West Asia News and Discussions

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 07 Jan 2020 20:25

Uddu, that's exactly what I've been saying for aeons.Build up our military,plugging critical gaps as of yesterday and form our own coalition,club,whatever of like-minded nations on regional and global security. The US stopping the Iranian diplomat from attending a UN meeting is sheer thuggery and shows how morally bankrupt and impotent the UN is,nothing more than a tired aging whore getting rogered and shared by the P-5, by the US mostly ,while the rest of hhd members pay a price forbeingmute spectators and sometimes dragged into the chamber as the victim! Just ask Iraq,Libya,Syria for a start,the Balkan states next.

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 07 Jan 2020 20:25

UlanBatori wrote:
habal wrote:Just pointing out that a strategic infusion of money and arms can turn a generally bissful community into a extremely violent one. Witness what Khalistan did to Sikhs. Absolutely Deep State type enterprise.

People need to be aware so that one does not always follow the herd, or if one does, at least spare a glance around from time to time.

UBji, while the point you are making is right, but the details are wrong
1. sikhs always had martial traditions. Even today they carry kripan in flights. Imagine ISIS guys being allowed to carry
2. Also, what people do with arms and money depends upon book that people follow. while money is the universal corrupter. Arms bearing has different impacts: look what happens in afghanistan, ME or any malsi area where everything is a weapon to be used always including @icks...Ropers oscilate from one extreme to another...like WW1 and peace love by old generals and WW2 and subsequent gradual neutering of entire Europe (excluding russia). Also from a japanese perspective they are may be 1 decade (at worst) away from making entire the SE asia $hit bricks again.
Most importantly coming to majority Indians. I do think people will embrace guns for petty crime, but beyond a point the sanity shall prevail. Most states in north india had Hindu and peaceful groups of illegal arms in 90s..majority of real peaceful(read hindu) moved out of the business as the education and job opportunities got better for kids and people didnt want this sorta lifestyle. Most of boys wont even have used small pocket knives at their homes compared to the peaceful who after khatana ceremony or may be before introduce kids to behead animals on eid...

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 07 Jan 2020 20:33

What if there is a flare up in eyeran, i doubt that will happen inspite of gravest provocations; coz shia regime is not that stupid, but what if it happens. What if US and Iran have a 2003 style war and the regime goes down, in the intervening chaos, wouldnt it be possible to light fires in balochistan? esp with the chahbahar and zaranz highway and gateway to afghanistan.
May be i am having wet dreams, but collapse of this regime ends the US-Iran hostility and perhaps frees both US and Afghanistan from perpetual paki blackmailing. A presence across Iran kills all chinese dreams of OBOR to asia and boxes it in the region. I do remember Rudradev had an exactly opposite point to this, where he mentioned OBOR is western construct to let the pressure off the valve. But it wont be wrong to say that there has been a lot of change in US calculus and public behavior.
Would be very interesting to see how this crisis evolves in the second trump presidentship

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 07 Jan 2020 20:36

Rand Paul on Ayatollah Bolton
Suddenly I begin to see a viable elephant candidate other than the incumbent. He's wacko in his own way, of course.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 07 Jan 2020 20:43

AP and others: what strikes me as I look at images from Syria is that it *WAS** a country with infrastructure orders of magnitude ahead of desh. Even today the people have some sort of clothes, and they look expensive compared to what most desis can afford. The roads are wide and well-paved; highways look like 130kph (I am sure they are now potholed if not mined).

So this was clearly a nation that was productive, peaceful and had a very functioning business community with opportunities for jobs. The people must have had some sort of education o function in such an economy. But look at what has happened to them. Do we still maintain that desh is immune because TV works and there are jobs?

habal · Post by **habal** » 07 Jan 2020 20:45

Just before a favorite candidate is shortlisted for US presidential nomination, he/she has a mandatory meeting with kissinger and the very same character goes on to win the election.

Infact it is quite easy and predictable to know who will win the US presidential election. Just see whom kissinger selects to meet.

this meeting with kissinger or knights of malta (obama) is basically to get guarantees from them that he/she has to stick by their word and initiate the wars in the sectors that they have promised to during campaign.

Obama promised african wars and trump promised war on iran.

DharmaB · Post by **DharmaB** » 07 Jan 2020 20:55

Vikas wrote:Is the assassination of a General in Iraq such a important factor that it causes gravitational shifts in ME political landscape. ME is/was always rife with murders and conspiracy theories.
As far dreams of Persian empire or Iranian influenced region across erstwhile Mesopotamia, This can only be a dream but not happening in reality atleast in next few decades. By that time India and China would have risen to the top of the power pyramid.

For India, with the emergence of alternate Fuel and EV, the dependence on ME will reduce with time and then it will purely be a strategic play. Right now we want to be in the good books of everyone knowing that we have very few real friends out there but with Oil no longer a strategic weapon in near future and a more assertive Bharat, We will be able to pick and choose sides based upon their behavior. Till then we just hope that ME doesn't go up in smoke like 1990-91.

Quite rightly said IMO Vikas ji. The govt & populace should focus on boosting two industries. One is EV and other Defense. We have to overcome this dependency on Oil and critical weapons imports. This helps economy also in a big way. Somehow if we can sail through this difficult decade safely and achieve goals by 2030, and economy crosses 10T mark, from there on the journey of India could be smooth and more manageable in relative terms, like for US, China.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 07 Jan 2020 20:57

Stampede at Suleimani burial kills at least 40
Funeral delayed

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 07 Jan 2020 22:10

UB, Dont mind lekin you are muddying the waters bring in India.

Folks why does every discussion end up dragging India into the thread?

Please don't nukkadify every thread. We have structured topics so we can have a civil conversation and not a stream of consciousness prophecy type!
And despite many years on forum basic concepts of core-periphery, global/strategic- local/tactical all have not been absorbed.

Humans are learning mechanisms and if we don't learn we get passed over by evolution in long term and by history in short term.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 07 Jan 2020 22:26

UlanBatori wrote:AP and others: what strikes me as I look at images from Syria is that it *WAS** a country with infrastructure orders of magnitude ahead of desh. Even today the people have some sort of clothes, and they look expensive compared to what most desis can afford. The roads are wide and well-paved; highways look like 130kph (I am sure they are now potholed if not mined).

So this was clearly a nation that was productive, peaceful and had a very functioning business community with opportunities for jobs. The people must have had some sort of education o function in such an economy. But look at what has happened to them. Do we still maintain that desh is immune because TV works and there are jobs?

In West Asia two wars are seminal. The 1967 Arab-Israel and 1973 Yom Kippur War. In both these wars Israel was fighting with its back to the wall but did prevail. Third time may not be lucky.
Common factor in both wars is Sunni Nationalist Arabs ganging up: Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Iraq.
In Muslim world Egypt, Syria, Iran and even Afghanistan were modernized to an large extent at that time.

Now in comes Wahabi KSA and releases the oil price rise demon. With the wealth they start spreading fundamentalism by way of building mosques. The Iranian Shias feel threatened and start introspecting.
I was reading the coup against Mossadegh. The second most likely to become leader was an Ayatollah. So religion in politics was always lurking in Iran.

(If US and idiot UK had done decision tree analysis they never would have overthrown Mossadegh and still be justifying it. The hidden player is UK that egged the US to coup to regain Anglo-Iran Oil aka BP. but after the coup Eisenhower had to make US companies become part owners of Anglo-Iranian for optics and there was an oil glut and could not sell the oil any how!!!)

Then six years after Yom Kippur, the Iranian Islamic Revolution is successfully launched.

Iraq/Saddam decides to take advantage of the chaos and starts the long drawn Iran-Iraq war.
The threat to Israel is over.
Iraq wins the war and demand reparations from Kuwait for the war.
and then invades on non-payment.
This leads to Desert Storm and so on.

DharmaB · Post by **DharmaB** » 07 Jan 2020 22:29

Here is an interesting pov on recent happenings.
https://benjaminfulford.net/

habal · Post by **habal** » 07 Jan 2020 23:54

Trump has formally handed over mid-east to Putin. Only challenger was Soleimani who restricted russian space with shii politics.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Jan 2020 00:01

Actually DT has ensured that Iraq is the only battle zone for the jihadis.
Putin in Syria is ensuring the same.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 08 Jan 2020 00:02

ramana wrote:UB, Dont mind lekin you are muddying the waters bring in India.
Folks why does every discussion end up dragging India into the thread?
Please don't nukkadify every thread. We have structured topics so we can have a civil conversation and not a stream of consciousness prophecy type!
And despite many years on forum basic concepts of core-periphery, global/strategic- local/tactical all have not been absorbed.
Humans are learning mechanisms and if we don't learn we get passed over by evolution in long term and by history in short term.

ramana: I am more than a bit confused.

Pls see a few posts above where you are chastising the Class for not analyzing implications for India in these events. As in, why discuss West Asia here unless the lessons are relevant to India. Yes, the lessons are relevant, and not as in "Let's send Indian troops to Syria! What fancy equipment should we show off?" The lessons can be a bit deeper. How does this become "muddying the waters" I see clear and present danger for India in what we are seeing 1000 miles from the coast.

The B-52 squadrons have already arrived in Guam on the way to Diego Garcia. Today we may be literally minutes away from a massive war in Iran and the Persian Gulf. One more significant attack on US interests and the POTUS will have tweeted himself into a corner.

Is this not relevant to India? Sudden stoppage of the oil imports that are still 80% of India's energy supply. Then again the refugee swarms from Iran may very well be coming to India since they are not very welcome in the Sunni belt - or Pakistan - or North Africa. As happened when the Zoroastrians came to Gujarat. What would be the impact on India of 10 million destitute Iranians with a fair number of ISIS terrorists sprinkled among them? Daily boats washing up on the coast with dying children.

Back in January 2004 if I had told you that 10 million West Asian refugees would be swarming all over Germany and Scandinavia inside 15 years and Sweden and Norway heading for Shariah law, what would your reaction have been? The lack of imagination here is rather disturbing.

India may become Oirope-ized.

CalvinH · Post by **CalvinH** » 08 Jan 2020 00:29

Refugees from Iran landing in India is too far fetched. India is a poor country and cant be compared to Europe. Plus the refugees didnt land up in Europe directly. They landed in Turkey from where they were provided a passage to Europe. Europe has a policy for absorbing refugees as a union.

Plus the gulf will be closed due to war so people cant escape by sea.

Apart from oil price spike we are not going to be impacted. But it will be for a short term because any war wont last beyond few weeks and only those nations who import from Iran will be impacted on longer term basis.

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 08 Jan 2020 00:38

CalvinH wrote:Refugees from Iran landing in India is too far fetched. India is a poor country and cant be compared to Europe. Plus the refugees didnt land up in Europe directly. They landed in Turkey from where they were provided a passage to Europe. Europe has a policy for absorbing refugees as a union.

Plus the gulf will be closed due to war so people cant escape by sea.

Apart from oil price spike we are not going to be impacted. But it will be for a short term because any war wont last beyond few weeks and only those nations who import from Iran will be impacted on longer term basis.

Not sure if this aspect should be discussed in light of ramanajis above post..
not sure if any navy would like to arrest 1000s of refugees coming over that too to India. Refugees may take a stop at Gwadar/Karachi, if required, I am sure pakis would not mind earning some free ka goodwill while sending infiltrators to India...

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 08 Jan 2020 00:41

Meet Jarnails Vodkov and Smirnoff up close. Small guys, great brains and toughness!

Russian President Vladimir Putin has made a surprise visit to Syria, holding talks with his counterpart, Bashar Assad, at the Russian military command center. Putin “rode through the streets of Damascus” on his way to the command center, where he headed after landing at the city’s airport, Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said. During their meeting, Putin told Assad that “the signs of peaceful life are visible to the naked eye on the streets of Damascus,” Peskov said.
He also pointed out that it can now safely be said that “a huge distance has been passed on the way to restoring Syria’s statehood and territorial integrity.”

Wish I could peek over and see that map that is spread out on the table.

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 08 Jan 2020 00:54

Can US forces in NE Syria (ie: the oil fields) remain there if the US pulls out of Iraq? Are those US forces supplied via Turkey or only via Iraq?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Jan 2020 01:22

OK UB and ArjunPandit list for us 10 impacts to India of the Iran-US fight and consequences.
Two lines no need for reams.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 08 Jan 2020 01:23

Refugees from Iran landing in India is too far fetched. India is a poor country and cant be compared to Europe.

We already have refugees from Iran ie Parsi community which is actually a model minority unlike others or all the others.

nam · Post by **nam** » 08 Jan 2020 01:27

So nothing so far? Not even one missile fired, no tomahawk shots... nothing... zilc...

Only days of hot air, over a chap who was considered next only to Ferdinand, when it comes to starting a world war..

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 08 Jan 2020 01:30

We have refugees from Syria - Syrian Catholic Church in Malloostan is one of the richest and most powerful bijnej communities in the State. Plus the Jewish community.
My fear from the big-mouthings of Eyeranians is that someone will try for the Big Prize: sink a carrier in the Strait of Hormuz. 3000 to 5000 ppl on board + 75 planes + a good-sized nuclear reactor and probably several nuclear weapons. None of this piddly fire-a-katyusha-into-a-compound kid stuff.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Jan 2020 01:39

UlanBatori wrote:Stampede at Suleimani burial kills at least 40
Funeral delayed

By mismanagement, the Ayatollahs killed more people than those killed in the air strike.

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 08 Jan 2020 02:18

ramana wrote:
By mismanagement, the Ayatollahs killed more people than those killed in the air strike.

Seems to be a tradition for Iranians. Didn't Khomeini's funeral kill a whole lot of people? Also, the coffin was dropped and it was utter chaos, IIRC.

Not exactly Kumbha-mela or Godavari Pushkaram organizing level of administration and management skills. But I am counting on India and Indians to remain unaware of strengths of this kind, and working out how to build on top of them.

I think India doesn't have a lot of room for initiative and maneuvering post-Suleimani. Oil price rise and impact on economy is almost certain. As to the other stuff, a lot will depend on the US. If they decide to go further down the road of sanctions, India could lose all the investment in Chabahar and Afghanistan. I don't see any incentive recognizable by US to let India keep its role in Iran & Afghanistan.

China will get stronger due to deepened ties with Iran. That means India's position will be implicitly weaker.

Longer-term, there may be a benefit: a nationalistic administration may (at long last) be shaken into taking military and economic self-reliance seriously, as well as the importance of bringing up educational and skill standards which are quite abysmal.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Jan 2020 02:29

I like to respond but you should structure your thoughts.
Did India have a lot of room to maneuver with Solemaini?
Oil prices shot up Friday and came back down when the speculators realized it was not 1973 or the later crisis years.

Actually the ball is in Iran court.

You would see if you were not in maya of underdog portrayal by media.
US has okayed Chahbahar port.
US has no sanctions for S400.
Putin just incvited India to the Eurasia economic Summit.
Iran needs Chahbhar port as an outlet.

I don't understand the rhona/dhona for a Islamist SS organization (IRGC reports to the Ayatollahs) leader getting killed.
Whats wrong folks? Would we cry if Himmler got killed?
I said yesterday MBS is the biggest winner: respite in Yemen, GCC and less militant Shia outfits.
And India is the second biggest winner: I will give you home work.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Jan 2020 02:35

BTW even US folks are confused.
One Caucasian started nonsense.

I said did you read his profile.
He was among the US Embassy stormers in 1979.
He supported Shiite militias with IED technology of shaped charges.
Many soldiers were killed and suffered PTSD.

And recently was behind the Embassy attack in Baghdad.

Lohit · Post by **Lohit** » 08 Jan 2020 03:09

My take on likely Iranian retaliation scenarios in increasing order of likelihood,

1. An 80s style tanker war seems unlikely since the biggest impact of any such action in the straits of Hormuz would be on China. Cant imagine Iran doing anything to antagonize China, what with the very few meanigful allies it anyway has. So beyond minor harrassment of a ship or two, doesn't seem to be the option that would create the "severe revenge" being promised to Iranian masses

2. Direct action such as missile strikes on US bases, might be the next option. However with Trump playing his "madman" strategy of 52 targets, cant see Iran having the balls to play a game of slap with Trump. Also if Iran fires missiles, Trump cant be held back by dems or others from retaliating as hard as he likes. And boy will he go hard if this option comes into play, something that the Iranian leadership know and fear.

3. Sprinting to a nuke and maybe calling it the Suleimani Keeda might be a good option as well as a great tribute to the late general

. For one it really fulfills the ayotallah's long cherished dream and also can thrill the masses that they too now have the bomb. Apart from Israel, other powers may also not be extremely interested in attacking Iran head on so this might be a reasonably good face saving option, although it lacks the raw visuals of an attack.

4. The last and most probable option as I see it would be repeating a 1983 Beirut bombing like incident. It gives Iranians plausible deniability so that even with all of Trumps finger wagging, in the absence of concrete proof, hard retaliation will be very tough for Trump. Especially with all the rona dhona the global left and Dems might raise to hold him back citing absence of concrete proof. This would also provide great visuals from an Iranian perspective of coffins being flashed on screens 24x7 by CNN and other lib MSM. However even this option would not be entirely risk free as Trump might still bite the bullet and strike back hard, to not "look" weak to his constituencies. Also, we've seen how Trump handled the trade war head on and the fact that he is not cowed even with an impeachment, and hence there is no guarantee that Iran won't face immediate retaliation. Although I can see Pelosi, Corbyn and Mahatir filing a case of war crimes on a sitting president at the ICJ if this happens

So my money would be ultimately be on massive truck bomb (or maybe aerial/marine drone bomb) terrorist attack(s), in Iraq or even Afghanistan/Kuwait/KSA, in the weeks to come. Followed by, if absolutely required, Hezbollah or Hamas taking a "fall" for the "hit" to provide Iran an alibi, even as Iran all but acknowledges it and saves face by extracting "severe revenge".

How Trump chacha reacts will of course decide the course of history but here again my money is on no direct action against Iran by Trump but a bombing campaign on some Iranian proxy.

kit · Post by **kit** » 08 Jan 2020 03:10

habal wrote:ramana,

Indian perspective in all this is, first destabilize iran, second isis wahabism unchecked spreads into caucusus, spreads into russia, and then onto north west china and finally India. So basically asian challenge to european imperialism ends with isis wahabism destabilizing asia.

There are extra regional actors who have more than a passing interest in keeping two emerging powers in check , China and India with both of them having significant muslim populations. .. the old Anglo Saxon guard working overtime with its munna ISIS ?

V_Raman · Post by **V_Raman** » 08 Jan 2020 04:35

I think we are misunderstanding India and Islam. India is already a Muslim country! All this Wahabhism threat to other regions does not apply here. We should look at India from the perspective of an Islamic country - primarily sunni, see how this is being leveraged, and analyze the ME situation. India is the only modern state that can naturally provide security to sunni ME.

hgupta · Post by **hgupta** » 08 Jan 2020 05:20

WRT to Iranian options of retaliation, it is pretty much limited. If you want to be chanakyian in nature, the best thing is to wait patiently for the right time to strike. In the meantime, I would unilaterally withdraw from any nuclear treaty as Iran has already done and declare that Iran will pursue a nuclear weapon program to protect itself against US. Iran cannot win any military match against US. US is too well equipped, too prepared, and too well trained. Iran will lose a lot. Iran has to develop nukes in order to deter US and Israel. Whether they can do it or not is the billion dollar question. So it remains to be seen whether the Iranian leaders are clear-headed enough to see that the best strategy is to wait and let events develop in Iraq to the point where US has no choice but to leave Iraq. Only then Iran can pursue some options that would not invite a massive US retaliation.

But if they want to be stupid, they can launch a suicide attack against a US military base like suicide bombers but it will only be negligible effect. They will not be able to take out a high profile US target. US electronic surveillance is too advanced in that region for Iranian agents to exploit any weakness and launch an attack surreptitiously. And they will invite massive US military retaliation. They will lose a lot of assets. Israel can only hope that Iranian leaders would be stupid enough to do that. And most likely they will attempt to goad Iranian leaders down that path. They would love nothing less than the US going in and bombing the crap out of Iranian facilities and let the US take the blame and casualties. Ditto for Saudis. They also would love the US going in too. So the Israelis and Saudis are hoping and praying to their gods that Iranian mullahs would live up to their reputation and be stupid.

Trump pretty much has declared that he will go to a shooting war with Iran where he can carpet bomb Iranian targets to smithereens through standoff capability. Iran can only withstand the brunt and launch pretty much futile attacks. US won't sent in ground troops but will bomb the heck out of Iran.

As for the Indian point of view, the best thing India can do is simply stay out of the conflict. Just watch from the sidelines and continue to protect its assets in the region. Play the diplomatic card and smile at everyone and drink tea and wax about peace in the region. India's options are quite limited because due to the shortsightedness of MoD and Finance Ministry, India's offensive capabilities beyond the South Asia region remains very very limited. India may have powerful weapons but its reach is very very short. The only thing that India can do is prepare for the final outcome of any fight between US and Iran. India should not join US in any fight against Iran. Just remain noncommital and do not allow its bases or land for any offensive launches against Iran.

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 08 Jan 2020 05:24

ramana wrote:OK UB and ArjunPandit list for us 10 impacts to India of the Iran-US fight and consequences.
Two lines no need for reams.

I will bite the bullet, Net net I see this development positive
Case I: Iran does not do anything paki to get 72 and embrace eventual 'freedom' and democracy;
1. Status quo continues, India goes ahead with Chabahar and highway, continues to ship wheat to afghanistan
2. Worst case acts as a conduit to NATO supplies.. US will not completely change existing supply routes as Pakees need to be kept well behaved. India
3. In all the above cases India needles pakistan on our western side, scaring them on their eastern side. Distracts and uses that to to free up POK in all the scrambling of middle east.

Case II: Iran does paki to get 72 and embrace eventual 'freedom' and ;
1. WIll use the Iraqi template, War, followed by Civil war, followed by rise of terrorism (may not be that applicable in post trump era, but still doing it for possibilities).
2. Refugees flock to mostly Europe (again through Turkey) and some to India. Note that most of Iran is populated on its western border
[img]i.pinimg.com/474x/4a/9d/4a9d99cb4bnf064211ebffb9dae05.jpg[/img]. Malsis have preferences for their book brothers too. Regarding those coming to India that time paki borders were open too. This time paki borders are completely sealed and also the good refugees have either been converted or killed during in the regime era.
3. The main thing is the biggest stumbling block for freedom of Balochistan, which is the Sistan balochistan goes away. In fact, if I were to plan it, i will time the POK first to weaken pakis. Followed by embolden loosen BRA (baloch repub army guys) and let pakis unleash the heir of tikka khan and pervez and then india solves the paki problem.

The end of pakhanistan will happen in at least two phases.

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 08 Jan 2020 05:36

From twitter

BREAKING: Two US bases have been targeted
BREAKING: Iranian media airs footage of missile attack on US base
BREAKING: Iraqi commander confirms US base has been struck by rockets
BREAKING: Iran's Revolutionary Guards say they have launched dozens of missiles at US base in Iraq
BREAKING: Iran believed to have launched short-range ballistic missiles at US base
BREAKING: US confirms that its troops are under attack by Iran
BREAKING: Iranian media says retaliation has begun
BREAKING: Nine rockets hit Al Asad Airbase, which hosts American forces in western Iraq

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Jan 2020 05:47

Looks like Iran chose to become shaeed.

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 08 Jan 2020 06:01

ramana wrote:Looks like Iran chose to become shaeed.

i have been a teetotaler for entire life except finger licks from the offerings to kuldevta bhairav ji..
i pledged that I will drink scotch on the demise of pakis when it happens around 2022 i puke ...i will raise a toast for you guys if i am not with some of you..

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 08 Jan 2020 06:02

BREAKING: Iran says it is conducting a second round of attacks on US base

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 08 Jan 2020 06:11

If these reports are true ( multiple waves of missiles) then you can expect aircraft taking off from US bases in the region to sanitize potential TBM launch sites and infra inside Iran. There is no way to tell how many waves there could potentially be getting on an offensive is probably the only logical answer.

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 08 Jan 2020 06:12

Right now Trump/US' credibility is online. So we are most likely see at least aerial attack from US.
*If* US-Iran war escalates, there are 3 important issues that will impact India.
1) Large number of Indians working in Middle East. We need to take care of their safety (Econ-impact)
2) Oil prices will spike & impact us negatively(econ-impact)
3) If US takes help from pak to attack Iran, we can be dead certain that pak will ask for its pound of flesh(military equipment + baksheesh money) which US will pay. This will have a negative impact on us (strategic).

--Vamsee

khatvaanga · Post by **khatvaanga** » 08 Jan 2020 06:17

all valid points. Especially oil prices since each dollar increase in crude oil will cost us about $1 billion in forex.

US is more likely to take help of israel than pak if it is hitting iran. if israel helps US then pak's usefulness may be a bit less. If US uses pak's help then we should escalate on our end in PoL.

all kinds of permutations and combinations but no one knows how djt will react.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Jan 2020 06:18

https://twitter.com/Souria4Syrians/stat ... 24928?s=20

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Jan 2020 06:19

brar_w Per Twitter reports US already in air.