India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 23 Jan 2021 12:58

Mrs.G,Swaran Singh,Haksar,Babuji and co.handled Nixon,Kissinger,Mao, Yayha ,etc.with aplomb.Made them look like country bumpkins. Since WW2, the '71 war and creationof BDesh is unmatched.

I sincerely hope that Biden and co. do not go down the Obama/ Clinton route in Indo- US relations. Gen.Austinhas stepped off withrhe wrongfoot by his pro- Pak comments.

kit · Post by **kit** » 23 Jan 2021 20:25

https://www.news18.com/news/opinion/joe ... 26276.html

Significantly, Blinken characterised the bilateral ties as a “bipartisan success story of our successive administrations”. He was not bashful of giving credit to the Trump regime for taking the defence cooperation forward, “including its concept of Indo-Pacific” to ensure that no country in the region “including China could challenge (India’s) sovereignty”. He added that the US shared India’s concerns about “terrorism”.

Singing a similar tune, General Austin, who retired as the Commander of the US Central Command after a long and distinguished career, spoke about elevating India’s ‘Major Defense Partner’ status and enhancing the “strong defence cooperation” to ensure that the militaries “can collaborate to address shared interests”. Emphasising continuity in approach, he promised to “deepen and broaden our defence cooperation ... through the QUAD security dialogue and other regional multilateral engagements.”

Anyway , kamala = lotus not yet potus

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 23 Jan 2021 23:08

ramana wrote:.

This IMET program is the only tool in US toolbox with Pakistan military. This way they spot them young for later staging coups as needed.
Nothing to worry.

Exactly. It is Washington making a bid to manage Baki Armed Forces' equivalent of UPSC. Not good for India but not explicitly directed against us either.

Needs to be seen through a slightly wider prism. Until recently Trump had severely downgraded relations with the TSPA. As SOON as it became obvious that Biden would be sworn in, Bakis suddenly grew a pair & became openly defiant of Cheen on CPEC. https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Belt- ... frameworks

The reason is obvious: Cheen is fed up with the Bakis & not willing to indulge them anymore. Bakis want to show Biden raj that the bidding for Islamabad's services is open again. "Give us money & we'll ditch the ilon blother and come over to your side."

What Lloyd Austin's response indicates is: "we will consider it as long as you allow us to shape TSPA leadership cadre as we please, thru IMET and such means... that is our 'shared interest'. "

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 24 Jan 2021 00:34

TSP has continuously received DoD Foreign Military Financing (FMF) between $350-400 million/year from the US regardless of administration. It is only in FY 18, 20, and 21 where it has been reduced to zero. FY19 is an outlier due to Trump shutting down the government and accepting the end of BCA. The downward trend began in FY12 due to the implementation of the 2011 Budget Control Act (BCA) which put spending caps on DoD. With that gone and a missing pugnacious president, resumption of FMF to TSP is a real possibility with the resumption of IMET funds because it has in the very recent past and will be asked for again. The question is how much? IMET and FMF have gone together as far as TSP has been concerned.

FMF allows TSP to acquire spares and upgrades such as the AIM-120C-5 AAMRAMs and F-16 MLUs. None of this changes the strategic calculus, but does create the loss of life and property.

nandakumar · Post by **nandakumar** » 24 Jan 2021 09:25

https://indianewengland.com/2021/01/us- ... er-austin/
From the US Defence Secretary confirmation hearing. I think he wants to say things that Republican Senators in the panel would like to hear.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 24 Jan 2021 09:38

FWIW. Suhag Shukla of Hindu American Foundation weighs in on the question of whether Amit Jani & Sonal Shah are actually being "excluded from Biden administration for having BJP-RSS ties". This was a claim made without sources or substantiation in a pro-Congress Indian web portal, "The Tribune".

https://mobile.twitter.com/SuhagAShukla ... 84929?s=19

Hasn't been a week, but
@POTUS
has a diplomatic headache.

A #FakeNews story that 2 Hindu Americans holding senior roles in the Biden campaign are not being given jobs in the Administration because of ties to "RSS/BJP" is causing outrage. How did this happen? Let's unpack: 1/

First, the Indian American Muslim Council teamed w/ a few internet handles to write a hypocritical open letter demanding those 2 Hindus not be given prominent roles. Why hypocritical? No mention at all of a nominee with ties to the shadowy separatist Stand With Kashmir front. 2/

Not to mention that the claim is false & horribly mean-spirited. The 2 Hindu Americans being targeted have never had ties to Indian politics. The claim is that their fathers were friends with some Indian leaders--but the father of one of those targeted passed away years ago. 3/

Then, Pieter Friedrich, the gadfly "South Asia expert" funded by an IAMC co-founder, highlighted the IAMC letter in a Medium piece, implying that
@JoeBiden
had delivered a stinging rebuke to BJP/RSS by excluding anyone with ties to them. This was too tempting a story for some 4/

The
@thewire_in
&
@thetribunechd
ran this story with no sourcing or confirmation. The story quickly spread among Indian opposition party mouthpieces like
@NH_India.
the
@WhiteHouse
seems to have tried to quash the false story & legit journalists determined it was fake. 4/

But it was too late. The fake story made it into vernacular press--and more important into WhatsApp/Signal chat groups. Folks in India are incredulous.

And now the Biden team has a headache to deal with and will be forced to allay outrage among sections of India's government.5/

There will be many efforts to pressure the Biden Administration on India. The Indian govt. can deal w/ that. But all Americans must strongly oppose any targeting of Hindu & Indian Ams on charges of dual loyalty, amplified by anti-Hindu activists and peddled by fake news outlets.

Addendum: Have received many questions about the bonafides of those who signed the "open letter" that Friedrich and irresponsible sections of Indian media amplified. Several anti-Hindu hate groups among them. Here you go (jpg attached with details of signatories)

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 24 Jan 2021 09:45

Another Twitter user asked Shukla if she agrees that in fact the 2 Hindu Americans were in fact excluded by the Biden Administration for having BJP-RSS ties.

She replied:

Absolutely not.

1. Most positions in the new administration are still unfilled. 2. Not everyone that worked for the campaign is interested in an administration job. Some positions already lined up elsewhere.

Fake news went viral and caused a needless diplomatic tempest.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 24 Jan 2021 09:49

What is a problem of course is that pro-Paki "Kashmir activist" Fazili and Uzra Zeya of Khobragade-episode fame are confirmed appointees in the Biden administration. That cannot be denied & neither Indian diplomats nor Indian/Hindu Americans have been capable or willing to do anything about it.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 24 Jan 2021 10:49

Not at all. They will be eager to have KM compensate KP for their genocidal acts. Indians in the US should push for it. Dear aiyditaar, social media youtoob et al.

ragupta · Post by **ragupta** » 24 Jan 2021 21:07

Hindu phobia by Biden administration and its official must be exposed at every platform, create new platform to take on India and Hindu haters.

Kashi · Post by **Kashi** » 24 Jan 2021 21:37

ragupta wrote:Hindu phobia by Biden administration and its official must be exposed at every platform, create new platform to take on India and Hindu haters.

...and then we'll wake up from our dreams.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 25 Jan 2021 01:22

Rudradev wrote:Ok, that's it, folks. Kashmir is gone. No way we can hold on to it now that new TSPA leadership cadre is going to be trained with IMET funds, making them effectively invincible ghazis.
...
You have been warned!

This is not about losing Cashmere. How much of the funding would find its way to BIF forces? With about $10 million (which is 2.5% of the aid), they - the pakis - can cause billion-dollar damage to a city's economy. We have seen what is going on in Singhu and Sterlite, Wistron, and SII. Before that Shaeen Bagh. These can be handled no doubt. But resources which are needed elsewhere have to be diverted to control these people. It is the opportunity cost that is problematic.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 25 Jan 2021 01:30

Rudradev wrote:What is a problem of course is that pro-Paki "Kashmir activist" Fazili and Uzra Zeya of Khobragade-episode fame are confirmed appointees in the Biden administration. That cannot be denied & neither Indian diplomats nor Indian/Hindu Americans have been capable or willing to do anything about it.

RD they can do what they want to do. Jaishankar already told there is an India way.
When Gen Petraeus asked who does India chose to side with?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 25 Jan 2021 01:32

'Suhag Shukla of Hindu American Foundation weighs in on the question of whether Amit Jani & Sonal Shah are actually being "excluded from Biden administration for having BJP-RSS ties"."

During the campaign, she was quite pro-Biden and even here is soft-pedalling the matter of Hinduphobia.

What goes her father to bat for Biden Admin? Why cant she let them speak? Or was she asked in private to refute this?

Sadly such folks are the flag bearers of Hindus in the US.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 25 Jan 2021 03:16

Whether Amit Jani & Sonal Shah were not appointed to key positions or voluntarily stepped back is irrelevant. They are not in Chairman Xiden's cabinet. In fact, there are no high-ranking cabinet officials of Indian origin besides Neera Tanden (who is probably Hindu-phobic). Vivek Murthy was suppose to be Sec. of HHS, but instead Surgeon General again. Indra Nooyi was suppose to be Sec. of Commerce, but was not even considered.

The national security team of Blinken, Sullivan, Burns, and Haines are a combination of neutral, anti-India and Hindu-phobic. Gone are advocates like Kash Patel who had lots of influence on national security policy, and was going to be either DNI, DoD or CIA head in a 2nd Trump admin.

Punjabi · Post by **Punjabi** » 25 Jan 2021 04:09

Vayutuvan wrote:
Rudradev wrote:Ok, that's it, folks. Kashmir is gone. No way we can hold on to it now that new TSPA leadership cadre is going to be trained with IMET funds, making them effectively invincible ghazis.
...
You have been warned!
This is not about losing Cashmere. How much of the funding would find its way to BIF forces? With about $10 million (which is 2.5% of the aid), they - the pakis - can cause billion-dollar damage to a city's economy. We have seen what is going on in Singhu and Sterlite, Wistron, and SII. Before that Shaeen Bagh. These can be handled no doubt. But resources which are needed elsewhere have to be diverted to control these people. It is the opportunity cost that is problematic.

Please DO pardon my ignorance...what is BIF? the acronym mentioned above. Thanks.

Najunamar · Post by **Najunamar** » 25 Jan 2021 04:24

BIF - Break India Forces.
While I agree destruction requires less resources (2.5M to inflict $1B in damage seems very large leverage), it is also possible to achieve better control now than even 5-6 years back because we now have many more states ruled by BJP or friendly parties; better understanding of the BIF techniques; greater transparency etc.

disha · Post by **disha** » 25 Jan 2021 05:21

Bush Jr., The 2nd Bush admin was even afraid to sneeze Cashmere. And hence the US SD had to resort to obscure obama human rights discussions and since that did not pan out tried to do some climate change nonsense. Biden admin is on backfoot already right off the gate trying to balance perceptions.

The US admin is now reduced to histrionics like rNDTV's Ravish - "Kootch protest-protest ho Jaye (Let's have some protest-protest)". Of course joining in that will be the babooze at USCIRF who need to build up their resume's by going after a big bad Yindoo country and propagate the filth their evangelical masters are paying them to do.

Here we are still looking to the future with blinkered eyes and sun glasses from the past. Currently India is saving the world from the mess created by China while the developed nations (US, fUK & France) are racing to save their own populations. Imagine the entire UN Security council is useless currently.

Do not people think that will factor in India-US relations? The script was supposed to be US gently fading away from world stage and the peaceful rise of China which results in a calm duopoly coming together for everlasting world peace. That script has just gone :poof:

Now it is US chaotically ceding parts of the world stage to India. A gentle duopoly may still come together, but it will be a duopoly of the largest and the oldest democracy. If the members of the incoming administration does not understand that, they will be continually reminded. If they still do not understand, they will face increasing irrelevance.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 25 Jan 2021 10:14

najunamaR ji, $10 million not $2.5 million. 2.5% if 400 million. I bet they can bring in $25 million if necessary.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 25 Jan 2021 10:17

it could be Pax Americana in the west and pax sinica in the east. Africa is up for grabs. India will be under pax sinica, if you let Xiden and co. decide.

Punjabi · Post by **Punjabi** » 25 Jan 2021 10:29

Mort Walker wrote:Whether Amit Jani & Sonal Shah were not appointed to key positions or voluntarily stepped back is irrelevant. They are not in Chairman Xiden's cabinet. In fact, there are no high-ranking cabinet officials of Indian origin besides Neera Tanden (who is probably Hindu-phobic). Vivek Murthy was suppose to be Sec. of HHS, but instead Surgeon General again. Indra Nooyi was suppose to be Sec. of Commerce, but was not even considered.

The national security team of Blinken, Sullivan, Burns, and Haines are a combination of neutral, anti-India and Hindu-phobic. Gone are advocates like Kash Patel who had lots of influence on national security policy, and was going to be either DNI, DoD or CIA head in a 2nd Trump admin.

AFAIK, Neera Tandon is a Clintonite and allergic to accepting her own Hinduness! Other Desis in powerful position in federal Government or even at State level go out of their way not to be seen as pro-India. They avoid fellow desis like anything...

Rishi_Tri · Post by **Rishi_Tri** » 25 Jan 2021 11:50

disha wrote:Bush Jr., The 2nd Bush admin was even afraid to sneeze Cashmere. And hence the US SD had to resort to obscure obama human rights discussions and since that did not pan out tried to do some climate change nonsense. Biden admin is on backfoot already right off the gate trying to balance perceptions.

The US admin is now reduced to histrionics like rNDTV's Ravish - "Kootch protest-protest ho Jaye (Let's have some protest-protest)". Of course joining in that will be the babooze at USCIRF who need to build up their resume's by going after a big bad Yindoo country and propagate the filth their evangelical masters are paying them to do.

Here we are still looking to the future with blinkered eyes and sun glasses from the past. Currently India is saving the world from the mess created by China while the developed nations (US, fUK & France) are racing to save their own populations. Imagine the entire UN Security council is useless currently.

Do not people think that will factor in India-US relations? The script was supposed to be US gently fading away from world stage and the peaceful rise of China which results in a calm duopoly coming together for everlasting world peace. That script has just gone :poof:

Now it is US chaotically ceding parts of the world stage to India. A gentle duopoly may still come together, but it will be a duopoly of the largest and the oldest democracy. If the members of the incoming administration does not understand that, they will be continually reminded. If they still do not understand, they will face increasing irrelevance.

So true!! Every vaccine vial that leaves Indian shores for nations across the globe - Brazil (2 MN), Bangladesh (2 MN), Bhutan (150,000), Maldives (100,000), Nepal (One MN), Myanmar (1.5 MN), Mauritius (100,000), Seychelles (50,000) so far and Saudi Arabia, Morocco soon - is making the world realize (and we should remind them ten times about it) the strategic and geopolitical importance of India.

https://zeenews.india.com/india/india-s ... 37400.html

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 25 Jan 2021 13:23

Vayutuvan wrote:najunamaR ji, $10 million not $2.5 million. 2.5% if 400 million. I bet they can bring in $25 million if necessary.

FMF and IMET aren't cash handouts like civilian aid such as the study of transgenders in Pakiland (for that they need to simply pull up the TSPA RATS crore commander hijras for study). Both FMF and IMET historically came out of DoS budget as grants and generous financing to foreign governments. The Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) DSCA and Foreign Military Sales (FMS) managed both of these programs for facilitating the quick acquisition of US weapon systems.

In FY18 the Trump administration separated FMF out of DoS and moved it to DoD, but IMET remained funded by DoS. Remember the hue and cry in DC about gutting DoS? DoD didn't want their budgets impacted and looked to other funds within the agency to fund nearly $9 billion/annually for FMF. DoS and Pak pasand donkeys and elephants realized that TSP may not qualify for DoD FMF. If your car gets repossessed, chances are you're not going to get another car loan right away.

Neera Tanden at OMB is going to have her hands full. To get FMF started again for TSP, they're going to have reconcile it with FY22 NDAA to get TSP to qualify for DoD FMF or pull the whole program back into the general FY22 budget for DoS. Then there's the pandemic relief, vaccine production/distribution costs, ACA, SS, Medicare/Medicaid, and so on which have a higher priority. It explains why the donkeys are mad as hell at the orange man even after he's gone. Time is short because the FY22 budget and FY22 NDAA have to be released by April for reconciliation with congress even if the same party controls everything. I think we need to pay attention to what happens with DoS funding because there will be nothing initially that says $XXX hundred million for TSP.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 25 Jan 2021 16:25

Vayutuvan wrote:
Rudradev wrote:Ok, that's it, folks. Kashmir is gone. No way we can hold on to it now that new TSPA leadership cadre is going to be trained with IMET funds, making them effectively invincible ghazis.
...
You have been warned!
This is not about losing Cashmere. How much of the funding would find its way to BIF forces? With about $10 million (which is 2.5% of the aid), they - the pakis - can cause billion-dollar damage to a city's economy. We have seen what is going on in Singhu and Sterlite, Wistron, and SII. Before that Shaeen Bagh. These can be handled no doubt. But resources which are needed elsewhere have to be diverted to control these people. It is the opportunity cost that is problematic.

If the US pipeline opens up again, the first thing TSPAF will spend on is getting new F-16 upgrades, AESA radars and new AMRAAMs, EW on those Vipers.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 25 Jan 2021 16:46

Yup a particular reason why we must try and develop mass production of Inhouse missiles, so we are quantitively and qualitatively ahead. Something like WIng Cdr Abhinandan crossing the LOC to gets his kill when outnumbered by large no. of F-16's should not happen.

But we should not be outranged by Pakis, we need make sure fizzleya is outgunned.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 25 Jan 2021 22:50

Aditya_V wrote:Yup a particular reason why we must try and develop mass production of Inhouse missiles, so we are quantitively and qualitatively ahead. Something like WIng Cdr Abhinandan crossing the LOC to gets his kill when outnumbered by large no. of F-16's should not happen.

But we should not be outranged by Pakis, we need make sure fizzleya is outgunned.

For that some 200 Tejas Mk1 and 1A are needed ASAP. No more money on foreign weapon systems.

darshan · Post by **darshan** » 26 Jan 2021 00:01

Mort Walker wrote: For that some 200 Tejas Mk1 and 1A are needed ASAP. No more money on foreign weapon systems.

One may need to just go through that exercise notionally to see if everyone even knows how to process the request. For example, GE orders being allowed by such numbers.

KJo · Post by **KJo** » 26 Jan 2021 01:47

It's well and good to help friendly nations for goodwill and future trade and other things, but we should not become the daddy of the world like the US was for all these decades. What I mean is the Indian taxpayer must not be on the hook for the country paying out aid to countries around the world like how the US did. There is always a risk that some leader may think that this is his/her path to becoming a 'world statesman'.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 26 Jan 2021 06:51

Mort Walker wrote:I think we need to pay attention to what happens with DoS funding because there will be nothing initially that says $XXX hundred million for TSP.

CIA is under DoS. My understanding is that the CIA's funding, especially black ops funding, is not public. Neither Congress nor POTUS knows about the extent of the funding.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 26 Jan 2021 12:44

Vayutuvan wrote:
Mort Walker wrote:I think we need to pay attention to what happens with DoS funding because there will be nothing initially that says $XXX hundred million for TSP.
CIA is under DoS. My understanding is that the CIA's funding, especially black ops funding, is not public. Neither Congress nor POTUS knows about the extent of the funding.

It doesn't work that way. The DNI and select committees in the house and senate know the extent of funding for various programs. Each department or agency is funded, but have some programs that are managed by other departments and agencies via inter-agency agreements. In fact, the National Intelligence Program and Military Intelligence Program are funded separately. See the following: https://www.dni.gov/index.php/what-we-do/ic-budget

My point is in the OMB submission, if there is a big bump in DoS funding, then it isn't necessarily a good thing. However, before we go through and look at all of the numbers, there is a lot of information to sift through.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 26 Jan 2021 21:02

Vayutuvan wrote:
Rudradev wrote:Ok, that's it, folks. Kashmir is gone. No way we can hold on to it now that new TSPA leadership cadre is going to be trained with IMET funds, making them effectively invincible ghazis.
...
You have been warned!
This is not about losing Cashmere. How much of the funding would find its way to BIF forces? With about $10 million (which is 2.5% of the aid), they - the pakis - can cause billion-dollar damage to a city's economy. We have seen what is going on in Singhu and Sterlite, Wistron, and SII. Before that Shaeen Bagh. These can be handled no doubt. But resources which are needed elsewhere have to be diverted to control these people. It is the opportunity cost that is problematic.

You think the beggar Paki fauj would give up on its precious IMET funds from Lloyd Austin's Pentagon to sponsor "BIF" forces? No, they will fight over any additional on-the-books money like starving mongrels over a dropped kabab.

As you have recounted, the BIF forces have not lacked for funds to launch any number of projects, even during the Trump administration's tenure (when US aid to Pakistan was supposedly minimal). Their coffers are filled from many sources, including Chinese, Church, UK-based Islamist, & "discretionary" Culinary Institute funds.

Meanwhile Pakistan itself is broke. Once upon a time the Paki ISI used to sponsor Khalistani Sikh agents in the USA. Today the ISI begs Khalistani Sikhs, governments like Turkey & Qatar, as well as other international organizations (e.g. CAIR, ICNA) in the US for money to sponsor its BIF propaganda & disinformation campaigns!

So no, I don't believe 2.5% of IMET funds will go to "BIF"s. Down to the last dollar, any extra money from the US will be guzzled up in a hurry by the afsars (& their fauji commercial ventures) themselves.

I would also like to know where you are getting the figure that 2.5% of US military aid to Pakistan = $10 million. I assume you mean 2.5% of new aid over & above what the previous (Trump) Presidency was giving to Pakistan, right? Otherwise your contention that it will somehow add $10 million to the BIF organizations' present level of funding makes little sense in this context.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 27 Jan 2021 02:47

As said earlier, IMET and FMF are not cash handouts to TSP. They are grants and loan waivers for the quick purchase of US weapon systems. This is where a big portion of TSP aid has gone.

The Obama administration in the last 4 years of FY14-FY17, disbursed $388.5 million to DoS for TSP Narcotics and Law Enforcement. The Trump administration from FY18-FY21 disbursed $$88.9 million for the same DoS activity and $1.25 million for DoS TSP Export and Border Control. FY21 isn't over yet, but it is unlikely to change unless Blinken, Haines, Sullivan, Burns and Johnson all ask for more. It would only happen as a DoS general spending increase through budget reconciliation. Right now, Chairman Xiden has pandemic issues to deal with.

As it is, the first rule of TSP RAPES is to line their pockets, the second rule is destabilize India with a small percentage of US DoS funding. Clearly, the resumption of funding increases to DoS translates to increases in terrorist activities conducted by TSP.

darshan · Post by **darshan** » 27 Jan 2021 03:04

Is there any reason to believe that chinese won't bankroll pakis if US allows buying of spares? To US public, it would look like that pakis are contributing to US economy.

kit · Post by **kit** » 27 Jan 2021 03:20

darshan wrote:Is there any reason to believe that chinese won't bankroll pakis if US allows buying of spares? To US public, it would look like that pakis are contributing to US economy.

they never did bankroll., most of what they had given so far are loans as far as i know., also interesting as to see what would happen when they default on their loans

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 27 Jan 2021 03:29

The US is not going to give much aid to TSP in the conventional sense anymore. It will be FMF loan waivers to turn around and purchase weapon systems from LM and Raytheon. DoS funding of various programs that RAPES will take a cut of to fund terrorism is another issue.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 27 Jan 2021 04:02

As can be seen here, https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/pakaid.pdf IMET (which is about $5M per year) is a tiny component of the overall annual US aid packages to Pakistan.

IMET and FMF together fall under the heading of "Security-Related Aid". This in all accounts for about $8.3 B of the ~$34 B aid given by US to Pakistan in the period 2002-2020.

By contrast, "Economic-Related Aid" accounts for $11.3 B of the aid.

The largest share is Coalition Support Fund (CSF) reimbursements which account for $14.5 B.

Per the document:

CSF is Defense Department funding to reimburse foreign forces for logistical and operational support of U.S-led military operations; it is technically not foreign assistance.

The FY2015 NDAA authorized up to $1 billion in additional CSF to Pakistan, $300 million of which was subject to Haqqani Network-related certification requirements that cannot be waived by the Administration. The FY2016 NDAA authorized $900 million, with $350 million ineligible for waiver.

(In 2017, Trump took over from Obama)

The FY2017 NDAA again authorized $900 million, but with $400 million ineligible for waiver. The FY2018 NDAA authorized $700 million, with $350 million ineligible for waiver. The Administration did not issue certifications for FY2015-FY2018. (This is what strongly deflated aid to Pakistan from the US. Pakis did not meet the requirements for a waiver and Trump administration accordingly disbursed only the part of CSF that was eligible to be paid without certifying the Haqqani-related requirements for these financial years. It would have taken a very openly pro-Paki US administration to certify Pakistan's behaviour in these years.)

The NDAA for FY2019 revamped the CSF program, authorizing $350 million to support security enhancement activities along Pakistan’s western border, subject to certification requirements that have not been met to date. The Pentagon has requested $450 million for global CSF for FY2020.

So in all, things have been quite bipartisan w.r.t. aid to Pakistan. The Obama administration introduced (in 2015) the regulation that part of the CSF would be held back if Pakis didn't meet certain conditions, particularly regarding ISI support for the Haqqani network. The Trump administration for their part correctly withheld certification that Pakistan had met those conditions.

It would be very difficult for the Biden administration (or anyone in it) to provide certification that Pakistan has suddenly started meeting its commitments on Haqqani Network, and release CSF to Pakistan going forward-- even if they wanted to. Questions would definitely be asked in Congress for proof of the abrupt change in Pakistan's behaviour, and I hope the India lobby would be able to raise enough of an obstacle if anyone in the Biden White House pushed for such a thing.

The only two headings under which funds continue to be given to Pakistan without significant oversight are INCLE ("International Narcotics Control and Law Enforcement (includes border security)") as a Security-Related expense and ESDF ("Economic Support and Development Funds") as an Economic-Related expense. In 2020, $21 million were requisitioned under INCLE, and $48 million under ESDF. Both these could in theory be slush funds and diverted by Pakistan for terrorist activities against India. The same is true of the additional $25 million cleared by US Congress for "democracy" and "gender studies" in Pakistan last December.

But compared to the CSF all these are small fry. And IMET is virtually nothing-- it is a small deal-sweetener given in exchange for allowing the US to advance its chosen cadre among the ranks of the Jarnails. Indeed, Lloyd Austin's remark emphasizing IMET seems almost to be trolling the TSPA when seen in context.

Long story short, one should watch whether the Biden administration either releases CSF funds by providing (false) certification of Pakistan's good behaviour, or adds significantly more funding under the headings of ESDF/INCLE/"democracy and gender" or anything else which is not subject to Congressional oversight. Other than that it isn't easy for Biden (or any administration) to increase aid to Pakistan without openly declaring hostile intent against India.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 27 Jan 2021 05:00

Also-- much of this dhoti-shivering about US increasing aid to Pakistan is most likely moot.

Biden doesn't *need* Pakistan to eff with India.

Pakistanis are an inefficient and unreliable partner. They may hate India. But they are also thieves, backstabbers, cheats, and halfway in China's pocket. If you give them 100 dollars to destabilize India the Jarnails and RAPES will eat 99. And moreover they have acquired a worldwide reputation of being a terrorist-funding jihadi slimebucket nation which is not to be trusted. Their association would actually be a liability for any atrocity literature promoting "resistance to save democracy and pluralism against Fascist Modi" etc.

Meanwhile in India itself there are many, many entities to whom the US could directly supply money and get way more bang for their buck.

Why go to the middlemen's marketplace when you can go directly to the farmers?

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 27 Jan 2021 06:40

Rudradev wrote:starving mongrels over a dropped kabab.

You made my day, saar.

2.5% or $10 million - I pulled it out of my hat. That doesn't seem to be all that big an amount considering 50 paki fauz core kommandus are supposed to be $ billionaires.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 27 Jan 2021 09:11

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/wi ... est-177122

Will Joe Biden Fail the 'Pakistan Test'?
By Michael Rubin

On the first day of his administration, President Joe Biden signed executive orders to return the United States to the Paris Climate Accord and to rejoin the World Health Organization. Whereas President Donald Trump believed the key to achieving his “Make America Great Again” goals was to set America in opposition to international organizations, Biden seeks to embrace them. The reality, however, is that both Trump and Biden had points. Many international organizations are corrupt. The UN Human Rights Commission, for example, has become a parody of its mission as countries like Cuba, Venezuela, and China deign to pass judgment on democracies about human rights, even as they fill their prisons with political dissidents, starve their population, or commit genocide against a Muslim minority. The International Criminal Court’s refusal to investigate China’s atrocities against their Uighur minority undercuts that body’s moral authority. Nor can the World Health Organization ever regain its moral standing if it does not address the implications of its failures in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic.

For Biden, those issues might be past embarrassments that occurred on Donald Trump’s watch rather than his own. Within weeks, however, he will have to face a test of faith in multilateral organizations and structures when the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) meets to address Pakistan’s continued terror problem.

Founded in 1989, the FATF is the international community’s chief multilateral apparatus to combat money laundering and terror finance. It meets regularly to assess each country’s culpability and efforts to address outstanding problems.

Pakistan has long exasperated FATF technocrats. The country’s Inter-Services Intelligence agency works fist-in-glove with myriad terrorist groups. Rather than blacklist Pakistan, however, the FATF has repeatedly kept Pakistan on its gray list offering it just a little more time in the hope that Pakistani officials might both show they take countering terror finance seriously and that Pakistani civilian leader have the ability to rein in the country’s security apparatus. In July 2019, the Pakistani Senate passed two reforms demanded by the FATF, but Pakistani authorities then sought to utilize this symbolic action to shield themselves from demands for a more substantive crackdown on terror support. More recently, Pakistani authorities have sought to utilize their growing diplomatic embrace with China in order to protect themselves from FATF blacklisting. While Pakistani nationalists might prickle at Western criticism of Pakistan’s terror problem, they should be increasingly wary that Prime Minister Imran Khan finds it easier to sell out his country’s sovereignty to China than to make basic reforms demanded by the FATF to remain off the blacklist.

After getting the most recent FATF extension in October 2020, Pakistan again took symbolic action to address some concerns, while leaving others unaddressed. An anti-terrorism court sentenced Hafiz Saeed, one of those involved in the Mumbai attack, to ten years in prison for two terror-financing cases. A court also sentenced two close aides, Zafar Iqbal and Yahya Mujahid, to ten and a half years each and Saeed’s brother-in-law Abdul Rehman Makki to six months imprisonment.

As the FATF again prepares to meet in February 2021 to assess Pakistani progress, Khan’s government now goes down the rabbit hole of conspiracy. It has produced a dossier alleging that India is the true state-sponsor of terrorism and that most U.S.- and UN-designated terror groups operating inside Pakistan. Pakistan is not responsible for money laundering or terror finance, but rather it is a victim of a nefarious New Delhi plot. This is farcical on its face and an insult to the United States and two dozen other countries whose citizens injured or murdered in the 2008 Mumbai attacks. It is the equivalent of the 9/11 “truther” conspiracy theories, only with state sponsorship. It is also a sign of the disdain that Khan and the Inter-Service Intelligence have in the intelligence of Pakistani society that they believe such falsehoods would have resonance. Pakistani press might be constrained, but Pakistan is not North Korea; it is not possible to isolate the country from the outside world.

Pakistanis have suffered greatly at the hands of Islamist militants. This, however, is not a sign of external conspiracy as Islamabad now alleges, but rather evidence that the FATF cannot afford to give any more free passes. Indeed, without exception, countries often suffer blowback when they cultivate jihadist groups as tools against external enemies. Saudi Arabia spent decades financing radicalism only to find such terror utilized against the Kingdom. Late Syrian President Hafez al-Assad and his son and successor Bashar set the stage for the past decade’s bloody civil war when they cultivated and encouraged Sunni radical groups on the condition they operate externally only. Alas, terrorists often turn on allies of convenience whom, for reasons of religious exegesis, they despise. Turkey, too, suffered a spate of Islamic State bombings after its intelligence services helped facilitate the group’s activities against both Syria and Iraq. That Pakistanis suffer at the hands of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan and other groups is less a sign that these groups are the tip of an Indian or American conspiracy and more the natural result of the Pakistani government’s long indulgence of political Islamism at the expense of the fabric of Pakistan’s own society. The Pakistani military may have believed it could encourage radical Islamism to patch together divergent ethnic identities after the loss of Bangladesh, but it simply traded one problem for another.

The United States continues to consider Pakistan a “major non-NATO ally,” a status bestowed upon only seventeen countries that facilitates military trade and cooperation. In reality, however, Pakistan has acted as anything but. It may now be close to a decade since U.S. Navy SEALs killed Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden in a protected Pakistani compound, but Pakistani betrayal of its counterterror responsibilities have continued unabated. Pakistani glee at the forthcoming U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in the face of Taliban insurgency underscores how insincere Islamabad remains.

It is against this backdrop that Biden must now confront the Pakistan test. With China’s backing, Pakistan seeks to appease the FATF with the bare minimum, but FATF recommendations are not an à la carte menu from which to pick and choose. Pakistan’s promotion of a conspiracy theory blaming its terror problem on India beggars belief and shows the lack of seriousness with pervades Islamabad. Biden talks like an internationalist, but at stake is not only accountability for Pakistan’s terror complacency, but also the legitimacy of the FATF itself. Put another way, Biden may talk like an internationalist, but should Pakistan again avoid FATF blacklisting without actually addressing its core problems will determine whether the FATF can continue to be a credible body. China rescued Pakistan in October 2020, but Biden should not allow it to do so again. Should that happen, then Biden will signal that America’s re-embrace of multilateralism has less to do with enhancing international security and rule-of-law, and more to do with shirking responsibility and glossing over the decline of international security.

Michael Rubin is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and a frequent author for the National Interest.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 27 Jan 2021 10:52

Funding to BIF is less of an issue as opposed to long term FMF loan waivers to TSP. Between 2008-2011, TSP received some 500 AIM-120C-5 AMRAAMs and 200 AIM-9M-8/9 Sidewinders. The purchase was in FY08 during the Bush-II administration where TSP received $298 million FMF grant/waiver. Right now, TSP wants US air defense missiles and P-8s on a priority basis. As said before, none of this changes the strategic calculus, but makes it much harder for India and will cost the loss of life and property.

Just to make this clear, the four years of FY14-FY17 were Obama budget submissions. The four years of FY18-FY21 were Trump budget submissions. The actual disbursement of US civilian and military aid to TSP for FY21 are not available at this time as it is the current fiscal which ends 30 SEP 2021. FMF aid also has a training component to it. FMF to TSP has been bipartisan until Trump and will again become bipartisan with Xiden. The FY19 budget acceptance was a mess with Trump's 35 day US government shutdown.

FMF Disbursements to TSP between FY14-FY21 in millions of $$:
https://explorer.usaid.gov/cd/PAK?fisca ... bursements

FY14: 238
FY15: 265
FY16: 254
FY17: 255
FY18: 0
FY19: 368
FY20: 0
FY21: Presumably zero, but current fiscal