West Asia News and Discussions

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ramana
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby ramana » 09 Jan 2020 02:18

Lets continue in Geopolitical thread.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby pravula » 09 Jan 2020 02:50

Reports of rocket attacks in Green Zone....

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby abhik » 09 Jan 2020 02:52

abhik wrote:Very high res satellite image of the airbase for budding OSINT analysts: https://s5.gifyu.com/images/highres.jpg

Going through the image, you can make out the US parts of the base which appear to be mostly walled off. The missiles targets were mostly temporary (tent) hangers and looks like they spread the love across the whole setup, getting one hit in every part of the base. If the Iranians had fire more missiles/ if they had lower failure rate/ or used cluster munitions they could have gotten almost all the air assets in the hangers or flight line.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby nam » 09 Jan 2020 03:02

You have to give it to the Iranians. They do have some pretty accurate BM.

And thank goodness, due to them now BM will not be considered the "red line" weapon.

We can now use prithvi or other conventional BM in the next round with Pak.

Thinking of which, we are seriously lacking conventional BM. Prahaar,pralay are no where in the picture. I support our service's view that they are expensive dumb bombs.. but we need some for show & awe.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby John » 09 Jan 2020 03:19


You have to give it to the Iranians. They do have some pretty accurate BM.



Given the size of base and fact a few of the missed as accurate. The CEP seems to be well over 100 meters sure they are more accurate than Saddam’s Scud but that is not saying much. These missiles cost in millions..

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby Jayram » 09 Jan 2020 03:23

brar_w wrote:*Unverified* image of a Tor missile fragment alleged to be in close proximity to the 737 crash site..

Azim
@Azematt
A local person took this first image of a piece of water inside a Ukrainian aircraft crash near
@AshkanMonfared_
Envoy that is clearly part of the control of an M-8 missile /


Image

https://twitter.com/Azematt/status/1214967566369730561

Question if the airplane was struck and flew for a few miles flaming after how did this missile fragment end up in close proximity to the crash site? Would it not be far away ? Need more hard evidence one way or the other.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby ramana » 09 Jan 2020 04:40

nam wrote:You have to give it to the Iranians. They do have some pretty accurate BM.

And thank goodness, due to them now BM will not be considered the "red line" weapon.

We can now use prithvi or other conventional BM in the next round with Pak.

Thinking of which, we are seriously lacking conventional BM. Prahaar,pralay are no where in the picture. I support our service's view that they are expensive dumb bombs.. but we need some for show & awe.


Better than plain vanilla scuds.

Look at the extra work to get here.
Separating warhead, guidance segment in the warhead.
The estimates are 650 kg payload section.
The explosive could be 30% based on the damage charitably.

IF George Fernandes was still around he would have said ping pong balls.
During the Iran-Iraq war of the cities both sides used thes missiles as weapons of terror to make the other sue for peace.
These wont if the targets are military bases.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby ramana » 09 Jan 2020 04:42

Jayram, What is possible is that Tor (SA-15) has warhead in behind the control section and not in the nose cone which is guidance, navigation and control system. Once the fuze functioned that part got separated intact.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby Gerard » 09 Jan 2020 04:51

A number of photos from Ukraine of intact forward guidance sections of the 9M330

https://armamentresearch.com/torsam-ukraine/

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby ramana » 09 Jan 2020 04:58

Gerard wrote:A number of photos from Ukraine of intact forward guidance sections of the 9M330

https://armamentresearch.com/torsam-ukraine/



In one of the links here there is a map of SA-15 launch, explosion and debris field.

based on this the comment on the Iranian site is incorrect that the plane flew a few miles if the debris was found near the crash site.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby John » 09 Jan 2020 05:15


Question if the airplane was struck and flew for a few miles flaming after how did this missile fragment end up in close proximity to the crash site? Would it not be far away ? Need more hard evidence one way or the other.


Possible it was a direct hit and got lodged in the fuselage.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby Jayram » 09 Jan 2020 05:30

Ramanagaru, John
There is at least one video apparently taken of the plane in flames for at least a minute before crashing. And given the speed of the missile it is possible that the missile fragment was lodged in the fuselage although it may be lower probability.
However given the overall coincidence of this event it may very well be what happened.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby brar_w » 09 Jan 2020 06:57

Jayram wrote:Question if the airplane was struck and flew for a few miles flaming after how did this missile fragment end up in close proximity to the crash site? Would it not be far away ? Need more hard evidence one way or the other.


No one has yet to geolocate the Tor missile round to determine how far, or how close it is to the crash site. There are a few guesses floating around but until additional views are available there is no way to determine the exact location given that picture and angle.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby UlanBatori » 09 Jan 2020 07:17

Why would a military SAM unit fire at a plane taking off from their own airport? Any White Helmets seen in the vicinity?

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby habal » 09 Jan 2020 07:58

why would a military SAM unit fire at its own helicopter ??

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby UlanBatori » 09 Jan 2020 08:00

^Oops. Actually, because someone set off air raid warnings and went to shoot-at-sight mode. In this case that may have been deliberate.
Unless of course someone said:
Abdul, let's see if this target-locking system works - let's see... there's an aiplane, not too high, should be good. And I wonder what happens if I push this red flashing button...AoA!

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby habal » 09 Jan 2020 09:19

As per this article, killing of Soleimani dovetails into US agenda of keeping region unstable and undermining cooperation between EU and Iran to culminate in an Eurasian axis where Iran, Qatar are net providers of energy to Europe to exclusion of US petrodollar. So such events to keep region unstable shall continue from US & allies in future. They will not allow a period of peace and stability to settle in middle-east. Such disruptive events will be norm with US in region.

the core of the problem is how to maintain the status of the petrodollar.

But US lost the momentum, in 2014, when they suddenly realized that Russia is not like Libya. A prime example of their arrogant ignorance. After that it has been a defeat after defeat for them, also Libya is now slipping from their hands.

They can´t stop the destruction of the petrodollar anymore, what ever they do.

From the article:
https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/ ... soleimani/

Washington would like to prevent any Eurasian integration by unleashing chaos and destruction in the region, and killing Soleimani served this purpose. The US cannot contemplate the idea of the dollar losing its status as the global reserve currency. Trump is engaging in a desperate gamble that could have disastrous consequences.

The region, in a worst-case scenario, could be engulfed in a devastating war involving multiple countries. Oil refineries could be destroyed all across the region, a quarter of the world’s oil transit could be blocked, oil prices would skyrocket ($200-$300 a barrel) and dozens of countries would be plunged into a global financial crisis. The blame would be laid squarely at Trump’s feet, ending his chances for re-election.


In my opinion, whatever they do, turns against them.
scenario:
No war: gradual peaceful Eurasian integration in ME
Major war: above scenario.

Now US is trying to balance between these two choices. My guess is that next Trump tries to find some kind of a political solution, that´s satisfies the interests of US. But that would take huge political and diplomatic skills, and we all know that US is not very skillful in these areas. That´s why they unleash chaos, using every weapon at their disposal: assassinations, bribes, color revolutions, etc.

This is a new situation for them, and that´s why they are confused. Before they could have nearly anything they wanted, by bribing and threatening, exactly like they just threatened the PM of Iraq, with a Maidan scenario, if Iraq don´t stop doing business with China.

But that don´t work anymore for them, because many nations start to realize that there´s the better alternative: Eurasia.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby hnair » 09 Jan 2020 11:50

So basically Trump patted them in the head and said "pull up your trousers and go home" and they went home to write imposition to Ukraine for downing a flight? Iran is not going to touch anything of the US with any serious value has been proven right. Even CNN, who was kind of rooting for Iran to smack Trump's trolling is visibly disappointed.

When GWBush became president, US had very visible military folks in Soddy, Koovyte, Turkey and Bahrain. Twenty years later, the american camo are very visible in Soddy, Koovyte, Bahrain, Qatar, Ethiopiea, Djibouti, Libya, Syria, Algeria, Afghanistan, Bakistan, Georgia, Ukraine, Turkey, Uzbekistan, Tadjikistan and once a while, we do find them parked in front of our letterboxes right here in India. Rest of CISMOA, logistics et al will get them parking rights inside our compound walls.

Still they are a failure and Iran/Europe is winning? We need to redefine this thing called a "winning".

It is one thing to root for an underdog like say Venezuela or Syria, who are getting unnecessarily mauled up by khan, while protecting the likes of MBS-koya, Paki jernails etc. But to claim that an aggressive competitor of India is routing US, after carefully firing missiles away from US troops, is strictly Comical Ali territory. If they are not deliberately missing the US causalities and their missiles are pretty low tech, then why are the unquestioned proliferator of the world, china, not letting them have terminal guidance or better INS? Remember cheen sold to NKorea, pakis, soddys etc, but not to Iran. Even cheen seem leery of these guys and do not sell their junk, despite these guys having more money than pakis.

I do acknowledge the prudence of Prez Putin, which this recent Bloomberg article writes about. He has been making the most logical moves yet among top 10 leaders of world and despite a small budget, is efficiently deploying his advantages in military tech with an ISRO like focus. He has come out looking good from this episode

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby Deans » 09 Jan 2020 11:56

The US, from whatever info is available, did not try to intercept any of the missiles. They would almost certainly have been an active SAM battery in all their Iraqi bases, given the state of alert after DS's death and the known capability of Iranian missiles. My guess is that radar would be analysed the flight path of the missiles and concluded that none were a threat to assets or US personnel.

For Iran, if 22 missiles were fired without injuring or damaging anything, its a huge failure. If they wanted to send a signal, they could have done it with fewer missiles. The more professional members of Iran's military must be wondering if really have a credible deterrent against the US strike.

I'm sceptical about the pic purportedly of a SAM near the crash of the Ukrainian airliner. Iranians are not in the habit of taking pics at restricted sites, like a plane crash. It is a police state and such a pic can get you the death penalty (a pic of a girl on the street can get you punished)

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby habal » 09 Jan 2020 12:32

Dino Afuera
@DinoAfuera
·
10h
"According to my source, who is very close to the Qatari royal family, Trump actually sent a message to Tehran via the emir (...) there would be de-escalation if Tehran came up with a “proportional” response.

-------------

https://consortiumnews.com/2020/01/08/p ... el-source/

PEPE ESCOBAR: Trump to De-Escalate: Intel Source

It is most unlikely Trump will escalate at this point, and this could provide him with the opportunity to leave the Middle East except for the Gulf States. Trump wants to get out,” a U.S. intelligence source says.

By Pepe Escobar
Special to Consortium News

President Donald Trump will de-escalate the crisis with Iran when he speaks to the nation at 11 a.m. Eastern time on Wednesday, a U.S. intelligence source has told me.

Last night Iran retaliated for the assassination of Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani with missile strikes on two U.S. military bases in Iraq. So far there have been no casualties reported. Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said that the ballistic missile strikes launched from Iran completed Tehran’s military action.

Judd Deere, the deputy press secretary of the White House, confirmed on Tuesday night what I had learned earlier from another source. The White House said Trump, in a phone call, thanked Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani for “Qatar’s partnership with the United States”, and they discussed Iraq and Iran.

According to my source, who is very close to the Qatari royal family, Trump actually sent a message to Tehran via the emir. The message has two layers. Trump promised sanctions would be cancelled if there were no retaliation from Tehran (something that Trump simply wouldn’t have the means to assure, considering the opposition from Capitol Hill) ; and there would be de-escalation if Tehran came up with a “proportional” response.

Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif described the Iranian missile strikes as a “proportional response”.

That may explain why Trump did not go on TV on Tuesday night in the U.S. to announce total war – as much as neocons may have been wanting it.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby hnair » 09 Jan 2020 12:57

The dead General Suleimani would have appreciated the fact that his side agreed it was a "proportionate response" to send 22 missiles helter skelter.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby NRao » 09 Jan 2020 13:14

UlanBatori wrote:Why would a military SAM unit fire at a plane taking off from their own airport? Any White Helmets seen in the vicinity?


They are programmed not to ask questions.

Shoot first.

Let the dumb humans then figure out what happened.


IF this is true, then perhaps the problem is between the military and civilians at that airport. They just did not communicate. Each was doing their job - and more than likely did it very well. But the civilians either forgot or there was no mechanism to let the military units know that a civilian plane was on its way out?

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby Y. Kanan » 09 Jan 2020 13:16

This is far from over. The Iranians rightly see this is as the final humiliation in 40 years of being picked on by everyone, from the Sunni Arabs to the Jews to the USA. I'm surprised most BR-ites are gloating when they should be empathizing with Iran. After all, we Indians know what it feels like to have horrors inflicted upon us and to be left with no option but impotent rage. This is how Iranians feel, and I can't blame them. They never really had a chance after they overthrew the Shah. Everyone piled on after that and it's been the same ever since. Iran's adventures are actually defensive in nature, saving Iraq from ISIS, pushing back a Sunni/Jew encroachment in Syria, fighting a Sunni invasion of Yemen, etc.

They (the Iranians) are important to keep the Sunni Wahabbi Bloc in check. It is the Sunni/Wahabbi types and their money that plague us at home, in Pakistan, Afghanistan, etc. This brand of Islam is not our friend and Iran was keeping them in check Isn't this widely understood at least on BR?

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby habal » 09 Jan 2020 13:24

hnair wrote:The dead General Suleimani would have appreciated the fact that his side agreed it was a "proportionate response" to send 22 missiles helter skelter.


you mean the response to a war crime was not a retaliatory war crime ?

the dead general was in Iraq on US/Saudi missive conveyed via Iraqi PM. He was not there in role of general but as a diplomat. You can't have a proportionate and equivalent response to that.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby habal » 09 Jan 2020 13:28

The killing of Russian diplomat in Istanbul didnt have proportionate reaponse.

The rape of Indian diplomat Deyyani Khobragade didn't follow with a proportionate and equivalent response.

civilized countries don't respond to criminal acts in kind.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby NRao » 09 Jan 2020 13:29

I see the recent events as two, unrelated threads:

1) The Iran, Shia, ME, etc thread, which has been well studied and understood. I regard this as a minor one, important, yet minor

2) The major one, IMHO, is the one where the UK, France, Germany, China, and Russia have been told to keep out. This to me is the one that matters and needs further study: a ME with just one master. Iran can no longer play the US vs card. That branch of logic no longer exists.

So, what exists WRT Iran?

A ) No nukes
B ) No strategic missiles


C) Very minor, but, the US will leave the region as long conditional to A and B

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby ramana » 09 Jan 2020 13:41

ramana wrote:
Gerard wrote:A number of photos from Ukraine of intact forward guidance sections of the 9M330

https://armamentresearch.com/torsam-ukraine/



In one of the links here there is a map of SA-15 launch, explosion and debris field.

based on this the comment on the Iranian site is incorrect that the plane flew a few miles if the debris was found near the crash site.


Thinking about it, this picture could be fake and from.some where else.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby tandav » 09 Jan 2020 14:16

Y. Kanan wrote:This is far from over. The Iranians rightly see this is as the final humiliation in 40 years of being picked on by everyone, from the Sunni Arabs to the Jews to the USA. I'm surprised most BR-ites are gloating when they should be empathizing with Iran. After all, we Indians know what it feels like to have horrors inflicted upon us and to be left with no option but impotent rage. This is how Iranians feel, and I can't blame them. They never really had a chance after they overthrew the Shah. Everyone piled on after that and it's been the same ever since. Iran's adventures are actually defensive in nature, saving Iraq from ISIS, pushing back a Sunni/Jew encroachment in Syria, fighting a Sunni invasion of Yemen, etc.

They (the Iranians) are important to keep the Sunni Wahabbi Bloc in check. It is the Sunni/Wahabbi types and their money that plague us at home, in Pakistan, Afghanistan, etc. This brand of Islam is not our friend and Iran was keeping them in check Isn't this widely understood at least on BR?


No block of Islam (Arab, Persian, Turkic) have apologized for the genocides committed by their forefathers in the name of Islam on Dharmic people in India and erstwhile Dharmic lands (Pakistan, Afghanistan for starters). Yes! we commiserate with the Iranians on their present conditions and realize that they have been subject to humiliation from the western world. IslamoTurkPersArab-ChristoCaucasian Wars have been bloody and mutually genocidal does not materially change the genocidal nature of IslamoTurkPersArab-DharmoIndian conflicts. I do not think anyone is gloating over this fracas. I am actually worried about this conflict rapidly escalating to a point where the Sino-Russian support to IslamoTurkPersArab bloc leads to a complete withdrawal of USA to its shores and cements Chinese dominance over Asia... we need 10 years of time to ensure we are a near peer power to China. It should be Indian Security Garantees that bring peace to ME not the Chinese

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby tandav » 09 Jan 2020 14:25

NRao wrote:
UlanBatori wrote:Why would a military SAM unit fire at a plane taking off from their own airport? Any White Helmets seen in the vicinity?


They are programmed not to ask questions.

Shoot first.

Let the dumb humans then figure out what happened.


IF this is true, then perhaps the problem is between the military and civilians at that airport. They just did not communicate. Each was doing their job - and more than likely did it very well. But the civilians either forgot or there was no mechanism to let the military units know that a civilian plane was on its way out?


Not very different from the IAF Spyder Missile fraticide of IAF MI-17 helicopter in Budgam near Srinagar. FOG of war or potentially an assassination of a Person of Interest flying out of Iran...

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby Aditya_V » 09 Jan 2020 15:02

Deans wrote:The US, from whatever info is available, did not try to intercept any of the missiles. They would almost certainly have been an active SAM battery in all their Iraqi bases, given the state of alert after DS's death and the known capability of Iranian missiles. My guess is that radar would be analysed the flight path of the missiles and concluded that none were a threat to assets or US personnel.

For Iran, if 22 missiles were fired without injuring or damaging anything, its a huge failure. If they wanted to send a signal, they could have done it with fewer missiles. The more professional members of Iran's military must be wondering if really have a credible deterrent against the US strike.

I'm sceptical about the pic purportedly of a SAM near the crash of the Ukrainian airliner. Iranians are not in the habit of taking pics at restricted sites, like a plane crash. It is a police state and such a pic can get you the death penalty (a pic of a girl on the street can get you punished)


Not really, if you hit anything and god forbid American lives were lost, the regime and some family members could have lost lives. At the same time- the regime can't tell that to the Domestic AUdience, they needed those pics of a large number of missiles taking off, and they are informed there 80 dead American soldiers.

So Trump knows- no American dead -ok
Domestic Audience in Iran -80 American Soldiers are dead -ok.

So they have satisfied both the US and domestic audience. I dont think after the expensive IRaq experience- US wants to get in to Iran with a hostile population.

Looks like Qassem Soleimani was the US response to Saudi Oil Refinery Attacks and if BM's were used in those attacks- that means something went wrong with the PAC-3 batteries there- may be the radars were switched off, internal sabotage by Shia Saudis, incompetence in maintenance, some dumbing down of equipment by the Americans- all played a role.

The regime in Iran probably got a bit ahead of itself Global Hawk drones, tanker attacks and Saudi Oil installation attacks- the US had to respond.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby habal » 09 Jan 2020 15:52

Tom H
@ReghalSeven
“DEBKA-Mossad acknowledged that Iran’s offensive missiles cannot be defended against. Its secret is that it hugs the ground going underneath the radar screens.” [the source is referring to the Hoveizeh cruise missile, with a range of 1,350 km, already tested by Tehran.]"

Tom H
@ReghalSeven
·
12h
Replying to
@ReghalSeven
Not to mention the Hezbollah missile arsenal.
I said last year that the new generations of missiles are clearly changing the entire game.

Tom H
@ReghalSeven
·
12h
And his other chilling statement:
"There’s consensus among the Axis of Resistance that China has a major role to play, especially in the Levant, where Beijing is seen in some quarters as a possible future partner ultimately replacing U.S. hegemony."

Tom H
@ReghalSeven
·
12h
Replying to
@ReghalSeven
A reply:
"All cruise missiles work this way. What is remarkable is that Iran has developed the advanced guidance systems that these missiles employ: countour mapping and then image comparison for the terminal phases of the flight."

Robert
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·
11h
Replying to
@ReghalSeven
and
@ejmalrai
Iran was never going to agree to a "new" deal bc the next president could just repudiate that one as well. Also US/Israel wanted an end to Iranian missile development, that was and is never gong to happen.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby Vikas » 09 Jan 2020 16:01

Folks, When you post tweets, can you give a brief one liner background on who the tweet is from. Some of us may not be knowing all the important and relevant tweeters of a given geographical region.

TIA

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West Asia News and Discussions

Postby Peregrine » 09 Jan 2020 16:12

Ukraine airline crash in Iran prompts conflicting statements - Anton Troianovski, Andrew E Kramer & Daniel Victor | NYT News Service
NEW YORK: A Ukrainian airliner carrying at least 176 people crashed shortly after takeoff from Tehran on Wednesday, killing everyone on board. It was unclear what caused the disaster, but the aircraft, a Boeing 737-800, went down amid an escalating, violent conflict between the United States and Iran.
Early statements from both Ukraine and Iran about what happened to the flight, which was bound for Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, were both confusing and contradictory. Just hours earlier, Iran had fired missiles at two bases in Iraq that house US troops, and Iranian forces were on alert for a US counter-strike.
Cheers Image

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby Atmavik » 09 Jan 2020 17:12

Lohit wrote:Some points that Trump made and some conjecture of my own (in increasing order of conjecture),



Lohit, quality post. allow me to probe further

Lohit wrote:
3. US is energy self sufficient and hence rest of the world, especially NATO (and I think under the guise of JCPOA he also hinted at Russia and China) will need to step into Middle East and subsequently global policing as US withdraws completely from ME and soon from other parts of the world. This is inline with the outlook of Trump in particular and US in general on MAGA.




this is very true and the biggest impact will be on East Asia. This is one of the reasons why china is building a massive navy and this will impact us as they enter IOR. what happens to japan as the US retreats? does new emerging tech like EVs change anything?

Lohit wrote:
4. Drawing from the point above is a change, that I feel will shape the next few decades as NATO (read European), China, Russia and other power hungry nations start a new round of colony hunting (disguised as creating beholden puppets - think Imran for China, Sisi for KSA, Al Thani for Iran etc)



we need to look at brexit in the above context.looks like britan has made its move. France still has a grip on their colonies but what are the Germans up to?

I am not sure if Turkey and Russia can play the Empire game anymore even though their rulers are nostalgic about their historical status. maybe a bit in their neighborhood but not much beyond that. newer players have emerged. UAE and SA getting close to India is a sign.


as US becomes more isolationist what happens to our Aussie friends? they have historically relied upon US/UK alliance but their biggest trading partner is now china. mass immigration is great for property value but it creates other problems. I think in this game Aussies are in a tough spot. can the west afford to give up on them?

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby UlanBatori » 09 Jan 2020 17:31

ramana wrote:Thinking about it, this picture could be fake and from.some where else.

If the pic is not fake one has to wonder how it came to be taken and published. As Deans said, that is death-penalty haraam. Only the "rescuers" and law enforcement were allowed to be seen there, and the moment the pic came out, they would have known / isolated who took it. That person better have discarded their uniform and been across the border by then.

So IF it is real, then the pic was taken by someone who expected to be waiting for it. Ask how feasible it is to hack into a centralized air defense system, for ppl who can hack into the speed control system of the nuclear centrifuges (known to have happened). Makes a point that the air defense is useless. Note that it was 4 hours after the "devastating missile strikes". 176 people, well... collateral damage.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby mody » 09 Jan 2020 17:49

There was already indication about this. Pompeo had alluded that any retaliation should be proportional and Iranian foreign minister also said that this was it for now.
Even Khameini in his televised address said that a slap across the face was delivered, but the question is what of the future? For the future, our aim is to have US military leave the region. Which signalled that the current round of retaliation is over and back to business as usual.
There are some reports that Iran also signalled to its proxies, not to attack any US military targets and Israel has already distanced itself from the strike on QS.

Everyone goes back to business as usual. In fact the strike may have opened some additional channels of communication between Iran and the US. Javad Zarif is visiting India on the 14th and has said they would welcome any Indian move for peace or dialog between Iran and the US.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby UlanBatori » 09 Jan 2020 18:07

Confirmation that Trump decided to put his foot down and resist Deep State pressure to start a war: Deep State (CNN) takes credit for it!!!

In this whole tamasha, it is Ayatollah Bolton and his Deep State ilk (incl. Sen. Graham) that came out proving that they are idiots. Sen. Paul Ryan panned Bolton as "jumping up and down and rubbing his hands in glee", and that was very evident. I wonder if there are any quiet indications that some advisors have left the WHOTUS/ Pentagon due to "health reasons".
My take is that the Iranian missile "strike" was a mirror image of Trump's "strikes" against Syria where 59 missiles were launched and only some 9 were seen to have hit any target region at all (2 aircraft shelters housing ancient Mig-23s plus the lab where they were developing anti-ATGM devices). That means there was an intermediary, most likely Putin.

After the Moscow terrorist tip-off. Putin and Trump are on bhai-bhai terms.
Amazingly, even Comrade Dianne Feinstein came out in support of Trump. They'll probably declare her haraam in the DNC.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby hnair » 09 Jan 2020 19:09

habal wrote:The killing of Russian diplomat in Istanbul didnt have proportionate reaponse.

The rape of Indian diplomat Deyyani Khobragade didn't follow with a proportionate and equivalent response.

civilized countries don't respond to criminal acts in kind.


Yes, Russia chickened out against their visible murder of diplomat. Possibly because Prez Putin is more transactional than Indian establishment, particularly when handing out S400 brochures.

But that incident you bought up, India did respond and responded hard. Even Al Guardian grudgingly admitted that India's response surprised the goras. To this day, the US embassy in Delhi had lots of privileges pulled back and even emboldened local pandus throw the rule book around at those suits. All thanks to a stupid brown-saab, who decided to aim beyond his means.

US withdraws diplomat from Delhi over Devyani Khobragade row

Btw, UB-saar, whatever happened to Janab Preet Bharara? Someone recently was saying he is busy correcting assignments at some Law school as a TA in Noo Yoik? And to think the chap was touted by DNC for heavy lifting positions :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: Very proportionate, I would say. Anyways, this is OT, but want to point out that India responses has been pretty measured yet proportionate with khan in its own ways in that incident

No amount of spinning about Iran and civilized behavior can make Gen Soleimani alive again. The window of meaningful military retaliation is closed. President Trump has done something regular US presidents normally dont do - pull back from the brink twice in the span of a few months, despite war-hawks screeching loudly on his shoulders. He said something that was curious during the Global Hawk episode : he asked how many will die, if US retaliated against an unmanned drone and then went on to talk about it in a public tweet

I think the Ayatollahs and their advisors got the message on how much to push the Orange One - give a show to the mourners, but no causalities via serious retaliation.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby habal » 09 Jan 2020 19:20

hnair wrote:But that incident you bought up, India did respond and responded hard. Even Al Guardian grudgingly admitted that India's response surprised the goras. To this day, the US embassy in Delhi had lots of privileges pulled back and even emboldened local pandus throw the rule book around at those suits. All thanks to a stupid brown-saab, who decided to aim beyond his means.


So as per your opinion that was a proportionate response.
Similarly as per Iranian foreign minister this is a proportionate response.
What may seem proportionate to you may not seem proportionate to others. :)
But fact of matter is after pearl harbor US was hit back.
That is a first.

After so many war crimes, US is not invincible anymore.

And it took an Iran and a crippled economy and much derided ayatollahs to achieve what many nuclear weapon states failed to do.

.

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West Asia News and Discussions

Postby Peregrine » 09 Jan 2020 19:25

Trump officials give 'worst briefing in history' about Iran missile attack, leaving even Republicans fuming - The Independent Clark Mindock,

The intelligence briefings given by top Trump administration officials to detail the rationale for an airstrike that has led the US to the brink of war with Iran has been derided by members of both parties in the US Capitol, marking a rare breach of unity in the Republican ranks.

The classified briefings were intended to bring Congress out of the dark on the justification for the airstrike Donald Trump ordered last week that killed Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani, Iran’s second most powerful figure.

But the briefings from top officials including State secretary Mike Pompeo and Defence secretary Mark Esper were quickly slammed by Democrats and at least two prominent Republicans, one of whom who called it “probably the worst briefing” of his career.

“Now I find this insulting and demeaning, not personally, but to the office that each of the 100 senators in this building happen to hold. I find it insulting, and I find it demeaning to the Constitution to which we’ve all sworn an oath. It is after all the prerogative of the legislative branch to declare war,” senator Mike Lee, a Republican, told reporters during a press briefing alongside senator Rand Paul.

Mr Lee added: “What we were told over and over again was, ‘look, this action is necessary, this was a bad guy, we had to do it and we can’t have division. We can’t have division within our ranks, within our government, otherwise it sends a wrong signal to the Iranians’. And I just, I think that’s completely wrong.”

Mr Lee joined in with many Democrats in decrying the classified briefings, with senator Chuck Schumer saying the Trump administration officials couldn’t handle the heat in the briefing room.

“As the questions began to get tough, they walked out,” the New York Democrat said. “There were so many important questions that they did not answer.”

Gerry Connolly, a Democrat in the House of Representatives, described the meeting as particularly unhelpful.

“Without commenting on content, my reaction to this briefing was it was sophomoric and utterly unconvincing and I believe that more than ever the Congress needs to act to protect the constitutional provisions about war and peace,” he said.

“I believe the administration is after the fact trying to piece together a rationale for its action that was impulsive, reckless and put this country’s security at risk,” he added.

The Trump administration has not made public its full rationale for the airstrike last week, but has said the attack was ordered after Mr Trump determined that an attack against Americans was "imminent".

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