West Asia News and Discussions

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 08 Jan 2020 11:36

ArjunPandit wrote:^^if there were no amerikhan causualties, is it possible for iranians to go pakis claiming we did it just to show we could?

Yes, I guess that's the point. There was no way the regime could no nothing, yet any serious strike would have brought about massive retaliation. They can spin this attack as `we hit their bases'. I think things will cool off till the Iranians plan real retaliation - which, if I were Iranian, would be close to the Nov elections.

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 08 Jan 2020 11:52

I don't think there will be a de-escalation, at most a pause before we see more fire works: -
1. Iran's nuclear program is back up and running - US/Isreal/Saudis can't stop at this.
2. Killing Sulemani can't be the end game of the US deep state that is pushing for a conflict with Iran
3. At the end of the day, Orange is the commander in chief and all bets are off.

williams · Post by **williams** » 08 Jan 2020 11:55

habal wrote:
williams wrote:You don't hit a superpower and expect them to be quite. Uncle will predictably respond in force it is as simple as that.
superpower lost syrian war. Superpower decided to battle by proxies but resupplied isis and moderate rebels on a fairly regular basis. If your premise then is that superpower will use nukes, then there are others with nukes too. No point in being a superpower if it is surrounded by radiation all across.

So net net it is not that simple.

But again there will be some USA response since they have their H&D to defend in front of it's own population and immigrants. But then what the response to that will be is not in US control. What if China or North Korea decide to strike at USA through some Iranian proxies then hey lo behold Trump is on twitter and at war again.

What if China has shipped over it's Long March missile to Iran and it lands up in US. Will Trump go to war with both China & Iran at same time ?

I am not talking about losing or winning some proxy war. I am talking about US politico-military psyche. If you publicly strike them, they will respond. Iran does not have nukes and US has both the military and economic capacity to live with the escalation.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 08 Jan 2020 11:57

I don't see the situation de-escalating in short term. It is Egotist v/s Crazy.
Everyone in ME is floating in a Oil pool smoking cigarettes and lighting matches.

nam · Post by **nam** » 08 Jan 2020 12:01

So now ww3 is been fought in Iraq?

Like how everyone was fighting isis by bombing Syrians..

I take us will retaliate by bombing some random guy in Iraq?

habal · Post by **habal** » 08 Jan 2020 12:02

williams wrote: I am not talking about losing or winning some proxy war. I am talking about US politico-military psyche. If you publicly strike them, they will respond. Iran does not have nukes and US has both the military and economic capacity to live with the escalation.

they will respond whether they are provoked or not provoked. That is the way it goes. If Iran does not provoke mighty USA then USA can manage a provocation without Iranian help. It is called false flag. Trump is fixated on Iran since his nomination days, it seems as if the main task given to Trump is Iran and he will attack Iran whether it attacks or not. Trump is a public face of a much deeper level undertaking to cripple Iran.

While they attack Iran almost all the fallout including oil price hikes and civilian flight cancellations and uncertainties will be born by the common man. That is the way it rolls. So the joke is on us, natives of the region and neighbours of Iran. Makes no sense to go rah rah USA or cheer any side in this situation atleast for me.

The way you make it seem that USA can bear with the cost of escalation is something I would like to challenge here. The US finds itself thrive and maintain an unlimited budget on back of the petrodollars. ie you buy oil from gulf but pay back in dollars. So US can run an unlimited account through third party demand for dollars. Now what happens to the petrodollar economy if Iran lights a match prematurely and destroys most major oil wells and oil infrastructure in mideast and oil production grinds to a halt. What happens if the third party moves away from the US dollar as being too volatile to a safer Euro or China currency. Can the USA take a signicant hit to its lifestyle, and become poorer because the deep state has some agenda in Iran.

mahadevbhu · Post by **mahadevbhu** » 08 Jan 2020 13:08

Frankly I like the balls that Iran seems to have. It's instructional for the Indian polity. It's one thing to take on Pakistan and quite frankly another altogether to take on the giant Satan USA.

habal · Post by **habal** » 08 Jan 2020 13:10

White House accused of cover-up after Saudi crown prince's brother reveals he had Oval Office meeting with Donald Trump and Jared Kushner in wake of death of Qassem Soleimani

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ssion=true

habal · Post by **habal** » 08 Jan 2020 13:14

Y.N.M.S
@ynms79797979
·
5h
Al-Mayadeen correspondent in Baghdad : largest and most expensive US air radar in region stationed in Ain Assad airbase, yet failed to stop Iranian missile strike.

Iraq & Middle East Updates
@IraqLiveUpdate
·
7h
The timing of Iran response today was exactly the same time of US bombing and killing of #QasemSoleimani on Friday

anmol · Post by **anmol** » 08 Jan 2020 14:59

Jordanian news paper: Iranians accidentally shot down the Ukrainian plane.

nam · Post by **nam** » 08 Jan 2020 15:07

So here is a reminder for anyone who thinks China will destroy our airbases and nodes, because it has lots of Ballistic Missiles.

BM are glorified 250 or 1 tonne bombs. Their destruction is no different than been dropped by a jet.

mahadevbhu · Post by **mahadevbhu** » 08 Jan 2020 15:23

anmol wrote:Jordanian news paper: Iranians accidentally shot down the Ukrainian plane.

Not an accident. It had a lot of Canadians

Lohit · Post by **Lohit** » 08 Jan 2020 15:25

Not an accident. It had a lot of Canadians[/quote]

Apparently most of these were Canadians of Iranian descent.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 08 Jan 2020 15:45

I think thats the story which is going to be sold to the Iranian domestic Audience.

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 08 Jan 2020 16:27

Lohit wrote:Apparently most of these were Canadians of Iranian descent.

Aditya_V wrote:I think thats the story which is going to be sold to the Iranian domestic Audience.

If the maximum casualty is amongst Iranians or people of Iranian descent then Iran has scored an own goal. And yes, it is a bit surprising to find 80+ Canadians in Iran; a country which is not known for its tourist potential etc. And if Iran goes to town saying that it downed a civilian air craft to prove its point, the US perhaps can release the passenger manifest of the unfortunate aircraft (and prove that it was Iranians again who took the hit).

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 08 Jan 2020 16:38

I was talking about 89 Americans killed in Iranian Ballistic Missile attack not Plane crash. I think the Iranians missed deliberately and will sell 80 Americans killed for Domestic H&D.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 08 Jan 2020 17:48

Interesting for the war jocks here: there is a video of a mock nuclear strike flight test using an F-16.

Article is by Scott Ritter. Speculates on Iranian response options and US response options etc etc. Some of it has already proven to be pakistan because the Iranians did choose to hit low-value targets inside Iraq.
Very interesting history of Scott Ritter. I believe he was a US Marine, and deputed to the UN Chemical Weapons Inspectors team. Went to Iraq in 1990s and in 2002/2003. On the latter he basically yelled that there was no Dubya-Em-Dee. So he is well aware of the scams pulled to "justify" the 2003 invasion of Iraq. More recently he has been active with the investigations of the Syria "Chemical Attacks" and seems well into the exposure of the Douma scam. So at this point (ans since 2002) he is no friend of the Deep State.
The DS got to him. In 2002 he was set up with some sort of sex phone call - arrested and convicted. Again circa 2009, again a setup/entrapment. Think Assange's fate. Now he writes. But 'they' have not managed to pin any violation of Classified info. So u have to wonder....

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 08 Jan 2020 17:50

The crash of the Ukrainian B-737 - on takeoff from Teheran - while tragic, also seems a bit too coincidental. Brings back memories of the US Joint Chief of Staff announcing how the USS Vincennes with the Aegis AA system and all, had downed an "Iranian F-14 Tomcat" carrying over 300 passengers.

John · Post by **John** » 08 Jan 2020 18:18

Sachin wrote:
Lohit wrote:Apparently most of these were Canadians of Iranian descent.

Aditya_V wrote:I think thats the story which is going to be sold to the Iranian domestic Audience.
If the maximum casualty is amongst Iranians or people of Iranian descent then Iran has scored an own goal. And yes, it is a bit surprising to find 80+ Canadians in Iran; a country which is not known for its tourist potential etc. And if Iran goes to town saying that it downed a civilian air craft to prove its point, the US perhaps can release the passenger manifest of the unfortunate aircraft (and prove that it was Iranians again who took the hit).

Ukraine airlines was doing cheap flights from Canada to Kiev so lot of Iranian Canadiens took advantage of it to fly to Iran. Keep in mind some of them have close connection to Iranian admin and are fairly wealthy so unlikely Iran would risk killing them as it depends on expatriates for investments.

Overall in a couple days Iran has almost turned into laughing material (Stampede, failed missile attack, possible airline shoot down) almost like they are failing on purpose to get some compassion.

Brings back memories of the US Joint Chief of Staff announcing how the USS Vincennes with the Aegis AA system and all, had downed an "Iranian F-14 Tomcat" carrying over 300 passengers.

System operator has to determine if it is threat or not Aegis is not some AI that identifies it is passenger plane don't shoot. The system actually identified it as civilian ac and gave all attitude and flight track info correctly. But the crew which had engaged Iranian boats still believed it was F-14 especially since the airline did not respond any communication.

nam · Post by **nam** » 08 Jan 2020 18:39

So WW3 started with US drone attack at a chap and ended with BM attack at random points on a iraqi airbase and lots of dead civilians, who had nothing to do with any of these..

So much for all the noise on social media about WW3...

Regarding the BM not hitting anything, reminds me of the USN battlegroup which came in to BoB in 71. The commander deliberately delayed the battlegroup.. to prevent getting in to WW3..

I am sure the IRGC commander putting in the cordinates of the airbase, was no in mood to be bombed by USAF. The supreme leader be none the wiser.. and can be the convinced that US is hiding casualties.

Lohit · Post by **Lohit** » 08 Jan 2020 18:45

Overall in a couple days Iran has almost turned into laughing material

I guess this was the case during the Iran-Iraq war as well. Whilst both sides were shelling billions to get new western arms - they used to leave half of it behind on battlefields in case of retreats, because they didnt know how to fix a gasket if it went kaput. We saw the same phenomenon with KSA leaving equipment and running off in Yemen.

No wonder the crafty 150 iq joos lick them on every occasion. Ditto for SDRE vs mard-e-momin conflicts.

Lohit · Post by **Lohit** » 08 Jan 2020 19:23

Iran will not give blackbox to Boeing: https://mobile.twitter.com/AlexInAir/st ... 3925153794

Pentagon reportedly states Iran intentionally missed both targets: https://mobile.twitter.com/hdagres/stat ... 8683652096

John · Post by **John** » 08 Jan 2020 19:33

Lohit wrote:Iran will not give blackbox to Boeing: https://mobile.twitter.com/AlexInAir/st ... 3925153794

Pentagon reportedly states Iran intentionally missed both targets: https://mobile.twitter.com/hdagres/stat ... 8683652096

That's incorrect CNN said it was Pentagon but no proof now it Is unnamed Trump admin officials. Twitter thread talks about it, Imo western MSM is trying to give Iran a way out for incompetence and also incompetent Iran makes trump look good which CNN definetly doesn't want. CNN has been hyping Iran for almost 1 week.

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 08 Jan 2020 19:35

tandav wrote:

In a wild flight of imagination I think it is in the realm of possibility that Iraq and Iran may merge into a single Shia dominant country.

Iraqi Shia are ARABS,
Irani Shia are PERSIANS.
They are incompatible

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 08 Jan 2020 20:18

the fact that a ukranian plane has crashed is all the more interesting..

anmol · Post by **anmol** » 08 Jan 2020 20:19

Source: Twitter @CindyOtis_ thread

Tue Jan 07 23:51:10 +0000 2020
The image of the attack tweeted by Iran's Fars News Agency is actually a picture they gave to news agencies in 2017 when Iran struck ISIL targets in Syria. (See related Guardian story from the 2017 strike: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/ ... yrian-town) https://t.co/0J8qBaAqdL

Tue Jan 07 23:59:42 +0000 2020
This one is from Gaza in November last year. (See related AFP story from November: https://www.lecourriercauchois.fr/actua ... que-a-gaza) https://t.co/gcU35CXvSP

This picture is from a gas pipeline explosion in southern Iran in 2016. https://t.co/KI2paGt6Bu (Gas pipeline #explosion in Bandar Ganaveh in Southern #Iran: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Esk7dVJKCMc)

Rishi_Tri · Post by **Rishi_Tri** » 08 Jan 2020 20:24

The general was bait and people took it. Flying in Iraq, that too Baghdad international airport and with whereabouts known? Seems massive protocol failure or planned move that has paid off for Iran. The Ayatollah and the civilian leadership have their positions strengthened. Also, now they have the license to hit anywhere, not only mid east but across the world.

For all the western shenanigans, Iran runs Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen by proxy. The Sauds and Sheikhs must have their brains scrambled.

All these rockets must be some local commander enjoying himself.

Real reaction may be in form of bases in Qatar, big oil facilities, the Sheikhs and Prince's gold plated homes, civilian targets, military headquarters at random locations (General for General)... they are playing long game.. make everyone think they are stupid and then strike..

Peregrine · Post by **Peregrine** » 08 Jan 2020 20:28

ramana wrote:Looks like Iran chose to become shaeed.

ArjunPandit wrote:i have been a teetotaler for entire life except finger licks from the offerings to kuldevta bhairav ji..
i pledged that I will drink scotch on the demise of pakis when it happens around 2022 i puke ...i will raise a toast for you guys if i am not with some of you..

ArjunPandit Ji:

In case I can make it, I will bring a bottle of Laphroaig!
Cheers

habal · Post by **habal** » 08 Jan 2020 20:30

Awaiting Trump press conference

my wager is on that after a lot of hee-haw of US superiority and ability and Iranian cowardice. Trump will at some point of time announce complete retreat from Iraq. If not today, at some point of time over the week.

habal · Post by **habal** » 08 Jan 2020 20:39

Elijah J. Magnier
@ejmalrai
· 4h

#Iran informed #Iraq Prime Minister Adel Abdel Mahdi of its intention to bomb #US military bases in #Anbar and #Kurdistan before the attack.

Abdel Mahdi warned the Americans who took their precautions before the attack.

I'll write more details about this attack in my article.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 08 Jan 2020 20:50

Subramanian Swamy Verified account @Swamy39 3h3 hours ago

It is not clear whether US had targeted the Hezbollah official instead of the Iranian No.2 and since they were sighted together and hence the Iranian was collateral damage. I heard this from a well informed person in US. If true then Iran US war like situation will cool.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 08 Jan 2020 20:57

ArjunPandit wrote:the fact that a ukranian plane has crashed is all the more interesting..

sabotage is a high possibility.

missile strike possibly by mistake.

the plane was engulfed by flames even as she went down

iran has no quarrel with ukraine

Ali Hashem is a BBC Iran correspondent.

#Breaking First footage of the Ukrainian airplane while on fire falling near #Tehran

https://twitter.com/alihashem_tv/status ... 2749877250

habal · Post by **habal** » 08 Jan 2020 21:18

from all accounts the ukrainian carrier was at 7000 feet when malfunction occured. And it was airborne for an hour.

most likely Iranians must have switched on their missile defence thinking that aircraft has exited the airspace.

Ukrainian airlines have excellent safety record until now with no crashes in history.

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 08 Jan 2020 21:26

Peregrine wrote:
ramana wrote:Looks like Iran chose to become shaeed.
ArjunPandit wrote:i have been a teetotaler for entire life except finger licks from the offerings to kuldevta bhairav ji..
i pledged that I will drink scotch on the demise of pakis when it happens around 2022 i puke ...i will raise a toast for you guys if i am not with some of you..
ArjunPandit Ji:

In case I can make it, I will bring a bottle of Laphroaig!
Cheers

if you're in londonistan, desh(dilli bangalore) or NYC, CLT i will catch hold of you....

John · Post by **John** » 08 Jan 2020 21:31

chetak wrote:
Subramanian Swamy Verified account @Swamy39 3h3 hours ago

It is not clear whether US had targeted the Hezbollah official instead of the Iranian No.2 and since they were sighted together and hence the Iranian was collateral damage. I heard this from a well informed person in US. If true then Iran US war like situation will cool.

He was targeted all along and Trump especially signed off on qassrm, this reveals there is leak from Iranian or Iraqi top officials to US that he was coming to visit the militia. Lot of Iraq Shia leaders have been quiet won't be suprised if they wanted him gone as they were not happy with growing Persian influence.

habal · Post by **habal** » 08 Jan 2020 21:36

John wrote:
chetak wrote:
He was target all along and Trump especially signed off on it, this reveals there is leak from Iranian or Iraqi top officials to US that he was coming to visit the militia. Lot of Iraq Shia leaders have been quiet won't be suprised if they wanted him gone as they were not happy with growing Persian influence.

he was not coming to visit 'the militia', he came to Iraq to receive Trump/Pompeo missive on terms of easing of sanctions to be conveyed via Iraqi PM.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 08 Jan 2020 21:39

habal wrote:from all accounts the ukrainian carrier was at 7000 feet when malfunction occured. And it was airborne for an hour.

most likely Iranians must have switched on their missile defence thinking that aircraft has exited the airspace.

Ukrainian airlines have excellent safety record until now with no crashes in history.

Why would an airliner be at 7000 feet 1 hour after takeoff? The report said shortly after takeoff. Highest likelihood of engine fire is during takeoff-climb, hain? Must have been seconds/ 1 - 5 mins after takeoff.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 08 Jan 2020 21:40

chetak wrote:
Subramanian Swamy Verified account @Swamy39 3h3 hours ago
It is not clear whether US had targeted the Hezbollah official instead of the Iranian No.2 and since they were sighted together and hence the Iranian was collateral damage. I heard this from a well informed person in US. If true then Iran US war like situation will cool.

Clearly quoting The Best: UBCN.

habal · Post by **habal** » 08 Jan 2020 21:42

Crash was just 2 mins after take off.

John · Post by **John** » 08 Jan 2020 21:47

habal wrote:
John wrote: He was target all along and Trump especially signed off on it, this reveals there is leak from Iranian or Iraqi top officials to US that he was coming to visit the militia. Lot of Iraq Shia leaders have been quiet won't be suprised if they wanted him gone as they were not happy with growing Persian influence.
he was not coming to visit 'the militia', he came to Iraq to receive Trump/Pompeo missive on terms of easing of sanctions to be conveyed via Iraqi PM.

Source or you just making things up? It was confirmed already that he came to visit the militia to discuss operation details by even the Iraqis, he was heading to their base fyi.