India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

[chanakyaa]

Biden to Name Longtime Aide Blinken as Secretary of State

President-elect Joe Biden intends to name his longtime adviser Antony Blinken as secretary of State, according to three people familiar with the matter, setting out to assemble his cabinet even before Donald Trump concedes defeat...

https://www.hudson.org/research/16210-t ... ny-blinken

Now, you’re right, we obviously have challenges now and real concerns, for example, about some of the actions that the government has taken particularly in cracking down on freedom of movement and freedom of speech in Kashmir, some of the laws on citizenship but you’re always better engaging with a partner and a vitally important one like India, when you can speak frankly and directly about areas where you have differences even as you’re working to build greater cooperation and strengthen the relationship going forward. That would be the approach and again, I think we’ve seen evidence that it works.

[Mort Walker]

^^^In other words, arm twisting India behind the scenes and upfront mouthing all sorts of platitudes to soothe egos.

[KJo]

Does it really matter? They can say whatever they want. India isn't the India run by a weak MMS. Just ignore them and keep growing economically. Money talks.

[Mort Walker]

It does matter as India is more dependent on US trade and trade of critical technologies including defense. Delaying critical trade is problematic or punitive type sanctions passed against India will be the tactic.

If Blinken made any such remarks about Israel, it would have raised all sorts of alarm bells. I don't think the (potential) incoming administration would contemplate such statements.

[Paul]

TOI

Nearly 25% of the over 8 lakh Indians waiting for US job-based green card may die before they get it: ReportIndustry
ET Now DigitalET Now DigitalUpdated Nov 23, 2020 | 12:31 IST
There is currently a 7% annual country cap on about 140,000 Permanent Employment Program green cards that are issued annually.
Nearly 25% of the over 8 lakh Indians waiting for US job-based green card may die before they get it: ReportRepresentational image

New Delhi: More than 8 lakh Indians are waiting for an employment-based green card in the United States as of now, according to data from Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) data.

According to a report in the Economic Times, the green card backlog for employment-based immigrants in 2020 crossed 1.2 million applicants, the highest ever. Indians comprise about 68% of this. The publication citing a paper by US think tank Cato Institute, mentioned that Indian employer-sponsored applicants face an eight-decade wait for green card and nearly 2 lakh applicants will die before thay can even theoritically reach the front of the line.

Typically, large companies use the employment based green cards, or the Permanent Employment Program (PERM), to hold on to high-skilled workers by sponsoring their permanent residency in the United States. There is currently a 7% annual country cap on about 140,000 PERM green cards that are issued annually.

In the paper, David Bier, immigration policy analyst at the Cato Institute’s Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity, said that the backlog was a result of insufficient numbers under the green card limits and not a delay in processing applications.

As a result of the country cap, once a petition is approved, if the quota has been exhausted, the applicant moves to the backlog.

However, with US President-elect Joe Biden making green card a part of his election agenda, there have been calls to reform the PERM process. But experts say it would be a longdrawn process before this can happen.

According to the paper, the EB-2 and EB-3 category backlog from India reached 741,209 in April and that, despite the spill over from the family-based categories, backlogged petitions still face an expected wait of 84 years.

Both categories are combined due to the potential for EB-2 workers to switch to the EB-3 category for advanced degree holders if wait times become more favourable there.

[vimal]

Kim Iversen on Tony Blinken:

“ War monger Tony Blinken who advocated for every failed foreign policy strategy the US has taken is being nominated for Secretary of State. He advocated for Iraq, Syria, Libya, Afghanistan, you name it. Him, alongside Michele Flournoy who is likely to be named Secretary of Defense run a consulting firm together for many Defense Contractors. Michele advocates for preemptive strikes in countries and is essentially a Bush era war monger. There will be no peace in the Middle East under these folks. Instead, expect troop increases where Trump just took them out. More people will lose their lives but who cares they aren’t in this county right!? At least you no longer have to deal with Trumps tweets.”

[Mort Walker]

The video below is important as it gives policy strategy of the US which has implications for India.

[schinnas]

US not vacating Afghanistan is in India's interests. But it remains to be seen what bargain Pakis extract for being toll keepers.

[Vayutuvan]

not vacating or vacating?!!!

[Mort Walker]

US not vacating Afghanistan is in India's interests. But it remains to be seen what bargain Pakis extract for being toll keepers.

Current US military aid to Pakistan in FY2020 and FY2021 (provisional) is ZERO dollars. Civilian aid at $52.6M. A US withdrawal means no military aid to TSP. If the US drawdown is reversed, expect return to FY2017 (last Obama budget) of at least $840M total aid restored to TSP. About $350M will be direct military aid. That's a lot of money to conduct terrorism in India.

[Vayutuvan]

vacating is good for desh, then. that was my guess.

[Amber G.]

I am very pleased and impressed by seeing highly qualified, experienced people of integrity chosen for Biden-Harris Cabinet positions.
The Biden-Harris transition team, at the same time, is also the most diverse.
I am glad that it has over 20 eminent Indian Americans from different walks of life. By any measure this is historic.
Happy to see many familiar and well known names (including fellow IIT alums .) I hope Dr. Majumdar gets Cabinet post (Energy) though I will be equally happy if Dr Moniz gets it.
Especially happy to notice, quite a few people in India's leadership - especially critical important place, too happens to be very respected scientists (eg - DST) who are able to do good work.

Here is some background on some of the Indians Americans in the Biden-Harris Transition team:
For First Time in US History, Biden-Harris Transition Team Includes over 20 Eminent Indian Americans

[Patni]

IMHO it is better for India, if current trajectory of pakistan sliding more into ever tightening embrace of sugary neighbours holds for few more years. sugar will never provide free money as USA does/did and will extract all they can and weaken pakis and turn them into another NoKo.

[darshhan]

I am very pleased and impressed by seeing highly qualified, experienced people of integrity chosen for Biden-Harris Cabinet positions.
The Biden-Harris transition team, at the same time, is also the most diverse.
I am glad that it has over 20 eminent Indian Americans from different walks of life. By any measure this is historic.
Happy to see many familiar and well known names (including fellow IIT alums .) I hope Dr. Majumdar gets Cabinet post (Energy) though I will be equally happy if Dr Moniz gets it.
Especially happy to notice, quite a few people in India's leadership - especially critical important place, too happens to be very respected scientists (eg - DST) who are able to do good work.

Here is some background on some of the Indians Americans in the Biden-Harris Transition team:
For First Time in US History, Biden-Harris Transition Team Includes over 20 Eminent Indian Americans

Congratulations to Indian-American citizens of US. However over the years(includes my stay in US) I have come to a conclusion that as far as American political play is concerned, interests of India and Indian-Americans are quite divergent. But still good for you.

[Vips]

India has to be a key partner in engaging China from position of strength: Antony Blinken.

India and the US face a common challenge in the form of an “increasingly assertive” China and New Delhi has to be a key partner in engaging with Beijing from a position of strength, believes long-time national security and foreign policy expert Antony Blinken, who could be President-elect Joe Biden’s probable pick for the post of the Secretary of State.

Remains to be seen if the Democrats really mean this or these are just sound bytes given to make the audience of the day happy. If Democrat's are going to walk the talk then certainly not good news for the constipated Chinkos.

[vimal]

All gas, both parties are deep in the pocket of corrupt cartels that live off the profits from chini made goods.
This new SoS Blinken dude runs a consulting firm for many Defense Contractors and its in his and his paymaster's interest to prolong wars or start new ones to spread democracy.

[Amber G.]

India has to be a key partner in engaging China from position of strength: Antony Blinken.

India and the US face a common challenge in the form of an “increasingly assertive” China and New Delhi has to be a key partner in engaging with Beijing from a position of strength, believes long-time national security and foreign policy expert Antony Blinken, who could be President-elect Joe Biden’s probable pick for the post of the Secretary of State.

Remains to be seen if the Democrats really mean this or these are just sound bytes given to make the audience of the day happy. If Democrat's are going to walk the talk then certainly not good news for the constipated Chinkos.

Tony Blinken is *very* well known, experienced expert (respected by all) - most of us have known him for decades.. As I said, I am (and most of the people I know are) very happy to see people like Vivek Murthy, Atul Gwande, Arun Majumdar, Celine Gounder -- some of them still have strong roots (family ) in India and have *very* strong professional and personal relationship with Indian scientists.

[schinnas]

US national security team is in place. We will be working closely with all of them. The only other appointments of key interest to us are Trade secretary, US ambassador to India and to a lot lesser extent, US Energy (nuclear energy and clean coal tech cooperation) and Labor secretaries (H1B visa related issues)

Antony Blinken - Secretary of State
Jake Sullivan - NSA
Michelle Flourney - Defense Secretary (likely to be changed due to strong opposition for her war mongering stance)
Avril Haines - Director of National Intelligence
Linda Thomas-Greenfield - Ambassador to UN

Their collective leanings and differences will become well known in the next few days and weeks. India would like to establish good rapport with all of them. Both President and VP would be more focussed on domestic agenda.

[darshhan]

All gas, both parties are deep in the pocket of corrupt cartels that live off the profits from chini made goods.
This new SoS Blinken dude runs a consulting firm for many Defense Contractors and its in his and his paymaster's interest to prolong wars or start new ones to spread democracy.

That is why it is futile to talk about US Parties from an Indian perspective. From my own experience it is better to analyse and identify the presidential candidates directly who would be better for India. My first preference for POTUS was and still is Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard. Since she was denied the democratic nomination by the powers that be, the next best bet was Donald Trump. Rest of all the establishment Democrats and Republicans come with their own baggage wrt India. The new age democrats though are substantially worse due to wokism.

[Vayutuvan]

.

[Vayutuvan]

Kerry and the ecoterrorsts are already screaming that China, India, and Russia need to reduce their emissions and such.

is John "the long sad face" Kerry gonna give clean tech. to desh.

[hnair]

So we now have a basic idea of the NSC, which brings in a question - so Ashley Tellis has no role?

Disappointed that he is not there in an official capacity to give better informed inputs about India than the regular NPA type. Rest of the above list of family friends and LinkedIn buddies mean jack to India or Indian interests.

(This despite his publicly expressed disappointments about India not considering MRCA selections as “a roadmap for aerospace greatness”, which seem to have some Indian fans in industry)

[Mort Walker]

Ashley Tellis is a Bush administration appointee. He had no role in the Trump administration and has no role in a Biden administration. There are some key things we're looking for:

1. Will the US extradite those in the US which were convicted of 26/11 Mumbai attacks? Specifically, Tahawwur Rana a Pakistani-born Canadian, who is fighting extradition to India in US courts. The Trump administration Justice Dept. was trying to send him back, but with the Biden administration it is questionable at this time.
2. US support for India on the UN National Security Council? The Trump administration didn't care about this as far as India was concerned and further didn't give a damn about the UN as it was viewed as corrupt organization.
3. What pressures are going to brought on India for CAA, abrogation of Art. 370, and passing of ordinances and laws by specific Indian states on Love-Jihad?
4. What pressures are going to put on India for "making peace" with Terroristan and China?
5. Trade. How will the incoming administration be different from the Trump administration which was driving or forcing hard conditions on India? Will there be some give and take?

[Philip]

Blinken," India ....engaging China from a position of strength",meaning,intent,buy more US milware and be strong!

I can see a huge push,pressure on India to buy the F-16...oops! F-21, latest SH,whatever. Plus get India involved activrly with boots on the ground in Afghanistan.At all costs,we must not get stuck in the Afg. quagmire and suffer huge losses in men and money as the Brits for centuries,never learning a lesson,the Soviets,Yanquis and NATO learnt to their detriment. To paraphrase Bismarck,"Afghanistan is not worth the bones of a single Indian jawan". We must remain focussed upon defeating the Sino- Pak JV, strengthening and modernising the armed forces, plugging gaps and upgrading through purchase,lease,whatever to maintain our qualitative edge over the two.

[nachiket]

Kerry and the ecoterrorsts are already screaming that China, India, and Russia need to reduce their emissions and such.

is John "the long sad face" Kerry gonna give clean tech. to desh.

The US needs to get back into the Paris climate agreement first before they scream at anyone else. Pretty easy stick to beat them with on this issue.

[vera_k]

^ Although would be useful to ask for help, perhaps funding, for some climate goal (maybe reducing stubble burning or increasing vehicle electrification?). Climate goals are unlikely to find more support under a different Indian government, so this is the first full presidential term that can have alignment on climate between both governments.

[schinnas]

Hnair,
I am hoping Ahley Tellis is made India ambassador.

[hnair]

Ashley Tellis seem to be perceived as an Asian hand than attached to any admin and has been affiliated to centrist or non-partisan think tanks (Brookings and Carnegie) that has crossover appeal to both sides of political spectrum. My point is he seem to have got credibility with India, the fulcrum of any Indo-Pac mechanism

Mort Walker, in general, go easy on the negative spins about incoming administration - the elections are over and the incoming guys does not seem filled with pakis as was claimed earlier. But we all need to keep an eye out and possibly prevent a repetition of the disastrous 500 AMRAAM handout for pakis. It is easier to keep an eye on an overt paki campaign manager or two than a covert paki sympathizer who will use a Malala card to sell BVR missiles.

[Mort Walker]

In the past administrations it has taken many months to fill the US ambassador to India position. The current ambassador, Kenneth Juster, has not given any indications of when he plans to step down. Sometimes they leave right at the end January when a new government comes in, and others a couple of months later. The reality has been and will continue to be - India is way down on the priorities of the US government.

hnair, it is not about Pakis in the administration, but rather policies. The incoming administration will reverse the US troops draw down and will seek rapprochement with Pakistan. Direct military aid of $400+ million is likely to resume very quickly.

[Amber G.]

The US needs to get back into the Paris climate agreement first before they scream at anyone else. Pretty easy stick to beat them with on this issue.

This, as repeatedly promised by Biden, will be the first thing/ high priority item on the agenda. Along with, pandemic (to bring it under control and work with other countries - especially India, joining WHO back, etc) and Iran Nuclear deal. Physicist/scientist like Moniz (or Majoomdar) - (along with people like Jake Sullivan) are not only good in their field, they are experienced and respected by all. (They also have trust and respect of Kerry and Biden). Hope they succeed.

(For those who do not know, Moniz and Salehi both were in MIT as nuclear physicists at one time (1970's) and later became top negotiator/technical experts on the both sides who negotiated the difficult nuclear deal. Moniz was reporting directly to Obama/Kerry and Salehi directly to Iranian leadership - for most of the time they worked - without others - in a conference room with a while board and try to find solutions. - Long story, well known among scientists etc, but not that publicized in media. Key point is Both Moniz and Salehi have worldwide credibility so their reputation may help again.. )

Future is difficult to predict, but up till now, I am quite happy, all the huff and puff the "progressives" (like Ilhan Omar, AOC, Jaypal gang) have given did not get much traction - or no traction at all . at least up till now I don't see any "big" political names.. mostly experienced and qualified people..Warren etc are not being considered, as someone put it, "well if they are good, we need good people in other places too").. (AOC gang is already fuming because of the appointment of Bruce Reed..Even Kerry, for them is disappointing - they even suggested /wanted AOC)

[KLNMurthy]

Hnair,
I am hoping Ahley Tellis is made India ambassador.

You think so? Even after his article "warning" India that white countries won't tolerate India being a Yindoo fascist under Modi?

https://theprint.in/opinion/if-india-ke ... er/506160/

[nachiket]

The US needs to get back into the Paris climate agreement first before they scream at anyone else. Pretty easy stick to beat them with on this issue.

This, as repeatedly promised by Biden, will be the first thing/ high priority item on the agenda.

I was talking about having a line of attack if they decide to needle India too much about Climate change, curbing emissions etc. We can always counter it saying that India, unlike the US never reneged on our promises made as part of the Paris deal. The fact that it was a different administration is not a defence since as far as the rest of the world is concerned, it was a duly elected US govt. which pulled out and actively tried to avoid meeting the promises made, and there is every chance of it happening again in the future. Only in the US is Climate change a partisan political issue. All other countries seem to have sane people across their political spectrum when it comes to the climate even if they differ on everything else.

I am not saying we should be confrontational about it, but there is a lot of ammunition for Jaishankar and co. to use if the US decides to poke us too much about it.

[KJo]

I am very pleased and impressed by seeing highly qualified, experienced people of integrity chosen for Biden-Harris Cabinet positions.
The Biden-Harris transition team, at the same time, is also the most diverse.
I am glad that it has over 20 eminent Indian Americans from different walks of life. By any measure this is historic.
Happy to see many familiar and well known names (including fellow IIT alums .) I hope Dr. Majumdar gets Cabinet post (Energy) though I will be equally happy if Dr Moniz gets it.
Especially happy to notice, quite a few people in India's leadership - especially critical important place, too happens to be very respected scientists (eg - DST) who are able to do good work.

Here is some background on some of the Indians Americans in the Biden-Harris Transition team:
For First Time in US History, Biden-Harris Transition Team Includes over 20 Eminent Indian Americans

Yes, but it is better to wait and watch before we start rejoicing just by reading their names.
We don't want another Bobby Jindal or that woman from Washington state. Some (leftist) Hindus are more poisonous to India/Hindus (unlike Muslims who always push for the Islamic cause like Sadiq Khan etc) so it's better we wait and watch these people. I was hoping for Tulsi Gabbard to find a spot.

[Suraj]

The Climate Transparency Report tracks annual G20 performance against Paris Accord goals. The latest one was released days ago:
https://www.climate-transparency.org/g2 ... 62b8d-e708
https://www.climate-transparency.org/wp ... t-2020.pdf

Tl;dr: India the only G20 nation on track to meet 2C global warming targets

Feel fee to pull up that PDF and flip to page 25:
India: To reduce the emissions intensity of GDP by 33-35% by 2030 from the 2005 level. Status: 2°C compatible
USA: To achieve an economy-wide target of reducing GHG emissions by 26-28% below the 2005 level by 2025, and to make best efforts to reduce emissions by 28% (incl. land use) Status: Critically insufficient

Even Japan and China categorize as 'Highly Insufficient'. One cannot complain that different countries are targeting different things - that's what they themselves signed up to do.

[vera_k]

Correct. However, the 5 year review conference was moved from this year to the next. The 2021 conference will likely have countries renewing or increasing their commitment to climate goals, so there's going to be some negotiations in advance of that.

[Mort Walker]

The Biden team is promising climate change as high priority. Jake Sullivan, NSA designate, gave an introductory speech a couple of days ago that was disjointed. The job of the NSA is to provide an overview of foreign policy guidance to the president based on potential threats be it military or economic. It is queer for the NSA to provide guidance on climate change as there are other qualified agencies and individuals to do that. The only time climate change comes into foreign policy guidance is in the instance of international water conflicts where the US would get involved. However, this was not mentioned in any policy statement.

As far as Moniz or Majoomdar as Secretary of Energy is concerned. This is all good, but the primary job of the DoE is to ensure the nuclear fuel supply for power, weapons, research and medicine is in good order. After that it is to further R&D into energy sources from fossil fuels, renewables including fusion, the electrical grid modernization and physics research. The latter is very wide ranging and if any administration was serious about climate change and renewables, they would fund the agency accordingly in the budget. The Dept. of Energy budget is about $32 billion, of which $24 billion goes for the primary function of the agency as mentioned above. The secondary duties of the agency get about $8 billion.

DOE Programs FY20 ($M)
• Energy 2,407
• Science 5,546
• Environmental Management 6,469
• National Nuclear Security Administration 16,485
• Administration and Oversight 796
• DOE Total 31,703

Climate change is the purview of NOAA, as they are in charge of the collection of data, management, and logistics of the US surface weather and ocean sensors. They also collect data from earth observation satellites along with NASA. This is the agency which has a large number of scientists who are capable of good analysis (many of the heads of depts within are Indian origin). Any of the climate change data coming from DoE is coming from NOAA and NASA. Both of these agencies collect large amounts of data. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is too heavy with attorneys and lacks scientists and engineers. The EPA regional offices are full of attorneys who are not contributing anything worthwhile to climate change discussion, nor are they helping state governments. They are strictly a regulatory agency with no science.

As far as the Paris Agreement is concerned. Any rhetorical comment by Trump such as India’s air is filthy, means nothing. As of present there is no pressure from Mike Pompeo or any other official US channel which is harassing India on climate change or emissions. Any significant US climate change policy will have an impact an immediate rise of energy prices and inflation. From a political point of view, this will create an electoral loss for any party and changes are unlikely to happen. What has happened in the last 4 years is that US carbon emissions have decreased due to the cost savings of shifting from coal to natural gas for power. Also, any international treaty needs 2/3 approval from the US Senate like the U.S.–India Civil Nuclear Agreement of 2005. This is not going to happen for the Paris Agreement. What is worse is that pontificating characters like John F. Kerry will have the US commit to the Paris Accords, knowing full well it has no political support in the US Senate, but will beat up on India and force economically unsound agreements. In the end, the Indian consumer pays higher prices with the added insult of reduced industrial growth. Hopefully, the GoI smiles at Kerry and lets him go on his VVIP way. Kerry is already angry at the Modi government for the personal insult in 2016, when he was Sec. of State, and got caught in monsoon traffic in Delhi. The GoI said that only heads of state can get VVIP treatment as he was demanding. As opposition law makers in the US have stated – John Kerry gets to live his dream of representing the US in Europe while enjoying stays in European luxury hotels at the expense of taxpayers.

It is somewhat amusing to find scientists on this forum who are falling for hand waving arguments coming from politicians.

[Vivek K]

Irrespective of the US govt - India needs to take steps to put an aggressive foreign policy in place. Actions like countering extremism attacking us from Pakistan and Myanmar must be taken now. Just waiting for a bone to come your way is no way to run foreign policy. Need to get one step ahead and be in control of the narrative.

[Mort Walker]

^^^In principle I agree, but the will of the GoI is not there for a number of reasons whether right or wrong. It is the same reasoning used in years past and is unfortunate.

1. India is in the middle of a pandemic, after Diwali cases are rising. Full effort by all agencies is on to manage this.
2. The economic contraction is severe. Any war out of miscalculation will set India back by years.
3. The leftists will now have more say in the US, and the Modi government does not wish to get on the bad side of the incoming administration. The window of retaliation has now closed.

[Vivek K]

Right now it is the story of the blind men and the elephant - all speculation which way the US will go. But India needs to look at her own interests and make sure to set the narrative. Should a power wait for things to happen? Pandemic or not - India must come out of her hesitation and reluctance to create problems that require solutions. America will swing between leftist and rightist for years to come it seems - if the current election can ever be decided.

This is the opportune moment - there is confusion in the US about its political leadership. And therefore India should make hay while the sun shines. India can never be a power so long as Pukistan remains belligerent and capable. Feb 27th was a missed opportunity to set PAF back by 10 years.

[Kashi]

^^ With due respect Vivek K ji, you are hardly being specific. India should do something..but what is that something do you want or expect India to do?