India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Postby Supratik » 25 Apr 2018 20:53

FCRA?

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Postby Vips » 03 May 2018 02:55

India re-examining US pacts that could give access to top-notch weapons like armed drones.

The NDA government is now once again re-examining the two other “foundational agreements” being pushed by the US for over 15 years now, after inking the bilateral military logistics pact in 2016, in a sharp departure from the previous UPA regime that had virtually rejected them.

India and the US will hold fresh discussions on the two pacts — Communications Compatibility and Security Arrangement (COMCASA) and the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement for Geo-Spatial Cooperation (BECA) — at a meeting here on Thursday and Friday.

“The defence ministry (MoD) is seriously re-examining COMCASA and BECA, and will do a cost-benefit analysis to fully understand the technical implications involved. The US says inking the pacts will allow India more access to cutting-edge military technologies and platforms with encrypted and secure communications like armed drones,” said a source.

India has for long been interested in acquiring armed unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) like MQ-9 Reaper or Predator-B drones, which fly like fighter jets to fire missiles on enemy targets and then return to their bases to re-arm for next mission, from the US.

But the two countries so far have held formal discussions only on the possible sale of 22 unarmed Sea Guardians + , which are high-altitude, long-endurance drones capable of flying non-stop for over 27 hours for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance missions, at an estimated cost of $2 billion.

“The US recently announced its new policy on export of armed/unarmed drones to friendly countries, with end-use monitoring and additional security conditions. If India at all decides to acquire such expensive drones, then they obviously would be the armed ones rather than ones used just for reconnaissance,” said the source.

The US contends COMCASA is a “technology enabler” to help transfer high-tech avionics, encrypted communication and electronic systems to India as well as ensure secrecy of its C4ISR (command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance) systems from leaking to other countries like Russia.

But India has so far been hesitant to ink the pact despite having bought military hardware and software worth $15 billion from the US since 2007. Instead of encrypted and secure radio, data, navigation, guidance and communication systems protected by COMCASA, India has used commercially available kits to equip its US-origin C-130J Super Hercules, C-17 Globemaster-III and P-8I Poseidon aircraft despite some reduction in their operational capabilities.

There are widespread fears that the use of American C4ISR systems could compromise India’s tactical operational security, enabling the US to keep track of Indian warships and aircraft. “The MoD will study the COMCASA being offered in detail. Much like the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) inked in 2016, India would like a less-restrictive COMCASA that addresses all its concerns,” said another source.

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Postby Prem » 11 May 2018 09:56

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/ame ... hina-25761
China has aggressively courted Pakistan as a potential ally.
( Liffafaman)
A Pakistan that is squarely in China’s orbit could contribute to a dramatic rise in security competition and an increased risk of great power conflict in South Asia. It is in America’s best interest to repair its relationship with Pakistan to prevent such a scenario from coming to pass. In recent years, Pakistan has been accused of harboring members of the Haqqani network, a Taliban-affiliated organization with multiple safe havens in the Federally Administrated Tribal Areas of northern Pakistan. Additionally, the Trump administration successfully lobbied for Pakistan to be placed on a watch list of international terror financiers, while the president tweeted in January that Pakistan has, “given us nothing but lies & deceit,” throughout the duration of the alliance.America’s growing distrust of Pakistan’s commitment to the War on Terror has led many American policymakers to propose even stronger measures to punish Islamabad. Over the past year, proposals have been floated to sanction senior Pakistani government officials with ties to terror groups, designate Pakistan as a state sponsor of terrorism, and even eliminate Pakistan’s status as an American ally. If enacted, these proposals could further deteriorate America’s increasingly fragile relationship with Pakistan, and would cement the existing perception among Pakistan’s leadership that the United States views it as a subordinate as opposed to a partner in the fight against terrorism.America’s relationship with Pakistan is further complicated by its strong and growing partnership with India, a country with whom Pakistan has fought four wars since 1947. Historic tensions over the Indian-administered state of Jammu and Kashmir have resulted in numerous cross-border skirmishes in recent years, and the acquisition of nuclear weapons by both states further upped the stakes of the dispute. India has significantly increased its military, economic, and diplomatic ties to the United States over the past decade, culminating in a landmark defense cooperation agreement between the two nations signed in 2016. Pakistan, which has historically fared poorly in its conflicts against India, views these deepening ties with great suspicion. Much of Pakistan’s motivation to harbor the Haqqani network stems from its desire to cultivate it as a “strategic militant asset,” to counter Indian influence in Afghanistan, particularly in light of President Trump’s calls for India to increase its political and military involvement in the war-torn country in 2017.While the United States has seen its relationship with Pakistan fracture in recent years, China has aggressively courted Pakistan as a potential ally. Through the promotion of economic initiatives such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and the Gwadar Economic Free Zone, China has sought to create strong, durable economic ties between the two nations. China has also been more than willing to fill the gap left by American military support, and has become the largest seller of arms to Pakistan, while also laying the groundwork for greater levels of defense cooperation to protect their mutual economic and security interests. China has even initiated trilateral talks between Pakistan, Afghanistan, and itself, helping to provide Pakistan with the political inroad to Afghanistan that it has long sought.

T. India’s fears of Chinese encirclement, which are heightened by China’s increased naval presence in the Indian Ocean, have caused it to view China’s deepening partnership with India’s western neighbor Pakistan with suspicion, especially since China’s One Belt One Road Initiative is set to encompass territory in Pakistan-administered Kashmir that India has long claimed as its own.China has long been projected as the country most likely to emerge as a peer competitor to the United States in the coming decades, and such an ascension would only serve to strengthen the growing ties between both China and Pakistan and the United States and India. Fearing that China’s rise could threaten its own, India would likely seek closer ties with the United States to reduce the risks posed by Chinese encirclement, which would further drive a wedge between the United States and Pakistan and draw Islamabad deeper into China’s orbit. This divide would be made greater still should President Trump, or any subsequent presidential administration, take additional action to alienate Pakistan and incentivize it to move closer to China for foreign support.Security competition tends to incentivize great powers to form coalitions against their potential rivals, as evidenced by the creation of NATO and the Warsaw Pact during the Cold War. Should India pursue a more formal alliance with the United States, then the strengthening of Pakistan’s relationship with China could result in the Islamic Republic completely breaking with America in favor of a similar arrangement with the revisionist Chinese power. The formation of such alliances inherently heightens geopolitical tensions, but these particular coalitions could prove uniquely conflict-prone considering the states that compose them. Given the lengthy history of conflict between India and Pakistan over Kashmir, it is not difficult to imagine a fifth Indo-Pak war quickly escalating into a proxy conflict between the United States and China, resulting in four nuclear-armed nations at one another’s throats.

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Postby Misra » 23 May 2018 11:14

lengthy but interesting CSIS conference on US-India relationship:

U.S. & India: From Estranged Democracies to Natural Allies
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dyvXyFGcSaQ

opening panel: navtej sarna and frank wisner
economic panel: susan esserman, sadanand dhume, arun kumar
strategic panel: raymond vickery, vikram singh, thomas breckenridge (vp global sales at boeing)

-- interesting perspectives with all fairly bullish, except shri dhume who has anyway progressively become out of touch with indian realities
-- all concerned about impact of trump admin's measures like CAATSA on US-India relationship
-- wisner sticking his neck out and saying modi will return in 2019 whether in coalition or with a somewhat reduced majority

(at around 2:45:25, raymond vickery relates jesse helms' statement on may 13, 1998 about india "shooting itself in its head", which was discussed on the Understanding US thread some days ago)

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Postby ramana » 23 May 2018 23:32

The interesting thing is US wants to push old F-16s/F-18s with newer equipment even thought IAF is not keen.
and despite IAF already acquiring French Rafale costing same as F-35s. (~ > @$100M)


Why?

Also more likely they will sell F-18s to IN to get a toehold in the Defense business.

And its closer to their plan for co-operating in Indian Ocean.

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Postby g.sarkar » 23 May 2018 23:57

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKCN1IM1EB
U.S. Supreme Court takes up dispute over power plant in India
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Supreme Court on Monday agreed to consider reviving a lawsuit by Indian villagers seeking to hold a Washington-based international financial institution responsible for widespread environmental damage they blame on a power plant it financed.
The justices will hear an appeal by the villagers of a lower court ruling that the International Finance Corp was immune from such lawsuits under federal law. IFC, part of the World Bank Group, is an international institution with 184 member countries that helps secure financing for projects in developing nations.
The case revolves around the IFC’s decision in 2008 to provide $450 million in loans to help construct the coal-fired Tata Mundra Power Plant in Gujarat, India. IFC loans include provisions requiring that certain environmental standards are met.
The legal question before the justices is whether there are limits to immunity for entities like the IFC under the 1945 International Organizations Immunity Act, as there are for foreign countries under a 1976 law called the Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act.
Lead plaintiff Budha Ismail Jam and other fisherman and farmers who live near the plant sued in federal court in Washington in 2015, saying the IFC had failed to meet its obligations.
....
Gautam
PS: The venue to redress grievances for the farmers should have ended at the Indian Supreme Court.

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Postby ramana » 24 May 2018 00:13

Gautam,

Did the case ever come up before the Indian Supreme Court/
I don't think so.
This is one of those activist funded cases.

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Postby Viv S » 24 May 2018 00:19

ramana wrote:The interesting thing is US wants to push old F-16s/F-18s with newer equipment even thought IAF is not keen.
and despite IAF already acquiring French Rafale costing same as F-35s. (~ > @$100M)

The F-35 is a high volume low margin product. Not that profitable, much more ‘paperwork’ involved, with a much tougher offset challenge. Meanwhile, the F-16 infrastructure & supply chain will end up being written off in the near future, unless they can secure an Indian contract. Nobody else will buy it.

Ball’s in the IAF/MoD’s court, if you ask me. They need to disabuse LM of the notion that the F-16 has a viable shot (informally of course), and that they aren’t rustic bumpkins to be buying to the ‘F-35-in-a-F-16-container’ nonsense. LM will have a brand new proposal the very next day.

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Postby g.sarkar » 24 May 2018 02:01

ramana wrote:Gautam,
Did the case ever come up before the Indian Supreme Court/
I don't think so.
This is one of those activist funded cases.

You are right. However, the USSC has agreed to look at it. It should not have, it could have said that it is not in its jurisdiction. USSC does not hear all cases that are put up, only those it considers important and liable to set a legal precedence. I do remember the Bhopal Gas victims also tried to get relief from US justice system (I am not sure if it was USSC), but that did not go anywhere. Union Carbide was a US company and US interests were involved.
Gautam

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Postby ShauryaT » 29 May 2018 22:30

Wages of getting close to US
Have sounded the tocsin time and again in my books and other writings since the post-1998 tests when the Indian government under the Vajpayee-Brijesh Mishra-duo began the country’s tilt America-wards about getting too close to the United States. A whole chapter in my last book — ‘Why India is Not a Great Power (Yet)’, was devoted to Washington’s awful record of hurting and trying to harm India’s interests, and why the US is the most feckless of friends and unreliable strategic partner, and a whole host of substantial reasons why it is advisable for this country to keep its distance from Uncle Sam. I have been arguing that Washington’s main agenda point is to somehow and by any means to replace Russia as the premier supplier of military goods to India believing, perhaps, incorrectly, that this is the vantage point that Moscow gained in the early 1960s when it jumped in with the offer of licensed production of MiG-21s at a time when the US rejected India’s demand of the F-104, and has never vacated since. What the US has never appreciated is just why the Indo-Russian relationship grew, despite initial mutual suspicions, into a solid edifice that will not easily be shaken built as it is not just on the sale of hardware but, more importantly, on the transfer of military technology of the kind that the US cannot even contemplate. This extraordinary access to technology afforded India is crowned by nearly unstinted help and assistance in the most sensitive and strategic indigenous programmes that resulted in an array of effective Agni missiles, the Arihant-class SSBN.

It is another matter that India did not use this access to technology to build up an innovation-centered defence industrial base of the kind China managed to do with exactly the same sort of resources available to India when in 1979 Dengxiaoping started the ‘Four Modernizations’ Programme. Nearly 40 years later the Chinese military has advanced to a state where it is giving Washington the willies, while India wallows in the shallows screwdrivering items of foreign origin — which mode is likely to be formalized by Modi’s Make in India policy with defence minister Nirmala Sitharaman giving the armed services the license to import whatever they wished from wherever they wished, ensuring India remains an arms dependency for the next 100 years. Or, forever.

So what was the difference — why did China rocket into the stratosphere even as India stumbled with one wrong decision after another. There’s one and only one decisive factor: Deng and the Chinese leadership had the POLITICAL WILL and the aim to best the best (the US) by being disruptive as hell — it was the Chinese bull in a Western china shop. The Indian government was led by a succession of small-minded, null-visioned, pygmies who have been content to be patted on their backs by the West and happy to join Western clubs and technology cartels (NSG, Wassenar, MTCR, etc) on their terms, and to crow about this as some singular achievement.

But why did this happen? Who or what are the enablers in the Indian system? The fact is Indian leaders and those manning the apparatus of the Indian state — the horde of civil servants, military brass, and DRDO elite all are afflicted by one fatal weakness — their desire for their progeny and family members to have a better life in the US and Western Europe. It is the promise of the ‘promised land’ (green card, H1B or work visa, permanent resident status) laced with scholarship to average sons/daughters of secretaries to GOI, senior diplomats, top military and civilian officers, to Ivy League and similar institutions of higher learning, discretely dangled before the country’s interlocuters when interacting with their American and West European counterparts, that lubricates the passage of US-tilting policies through the byzantine bureaucratic maze that is GOI.

To add to this are similar aspirations of the upwardly mobile political class and what we have is a policy environment so bending over backwards to accommodate Washington it is surprising there’s still something left in the Indian cupboard to be sold! This entire milieu is helmed by the Delhi chapters of Washington thinktanks — Carnegie and Brookings, set up in the last decade with financial contributions by Indian corporates. Thus, not only is GOI willing to put India’s neck in the noose but Indian financiers in the private sector are willing to buy the rope! This is in brief the US-leaning policy eco-system that I have detailed and analysed in my forthcoming book — Staggering Forward: Narendra Modi and India’s Global Ambition, and which system cannot easily be thwarted.

If one were to critically assess the relationships the US has forged with its European and Asian allies, one thing is clear — America’s friends have to fall in line, toe the US line, or get punished as any adversary would. Thus, when the visiting chairman of the House armed services committee of the US Congress, William Thornberry, asks Delhi to desist from buying the Russian S-400 air defence system, the “or else” is par for the course. And when, as is now demanded, that India sign on the dotted line of COMCASA (Communications Compatibility and Security) Agreement and BECA (Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement for Geo-Spatial Cooperation) — the remaining two “foundational accords”, the Logistics Support Agreement being already in America’s bag, it is with the accompanying threat that otherwise the CAATSA (Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act) will come down hard on India because of its ongoing ties with Russia and Iran — two policy pillars of India’s independent stance. CAATSA in any case will hang over India’s head as long as Delhi wants to do business with Moscow and Tehran and anybody else Washington doesn’t want India to transact with. This mind you despite the anxieties in the more nationalist quarters of the military — yes, these still survive! — that COMCASA will assist the US to penetrate — horizontally and vertically –the most secret communications links, including the command and control net involving the strategic forces!

So, it isn’t really about the S-400 — a damn good air defence system that can bring down any aircraft now flying. It is about Washington seeking to impose its will on the Modi government. If Modi bends on this issue, India has to be prepared to concede more and more on everything hereafter, and will indicate the direction in which India is headed. Up or down.

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Postby Varoon Shekhar » 30 May 2018 01:00

^

Too negative and sweeping about the 'screwdriver import' idea. Doesn't acknowledge the indigenous manufacture of many items and products. And no one, except the worst cynics, have suggested that the Agni missiles are derivatives of some Russian system. But the way the reference is worded, you could get that impression!

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Postby Rana » 30 May 2018 07:13

Iran Plotting With U.S. Allies to Skirt Trump’s New Sanctions
http://freebeacon.com/national-security/iran-plotting-u-s-allies-skirt-trumps-new-sanctions/
Indian Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj, in remarks following meetings with top Iranian leaders, vowed to ignore U.S. sanctions. "India follows only [United Nations] sanctions and not unilateral sanctions by any country," Swaraj was quoted as saying, emphasizing that India remains "independent" and immune to "pressure."

"India is going out of its way to alienate members of Congress, including many who have been sympathetic and trying to help them," said one senior congressional official who works on the issue and has discussed the matter with the administration.

"They're almost certainly violating the sanctions against Russia that overwhelmingly passed Congress last summer," said the source, who would only speak on background about these efforts. "Now they're bragging about violating Iran sanctions too. They keep telling us they want a new relationship with America but then they act in these destructive ways. It's very troubling."


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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Postby Cain Marko » 30 May 2018 07:57

Rana wrote:Iran Plotting With U.S. Allies to Skirt Trump’s New Sanctions
http://freebeacon.com/national-security/iran-plotting-u-s-allies-skirt-trumps-new-sanctions/
Indian Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj, in remarks following meetings with top Iranian leaders, vowed to ignore U.S. sanctions. "India follows only [United Nations] sanctions and not unilateral sanctions by any country," Swaraj was quoted as saying, emphasizing that India remains "independent" and immune to "pressure."

"India is going out of its way to alienate members of Congress, including many who have been sympathetic and trying to help them," said one senior congressional official who works on the issue and has discussed the matter with the administration.

"They're almost certainly violating the sanctions against Russia that overwhelmingly passed Congress last summer," said the source, who would only speak on background about these efforts. "Now they're bragging about violating Iran sanctions too. They keep telling us they want a new relationship with America but then they act in these destructive ways. It's very troubling."



Wow are these guys real? You can't possibly be so cocooned and display such arrogance in an era of so much open communication. Unbelievable.

So India should drop all the relationships it has painstakingly cultivated over decades and even centuries to become a strategic cold war ally of the US? And what will it get in return? Free F35s, a CBG and ssns ? And will it be worth it even then? No wonder iaf did not even consider the teens... Lots of foresight.

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Postby SSridhar » 30 May 2018 08:47

Cain Marko wrote:Wow are these guys real? You can't possibly be so cocooned and display such arrogance in an era of so much open communication. Unbelievable.

And that too when the US stock all over the world is so down and it needs to have friends, especially a country like India ! Nobody considers the US as a reliable partner, especially in Asia.

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Postby SSridhar » 30 May 2018 08:51

Russia sanctions may hit Indo-US ‘2+2’ talks - Indrani Bagchi, ToI
As India and US get ready for a ‘2+2’ dialogue in early July between the foreign and defence ministers, US’ linkage of sanctions on Russia with India may bring the two countries to a very uncomfortable place, making the first high-level interaction potentially difficult. Sushma Swaraj and Nirmala Sitharaman are expected to travel to Washington for the first such dialogue, which has been postponed a couple of times.

While India can hope to negotiate a carve-out for Chahbahar port in forthcoming Iran sanctions, using the precedent of the previous sanctions regime, the extreme nature of the CAATSA sanctions regime would make it impossible for India to follow. Recent reports said India and Russia had completed price negotiations for the Rs 40,000 crore S-400 Triumf anti-missile defense system, and were likely to announce it before the official summit in October.


But for the deal to go through may require finding a way around CAATSA (Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act) which mandates the Trump administration to punish entities engaging in a significant transaction with the defence or intelligence sectors of Russia. As per Indian officials, the sanctions regime could kick in on any defence buys above $15 million, which is really small change in defence transactions.

Indian officials also said they were talking to Russia to explore ways around the US sanctions and this was one of the points of discussion during the recent informal summit in Sochi.

In the early days after the nuclear tests of 1998, when a series of sanctions were slapped on India, the first conversations between US and Indian officials entailed making exceptions for India, especially in the area of technology exports. So among the ideas doing the rounds is to obtain an exception for S-400. Officials point to the fact that US allies like Saudi Arabia and Turkey are both close to signing deals for S-400, and any sanctions planned for India would apply to these countries, drawing comfort from the fact that India is not alone.

Although the economy czars of both countries are not going to be at the dialogue, India and US are preparing for some friction on that front, with the US threatening to remove preferential trade privileges for India.

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Postby Cain Marko » 30 May 2018 09:36

SSridhar wrote:
Cain Marko wrote:Wow are these guys real? You can't possibly be so cocooned and display such arrogance in an era of so much open communication. Unbelievable.

And that too when the US stock all over the world is so down and it needs to have friends, especially a country like India ! Nobody considers the US as a reliable partner, especially in Asia.

Yes, esp considering how popular potus tends to be in desh. Buggers are wilfully pissiNG on the goodwill that has been generated over the past decade or so...
Last edited by Cain Marko on 30 May 2018 09:49, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Postby Neshant » 30 May 2018 09:42

Shelve the anti-missile purchase for now.

Trump is impulsive and it won't be a good idea to cross him.

More important issues like trade and access to markets are at stake so shelve the purchase for now.

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Postby Kashi » 30 May 2018 09:52

Neshant wrote:Shelve the anti-missile purchase for now.

Trump is impulsive and it won't be a good idea to cross him.

More important issues like trade and access to markets are at stake so shelve the purchase for now.


Oh yes, appeasement has worked so well so far.

What is it that they say about feeding the crocodile...

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Postby Cain Marko » 30 May 2018 09:59

I'm not sure that's the GOI assessment. They might actually buy the hardware just to up the ante...this is basically some hard bargaining and india is notnew to it. Trumps gameplan seems to be, and it is doubtful he is in control here, to start off strong and then compromise ala noko.india and it's US supporters could always make excuses saying the deal was contracted in 2015, well before caatsa so the US Law is not applicable for these purchases.

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Postby Philip » 30 May 2018 11:18

Simple.India should tell the US that any attempt to curtail its defence purchases from Russia by CAASTA blackmail, would mean curtains for all Future US arms sales to India.In addition, the "Quad " would now be reduced to that of a ( non- Chin) Triad, with India free to choose her friends without Aany US harassment.What is sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander!

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Postby rgosain » 30 May 2018 11:39

Philip wrote:Simple.India should tell the US that any attempt to curtail its defence purchases from Russia by CAASTA blackmail, would mean curtains for all Future US arms sales to India.In addition, the "Quad " would now be reduced to that of a ( non- Chin) Triad, with India free to choose her friends without Aany US harassment.What is sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander!


Phil thanks for mentioning this. There is a feeling about 1997 here when the US was heaping sanctions on India.
The ironic thing is that the PRC is the main beneficiary of CAATSA, it is as if the US congress wrote it to benefit the PRC. China which has been reverse engineering Russian military equipment and pirating IP from all and sundry for decades to create a large home grown defense sector will be exempt from a CAATSA. You don't hear US poloiticians bleating about the PRC's purchase of the S400.

If there are any sanctions, and the PRC continues its obstruction at the NSG, the GOI should reconsider the Westinghouse deal for untested reactors from a bankrupt company and swap them for ones from the VVER.

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Postby JE Menon » 30 May 2018 11:46

Neshant wrote:Shelve the anti-missile purchase for now.

Trump is impulsive and it won't be a good idea to cross him.

More important issues like trade and access to markets are at stake so shelve the purchase for now.


Buying the S-400 is part of trade and access to markets, as well as central to security. There is no legal regime that demands fealty to unilateral sanctions imposed by one state against another. What the US is saying is "stake your relationship with Russia to our relationship with Russia". It is not a posture any power worth its salt will accede to. It is necessary to buy from Russia what we need. We will also offer to buy from the US what we need from them. It is up to them to decide whether they want to sell to us, in the interest of a robust long-term relationship. Agreements or expectations that we will relinquish our sovereignty over some American policy whim which is reversible in a decade easily are misplaced. We are not going to jeopardise our long and reliable relationship with Russia over such whimsy.

To execute this approach with subtlety, cost-efficiency and a smile is the key. That's why we have diplomats.

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Postby habal » 30 May 2018 11:50

If USA doesn't budge from its position even after we tell them to bugger off with comcasa & caatsa and they proceed to impose the fullest extent of these sanctions on India, then it means that USA doesn't want us to have an effective missile defence system or in other words they are in advanced stages of planning where they can ignite a war between Ind-China or Ind-TSPA and are planning a limited nuclear exchange which results in depopulation of subcontinent and a strategic weakening of India's position of strength to a more manageable dominion status.

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Postby nvishal » 30 May 2018 12:18

The US doesn't have any leverages left on India. It already excercises defence and technology restrictions on india.

The Americans can instruct the Arabs to halt sale of oil to India but it is pointless as we can get it from Iran, Russia, south America or Africa.

The Americans also can instruct NATO states and its allies to restrict sale of current generation military hardware to India but that is also pointless as we get what we can from the Russians. The post cold war US-russia ceasefire agreements restrict the russians from selling any game changing hardware to India but we have a local missile program(along with a space program) to fill this need.

There is one leverage(pressure) which the Americans can put on India - क / श्मी / र - which cannot be discussed on an open forum. Although this is an eventuality which we know is coming and are preparing for it.

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Postby Austin » 30 May 2018 12:39

Russia India has many big deals in pipeline be that be S-400 , Krivak , Brahmos Hypersonic , FGFA , MKI lic plus many other deals in small arms plus the huge inventory of spares and support as Russian equipment make for atleast 60 % of Armed forces equipment.

So it is not just S-400 deal but any deal that according to US congress whimsical classification can fall foul of US laws , it comes to sovereign decision in Weapons and FP ..Weapons procurement is an extension of Foreign Policy.

Its not that Israel and France purchase are safe either , US arm twisted france to cancel the Mistral Deal and Israel to cancel deals with China ...it is more of a question of US supereme national interest and if that is crossed they wont care who is on the receiving end allies or enemies.

As we speak EU Business is facing signification pressure from US on JCPOA and Turkey on F-35 deal .....both NATO countries and allies of US since decades !

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Postby Philip » 30 May 2018 18:40

I thought that in the aftermath of the N-deal,which was followed by swift buys of US eqpt. in G-to-G deals as a payoff for the same,that the US would be more open and relaxed in supplying India with defence systems and tech which we were looking for.However,the more we bought the tighter the strings were pulled,starting with the LEMOA agreement.The remainder will shackle us to the US with the key thrown away and render our sovereign and independent recourse to mil action akin to a convict with a canon ball shackled to his leg.

This is extraordinary as we do not have such corrosive clauses with agreements with Russia,France or Israel .The manner in which France was blackmailed by the US into welshing ,or should we now say "Frenching" on the Mistral deal is a signal example.The GOI should simply go ahead and announce the deals it wants with Russia and say so in no uncertain terms signing an MOU too,showing the US the upturned finger.If the US sanctions us in any way,equal sanctions from India on US goods and ervices as well as a blanket ban on purchase of US milware will teach it a lesson to remember,that India is not Pak,a craven catamite of Uncle Sam.

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Postby uddu » 30 May 2018 19:44

The U.S is out of India's strategic calculations forever. From now onwards, the friendship with the U.S will be for the sake of it. They dug their own grave.

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Postby chetak » 30 May 2018 20:16

nvishal wrote:The US doesn't have any leverages left on India. It already excercises defence and technology restrictions on india.

The Americans can instruct the Arabs to halt sale of oil to India but it is pointless as we can get it from Iran, Russia, south America or Africa.

The Americans also can instruct NATO states and its allies to restrict sale of current generation military hardware to India but that is also pointless as we get what we can from the Russians. The post cold war US-russia ceasefire agreements restrict the russians from selling any game changing hardware to India but we have a local missile program(along with a space program) to fill this need.

There is one leverage(pressure) which the Americans can put on India - क / श्मी / र - which cannot be discussed on an open forum. Although this is an eventuality which we know is coming and are preparing for it.


If the saudis stop supply to India, their place will immediately be taken up and filled by other very hungry OPEC/Non OPEC suppliers.

The saudis will thus be decisively edged out of one of the biggest assured, safe and reliable oil markets in the world and they will never be able to come back after having stabbed India in the back.

THEY WILL JUST NOT DARE TO PISS INDIA OFF.

They simply just do not have the b@lls to do so. No one will tinker with a market of this size, especially when India has many alternate suppliers all of whom are panting and salivating to increase their market shares in India.

Once the saudi unreliability as a steady supplier is out there for all to see, other sensitive markets too will become wary of them.

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Postby chetak » 30 May 2018 20:35

habal wrote:If USA doesn't budge from its position even after we tell them to bugger off with comcasa & caatsa and they proceed to impose the fullest extent of these sanctions on India, then it means that USA doesn't want us to have an effective missile defence system or in other words they are in advanced stages of planning where they can ignite a war between Ind-China or Ind-TSPA and are planning a limited nuclear exchange which results in depopulation of subcontinent and a strategic weakening of India's position of strength to a more manageable dominion status.


The US seems particularly keen to block the sale of the S400 systems to India.

This has two consequences.

The S400 will make it very difficult for India to sign the COMCASA because apart from the difficult integration issues, the ruskis will stop the sale because they will not allow such an integration, thus leaving India naked to the clearly present cheeni and paki threats.

The US eventually wants to sell India its patriot and THAAD systems which it claims is superior to the S400 but way, way too high priced for India to even consider buying.

No Indian govt will allow binding itself to the US apron strings in this manner

India, US to reopen talks on Comcasa



Image

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Postby Austin » 30 May 2018 21:41

What they are giving us with comcasa is a proprietary communication system like a black box which we assume is safe secure and interoperable with their communication system but like with any proprietary commercial system it can have a back door on the hardware side which end user i.e Indian Armed forces may not be aware off.

Worse is the encryption and algorithim coding and keyring system is something we wont have access to that means US will have complete transparency over our communication system while it reads in realtime all the tactical information ....for eg a Warship or Sub might communicate with P-8I assuming its safe but once it reaches those propietary hardware and encryption which Indian armed forces has zero control on these communication and tactical information which our subs and warship communication will be tracked and read in real time by US Defence Intel.

More worse is how will other system Indiginous ones , Russians, French , Israel communicate with Indian system with these communication equipment we will have to move to their standards if we want our rest of the forces to be interoperable with each other , else the information transmmited will be at best partially useful in nature.

This thing not only have a Hardware Back Door and Software loophole to exploit but also makes rest of Indian system non-interoperable with each other ......can things get any worse for Indian armed forces

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Postby arshyam » 30 May 2018 22:25

Austin wrote:What they are giving us with comcasa is a proprietary communication system like a black box which we assume is safe secure and interoperable with their communication system but like with any proprietary commercial system it can have a back door on the hardware side which end user i.e Indian Armed forces may not be aware off.

Not "can" saar, but most definitely "will".

I personally welcome these antics from Trump. My biggest concern with the US apron strings is the LCA GE engine, and this episode may just provide us the impetus to finally step up testing the Kaveri, however poorly performing it is. A slow plane is better than no plane. Also, we can use this excuse to throw away COMCASA, SAMOSA and whatever acronyms the amreekis keep coming up with. After all, we have a large ocean nearby to bury this shite in.

Last time the US put us under sanctions, ADA came up with a kick-ass CLAW s/w, and ISRO with its own cryogenic engines. I don't see why we cannot do something similar now.

While I am no fan of Kissinger, the man was on point when he (supposedly) said: "to be an enemy of America can be dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal".

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Postby ramana » 30 May 2018 22:26

Philip and Chetak, US want to use IN as their Indian Ocean Gungadin.
All this COMCASA etc. are for them to use IN as waterboys.
They would even hope to wear out IN ships patrolling the Pacific so as to not pose a threat to Pakistan.

The peaceful military purchases (transport etc.) after IUCNA were baksheesh to US for the deal.
Once it got approved both went separate ways.
Except the lifafa Chatteratti in Delhi.

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Postby Rudradev » 30 May 2018 22:41

ramana wrote:Philip and Chetak, US want to use IN as their Indian Ocean Gungadin.
All this COMCASA etc. are for them to use IN as waterboys.
They would even hope to wear out IN ships patrolling the Pacific so as to not pose a threat to Pakistan.

The peaceful military purchases (transport etc.) after IUCNA were baksheesh to US for the deal.
Once it got approved both went separate ways.
Except the lifafa Chatteratti in Delhi.


Lifafa Chatterati of Lutyens are idiots, but in this case they were (sometimes) useful idiots for India.

When a lot of sweet talk about "Natural Allies", "Strategic Partnership", "Indo-Pacific", "Quad" etc. is constantly humming over the information networks, it has a lulling effect on Stink Tanks and lawmakers, not just on our side but on their side too. Of course nothing was ever going to happen, but at least India stayed off the US' radar screen on things like J&K, or military responses to Paki ceasefire violations. We could all agree to pretend that there was something more to the relationship beyond the merely transactional exchange you describe. That gave India some leeway to pursue things like FCRA enforcement, strategic relationship with Russia, oil purchases from Iran & Venezuela etc. which (though many lawmakers and govt. officials in US did not like them) moved to the bottom of America's priority list.

Trump has upended this calculus. I don't know whether he is a master-strategist or a baboon, and frankly at this point I don't care. I only care about the repercussions for us. We are seeing, for the first time since Parakram days, Congressional Committee members standing up and making threats against India.

If we stand firm (and I think NaMo will), a lot of the other pressure channels that some of us remember well could be reactivated in time for the 2019 election campaign. Not that they aren't active now, but they will be ramped up to a much more open and voluble scale. Including Cash-mere, "Religious Freedoms", "Human Rights", you name it. The pro-INC Church in India has been just waiting for this moment.

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Postby chetak » 30 May 2018 22:54

ramana wrote:Philip and Chetak, US want to use IN as their Indian Ocean Gungadin.
All this COMCASA etc. are for them to use IN as waterboys.
They would even hope to wear out IN ships patrolling the Pacific so as to not pose a threat to Pakistan.

The peaceful military purchases (transport etc.) after IUCNA were baksheesh to US for the deal.
Once it got approved both went separate ways.
Except the lifafa Chatteratti in Delhi.


The US has always had its primary interest only in the IN. It also wants the aussies as part of this free piggyback ride. There is very little reciprocation from them in terms of some "give" in other areas.

As with the S400 systems, the ruskis may stop leasing and even withdraw their nuke subs if India goes the COMCASSA way. Or we will wind up compartmentalizing the operations of the IN into COMCASSA and non COMCASSA sections, much to our detriment and degraded operational flexibility.

The IAF is too shortlegged and does not have the numbers nor the experience in using tankers, AEW in numbers required for long range ops. Frankly, it neither has the capability nor the expertise.

The IA, while formidable on its own, is not available to the US, as was made abundantly clear to them right from the ABV days.

Which leaves the IN as the sole standard bearer of the US hopes in this part of the world. All the more reason for us to be wary and vigilant. We would be much better off second sourcing our weapon systems rather than do as the US wants and go all in with them. There be dragons.

They are brazenly looking for a second "pakistan" and we are determined not to be anybody's "pakistan".

Finally

To be an enemy of America can be dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal. Henry A. Kissinger.

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Postby Shanmukh » 31 May 2018 02:31

Rudradev wrote:Trump has upended this calculus. I don't know whether he is a master-strategist or a baboon, and frankly at this point I don't care. I only care about the repercussions for us. We are seeing, for the first time since Parakram days, Congressional Committee members standing up and making threats against India.

If we stand firm (and I think NaMo will), a lot of the other pressure channels that some of us remember well could be reactivated in time for the 2019 election campaign. Not that they aren't active now, but they will be ramped up to a much more open and voluble scale. Including Cash-mere, "Religious Freedoms", "Human Rights", you name it. The pro-INC Church in India has been just waiting for this moment.


Rudradev-acharya,
I am wondering if it is the fact that many Indian systems (like our Tejas) are coming online that the Amerikis feel the need to bind us into COMCASA (or whatever alphabet soup abomination)? Thus far, India hadn't got its act together. Now we are. Once Tejas & other Indian systems start becoming mainstream in our defence systems, it will give India confidence in our own. And I don't think the US is willing to risk it. We have bought Brahmos, leased nuke subs, etc from the Russians & the Amerikis never made much noise. I don't think this is about S400 or any other Russian system. Amerikis want to hog tie us with the COMCASA & have a permanent listening post inside our systems.

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Postby Amber G. » 31 May 2018 05:39

Few are running this headline...
US Pacific Command renamed US Indo-Pacific Command
Nice!

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Postby Mort Walker » 31 May 2018 08:25

We are seeing, for the first time since Parakram days, Congressional Committee members standing up and making threats against India.


Some of this is being done for pure political opposition against Trump who has adversaries in the opposition and within his own party. It is being deliberately done to force the administration's hands using CAATSA. The results of the 2+2 meeting in early July will be the indicator on this. Another thing to look for is a tariff waiver for Indian steel and aluminum. A counter tariff of $165 million will be imposed by end of June on US agricultural goods. If the Trump administration can reach a deal with China, one would think there should be no problem for India.

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Postby krishna_krishna » 31 May 2018 08:39

Mort Walker wrote:
We are seeing, for the first time since Parakram days, Congressional Committee members standing up and making threats against India.
/quote]

JMT ... This CAATSA will not affect us.They will make noise, release Human Rights Commission reports detailing how minorities are being persecuted etc etc... but in the end we will get S400s and Apaches and Chinooks and M777s and so on and so forth.

This is basically, Muricans playing to the gallery. Don't read too much into this.

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Postby kit » 31 May 2018 09:16

Neshant wrote:Shelve the anti-missile purchase for now.

Trump is impulsive and it won't be a good idea to cross him.

More important issues like trade and access to markets are at stake so shelve the purchase for now.


and then ..it would be just the beginning .. Trump is behaving just like that salesman he is .. turn over and he will fleece you for whatever worth you are .. he is no politician or statesman just a businessman

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Postby kit » 31 May 2018 09:18

Amber G. wrote:Few are running this headline...
US Pacific Command renamed US Indo-Pacific Command
Nice!



As a reminder .. Indo stands for "Indian Ocean" NOT India


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