Lalmohan wrote:Suraj - good explanation of the irish border issue. this is the biggest IED in the whole process - may's agreement has largely foundered on this question
as you say, there will be blood, violence is always simmering just under the surface in NI
vera_k: time is problematic. an indefinite timeline encourages the others. Italy under the salvini government will be keen to be next, and the Italian economy is big enough to be a problem. no one cares about the greeks
re free movement: the mangobrit is fine with free movement (Spanish holidays!) as long as it doesn't mean that poles and Romanians come freely to the UK. in terms of context - there are more polish people in the UK now than all sub-continentals put together and they have come within 10-15 years as opposed to 50 years for brown folks. never mind that they work low paid jobs and pay taxes but they are seen to be a problem by the mangobrits. frankly if it weren't for the east Europeans, large swathes of the low paid service economy would grind to a stand still
there isn't one reason for the brexit vote - there are multiple. and there are no good solutions that please everyone
the way out maybe to agree to be in the customs union and the basic infrastructure agreements, pull out of single market (and free movement) and then spend 10 years negotiating everything else. but even this is a problem for the rabid right ("swivel eyed loons" as Cameron called them)
Sirji,
The britshits are in no position to cherry pick their terms and they will very simply have to take what the EU thrusts down their throats.
the EU, as was pointed out earlier, is fighting a battle for its own survival.
If the britshits get off easy, the PIGS will follow next, as surely as night follows the day, so the EU is making huge obstacles and putting impossible conditions for the brexit.
For the EU, it is essentially an existential crisis, a vital question of their own future, as well as a huge increase in the running costs of the union because a few will have to carry the many. This is something that the "few" simply cannot afford as it will seriously and adversely their quality of life, social safety nets and their privileged positions in the world, their memberships of great institutions of economic and military influence and especially membership of the security council and their clout in the UN and their say in world affairs.
The question of the viability of recent EU entrants as well as the older freeloaders and easy riders and their ability to pay their fair share and their capacity to share looming burdens in terms of immigrants, defense, a standing EU army as they are seriously contemplating, among other things.
In the medium term, brexit will cause the collapse of NATO as the amerikis will inevitably pull out. It will also become a protestant catholic tug of war like it was in the recent centuries gone by and the center of military power, as well as economic mass, will shift towards the protestant lot. The vatican will be greatly diminished in stature, reach, as well as their covert influence in global affairs.
china and mother russia will precipitate another great game while India will tamely watch and sit this one out too.
The whole problem was actually precipitated when the poles, in their hundreds of thousands, moved into the UK by right guaranteed by the EU, grabbing all the low end jobs leaving the white britshit underclass jittery and this already simmering discontent also spread to the immigrant populace from countries like pak and beediland, africans, war zone refugees who inevitably voted leave, catching the white mid to upper class britshits completely off guard.
This resentment of immigrants is a long standing issue with the white britshit underclass which also resented the flood of the early immigrants from India, pak, beediland and africa in the decades gone by.
At least the Indians, have, by and large, largely managed to claw their way up the food chain by the dint of education and focussed hard work and the inherent desire to escape the dole and make a better future for themselves.
Whereas, all the rest of the immigrants have mostly continued to remain on the dole, clogging up services like the NHS, swamping public housing, breeding like rabbits and giving rise to social unrest, political and militant religious extremism, while putting huge pressure on the expensive security services and the already meager police budgets.
the britshit whites feel impotent, exploited, overwhelmed, robbed and abandoned by their society which has increasingly turned towards vote bank politics to woo minority votes and almost ignoring the poor among the whites.
Someone very smart saw the chance and engineered a social coup, possibly as a warning to the govt, but failed to consider the possible catastrophic economic and disruptive consequences.
The leave verdict came about solely due to the laissez-faire and laid back attitude of the unconcerned middle and upper classes.
