srin wrote:Back to my question of what is in our interest...
a) If Brexit happens, will UK be weaker or stronger ? And will it be in our interest ?
My analysis is that UK will be weaker. And it will probably be in our interest - because we can ram through trade deals (and visa arrangements) that favour us. And given their love for TSP, we can't be worse off.
b) If Brexit happens, will EU be weaker or stronger ? And will it be in our interest ?
I think EU will become stronger in longer run - because it will primarily be Germany running the show with France's support and everybody else nodding their heads (till of course, Italy or Greece or some other country runs into financial crisis). Don't know if this is in our interest - little ambivalent.
Nobody knows how this is going to pan out for the UK.
For a start, UK economy will lose the positive externalities associated with tighter economic integration and the people will be less well off.
In the short term, I am pretty sure the money club will short the heck out of the pound. Since the referendum, the pound has fallen from $1.50 ish to $1.2+. I am not sure the brexit is fully priced into the Forex rate.
Also, the last couple of years have been, at best a second placed reality show for the world. Unfortunately for the Brits, their implosion coincided with Trump and so were not able to fully monetize this opportunity.
Less Brit-sht intrusion into EU policies toward India must count towards positive news.
In the future, if this serves us a fresh jump-off point for Scottish, Irish and Birming-ham-istan independence movements, it will be even more fun.
I am sure the learned maulana's here will have more to offer on this matter.