West Asia News and Discussions

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
habal
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6883
Joined: 24 Dec 2009 18:46

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby habal » 08 Jan 2020 21:53

so what is the source for he came to visit militia.
please do not give american sources or media, they are not credible.

elijah magnier is a lebanese journalist who covers mid-east esp Iraq & Syria is source of above.

John
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2405
Joined: 03 Feb 2001 12:31

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby John » 08 Jan 2020 21:59

habal wrote:so what is the source for he came to visit militia.
please do not give american sources or media, they are not credible.

elijah magnier is a lebanese journalist who covers mid-east esp Iraq & Syria is source of above.

Yes definitely he is the best source :rotfl: I give up. Anyway after the incident CNN (which is not exactly pro Trump and has been questioning the narrative the strikes deterred an attack) had a reporter who confirmed that Iraqi officials have acknowledged he was heading to the militia base to discuss the recent events.

Peregrine
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8441
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

West Asia News and Discussions

Postby Peregrine » 08 Jan 2020 22:00

Ballistic missiles, deadlydrones, a web of militias: How Iran plans to confront US – Reuters

DUBAI: Iran's launching of more than a dozen missiles at American-led forces in Iraq on Wednesday came after years of preparing for a confrontation with its superpower foe, whose forces are vastly larger and more advanced.

The Gulf country has more than 500,000 active-duty personnel, including 125,000 members of its elite Revolutionary Guards, according to a report last year by the International Institute for Strategic Studies. But international sanctions and restrictions on Iran on Tuesday night fired missiles on at least two Iraqi air bases hosting US-led coalition forces. arms imports have made it hard for Iran to develop or buy more sophisticated weaponry.

To compensate for the imbalance, Iran has developed "asymmetrical" responses - ballistic missiles, deadly drones and a web of militia allies in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen, among other things - with the aim of being able to inflict pain while avoiding the traditional battlefield.

"From a conventional military perspective they would get absolutely hammered," said a British former military commander who asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the matter. "Their conventional military is very, very sparse and quite old and quite out of date. They've spent all their money on asymmetric attack capabilities. In that regard they're very well prepared."

Until Wednesday, the strategy had deterred a direct conflict with the US as tensions spiked since Washington quit a multi-lateral nuclear deal in 2018 and re-imposed sanctions. Gulf rival Saudi Arabia recently witnessed the damage that missile and drone assaults can cause, after a strike on its oil facilities last year briefly halved production and knocked out 5% of global crude supply. Riyadh and Washington blamed Iran for the attack, a charge Tehran denied.

Iran has built the largest stockpile of ballistic missiles in the Middle East. Some are based on the older, widely used "Scud" designs, with a range of at least 750km (466 miles). Others, based on the North Korean No Dong, can reach up to 2,000km, within reach of Israel or southeast Europe, according to a US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) report last year.

The Revolutionary Guards fields a fleet of missile-armed speedboats and midget submarines it can deploy against US military ships or commercial tankers to disrupt the flow of oil in Gulf waters, where Washington says Tehran attacked six tankers last year.

"If you look at ships, tanks, jet fighters, Iran looks very weak. But if you're looking at antiship missiles, ballistic missiles, UAVs and things like that then it looks a lot more capable," said Jeremy Binnie, Middle East and Africa editor for Jane's Defence Weekly.

Iran's fleet of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) can be used for surveillance or armed with explosives, according to military experts.

"Iran in the Persian Gulf doesn't really need to have big ships, not necessarily frigates and destroyers. Speedboats, gun boats, missile boats can do the job," said Hossein Aryan, a military analyst who served 18 years in Iran's navy before and after the 1979 Islamic revolution.

Major-General Qassim Suleimani, whose killing in a US drone strike in Baghdad last week sparked the Iranian retaliation on Wednesday, was the head of the Revolutionary Guards Quds Force. The group handled clandestine operations outside Iran, working closely with allied military forces and militias in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.

Iran's leaders have promised harsh reprisals over the death of Soleimani, who was a national hero to many Iranians but considered a dangerous villain by Western governments.

He was buried in Iran on Tuesday after tens of thousands mourned him in a ceremony led by Iran's supreme leader.

US officials have said Soleimani was killed because intelligence indicated forces under his command planned attacks on US targets in the region, although they have provided no evidence.

Democrats in the US Congress and some of the party's presidential contenders warned that the escalating conflict could spark a wider war in the Middle East.

Lebanon's Hezbollah, along with a handful of the Iraqi militias closely allied with Iran, have already pledged to take revenge against American forces for Soleimani's death.

More than 5,000 US troops are in Iraq along with other foreign forces as part of a coalition that has trained and supported Iraqi security forces against the threat of Islamic State militants.

American troops are also stationed at bases in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, which hosts Al-Udeid air base, the largest US military facility in the region. Bahrain is headquarters of the US Navy's Fifth Fleet.

Cheers Image

habal
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6883
Joined: 24 Dec 2009 18:46

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby habal » 08 Jan 2020 22:03

John wrote:
habal wrote:so what is the source for he came to visit militia.
please do not give american sources or media, they are not credible.

elijah magnier is a lebanese journalist who covers mid-east esp Iraq & Syria is source of above.

Yes definitely he is the best source :rotfl: I give up. Anyway after the incident CNN (which is not exactly pro Trump and has been questioning the narrative the strikes deterred an attack) had a reporter who confirmed that Iraqi officials have acknowledged he was heading to the militia base to discuss the recent events.


he is a very good source. Just that you don't happen to know him. He has very good lebanese sources. All through the syrian war, he had a very good record. 100% better record than BBC CNN, ABC, NBC, CNBC et al. Now that's saying something isn't it ! :mrgreen:

vinod
BRFite
Posts: 742
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby vinod » 08 Jan 2020 22:07

Peregrine wrote:Ballistic missiles, deadlydrones, a web of militias: How Iran plans to confront US – Reuters

DUBAI: Iran's launching of more than a dozen missiles at American-led forces in Iraq on Wednesday came after years of preparing for a confrontation with its superpower foe, whose forces are vastly larger and more advanced.

The Gulf country has more than 500,000 active-duty personnel, including 125,000 members of its elite Revolutionary Guards, according to a report last year by the International Institute for Strategic Studies. But international sanctions and restrictions on Iran on Tuesday night fired missiles on at least two Iraqi air bases hosting US-led coalition forces. arms imports have made it hard for Iran to develop or buy more sophisticated weaponry.

To compensate for the imbalance, Iran has developed "asymmetrical" responses - ballistic missiles, deadly drones and a web of militia allies in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen, among other things - with the aim of being able to inflict pain while avoiding the traditional battlefield.

"From a conventional military perspective they would get absolutely hammered," said a British former military commander who asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the matter. "Their conventional military is very, very sparse and quite old and quite out of date. They've spent all their money on asymmetric attack capabilities. In that regard they're very well prepared."

Until Wednesday, the strategy had deterred a direct conflict with the US as tensions spiked since Washington quit a multi-lateral nuclear deal in 2018 and re-imposed sanctions. Gulf rival Saudi Arabia recently witnessed the damage that missile and drone assaults can cause, after a strike on its oil facilities last year briefly halved production and knocked out 5% of global crude supply. Riyadh and Washington blamed Iran for the attack, a charge Tehran denied.

Iran has built the largest stockpile of ballistic missiles in the Middle East. Some are based on the older, widely used "Scud" designs, with a range of at least 750km (466 miles). Others, based on the North Korean No Dong, can reach up to 2,000km, within reach of Israel or southeast Europe, according to a US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) report last year.

The Revolutionary Guards fields a fleet of missile-armed speedboats and midget submarines it can deploy against US military ships or commercial tankers to disrupt the flow of oil in Gulf waters, where Washington says Tehran attacked six tankers last year.

"If you look at ships, tanks, jet fighters, Iran looks very weak. But if you're looking at antiship missiles, ballistic missiles, UAVs and things like that then it looks a lot more capable," said Jeremy Binnie, Middle East and Africa editor for Jane's Defence Weekly.

Iran's fleet of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) can be used for surveillance or armed with explosives, according to military experts.

"Iran in the Persian Gulf doesn't really need to have big ships, not necessarily frigates and destroyers. Speedboats, gun boats, missile boats can do the job," said Hossein Aryan, a military analyst who served 18 years in Iran's navy before and after the 1979 Islamic revolution.

Major-General Qassim Suleimani, whose killing in a US drone strike in Baghdad last week sparked the Iranian retaliation on Wednesday, was the head of the Revolutionary Guards Quds Force. The group handled clandestine operations outside Iran, working closely with allied military forces and militias in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.

Iran's leaders have promised harsh reprisals over the death of Soleimani, who was a national hero to many Iranians but considered a dangerous villain by Western governments.

He was buried in Iran on Tuesday after tens of thousands mourned him in a ceremony led by Iran's supreme leader.

US officials have said Soleimani was killed because intelligence indicated forces under his command planned attacks on US targets in the region, although they have provided no evidence.

Democrats in the US Congress and some of the party's presidential contenders warned that the escalating conflict could spark a wider war in the Middle East.

Lebanon's Hezbollah, along with a handful of the Iraqi militias closely allied with Iran, have already pledged to take revenge against American forces for Soleimani's death.

More than 5,000 US troops are in Iraq along with other foreign forces as part of a coalition that has trained and supported Iraqi security forces against the threat of Islamic State militants.

American troops are also stationed at bases in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, which hosts Al-Udeid air base, the largest US military facility in the region. Bahrain is headquarters of the US Navy's Fifth Fleet.

Cheers Image


I think Iran made a big mistake by attacking US military bases directly. Till now, Iran was winning by playing to its strength of proxy fighting and mixing up things. This direct attack on a military target from Iran means US has got Iran where it wants to be. Now, it is a matter of slow degrading of the Iranian military targets within Iran by US. This adds pressure on the Iranian govt in addition to the already existing sanctions which have started to bite.

mahadevbhu
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 81
Joined: 28 Oct 2019 19:47

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby mahadevbhu » 08 Jan 2020 22:33

Earthquake could have been a nuclear test...has that news been confirmed.

brar_w
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8837
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby brar_w » 08 Jan 2020 22:42

Imagery of damage at the base. Certainly calls into question some narratives that claim that they may have deliberately targeted base outskirts and empty fields to avoid collateral damage (at least at Al Asad). US claims they had good EW and sirens were activated at both Al Asad and Erbil well in advance. Right of launch this would have come from sats and TPY-2 in the region. Left of launch it would have come from surveillance inside Iran and from ELINT. There were some reports of CIWS been activated (though they would have been useless against this threat type) but we would probably never know what other means were available for the troops there, particularly when it came to CEW.

Image

Image
Last edited by brar_w on 08 Jan 2020 22:58, edited 1 time in total.

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 22759
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby chetak » 08 Jan 2020 22:49

habal wrote:from all accounts the ukrainian carrier was at 7000 feet when malfunction occured. And it was airborne for an hour.

most likely Iranians must have switched on their missile defence thinking that aircraft has exited the airspace.

Ukrainian airlines have excellent safety record until now with no crashes in history.


the crash happened just after take off.

Two minutes and 24 seconds elapsed between the first airborne transmission (at about 350' AAL) and the last received at FL80.


The aircraft was not airborne for an hour. It may have been at 8000 ft give or take.

8000 ft final altitude and Teheran Airport elevation 3,300 ft suggests a climb of 4,700 ft or approx 3 minutes climb @ 1800 ft/min.


The aircraft arrived on time from ukraine, night stopped at khomeni international airport and got airborne an hour late, on the return leg Takeoff seems to have been under fairly icy conditions. The delay can indicate either icy conditions or some technical fault.


Iran plane crash: Ukraine refuses to rule out Boeing 737 was shot down by missile near Tehran killing 176



Ukraine has refused to rule out that the plane that crashed in Iran and killed all 176 on board was struck by a missile.

The foreign ministry in Kyiv confirmed that everyone aboard the Boeing 737-800 flown by Ukraine International Airlines was killed after it came down shortly after it departed from Imam Khomeini International Airport in the Iranian capital of Tehran.

President Donald Trump is expected to address the crash in a press conference on the escalating US-Iran tensions at 11am EST (4pm GMT).

There were three British people on board, as well as citizens from six other countries, according to the Ukraine's Minister for Foreign Affairs Vadym Prystaiko.

Asked at a briefing in Kyiv if the plane could have been downed by a missile, Ukraine's Prime Minister Oleksiy Honcharuk refused to rule it out, but cautioned against speculation until the investigation concluded.

Initially, Ukraine's embassy in Iran said on Wednesday morning that engine failure caused the plane to crash and denied that it was terror-related or that a rocket had hit the aircraft.

But it later withdrew this statement, saying that anything was possible, and Mr Zelensky instructed Ukraine's prosecutors to open criminal proceedings over the crash.

Plane crash in pictures
Video footage by Iran's ISNA news agency purports to show the plane on fire in the seconds before it crashes into the ground, which is corroborated by Qassem Biniaz, a spokesman for Iran's Road and Transportation Ministry, who said it appeared a fire struck one of its engines.

Hassan Razaeifar, the head of air crash investigation committee, said it appeared the pilot couldn't communicate with air-traffic controllers in Tehran in the last moments of the flight and witnesses said the pilot steered the plane towards a football field to avoid a residential area..

vinod
BRFite
Posts: 742
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby vinod » 08 Jan 2020 22:52

It looks like US has drawn a line and not taking it any further.

brar_w
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8837
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby brar_w » 08 Jan 2020 22:56

vinod wrote:It looks like US has drawn a line and not taking it any further.


This is what I thought would have happened. No US loss of life. Does not appear to be any significant damage. No major US air-base, vital to US involvement in the ME, targeted (those are heavily fortified and actually have air-defenses), and Iran could possibly have shot down an airliner. This in a direct exchange for their most respected/important general being taken out. I think Trump would have taken that at the start when he decided to eliminate QS.
Last edited by brar_w on 08 Jan 2020 22:59, edited 1 time in total.

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 22759
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby chetak » 08 Jan 2020 22:58

vinod wrote:It looks like US has drawn a line and not taking it any further.


have the casualty figures of ameriki dead, if any, come out yet

If the numbers are small, there will be no further escalation but if the numbers are significant, then the US will have no option but to attack iran.

brar_w
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8837
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby brar_w » 08 Jan 2020 23:02

chetak wrote:
vinod wrote:It looks like US has drawn a line and not taking it any further.


have the casualty figures of ameriki dead, if any, come out yet

If the numbers are small, there will be no further escalation but if the numbers are significant, then the US will have no option but to attack iran.


Trump, during his address to the nation, mentioned, again, that the attack took no US life.

vinod
BRFite
Posts: 742
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby vinod » 08 Jan 2020 23:04

brar_w wrote:
chetak wrote:
have the casualty figures of ameriki dead, if any, come out yet

If the numbers are small, there will be no further escalation but if the numbers are significant, then the US will have no option but to attack iran.


Trump, during his address to the nation, mentioned, again, that the attack took no US life.


So, they must have had prior warning and probably gave the list of places to hit as well... :rotfl:

brar_w
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8837
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby brar_w » 08 Jan 2020 23:07

vinod wrote:
brar_w wrote:
Trump, during his address to the nation, mentioned, again, that the attack took no US life.


So, they must have had prior warning and probably gave the list of places to hit as well... :rotfl:


Obviously :roll:

John
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2405
Joined: 03 Feb 2001 12:31

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby John » 08 Jan 2020 23:11

brar_w wrote:
vinod wrote:
So, they must have had prior warning and probably gave the list of places to hit as well... :rotfl:


Obviously :roll:

I think they just warned the Iraqis but Iranian republican guard was originally tweeting about heavy casualty and they went silent after it fizzled. So they were definitely were expecting to hit targets.

brar_w
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8837
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby brar_w » 08 Jan 2020 23:16

John wrote:
brar_w wrote:
Obviously :roll:

I think they just warned the Iraqis but Iranian republican guard was originally tweeting about heavy casualty and they went silent after it fizzled. So they were definitely were expecting to hit targets.


The Planet Labs images clearly point to them targeting structures, and actually hitting some. There are also videos of RV's impacting inside the base. They clearly had built-up targets in mind. It is also claimed that four of those missiles (1/4 of all launched) were duds..That surely puts the argument that the aim here was to put craters in sand for internal PR consumption into question. I think they were most certainly looking to inflict some casualties..As you point out, they immediately rushed and released claimed casualties and even hours later their news agencies were still claiming 80 dead. I think long term this affects their military's credibility quite a bit..they picked the most poorly defended target in the region (out of all that housed US troops)..one that had no defenses at all (hard kill options) to deal with this threat type. Yet, they seem to have missed most vital targets despite having 10 missiles impact one air-base which is right up their in terms of most TBM's targeting one air-base/military-base at one go anywhere in the world...In the process they have probably allowed the TPY-2's operating out of Turkey to build a nice libary of the Qiam warhead with anywhere from 12-15 tracks. This will definitely call into question any future threats to Al Dafra etc which have fortified hangers and battalion sized Air Defense forces permanently deployed.
Last edited by brar_w on 08 Jan 2020 23:27, edited 1 time in total.

abhik
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2904
Joined: 02 Feb 2009 17:42

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby abhik » 08 Jan 2020 23:25

brar_w wrote:Imagery of damage at the base. Certainly calls into question some narratives that claim that they may have deliberately targeted base outskirts and empty fields to avoid collateral damage (at least at Al Asad). US claims they had good EW and sirens were activated at both Al Asad and Erbil well in advance. Right of launch this would have come from sats and TPY-2 in the region. Left of launch it would have come from surveillance inside Iran and from ELINT. There were some reports of CIWS been activated (though they would have been useless against this threat type) but we would probably never know what other means were available for the troops there, particularly when it came to CEW.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ENxOtlqXYAE ... name=large

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ENxR7-BUYAE ... name=large

Do we know of the equipment losses (helicopters etc.) at the base? Also what is "CEW"?

Looks like a pretty accurate strike, so US could move their personnel to safety as they had warning - but what about immovable assets? If the US launches an attack on "52" locations, Iran can hit back at oil industry installations etc. which will be sitting ducks (ABM/cruise missile efficacy is well known). The gelfies might actually pipedown and get orange to de escalate, they have the most to lose.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 54516
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby ramana » 08 Jan 2020 23:26

See the nice circles.
Shows that the warheads were blast type creating a spherical ball.
We are seeing the projection on the ground plane.

Can some kind soul do a math analysis of the diameter of that blast circle and can estimate the explosive amount in the warhead?

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 54516
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby ramana » 08 Jan 2020 23:28

mahadevbhu wrote:Earthquake could have been a nuclear test...has that news been confirmed.

Yes confirmed its an earthquake only.
The depth of eqk was 10 km.
That was the first thing checked.

brar_w
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8837
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby brar_w » 08 Jan 2020 23:29

abhik wrote:Do we know of the equipment losses (helicopters etc.) at the base? Also what is "CEW"?


Not yet on the former. I think the next Pentagon press conference will cover those details. CEW stands for Cyber-Electronic-Warfare. The US has been investing in left-of-launch and soft kill measures against Iranian and NoKo TBM programs for about a decade now and people as high as prior Deputy SecDefs have highlighted it in their strategy/policy talks/speeches.

https://www.c4isrnet.com/2017/05/08/joi ... e-threats/

abhik wrote:Looks like a pretty accurate strike, so US could move their personnel to safety as they had warning - but what about immovable assets? If the US launches an attack on "52" locations, Iran can hit back at oil industry installations etc. which will be sitting ducks (ABM/cruise missile efficacy is well known). The gelfies might actually pipedown and get orange to de escalate, they have the most to lose.


In my opinion, Trump is transactional and views things in a series of tit for tats. He ordered QS be eliminated along with other Iraqi leader who was valuable enough to Iran to have QS personally meet him there..In return, Iran put on a flop show that extracted little from the US and is probably barely convincing for the domestic Iranian consumption. I think he'll call it a day at least when it comes to this elevated state of affairs though posturing and geopolitics in the region will continue to play out below the surface...back to the regularly scheduled program (more sanctions etc).

Rsatchi
BRFite
Posts: 769
Joined: 04 Aug 2019 22:03

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby Rsatchi » 08 Jan 2020 23:49

John wrote:
brar_w wrote:
Obviously :roll:

I think they just warned the Iraqis but Iranian republican guard was originally tweeting about heavy casualty and they went silent after it fizzled. So they were definitely were expecting to hit targets.
https://www.dailypioneer.com/2020/top-stories/iran-supreme-leader-says--slap-in-face--delivered-to-us.html
JohnJi
Is this all optics then!!
Just like post Balakote, Napaks came-in and dropped/allowed to come and drop something near the HQ!!!
so all the 'Unwashed Jingos are Kush!!' :wink:

brar_w
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8837
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby brar_w » 09 Jan 2020 00:02

*Unverified* image of a Tor missile fragment alleged to be in close proximity to the 737 crash site..

Azim
@Azematt
A local person took this first image of a piece of water inside a Ukrainian aircraft crash near
@AshkanMonfared_
Envoy that is clearly part of the control of an M-8 missile /


Image

https://twitter.com/Azematt/status/1214967566369730561

abhik
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2904
Joined: 02 Feb 2009 17:42

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby abhik » 09 Jan 2020 00:11

brar_w wrote:The Planet Labs images clearly point to them targeting structures, and actually hitting some. There are also videos of RV's impacting inside the base. They clearly had built-up targets in mind. It is also claimed that four of those missiles (1/4 of all launched) were duds..That surely puts the argument that the aim here was to put craters in sand for internal PR consumption into question. I think they were most certainly looking to inflict some casualties..As you point out, they immediately rushed and released claimed casualties and even hours later their news agencies were still claiming 80 dead. I think long term this affects their military's credibility quite a bit..they picked the most poorly defended target in the region (out of all that housed US troops)..one that had no defenses at all (hard kill options) to deal with this threat type. Yet, they seem to have missed most vital targets despite having 10 missiles impact one air-base which is right up their in terms of most TBM's targeting one air-base/military-base at one go anywhere in the world...In the process they have probably allowed the TPY-2's operating out of Turkey to build a nice libary of the Qiam warhead with anywhere from 12-15 tracks. This will definitely call into question any future threats to Al Dafra etc which have fortified hangers and battalion sized Air Defense forces permanently deployed.

Why would they pick any heavily defended targets? Logically they would go for the softest targets that create the most destruction - they are not competing with the US on conventional warfare, they is no doubt they lose. They only have to prove the capability to destroy the Gulf countries (from where US operates) oil output and hurt the US forces enough/keep them engaged until the US public opinion does not support it anymore.

brar_w
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8837
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby brar_w » 09 Jan 2020 00:14

If you read my post again, you would realize that I was not advocating that they pick the toughest target. There choice of targets is understandable and logical. But if you end up picking soft'ish targets, launch no less than 16 Theater Ballistic Missiles at them, and then immediately go out and claim high casualties...you better have hit something meaningful and caused some sort of hard impact on life or treasure. Poor performance against a highly defended target can be attributed to XYZ. But if you choose a much easier target..you better check all your boxes in terms of planned outcome..otherwise your credibility when it comes to threats against better defended, and more vital, targets is called into question in the future..Certainly Iran does not have the conventional chops to go toe for toe with the US in the region or beyond. But what they do have is about 2500 Ballistic Missile and Cruise Missiles which is a very vital asymmetric capability that they have been building for a long time, and which the US forces in the region (and Israel) have been preparing to confront, in a kinetic regional conflict, for a long time..

Some early reports point to variants of Qiam and Fateh having been used. All they seem to have done is provided some valuable, real-world, tracking profiles and RV signatures to TPY-2's in Kürecik (particularly of Qiam variants). I'm sure there will be teams in Huntsville and elsewhere using the dozen or more tracks to fine tune their models..

Image
Last edited by brar_w on 09 Jan 2020 00:32, edited 1 time in total.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 54516
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby ramana » 09 Jan 2020 00:31

So were these F-110?

brar_w
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8837
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby brar_w » 09 Jan 2020 00:33

ramana wrote:So were these F-110?


Early imagery of some of the debris and the one photo doing the rounds of the round that did not make it to the target point to similarities with Qiam. Others have claimed Fateh used as well but no imagery seems to have nailed that yet.

John
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2405
Joined: 03 Feb 2001 12:31

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby John » 09 Jan 2020 00:35

brar_w wrote:*Unverified* image of a Tor missile fragment alleged to be in close proximity to the 737 crash site..

Azim
@Azematt
A local person took this first image of a piece of water inside a Ukrainian aircraft crash near
@AshkanMonfared_
Envoy that is clearly part of the control of an M-8 missile /


Image

https://twitter.com/Azematt/status/1214967566369730561

Yes it is a missile hit Iranians will hush it up. No idea why Ukrainian plane decided to take off given the recent event and shame on flight traffic controllers for giving the all clear.

ramana wrote:So were these F-110?


The images seem to match Fateh-100

brar_w
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8837
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby brar_w » 09 Jan 2020 00:40

Image

https://twitter.com/wslafoy/status/1214926262914994177

Joe Brazda
@JoeBra123
#Qiam has separating warhead so this would not have exploded...also you can see the inward facing exhaust steering vanes seeming to confirm this was a Qiam


Image

https://twitter.com/JoeBra123/status/12 ... 7541570565
Last edited by brar_w on 09 Jan 2020 00:45, edited 2 times in total.

Shameek
BRFite
Posts: 816
Joined: 02 Jan 2009 20:44
Location: Ionosphere

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby Shameek » 09 Jan 2020 00:44

Initial reports said that both Qiam-1 and F-110 were utilized.

Reports suggest two types of ballistic missiles were used to hit US Military bases in Ain al-Asad in western Iraq and also around Erbil in Iraqi Kurdistan.
The majority of those used are believed to be the Fateh-110, which can travel 180 miles or 300km and have a payload of around 500lb.
But reports also suggest the Qiam-1 was also used, a short-range ballistic missile produced by Iran which can travel 500 miles and carry 750lb warheads.


Link

abhik
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2904
Joined: 02 Feb 2009 17:42

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby abhik » 09 Jan 2020 00:46

Saar, I think you are taking the press release too seriously. To me they have given a calibrated response and proved the efficacy of their ballistic missiles (and their cruise missiles earlier with the Saudi refinery strike). All they need to do is demonstrate that any large scale conflagration will not be a one sided affair, to deter the enemy.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 54516
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby ramana » 09 Jan 2020 00:50

Most likely both were used.
Though using Qiam seems overkill and foolish.

5Gon says 4 missiles failed.
What were those?
I expect its the Qiam versions as they are long range and have many features that can go wrong.

I think the separating warhead versions will proliferate in Islamic world as they are more accurate and survivable presenting smaller radar cross section.

brar-w any reports of PAC-3 being used?

If any incoming were shot down, 5Gon would tom tom.

brar_w
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8837
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby brar_w » 09 Jan 2020 00:52

abhik wrote:o me they have given a calibrated response..


QS was taken out last week. Since then, 50 or more Iranians have died during his funeral, Iran launched 16 Ballistic Missiles at its neighbor and failed to inflict any meaningful damage, and may have even shot down a Ukrainian airliner killing 180 passenger and crew in the process while also threatening to level Haifa and Dubai. I think the Ayatollahs may need some re-calibration. Regime incompetence was at full display over the last week though they could have done worst - like a stealthy strike using the mighty Qaher ("Wrath").

Image
Last edited by brar_w on 09 Jan 2020 01:23, edited 4 times in total.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 54516
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby ramana » 09 Jan 2020 00:53

I concur. If Iran escalates they will be killing more of their own.

brar_w
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8837
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby brar_w » 09 Jan 2020 00:55

ramana wrote:brar-w any reports of PAC-3 being used?
.


US does not have any AD batteries or battalions in Iraq outside of the Green zone. The troops there have a CRAM system (CIWS) and soft-kill measures to overcome drones and perhaps some VSHORAD (stingers etc). One of the effects of this action could well be that the US positions AD/BMD forces in various parts of Iraq where it has troops which will be politically tricky but not impossible imho.

Lohit
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 64
Joined: 28 Feb 2019 01:03

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby Lohit » 09 Jan 2020 01:21

Some points that Trump made and some conjecture of my own (in increasing order of conjecture),

1. This round is officialy over, economic warfare will continue

2. Trump has drawn a line in the sand - Iran cant proceed with its nuclear program or killings of any US citizens else strong mil danda will follow

3. US is energy self sufficient and hence rest of the world, especially NATO (and I think under the guise of JCPOA he also hinted at Russia and China) will need to step into Middle East and subsequently global policing as US withdraws completely from ME and soon from other parts of the world. This is inline with the outlook of Trump in particular and US in general on MAGA.

4. Drawing from the point above is a change, that I feel will shape the next few decades as NATO (read European), China, Russia and other power hungry nations start a new round of colony hunting (disguised as creating beholden puppets - think Imran for China, Sisi for KSA, Al Thani for Iran etc)

European countries are regaining their colonial appetites, viz, Libya where France and Italy are fighting a proxy war to gain oil resources. As are Turkey, Russia, China etc across different parts of the world.

5. With the gradual reduction of US' footprint Russia, France, UK, Turkey and Asian players such as China, KSA and Iran will carve out their own "empires" and "spheres of influence" such as,

Turkey lording the stans and North Africa
Russia and the slav republics (what's happening in Belarus is a case in point)
France with new African colonies
Shia and Arab super states
and so forth

6. Such neo empires would necessarily lead to erosion of democracy, the virtual obsolescence of the UN and emergence of virtual rulers like we see in the case of Putin, Erdogan or Xinping. Of course Middle East dynasties, theocracies and dictatorships are already present.

This could be followed by pre-world war style alliances with megalomanic personalities on both sides. Would it then be far fetched that a regional fight becomes a global conflagaration with various super nations going at each other on their respective continents, as dictated by their alliances.

7. This will be preceded by stages of naked colonialism. Say Baluchistan being carved out of Pakistan and being handed over to the Shia super state by the Sino superstate in lieu of resources or markets

8. While far fetched, if such a world takes shape, the only way India can survive and prosper would be to proactively regain a Mauryan like national character and geographic influence (if not territorial rule).

If this is not done, again in this hypothetical scenario, a new great game aimed at the motherland, of course abetted by the jaichands who we never lack, could produce catastrophic results for the country.

9. I again feel that the period from 50s has been an outlier in terms of geopolitical stability because it had a bipolar (during Soviet existence) or uni-polar character (pax americana). From a systems perspective, the lower the number of poles the greater the stability. With an increased number of poles, turbulence will again regain historic levels as has been the case throughout history.

Apologies to the Mods for going on a long OT rant. :mrgreen:

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby UlanBatori » 09 Jan 2020 01:43

vinod wrote:It looks like US has drawn a line and not taking it any further.


UBCN right again {yawn!!!} :mrgreen:

Let us postulate now that very little of Sri Suleimani was found, to be buried. They found a human finger with a ring that was identified as his. IOW, he got a very very well-advertised sendoff. A wee bit overdone, IMO. Watch "On Her Majeshty's Secret Sarbhij" for more details.

Coincidentally the new Hole-y G-String gay bar and night club next to a halal restaurant will be opening next Mondin in LA, featuring belly-dancers and camel-racing video-games. Proprietor a distinguished looking mard with an earring in left ear and a carnation behind the right ear. Slight middle eastern accent.

UBCN. V put da C in Conspirajy

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 54516
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby ramana » 09 Jan 2020 02:01

Lohit good 5th post. Much better than many see nears.

abhik
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2904
Joined: 02 Feb 2009 17:42

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby abhik » 09 Jan 2020 02:03

Very high res satellite image of the airbase for budding OSINT analysts: https://s5.gifyu.com/images/highres.jpg

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby UlanBatori » 09 Jan 2020 02:04

Further analysis: Clearly DT's advisors read UBCN and realized the potential in taking the truly unexpected track. They **MUST** have communicated to the Iranians that the hit on QS was maybe a mistake, no intention to turn Quom to ashes etc. Accordingly the Iranian 22-missile strike was as symbolic as the 59-cruise missile strike that Trump ordered on Syria after the Douma White Helmets Chemical Attack. Equally bogus. Zero deaths. Message received and understood the Ayatollahs recognize a kindred soul who prefers bark to bite. This may be the beginning of a great friendship. With Putin embracing Erdogan, and Iraq asking Americans to leave, Trump badly needs a repressive fundamentalist ME regime to prop up.

Now elephants are going ga-ga about Trump's Home Run Speech. The *Art of the Deal.

Lohit
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 64
Joined: 28 Feb 2019 01:03

Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby Lohit » 09 Jan 2020 02:09

ramana wrote:Lohit good 5th post. Much better than many see nears.


Pranaam Garu.


Return to “Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: EswarPrakash, george, ravikr, rpartha, Sachin and 42 guests