India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

[Yagnasri]

The biggest problem is the Paki involvement and that is not going to stop unless there is a serious pain to Pakis.

[Philip]

Past time for the US to find new (Paki) butts to kick!

[Austin]

Donald Trump Nudges India: You Make Billions With US, Help More In Afghanistan

The US' South Asia strategy will change dramatically, Donald Trump said
He asked India to provide more economic assistance to Afghanistan
Mr Trump said Pakistan harbours same terrorists the US is fighting

US President Donald Trump today said he will work to boost strategic partnership with India for achieving peace and stability in Afghanistan, and asked New Delhi to provide more economic assistance to the war-torn country since "India makes billions of dollars in trade with the US".

Mr Trump, in a televised address to the nation as Commander-in-Chief, laid out his South Asia policy saying a "critical part" of it was to further develop US' strategic partnership with India, while criticising Pakistan for supporting terror groups although Islamabad gets billions in aid from the US.

India, the world's largest democracy, is a key security and economic partner of the US, Mr Trump said. "We appreciate India's important contributions to stability in Afghanistan, but India makes billions of dollars in trade with the US, and we want them to help us more with Afghanistan, especially in the area of economic assistance and development," Mr Trump said.

"We are committed to pursuing our shared objectives for peace and security in South Asia and the broader Indo-Pacific region," said the US President.

He said after a "comprehensive review", it was decided that the American strategy in Afghanistan and South Asia will change dramatically.

In his speech, Mr Trump came down heavily on Pakistan for supporting terror groups. "We can no longer be silent about Pakistan's safe havens for terrorist organisations, the Taliban, and other groups that pose a threat to the region and beyond," he said.

"In the past, Pakistan has been a valued partner. Our militaries have worked together against common enemies. The Pakistani people have suffered greatly from terrorism and extremism. We recognise those contributions and those sacrifices," Mr Trump said.

"But Pakistan has also sheltered the same organisations that try every single day to kill our people," he added.

Mr Trump said the US has been paying Pakistan billions of dollars but it continues to house the very terrorists that America is fighting.

"But that will have to change. That will change immediately. No partnership can survive a country's harbouring of militants and terrorists who target US service members and officials. It is time for Pakistan to demonstrate its commitment to civilisation, order, and to peace," Mr Trump said.

In a statement following Mr Trump's address, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson echoed the President's views on enhanced role for India in the new South Asia strategy. "India will be an important partner in the effort to ensure peace and stability in the region, and we welcome its role in supporting Afghanistan's political and economic modernisation," he said.

[Cain Marko]

Question is - is india willing to take military and human losses in af-pak? This could be the pivotal decision that will determine the future role of a United Bharat. My guess is that boots on the ground is a given, just when.

That is not the full equation... You should be asking will India's military costs in Afganistan be less than India taking back PoK / Aksai Chin in a military conflict.

If the US backs India in PoK, you can bet their rabid pet dogs in the Paki army will stand down.

India will get POK back via some US pressure on TSP jarnails? I'm not so sure although one hopes that is the case, especially not with theiir taller than mountain friends....Nor will the ISI types let go of their main recruitment tool - azad cashmere. Nor will cheen want to let go of their footing in the area so easily. The idea of TSP is based on hate for India, and kashmir is the crucial component of this ideology. Doubt it will simply rollover and hand it to India

my reading is that initial alliances are being formed - will be very interesting to see which way russia goes, this is crucial.

[abhijitm]

Trump sounds like India is under obligation to serve US in a'stan because we do billions of $ trade with them. This is second time trump has mentioned $ and India in his speech.

[Austin]

What will 5000 more troops on Ground do in Afnistan that 1 lakh plus troops couldnt not do 6 years back ? Afnistan is now a case of cut your losses and move then gain something

[Philip]

The US should impose sanctions mil and eco on Pak for support to the Taliban,sheltering and nurturing Islamic terrorists,etc.,etc. In fact,the sanctions that the US has imposed upon Iran should instead be used against Pak,which has a proven track record of N-proliferation with NoKo,etc.,plus it being the global epi-centre of Islamist terror.Once sanctions start biting,we will see the Paki pigs squeal.The US can also make high sea inspections of vessels entering and leaving Pak ports,throw a cordon sanitaire if need be ,esp. around Gwadar (!),and demand that Pak de-nuclearise or face further sanctions/penalties. Let's see what the headless porkers then do.

[Manish_P]

"We appreciate India's important contributions to stability in Afghanistan, but India makes billions of dollars in trade with the US, and we want them to help us more with Afghanistan, especially in the area of economic assistance and development," Mr Trump said.

The US can save a lot of billions that it gifts/pays extortion money to the Pakis

No partnership can survive a country's harbouring of militants and terrorists who target US service members and officials.

So what else is new

[Singha]

perhaps the open invite to india to sink our claws deeper in there under the guise of development programs is to needle TSP. nothing gets them worked up more than indians roaming in afghanistan under govt support.
he never asked for any troops.

[chetak]

Trump sounds like India is under obligation to serve US in a'stan because we do billions of $ trade with them. This is second time trump has mentioned $ and India in his speech.

we have avoided the "boots on the ground" syndrome so far, in any country, in spite of the very eager and long time US chivvying to get us to commit forces in eyraq and also afghanistan.

trump is no body special to us. He is a typical US carpetbagger, thinking that he has Modi on the run because of India's coming elections and also weapon sales to India and so he has homed on to $ trade to find a stick to beat Modi with.

trump/US will not help us with china, nor with the pakis, except for some useless words and homilies that he thinks that Modi wants to hear, like security council, NSG, visas and more trade on offer.

we should simply continue with the same old same old and just go about our normal business.

Let the US stew in it's own juice and for all the help it has given to the pakis and harm done to us because of that, let it's bad karma bite it hard on the arse as it surely deserves and donald can go to hell along with his $ trade

[chetak]

What will 5000 more troops on Ground do in Afnistan that 1 lakh plus troops couldnt not do 6 years back ? Afnistan is now a case of cut your losses and move then gain something

Body bags coming out of afghanistan is a zero sum game.

Indian boots on the ground, either under amreki command or under amreki directions means more Indian body bags and less amreki ones.

what Indian military objectives can we/do we have in afghanistan?? some quickly made up mickey mouse ones to justify the deployment??

[chetak]

perhaps the open invite to india to sink our claws deeper in there under the guise of development programs is to needle TSP. nothing gets them worked up more than indians roaming in afghanistan under govt support.
he never asked for any troops.

But he wants India's help there. Surely he will not ask for baba ramdev and patanjali, though a lot of MNCs will be very glad if he did.

The situation has changed because of CPEC and the entry of the hans into the equation.

This is a very avoidable minefield.

[yensoy]

In order to break Pak stranglehold on Afghanistan, the following 2 are BOTH required:
1. Charbahar port and highway/railway through Iran into Afghanistan; North-South connector in Afganistan
2. Secession of Baluchistan and construction of a North-South highway from free Gwadar into Afghanistan

This is the only true long-term solution for us to get into Afghanistan in any major way. If only one of the above happens, we will be at the mercy of Iran or independent Baluchistan, neither of who will be in a mood to listen.

[abhijitm]

Help us liberate balochistan and after we secure logistic to afghanistan then we can engage more. Till then baba ji ka thallu.

[Manish_P]

we should simply continue with the same old same old and just go about our normal business.

Let the US stew in it's own juice and for all the help it has given to the pakis and harm done to us because of that, let it's bad karma bite it hard on the arse as it surely deserves and donald can go to hell along with his $ trade

+1

[yensoy]

I guess uncle Donald can wave the big stick of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conventio ... ked_States (and its successor UNCLOS) against the Pakis.

[chetak]

In order to break Pak stranglehold on Afghanistan, the following 2 are BOTH required:
1. Charbahar port and highway/railway through Iran into Afghanistan; North-South connector in Afganistan
2. Secession of Baluchistan and construction of a North-South highway from free Gwadar into Afghanistan

This is the only true long-term solution for us to get into Afghanistan in any major way. If only one of the above happens, we will be at the mercy of Iran or independent Baluchistan, neither of who will be in a mood to listen.

I would not place too much reliance on the chabahar port and mark my words.

this is a taqiya project for iran and they will take it over completely and cut us entirely out of the picture once the port is ready and it starts to operate successfully and profitably.

among the first things that they will do is to link it with gwadar port via a heavy duty han built rail and road freight corridor.

these aholes simply cannot be trusted. deceit is inherent in all their dealings.

[Manish_P]

Help us liberate balochistan and after we secure logistic to afghanistan then we can engage more. Till then baba ji ka thallu.

+1 with just one change

Help us Let the US liberate balochistan and after we have secure logistic to afghanistan then we can engage more. Till then baba ji ka thallu.

Abhijit ji, IMHO Baluchistan once 'lliberated' will go down the islamic path sooner rather than later. That's the nature of the beast.

[abhijitm]

these treaties mean nothing in reality. Pak still dont allow our trucks to pass through their territory to afghanistan.

[abhijitm]

Help us liberate balochistan and after we secure logistic to afghanistan then we can engage more. Till then baba ji ka thallu.

+1 with just one change

Help us Let the US liberate balochistan and after we have secure logistic to afghanistan then we can engage more. Till then baba ji ka thallu.

Abhijit ji, IMHO Baluchistan once 'lliberated' will go down the islamic path sooner rather than later. That's the nature of the beast.

US will not do it on its own. We need to do the heavy lifting if our long term strategic gain is more important. US can secure us arms, fuel, political coverage and eastern sea cover from china.

balochistan is no less islamic than saudis. but who doesn't like money power and women?... irrespective of religion. There are means to control.

[yensoy]

I would not place too much reliance on the chabahar port and mark my words. this is a taqiya project for iran and they will take it over completely and cut us entirely out of the picture once the port is ready and it starts to operate successfully and profitably.

among the first things that they will do is to link it with gwadar port via a heavy duty han built rail and road freight corridor. these aholes simply cannot be trusted. deceit is inherent in all their dealings.

Absolutely, which is why we need a competition to Charbahar as well. But the entire lot in that part of the world can't be trusted - neither the Baluchis, nor the Iranians, nor the Afghans themselves.

As I said earlier today, our hold on Charbahar can only come with US indemnification of the port and roads - that is the only way Iran could be persuaded into co-operating with us. Given the risk in the process, return on investment should be very quick - minerals should start flowing out as soon as the road link is made.

these treaties mean nothing in reality. Pak still dont allow our trucks to pass through their territory to afghanistan.

Now I am convinced that the only way for Donald to carry out his threats against Pakistan is if he can continue to get land transit without Paki blackmail, and that will happen only if he is able to demand it as a right rather than a privilege. He can - under threat of force - extract cooperation from the Pakis. We can't but he can, and we could ride his coat-tails to invest. That is the only way I see which is feasible in the near term.

[Manish_P]

There are means to control.

None assured, Sir. And certainly none in which we would be the only player in the game. Else we would have been controlling Pukistan, rendering all the other issues (Afghanistan, Iran, China) moot.

[chetak]

I would not place too much reliance on the chabahar port and mark my words. this is a taqiya project for iran and they will take it over completely and cut us entirely out of the picture once the port is ready and it starts to operate successfully and profitably.

among the first things that they will do is to link it with gwadar port via a heavy duty han built rail and road freight corridor. these aholes simply cannot be trusted. deceit is inherent in all their dealings.

Absolutely, which is why we need a competition to Charbahar as well. But the entire lot in that part of the world can't be trusted - neither the Baluchis, nor the Iranians, nor the Afghans themselves.

As I said earlier today, our hold on Charbahar can only come with US indemnification of the port and roads - that is the only way Iran could be persuaded into co-operating with us. Given the risk in the process, return on investment should be very quick - minerals should start flowing out as soon as the road link is made.

these treaties mean nothing in reality. Pak still dont allow our trucks to pass through their territory to afghanistan.

Now I am convinced that the only way for Donald to carry out his threats against Pakistan is if he can continue to get land transit without Paki blackmail, and that will happen only if he is able to demand it as a right rather than a privilege. He can - under threat of force - extract cooperation from the Pakis. We can't but he can, and we could ride his coat-tails to invest. That is the only way I see which is feasible in the near term.

all the good work that we have done in afghanistan over the years will be for naught, if we get involved with the amrekis there.

Our work is now recognized on its own strength because we do not have ulterior motives that will make the afghanis doubt our objectives or be afraid of a secret Indian agenda.

We will easily destroy all our goodwill in one single stroke or misstep.

If push comes to shove, just continue to do your own work there as you have been doing all this while.

[arun]

Trump sounds like India is under obligation to serve US in a'stan because we do billions of $ trade with them. This is second time trump has mentioned $ and India in his speech.

The sentence in his speech where he says “We appreciate India’s important contributions to stability in Afghanistan, but India makes billions of dollars in trade with the United States, and we want them to help us more with Afghanistan, especially in the area of economic assistance and development.”, made it also seem to me that Donald Trump is labouring under the mistaken notion that India is under obligation to serve the US in Afghanistan because India trades with the US . Very sadly it seems that our Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s abjectly grovelling half wit Saudi Princes type "flattery " of US President Trump for "Leadership" in regards North Korea (Clicky) has led President Trump to believe that he can threaten India.

Full Transcript and Video: Trump’s Speech on Afghanistan

[abhijitm]

There are means to control.

None assured, Sir. And certainly none in which we would be the only player in the game. Else we would have been controlling Pukistan, rendering all the other issues (Afghanistan, Iran, China) moot.

whats in life is assured? if we can influence bangladesh and afghanistan we can do it with balochistan too. now what if we fail? what if it turn rogue... is not the valid reason. Till yesterday maldives was in our camp even being a muslim nation. Today they have drifted away. Can someone assured that they will remain that way forever? no. thats not how geopolitical games are played.

[Bart S]

None assured, Sir. And certainly none in which we would be the only player in the game. Else we would have been controlling Pukistan, rendering all the other issues (Afghanistan, Iran, China) moot.

whats in life is assured? if we can influence bangladesh and afghanistan we can do it with balochistan too. now what if we fail? what if it turn rogue... is not the valid reason. Till yesterday maldives was in our camp even being a muslim nation. Today they have drifted away. Can someone assured that they will remain that way forever? no. thats not how geopolitical games are played.

+100

We are past masters at making excuses for inaction. What appears to be caution or perfectionism is just really an excuse for laziness and kicking the can down the road. Stuff like, lets wait 10 years till we re-arm, lets wait till we are 7T$ economy, lets wait for UN to approve it first, lets wait for ironclad guarantees etc. We are either in the game or we get screwed.

[g.sarkar]

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/21/politics/ ... index.html
Five key pieces of Trump's Afghanistan plan
Jeremy Herb
By Jeremy Herb, CNN
Updated 1:26 AM ET, Tue August 22, 2017
US President Donald Trump speaks during his address to the nation from Joint Base Myer-Henderson Hall in Arlington, Virginia, on August 21, 2017.
Trump said a rapid Afghan exit would leave 'vacuum' for terrorists. / AFP PHOTO / Nicholas Kamm
(CNN)President Donald Trump outlined his plan for the 16-year US war in Afghanistan Monday evening, vowing that the US would find victory while no longer "nation-building."
......
Trump also talked about how India, a nuclear rival of Pakistan, could contribute to the Afghan war effort. He noted the billions of dollars in trade between India and the US and said his administration wanted India to help more on Afghanistan, particularly with economic assistance and development.
...

He is asking for Indian help in economic assistance and development not military presence. In both areas India has helped Afghanistan more successfully than the US.
Gautam

[Manish_P]

whats in life is assured? if we can influence bangladesh and afghanistan we can do it with balochistan too. now what if we fail? what if it turn rogue... is not the valid reason. Till yesterday maldives was in our camp even being a muslim nation. Today they have drifted away. Can someone assured that they will remain that way forever? no. thats not how geopolitical games are played.

+100

We are past masters at making excuses for inaction. What appears to be caution or perfectionism is just really an excuse for laziness and kicking the can down the road. Stuff like, lets wait 10 years till we re-arm, lets wait till we are 7T$ economy, lets wait for UN to approve it first, lets wait for ironclad guarantees etc. We are either in the game or we get screwed.

You misunderstood me. I am not saying we be inactive. What i am saying is that we get these interested parties (who also stand to gain) make it really worth our while for us to be convinced in putting in our efforts. Else we will just be heavy lifters at best and canon fodder at worst.

[SSridhar]

We are past masters at making excuses for inaction. What appears to be caution or perfectionism is just really an excuse for laziness and kicking the can down the road. Stuff like, lets wait 10 years till we re-arm, lets wait till we are 7T$ economy, lets wait for UN to approve it first, lets wait for ironclad guarantees etc. We are either in the game or we get screwed.

Absolutely. We will wait forever with our excuses.

[abhijitm]

Should check the tone of left media in US and UK. It was okay when obama wanted more indian role in afghanistan. But because now trump is asking the same (or more) they are saying its a mistake because pakistan wil get upset. Its a true face of lefts in the west. Their trump hate is so much I will not be surprised if soon they call taliban a victim of trump.

[Bart S]

Should check the tone of left media in US and UK. It was okay when obama wanted more indian role in afghanistan. But because now trump is asking the same (or more) they are saying its a mistake because pakistan wil get upset. Its a true face of lefts in the west. Their trump hate is so much I will not be surprised if soon they call taliban a victim of trump.

That is true, they are totally blinded by their hatred of Trump that any overtures by the Trump admin to India might only beget harsh criticism of India in the American MSM. Rather like the hatred of Modi makes Cong and AAP types do stupid things and score own goals (not trying to equate Trump and Modiji here, just their opponents). It's a bit of a minefield for us to navigate, though we do have strong bi-partisan support among the political class at least.

[Kakkaji]

I think Trump hinted at 'hot pursuit' into Pakistan.

He asked for more troops from NATO allies, not from India

[abhijitm]

That is true, they are totally blinded by their hatred of Trump that any overtures by the Trump admin to India might only beget harsh criticism of India in the American MSM. Rather like the hatred of Modi makes Cong and AAP types do stupid things and score own goals (not trying to equate Trump and Modiji here, just their opponents). It's a bit of a minefield for us to navigate, though we do have strong bi-partisan support among the political class at least.

Yes. We need to be careful and have channels with left and right. But this exposes the perils of supporting US when risk of lives, money and strategic equations is too high. If they are not on same page and keep fighting and sabotaging each other then how India can raise its stake?

[Kakkaji]

'Indo-Pacific' is just the combined region of Indian and Pacific oceans. Not a specific reference to India.

[krishna_krishna]

I think Trump hinted at 'hot pursuit' into Pakistan.

He asked for more troops from NATO allies, not from India

We are past masters at making excuses for inaction. What appears to be caution or perfectionism is just really an excuse for laziness and kicking the can down the road. Stuff like, lets wait 10 years till we re-arm, lets wait till we are 7T$ economy, lets wait for UN to approve it first, lets wait for ironclad guarantees etc. We are either in the game or we get screwed.

Absolutely. We will wait forever with our excuses.

With all respect to Gurus, I do not think this announcement has any positives for India or approval to desh to achieve its stratetic objectives. He wants more economic assistance (in other words do more) since we made lot of money through their percieved lens we should fund the US exit , the one that suits their interests. That way they accomodate porkis concern with no indian danda on the ground only monies.

The highlights of the speech from what I understood are as below :

1) Strategic objectives
- Make sure they get honorable exit worthy of sacrifices made and win (dont know what that means) the war
-Make sure they get guarantees that A'stan will not be safe haven anymore in the future, so that their homeland is protected
-They will not indulge in nation building or replicas of democracy, however they want to make sure their strategic interests are taken care
- The region has highest no. of banned organizations by massa and there is where they perceived most threats to generate out of in near future to massa land

2) Tools (or Pillars he outlined would be used):
- Make sure US military have tools to make this happen and would not be micromanagement from DC (looks like last attack on their forces pissed someone up on not able to retaliate)
- He appreciated porkis sacrifices by their people and forces (they fought with us forces) but he also wants they to ditch policy of safe havens that target their forces and their interest (in my mind he is ok with them providing shelters to forces that target india)
- Porkis help (aid) would be conditional to the effort that they put in to help . If you don't help the objectives , no money honey
- India should fund whatever that strategy is ( That means exclusion of any part in strategic or military presence to pacify porkis)
- They will not indulge in nation building of A'stan (only things that will take care of their security). It is upto A'stan to do whatever they want as long as they do not harm the massa land
- Help build Porkis strategic partnership with India ( To me this was biggest riddle when i heard it, but seems another way for mediation on cashmere)
- He kept on emplasizing the word "South-asia" no. of times
- Also he fears that munna would be wiped of if there is n war

[UlanBatori]

India's interest? Start massive economic "assistance" (investment) to Afghanistan. TSP will ***HAVE*** to agree to let Indian trucks transit POK to A'stan. NO, no agreement from India that POK is Pakistan. If they don't agree, then ask DT and his Predators to help persuade them gently.

If (and when) that transit line is threatened, Indian forces will have to go in to secure that road/ rail line. It's pretty obvious, hain?

[abhushan]

Must Read
https://theintercept.com/2017/08/05/wha ... bvert-it/

[pankajs]

'Indo-Pacific' is just the combined region of Indian and Pacific oceans. Not a specific reference to India.

Totally. The reference is to the land mass in and between the two great water bodies.

[Kakkaji]

Folks:

Now that Trump has signed off on the strategy and presented it to the public, his domestic political troubles will have no bearing on it.

This plan will unfold over the next 6 months, and the key players executing it will be McMaster, Kelly, and Tillerson.

Watch for Jaishankar and Doval traveling to DC soon to coordinate.

[pankajs]

Seems someone at the top lost a son in Afghanistan and has another son going in. Perhaps it was Kelly