West Asia News and Discussions

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
Mukesh.Kumar
BRFite
Posts: 1101
Joined: 06 Dec 2009 14:09

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 11 Jan 2020 12:04

Sheikh Haitham bin Tariq al Said is the new Sultan of Onam.

Muscat Daily update.

Image

Karthik S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5380
Joined: 18 Sep 2009 12:12

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby Karthik S » 11 Jan 2020 12:12

The departed sultan was apparently a friend of India, hope the new is one as well.

Kati
BRFite
Posts: 1373
Joined: 27 Jun 1999 11:31
Location: The planet Earth

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby Kati » 11 Jan 2020 12:23

Sultan Qaboos was a very respected person. He stayed away from all sorts of ME troubles, followed a middle path.
Above all, he made sure that his country's oil wealth is spent heavily on education, healthcare and social welfare.
Sultan Qaboos University is one of the best in the entire ME.

Lisa
BRFite
Posts: 1129
Joined: 04 May 2008 11:25

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby Lisa » 11 Jan 2020 13:50

Just of curiosity, lets say Hafiz Saeed was made a diplomat and then killed in a drone strike overseas. Would all those so concerned about Soleimani killing be writing what they are writing for that terrorist Hafiz Saeed?

Just innocently asking.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby UlanBatori » 11 Jan 2020 17:33

Lisa wrote:Just of curiosity, lets say Hafiz Saeed was made a diplomat and then killed in a drone strike overseas. Would all those so concerned about Soleimani killing be writing what they are writing for that terrorist Hafiz Saeed?
Just innocently asking.

Interesting hypothetical question. Hafeez is LeT == ISI == Pak Govt. So already a "diplomat".
Leads to others not at all hypothetical. It appears that the "diplomat" who is second in command on foreign policy in the US (like Suleimani was for Iran) is actually a former SeeAeyyeh spook-neta, and therefore "responsible" for thousands of deaths of innocents in Syria,Yemen, Iraq, Libya, Ukraine, Grenada, Panama etc etc. Shipping arms to terrorists. Ordering flying IED (imperialist Great-Satanic terrorist-drone) strikes on innocent tribal herrows in Pakistan.
Rest of the answer may be read from your innocent question.
Come to think of it: Vladimir Putin is ex-KGB. Faaaaar worse than Suleimani in that he ordered the release of the Victoria Nuland "*uck the EU" recording, and the Democratic National Council's antics and hence denied Her Majesty HiC the POTUSy. So doesn't it make him a "legitimate" target? Next time he comes to say G-7 for dinner, whammo! Predator drone strike. Ooops! A spot of collateral damage there, what2do onlee? Mostly foreigners, all anti-American. No matter.

Historically, assassinations have apparently never been done against ppl whom the assassin LIKED (maybe the hit on John Lennon was an exception). So if Dislike and "Have-Drone-Will-Kill" are the only criteria, a lot of vacancies may be opening up in senior govt positions worldwide.
Would Gen. Maneckshaw or Gen. Jacob have been "legitimate" targets? Responsible for the deaths of soooo many good Paki rapists, Front-Lyin' MUNNA Al-Lies of the good old USA. Nixon must have been mad as a (bolton?) at him.

One small problem with the reasoning advanced (sorry, advanced after the fact) hit in question that it is no different from the MO of the People's War Group, CPI(Marxist-Leninist-Maoist). They conduct "trials" of such Enemies Of The People as judges, chief Ministers of States, police chiefs etc and pronounce death sentences ahead of the trials. Only difference is that they seem to announce the verdicts and post the sentences well BEFORE their "drone strikes" using JNU grads.
Last edited by UlanBatori on 11 Jan 2020 17:51, edited 1 time in total.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby UlanBatori » 11 Jan 2020 17:47

OTOH, Lisaj, I saw a post somewhere on the 'Net that maybe v r entering an era where wars are resolved by hits on the LEADERS, not the soldiers. Not at all a bad idea, hain? Forget the UN, all the world's netas will become Gandian. Wars will be resolved by watching PPT presentations with embedded videos from simulation. B4 passing the ZamZam cola around.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby UlanBatori » 11 Jan 2020 18:17

Someone accusing UBCN of Sanity! Intolerable. We earn the C in UBCN every din. The only DECLARED Conspiracy Network in the dunia, with a stellar record of predictions. Most here are too young to remember our success in the glorious Kriket thread which was deleted after the Mumbai Betting Bazaar :(( that v were putting them out of bijnej.

1) Does anyone here (I know ramana does) remember KAL007, shot down over Sakhalin?
The report at the time was that a US spy plane (presumed C-130 with gizmos) was using the radar blip of the B747 (I can't remember what KAL007 was) as cover. The Soviet air defense was tracking the spy plane as it headed towards the declared haraam airspace over Sakhalin, when the KAL flight veered from its flight path and converged its radar blip with the spy plane. So, the Soviets saw intruding spyplane blip over haraam airspace, sent up fighters, tried challenging the intruder on military frequencies (I have no idea) and then ran out of time, so they fired their missiles. Soviet fighters had short endurance, matching the MTBF of their engines.

BUT... small question. If that was the real situation, when the KAL flight plunged off the screen, the spy plane would have been exposed. Was it also shot down? If so the Soviets would have announced it. Did the Soviets just sit back and say: "Oh, the destroyed target was an airliner, what remains is only a spy plane over our most secret missile and bomb test sites. No worries! Let them take pics to their heart's content!" So one must conclude that there was no spyplane, only a radar blip. The airliner was not used to COVER a spyplane's blip, the airliner was used to get the airliner shot down. Electronically induced set up? Why did the airliner deviate from its flight path? Of course the logical answer is that the Soviets made up the spyplane story because, being Evil Empire with trigger-happy murderers and/or total idiots running their (centralized) air defense, they mercilessly killed the innocents on board KAL 007. I think the air defense ppl on Sakhalin were moved north to R&R camps near Tunguska. Longer retirement than the Air Defense Jarnails after Mathias Rust flew a single-engine plane all the way to land in Red Square. I think those jarnails were reported to be shot at dawn.

Curiously, 007 was carrying COTUS Rep Larry MacDonald. At the time, Nukem Larry was far worse than Ayatollah Bolton as a "chicken hawk" calling for nuking the Evil Soviet Empire. And India no doubt. Perhaps ppl on both sides heaved a sigh of relief at that, as his fans took out processions and named a highway after him. Maybe other interesting entities with him, all shaheed.

2) MH370 disappeared, last seen by residents of next-door island, heading over Diego Garcia at very low level. Pieces found placed on beaches in the general vicinity of Reunion Island (wherever that is, but I think wrong side of the ocean from Perth, Kangaroostan where they concentrated the search). "Pilot was a terrorist". Convenient.

3) MH17 was shot down over Ukraine. Over area held by pro-Russian Freedom Fighters armed with Buk SAMs. Regular scheduled flight not off its usual flight path. Why did the rebels fire, if indeed that is what happened? The Russians claimed that the shooting was done by 2 Brutal Kiev Regime (I am using the terminological tactics of CNN, instead of calling them Ukraine govt) fighter planes. Why did anyone shoot a civilian airliner going at 30K feet? The "rebels" said: "Aha! We need some media attention!" Qui bono?????

4) Russian (or was it Israeli) plane going to Russia shot down over one of the Baltic/Black sea states. Why?

5) Iranian new clear program suffered huge setback because someone hacked into the controls of their centrifuges and destroyed them with no missile and no HUMNIT/terrorist penetration of the facilities. Later glamorized (and credit stolen for UQ) by Frederick Forsyth, worst book he has written (yet).

6) Now this. Could it be that someone who could hack into the nuclear centrifuge controls of Iran, has figured out how to hack into centralized air defense of Iran, putting fake images over radar blips of airliners? OF COURSE, diagnosis can only be "Human Error". Just like over Sakhalin. I also wonder whether the IranAir Airbus that was shot down by the USS Vincennes was also a similar case. Staying away from any desh comparisons, thank u. We do value our continued participation to try and educate the innocents at PeeAref. Technology tested and refined several times already?

7) Again, who was/is heading foreign affairs in US? What was his prior credential in foreign affairs?

8) And from our "Would THEY ever do something like this? Ban those who even hint at such blasphemy!" department. Anyone remember the Air India B707 that crashed into Mont Blanc, carrying Dr. Homi Jehangir Bhabha?

9) And the mysterious crash of the plane carrying UN GenSec Dag Hamarskjoeld (phew!) and Congo's first elected Prime Minister Patrick Lumumba? Set off a terrible war in which Indian UN-peacekeepers also died.

Now the CNN-post-parroteers have CAUSE to :(( and :twisted: . Introducing doubt? Calling for THOUGHT? :eek: Haraam!!

Philip
BRF Oldie
Posts: 20702
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: India

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby Philip » 11 Jan 2020 19:21

Coming back to the tragic accidental shooting down of the UKR jet, it was revealed by some official sources that the jet in its approach to an air base appeared to behave like an incoming cruise missile.The AD gunner had only ten seconds to decide buthis communications were disrupted possibly by jamming ( attempted to counter the incoming aircraft/" missile").

This also brings us back to our own " blue-on-blue" downing of an MI-17 during the Doklam spat.Was something similar at wofk?
It was like the Iranian incident at a time of high tension with Iranian missiles heading for US targets, the UKR airliner mistaken for an incoming missile. Similarly during the Doklam spat, the IAF were fighting off a Pak air attack in depth and key defence sites in Srinagar were the target .The same could've happened,the AD command centre mistakenly identifying it as a cruise missile while attempts to jam may have also been on. The point about hello's IFF not being on,not fitted or not in working condition beggars the ,P

habal
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6881
Joined: 24 Dec 2009 18:46

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby habal » 11 Jan 2020 19:54

...
Last edited by habal on 11 Jan 2020 20:26, edited 1 time in total.

anmol
BRFite
Posts: 1836
Joined: 05 May 2009 17:39

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby anmol » 11 Jan 2020 20:13



Badly edited video shows the explosions in the Chinese city of Tianjin. They didn't even bother to remove the audio from the video below.


kit
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3942
Joined: 13 Jul 2006 18:16

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby kit » 11 Jan 2020 20:31

anmol wrote:
habal wrote:
Badly edited video shows the explosions in the Chinese city of Tianjin. They didn't even bother to remove the audio from the video below.




that's 2015, old clip

anmol
BRFite
Posts: 1836
Joined: 05 May 2009 17:39

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby anmol » 11 Jan 2020 20:47

Start from 0:25 :- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=18C5bR1DwOA (Chinese Explosion)
Start from 0:20 :- https://twitter.com/vEf5i7l0Mx7pSk3/sta ... 8532729856 ("Iranian attack on US base")
ImageImage

brar_w
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8753
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby brar_w » 11 Jan 2020 21:07

deleted
Last edited by brar_w on 12 Jan 2020 01:18, edited 3 times in total.

Philip
BRF Oldie
Posts: 20702
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: India

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby Philip » 11 Jan 2020 21:47

Panic,false alarm of an incoming attack just after Iranian missile launches,fog of war, but trigger-happy failure of nerves
appears to be what happened.Similar case when the USS Vincennes shot down an Iranian airliner. But the point is clear.The schedules of daily flights are well know to ATC,air defences. Was this a UKR charter flight or regular flight?

With the speed of events in modern warfare, giving defenders just seconds to decide and act, automated systems as well, such incidents are bound to happen in any conflict. In the case of KAL 007, the aircraft was off course ,suspected of being a US surveillsnce aircraft,which several reports said was flying at a higher alt. above ,part of a ruse to get Sov.air defense systems to light up and identify the systems,etc. The Ru pilot shot it down when it was about to leave Sov. airspace and not land as allegedly ordered to do.Russians communicating with Koreans in their own lingos probably added to the confusion.If he hadn't,he would've been courtmartialed.

One Q.Were the Iranian missiles launched fromthe nearby air base or from other sotes? If from the base it could explain the trigger- happiness.

brar_w
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8753
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby brar_w » 11 Jan 2020 22:01

Philip wrote:Panic,false alarm,fog of war, but trigger-happy failure of nerves
apperas to be what happened.Similar case when the USS Vincennes shot down an Iranian airliner.


Not the same thing. That shootdown was more than 3 decades ago (technology has moved on since then both on the military side and commercial side) and in a completely different environment. In this case, the most capable Iranian Air Defenses (in 2020) were deployed in Tehran, and it was their own civilian airport, their own civilian air traffic control systems and their own civil radar feeds that were contributing to the picture of air-traffic flow in the region. On top of this, even if one were to completely ignore that aspect.. how does an airliner behave like a cruise missile? (there are RCS profiles, and performance and behavior to factor). At least they have admitted to it now after claiming that the theory (first put forth by the US based on technical military intel which even pointed to the specific air-defense system (type) involved) was scientifically impossible and that any such efforts were "psychological warfare" against them. If it was just US intel claims they would have probably continued to deny this (they even diagnosed the cause of the crash even before they retreived and analyzed the black box and other evidence). It is quite likely that citizen-generated content provided overwhelming evidence and they feared that it would have eventually found itself onto Social Media or be scooped up by foreign intel agencies (if it hadn't already).

Do you honestly think that air-defense operators and their missile defense chain of command had no idea that a missile (s) had been launched by an SA-15 battery? For 3-4 days? I think the claim of the cruise missile like behavior is probably them trying to cover up any further questions that may seek to inquire into why their air-force did not scramble fighters to verify the identity of an unknown radar track. Some of their largest air-bases appear to be in the vicinity of Tehran. Wouldn't their air-force have been on high alert given they had just launched an offensive into Iraq and potential retaliation was possible (something they themselves have cited as reason for air-defense radar activation)?. If this was "human error" from a rogue stand alone SA-15 battery then it, as I said earlier, points to incompetence, not as much on the particular air-defense unit but on their missile defense command (or whatever they call it) that failed to provide its air-defense units with an integrated picture of the battlefield over their national capital region where they have their most capable air-defenses employed. I wonder how these units will perform during actual conflict when the other side is using deception and EW to the full extent (as in actively trying to have cheap unmanned "cruise missiles" simulate the signature and flight profile of fighter aircraft).

Philip wrote:One Q.Were the Iranian missiles launched fromthe nearby air base or from other sotes?


You are probably looking at a sub 20 km engagement.

Deans
BRFite
Posts: 1262
Joined: 26 Aug 2004 19:13
Location: Moscow

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby Deans » 11 Jan 2020 22:36

There seems to be a great deal of incompetence by Iranian air defenses. The aircraft was ascending and flying away from Tehran - just the opposite of what an enemy missile or aircraft would do. The problem may be lack of training of missile crews (which will only be exposed when they actually use their weapons) - partly due to Western sanctions and partly because of dual control of the armed forces (regular army and IRGC).

The missile used was a SA-15 (NATO) or TOI-M1 (Russian name) missile with a 12km range.

hgupta
BRFite
Posts: 115
Joined: 20 Oct 2018 14:17

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby hgupta » 11 Jan 2020 23:13

Deans, decades of sanctions and embargoes and the disappearing cheap Soviet military suppliers have meant that Iranian military forces’ equipment have become obsolete or inadequate. They can’t even have real military training or they will lose spares they need for an actual war. Their only military strategy is assymetric warfare from an inferior position. Their indigenous arm industry is not up to par with Western level or even Russian level.

That’s why the mullahs were so quick to declare victory and an end to current hostilities. They knew that they would get their asses kicked.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby UlanBatori » 11 Jan 2020 23:30

when the other side is using deception and EW to the full extent (as in actively trying to have cheap unmanned "cruise missiles" simulate the signature and flight profile of fighter aircraft).

See, the point of my post is that I think that question is already answered. No way the Eyeranians are going to admit it, any more than the Soviets over Sakhalin. Because admitting it is == to admitting that u r nood. As in
jisko jitna chahiye
kaat-kaat le jayiye

So they will admit to "hyooman error" (as the Soviets did), put out a rumor that the offending crews have been executed.. and grit their teeth and pay Blackwater Hackers Inc heavy baksheesh to ferret out the bug in their system - and put in another while they are about it, because the hacker that they send will also be a Mossad agint. Look at the amount of time it took them, to realize what had happened.
Last edited by UlanBatori on 11 Jan 2020 23:32, edited 1 time in total.

brar_w
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8753
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby brar_w » 11 Jan 2020 23:31

hgupta wrote:Deans, decades of sanctions and embargoes and the disappearing cheap Soviet military suppliers have meant that Iranian military forces’ equipment have become obsolete or inadequate. They can’t even have real military training or they will lose spares they need for an actual war. Their only military strategy is assymetric warfare from an inferior position. Their indigenous arm industry is not up to par with Western level or even Russian level.

That’s why the mullahs were so quick to declare victory and an end to current hostilities. They knew that they would get their asses kicked.



Iran has modernized its air-defenses to some extent, over legacy FSU and US purchases, via both acquisition from Russia and China (radars), and via developing indigenous radars, missiles (probably knockoffs) and C2 systems. The SA-15 unit in question was acquired in the mid 2000's and was part of a 29 system acquisition from Russia. The S-200VE system has been operational since the late 1990's as well and was upgraded in the 2000's IIRC. They also operate 4 batteries of the S-300PMU-2 which was declared operational by them only this decade. There are three known S-300 locations in Iran ( one known to be temporarily deployed to Fordow occasionally while serving as a training unit when not there) out of which 2 are around Tehran (the eastern Tehran site usually has 2 S-300 batteries located there) and that is where the bulk of their modern Air Defense systems are generally located. The Tehran region alone has S-300, SA-15, S-200, Hawk and HQ12 missile sites currently active so it is a very dense network of some old but mostly modern (by their standard) systems. Their indigenous systems are used in a tactical capacity so those move around and generally are not permanently located at one site.

They also declared the Bavar-373 operational in August of 2019. They claim that it is an indegenously developed system featuring a modern phased array radar and a medium ranged interceptor. They also have the RAAD which appears to be a BUK knockoff. On the military side of the forum, I believe there exists a thread (or is part of the int. thread) that goes into details about their investments on domestic and imported air-defense systems over the last couple of decades.

Image below notes the then semi-permanent deployments of the S-300 at the three sites (2 located within the same area) in Tehran's vicinity and the associated engagement (200km) and acquisition (300 km) ranges of the systems associated radars. I believe there is also a JY-14 radar site that covers the airspace for hundreds of miles around Tehran.
Image

A sat. view of the large S-300 complex east of Tehran. It generally houses two batteries -

Image

All this is definitely no indication of obsolete equipment, and a lack of new systems coming in every now and then to recapitalize older Iran-Iraq war systems. The 29 SA-15 units (all operational), and the 2-3 indegenous Short-medium ranged systems are more than adequate to replace the Hawks and HQ12's while the S-200 and S-300 are semi-strategic Medium to Long ranged air defenses which provide protection to high value targets. This is certainly not legacy cold war equipment which hasn't been upgraded or recapitalized in decades. There is a healthy mix of systems acquired in the 1990s, 2000's, and even this decade. And Tehran and its immediate vicinity has most of this operational. While it can be claimed that their air-defenses are inadequate to provide broad, tactical coverage using the higher end systems..they certainly have credible systems in the vicinity of Tehran and Qom including their most potent system (S-300) nearly all of which (all 4 batteries) are deployed between those two areas. It is easy to procure but very hard to integrate and operate. There is definitely a case to be made that they demonstrated severe incompetence during a heightened alert. But the incompetence is not, IMHO, with that one operator but within their Missile defense command..They have enough mil and civilian gear there to clearly see that this was an airliner. That SA-15 operator probably didn't have any of that SA. As i said, this with a fairly simple scenario - " no actual red-air up in the air".
Last edited by brar_w on 12 Jan 2020 01:05, edited 12 times in total.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby UlanBatori » 11 Jan 2020 23:41

Coming back to the tragic accidental shooting down of the UKR jet, it was revealed by some official sources that the jet in its approach to an air base appeared to behave like an incoming cruise missile.The AD gunner had only ten seconds to decide buthis communications were disrupted possibly by jamming ( attempted to counter the incoming aircraft/" missile").


This COULD be the source of the absolute ******. One has to consider the strange possibility that EVERYONE IS TELLING THE TRUTH (as they saw it).

The airliner was reported to have turned back after reporting fire in an engine. May a fire DID happen on takeoff.
He turned around, but with a radius of a few km: no 80-degree bank Immenmann Turn, but a gentle turn with only 1 operating engine.

So on the return he was vectored direct, from an odd place, and against the direction of the takeoffs operating then.
The flight went over a part of Teheran that was "near the airport" as in within several miles, but ***NOT*** under the usual takeoff path. They must have had, oh, 1 takeoff every 5 mins at least that time of the night.

What the SAM Abduls saw was an object trailing flame and smoke, coming in fairly fast. Cruise Mjjile!
So the civil aviation guys thought they were telling the truth: the airliner had engine failure, and onboard fire, turned back, but crashed short of the airport.

The SAM guys thought they were telling the truth, because what they hit was nowhere near the civilian airliner flight path.
It took a couple of days of denial before the awful truth could not be denied any more.

I think the passengers and crew were doomed; the missile just made it faster.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby UlanBatori » 11 Jan 2020 23:46

Here is evidence ..
.
Two flights after Flight 752 were canceled. Iran Air Flight 721 took off soon after the crash.
This Wednesday, Flight 752 took off nearly an hour behind schedule. A Ukrainian official on Friday said the delay was caused by the unloading of cargo from the plane. The two flights that were scheduled to take off right after the Ukrainian jet were canceled, according to FlightAware. Both were bound for Istanbul. But at least eight flights operated by Iran Air flew out of Imam Khomeini airport in the hours after the crash, the data shows. Other airlines whose flights took off shortly after the crash included Emirates, Turkish Airlines and Mahan Air, another Iranian carrier.

Look carefully at the flight path map shown. "The last signal was received two minutes after takeoff." That was presumably
"Uniform India Seven Five Two. Mayday. Engine failure. Turning right to return to airport. Declaring emergency".
So look how far it went in 2 minutes from the middle of the runway where planes usually lift off. But then look at where the crash site is: it is waaaay to the right of the flight path. At that point it would have been on a 75 degree vector towards the runway? You can see why that would be mistaken for an incoming missile.
Once hit by a missile, I don't believe that the plane would have gone very far at all, flying so low. At that range, a SAM would probably blow an engine apart - and break a wing, and that's that.
Tragic.
Come to think of it, the cancellations of the 2 flights after the Ukrainian, may have been because of a Missile Alert, cancelled shortly thereafter as the Abduls reported that they had neutralized the threat. :roll:

Ask yourself: If u were head controller at Tehran airport, would YOU have put out a general alert to the Jarnail commanding air defences ordering him to stand down all SAMs within 50 miles of Tehran on that night, 4 hours after the Iranian strike had gone out? Just on the off chance that there may be low-flying Ukrainian airliners over random parts of the city?

Now for the US media nonsense: Look at thevideos on NBC: If these are true then we see the airliner with its bright landing lights on. Missile impact (TWO missiles) and massive explosion, and then a direct downward path to where the airliner wreckage hit the ground with a huge flame flareup - visible between the buildings from the same ground-held camera. Yet the talking head at NYT says: the airliner flew for several minutes after it was hit by the missiles". This is MISinformation. The airliner was way, way off the usual takeoff path, and it fell down within seconds of the explosion. The thing is, no one expected an airliner to be flying in that zone in that direction. Communications SNAFU.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby UlanBatori » 12 Jan 2020 00:29

Iranian commander on his decision
“After hearing about the crash of the Ukrainian plane, I wished to die”, Hajizadeh said during a press conference on Saturday.
I wish I had died and not witnessed such an accident
The commander explained that the incident had occurred as the country was bracing for potential US strikes and that the “likelihood of conflict” between the two nations has been “unprecedented” since the Islamic Revolution of 1979.
According to an early assessment, the Ukrainian plane was erroneously identified as an incoming cruise missile, which resulted in the tragedy. Air-defense units received a warning that cruise missiles had been fired at the country and stayed on high alert at the time of the incident, Hajizadeh stated.
The commander of the anti-aircraft unit had sought confirmation for the launch from his superiors, but experienced communication problems and had to make the decision –which turned out to be wrong– on his own. The officer only had 10 seconds to make the decision, Hajizadeh added...Hajizadeh stated that the IRGC notified the authorities that it had likely hit the plane back right after the incident, yet this information was not disclosed to the public while the crash site was being investigated. Neither IRGC nor the country’s military sought to hide the incident, the due procedure was to be followed, he explained.


What would be Hilari-ous if it weren't so bloody tragic is that the See Enn Enn and EnnBeeSee are blaming the crash on Trump killing Suleimani.

brar_w
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8753
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby brar_w » 12 Jan 2020 01:14

Fligthradar archives all flight paths that it covers on its website. Below is their graphic overlaying the relevant flight path of the aircraft (before it crashed) over the flight path taken by it during the same departure over the last few weeks.

Paths of all #PS752 departures from 2 Nov 2019 to 8 Jan 2020 (45 flights). First image focuses on horizontal position, second image displays vertical position. 8 Jan departure is red line in both images. LINK


Image
Image

chanakyaa
BRFite
Posts: 1367
Joined: 18 Sep 2009 00:09
Location: Hiding in Karakoram

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby chanakyaa » 12 Jan 2020 01:31

...But then look at where the crash site is: it is waaaay to the right of the flight path. At that point it would have been on a 75 degree vector towards the runway?

According to Google Map's measure distance function, the distance between the last point of contact and crash site is at least 16km (or 10 miles) on ground. Air distance definitely more.

PS752 Flight Path

brar_w
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8753
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby brar_w » 12 Jan 2020 01:42

The aircraft is doing what 8-10 km a minute? So you’re looking at a fairly short post impact time before this thing hit the ground.

Y. Kanan
BRFite
Posts: 807
Joined: 27 Mar 2003 12:31
Location: USA

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby Y. Kanan » 12 Jan 2020 02:29

UlanBatori wrote:What would be Hilari-ous if it weren't so bloody tragic is that the See Enn Enn and EnnBeeSee are blaming the crash on Trump killing Suleimani.


How is the loss of this airliner NOT Trump's fault? He brought about the entire sequence of events. US creates chaos, gets innocents killed, and gets a free pass?

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby UlanBatori » 12 Jan 2020 02:37

Brarji:
Look at the video on NBC: Looks like same camera catches both the missile explosion and the falling object with a huge explosion on the ground. No long flight, definitely not minutes, after missile strike. Unless video is edited to compress time. So missile impact is not on usual departure path, but on return path, way off to the right of the initial flight path, nearly 75 degrees off to the right. Which means aircraft was indeed turning back, so they were already in bad trouble. "Aircraft flew in flames for several minutes" may have nothing to do with missile strike after which aircraft broke up. I am not saying that the aircraft would not have made it back on its own, but it may already have been on fire in which case they were as good as dead. "uncontained engine failure" into full fuel tanks, ripping the fuselage and splashing burning jet fuel through it. In which case the missile strike was merciful oblivion.
TWO SAMs hitting simultaneously? I don't think the aircraft structure had any integrity after that. Wings must have broken, so it was just all free fall after that.
Note that there was no message from cockpit after initial MayDay, 2 mins into takeoff.

Speed at that point in turnaround is probably quite a bit less than 4 km per minute (240kph)

16 km crow distance is maybe 20km circular distance if turning around == 5 minutes after the first message. NO WAY is that after the missile strike.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby UlanBatori » 12 Jan 2020 02:44

These guys are for real?
Finian Cunningham
is an award-winning journalist. For over 25 years, he worked as a sub-editor and writer for The Mirror, Irish Times, Irish Independent and Britain's Independent, among others.

Britain's Independent is who Robert Fisk writes for. Out-and-out the best writer on Iraq and Syria wars today in English. So by all means, a well-informed read.
The swift admission by Iran of its terrible error in shooting down the airliner – mistaken for an incoming enemy cruise missile – has taken critics of Iran by surprise. Two days after the plane came down, Western leaders and media were claiming it was an Iranian missile that caused it. Iranian aviation officials at first denied that, saying they believed it was a technical onboard problem, such as engine failure.
Critics of Iran were saying that “the regime” would stonewall the truth and hide behind obfuscation about what happened. Initial Iranian denials weren’t malicious. It was probably more a case of not knowing what happened in a situation of confusion and calamity. When the Iranians put their hand up to acknowledge it was one of their air defense units which had fired the missile, it took integrity and humility to admit fault.


Kananji: 2 quote Sheikh Bill bin Speare, from the Sultan of Veronastan, in "Al Romeo and Houri Juliet", final comment after the total cockup involving duels, secret text messages, tombs, caves, poisons and daggers:
Al Cap-ul-eti and Al Montagui, A pox on both ur houses!

Most of the dead are Iranians, either by citjenship or by descent. Drone ishtrike, 10. Stampede, 63. Plane Crash, 176. Not a bad score for the guy/gal who hit the Fire switch on the Bredator with one finger, holding a Big Mac in the same hand and a Bud Light in the other, in New Mexico or Nebraska.
Welcome to Trumpistan. Where the prior POTUSes cowered and shivered in their Armani suits. MAGA roars again! Look at the reaction on the FOX news forum for the most "moderate" of those.

chanakyaa
BRFite
Posts: 1367
Joined: 18 Sep 2009 00:09
Location: Hiding in Karakoram

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby chanakyaa » 12 Jan 2020 05:23

In all the QS and plane drama, JooK was not directly in news. Former empire had to get their share of pound of flesh. Fear of missing out...

Iran Briefly Arrests British Envoy for Involvement in Tehran Unrest
Britain’s envoy to Tehran Rob Macaire was arrested for hours for his involvement in provoking suspicious acts in a gathering held in front of Tehran Amir Kabir University on Saturday.

brar_w
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8753
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby brar_w » 12 Jan 2020 05:55

What we know so far is that the video showing the missile launch and impact has been geolocated to an apartment complex (IIRC) in Parand roughly 3.5 km from the actual site of missile impact. The SA-15 proximity fuse must have detonated there as the current unconfirmed reports of the missile seeker picture have also been located in that vicinity as well. The aircraft was already headed eastward as part of its routine flight path but turned further eastward after contact was lost which would indicate either a last minute effort to return back to the airport after a close call or less significant damage after the first missile detonated, or an unpiloted deviation of eastward after the missile impact underneath the cockpit (Ukrainian investigators there have already determined that based on analysis of debris) in case there was only one missile used. There were initial reports that 2 missiles may have been launched and the second one was the one that caused the most damage. Hopefully, Iranians open up (investigation), and provide access to parts of the aircraft for ballistic analysis and also open up about missile debris and any other details on what the sequence of events were. But given the protests there and now an admission, I doubt they'll be forthcoming with additional details.

Image

Iran plane crash: Missile struck underneath cockpit - Ukraine
(Video)


anmol wrote:
Badly edited video shows the explosions in the Chinese city of Tianjin. They didn't even bother to remove the audio from the video below.


You mean the twitter profile that was created just a couple of days ago, and has just one follower, is deliberately spreading false information :roll:

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby UlanBatori » 12 Jan 2020 07:04

Ps read UBCN's conspiracy post

JNU-Jamia Millia has a Teheran branch?

After the missile operation in Iraq, US military flights around Iranian borders increased and Iranian military officials reported seeing aerial targets coming toward strategic centers, according to a statement by Iranian armed forces headquarters.
"The aircraft came close to a sensitive IRGC military center at an altitude and flight condition that resembled hostile targeting. Under these circumstances, the aircraft was unintentionally hit, which unfortunately resulted in death of the many Iranian and foreign nationals," the statement reads.
The victims include 82 Iranians, 63 Canadians, 11 Ukrainians, 10 Swedes, four Afghans, three Germans and three British nationals.
"Human error at time of crisis caused by US adventurism led to disaster," Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif tweeted.

The commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Force said he had requested all commercial flights in Iran be grounded until tensions cooled off.
But the Armed Forces and government and aviation authorities chose not to do so, Brigadier-General Amir-Ali Hajizadeh said at a news conference.
Hajizadeh said the plane was misidentified as a cruise missile by an air defense operator. {Here u go...}
The operator was unable to contact the central air defense command to confirm it. He had 10 seconds to choose between shooting it down or not, Hajizadeh said.
Hajizadeh accepted responsibility, saying that once it became clear what had happened, he thought: "I wish I was dead."


A radar operator would have seen the plane turning from the takeoff path. Unless something was seriously screwed up in their system. Observe statement that US entities could see missile launches (two missiles) from Teheran air defense, and what they hit.

Roop
BRFite
Posts: 326
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby Roop » 12 Jan 2020 07:14

Philip wrote:This also brings us back to our own " blue-on-blue" downing of an MI-17 during the Doklam spat... Similarly during the Doklam spat, the IAF were fighting off a Pak air attack in depth and key defence sites in Srinagar were the target.


No, not during the Doklam spat, during the Balakot spat. I realize, of course, that you know this and your post was just a typo, but I wanted to correct the record, just to avoid follow-on confusion.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby UlanBatori » 12 Jan 2020 08:01

Leaving commercial flights flying during that time was perhaps a defensive decision: wonder if US forces would have cared, unless Teheran airport itself was on a target list, but maybe the Ayatollah high command felt safer with foreign hostages at the airport and in the air. But it clearly backfired here because it laid the Iranians open to other types of problems. The Ukrainians are justifiably furious but remember the downing of MH-17 because of their internal spat. One could point the finger and ask why Ukrainian air space was not closed - that would have prevented that disaster.

As for the Canadians, remember AI-182? People who were 7-year olds on that plane might have lived to be around 40 years old by now. But the Canadaian government did not care about the terrorists from their country, blowing up innocents in India. Until that disaster happened How many Canadian govt officials were prosecuted for that mass murder?
The JNU-ul-Teheran demonstrators are right in that Iran deserves a better govt that what these bearded cretins can provide. They won't last 3 hours once a war starts, and by then they will have doomed Iran to total destruction.


habal
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6881
Joined: 24 Dec 2009 18:46

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby habal » 12 Jan 2020 09:26

It is a full occupation. The bully is in action:

#US President @realDonaldTrump threatens to freeze all #Iraq assets if #Baghdad asks him to withdraw US forces from the country.

U.S. Warns Iraq It Risks Losing Access to Key Bank Account if Troops Told to Leave

Loss of access to New York Fed account, where international oil sale revenue is kept, could creating cash crunch in Iraq’s financial system :roll:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-warns- ... 1578759629

mappunni
BRFite
Posts: 231
Joined: 14 Jul 2017 19:07

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby mappunni » 12 Jan 2020 09:32



Hope this opens the eyes of POTUS to the Porkistani threat by restarting military training for them.

Deans
BRFite
Posts: 1262
Joined: 26 Aug 2004 19:13
Location: Moscow

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby Deans » 12 Jan 2020 09:47

hgupta wrote:Deans, decades of sanctions and embargoes and the disappearing cheap Soviet military suppliers have meant that Iranian military forces’ equipment have become obsolete or inadequate. They can’t even have real military training or they will lose spares they need for an actual war. Their only military strategy is assymetric warfare from an inferior position. Their indigenous arm industry is not up to par with Western level or even Russian level.

That’s why the mullahs were so quick to declare victory and an end to current hostilities. They knew that they would get their asses kicked.


Yes, that's my point. The situation is made worse by the Revolutionary guard - whom IMO have less professional training than the regular army, but hog the latest weaponry (the SA-15 was manned by IRGC not regular army). It is similar to Saddam's Iraq (albeit with far less money) where only the Sunni formations of the Republican guard were well equipped, but their officers were chosen only on the basis of tribal ties and political loyalty.
Last edited by Deans on 12 Jan 2020 10:12, edited 1 time in total.

habal
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6881
Joined: 24 Dec 2009 18:46

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby habal » 12 Jan 2020 10:09

On top of that the boeing 737 isn't exactly reknowned for its safety and dependability. What made the 'just serviced' aircraft veer away so sharply from its route. Were boeing trying to pull off an MH370 with it ? It is an open secret that boeing can take over remote control on its FCS. So either the steller boeing safety record is to blame or it is a case of boeing or some american 'security' institution taking over FCS to embarass the Iranian regime which made the plane veer sharply off course in the first place.

Dileep
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5816
Joined: 04 Apr 2005 08:17
Location: Dera Mahab Ali धरा महाबलिस्याः درا مهاب الي

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby Dileep » 12 Jan 2020 12:09

UlanBatori wrote:OTOH, Lisaj, I saw a post somewhere on the 'Net that maybe v r entering an era where wars are resolved by hits on the LEADERS, not the soldiers. Not at all a bad idea, hain? Forget the UN, all the world's netas will become Gandian. Wars will be resolved by watching PPT presentations with embedded videos from simulation. B4 passing the ZamZam cola around.


There is a Star Trek TNG episode, where two planets are at war. The 'computers' fight the war in virtual space, and each bout will have named casualties. Now the funny part. The named casualties are executed by the own side as per the agreement.

Now, captain Chauve who always carry the 24th century equivalent of white man's burden on his bald head and his crew makes the planets realize the stoopidity and stops the war. End of episode.

habal
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6881
Joined: 24 Dec 2009 18:46

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby habal » 12 Jan 2020 16:28

first reporter to cover al-asad airbase after attacks. The damage seems extensive.



Return to “Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Aldonkar, pradeyal, vijayk and 29 guests