West Asia News and Discussions

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habal
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby habal » 12 Jan 2020 16:28

first reporter to cover al-asad airbase after attacks. The damage seems extensive.


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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby UlanBatori » 12 Jan 2020 18:15

Not same thing. Executing own side of course will be done only by idiots (though Iran is doing a fine job of it in stampedes and "air defense". The other side will just fake their executions or bring the immigrants from ur side and execute them instead.

But executing the leaders for Failure Of Diplomacy will create fine system with a continuous demand and supply. Look at any nation: a fine vacuum already exists at the top of the top, covered only by a topi.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby UlanBatori » 12 Jan 2020 18:16

habal wrote:damage seems extensive

US planning to get out of these bases, right? In Syria they had to bomb the evacuated bases. Here they got the Iranians to do it and probably Lloyd's Insurance can be billed for it. Win-win.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby habal » 12 Jan 2020 18:21

Iran apologized, but Trump & other US presidents will never say sorry for what they've done to Middle East
https://www.rt.com/op-ed/478038-iran-ap ... -us-blame/
Finian Cunningham

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby habal » 12 Jan 2020 19:08

https://mobile.almasdarnews.com/article ... rn-around/

Syrian Army stops #US military convoy and forces it to turn around

https://mobile.almasdarnews.com/article ... rn-around/

The Syrian soldiers at the checkpoint allegedly forced the U.S. military convoy to turn around instead of allowing them to continue traveling along the International Highway (M-4).

BEIRUT, LEBANON (3:00 P.M.) – A U.S. military convoy allegedly approached a Syrian Arab Army (SAA) checkpoint in the Tal Tamr countryside this past week and was forced to turn around, the think tank Katehon reported.

According to the site, the U.S. convoy consisting of four vehicles was heading towards the silos near Tal Tamr when it approached a Syrian Army checkpoint.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby habal » 12 Jan 2020 19:51

Online sources saying US wanted to assassinate QassemSoleimani in Lebanon or Syria but Israel stopped the process, suggesting Iraq.

Israel didn't want Hezbollah to open all fronts against it. So Trump decided that it is better to sacrifice US lives & have Iran retaliating in Iraq.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby habal » 12 Jan 2020 19:58

Source: #Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani carried to #Iran #Tehran a clear message from the #US: De-escalation on all fronts and that the US have no intention to stay in #Iraq for very long.
Iran answered that DonaldTrump can't be trusted & more.

https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2020 ... 20423.html

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby UlanBatori » 12 Jan 2020 21:55

I have said for long that Iran and US are far more natural allies than KSA and US. I have never understood the takleef between the Shia and the Israelis: Both are highly endangered minorities in West Asia. A Syria-Israel-Lebanon-Iran-Yemen (and now Iraq) axis would basically end the oily sheikhs' and Sunni Mullahs' arrogance.
India can be OK with both camps.
Part of the ISIS motivation IMO is the imminence of Peak Oil. The Sunni Sheikhs see the era of their extreme income streams to be limited. Once the income fro the global financial systems >> income from oil wells, the motivation to have strong defences around the oil wells and refineries and ports, disappears, and the world will lose interest in the blighted deserts of the Persian Gulf and Arabian Peninsula. Even Dubai is on a lit fuse: why would a center of commerce be located in such a terrible place? Arabia will return to being a sparsely-inhabited desert.

So the Sunnis want to try and wipe out all resistance and unify the entire region under the Sunni version of the Ummah, while they still have time and American protection based on the oil wells and refineries.

On the above, one small point mentioned on the other (ME Wars) dhaga: about US light sweet oil vs. Arab heavy crude etc. It may be true (I had no idea) that most refineries are for heavy crude, and cannot handle light sweet.

The concept of Peak Oil is not that supplies will run dry. The concept is that demand > supply, so prices will keep rising as supplies diminish and extraction becomes more expensive. So far so good: at some point the prices crossed the point at which extracting shale oil became marginally profitable. But the real crash of Peak Oil comes, when alternatives to petroleum become viable and the transportation industry migrates away from oil, big time. Sharply, demand for oil will FALL... and elasticity will be low: just reducing price will not make ppl sell their electric cars.

And the refinery problem is this: As demand and supply are both projected to diminish, operators will not be able to justify maintaining refineries. So refineries will start closing - further constricting supply. But price cannot keep rising because the demand is also shrinking. So we quickly come to a point where it is not worth extracting oil: either light sweet (which will crash first due to the high cost of shale extraction/ fracking) or heavy crude.
The rest will simply be left in the ground: we will never run out of oi.

But Arabia will run out of its income stream: the vast migrant workforce cannot be maintained. The tribes will start trying to eat each other. There will be nothing to support the existence of a nation-state such as KSA.

I cannot project all the geo-political/strategic issues that this generates, because good sense and Sunni Islam do not seem compatible. Not to mention US Deep State interests.
Last edited by UlanBatori on 12 Jan 2020 22:10, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby habal » 12 Jan 2020 21:59

the actual american reason behind assasination of soleimani could be the saudi overtures to him. That would bring stability to an order that he bought around and almost stabilized which US & Israel so desperately want to subvert. Israel cant be friends with any of its neighbours. Apart from Jordan Israel would like to expand its borders in every direction.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby UlanBatori » 12 Jan 2020 22:11

^^ That I see no reason to disagree. The Iraqi PM said as much (that QS was carrying proposals to implement that), and he had no reason to lie about it. KSA has not denied that story either. In a flash that would have opened KSA to Putinji (Turkey set the example). The cheen-Roos joint exercises have to be viewed in this light. The old US-China marriage against Russia would be replaced by a Russia-China marriage against US. Meanwhile NATO is toothless except for US.
Baaad news all over Africa and the ME.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby Lisa » 12 Jan 2020 22:14

This is a nice fact to ignore,

"The Bush Administration later sought an agreement with the Iraqi government, and in 2008 George W. Bush signed the U.S.–Iraq Status of Forces Agreement. It included a deadline of 31 December 2011, before which "all the United States Forces shall withdraw from all Iraqi territory".[11][12][13] The last U.S. troops left Iraq on 18 December 2011, in accordance with this agreement."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Withdrawa ... _from_Iraq

Withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq

Current narrative, US forces are going to be FORCED out. Now really, no memory of life in Iraq before ISIS?

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby UlanBatori » 12 Jan 2020 22:18

Lisaji, someone posted that ISIS may have grown out of US Wunderkind Gen. Petraeus' tactical brilliance in supporting development of a Sunni force to counter the rise of the Shia militias which would mean a Shia-dominated Iraq. It is a known fact that the ex-Saddam military was disbanded and basically out of jobs. Wonderful recruitment base for ISIS, and of course they could be armed generously with ATGMs and HUMVEEs.

Just out of curiosity, how many ground clashes (i.e., ISIS choosing where to attack US forces) have there been between ISIS and US forces?

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby Lisa » 12 Jan 2020 22:46

UlanBatoriji,

You need to look up Tariq al-Hashimi, he was VP of Iraq.

Simple story, he and Nouri al-Maliki did not get on and there was a significant clash between the two as the Sunni veto in policy was being diluted (there was an unwritten understanding that much as shias were the majority, a sunni policy veto was available-Hashimi was the guarantor). The Americans explained to Nouri al-Maliki that the consequences of such a venture would be dire but he did not care, he wanted to be done with the sunnis. At this stage, conveniently, al-Maliki remembers that al-Hashimi was involved in multiple murders. Now that's a short order in Iraq where only murder will gives you access to power, ie everyone whose is anyone has bloody hands!

Al-Hashim, flees first to Kurdistan, ie sunni lands and then moves freely between arab countries as a VP settling eventually, I think, in Turkey. Meanwhile, up north the tribes realise that shias alone are running Iraq and decide to link up with sunnis who are rebelling in Syria. Hey Presto! ISIS fills the vacuum and now all of a sudden they are an American creation. These conspiracy theorist first and foremost care is to read NO HISTORY.

Look at the timings of what I am saying and also look up the actions of the tribes, ie the particularly sectarian nature of their revolt, ie, kill all the shias FIRST, then we will see where power takes us.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Camp_Speicher_massacre

Nouri al-Maliki's stupidity has probably cost 200,000+ lives and nobody has held his policy to account to this day. I can regretfully clearly remember this chain of events and more so the explicit American warnings to him.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby UlanBatori » 12 Jan 2020 23:14

^^ My reading of the above is that AlHashimi was carrier of the Sunni veto, per American diktat, and Americans warned Al Maliki (the American flunky who kindly reported Saddam's WMD to the Americans, right?) not to kick out Hashimi. But the American puppet-crook Maliki kicked out the American puppet-murderer Hashimi so the latter went out and created the ISIS. Doesn't it follow that this was an American creation then? They sure got LOTS of American help: thousands of HUMVEEs fresh off the production line, M-1 tanks, u name it. And as they were created, and as they trained, and as they organized their legions of Toyota pickup trucks and put machine guns on them, and as they cruised in long convoys through the desert, the Americans, who claim to have seen 2 missiles launched against an airliner at 6AM in Teheran, could not see any of this happeningin Iraq which they controlled. The ISIS was a Miraculous Conception, invisible to those who controlled the skies.

That seems to be a hard sell, hain?

My curiosity remains. There are a few reports of US airstrikes "against the ISIS". The Pentagon claims 168,000 sorties to be precise. Perhaps 167,987 were to carry the forms filled out to Request Permission To Request Permission - to ask WTH was the Policy of the USA in Eyerak and Syria. Per the Russians, most of the rest were against the legitimate army of Syria, or against civilians. BUT.. I have never heard of the ISIS attacking a US base, or post.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby Lisa » 12 Jan 2020 23:47

Al-Hashim did not create ISIS. It was a coincidence of situations. Sunnis up north did not trust Al Maliki and as you previously mentioned, all ex-Saddam's military was unemployed. Sunnis don't trust shias just like in Syria so let's have our own uprising ie if they can overthrow Assad then we can overthrow Al Maliki.

Start with killing shias and all of a sudden there is no effective government. Al Baghdadi see vacuum, creates tools of government, ie Koran, and fills vacuum. Clearly understand, there were no American forces in Iraq them - they actually arrived in 2014. This barbarism was a purely arab event.

A long time ago in a political discussion when the fighting in Fallujah was going on, I said, the misery in the middle east is just beginning. Two main features were going to create the axis of this misery. First and foremost, the American are going to leave behind a democracy of sorts and with this the first seeds of misery. In other words, arabs in other countries will ask why no franchise here if there is franchise in Iraq. They are regularly asking this question EVERY day. Islam's rejection of democracy means that this matter will now fester forever.

Secondly, GW Bush had by the above action changed Iraq history in a manner that most people do not really understand. He removed a sunni minority from governing a shia majority for the first time in a really long time. The sunnis cannot accept this and that quiet tussle between these two factions in now a daily reality. Most crucially, a shia crescent from Iran to alawite Syria has now bisected the sunis for the first time in history.

The American's first military axiom remains the same, no conflict on continental US. They have succeeded. The magnet of the middle east conflict has kept them safe and it appears that it will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

For those who want to blame the Americans, bully to them. Just take them for a short stroll in any major American city and then to any city in either Iraq or Iran and let them then explain who IS winning.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby anmol » 13 Jan 2020 00:28

Lots of short videos of the "protests" against Iranian regime.

I don't know about the authenticity, but please check out these YT account:
https://www.youtube.com/user/UNITY4IRAN/videos
https://www.youtube.com/user/Persiancreed1/videos


Videos from these accounts:






All these videos are really short in length.

See Ayee Aye ?

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby UlanBatori » 13 Jan 2020 02:26

Just take them for a short stroll in any major American city and then to any city in either Iraq or Iran and let them then explain who IS winning.


Lisaji, thanks, good arguments. I would say that the American withdrawal was waay premature. Deliberately/thoughtlessly I do not know, in US foreign policy those are the same today. It is like me trying to fix a hole in a wall: after a few attempts to smooth out the goo over the grid, I lose patience and just paint. Bad idea. They had barely conducted an election, and the resulting government was a shaky one, led by someone weak and **KNOWN*** to be 100% corrupt and treacherous. He was "elected" because he was a stooge of the Occupation Forces. **NOT** a nationalist with massive popular appeal. Those with appeal were ppl like Al Zarkawi (pbuh) etc. (yes I know he was Sunni who declared 100% war on shias) who were willing to put their lives on the line fighting for their nation's freedom. Or Ayatollah Sistani and Muqtada Al Sadr - the latter already honored by several Drone blessings - and in hiding. Then again, hard to get good leaders to come forward because life expectancy was a few weeks given the frequency of car bombs if not drone strikes.

The US "withdrew" with utter malice. All indications are that the withdrawal was a "let's show them". They were tired of the IEDs. Tired of the Shia uprisings. The US watched with zero action as the ISIS came up. NATO air power was very much still in Iraq, but sat on their hands. They watched the YAZIDIS - who had noooo part in all this - get savaged in the biggest war crime of the 21st century (I know, the century is still young). Doing nothing there until it was too late was the war crime.

So there is much merit to the argument that the "US forces returned in 2014" was the "we showed you". And Trump has confirmed, no 2 ways about it, that it was and remains all about looting and selling the oil resources. The art works, anything moveable, have already been looted and sold off. Even the young Yazidi women. There is no forgiveness for this.

As for the idea of strolling in American cities, please don't. A bit far from Ulan Bator, but we read the news every day. And the chances of violent death are actually higher if u r a K-12 or college student. Minority? Far higher.

BTW, the present American-bolstered-but-ungrateful Iraq Democratic Govt has its own proud record.
Geting there, but way to go b4 matching Chicago.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby UlanBatori » 13 Jan 2020 04:37

To add to that: browsing Wikipedia tells me that Zarqawi (shia) has been targeted many times by Droneacharya. But the same could not see the ISIS getting ready to invade Sinjar? Really? Nor Kirkuk, nor Tikrit (Sunni center!) nor Ramadi nor Mosul.
The only meaningful US air strikes were when world opinion (and maybe local commanders with a conscience and real patriotism?) demanded action to prevent the Kurds getting genocided at Kobane by the Turkish-backed ISIS. Apparently a few strikes WERE conducted, and that ended the ISIS action there. BUT.. heres' the kicker... the ISIS just happily withdrew in good order across the desert, with the US not bothering them at all!!!!!!! Budget cuts at the USAF no doubt? They could have knocked out a LOT of the ISIS tanks and Toyotas, if not ended a whole army of them right there.

Bottom line: If Iraq wants to survive, the only hope today is to strike a deal with Uncle Pootin to get Vodkov, Smirnoff and the Balaclava Boyz to come in and take over. Plus the IRGC and Hezbollah on the ground.

The Iranians just need to hold a summit with the Israelis, and see how the Saudis managed to achieve such lovey-doveyness with their long-declared "Zionist Imperialist" enemy.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby Lisa » 13 Jan 2020 05:05

UlanBatori wrote:[ I would say that the American withdrawal was waay premature.


UlanBatoriji

Americans did not leave prematurely, they were in effect forced out. The Iraqi government refused to sign the Status Of Forces Agreement, to some degree because of Iranian pressure. They in part also refused to sign this agreement as it was one of the main sticks that had been used by Ayatollah Khomeini to beat The Shah out of office. The iraqis had no desire to emulate the Shah.

This matter is what kept the Americans from intervening against ISIS, ie I told you so is an American Bitch!

Ayatollah Al Sistani is the only one who is somewhat clean. He remains the only one who refused to meet any American or any envoy sent by them. No love lost between him and Muqtada Al Sadr both on account of the laters stupidity in staring down the Americans in the Battle of Najaf where he was virtually annihilated or because his own father picked Sistani as a successor rather than his own son!

Most of Iraq, with all its troubles, was working out until Al Maliki did what he did. Rest is all history, how shias have yet again be killed by sunnis. Lucky them , martyrdom is part of faith, yes?

Main show yet to begin. Yemen is happening, Bahrain remains under foreign military occupation (strange how there are no global protests about this) and most importantly how stable are the eastern provinces in Saudi Arabia which are predominantly shia. May you live in interesting times.

(corrected spellings)
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby Lisa » 13 Jan 2020 05:11

UlanBatoriji

Why do you think that the Americans should help destroy ISIS? After all they were killing Syrians, the same Syrians that had been assembling and distributing EFP's to kill Americans or for that matter Iraqis who had told the Americans we do not need you. Correct? Arabs killing Arabs, why should America care.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby UlanBatori » 13 Jan 2020 07:39

Because America destroyed the stability that had enabled ordinary Iraqis to live relatively stable lives. The Yazidis survived all these decades, hain?
Here is the fallacy that I see in the "mainstream" US line. The US claims that it is trying to Protect Freedom and Peace. Then they :(( that the Ayrabs don't allow democracy to survive. Well... the US expects Arab nations to magically develop the institutional stability to elect candidates based on objective merit, and have a system where (a) the Majority rules and (b) they look out for the Minorities. How the heck does that happen? Does it happen even in the US? UK? It took centuries for the USA and UK to even reach a situation where massive central power ensures 'respect' for Law and Order per a Constitution.

It takes decades if not centuries for such systems to take root. Until then, the natural tendency is for people to elect their own kind, and expect those to look out mainly for the interests of the majority. Its a case of the Majority conquering the Minority.

The only way that both the minorities and the majority can win respect, is for the ruling junta to be from a MINORITY. Then they have to be careful not to biss off the majority to the point of rebellion. This is why Iraq under Saddam, and Syria under Assad, were reasonably stable. The Americans went into both and utterly destroyed that stability. No praise needs to be showered on the US for that incredibly stupid move - and every indication is that it was done to profit from the instability - an utterly Satanic level of cynicism in causing millions of deaths and untold suffering - all For a Few Dollars More.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby habal » 13 Jan 2020 09:45

Maxim A. Suchkov
@MSuchkov_ALM
·
6h
#Russia's grand special operation in #MiddleEast 2.0
#Libya's warring parties, Khalifa #Haftar already in #Moscow, #Sarraj expected to arrive tomorrow to clinch #Russia-#Turkey brokered deal.
Top 3 Turkish officials (MFA, MoD and intelligence) will be in Moscow tomorrow as well

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby Lisa » 13 Jan 2020 12:20

UlanBatoriji,

I am skating on thin ice and in all probability heading towards writing about matters that are no longer pertinent to this thread so probably my last post. Personally, I am tired of of having all the world's ills being placed on the doors of the Americans. The Americans have since 1945 meddled in all sorts and must take their fair share of responsibility for the misery that their actions have created but natons need to stand up and take responsibility for better governance of their own people.

Let's take an example, Algeria. An election is held and an islamist party wins and decides to use the 'book' as its constitution. Military that is in power asks the winning party what will happen in five years time when the next election is held and it is bluntly told that now 'book' has no provision for election so we will remain in power, ie we will use democracy as a method to succeed into power but intend to never allow another election as Koran has no such provisions! Military refuse to hand over power, civil war of sort occurs and not less than 100,00 are dead. Please notice NO Americans involved so nobody is interested to publicise the conflict.

This is not the only case. Lets mention the conflict in the Great Lakes, 5 million dead, let's say that again slowly 5,000,000 dead at least. no American involved so please don't mention it. South Sudan, almost 2,500,000 dead, please let's not discuss it as no Americans are involved, Boko Haram, 50,000 already dead and still counting but again let's not discuss it as no Americans are involved. Why go too far, show me a thread on this forum discussing any of these matters, please. Why?

Criteria is simple, firstly is a muslim dead or involved, secondly is an America or a Jew involved (more recent addition to this list, is a Hindu involved) then how can we report this news with a slant and attach blame on one of these parties. That's it. Not complex. On this forum alone, how many posts have you seen or read about how much the Israelis have done and not one on the Great Lakes, really! 5 Million dead ond not one one of these humanitarians noticed but they know Sulimani's human rights were violated!

ISIS is the same scenario, Maliki knew what he was doing, the Americans did not force him but now let's try to find reasons and excuses of how to blame someone, ideally an American, some on this thread have also tried to blame Israel! Please let me be clear, the Americans are not blameless but this was an exclusively arab enterprise and they must stand up and take responsibility.

When you have time please study South American governance between the years just before the collapse of the Berlin wall and the 10 years later and ask yourself where all the dictatorships went. Every single one that the Americans had anything to do with was removed from office as the Americans had a fundamental belief in the virtues of democracy (once the commies were all gone!). Back to where I started some 16 years ago, once the Americans are gone they will leave behind a democracy of sorts.

Last post- I think.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby habal » 13 Jan 2020 12:30

<POOF>

Admin note: Post your points or a rebuttal. Let the reader make a judgement on who is shilling for whom
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby habal » 13 Jan 2020 13:12

meanwhile there are also reports that the transponder of the illfated ukraininan airliner stopped sending signals for around 4 mins and 30 secs before it crashed. Those vital seconds over what was a war zone was important in creating conditions where a stand alone SAM like the Tor M1 could not recognize the airliner or differentiate it from an incoming missile.

Final summary of the Iran shoot down of Ukranian jet

Two minutes after take off, the transponder, communications, and lights on the aircraft were shut off, obviously via remote. It flew in this hacked configuration for approximately 4 minutes and 30 seconds before, in error, Iranian ground forces mistook it for a cruise missile and shot it down, with Iran's top nuclear physicists aboard. The plane was sent out during a no fly order to get the most important people (and their families) out of Iran before a war broke out, which Iran was expecting.


Even though this strongly comes in CTheory territory makes a lot of sense. Because neither can Iran explain why they allowed plane to take off, if the plane had some special passengers or special family members of important people who had to be taken out. Maybe a lot of flights that night had this group of people in their list. Neither can they admit that the plane was carrying such important passengers. Also makes sense why the pilots had to turn around using visual cues to locate the runway in absence of other options.

An integrated air defense system provides a full picture of the air situation to all connected units. Fixed radars, defense missile units and command and control centers are connected by secure landlines, not by radio.
But the mobile Tor M1 system responsible for shooting down the Ukrainian airliner was added as a stand alone system. It is an relatively old system. Its operators only had a voice radio connection to other parts of the network. If they had a data connection at all it was also via radio and with very little throughput. The system did not have the full picture of the air situation. Its own radar has a maximum detection range of 25 kilometer (16 miles). In most practical situations it will be a lot less than that. Bidganeh, where the system was deployed, is a strategic missile production and test facility some 30 kilometer away from Tehran airport. The Tor operator did not know that a civil airplane had just taken off:

names of six possible nuclear scientists aboard the flight
Image

Image

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby g.sarkar » 13 Jan 2020 13:31

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... -ways-iran
Impact of Suleimani's death is playing out in unexpected ways
Iranian general’s assassination has led to an eerie calm rather than the predicted turmoil
Martin Chulov Middle East correspondent
Sun 12 Jan 2020.

Qassem Suleimani’s wrecked car was still smouldering when the predicted consequences of his death started to rebound across the Middle East. There would be chaos, outrage, instability – maybe even war. Among those who opposed the killing and those who cheered it on, there was more or less consensus: things would never be the same again.
One week on, that maxim still holds in a region still grappling with it’s impact. Yet the aftermath of the most significant assassination of modern times has not created the turmoil that many had predicted. If anything, the heartland areas of the Iranian general’s extraordinary sphere of influence are, thus far, eerily calm. His home front, on the other hand, remains unsettled and reeling – not so much as a result of his death, but because of those of 176 passengers onboard a Ukrainian airliner shot from the sky in the panicked days that followed. Having lost its most formidable general, then its collective face in a muted counterstrike partly choreographed with Washington, Iran’s vaunted military had lost its nerve. And so overwhelming was the evidence, it finally had to admit it.
Internationally, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards’ eventual acknowledgement that its gunners had mistakenly shot down the passenger plane played relatively well. The mea culpa stood in stark contrast to Russia’s persistent denials that it had downed the Malaysian airliner, MH17, five years earlier – and the admission was seen as a reset after a week of fear, loathing and disaster.
The home front is very different though; there the IRGC’s about face has played poorly, as has the colossal mistake in shooting the plane down. The outpouring of grief and pride that galvanised Iran’s regime as Suleimani’s remains were carried around Iran has given way to embarrassment. The missile salvos fired against US bases in response had mostly missed – possibly intentionally. One of the few rockets to find a target had hit the wrong one. And now the Revolutionary Guards, the most powerful institution in the land, are facing scorn.
The Iranian leadership’s calculations – that it had less to lose by admitting its mistake than it did by denying it in the face of such compelling evidence – may still win the day as the anger of its citizens subsides. But the exposure of the Revolutionary Guards to such ridicule is not something that sits comfortably – especially so soon after the demise of a man long considered indefatigable at home and untouchable abroad.
Suelimani’s sudden demise was a visceral shock to those who both feared and revered him during the 20 years he bestrode the region like an overlord, imposing his will and advancing Iran’s interests with impunity. All of Iran’s regional ambitions were manifested in one man – a messianic figure who few would dare say no to, let alone kill. His violent end would, it was thought, surely spark bedlam.
Yet, with Suleimani buried, Iran having stood down, its military having fired its missiles and now dealing with humiliation at home and abroad, a strange sangfroid has descended. Iran’s powerful proxies, which were thought to be the apex of its response, have been mute. Its enemies, on high alert since the drone strike in Baghdad in the early hours of 3 January, have started to relax. And its political rivals are quickly getting used to life without the formidable presence of a man who often stood in their way.
Turkey, Israel, Russia and Saudi Arabia, who tussled with Iran for power and influence across the region, all knew Suleimani well. Conversations with representatives of all four regional powers over the past week reveal a mix of surprise that he was killed and relief at an aftermath that, in their minds, has sharply weakened Iran’s regional hand.
In Syria, where Suleimani had jostled with Vladimir Putin for influence over Bashar al-Assad, Moscow now appears to hold a much easier hand. Never comfortable with Iran’s view of what a post-war Syria should look like, Russia’s efforts to assert its will look as though they will be relatively unimpeded until Soleimani’s replacement establishes some authority of his own – a process that is unlikely to be quick.
....
Gautam

Aditya_V
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby Aditya_V » 13 Jan 2020 13:35

Some of the CT's here are going into the realm of the unbeliavable, guys step back and read some of the stuff here. We all have our biases but some of it is going well into Goebbels levels.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby UlanBatori » 13 Jan 2020 13:56

Well.... the video purportedly of the airliner just b4 mijjile impact shows a bright light in the sky moving along steadily. White light, not the orange of a fire. That had to be landing lights. No evidence of blinking red/green etc which may be due to the poor resolution. I took the bright white to be landing lights but those are only seen in a small cone. You have to wonder who was so devoid of selfies (not 2 mention insomniac) to take that. So they had their cellphone trained on a (silent over urban noise) plane, visible only as a white light, at 6AM. Maybe there was no traffic and airplane noise WAS so unusual and the videotaker was like me, looking up at any airplane noise? But.. WHY videotape? As in..... what did they expect to see happening? And Why? Even UBCN cannot imagine that the sabotage was set up to accurately predict the flight path of a crippled 1-engine-out airliner returning to the airport. Maybe the airspace over the IRGC site was soooo haraam that any airplane noise there meant that interesting things were about to happen? This is another of those "no problem unless u start thinking" things. The transponder thing was mentioned by someone immediately after the crash, so very important. Good reason why black box should not be allowed to fall into foreign hands before full analysis.

Lisaji, best discussion I have had on this thread or any thread for many moons. And let's not jump to conclusions as to which "side" I am on except what is given at the end.

Frankly I had to look up where Great Lakes were: I thought those were the US-Canadian lakes. Yes, I think there need to be well-informed Africa threads on BRF. I had heard about 0.5Million genocide of Tutsis but not the 5million figure, but I do wonder from time to time what it must be like to try to bring up a family in those parts (of course I thought Congo was in West Africa: never heard of the term Great Lakes used to describe this region). Also, I thought that was over and Rwanda today is a thriving model of stable gun-point democracy, ***RULED BY THE MINORITY*** Tutsis. So relevant to the UBCN 1st Theorem of West Asian/African Stability. Thanks!

Now to the Congo. No, sorry , it is very unfair of you to deny the US credit for the 5 Million. Please check into the murder of Dag Hammarskjoeld of Norwaystan, UN Gen. Secy and considered an honest and independent man - a deadly combo for that august position. And Patrick Lumumba, first democratically elected PM (or was it President) of Congo. SeeAyyeh is widely credited with that plane crash - no bomb, I think "they" just sent a fighter plane to shoot down the plane with cannon fire. Over the jungle. Didn't even have to have them eaten.

Later assassination of Rwanda PM was also by plane crash but I don't know whom to credit for that.

Sudan I did not associate with any lakes. That is a crusades extension, IMO.

So, one CAN generalize all these in the manner of the Physicist proving that All Odd Numbers Are Prime Numbers. Or of the mathematician who proved that cockroaches with all 6 legs pulled off, become disobedient since they don't jump/run any more when a slipper impacts nearby.

IOW, that
Islam + elections == Genocide + Civil War.

or
Africans + Independence == Genocide and Cannibalism


But that is defeatist. These people are not going to stop killing each other now, just because they are converted to say, Jainism. It's Kill or Be Killed.
Basic human instincts rule.
But... WHO is arming them with ever more efficient killing machines? The Hutus used machetes mostly, but others are heavily armed with 'modern' weapons. Medicines have a hard time getting to these places, food has a hard time, but ATGMs, battle tanks, AK-47s, SAMs, noooo problem. Global fund transfers go through very tough examinations - try setting up an account and sending $500 through State Bank of India Chicago (Ulan Bator is a "small town" as they snootily informed me) and you'll find out. But these weapon transactions and shipments go on freely. WHY?

Same as in Iraq/Syria. Some 50,000 (FIFTY THOUSAND numbers onlee) ATGMs have been delivered to the gentle Moderate Child Beheaders, supported by the USA and KSA. "Pro-democratic forces". To overthrow the legitimate govt of Syria. Maybe 100,000 in Libya.

Buy stock, Lisaji, in Raytheon, Lockheed and Boeing (Military Systems if you can find that separately). But don't use the winnings to take strolls in gentle American cities.
****

My point is that all this is a VERY essential discussion to have, if one is interested in an India devoid of such excitement. Where little kids don't automatically put their hands up when they see someone in uniform or carrying a heavy metal object (recent picture from near Aleppo - you see that and other stuff and it keeps u awake at 2AM typing on PeeAref). Don't sit back with the comfortable rationalization:
"Oh, those are MUSLIM countries! Or AFRICAN countries! Not a civilized nation like INDIA! Never happen to us!"


Been there, done that, hain? 1000 years of slavery not enough? Study the West Asia threads while we still can, esp. "Best" and most horrifying lessons on history and contemporary Strategic Affairs unfolding before us.
Last edited by UlanBatori on 13 Jan 2020 18:26, edited 3 times in total.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby Lisa » 13 Jan 2020 14:57

UlanBatoriji,

By my calculations, you owe me a favour for the education. Anyway, some other day.

P.S. In Rwanda, it was the French. They actually supplied paratroopers to help the Interahamwe escape. Francois Mitterand's son supplied the arms to help execute the genocide- excuse the pun. All charges against him were dropped.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby UlanBatori » 13 Jan 2020 18:14

Aditya_V wrote:Some of the CT's here are going into the realm of the unbeliavable, guys step back and read some of the stuff here. We all have our biases but some of it is going well into Goebbels levels.

Hey, CT's are by definition "incredible". Uncomfortable. Demand thought. But please, as the adminullahs say, post rebutting evidence and evaluate credibility of those?
Back in 2003 many said there were no DubyaEmDees in Eyerak. Including the UN weapon inspectors and iirc, the IAEA. The US Officialdom declared that there were... and no less than US SoS Colin bin Powell waved photos around at the UN. Photos, as we have on excellent authority, ..... from 1990!!!
So would you rather believe the ppl who would do THAT instead of ppl like UBCN who have absolutely no axe to grind and essentially vacuum between our ears, hain? :(( At least we are not DELIBERATE liars? We publish CTs from all sides.

Anyway reason I came here is to post Urgent New Info that came by WhatsApp.

President Trump was teaching a kindergarten class how to remember the spelling of the word Assassination.

"Remember, children. One ass before another ass. And following those asses, I. Following the 2 asses and I, the Nation."

UlanBatori
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby UlanBatori » 13 Jan 2020 18:22

Lisa wrote:UlanBatoriji,
By my calculations, you owe me a favour for the education. Anyway, some other day.
P.S. In Rwanda, it was the French. They actually supplied paratroopers to help the Interahamwe escape. Francois Mitterand's son supplied the arms to help execute the genocide- excuse the pun. All charges against him were dropped.

Merci Beaucoup, as the Rwandan Hutus said to Bin Mitterand. U cannot fault me for the Great Lakes ignorance. What lakes can be Great except those that MAG (b4 MAGA), hain?

UlanBatori
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby UlanBatori » 13 Jan 2020 18:32

US to send some Saudi aviation students home
I thought they would deputize them to the School of The Americas in AlObama. Known for the Welcome Poster:
Kill 'em all. Let Gawd sort'em out.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby habal » 13 Jan 2020 19:58

Trump blackmailed Iraqi PM abdul mehdi into giving up 50% of Iraqi oil revenue for reconstruction of Iraqi electricity grid that was destroyed in US bombing campaigns over the years.

When the Iraqi PM refused the US offer and proceeded to China for rebuilding deal, he was threatened with assasination and mass protests by Trump.


Trump said he would ask Iraq to pay for the bases the U.S. has built should the U.S. troops be kicked out of Iraq. The U.S. already has binding legal agreements with Iraq which stipulate that the bases, and all fixed installations the U.S. has built there, are the property of Iraq.


Trump had already asked Iraqi Prime Ministers -twice- if the U.S. could get Iraq's oil as reward for invading and destroying their country. The requests were rejected. Now we learn that Trump also uses gangster methods (ar) to get the oil of Iraq. The talk by the Iraqi Prime Minister Abdul Mahdi happened during the recent parliament session in Iraq (machine translation):

Al-Halbousi, Speaker of the Iraqi Council of Representatives, blocked the speech of Mr. Abdul Mahdi in the scheduled session to discuss the decision to remove American forces from Iraq.
At the beginning of the session, Al-Halbousi left the presidential seat and sat next to Mr. Abdul-Mahdi, after his request to cut off the live broadcast of the session, a public conversation took place between the two parties. The voice of Adel Abdul Mahdi was raised.

Mr. Abdul Mahdi spoke with an angry tone, saying:

"The Americans are the ones who destroyed the country and wreaked havoc on it. They are those who refuse to complete building the electrical system and infrastructure projects. They have bargained for the reconstruction of Iraq in exchange for giving up 50% of Iraqi oil imports, so I refused and decided to go to China and concluded an important and strategic agreement with it, and today Trump is trying to cancel this important agreement."

The American President's threatened the Iraqi Prime Minister to liquidate him directly with the Minister of Defense. The Marines are the third party that sniped the demonstrators and the security men:

Abdul Mahdi continued:

"After my return from China, Trump called me and asked me to cancel the agreement, so I also refused, and he threatened me with massive demonstrations that would topple me. Indeed, the demonstrations started and then Trump called, threatening to escalate in the event of non-cooperation and responding to his wishes, so that the third party (Marines snipers) would target the demonstrators and security forces and kill them from the highest structures and the US embassy in an attempt to pressure me and submit to his wishes and cancel the China agreement, so I did not respond and submitted my resignation and the Americans still insist to this day on canceling the China agreement and when the defense minister said that who kills the demonstrators is a third party, Trump called me immediately and physically threatened me and defense minister in the event of talk about the third party."


The reliable Based Cat in Iraq seems to confirm the timeline:

TØM CΛT @TomtheBasedCat - 4:00 UTC · Jan 7, 2020
Yes a 50-person delegation visited China in 2019 and then the protests started on October 1st until the Arbaeen dates, then picked up again on Oct 25th. I'm skeptical about the 3rd party but the timing itself was interesting. The flames were fanned by Gulf media and Al-Hurra.
Al-Hurra is a U.S. government financed Arab language TV outlet.


Southfront has a similar report, seemingly from a different source, with some additional context.

While this talk has not yet been confirmed it does sounds highly plausible.


The chicken-hawks of Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, who have all lobbied the U.S. for war on Iran, now fear the consequences:

Gulf Arab states, potential targets for retaliation after the U.S. assassinated Iran’s top general, are working on multiple tracks to try to keep tensions between Tehran and Washington from building into a military confrontation.

Earlier today Russia's President Vladimir Putin arrived in Damascus for talks with the Syria's President Assad. Could there also be a meeting between Putin and Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah? Putin will next go to Turkey to inaugurate the gas pipeline between Russia and Turkey.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby UlanBatori » 13 Jan 2020 21:44

NOW i c what the Turkish military is doing in libya: providing logistics for ISIS. Same as in Syria.
King of Jordan says ISIS on the rise, warns thousands of fighters moved to Libya from Syria’s Idlib, spelling more trouble for EU
13 Jan, 2020 12:22
The monarch said that his “major concern is that we have seen over the past year the re-establishment and rise of ISIS, not only in southern eastern Syria but also in western Iraq.”

Several thousand fighters have left Idlib through the northern border and have ended up in Libya; that is something that we in the region, but also our European friends, will have to address in 2020.
Ironically, the timeframe given by King Abdullah corresponds with the announcement of a decisive victory over IS by US President Donald Trump, who repeatedly praised himself for the achievement in early 2019. After said ‘victory’, however, the terrorist group is apparently on the rise again.


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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby habal » 13 Jan 2020 23:51

New footage broadcast by CNN from the ain al-assad base shows that the underground fortifications have been penetrated too. Really was nowhere to hide for these troops.


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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby UlanBatori » 14 Jan 2020 00:37

The assumption is that on the first day of a war, given the requisite months of preparation, the US will
a) hammer the air defense radars and C^3 infrastructure
b) strike all missile launch sites and storage locations.
I do not believe that either Iran or Putinistan, have the necessary technical superiority to counter these in time.
Once a) and b) are done, it becomes a massacre as in Iraq 1&2, and Israel-Syria Bekaa Valley 1982. (Where is the Bekaa Valley, is it below the Golan or bordering Lebanon?) Russia may have the numbers and concentrations to hit back for a couple of days but I don't think they have the non-nuke numbers needed to have 30-day depth. Except in the mainland Mother Russia.The WW2 tank armies are not relevant anymore and their Air force, for all its glory in Syria has also thinned out due to starvation. This is where those X carrier groups, killer/SLCM subs, and Y airbases all around the world, make all the difference. IOW, Russia will sit on their hands: there is no Mutual Defence Treaty with Iran AFAIK.
So Iran has to grit their teeth and bear it - cannot afford to risk all-out war or even a Limited War with their homeland battered, not invaded.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby UlanBatori » 14 Jan 2020 00:51

From the Mother Of All Battles department
issued an order to implement a law blacklisting the US Department of Defense as “terrorist organization,” Tasnim reports. Rouhani called on the relevant Iranian organizations to implement the law which was passed by Tehran’s parliament last Tuesday.
According to the vote, “all members of the Pentagon, the affiliated institutions and companies, and the US commanders who planned and perpetrated [the] assassination” of Qasem Soleimani, former commander of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), were blacklisted.
The law has been endorsed by the Guardian Council of the Constitution, the highest legislative body in Iran.
In April 2019, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council described US Central Command forces in West Asia as a “terrorist group,” Xinhua said. The move came in response to the US designating the IRGC as “a foreign terrorist organization.”

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby UlanBatori » 14 Jan 2020 02:31

Cryptic report from Smirnoff/Vodkov:
Syrian civilians could leave a de-escalation zone in the Idlib province via three new checkpoints, the Russian Defense Ministry has said.
Many requests had been received from Syrian civilians in Idlib in areas controlled by armed groups to return to their homes in territory controlled by Syrian government forces, the statement issued late on Sunday added. The Russian military warned armed groups to allow people to leave Idlib if they want to. {sounds like the confident Soviets of old.. as in "v have won the hearts and minds of ur Turkish sponsors"}
Local military sources earlier said that the Syrian Army has prepared three humanitarian corridors for civilians to leave Idlib. They are located in the area of ​​the cities of Al-Hobeit in the south of Idlib, Abu Adh Dhuhur in the east, and Al-Hadher in the south of Aleppo province, the sources were quoted as saying.
The Turkish Defense Ministry said on Friday that Moscow and Ankara agreed to introduce a ceasefire in the province. On December 19, the Syrian Army started a new military operation in southeastern Idlib to clear the area of terrorists. By December 24, more than 40 villages had reportedly been retaken by the government troops.

Are they betting that moderate child-beheaders left in Idlib will melt away to Turkey and Libya, and avoid needless casualties/damage? The warning sounds like Marshal Zhukov before the Oder barrage. Putin visit to the main control room in Damascus might have been to iron out the details for a swift and massive final drive.

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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Postby UlanBatori » 14 Jan 2020 02:42

Heavy missile launchers.
Air Strikes, southern Idlib. Place looks pulverized already
Armor coming in, also more missile launchers
Very small numbers. Must be a very spread-out deployment to tighten the net.

Attack repelled, southeast Idlib.
The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) has repelled a ground attack led by al-Qaeda-affiliated Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) on its positions in the southeastern Idlib countryside, the commander of the Russian Reconciliation Center in Syria revealed on January 11. In an official statement, Maj. Gen. Yuri Borenkov said that the attack, that targeted the town of Jarjanaz on January 10, was launched from the nearby town of Talmenes.
“Up to 200 militants and 30 pickups with large-caliber machine guns were involved in the attack. With point fire from the tanks and artillery of Syrian government forces, the attack was repulsed, the militants returned to their initial positions,” the statement reads.
A day earlier, a source in the SAA told SouthFront that the army foiled a large-scale attack that was planned by HTS and its allies. Artillery and aerial strikes targeted the terrorists while they were amassing near Jarjanaz, said the source.
A new ceasefire on Greater Idlib is set to become active at today’s midnight. The ceasefire was brokered by Russia and Turkey. Once the ceasefire is implemented, the SAA will be opening three humanitarian corridors around the region. By attempting to launch a large-scale attack before a pre-planned ceasefire, HTS and its allies are demonstrating their hostile attitude. The terrorist groups sabotaged several similar ceasefires over the last year. More on this topic: Syrian Army To Open Three Humanitarian Corridors For Civilians In Greater Idlib


So Vodkov has taken direct control of the ground *AND** air operation. No nonsense, no hiding any more.
Putin and Assad at Mariamite Cathedral, Syria, planning to invite Trump.

Civilian exit checkpoint


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