India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

[Philip]

Moral of the story,and we must thank Trump for his bluntness,not verbiose diplomuttic garbage,that we must fend for ourselves.Therefore,India must look to its own interests first,not that of America.

[UlanBatori]

I have felt for some time that the daily Twitter show is precisely that: diversion to keep the Energizer Bunnies hopping and beating their drums, while the Executive goes about its business under the radar. Each time the EBs glimpse what is going on (such as the DT-KJU or DT-VP Summit: imagine the background work that went into those!) they start hopping and yelling "IMPEACHMENT! (CANCEL THE ELECTION! please please please!)" - but the Executive has long-since moved on to the next 5 things that they have planned in their agenda.

Diplomats are slaves to other slaves, but imagine themselves 2-b Emperors. The Executive's associates are slaves, but to a real billionaire. No pretences, but they expect to be rewarded in private. The smart ones stay out of the news and go about their work.

From time to time the Diplomutts cross the paths of the Execuslaves, and sparks fly. So far the diplomutts get their butts kicked.

[g.sarkar]

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/2 ... 2018-07-23
26/11 plotter David Headley battling for life after attack in US prison
David Headley, Pakistani-American convicted in the 26/11 Mumbai terror attacks, is battling for his life after being attacked by two inmates at the Metropolitan Correctional Center in Chicago.
Headley was reportedly attacked on July 8 by two other inmates as he had been a double agent working with Pakistan and Islamist terror elements.
The injuries he suffered were grievous in nature and he had to be rushed to North Evanston hospital.
He is reportedly admitted to the critical care unit and is under observation 24/7.
.....
Gautam

[ramana]

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/2 ... 2018-07-23
26/11 plotter David Headley battling for life after attack in US prison
David Headley, Pakistani-American convicted in the 26/11 Mumbai terror attacks, is battling for his life after being attacked by two inmates at the Metropolitan Correctional Center in Chicago.
Headley was reportedly attacked on July 8 by two other inmates as he had been a double agent working with Pakistan and Islamist terror elements.
The injuries he suffered were grievous in nature and he had to be rushed to North Evanston hospital.
He is reportedly admitted to the critical care unit and is under observation 24/7.
.....
Gautam

So this Badmash is also getting his jalebis.

[Prem]

x-post
https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/07/23/in ... -the-quad/
India Is the Weakest Link in the Quad

Since the Trump administration’s announcement that it seeks a “free and open” Indo-Pacific, observers have spilled much ink on the revival of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad, to achieve this objective. The Quad—an informal consultative mechanism comprising the United States, Australia, Japan, and India—is quietly opposed to China’s continued militarization of and attempts to control strategic waterways throughout the region, namely the South China Sea. The group met most recently last November, and again in June, after 10 years of inactivity.But the fate of the Quad is still fragile. Indeed, the first attempt at the Quad died on the vine because then-Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd withdrew over concerns that the Quad needlessly antagonized China. Today, however, following a burst of concern about Chinese influence, Australia is all in. So are the United States and Japan. That leaves India, where New Delhi may be getting cold feet.For starters, India seemed less enthusiastic about the Quad following the Wuhan summit. In April, Chinese President Xi Jinping invited Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Wuhan, China, for an informal summit. Xi’s decision proved to be exceptionally deft diplomacy. Bilateral relations had reached a nadir in 2017 primarily stemming from the monthslong military standoff at Doklam, which probably hastened India’s decision to re-engage the Quad in the first place. Although the two leaders did not issue a joint statement—underscoring their deep differences—they also agreed to find ways of working together.Shortly after Wuhan, New Delhi decided to reject fellow Quad member Australia’s request to participate in Malabar military exercises along with the United States and Japan. To be sure, this was the fourth year in a row India had rejected Australia’s participation, but the timing—the day following Wuhan—has widely been interpreted as a concession to Beijing. While there are reasonable Indian explanations for the decision, the timing seems unfortunate. Bringing Australia into Malabar for the first time would have sent a clear message that the naval component was active and that the Quad was unified, and rejecting Canberra sent the exact opposite message.
The second indication of trouble for India’s participation in the Quad arrived in June at the annual Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. Modi gave the keynote address, and while he spoke of the need to ensure a peaceful and stable Indo-Pacific region, matching Quad objectives, he nevertheless declined the opportunity to invoke the Quad and instead noted that “India does not see the Indo-Pacific Region as a strategy or as a club of limited members.” He further avoided criticizing or even mentioning China’s military expansion and growing assertiveness in the South China Sea. Modi’s comments stood in marked contrast with U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis’s speech, which heavily criticized Chinese actions.
Instead, Modi offered: “In April, a two-day informal summit with President Xi helped us cement our understanding that strong and stable relations between our two nations are an important factor for global peace and progress. I firmly believe that Asia and the world will have a better future when India and China work together in trust and confidence, sensitive to each other’s interests.” These words effectively crystallized the connection between Wuhan and an apparent softening of India’s position on the Quad.The following weekend, Modi attended the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Qingdao, China, for the first time as an official member of the group and met with Xi again on the sidelines. Modi and Xi agreed to find a project that they could work on collaboratively in Afghanistan and to engage Pakistan to reduce regional tensions.
But perhaps the most important development at the SCO summit was New Delhi signing onto the Qingdao Declaration, which noted that “economic globalisation is confronted with the expansion of unilateral protectionist policies.” This line has particular salience given the Trump administration’s ongoing trade frictions with multiple countries, including both China and India. Recent reports have since speculated that New Delhi may find it convenient to use bilateral trade as a crutch and “insurance policy” against Washington, should it need to do so. If true, Beijing would probably insist on India first leaving the Quad to fully benefit from this arrangement.Most recently, in early July, reports surfaced that New Delhi planned to brief China and Russia on its Indo-Pacific policy. India used the opportunity of the second maritime dialogue with Beijing to elaborate on its vision of the region, first laid out at the Shangri-La Dialogue by Modi. A key theme is that the Association for Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) should be central to the Indo-Pacific, implicitly meaning not the Quad or any single country.
But New Delhi has equally—if not more persuasive—arguments to remain a member and an active one. Regardless of any agreements reached at Wuhan, the reality is that India and China still have serious misgivings about each other. New Delhi reaffirmed its rejection of Xi’s signature Belt and Road Initiative and awkwardly broke annual consensus at the annual SCO summit over the issue. India believes that the initiative is targeting investment, trade, and infrastructure cooperation with small South Asian countries traditionally within India’s geostrategic orbit—such as Nepal, Bangladesh, the Maldives, and Sri Lanka—and New Delhi has vigorously pushed back by shoring up ties with these nations.India is aggressively seeking port access and joint development agreements with maritime states throughout the Indo-Pacific to deal with China’s growing influence. The strategy envisions countering Beijing’s establishment of a naval base at Djibouti and preventing additional access to new facilities. In the last year alone, New Delhi has been racing to forge agreements in diverse places including Duqm (Oman), Assumption Island (Seychelles), Chabahar (Iran), and Sabang (Indonesia). But eventual Indian Navy operations alone within this network will probably not be enough to ensure the entire Indo-Pacific remains stable and peaceful. Having the Quad members available to supplement and reinforce Indian operations at and via these ports could increase deterrence.

[nvishal]

https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/07/23/in ... -the-quad/
India Is the Weakest Link in the Quad

To be blunt, India has received more economic progress from China in these last 2 decades than in the last 50 years combined from the west.

China will replace the west in the next 25 years. It will become the new west. Technological and economic progress which once trickled from the west and into the developing states of the world will now flow through China. This is already happening.

Modi govt is being pragmatic. It understands that China will become increasingly important to indias economy in the coming future. The west(and japan) can see the coming change but cannot do anything about it. Their best hope is to have an india-china war(not just a skirmish) were both states will spend each other out conventionally.

Btw, India is the only state in the region that can challenge the Chinese. They will continue to find ways to overwhelm India's military might through force projection.

[Bart S]

https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/07/23/in ... -the-quad/
India Is the Weakest Link in the Quad

To be blunt, India has received more economic progress from China in these last 2 decades than in the last 50 years combined from the west.

China will replace the west in the next 25 years. It will become the new west. Technological and economic progress which once trickled from the west and into the developing states of the world will now flow through China. This is already happening.

Modi govt is being pragmatic. It understands that China will become increasingly important to indias economy in the coming future. The west(and japan) can see the coming change but cannot do anything about it. Their best hope is to have an india-china war(not just a skirmish) were both states will spend each other out conventionally.

Btw, India is the only state in the region that can challenge the Chinese. They will continue to find ways to overwhelm India's military might through force projection.

Typical anti-western/Indian-commie line of reasoning that views India as an insignificant nobody that need to cower before and suck up to one side or the other (preferably the commie side) and not recognize India for the 800lb gorilla that it will be in the near future.

China needs India more than we need them, and we hold a lot of the cards in the evolving Asia Pacific dynamic.

[nvishal]

^
India needs China (economically)
The world needs China
It is a bitter fact you refuse to acknowledge

Without China, the developing world(includes India), will have to go back to the west with an arm and a leg. This has been the way since 1950s. The arrival of China has changed the game and has given developing states like ours a much needed breathing space.

The world around us is ditching the west one at a time. We have to be pragmatic and acknowledge the coming change.

[Mukesh.Kumar]

Winds of change, when FoxNews starts tomtoming India against China.

[nvishal]

US Congress tailors waiver plan to let India purchase weaponry from Russia

Condescending, egotistic and patronizing, yes, but the americans are not able to see it. At this point in time, they don't care either.

It is strategic imperative for us to let the americans participate and respond to our tenders. This calms the american frustration. They are in a two front war themselves with china acquiring more global markets and russia doing the same in the defence sector.

[nits]

I am more worried that what has Khan got promised in return?

[Prem]

Indian H-1B applicants face particular scrutiny in Trump's work visa crackdown
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/indi ... 02694.html

Coming to the U.S. on a work visa is getting harder across the board, but workers from India in particular are feeling the effects of recent policy shifts from the Trump administration. A new report from the National Foundation for American Policy sheds light on how the "Buy American and Hire American" executive order from April 2017 has impacted H-1B applicants in the last year. The H-1B visa, popular in Silicon Valley, lets skilled foreign workers live and work in the U.S. for a six year term.For the three months period starting in July 2017, H-1B denial rates went from 15.9% to 22.4%. In the same time period, Requests for Evidence seeking additional documentation in the fourth quarter of 2017 nearly equaled the total amount of Requests for Evidence from the year's other three quarters combined (63,184 and 63,599 requests, respectively).Drilling down, workers from India appear to be the most affected. From July to September 2017, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) demanded additional documentation from 72% of Indian H-1B applications, compared to the 61% rate of other countries considered together. During that same three month period, 23.6% of Indian applications were rejected, up from 16.6% between April and June 2017."The increase in denials and Requests for Evidence of even the most highly skilled applicants seeking permission to work in America indicates the Trump administration is interested in less immigration, not 'merit-based' immigration," the report adds."... U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services has enacted a series of policies to make it more difficult for even the most highly educated scientists and engineers to work in the United States."In January, rumors of a ban on H-1B extensions for green card applicants had H-1B workers nervous. In June, new rules shortening visas for Chinese STEM students went into effect. While China only accounted for 9.4% of total H-1B visa applications in the 2017 fiscal year compared to India's whopping 76%, the Trump administration will likely continue to tighten immigration policies targeting China as it obsessively tries to turn the screws on its perceived trade nemesis.

[sum]

Wow..China is just 9.4%?
This means their best are heading home to their booming sectors while we continue to bleed and churn out more and more good candidates to help Amrika prosper

[chaitanya]

This is the most absurd piece of fake news I have seen against Hindus and Hinduism, spread by the New York Times:

This narrative about yoga’s ancient roots has become a sacrament for Hindu nationalists, and it is echoed in the West. But it is mostly myth, an idealized origin story of the kind so many would-be nation-builders, from ancient Rome to the Zionists, have fostered about themselves. The oldest Hindu scriptures contain almost no mention of physical postures. Even the Yoga Sutras, the so-called bible of yoga, include only a few short verses suggesting comfortable postures for sitting. Many of the postures practiced in yoga today appear to have emerged in the 19th and early 20th centuries. Dozens of modern ashtanga yoga postures are similar or identical to those found in a gymnastic routine introduced to India by the British in the first decades of the 20th century and originally developed by a Danish fitness instructor named Niels Bukh, who later became notorious for his pro-Nazi sympathies. Bukh, needless to say, has been conveniently forgotten by both Indians and the yoga-loving celebrities of Hollywood.

This needs to spread far and wide, so Indians know that even yoga is not safe. Do not click unless you want your BP to rise: The Billionaire Yogi Behind Modi’s Rise

[UlanBatori]

I am surprised. I thought EVERYONE knew that Yoga was developed by Yo-Yo Ga-Ga Maino, 6th coujin thrice removed, of Soniaji, who was a Vice Cardinal.

[pankajs]

This is the most absurd piece of fake news I have seen against Hindus and Hinduism, spread by the New York Times:

This narrative about yoga’s ancient roots has become a sacrament for Hindu nationalists, and it is echoed in the West. But it is mostly myth, an idealized origin story of the kind so many would-be nation-builders, from ancient Rome to the Zionists, have fostered about themselves. The oldest Hindu scriptures contain almost no mention of physical postures. Even the Yoga Sutras, the so-called bible of yoga, include only a few short verses suggesting comfortable postures for sitting. Many of the postures practiced in yoga today appear to have emerged in the 19th and early 20th centuries. Dozens of modern ashtanga yoga postures are similar or identical to those found in a gymnastic routine introduced to India by the British in the first decades of the 20th century and originally developed by a Danish fitness instructor named Niels Bukh, who later became notorious for his pro-Nazi sympathies. Bukh, needless to say, has been conveniently forgotten by both Indians and the yoga-loving celebrities of Hollywood.

This needs to spread far and wide, so Indians know that even yoga is not safe. Do not click unless you want your BP to rise: The Billionaire Yogi Behind Modi’s Rise

That's ok, I mean not the BP. It will not go far no matter how much propaganda is done. It is to be expected from folks who try to de-legitimise all native knowledge and claim it as their own.

1. Yoga is mentioned is our oldest texts.

2. No one can *erase* the Indus-Saraswati valley era seal depicting a yogi seated in the padmasana or whatever the pose is called. And this is decidedly older than our oldest texts per the Western Indologists.

3. While it is true that Yoga Sutra does not have explicit mention of the poses/asanas but that is neither here nor there. Books on advanced study do make assumptions about readers knowledge of the basics. E.g. No mathematics book that is used for PhD starts with Numbers, counting and Addition/Subtraction. The knowledge of the prior level is implicit. Same with Yoga Sutras of Patanjali which is decidedly a advanced level book given the topic that it covers.

4. When GOI started documenting Yoga poses after the Bikram Yoga patent they also need to reference the source. E.g. Goraksha Samhita from the 10th-11th century. {Source: Wiki} much earlier than the 19th century Europeans.

That is enough to junk the theory. BTW, spreading the offending piece without spreading the counter is not very useful as it only ends up spreading the one-sided narrative. My very very limited understanding is based on a few pieces on the internet that I have encountered but not actively sought.

Their main angst is that indigenous knowledge that is accepted by the world becomes a source of pride for the locals and thus upends their agenda. When you want to destroy/subjugate a country/people you have to destroy their faith in their own indigenous system/knowledge. Only then will they accept foreign prescription on anything/everything.

Their secondary angst is that this new found "source of pride" then helps fuel the rise of *nationalists* who act as an obstruction in their path to make/remake a country/people in their own vision.

[g.sarkar]

The West thinks of Yoga as "asanas" period. But Yoga is just not asanas. (The traditional eight limbs of Yoga are: Yama, Niyama, Asana, Pranayama, Pratyahara, Dharana, Dhayana, and Samadhi. So, technically asanas are just 1/8th of the total). Traditionally, Yoga is defined as the restraining the mind to form thoughts (Patanjali). The Lord has defined it as Karmasu Kausalam. All these subtleties are not known or accepted in the West and Yoga is considered to be secular. Knowledge of Yoga is very superficial here. If you go to a Yoga school you will get asanas, or if you are very lucky you will be given some pranayam.
Gautam

[UlanBatori]

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/2 ... 2018-07-23
26/11 plotter David Headley battling for life after attack in US prison
David Headley, Pakistani-American convicted in the 26/11 Mumbai terror attacks, is battling for his life after being attacked by two inmates at the Metropolitan Correctional Center in Chicago.
Headley was reportedly attacked on July 8 by two other inmates as he had been a double agent working with Pakistan and Islamist terror elements.
The injuries he suffered were grievous in nature and he had to be rushed to North Evanston hospital.
He is reportedly admitted to the critical care unit and is under observation 24/7.
.....
Gautam

Don't want to **APPEAR** insensitive and uncaring but..
This news is too good 2 b true. I think they have got him to disappear, maybe even "die" as he is assigned to the New Terroristan. Perhaps as US Ambassador to Terroristan, more probably as Lie-A-Son to sell give arms to the terrorists like Christina Rocca (??) was when she was the Trader of Stinger Missiles to the Pakiban - and later Customer For Same Missiles.

Note elsewhere that F-35s to Turkey have been delayed indefinitely... replacement customer needed.

[sanjayc]

Strange that David Headley and Rabindra Singh (RAW), two dudes of interest to India, dying unnatural deaths (Headley well on the way). Sounds suspicious. Maybe a drama to ensure that Indians stop tracking them

[Guddu]

With Trump, looks like the US may have decided that China is the bigger threat than Russia. I think Trump will get closer to Russia and ween them away from Cheenis. It is clear to me that Trump is planning to bring down China, global supply chains will be altered. India should be taking advantage of the situation, currently the US needs allies to bring down China. By buying US goods on which China has placed tariffs, India can leverage it to benefit. Trump made a mistake by antagonizing the whole world EU, China, Russia, Mexico, Canada. He has already made peace with EU, Mexico and Canada are next with Nafta. Focus will be on bringing China to its heels. US National security is at stake. A lot of smart people say that China is going to be the major domo, but it would not be wise to count the US out.

[A_Gupta]

On Yoga:
https://www.academia.edu/4569479/UNPUBL ... o=download

UNPUBLISHED MANUSCRIPT EVIDENCE FOR THE PRACTICE OF NUMEROUS ASANAS in the 17th-18th Centuries

[UlanBatori]

Trump's style is to antagonize, push to the limits, and then hug just as the other side decides they have had enough and are launching their missiles. EU tamasha is just that: tamasha. I fear that the same is true with the China dance: he is not serious about pushing China and hurting US economy.
All else aside, his metrics are a) Does this Make America Great Again? b) Does it add jobs in US? India is OK on a) but has to tread carefully to show that b) is consistent with Indian priorities.

I don't believe that Eyeran is a priority one way or the other with DT: in fact he and the Ayatollahs will get along famously, if they sit down to chat about KSA being a bunch of dogs. Plus plans for Trump Towers Teheran and resorts on Fao Peninsula with Boat Tours of the Straits of Hormuz.

[Pulikeshi]

This is the most absurd piece of fake news I have seen against Hindus and Hinduism, spread by the New York Times:

This narrative about yoga’s ancient roots has become a sacrament for Hindu nationalists, and it is echoed in the West....

This needs to spread far and wide, so Indians know that even yoga is not safe. Do not click unless you want your BP to rise: The Billionaire Yogi Behind Modi’s Rise

I am surprised. I thought EVERYONE knew that Yoga was developed by Yo-Yo Ga-Ga Maino, 6th coujin thrice removed, of Soniaji, who was a Vice Cardinal.

Dictum: All terrorism has origins in Paki just as all Indology indoctrination has origins in Briturdom.

Got trolled on this Danish Yoga (iirc the original was from a BBC documentary... need to look it up) a while ago... much before this article.
Having spent sometime reading the Yogasutra and other works in Sanskrit, it seems absurd to react to this with anger or seriousness...
What is needed is pragmatic opportunism

The key is not to react with evidence and waste time in convincing the unconvinced, but to adopt a different strategy....

When I was trolled, I said, “Fine, Why are you not doing Yoga? Since Yoga is indeed European in orgin according to you...”
“Let me tell you more about Pranayama!” Breathe...

[nvishal]

Another US-india bill introduced in the US parliament

A bipartisan bill has been introduced in the U.S. Congress that seeks to advance the U.S.-India strategic partnership to a new level for collective military planning and maritime security framework, apparently to resist Chinese hegemony in the Indo-Pacific region.

Balancing one state against the other. They want to rent india for a while.

The bill seeks to approve and facilitate the transfer of advanced technology and strategic capability...and supports combined military planning with India for missions

All under various conditions. The money we spent on buying american hardware is eventually going to be diverted to maintain the nation state of pakistan. This has been happening since the 50s. This is the basis of the balancing strategy.

It also reassures India that the U.S. recognizes the importance of security of supply for major defense capabilities acquired from the U.S. and its industries, and "as such will endeavor to not disrupt such supply."

Assurances of zeros embargo's on one hand
and
CAATSA on another

You don't need to be an expert to spot a surface contradiction. The text in the bill is a marketing brochure - aimed for india to see.

The bill also proposes collaboration with India in developing mutually agreeable ... end use monitoring arrangements

It promotes policies ... to advance U.S. interests in the South Asia and greater Indo-Asia-Pacific regions

The coverage on FE

the act urges the US to encourage and facilitate India’s role as priority partners in the South Asia and greater Indo-Asia- Pacific regions

...to be a pawn in someone elses hand

It asks the US to support the mutual interest in maritime security and maritime domain awareness, as well as enhanced military cooperation in joint exercises, training, and humanitarian assistance and disaster relief.

The underlined part is a common line used in this context. It got there after some US military personnel claimed to have forged personal relationships with their indian military counterparts during a few humanitarian interactions in the indian ocean tsunami incident. It was said in a think thank discussion that if the GoI was not entertaining the americans, they should instead use these humanitarian missions to forge private relations with indian military personnels, who could then go on to influence people inside the indian govt.

Among other things, it urges the US to conduct a joint assessment ... of the extent to which India possesses capabilities to support and carry out military operations of mutual interest to the United States and India

I would like to have a group of villagers tie up ami bera to a tree when he comes to india. And then have them throw gobbar on his face

[nvishal]

India ready to sign COMCASA pact with United States

http://www.janes.com/article/82019/indi ... ted-states

Official sources told Jane’s on 26 July that COMCASA was likely to be signed during the inaugural ‘2+2 meeting’ in New Delhi on 6 September between India’s defence and foreign ministers, Nirmala Sitharaman and Sushma Swaraj, and their US counterparts, James Mattis and Mike Pompeo.

This is three day old report and from Jane's.

WTF !!!

[CRamS]

I read that tripe about Baba Ramdev earlier this week. The erudite A_GuptaJi beat me to it for that scholarly reference on Yogasanas from ancient Hindu scriptures. Also, requested mistro Rajiv MalhotraJi to comment.

But I can bet you, Lutyen arse holes like Aakar Patel, Ram Guha etc in India who self proclaim themselves as historians are going to have a field day provoking the likes of Ramdev etc by citing, oh my God, the revered NYT for saying Yoga does not belong to Hindus, its the mighty white enlightened white Europeans who taught the world Yoga. It will now become fashionable in elite circles in India to start dissing RamdevJi as a fraud and a copy cat for stealing Yogasanas from whites and fooling the gullible people.

I need to dig out the original classic on Yoga by the late Shri BK Iyengar, pretty sure he will have a lot of references.

[souravB]

I still don't understand the point many journo is highlighting that US datalink and comm equipment is better than what we use today. I mean do we have any metric to make that comparison even? We buy it OTS, that doesn't mean it is already compromised also I don't believe our military buys them on Amazon.
So we are basically signing an agreement that may or may not provide any significant advantage on the equipment we are actually signing the agreement for. Great!!!

[arshyam]

India ready to sign COMCASA pact with United States

http://www.janes.com/article/82019/indi ... ted-states

Official sources told Jane’s on 26 July that COMCASA was likely to be signed during the inaugural ‘2+2 meeting’ in New Delhi on 6 September between India’s defence and foreign ministers, Nirmala Sitharaman and Sushma Swaraj, and their US counterparts, James Mattis and Mike Pompeo.

This is three day old report and from Jane's.

WTF !!!

I don't think we will do anything of the sort for two reasons:
1. This is reported by Janes as "news", but is a trial balloon masquerading as news, and intended to put us on the defensive before the 2+2 meet. Classic negotiating tactic: we will be expected to "give up" COMCASA for the time being in return for something else, say dump the S-400 purchase. We won't do that either, so let's see how this turns out. It will interesting for sure.
2. Politics, pure and simple. With the elections coming up next year, this will give the opposition enough ammo that the govt is selling out the country, and this time, it will definitely stick. So the govt won't go down that path. We will simply tarry the decision and keep talking and push it beyond 2019. The US also knows this, hence the trial balloon I mentioned above.

[Viv S]

This is reported by Janes as "news", but is a trial balloon masquerading as news, and intended to put us on the defensive before the 2+2 meet. Classic negotiating tactic: we will be expected to "give up" COMCASA for the time being in return for something else, say dump the S-400 purchase. We won't do that either, so let's see how this turns out. It will interesting for sure.

Except that its been widely reported as being in the final stages for months.

March 27 - India, US to reopen talks on Comcasa - Economic Times

March 27 - India close to signing COMCASA with US - Hindu Businessline

May 4 - India to re-examine defence pacts with US - Financial Express

June 8 - India, US 2+2 dialogue likely in September - HT ("with both sides seeking closure on COMCASA at the meeting")

June 18 - Road map laid for India-U.S. meet - The Hindu ("key focus areas of the meeting that began here on Monday morning is finding a breakthrough in concluding COMCASA")

Jun 22 - Comcasa: India wants reliability assurance - Economic Times
_____________________________________________________

Final proposal from India drafted and forwarded to the US -

June 23 - Key defence agreement with the US finally within reach - Business Standard

After three days of intensive negotiations in New Delhi, from Monday to Wednesday, only three points of disagreement remain in finalizing the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA), which will allow the US to transfer highly secure communications equipment to India.

Top defence ministry sources say negotiations were conducted with unusual purpose, with both sides hoping the agreement could be announced at the inaugural “two-plus-two” US-India dialogue on July 6, when Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj and Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will jointly meet their American counterparts, Mike Pompeo and Jim Mattis.

However, agreement on those three points remains elusive and at least one more round of negotiations would be required. A key part of the dispute relates to “sovereignty issues”, including visits by US inspectors to Indian bases where the COMCASA-safeguarded equipment is deployed.

Business Standard learns that the proposals India provided to break the deadlock are being taken back by the US legal negotiating team to Washington, for legal vetting.

And finally from day before yesterday -

July 26 - India, US set to sign pact for secure military communications - Indian Express

The government, sources said, has told the Americans to send the final text of the agreement, so that the process of signing can be expedited in time for the ‘2+2’ meeting.

India and the US are likely to sign the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA), a bilateral pact between the two countries for secure military communications, during the inaugural ‘2+2’ meeting in New Delhi in the first week of September. Official sources told The Indian Express that the government had made up its mind to sign the agreement which had been pending for nearly 15 years now. The government, sources said, has told the Americans to send the final text of the agreement, so that the process of signing can be expedited in time for the ‘2+2’ meeting.

After being postponed twice this year, the inaugural ‘2+2’ meeting is scheduled to be held in New Delhi on September 6. External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj and Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will be attending the meeting, along with their American counterparts, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Secretary of Defence James Mattis.

The government considered concerns about intrusive American access to encrypted Indian military communication systems and sharing of that data with other countries. There is also a fear among defence services that a lot of Russian-origin and indigenous Indian military platforms may not be compatible with COMCASA.

“It is eventually a matter of trust. When we are importing so much military equipment from the US, do we really believe that they can’t monitor things that they want to? We have to build adequate checks and balances in the India-specific agreement about this access to our communication systems. The Americans are equally concerned about the Russian S-400 system because they feel it could access their systems in use with us. It is something we have to deal with as long as we are heavily importing military equipment,” official sources said.

On concerns about violation of Indian sovereignty due to visits by US inspectors to Indian bases to inspect the COMCASA-safeguarded equipment, sources said that it was no longer an issue.

COMCASA is meant to provide a legal framework for transfer of communication security equipment from the US to India that would facilitate “interoperability” between their forces — and potentially with other militaries that use US-origin systems for secured data links. American officials contend that COMCASA will facilitate the use of high-end secured communication equipment to be installed on military platforms being sold to India, and fully exploit their potential.

India’s armed forces, they argue, are currently dependent on less secure, commercially available communication systems on high-end American platforms like C-130Js and the P-8I maritime surveillance aircraft. These platforms are, therefore, unable to share data in real time with other friendly militaries using American platforms, besides creating problems of interoperability during training exercises and humanitarian assistance and disaster relief operations.

The general agreement signed by the US with other countries is called the Communication and Information on Security Memorandum of Agreement (CISMOA) but the name was changed to COMCASA to reflect its India-specific nature. A US military negotiating team was in New Delhi last month to respond to Indian objections and formulate a mutually acceptable text for the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement.

COMCASA is part of a set of three military agreements that the US considers “foundational” for a functional military relationship. In August 2016, India had signed the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA), which allows the military of each country to replenish from the other’s bases. Negotiations on the third agreement, Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement for Geo-spatial Cooperation (BECA), have not yet begun.

[pankajs]

The COMCASA has been in the news for quite a while, enough time for the GOI to issue denials/rebuttals. I don't recall any but I wasn't focused on this issue.

If there has been no denials that clearly means that GOI is intent on signing on to some form of COMCASA. It might be a tight version as with allies or a much watered down version but it is coming in one form or the other whether it is signed during the 2+2 or not.

[kshirin]

Posted in another thread "That is why I am asking, as a very concerned and agonised citizen, how are some of you sure we are not going to sign? It will put paid to indigenous industry, which is getting NO support. IIT (M) has come up with an indigenous chip, others have created high technology, but there are no takers as the major part of defence capital outlay has gone for imports.

[pankajs]

What I wrote before makes it a strong Indicator but not infallible i.e. to say that GOI has denied and done the opposite or not denied but not done anything.

[nvishal]

Janes was the first to report that india was withdrawing from the FGFA project. The decision wasnt released in any press release from the ministry. It took the defence minister another 1-2 months to answer publicily. That to after a journo asked about its status in a public press conference.

If janes is reporting that COMCOSA is happening, it most probably is. It will be similar to the nuke deal where part of the indian reactors come under IAEA watch(civilian) and some(military use) don't.

The nuke deal was a mistake. People thought that india would get clear access to uranium and parts though that deal. It didn't happen. With COMCOSA, the indian govt thinks that it'll get access to current generation military hardware from the west. It will eventually become another mistake.

The money we spent on buying american hardware is diverted to maintain pakistan as a balance in south asia. We make it easier for the americans by spending billions on US hardware. The centre left(INC) were always a wee bit careful in matters of foreign policy and national security than the right wing (BJP). The INC should have cornered the govt on COMCOSA rather than the non-existent rafale scam.

[Viv S]

Posted in another thread "That is why I am asking, as a very concerned and agonised citizen, how are some of you sure we are not going to sign? It will put paid to indigenous industry, which is getting NO support. IIT (M) has come up with an indigenous chip, others have created high technology, but there are no takers as the major part of defence capital outlay has gone for imports.

COMCASA has little to do with 'indigenous chips' or indigenization in general. The monetary/industrial value of US/European comm equipment replaced by domestic alternatives, on specific platforms, is minimal, to say the least.

The implications of the agreement are primarily strategic, it being like the LEMOA, an enabler of interoperability with Western militaries (for better or worse).

[pankajs]

The nuke deal was a mistake. People thought that india would get clear access to uranium and parts though that deal. It didn't happen. With COMCOSA, the indian govt thinks that it'll get access to current generation military hardware from the west. It will eventually become another mistake.

The money we spent on buying american hardware is diverted to maintain pakistan as a balance in south asia. We make it easier for the americans by spending billions on US hardware. The centre left(INC) were always a wee bit careful in matters of foreign policy and national security than the right wing (BJP). The INC should have cornered the govt on COMCOSA rather than the non-existent rafale scam.

I did recall reading India signing a flurry of agreements with Kazakhstan, Canada and Australia on Uranium imports. Did a quick google search.

https://energyinfrapost.com/imports-uranium-india/
Imports of Uranium By India [Jul 21, 2016]

Name of the Firm & Country/Year 2014-15 2015-16
Quantity in (MT)
M/s. JSC TVEL Corporation, Russia 296.54* 303.78*
NIL 42.15$
M/s. JSC NAC Kazatomprom, Kazakhstan 283.4# NIL
M/s. Cameco, Canada NIL 250.74#

* In the form of Natural Uranium Di-oxide Pellets.
$ In the form of Enriched Uranium Di-oxide Pellets.
# In the form of Natural Uranium Ore-Concentrate.

There are your Uranium imports enabled by the Nuclear deal.

This information was provided by the Union Minister of State (Independent Charge) Development of North-Eastern Region (DoNER), MoS PMO, Personnel, Public Grievances & Pensions, Atomic Energy and Space, Dr Jitendra Singh in written reply to a question in Lok Sabha on July 20.

Now this data is supposed to be from a reply given by GOI to the Lok Sabha. I did not go further to the original source to verify.

If the data is correct then based on your logic Nuclear deal is a success. Are we forgetting to ask the basic questions?

[Viv S]

The nuke deal was a mistake. People thought that india would get clear access to uranium and parts though that deal. It didn't happen.

They thought right and it did happen.

The 123 agreement between India & US was merely a byproduct of the actual deal - which involved the US using its diplomatic clout (in Europe and with China) to push an India-specific exemption through the NSG & IAEA. Those exemptions enabled India to sign nuclear agreements with a dozen countries including uranium exporters like Kazakhstan, Canada, Australia, Uzbekistan, Namibia etc, and as of April 2015 had received 4000 tonnes of uranium ore.

Agreements signed for supply of nuclear fuel - PIB

With COMCOSA, the indian govt thinks that it'll get access to current generation military hardware from the west. It will eventually become another mistake.

India already has access to most current generation military hardware from the West, sans comms & IFF. (Also, its COMCASA.)

The money we spent on buying american hardware is diverted to maintain pakistan as a balance in south asia. We make it easier for the americans by spending billions on US hardware. The centre left(INC) were always a wee bit careful in matters of foreign policy and national security than the right wing (BJP). The INC should have cornered the govt on COMCOSA rather than the non-existent rafale scam.

US aid to Pakistan has been squeezed down to a trickle, and exists to keep ISAF's LOCs open (via Karachi). It'll end when they pull out of Afghanistan and not a day sooner. Its got nothing do with the balance of power in South Asia, or the aid wouldn't have been turned off in the 90s. The BOP that the US is actually concerned about is the one that exists in the Indo-Pacific region, East Asia to be specific.

[pankajs]

Further .... Department of Atomic energy link

http://dae.nic.in/writereaddata/parl/bu ... ssq368.pdf
PRODUCTION AND IMPORT OF URANIUM [RAJYA SABHA STARRED QUESTION NO.368* TO BE ANSWERED ON 06.04.2017]

Quotes >>

1. About 860 MT of uranium is required annually.
2. Pursuant to the Civil Nuclear cooperation, around 7810 MT of Natural Uranium and about 100 MT of Enriched Uranium has been imported from France, Russia, Kazakhstan and Canada since the year 2009 to till date.

<< End Quote

Google page 1 result.

[nvishal]

Dear members, the bottom line, the nuke deal never actually went through. We never got a membership in the NSG. The separate bilateral agreements with individual nations are based on the US nod, not the NSG. That means all those bilateral agreements can become illegal if the US decides so. Had we got an NSG nod, that would have ensured unrestricted supply.

Currently, our nuclear reactors are at the mercy of the US. That is why we aren't expanding this sector. If we expand this sector solely on the basis of US nod, it gives the americans enormous strategic leverage over us. In essence, the nuke deal: 1) Didn't give a legal waiver(Supply can be disrupted on whim) and 2) It restricts us from testing our warhead designs

I hope you understand.

[Viv S]

Dear members, the bottom line, the nuke deal never actually went through. We never got a membership in the NSG. The separate bilateral agreements with individual nations are based on the US nod, not the NSG.

The nuclear deal was never about membership in the NSG. That possibility arose much later.

The bilateral agreements with individual nations are NOT based on a "US nod", whatever that is. Its based on a waiver from the NSG, without which the countries in question (who're all NSG members) would not have been a position to trade with India legally.

Getting a waiver from the NSG required the unanimous consent from all its members which is where the US lobbying campaign on India's behalf was critical.

That means all those bilateral agreements can become illegal if the US decides so. Had we got an NSG nod, that would have ensured unrestricted supply.
Currently, our nuclear reactors are at the mercy of the US. That is why we aren't expanding this sector. If we expand this sector solely on the basis of US nod, it gives the americans enormous strategic leverage over us. In essence, the nuke deal: 1) Didn't give a legal waiver(Supply can be disrupted on whim) and 2) It restricts us from testing our warhead designs

I hope you understand.

That is utter nonsense. The US is not the NSG. If the NSG waiver with India is to be scrapped, it again requires the unanimous consent of all 48 member countries including France, Russia, Japan and every other country that we have signed a nuclear agreement with.

To sum up -

1. We DO have a legal waiver from the NSG.
2. The waiver is NOT conditional on India's (voluntary) moratorium on testing.
2. Supply can NOT be disrupted by any third party including the US.
3. The nuclear power sector IS expanding (the pace and scale of which is a function of other factors).

[nvishal]

I will not fall for the above arbitrary arguments.

There is no such thing as an NSG waiver. You are either an NSG member or you are not. What the hell is an in-between (Mr. arre, im not member but I have been waived off only) ? Na idar ka, na udar ka. Sab latkoo mai.