ratings agencies have them by the balls

They should try a bangladeshi type demograhic plan with demands for argentino sharia once numbers are up

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 24 Dec 2017 19:27

Karthik S wrote:BTW, isn't it a good time for Argentina to take back Falkland Islands? UK has aircraft carriers with no planes, it's destroyers malfunction once they hit warm water. I think any loss of territory from present UK will have cascading effect elsewhere.

The problem is that Argentinian military is in an even worse state.

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 24 Dec 2017 19:33

Singha wrote:No economic clout, none of their bideshi weapons will work and the 3 operable uk subs will sink their navy as they no have real asw either Imf and ratings agencies have them by the balls
...

IMO they might even welcome an Argentinian invasion, would be a good opportunity to burnish ~~super~~ P5 power image by crushing a turd world country half way round the world.