Maldives Civil-Military Issues

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Philip
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Post by Philip »

Remember sh*try little islands that won wars? Malta, Hawaii, Midway, not to mention Great Britain too!The Maldives as a Chin base will be the complete enforcement of India.We might as well surrender Asian hegemony to the Chins straight away and start learning mandarin if we don't act.And don't forget that the majority of Maldivians are under the dictators jackboot and want us to intervene.What more do we need? I fear that Mr.M is like the lion in The Wizard of Oz..with no courage.I am waiting for him to prove me wrong.
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Post by Manish_P »

chetak wrote: To contain India, the hans have encircled us and as everyone has seen, we did not do jackshit about it because our "neighbors" colluded with the enemy.
chetak wrote: WTF would the beedis need fighter aircraft?? and submarines?? against whom?? and yet they demand concession after concession from India and that too, after having fully sold out to china.
chetak wrote:We are neither a great power (yet) nor are we vassals of anyone, least of all the amrekis.
+1 to all of the above.

chetak wrote: We cannot jeopardize our chance of getting Modi back for another term just to prop up some expendable quranic yahoos who managed to cover themselves in their own schitt again, and are, as usual, screaming for India to wash it off.
Not sure i understand your point here sir. Are you perhaps saying that we will start/go to the rescue and perhaps be back-stabbed by the powers-that-be thus break the halo around Modi and make him look powerless..
chetak wrote:With our meager defence spending, we will, more than likely never become a great power and the chances of us becoming someone's vassal is increasing by the day.
+1 to the first part of the sentence
chetak wrote: If Modi goes, we will become OBORed and CPECed and also de FCRAed, the very next day.
It does seem more possible.. but perhaps not probable. But who knows what the temptation of the Noble, Magsaysay, Oscar et all will do to our politicos.. especially those with WKK, track two leanings
chetak wrote: We need to be watchful and consolidate our national strength for our purposes and not waste our treasure and time on some shitty mullah ridden godforsaken island in the middle of nowhere.
No, not unless we get a very good deal (permanent/long term military base, protection treaty etc etc) in return.
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Post by Manish_P »

Philip wrote:Remember sh*try little islands that won wars? Malta, Hawaii, Midway, not to mention Great Britain too!The Maldives as a Chin base will be the complete enforcement of India.We might as well surrender Asian hegemony to the Chins straight away and start learning mandarin if we don't act.And don't forget that the majority of Maldivians are under the dictators jackboot and want us to intervene.What more do we need? I fear that Mr.M is like the lion in The Wizard of Oz..with no courage.I am waiting for him to prove me wrong.
Those sh*tty little islands were, and some still are, occupied by the winners (Malta is part of the Eurozone and a predominantly christian country - same as most countries of the Eurozone)... with a permanent, strong military presence.

We need to ensure this when we go in, this time. Else there will be many more next times, and more frequently too.
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Post by Singha »

maldives is not borneo, sri lanka or yemen where armies can get in trouble.

the downside risk is very low there. ofcourse we need a GICPS - greater indian co-prosperity sphere deal with the new SOB giving us a 99 yr lease on some suitable rock and a permanent desk at airport immigration to screen out undesirables coming and going , back ended live to our NIA databases.

all outlying elements must be cleaned of jihadis and our coast guard setup shop to see who comes and goes.
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Post by Manish_P »

^ +1
chetak
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Post by chetak »

Manish_P wrote:
chetak wrote: To contain India, the hans have encircled us and as everyone has seen, we did not do jackshit about it because our "neighbors" colluded with the enemy.
chetak wrote: WTF would the beedis need fighter aircraft?? and submarines?? against whom?? and yet they demand concession after concession from India and that too, after having fully sold out to china.
chetak wrote:We are neither a great power (yet) nor are we vassals of anyone, least of all the amrekis.
+1 to all of the above.

chetak wrote: We cannot jeopardize our chance of getting Modi back for another term just to prop up some expendable quranic yahoos who managed to cover themselves in their own schitt again, and are, as usual, screaming for India to wash it off.
Not sure i understand your point here sir. Are you perhaps saying that we will start/go to the rescue and perhaps be back-stabbed by the powers-that-be thus break the halo around Modi and make him look powerless..
chetak wrote:With our meager defence spending, we will, more than likely never become a great power and the chances of us becoming someone's vassal is increasing by the day.
+1 to the first part of the sentence
chetak wrote: If Modi goes, we will become OBORed and CPECed and also de FCRAed, the very next day.
It does seem more possible.. but perhaps not probable. But who knows what the temptation of the Noble, Magsaysay, Oscar et all will do to our politicos.. especially those with WKK, track two leanings
chetak wrote: We need to be watchful and consolidate our national strength for our purposes and not waste our treasure and time on some shitty mullah ridden godforsaken island in the middle of nowhere.
No, not unless we get a very good deal (permanent/long term military base, protection treaty etc etc) in return.
Going into the maldives will invariably/inevitably mean a regime change and that too in a muslim country with alleged ulterior motives being attributed to Modi. If some local people die there during the operations, there will be an upsurge in sentiments in India with the left and the congis going to town about interference in the internal affairs of a sovereign nation. India will get roasted by the BBC/CNN/al jazeera type press internationally.

The UN will get involved right away with the hans wielding their veto as required to undermine and block us at every turn.

The US, UK europe will not fully support us in this venture, except maybe with some vaguely worded, weakass, wishy washy philosophical statements. We will inflame muslim sentiments in the region and the paki/beedi momin from across the border will redouble their dastardly efforts.

many maldivian "refugees", suddenly seeing a grave threat to their lives will flood into India and many will never ever leave. Just like the beedis did in 1971.

We are doing OK presently, why rock the boat for some dubious reasons that have very good chances of hurting India.
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Post by abhik »

The US reportedly has military bases in 70 countries. In how many of those countries will it win a popularity contest? It's one to suggest an isolationist policy but hope there is no delusion that we will become anything more than a turd world power.
chetak
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Post by chetak »

Singha wrote:maldives is not borneo, sri lanka or yemen where armies can get in trouble.

the downside risk is very low there. ofcourse we need a GICPS - greater indian co-prosperity sphere deal with the new SOB giving us a 99 yr lease on some suitable rock and a permanent desk at airport immigration to screen out undesirables coming and going , back ended live to our NIA databases.

all outlying elements must be cleaned of jihadis and our coast guard setup shop to see who comes and goes.
After doklam, what if the hans are itching for a fight to restore their "honor"??

Who else do you think will come to help you??

Best way would be to send in just the IN first, sort of, to test the waters (pun intended), and also see if the hot heads will cool off.

Show the flag from the P8s, perhaps??

Followed by some big ships, tanker and MARCOS.??
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Post by pushkar.bhat »

chetak wrote:
Singha wrote:maldives is not borneo, sri lanka or yemen where armies can get in trouble.

the downside risk is very low there. ofcourse we need a GICPS - greater indian co-prosperity sphere deal with the new SOB giving us a 99 yr lease on some suitable rock and a permanent desk at airport immigration to screen out undesirables coming and going , back ended live to our NIA databases.

all outlying elements must be cleaned of jihadis and our coast guard setup shop to see who comes and goes.
After doklam, what if the hans are itching for a fight to restore their "honor"??

Who else do you think will come to help you??

Best way would be to send in just the IN first, sort of, to test the waters (pun intended), and also see if the hot heads will cool off.

Show the flag from the P8s, perhaps??

Followed by some big ships, tanker and MARCOS.??
Chetak we are already showing the flag for the last three days. Its just being done in a very benign manner. Cannot share more details.
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Post by Singha »

the lankans have trained their SF units https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Forces_(Maldives)

no clue about how many and where based.

Image

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Singha
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Post by Singha »

SiddharthS
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Post by SiddharthS »

Go to UN, America, SAARC?; Fearlfull of China in a Virtual Indian territory?; worried about the international media?. What kind of impairment the descendents of Kautilya, Maurya, Shivaji and Bajirao are suffering from. There is a long line of PM's not doing the right thing and jeopardizing Indian interest and making India less secure.
Nehru : Not giving a go ahead to Bhabha to test. Going to the UN rather than just ramming through pak till the afghan border and cutting off sino-pak link.
same with Shastri, not ramming though and giving away treasures of war.
Indira gandhi : Terminating the open nuclear testing after 74. Not destroying the kahuta.
I K gujral: Dismantling RAW assets in pakistan.
Vajpayee: Imposing voluntary moratorium on nuke testing.
And the less said about MMS the better.

If Modi doesn't act steadfastly and loses Maldives, he'll be jeopardizing Indian interest, subsequently, making India less secure.
Singha wrote:by that account nothing is a threat until the missiles start to fly.
chinese occupation of SCS is not a threat.
chinese base in gwader is not threat
chinese base in myanmar also will not be threat
a floating cheen base off mumbai harbour will not be a threat , because they can only float in peacetime but not survive in wartime!!

power is shaped by what happens in 99.9999% peace

either step up and take charge or go home. dont talk big but not deliver anything, be resigned as a bit player and vassal of the great powers

even a budding global pawa like US in 1900 sent a "great white fleet" steaming around the world. not to sell carrots but to show the flag. at relatively a huge power differential with the UK and germany of the time. and here we are afraid of dipping our toes in the pond lol
+100

Much(if not all) of the strategic objectives are accomplished through Peacetime domination .
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Post by Singha »

so the hard core of the resistance will be the SF units, whose assets seem to be some light field guns, MRAPs with MMG, and carl gustav rifles.
then there is the regular army , coast guard
last come the police who are usually the most defiant and zealots of any regime, carefully hand picked for loyalty

we will need to secure the airport from the sea using marcos, then land C17s / C130 there with more people. this cannot be done if any manpads or even carl gustav lurkers are in vicinity.

so a seaborne landing at multiple points is perhaps safest to start with using the Jalashwa to cart whatever we need.
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Post by Singha »

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Chandragupta
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Post by Chandragupta »

chetak wrote:
abhijitm wrote:It is exact same way we lost Nepal to china. It is time for Maldives to follow the suit while we twiddle thumbs.
There is hatred in nepal for India just like in the maldives.

This has been going on for decades.

We have foolishly romanticized the nepal engagement with folksy gurkha soldiers and the tales of their valor, completely overlooking the ground realities. The mahadeshis are of Indian origin and they sought political power in nepal going against the grain, as it were, and the nepalis would not accept such a premise.

We have that status in nepal that the ugly american has the world over and that is why we lost out.

why repeat a failing experience in the maldives.

India would not win any elections for popularity in lanka, beediland, nepal, myanmar, where the populace all have the same feeling.

Our stupid MEA has had a very arrogant big brotherly attitude of barely disguised contempt for these people. The dolts in the MEA have run roughshod over the neighborhood for far too long for us to be able to rectify the situation quickly.
They can afford to hate us exactly because of this attitude -
We need to be watchful and consolidate our national strength for our purposes and not waste our treasure and time on some shitty mullah ridden godforsaken island in the middle of nowhere.
Do they hate Cheen? No. Do they want to hate Cheen? Lord knows yes! But they can't afford to hate Cheen because Cheen will insert an unoiled danda in their backside. But they can afford to hate India because everyone hates the dithering nincompoop giant and mocks him. All we do is whine & complain yet when it comes to do something we dither & lose the opportunity.

If we ever showed the political will backed by hard military power to fight for our interests & ensure we get our way in our neighbourhood, all this hatred will not survive 2 minutes. Nepalese, Beedis, Lankans, Maldivians, even Pakis will show up with a red carpet on their back, waiting for us to set foot and bring a military band to sing our national anthem.
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Post by Singha »

smallish airport but packed with large heavies due to tourist traffic from europe

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Post by Singha »

sudarshan
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Post by sudarshan »

chetak wrote: There is hatred in nepal for India just like in the maldives.

This has been going on for decades.

We have foolishly romanticized the nepal engagement with folksy gurkha soldiers and the tales of their valor, completely overlooking the ground realities. The mahadeshis are of Indian origin and they sought political power in nepal going against the grain, as it were, and the nepalis would not accept such a premise.

We have that status in nepal that the ugly american has the world over and that is why we lost out.

why repeat a failing experience in the maldives.

India would not win any elections for popularity in lanka, beediland, nepal, myanmar, where the populace all have the same feeling.

Our stupid MEA has had a very arrogant big brotherly attitude of barely disguised contempt for these people. The dolts in the MEA have run roughshod over the neighborhood for far too long for us to be able to rectify the situation quickly.
You can either protect national interests, or try and win a popularity contest. Regardless of which option you take, *you will not win that popularity contest.* You want India to be like China, which politely gave up the option of invading Tibet, as a result of which Tibet is today a free country which loves China? Or you want India to emulate the US, which voluntarily agreed not to blow up the Bikini atolls, out of consideration for the locals, and which gracefully refused to take Diego Garcia? China and the US might both have won popularity contests by peacefully giving up all these options, but you see how weak and puny they are today, as a result? Oh - wait....

India lost out in Nepal by not being tough enough, and that's a mistake the Chinese will never make. That's why China is winning in Nepal.
We need to be watchful and consolidate our national strength for our purposes and not waste our treasure and time on some shitty mullah ridden godforsaken island in the middle of nowhere.
IOW, "not even a blade of grass grows there!" This is like the Cuban crisis for India, and during that crisis, the entire American spectrum, hawks, doves, the whole lot, were all unanimous that the most dangerous option was to *do nothing.*
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Post by chetak »

pushkar.bhat wrote:
chetak wrote:
After doklam, what if the hans are itching for a fight to restore their "honor"??

Who else do you think will come to help you??

Best way would be to send in just the IN first, sort of, to test the waters (pun intended), and also see if the hot heads will cool off.

Show the flag from the P8s, perhaps??

Followed by some big ships, tanker and MARCOS.??
Chetak we are already showing the flag for the last three days. Its just being done in a very benign manner. Cannot share more details.
Good to know, good to know.
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Post by nvishal »

Essentially, many of you guys are saying that maldives has a death wish. That it has nothing to loose. That it will ally itself strategically with china and let it build a base on its soil.

I can understand pakistan doing all of the things above. I'm yet to understand why the srilankans or myanmar would do it.

Why would maldives do it? Is it because it in sinking in water? Is it because of ghazwa - china will give india to them?
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Post by nachiket »

nvishal wrote:Essentially, many of you guys are saying that maldives has a death wish. That it has nothing to loose. That it will ally itself strategically with china and let it build a base on its soil.

I can understand pakistan doing all of the things above. I'm yet to understand why the srilankans or myanmar would do it.

Why would maldives do it? Is it because it in sinking in water? Is it because of ghazwa - china will give india to them?
Why did the Lankans hand over Hambantota to the Chinese?
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Post by nvishal »

nachiket wrote:Why did the Lankans hand over Hambantota to the Chinese?
Did you just say that the srilankans do not fear an indian invasion?
Philip
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Post by Philip »

The reason the Chins are in both places becos despotic corrupt rulers took huge loans from Chin moneylenders,
huge kickbacks for themselves and their coterie and unable to payback started selling the family silver , their precious territory to the Chins.

In Sri Lanka an over confident Rajapakse held an election and lost.Not so in the Maldives where the despot has imprisoned the principal opposition players and is using his tinpot army to stay in power.Not even a fig leaf of democracy to cover his naked ruthlessness.

A naval and air blockade to bring the despot to his senses - if at all possible, v.short deadline, and if he is still defiant go in.Unlike the US in Iraq , here we have a clear end game; elections and restoration of democracy , plus a defence treaty with India which will keep out all firang and external forces and checkmate the Chinese game plan of a maritime base and permanent footprint in the island to throttle India from the sea, part of its string of pearls/ OBOR strategy.
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Post by Cosmo_R »

"Nevertheless, he must be cautious in believing and acting, and must not inspire fear of his own accord, and must proceed in a temperate manner with prudence and humanity, so that too much confidence does not render him incautious, and too much diffidence does not render him intolerant. From this arises the question whether it is better to be loved more than feared, or feared more than loved. The reply is, that one ought to be both feared and loved, but as it is difficult for the two to go together, it is much safer to be feared than loved, if one of the two has to be wanting."

https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Niccol%C3%B2_Machiavelli
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Post by chetak »

Maldives' crisis not just an internal political struggle, it's an unfortunate result of China's smash and grab neo-colonialism




Maldives' crisis not just an internal political struggle, it's an unfortunate result of China's smash and grab neo-colonialism

Sreemoy Talukdar Feb 07, 2018

Writing in an Indian newspaper on Wednesday, former Maldivian president Mohamed Nasheed has again urged India to intervene and restore democracy in the Maldives. While New Delhi is still calibrating its response amid media reports that it has kept the military on standby and is mulling over imposing some sanctions, it is worth remembering that the turmoil in the atoll nation is not just internal politics, it has deep strategic ramifications for India.

Some commentators have argued that the 1988 Operation Cactus-style military op cannot be replicated in 2018 and India would do well to bide its time as the political theatre unfolds. The contention is that any Indian intervention at this stage could be strategically counterproductive and morally indefensible. This argument rests on an assumption that the Maldivian flux is essentially domestic.

It is not. It will be a mistake on India’s part to see the crisis in isolation, as a context-free internal struggle for power which doesn’t have any geopolitical spill. That is the certainly the line China wants the international community to take. Its state-controlled Global Times has already fired the first salvo, warning India against “meddling” in Male’s “internal affairs”.

The unrest in the archipelago is in equal parts strategic and political and has been a long time coming. China lies in the thick of it. Beijing has wormed its way into the Maldives and now threatens to permanently alter the balance of power in South Asia by co-opting the island nation into its aggressive maritime expansion strategy.

China’s long-term strategic objectives in Maldivian thrust involve laying a ‘string of pearls’ around India by acquiring naval bases, exercising hegemonic control over key shipping lanes stretching from the South China Sea to the Indian Ocean and throwing around its global military might.

As this column has argued in the past, letting panda-hugging Abdulla Yameen get away with his authoritarian excesses won’t just be detrimental to Maldivian and India’s interests, it will be tantamount to endorsing the actions of a president who is complicit in China’s efforts to turn the atoll nation into another of its vassal states.

Incidentally, a major part of Nasheed’s column in The Indian Express agonises over the deep Chinese influence in Maldivian economy which is rapidly turning into strategic muscle. The former president writes: “Foreign powers, among them China, are engaged in a ‘land grab’ of Maldivian islands, key infrastructure, and even essential utilities. Shrouded in secrecy, all manner of projects have been awarded to foreign state-run companies.”

In an earlier interview to Reuters, Nasheed had said China has already seized around 16-17 islands through an “opaque leasing process” in the Maldives that consists of around 1190 islets scattered over the Indian Ocean. Only a handful of these is inhabited by the locals.

“It always starts with a real estate project, but it can be turned into something (else)... that China has actually grabbed more land,” the news agency quoted him, as saying.

Allowing for some exaggeration from an exiled former president at odds with the current regime, Nasheed isn’t too far from the truth.

For a country that didn’t have even an embassy presence in the Maldives up until 2011, China has acquired a massive amount of sway into Maldivian economy and is now moulding the nation’s politics in its favour.

President Yameen has defied international pressure to promulgate emergency and martial law in the faraway islands, jailed a former president after letting cops break into his residence at the dead of night, let loose security forces in Supreme Court complex, arrested the chief justice and another Supreme Court judge and forced the apex court to revoke its decision of setting free key political prisoners.

For a leader who apparently enjoys little grassroots support and international credibility, Yameen’s wanton excesses and stubborn defiance raised speculation that China is giving him tacit support. It may be noted that Beijing, unlike the international community, has gone out of its way not to comment on the political instability the in the Maldives or censure Yameen’s undermining of the Constitution or crushing of civil liberties, rule of law and democracy. A pliant figure as the head of state in a strategically important location certainly serves its purpose.

“Nobody should underestimate the influence of China over Yameen. We saw that in the manner in which he recently signed the FTA with China. I think it (support from China) has allowed him to be bold,” Abdulla Shahid, former speaker of the Maldivian Parliament, was quoted as saying in The Times of India.

As Anand Kumar had argued in a 2012 paper 'Chinese Engagement with the Maldives: Impact on Security Environment in the Indian Ocean Region', China’s strategic objectives in the Maldives hadn’t been very successful due to President Nasheed, who was perceived to be ‘India friendly’.

“However, as Chinese economic engagement in the Maldives increases, it might affect the close relationship between India and the Maldives,” he wrote rather presciently in academic journal Taylor and Francis Online.

China’s engagement with Yameen regime has been vast and swift. The measure of its influence lies not merely in the fact that Chinese influence is ubiquitous in the paradisiacal islands from rush of tourists (more than 30 percent of total footfalls), signboards, restaurants, menu cards, contractors, enterprises, hutments, inter-island bridges, ports and other mega infrastructure, Beijing has been able to co-opt India’s close neighbour as a key member of its Belt and Road Initiative and even weigh upon the political establishment to amend the Constitution and change land-holding clause.

It is not a coincidence that following the announcement of China-Maldives maritime silk road partnership in 2014, a year later the Yameen regime “amended the Constitution to allow foreigners to own land in the country on freehold basis on condition that the investment should be to the tune of at least $1 billion and 70 percent of the project should be on reclaimed land. It's no surprise that these two clauses looked like they were tailored for China.”

Chinese expansionism is also evident in the way it has taken over the Maldivian economy. The free-trade agreement, Maldives’s maiden, allows its fishermen access to world’s largest consumer market. But the balance of trade is hopelessly skewed. The FTA has seen Maldivian imports rise 200 times of the export figure with China and Hong Kong.

Yet another island nation’s sad descent into Chinese debt-trap has begun. From a trade surplus, the country now runs a deficit. The debt-to-GDP ratio now stands at 34.7 percent, and is slated to cross the 50 percent mark within the next three years, reckons IMF.

The two-kilometre China-Maldives Friendship Bridge, linking capital Male with an airport island is being funded by China and is being developed by a Chinese firm, reports Yuji Kuronuma in Nikkei Asian Review. On Hulhumale, a reclaimed island, “another Chinese company is constructing 7,000 homes. The contractor has taken out a loan from the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China... More projects are underway elsewhere, like a housing complex surrounded by a forest on Addu Atoll.”

Along with Chinese presence, a simultaneous churn has seen lessening of Indian footprint. The volume of Chinese imports has crossed Indian goods, and Indian companies are being kicked out of Maldives. GMR, for instance, was asked to leave after its contract to develop the Male International Airport was prematurely cancelled by the Yameen regime.

GMR moved an international tribunal, but the compensation of $270 million was promptly paid by the Maldivian government leading to suspicion in India that China had filled Yameen’s purse. As Indrani Bagchi had reported in The Times of India, in August last year, Yameen disregarded India's request to deny permission to three Chinese warships from docking in the Maldives.

In his newspaper column, Nasheed mentions the airport deal as indicative of the hold China has over the Maldivian economy. “The development of the Ibrahim Nasir international airport is a case in point. President Yameen has revealed a plan to finance the project through $800 million worth of foreign loans — in 2014, China’s EXIM Bank gave a $373 million concessionary loan to upgrade and develop the airport... As I watch my country in exile, I fear that piece by piece, island by island, the Maldives is being sold off to China,” the exiled president writes.

The economic hegemony is being translated into a strategic grip. The totality of Chinese neo-colonial tactics in the Maldives can’t be understood if we disregard the military objective. As Professor N Manoharan writes in an Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies article, “Maldives has emerged as an important 'pearl' in China’s ‘String of Pearls’ construct in South Asia. Given (its) strategic location in the Indian Ocean, Beijing has been vying for a maritime base in the atoll with the primary motive of ensuring the security of its sea lanes, especially the unhindered flow of critically-needed energy supplies from Africa and West Asia through the Indian Ocean.”

As China ramps up its infrastructure projects through a predatory pricing mechanism, like many other South Asian nations including Sri Lanka and Pakistan, Maldives will also be forced to lease or sell its real estate to tide over the debt-trap. This is post-Cold War-era colonialism, where economic tools have replaced military instruments.

Monika Chansoria writes in Sunday Guardian how China “is developing the iHavan Integrated Development Project in the northernmost main sea line of communication joining Southeast Asia and China to West Asia and Europe.” This project is being run on “huge concessional loans/aid financing from China and it is being forecast that the Maldives shall almost certainly default on payments, thereby allowing China to seize a few berthing facilities there.”

India’s actions in the Maldives will have a larger bearing on how smaller South Asian nations adjust themselves in relation to China and India. The dynamic is in a flux. Underlined by Gandhian principles, India’ foreign policy has a strong moral component. At times, however, it is immoral not to act in self-defence. Great powers must exercise its rights, or risk being trampled over by other great powers.
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Post by chetak »

Maldives crisis: Given India's adherence to international law, military intervention presents lose-lose scenario




Maldives crisis: Given India's adherence to international law, military intervention presents lose-lose scenario

Ajay Kumar Feb 07, 2018

The crisis in the tiny Indian Ocean republic of the Maldives continues to escalate. The latest developments being the declaration of a state of emergency by the country's president Abdulla Yameen which was followed by the arrest of two of the judges of the Supreme Court. The declaration of emergency is unique in the sense that it suspends articles in the Maldivian Constitution that give the Supreme Court its jurisdiction effectively suspending human rights and the rule of law in the country.

While ordinarily, India is not actively concerned about such developments in another country, the Maldives falls under what India ordinarily considers her geopolitical sphere of influence. The Maldivian Opposition Leader and its first democratically elected President tweeted calling for an Indian Envoy to intervene with a physical military presence in the country in order to restore the rule of law:
On behalf of Maldivian people we humbly request:
1. India to send envoy, backed by its military, to release judges & pol. detainees inc. Prez. Gayoom. We request a physical presence.
2. The US to stop all financial transactions of Maldives regime leaders going through US banks.

— Mohamed Nasheed (@MohamedNasheed) February 6, 2018
This is not without precedent because, in 1988, India did send a contingent of paratroopers to help the then Maldivian government survive a coup d'etat. We know it as Operation Cactus.

However, this time the circumstances are quite different. Yameen who is at the centre of this current crisis has been engaged in a long drawn-out courtship with both the Chinese and the Saudi Arabians. In fact, apart from Pakistan, the Maldives is the only other South Asian country to have signed a free trade agreement with the Chinese. An agreement that has been seen by some to be an open snub at India.

This makes the situation in the Maldives complicated. In the midst of the global power struggle between India and China, the recent crisis in the Maldives means the country is in play and therefore, any overtures that the Government of India makes right now will be very crucial in determining not just its future relationship with the Maldives but will also have external ramifications on its broader foreign policy objectives.

Indian foreign policy has been undergirded by a fundamental principle. This principle is that India believes in International Law and a rules-based order when it comes to international relations. Currently, International Law prohibits unilateral military intervention into the affairs of other nations except in self-defence.

There is a certain amount of ambiguity about whether an intervention would be permissible in order to avoid a humanitarian crisis from escalating, but there appears to be no humanitarian crisis right now in the Maldives.

An intervention to remedy a breach of human rights though is something that is not permissible under International Law. If this were the case, then it would become legal to invade countries like Iran and Saudi Arabia as they are notorious for violating the human rights of their citizens. International Law is yet to arrive at the point where "preserving democracy" is grounds for intervening in another country.

This is something India ought to consider before it considers military options in the Maldives. It has already placed its forces on standby, but it has not issued orders yet. India's case against China on the international stage is founded on International Law.

The dispute in Arunachal Pradesh, its right to defend Bhutanese interests in Doka La and the Aksai Chin disputes all hinge on demanding that the Chinese abide by International Law and respect concluded treaties.

India's dispute with Pakistan calls upon them to abide by the terms of the Shimla Agreement and respect the Vienna Convention on Consular Relations. In fact, India is currently in litigation before the ICJ seeking to enforce International Law when it concerns the case of Kulbushan Jadhav.

India's view of the South China Sea situation also similarly calls upon the Chinese to abide by International Law and to respect the law of the sea. The need to maintain a harmonious stance when it concerns International Law cannot be understated and India should resist overtures to unilaterally intervene in the Maldives.

However, this does not mean that India is out of options when it concerns the Maldives. India always has sanctions at its disposal. India is free to impose unilateral sanctions on the Maldives to favourably resolve the situation.

India may also take the dispute to and lobby the UN Security Council. While China can always exercise the veto, India can take the route the US did with its invasion of Iraq.

Attempting a bypass of the UNSC through a legal justification that involves no longer recognising Yameen's government as the legitimate Government in the Maldives. This can only be done though after India manages to establish a complete failure of diplomacy and manages to build an international consensus or at least a broad diplomatic coalition against Yameen.

Then it may choose to recognise the Opposition as a legitimate Government and provide some form of legal cover for an intervention and term it as restoring Nasheed to power in the Maldives. This may save India's moral high ground in international affairs should a military solution be required to resolve the present crisis. But an outright show of military strength will only weaken India's hand as far as the Chinese and the Pakistanis are concerned. The Government of India needs to approach this situation tactfully and must avoid bowing down to popular sentiment.
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Post by chetak »

Maldives crisis: With military intervention out, diplomatic heavy lifting only choice for India to secure its interests in Male




Maldives crisis: With military intervention out, diplomatic heavy lifting only choice for India to secure its interests in Male


Tara Kartha, Feb 07, 2018

Another round of political instability has hit the Maldives. The present crisis is hardly unexpected. After all, President Abdulla Yameen has pitted himself against the Judiciary, politicians, sections of the bureaucracy, and in recent times, even the police.

The Maldives is no stranger to political instability. When President Abdul Gayoom voluntarily gave up his seat as president after more than three decades, Maldives earned the honour of being one of the few states to adopt democracy in a time of the so-called "Arab Spring". That the transition happened after considerable pressure from the Opposition is a historical footnote, since it remained a relatively peaceful transition in comparison to the bloodletting in countries like Tunisia. Matters however soon turned awry when the elected President Nasheed was forced to resign after protests against his arrest of a judge.

The presidential election that followed brought Yameen to power. The arrest of Nasheed on terrorism charges and a sentence of 13 years of imprisonment followed shortly thereafter. This, in turn, led to a wave of protests, and the imposition of emergency. To make matters even more complicated, the vice-president was also impeached on alleged attempts to assassinate the president. To round things off, the head of the Adhalaat Party Sheikh Imran Abdulla was also arrested on terrorism charges.

All this arresting of all and sundry expectedly brought together some strange bedfellows. An Opposition coalition was formed that included former presidents Gayoom, Nasheed – who had been arrested at least 20 times – the Adhalaat Party, and Jamhoori Party leader Gasim Ibrahim.

This combined grouping tried to force a no-confidence motion against the Speaker Abdullah Maseeh Mohammed at least twice. The second time was just before the Maldivian independence day when Pakistan prime minister Nawaz Sharif was the chief invitee. The Opposition was able to get the support of disgruntled members of the ruling party, thus winning the numbers to carry its motion.

The president and his group retaliated by disqualifying its rebellious members. The situation came to a head when the Supreme Court ordered the release on 2 February, 2018, of nine jailed Opposition leaders and reinstated the 12 parliamentarians who had been expelled from the ruling party.

While the president publicly swore to follow all constitutional rules and obligations, the numbers were against him. Reinstatement of the parliamentarians would have meant enough numbers for not just a vote against the Speaker but also allowed eventual impeachment proceedings against the president himself.

The court's order for a retrial of former President Nasheed also ran against him, particularly with presidential elections due this year. Caught in a pincer movement, he resorted to precisely the mistakes made by dictators of periods past, by arresting Opposition leaders including former President Gayoom, his son in law, a former defence minister and several other Opposition leaders.

He even dismissed the police chief for trying to implement the court's orders. As the situation began to worsen, he declared a state of emergency, pleading that this was the only way to save the situation. Its unlikely anyone will buy that argument, but as of the time of writing, it appears that the army is standing behind the embattled president. And in the Maldives, the army is a force to reckon with.

Expectedly, both former President Gayoom and Nasheed have called for Indian intervention a la Operation Cactus of 1988, when Indian forces dramatically and effectively ended a coup attempt launched ostensibly by outside forces. At that time, a group of Sri Lankan Tamil militants – for want of a better term – were launched from a freighter off the Maldives, and effectively took over vital installations, while the president took shelter from house to house while appealing for help.

That particular group owed allegiance to the People Liberation Organisation for Tamil Eelam, lost the show for the simple reason that they omitted to close down the airport, allowing Indian paratroopers to land and reverse the situation. That operation has long been suspected to have been masterminded by former President Abdulla Nasir, in the same way, that leader after leader has plotted and planned against his competitor. History repeats itself ad nauseam, and yet to no effect.

Hopefully, history will not need to repeat itself again in terms of a dramatic Indian intervention. Given that officials and garrulous seminarists have been talking about India being the 'net security provider' at every available forum, this might be somewhat difficult. Besides, it's not just us. Other countries like the United States have also christened us similarly, clearly expecting a regional power to flex its muscles when necessary.

It can be argued that notwithstanding the urgent appeals from former presidents, the whole situation is purely an internal matter of the shaky but undoubtedly the sovereign Republic of Maldives.

However, the point is this: If things turn ugly – and it well might – then some 'intervention' may well be needed. Second, if we don't lend a hand, someone else might.

It's no secret that China has taken a giant leap into the tiny island nation with its maritime version of Belt and Road Initiative. Since 2013, when the present government came to power, Beijing's influence has only increased. Apart from assistance to expand the international airport, and development of Hulhule Island and corresponding connecting roads, Beijing chose to send three naval ships to the Maldives last August. Most notably, the present government also chose to hurry through a Free Trade Agreement with China through Parliament in an emergency session.

Parliamentarians argued that they had no chance to go over the 500-page document much less discuss it. The rush was due to the fact that the president was due to visit China shortly thereafter. In the event, the Joint Statement between China and Maldives called for more Chinese investment, language centres, and notably, support from Male for enhancement of a Chinese role in SAARC. China, in turn, agreed not to interfere in the internal affairs of the country, which in plain English meant that it supported the government at a time of severe political turmoil and opposition.

It seems therefore that the Maldives has learnt from Kautilya in befriending China, as a balance against the near 'not quite enemy' India. The fact that the Narendra Modi government has stonily refused to visit the country at a time of 'neighbourhood first' policy is hardly lost on the leadership in Male. At a second level, it has also chosen to befriend Pakistan, who has offered a $10 million defence credit line to the Maldivian Armed Forces.

There is also an MOU between the training institutions of the respective foreign services. The chief of Maldivian National Forces major general Ahmed Shiyam is a product of the National Defense College as well as an alumnus of the Command and Staff College at Quetta. While the chief is a man of considerable stature, there has been persistent worry that the army may plan to take over power itself, a choice that is likely to be applauded by their counterparts in China and Pakistan.

India has, therefore, two choices. A military intervention at this time will seem – and will be – outright interference in the internal matters of a sovereign country. However, India does not have the luxury of not doing anything, particularly if violence escalates. A first choice is the obvious one, of diplomatic heavy lifting.

The US and other major powers are willing to weigh in to pressure the president to follow constitutional norms, together with assurances of his safety. Saudi Arabia may also be persuaded to join the call. If violence escalates significantly, a second choice – or lack of it – may be forced on Delhi.

New Delhi may consider consultation with the Maldivian Defence Forces and police in restoring order, with the objective of setting up the mechanism for a government of national unity under whom new elections can be held. Indian support for such a Maldivian initiative that brings together designated civilian and military leaders, may be emphasised with a naval 'visit', carrying a contingent of commandos.

There are however several lessons to be learnt for the longer term. For one, as regards to the neighbourhood, it is wise to nip trouble in the bud. You don't need to read 'The Godfather' to remember that. A second one is, build your own bridges – made up of several hundred ships that trade in everything the Maldives needs, including drinking water. Kickstart container operations by the Shipping Corporation of India as a beginning. Otherwise, a certain faraway nation will be building its own bridges instead.
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Post by KL Dubey »

Abdulla Yameen reveals his true colors very clearly:

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/on-cris ... ia-1810025

If this is not enough, I don't know what else we are waiting for. The world is watching to see if India acts decisively.

I read on "The Wire" (admittedly a fake/doctored news outlet) that none of the key advisors - Swaraj, Doval, Gokhale - are in New Delhi.
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Post by Anant »

Maldives giving India the proverbial middle finger. Why are we accepting this from this pipsqueak?

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/on-cris ... nts_result
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Post by sudarshan »

Maldives oppn has already twice asked India to intervene. If that isn't pretext enough, what is? That's the proverbial "vettalai-pakku" (Tamil for betel leaf and arica nut, a term for an unambiguous welcome). It doesn't get any better than this, pretext wise, for a hefty intervention. If India does restore the former president to power and he publicly thanks India for it, who is to blame India? Benefits are massive, but God knows what the cost side of the equation is like, that faces Modi.
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Post by pushkar.bhat »

Twitter is reporting that airport electricity is now cut off. Faithful of the YAG regime have been squeaking about defending the country since morning.
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Post by pankajs »

Maldives giving us the middle finger or not sending envoys or bad mouthing India/Modi is no reason for us to go into that country. Foreign policy should not be emotion driven just interest driven.

However, Maldives opposition asking for help against a patently illegal power grab is reason enough to go help sort things out over there i.e. go help hold free and fair elections that is just round the corner.
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Post by pankajs »

The current president had overreached this time and soon enough he will be booted out. Wheels are being set into motion. The context is being set.

http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=58550
Maldives: Democracy under ‘all-out assault,’ warns UN rights chief

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/united- ... is-1809981
United Nations Security Council To Take Up Maldives Crisis

http://indianexpress.com/article/world/ ... s-5055700/
Maldives crisis: US asks President Abdulla Yameen to restore rights of people, institutions
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Post by Singha »

sinic invasion is usually fronted by housing project. 2km bridge from male to airport island.
next phase will be a port .... followed by a djibouti type base to guard that port and ensure security of chinese tourists right.
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Post by ShauryaT »

KL Dubey wrote: I read on "The Wire" (admittedly a fake/doctored news outlet) that none of the key advisors - Swaraj, Doval, Gokhale - are in New Delhi.
Who is Gokhale? BTW: Swaraj is in KSA, could very well be setting the ground.
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Post by pushkar.bhat »

ShauryaT wrote:
KL Dubey wrote: I read on "The Wire" (admittedly a fake/doctored news outlet) that none of the key advisors - Swaraj, Doval, Gokhale - are in New Delhi.
Who is Gokhale? BTW: Swaraj is in KSA, could very well be setting the ground.
Gokhale is current Foreign Secretary of India.
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Post by ShauryaT »

^Thanks, S. Jaishankar's successor.
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Post by Philip »

Yaaas, international law...when a despot destroys democracy the mice in the MEA will rush to find loopholes to save his skin, not the skins of the opposition and people incarcerated by him ! Any amount of excuses are being trotted out by the Lutyens Bagh establishment not to intervene as they don't want to work hard for India defending our sovereign interests!

It is shocking to see how weak at the knees the Delhi Durbar gets after one rant from a Chin establishment mouthpiece.....only a deathly silence.We aren't even putting the screws upon the Maldivian despot.Do we really think that Indian "sanctions " will work? The moment we announce that , a huge convoy from China will arrive bearing all manner gifts for little M.

Look at the way Pence is denouncing NoKo on his Asian our.
The Chins must be wildly celebrating at Indian impotence in , for that is what our diplomacy is , impotent.
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Post by KL Dubey »

pushkar.bhat wrote:Twitter is reporting that airport electricity is now cut off. Faithful of the YAG regime have been squeaking about defending the country since morning.
Can you please post the twitter source ?
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Post by pushkar.bhat »

KL Dubey wrote:
pushkar.bhat wrote:Twitter is reporting that airport electricity is now cut off. Faithful of the YAG regime have been squeaking about defending the country since morning.
Can you please post the twitter source ?

https://twitter.com/wahydibrahim/status ... 0196955136

Attached.
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