West Asia News and Discussions

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 22 Feb 2023 04:09

There was a time when the West thread was very important for India.
Now it is back to historical insignificance.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 22 Feb 2023 04:31

(Israel seems to be heading towards grih Yuddh over Judicial reforms, effect of US colour revolution and spring revolution in Israel itself?)

Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu advances judicial changes despite uproar
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2254416/middle-east

The standoff has plunged Israel into one of its greatest domestic crises, sharpening a divide between Israelis over the character of their state and the values they believe should guide it.
Monday’s vote on part of the legislation is just the first of three readings required for parliamentary approval. While that process is expected to take months, the vote is a sign of the coalition’s determination to barrel ahead and seen by many as an act of bad faith.
Israel’s figurehead president has urged the government to freeze the legislation and seek a compromise with the opposition. Leaders in the booming tech sector have warned that weakening the judiciary could drive away investors. Tens of thousands of Israelis have been protesting in Tel Aviv and other cities each week.
Last week, some 100,000 people demonstrated outside the Knesset as a committee granted initial approval to the plan. It was the largest protest in the city in years.
The overhaul has prompted otherwise stoic former security chiefs to speak out, and even warn of civil war. In a sign of the rising emotions, a group of army veterans in their 60s and 70s stole a decommissioned tank from a war memorial site and draped it with Israel’s declaration of independence before being stopped by police.

The plan has even sparked rare warnings from the US, Israel’s chief international ally.
US Ambassador Tom Nides told a podcast over the weekend that Israel should “pump the brakes” on the legislation and seek a consensus on reform that would protect Israel’s democratic institutions.
His comments drew angry responses from Netanyahu allies, telling Nides to stay out of Israel’s internal affairs.
Speaking to his Cabinet on Sunday, Netanyahu dismissed suggestions that Israel’s democracy was under threat. “Israel was and will remain a strong and vibrant democracy,” he said.
While Israel has long boasted of its democratic credentials, critics say that claim is tainted by the country’s West Bank occupation and the treatment of its own Palestinian minority.
Israel’s Palestinian citizens — a minority that has the most to lose by the legal overhaul — have largely sat out the protests, in part because of discrimination they suffer at home and because of Israel’s 55-year military occupation over their Palestinian brethren in the West Bank. Jewish settlers in the West Bank can vote in Israeli elections and are generally protected by Israeli laws, while Palestinians in the same territory are subject to military rule and cannot vote.
Monday’s parliamentary votes seek to grant the government more power over who becomes a judge. Today, a selection committee is made up of politicians, judges and lawyers — a system that proponents say promotes consensus.
The new system would give coalition lawmakers control over the appointments. Critics fear that judges will be appointed based on their loyalty to the government or prime minister.
“This is dramatic,” said Yaniv Roznai, co-director of the Rubinstein Center for Constitutional Challenges at Reichman University north of Tel Aviv. “If you take control of the court, then it’s all over. You can make any change you want.”
A second change would bar the Supreme Court from overturning what are known as “basic laws,” pieces of legislation that stand in for a constitution, which Israel does not have. Critics say that legislators will be able to dub any law a basic law, removing judicial oversight over controversial legislation.
Also planned are proposals that would give parliament the power to overturn Supreme Court rulings and control the appointment of government legal advisers. The advisers currently are professional civil servants, and critics say the new system would politicize government ministries.
Critics also fear the overhaul will grant Netanyahu an escape route from his legal woes. Netanyahu denies wrongdoing and says he is the victim of a biased judicial system on a witch hunt against him.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 22 Feb 2023 08:33

Looks like Israel wants to break out of their version of the Collegium system!

Monday’s parliamentary votes seek to grant the government more power over who becomes a judge. Today, a selection committee is made up of politicians, judges, and lawyers — a system that proponents say promotes consensus.

{India its worse. Onmle 4 SC judges called Collegium decide who can be a judge.}

The new system would give coalition lawmakers control over the appointments. Critics fear that judges will be appointed based on their loyalty to the government or prime minister.

“This is dramatic,” said Yaniv Roznai, co-director of the Rubinstein Center for Constitutional Challenges at Reichman University north of Tel Aviv. “If you take control of the court, then it’s all over. You can make any change you want.”

A second change would bar the Supreme Court from overturning what are known as “basic laws,” pieces of legislation that stand in for a constitution, which Israel does not have. Critics say that legislators will be able to dub any law a basic law, removing judicial oversight over controversial legislation.
{So govt doesnt want SC to change the basic laws. Looks like a preventive measure against woke judges.}

Also planned are proposals that would give parliament the power to overturn Supreme Court rulings and control the appointment of government legal advisers. The advisers currently are professional civil servants, and critics say the new system would politicize government ministries.
{Tyranny of the Bureaucracy of Yes minister type.}

And what has the US ambassador got to say here?

US Ambassador Tom Nides told a podcast over the weekend that Israel should “pump the brakes” on the legislation and seek a consensus on reform that would protect Israel’s democratic institutions.
His comments drew angry responses from Netanyahu allies, telling Nides to stay out of Israel’s internal affairs.

Using George Soros words in effect!!!
Biden Admin is Soros henchmen or vice versa

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 02 Mar 2023 02:28

US slams Israeli minister’s ‘disgusting’ comments about Palestinian village
The minister said the Israeli state should wipe out the village of Huwara.

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/midd ... inian-vill

slowly but for sure US is moviing away from Israel!

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 02 Mar 2023 02:31

US keen to know the source of Uranium Iran allegedly has purified to weapon category

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/midd ... day-Report

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 10 Mar 2023 02:10

Tehran is close to attaining nuclear weapons as well as ballistic missiles capable of hitting the heart of Europe https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/0 ... tain-west/

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 10 Mar 2023 02:11

Bin Salman announces new orders to restrict Ramadan in #SaudiArabia:

- No loudspeakers
- No broadcast of prayers
- No itikaf without ID (state surveillance on the 'zealous')
- Keep prayers short
- No collecting donations
- No kids in mosques for prayers
- No iftar inside mosques

https://twitter.com/SALHACHIMI/status/1 ... 38656?s=20

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 11 Mar 2023 01:15

hahakaar in WH regarding how China pulled it under US's nose

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 11 Mar 2023 01:36

IndraD wrote:

hahakaar in WH regarding how China pulled it under US's nose

Let me explain with two artifacts.

What is the WH official pronoun? He/Him/She/They/Them/It/S*it.

drnayar · Post by **drnayar** » 11 Mar 2023 02:31

https://www.npr.org/2023/03/10/11625622 ... a-analysis

Regional rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran announced on Friday they are restoring full diplomatic relations in a deal brokered by China, a move that could reduce tensions in the region and asserts China's growing influence in the Gulf.

The agreement paves the way for Saudi Arabia and Iran to reopen their embassies and diplomatic missions within the coming two months. It also revives accords on security cooperation and trade and investment.

or how China makes inroads into w asia with a washington preoccupied in ukrene

drnayar · Post by **drnayar** » 11 Mar 2023 02:36

MeshaVishwas wrote:Iran Nuclear Inspectors Detect Uranium Enriched to 84% Purity- Bloomberg

one word. : Russia . Not just Iran but China as well., tons of HeU enough to build hundreds of fission weapons., and in case of china for reprocessing to plu

Russia has unofficially cancelled the nuclear NPT

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 11 Mar 2023 08:29

It’s truly a historical moment. We are seeing the end of Pax Americana and rise of China.

Russia has again proven to be the graveyard of empires.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 11 Mar 2023 10:42

vimal wrote:It’s truly a historical moment. We are seeing the end of Pax Americana and rise of China.

Russia has again proven to be the graveyard of empires.

Not yet. If the US and Euros make good with Russia, China will be a bonsai garden. There is still time.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 11 Mar 2023 15:59

EU-Russia is impossible though every day is a long day! EU Russia relations are estranged beyond repair for now, this is the only goal Nuland has succeeded in, throttling & gutting EU. destroying Germany.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 11 Mar 2023 16:37

The handshake is nothing less than dramatic no doubt, but this is only superficial. Let them get down to the brasstacks. There are far more irreconcilable differences between KSA & Iran than between KSA & Israel.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 11 Mar 2023 16:41

Vayutuvan wrote: Not yet. If the US and Euros make good with Russia, China will be a bonsai garden. There is still time.

Neo cons have gone out of their way to insure the Russians have to be allied with the PRC.

Neutrality WRT the PRC is no longer on the table.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 11 Mar 2023 16:57

Ending Islamophobia a prerequisite for world peace, Saudi envoy tells UN

Mohammed Alateek, the Kingdom’s deputy permanent representative to the UN was speaking at a high-level UN General Assembly event ahead of the first International Day to Combat Islamophobia, on March 15.

The UN event was organized by Pakistan, which currently holds the rotating presidency of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation

https://www.arabnews.com/node/2266391/world

Wow, a committee chaired by Pakistan on human rights of Muslims in present world. What about human rights of minorities like Hindus in Pakistan, do they have mirror in these houses?

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 11 Mar 2023 17:00

Is this the end of Saudi-Iranian tensions?
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2266451

Inevitably, armchair experts in the US and Europe will miss the bigger picture, focus on China’s role, and question why the US was excluded. I don’t believe that exclusion was indicative of a lack of trust; America remains the most important and steadfast of Saudi strategic allies. Rather it is in the nature of these negotiations that to succeed they must be shrouded in secrecy and conducted through mediators accepted by both parties as fair, without bias or conflict of interest. China fits that bill perfectly; it has good relations with both countries, and unlike the US and most of Europe has no history of regional aggression or colonialism. Indeed, as Saudi Arabia’s leading oil customer (1.75 million barrels a day), China has an interest in ensuring the safe flow of energy by seeing this agreement through.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 11 Mar 2023 17:09

SSridhar wrote:The handshake is nothing less than dramatic no doubt, but this is only superficial. Let them get down to the brasstacks. There are far more irreconcilable differences between KSA & Iran than between KSA & Israel.

wasn't this agreement signed in peking....during its ceremonial national people’s congress where xi was crowned emperor for life

completely cutting out the amerikis, and the saudis are OK with it..

this is not a situation that anyone in the west would have ever predicted and yet here we are with this new situation staring us in the face. The oil blocks are consolidating and a bigger cartel may be in the offing.

It's not about the differences but it is certainly more about the finding of the common ground and building on it

the deal represents a major diplomatic victory for the cheenis

why does it feel like the amerikis are being set up by forces that have taken over the biden govt, made them abandon afghanistan, and withdraw from the strategic region of the gulf and precipitate a crisis in ukr that has poisoned the whole of europe and majorly destabilized the region leading to lasting damage of the ameriki's geopolitical status...

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 11 Mar 2023 17:13

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/wor ... 470199.cms Israel is undergoing colour revolution with foot, kalesh & grihyuddh, latest victim military division over Netanyahu

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 11 Mar 2023 17:29

^ Soros and co stroke again . I was looking at the videos of the protestors . The use of tents etc is very similar to farmer protest in India . Also the brand of tents seem same . The indian protestors were provided with primus stove to cook meals during protest . Looks like the same in Israel .

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 11 Mar 2023 18:10

drnayar wrote:https://www.npr.org/2023/03/10/11625622 ... a-analysis

Regional rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran announced on Friday they are restoring full diplomatic relations in a deal brokered by China, a move that could reduce tensions in the region and asserts China's growing influence in the Gulf.

The agreement paves the way for Saudi Arabia and Iran to reopen their embassies and diplomatic missions within the coming two months. It also revives accords on security cooperation and trade and investment.

or how China makes inroads into w asia with a washington preoccupied in ukrene

Predicted this but in a diff variation couple years back.

Russia would do it but another SCO leadership country in this case China has done it.

This is a very critical step in unhooking the Saudis from US security umbrella.

The Saudis aren't stupid to completely let go of US but it will give them more wiggle room in adopting a partial non-dollar oil invoicing system.

Could be BRICS currency along with NDB performing functions of world bank and IMF.

Euro or SDR may not be needed now.

sanjayc · Post by **sanjayc** » 11 Mar 2023 18:38

IndraD wrote:Ending Islamophobia a prerequisite for world peace, Saudi envoy tells UN
Mohammed Alateek, the Kingdom’s deputy permanent representative to the UN was speaking at a high-level UN General Assembly event ahead of the first International Day to Combat Islamophobia, on March 15.

The UN event was organized by Pakistan, which currently holds the rotating presidency of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2266391/world

Wow, a committee chaired by Pakistan on human rights of Muslims in present world. What about human rights of minorities like Hindus in Pakistan, do they have mirror in these houses?

It is actually ending the phobia of Abrahamic faiths against non-believers, that is a prerequisite for world peace. Islamophobia or Christian phobia is legitimate till their holy books continue to carry hate verses calling for extermination of non-believers

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 11 Mar 2023 23:52

AFAIK, the Russian Embassy in Washington DC and the US Embassy in Moscow are still open.

Resumption of diplomatic relations Saudi/Iran is no doubt a major step forward, but it might not mean much more than the above.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 12 Mar 2023 02:25

China-brokered talks help Saudi Arabia, Iran to renew ties after 7-year rift: What it means for the world
https://indianexpress.com/article/expla ... d-8490886/

China’s desire to be a global diplomatic power
The United States has for a long time wielded great influence in West Asia. It has been the predominant global power that has had influence over geopolitics in the conflict-ridden region. However, China’s role as peace broker is yet another sign of changing currents in the region. China has historically maintained ties with both countries and the latest deal points to China’s growing political and economic clout in the region, The New York Times reported.

“China wants stability in the region, since they get more than 40 per cent of their energy from the Gulf, and tension between the two (Iran and Saudi Arabia) threatens their interests,” Jonathan Fulton, a nonresident senior fellow for Middle East programs at the Atlantic Council in Washington, told The New York Times.
Daniel Rusel, a top US diplomat during Barack Obama’s presidency, told Reuters that it was unusual for China to act on its own to help broker a diplomatic deal in a dispute to which it was not a party. Thus, this move shows China’s desire to play a bigger diplomatic role on the world stage.

“The question is, whether this is the shape of things to come?” Russell said. “Could it be a precursor to a Chinese mediation effort between Russia and Ukraine when Xi visits Moscow?”

Concerns for the United States
Crucially, this deal and China brokering it, does not portend well for the United States.

“The drawback is that at a time when Washington and Western partners are increasing pressure against the Islamic Republic … Tehran will believe it can break its isolation and, given the Chinese role, draw on major-power cover,” Naysan Rafati, senior Iran analyst at International Crisis Group, told Reuters.

Mark Dubowitz, the chief executive of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington-based think tank that supports tough policies toward Iran and China, told The New York Times that the deal could potentially be a “lose-lose” for the US. He said it showed that Saudi Arabia lacks trust in Washington, that Iran could peel away U.S. allies to ease its isolation and that China “is becoming the major-domo of Middle Eastern power politics,” The New York Times reported.

However, other observers are less pessimistic. Trita Parsi, an executive vice president of the Quincy Institute, a Washington group that supports U.S. restraint overseas, told The New York Times, “While many in Washington will view China’s emerging role as a mediator in the Middle East as a threat, the reality is that a more stable Middle East where the Iranians and Saudis aren’t at each other’s throats also benefits the United States.”

Thus far, the United States itself has been restrained in its response, dismissing any suggestions that China has overtaken it as West Asia’s predominant power while overtly “supporting any effort to de-escalate tensions in the region”.

Israel: This new deal has potentially scuppered Israel’s diplomatic strategy in the region as domestic turmoil has engulfed the country.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 12 Mar 2023 08:08

chetak wrote:wasn't this agreement signed in peking....during its ceremonial national people’s congress where xi was crowned emperor for life

completely cutting out the amerikis, and the saudis are OK with it...

That was not my imputation.

The 'irreconcilable differences' pertain to Islam. MBS has gone too far and too fast already with reforms within his country. He is living on the edge. The Saudi society hasn't moved (and will not move) at the same pace as MBS. There is a serious backlash against him waiting to happen. Any perceived settlement with Shia Iran would add to societal anger.

However, if we want to gloat over the apparent fact that the Chinese are one-up on the US, that is an entirely different matter though I am totally averse to any form of Chinese 'victory' from an Indian PoV.

yensoy · Post by **yensoy** » 12 Mar 2023 09:22

^^^^ Sir, I don't think MBS is doing all this from the goodness of his heart. He knows he has to modernize otherwise it's game over for Saudis and they will be no different from Syria and Iraq in an era of dwindling earnings from oil and a large population to support. Society's perceptions can be reshaped by the same state support wahabis who can be incentivized to gloss over the ideological changes.

As for China vs US, I think I will say that this kind of action ensures that the world is not unipolar and there is "healthy competition" amongst the powers. Competition keeps the system honest and prevents the accumulation of too much power.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 12 Mar 2023 11:13

yensoy wrote:^^^^ Sir, I don't think MBS is doing all this from the goodness of his heart. He knows he has to modernize otherwise it's game over for Saudis and they will be no different from Syria and Iraq in an era of dwindling earnings from oil and a large population to support. Society's perceptions can be reshaped by the same state support wahabis who can be incentivized to gloss over the ideological changes.

Yes sir, I know that very intimately. However, there is a significant 'deep state' that doesn't want to modernize and that group has been put under some sort of control for the time being, breaking the contract that was reached between Al Saud & Al Wahhab. My surmise is that such an enforced lid would give way at some point.

As for China vs US, I think I will say that this kind of action ensures that the world is not unipolar and there is "healthy competition" amongst the powers. Competition keeps the system honest and prevents the accumulation of too much power.

That the world is no longer unipolar has been well established for quite some time. Even the Americans and its American alliance partners realize that. QUAD is an outcome of that realization. IR has never been and can never be honest, let's banish that thought. Accumulation of power is the 'realist' instinct of all nations, including India. While there can be no two opinion about reducing the extraordinary power of the US, the transfer of such power to China is bothersome for India.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 12 Mar 2023 13:37

SSridhar wrote:
chetak wrote:wasn't this agreement signed in peking....during its ceremonial national people’s congress where xi was crowned emperor for life

completely cutting out the amerikis, and the saudis are OK with it...
That was not my imputation.

The 'irreconcilable differences' pertain to Islam. MBS has gone too far and too fast already with reforms within his country. He is living on the edge. The Saudi society hasn't moved (and will not move) at the same pace as MBS. There is a serious backlash against him waiting to happen. Any perceived settlement with Shia Iran would add to societal anger.

However, if we want to gloat over the apparent fact that the Chinese are one-up on the US, that is an entirely different matter though I am totally averse to any form of Chinese 'victory' from an Indian PoV.

MBS hasn't changed tactics but merely modified his strategy.

He is intent on cleaning his own house and making it safe, focussing exclusively on a saudi future free of jehadi fear.

He has cleverly shifted the mullah operations to countries like India, paki, beediland and africa where the gulf states now fund the jehadi paradigm at minimal social costs to themselves but at the same time use the wahabis to set fire to the Indian continent to subvert and control.

EU is almost gone into jehadi hands, just like the UK has been consumed, all because the commies wilfully let it happen for a few votes.

These foolish, uncontrolled, and now almost unstoppable immigration policies have almost killed the britshits society and their so called bulldog spirit.

This global narrative is also from where the major opposition is coming from, to stop the Indian UCC and the CAA.

With oil fast running out, the eyeraabs need control over fertile lands to produce food for themselves without threat of food sources being cut off.

The greedy and venal eyeraabs know that they have no friends anywhere in the world because of what they vengefully did to others during the various oil crises.

Foolish words like "forgiveness" and "tolerance" are used only to subvert the foolish sanatanis.

No one else in the world subscribes to such utter rubbish

These guys have already leased humongously large tracts of land on different continents in which they are already and exclusively growing food for themselves.

They are doing exactly what the colonial britshits did three centuries ago. Same end but different means. But for these desert rats, time and money is fast running out hence the urgency to lock in their options

These guys are focussed on India, africa, ukr, and brazil etc, EXACTLY like the amerikis, the cheeni and countries in europe are focussed and they are all intent on exclusively controlling these huge resources.

MBS is a liberal front man, a masked show piece, with an acceptable visage. the venal eyeraab behind the mask is not too far away.

His actions so far are all sharia compliant. He has only crossed the mullah mandated fulminations. The core remains untouched and that should tell us something about where he is coming from and where he might be going

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 12 Mar 2023 13:48

+1

Would just change one word at the end of the second paragraph- jihadi ~~fear~~ coup

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 12 Mar 2023 14:01

Manish_P wrote:+1

Would just change one word at the end of the second paragraph- jihadi ~~fear~~ coup

Manish ji,

Where did shaheenbagh originate from, the funding, the toolkits (global and local) and the sleeper cells and the willing help provided by the paapis, who, like everyone already knows, really do like their money.

using a catchall phrase like "gulf" hides far more than it reveals.

obfuscations like "businessman" "NGO" to point to jehadi supporters in the "gelf" are self serving and diversionary.

In the "gelf", there is one leader who runs the pack.

जैसा राजा वैसी प्रजा no....

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 12 Mar 2023 15:04

I agree, Chetak ji

My point was that the one thing which scares the gelf sultans more than anything, even jehadi activity in their court yards, is getting halaled by them.

The backers could be uncle's, cousins - typically with external (western) backing.

For all his bravado thinking Cheen has his back, he knows that the Yanks can make a Gaddafi, if not a Saddam, of him if they want to...

ricky_v · Post by **ricky_v** » 13 Mar 2023 18:09

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/n ... /#Wechsler
an article containing the viewpoint of 10+ region watchers
1.

Yesterday, China promised its interests in the region were only economic and it did not want to be a major political player; today China will promise that it only wants diplomatic influence, not a regional military presence. The world should have never believed yesterday’s promises and it certainly shouldn’t believe today’s.

It would not be surprising if the next announcement would be a renewal of US-Iranian discussions on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), once again brokered by China. While I remain skeptical of whether such a deal is likely (or even advisable) in current circumstances, such an announcement would be welcome in Washington yet seen in Jerusalem as diminishing the US-Israeli deterrence against Iran.

i am very confident that the recent us led nato declaration of hemming and hawing vis-a-vis russia and the credibility and accountability of its words have been enshrined in gold somewhere, i believe all nations to be very open and trusting of the us embrace moving forwards, even seeking it out on their own volition

2.

The broad contention in the Middle East, and by many in the United States, is that China only has a passive economic interest in the region and is content to simply be a free rider on US security guarantees. Having just yesterday concluded a conference on China-MENA ties in Doha, I can vouch that this theme was abundant as part of the experts’ views here. But economic and commercial ties often give way to political engagement, which eventually can lead to intelligence and security cooperation. We may now be seeing the emergence of China’s political role in the region and it should be a warning to US policymakers: Leave the Middle East and abandon ties with sometimes frustrating, even barbarous, but long-standing allies, and you’ll simply be leaving a vacuum for China to fill.

the long-standing us tradition of treating allies as equal

3.

The report that Saudi Arabia has offered Washington terms for the normalization of relations with Israel is something that should be the focus of US diplomacy right now. It may be that Riyadh’s terms are not something that Washington will be able to meet, but the announcement of China’s involvement in restoring Saudi-Iranian diplomatic ties shows that Middle East diplomacy is alive and well—and does not always go through Washington.

4.

When that happens, it will be a potent reminder to Riyadh that Beijing, for all its economic and now diplomatic influence, is an unreliable partner to ensure the Kingdom’s security. The Saudis may hope that their turn to China gives them leverage in demanding more weapons, security guarantees, and civil nuclear technology from the United States—packaged as compensation for a normalization deal with Israel. But their need for US support will not diminish and will require them to demonstrate to a skeptical administration, Congress, and American public that they are not turning to align their interests with China more than with the United States.

5.

The obvious contrast is the United States, which has no positive leverage in Tehran; China’s got a stick but it uses the economic and development-focused carrots, while the United States just brings the stick.

6.

For Saudi Arabia and Iran, China’s ostensible commitment to the “non-interference” principle and its “non-alignment” regional policy attached great credibility to its position as a broker. To be clear, both countries seem united in their grievances towards the Biden administration, albeit at different levels.

7.

The sixth talks were aimed to resume just as mass anti-government protests kicked off in Iran prompted by the murder of Mahsa Jina Amini in September 2022. The talks were reportedly halted due to Iranian diaspora satellite channel Iran International’s coverage of the protests, which the clerical establishment believes is Saudi-funded and responsible for fomenting unrest across the country for the past five months. TheGuardian reported in 2018 that the outlet—nicknamed by some Iranians as “Saudi International”—is funded by a company owned by a Saudi businessman with close ties to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. However, according to the Associated Press, the owner of the channel, Voltant Media, is no longer owned by a Saudi national.

Some Iranians are wondering how the resumption of bilateral ties will impact Iran International. Since October 2022, the Persian language outlet, along with BBC Persian, has been sanctioned by Tehran over baseless accusations of “support of terrorism” and “incitement of riots” for its rolling coverage of the protests, and even the Iranian intelligence minister referred to the channel as a “terrorist organization” that would be dealt with.

One Iran-based journalist, without providing any evidence (and whose tweet was shared on an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Telegram channel), tweeted that Riyadh committed to not fomenting tensions via the Persian-language satellite channel. This could well have been one of Iran’s conditions to resume relations.

8.

The Saudis are making hefty demands in exchange for normalization—including security guarantees and civil nuclear technology—and the United States has thus far offered no indication that it is willing to meet a price tag this high without significant changes from Saudi Arabia. The Saudis know that. So they are playing several hands at once

9.

One immediate impact of China’s role in normalizing Saudi-Iranian relations may be to complicate America’s hopes for another “Abraham Accord” that normalizes Saudi-Israeli relations. This will only further the image of declining US influence in the Middle East. Still, the United States may actually benefit by the restoration of Saudi-Iranian ties (whatever China’s role in bringing them about) if this improves the chances for resolving or at least ameliorating Saudi-Iranian differences in Yemen, Iraq, and elsewhere. Israel may even benefit if Saudi Arabia is now in a better position to serve as an intermediary between Tehran and Jerusalem.

10.

A second point related to this rapprochement may be Iran’s concerns about the diaspora-led London-based news station Iran International. It is presumably funded by Saudi Arabia and has been on the forefront of the opposition to the regime. It has a wide viewership inside Iran and among the diaspora. Aware of its impact, the Iranian regime threatened the station, so much so that Iran International had to move its headquarters from London to Washington. Reining in the station’s funding is a top concern of the regime.

Third, Muslim countries have been surprisingly silent in the Mahsa revolution—“women, life, freedom”—except for a few Turkish and Tunisian non-governmental organizations. Being here at the Commission on the Status of Women at the United Nations in New York, I hear from Middle East and North Africa feminists and activists that with their countries’ growing dependence on Saudi financial support, they have been given a quiet message to be careful in their support of the Iranian women’s movement. To get Saudi help to dampen the resonance and support for the Mahsa movement among Muslim countries would be helpful to Tehran.

11.

Unfortunately, Washington’s credibility as a peacemaker in the region has been compromised by its perceived unreliability and tendency to take sides in conflicts, such as in Yemen and Syria. In contrast, China is seen as a flexible mediator that avoids taking sides.

If this trend continues, more regional actors may turn to China as a mediator and trust it more than the United States. This development is positive for a region in need of increased diplomacy and dialogue between traditional rivals.

12.

In a way, the Chinese mediation may be considered as a complementary move to the so-called “peace plan,” or more accurately the “position paper,” of Beijing on the Ukrainian war. The striking feature of course is that China and Global South powers do not need anymore to rely on some action from the West. In that sense, China is following the script that Russia itself was the first to write by organizing through the Astana Process a cooperation with Turkey and Iran on managing the Syrian crisis.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 16 Mar 2023 02:13

Saudi-Iranian Détente Is a Wake-Up Call for America
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/14/sa ... ed-states/

It also highlights how China is attempting to present itself as a force for peace in the world, a mantle that the United States has largely abandoned in recent years.

Reduced tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran is a positive development that reduces the risk of a serious clash in a strategic region. This new détente is to be welcomed, therefore, even if Beijing gets some of the credit. The proper U.S. response is not to bemoan the outcome; it is to show that it can do as much or more to create a more peaceful world

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 16 Mar 2023 02:26

^^ US can create a more peaceful world

What do these people smoke ?

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 16 Mar 2023 02:40

in nyt there was an article like Iran Saudi bonhomie won't last no one understands them better than US

drnayar · Post by **drnayar** » 16 Mar 2023 03:34

IndraD wrote:in nyt there was an article like Iran Saudi bonhomie won't last no one understands them better than US

Shared interests are what matter unless unkil goes at one with the stick

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 16 Mar 2023 03:57

In 2021 Russia and Saudi Arabia signed military cooperation.

Oct 17, 2022:

Senator raises alarm Saudis could share US defense technology with Russia

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 16 Mar 2023 18:37

Rupee-Dirham trade deal with the UAE in final run

https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation ... 50016.html

The two countries currently use the US dollar to settle payments. The replacement of the dollar with local currencies will result in savings on account of foreign currency conversion fees and facilitate an easier flow of capital, including remittances. It would also help India save precious foreign exchange

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 17 Mar 2023 00:14

Iran agrees to stop arming Houthis in Yemen as part of deal with Saudi Arabia – Wall Street Journal report

https://www.arabnews.com/node/2269766/middle-east