I do not agree with this assessment,
Here's my take on this.
The US will never get out of Afghanistan. Never, not for any reason.
The answer is clear. The US wants to continue its post 9/11 relationship with Pakistan, because it intends to sustain indefinitely its post 9/11 presence in Afghanistan (with the option to ramp up even further if required). The Krrachi route must remain open.
Rdevji, my Pranams for detailed reasoning as usual.I agree with some points that you raised and don’t on some.
Let me begin with where I agree with you, when Obama announced that date of withdrawal and during end of that term I had conversation with a gentleman who was retiring from his 3 or 4th deployment in Afghanistan. His exact words were “ We will have some presence there, that is how it is being planned”. So to that point I agree that Umbrica plans to never leave that place and always have that outpost and for that to viable assured supply route via porkistan must be open and available.This is where a price is paid by massa to porkistan with this new immy dummy love(nothing new this arrangement was going on for sometime), I am in agreement till this point.
Now I also believe Umbricka lost to talibunnies, even though they will never admit it publicly so hence a face saving route is needed with an agreement with them (Tbunnies)to allow their few bases to function without any threat from the bunnies.This is where game is messed up, bunnies want every massa soldier/contractor/even garbage bin out of their country as first condition to have any dialogue (you know how many rounds have happened).Till that is not agreed they will make life of massa hell.If you read porky army’position they also want this to happen and so does China.
What porkistan will do is continue chai biscuit and promise to bring bunnies to negotiating table and gather baksheeh as usual.Since they have some control but not full, this most they can promise.
What I see in the end is massa winding up this outpost one day, not now but may be five years from now or till they regularly pay to porkistan and are ready to gather body bags of soldiers/contractors at regular intervals. We know how is that appetite of massa on body bags.
This is good for India in the long run , will post part II on that