Maldives Civil-Military Issues

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Aarvee » 20 Feb 2018 09:28

pankajs wrote:See, your first mistake is in comparing Taiwan with India. Compare Taiwan with Maldives. Yameen too could argue is that Mladives too is just trying to survive as an independent nation like Taiwan. Would you agree hat is fair? So lest assume Maldives goes into the Chinese orbit just as Taiwan has been in the US orbit for the past 50+ years under a security pact. .......
Fear is a big deal. It distorts once perceptions and logic. Facts are there for all to see as the situation evolves around India as compared to what was/is around China. But our fear leads us to believe that the Chinese are 100 ft gaints who can do to India what the Americans couldn't do to China in their heydays.


Taiwan and Chine are not the same as Maldives and India. India did not undergo a coup and the leadership did not go to Maldives and setup a Govt in exile and be an existential threat. China wants to annex Taiwan. We dont want to annex Maldives. We previously helped the Govt of Maldives when they were under attack. Our relationship with Maldives and the relationship between Taiwan and China are not comparable. Please stop trying to draw parallels.

US is not expansionist. They didnt create artificial islands and claim oceans and mountains siting Chinese names. China does.

There is confidence and then there is negligence. Confidence is knowing that you can get a misbehaving neighbor into line with a thappad. Negligence is allowing your known enemy to surround you thinking "Aane do, dekhoonga kya ukhadega".

Why doesnt Russia want NATO bases and their missile shields in Poland? Why didnt the US want Russian presence in Cuba?

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby pankajs » 20 Feb 2018 09:43

Aarvee wrote:
pankajs wrote:See, your first mistake is in comparing Taiwan with India. Compare Taiwan with Maldives. Yameen too could argue is that Mladives too is just trying to survive as an independent nation like Taiwan. Would you agree hat is fair? So lest assume Maldives goes into the Chinese orbit just as Taiwan has been in the US orbit for the past 50+ years under a security pact. .......
Fear is a big deal. It distorts once perceptions and logic. Facts are there for all to see as the situation evolves around India as compared to what was/is around China. But our fear leads us to believe that the Chinese are 100 ft gaints who can do to India what the Americans couldn't do to China in their heydays.


Taiwan and Chine are not the same as Maldives and India. India did not undergo a coup and the leadership did not go to Maldives and setup a Govt in exile and be an existential threat. China wants to annex Taiwan. We dont want to annex Maldives. We previously helped the Govt of Maldives when they were under attack. Our relationship with Maldives and the relationship between Taiwan and China are not comparable. Please stop trying to draw parallels.

US is not expansionist. They didnt create artificial islands and claim oceans and mountains siting Chinese names. China does.

There is confidence and then there is negligence. Confidence is knowing that you can get a misbehaving neighbor into line with a thappad. Negligence is allowing your known enemy to surround you thinking "Aane do, dekhoonga kya ukhadega".

Why doesnt Russia want NATO bases and their missile shields in Poland? Why didnt the US want Russian presence in Cuba?

You are looking at Taiwan and Mladives from your POV where as I am looking at Taiwan and Maldives from Taiwan and Maldives POV. Both are scared of their larger neighbour and both are seeking to balance their larger neighbour with an external power. It is comparable to that extent no matter what the history. So there is enough parallel to evaluate Maldives situation and its future impact on India.

Again your POV on the US not being expansionist power. The Chinese and the Russian views are quite different I can assure you .. but you already admit that by bringing in Russia and NATO into the discussion. You make my point.

Sure Russia doesn't want NATO at its doorsteps or American did not want Russia in Cuba but what about China and US at its doorsteps? Did China want US in SoKo and a US security umbrella for Taiwan, one of its *core* pillars?

How did US presence so close to its *mainland* play out on your 2 primary concerns
1. Make China *loose face* in the world for ever?
2. Prevent China's rise in the world?

All evidence I see point to the contrary. US couldn't prevent China's rise despite encircling it. China stature has risen and risen despite US presence in SoKo and US security garuntee against invasion of Taiwan. These are facts.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Singha » 20 Feb 2018 10:28

looking at the huge noises that Cheen made on ONGC doing petroleum exploration off vietnam your views wrong PRC being a just benign power.

it does not matter what maldives thinks or taiwan acts - GOI is duty bound to safeguard indian interests and space. no need to be overly dharmic in foreign policy because foreign policy is not run on dharma, but by a size 12 boot.

US did not try to prevent the rise of China, the US Is *responsible* for triggering the economic rise of china after the Kissinger Nixon deal of 1971 to let go of the USSR and fall in to some middle ground in exchange for trade benefits which started the 1st phase of the chinese manufacturing boom. once the US got addicted to outsourcing of manufacturing and huge profits for the overclass, the rest is history. if not for the US opening western markets to the chinese manufacturing sector, cheen today would be a mix of TSP+India+north korea and no more.

you are saying china will help India rise like that after setting up camp in maldives ? :D

secondly the chinese despite huge manpower losses had fought both the superpowers when they were dirt poor and enforced a costly draw, and equipped themselves with H-bombs well in advance of this singularity of 1971 to backstab the soviets. they had made it amply clear via armed action in 1962 that would not take any "disputed"(to be marked by them) territory takeover lying down.

none of these dynamics and ruthless political elite class apply to india.

we are soft friendly inept labrador waving paws in air, overly friendly vs a muscular and determined mastiff in the red corner

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Aarvee » 20 Feb 2018 10:34

pankajs wrote:All evidence I see point to the contrary. US couldn't prevent China's rise despite encircling it. China stature has risen and risen despite US presence in SoKo and US security garuntee against invasion of Taiwan. These are facts.


:D I give up. I dont understand your thought process.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Singha » 20 Feb 2018 10:37

his thought process is the indian babudom thought process _ "the decision to do nothing is also a decision" :)

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby pankajs » 20 Feb 2018 10:46

Singha wrote:his thought process is the indian babudom thought process _ "the decision to do nothing is also a decision" :)

Quite correct ... Sometimes, but not always, patience is a strategy as I had stated before in one China related thread probably one linked to Doklam.

This again one can learn for China. Taiwan has no future outside China if the current trends persist despite US security guarantees against invasion. The other scenario is change of hearts in Beijing but that is a hopeless case. The only other scenario for an independent Taiwan is if China breaks up before it can do anything wrt Taiwan.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby habal » 20 Feb 2018 11:35

Patience is a strategy only for those who can strike at times when others least expect. That is God level strategy.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby abhijitm » 20 Feb 2018 12:07

pankajs wrote:^
Laughable to say the least ... A destroyer and a frigate will stop India!

It is in fact more worrying to think of Beijing's confidence that that much of force is enough to deter Indian adventure in its own backyard of Indian Ocean.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby pankajs » 20 Feb 2018 12:13

I think it is just the reverse. They are trying to run a bluff. Chinese mind games as usual.

Send a small force but maintain a distance. If India does nothing and Yameen retains power claim victory by default via Global times. If India does something or Yameen falls on his own sword call the mission as a anti-piracy mission. No loss of face.

This is all guess work of course. Only time will tell.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby pankajs » 20 Feb 2018 12:17

BTW, In wonder why MoD or MEA releasing the Nasheed-Raksha Mantri photo at this time. They could have spoken on phone up teem times or had a face to face behind the scene.

It is like India is listening to Nasheed while it shooed away the Yameen representative. Signal to whom? Yameen or opposition? Is it signalling India's intent to go in?

Signalling going on from all side ...

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby abhijitm » 20 Feb 2018 12:23

It looks like Beijing has clear strategy of climbing escalation ladder in small steps with close collaboration with Yameen, at the same time carefully calibrating Indian response.

1)SC judges revolt > we didn't react
2) Judges captured, Beijing warning not to interfere, emergency declared > we didn't react. Took stand of no interference in public. Went to UN. Coalition encouraged.
3) Beijing rhetoric about another dhoklam, bought yameen time > we didn't react. Coalition is more encouraged.
4) yameen extended emergency and at the same time Beijing sent small flotilla in IOR > we are still not reacting

After taking stand of no interference it is now very difficult for us to react anything other than diplomatic pressure.

It is difficult to predict next move but looking at the chronology, they are escalating in increasing duration. it is fair to expect next escalation in a month or two.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby pankajs » 20 Feb 2018 12:28

Next escalation might turn be a lot quicker but all depends on what happens in Maldives.

Our initial stand does not prevent us from taking a firmer or even a escalatory stand in the future. What if we para-drop troops into the island? The levers of power are few in a state like Maldives especially if we have co-operation from the inside.

Never limit your options even if we might end up doing nothing. Even a dust-up with the Chinese Navy in the IOR should not be ruled out.
Last edited by pankajs on 20 Feb 2018 12:31, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby abhijitm » 20 Feb 2018 12:30

It seems they want to weed out or buy out entire indian influence before the upcoming prez election. China will establish yameen as the "democratically elected" president by hook or crook.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby abhijitm » 20 Feb 2018 12:32

pankajs wrote:Next escalation might turn be a lot quicker but all depends on what happens in Maldives.

nope, after initial quick moves now they are clearly buying time.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby ashish raval » 20 Feb 2018 12:33

Singha wrote:
ashish raval wrote:Why the f should we bother when the local population is not bothered about their own country or protesting !! Our priority should be how Taiwan, Mongol and Vietnam can have a nbum test in next decade.


And how would you plan to hide from govt goons after the protest on a island barely about 2 sq miles?

Well if the population is scared of government goons they are meant to be slaves not democracy. Law of evolution says, till their generation understand what democracy is!!

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby abhijitm » 20 Feb 2018 12:35

Everything is about upcoming election. India played first move using the judges. May be MEA thought yameen will resign and declare election. But Beijing took the game to next level where we are absolutely not prepared to play.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby gauravsh » 20 Feb 2018 12:42

Singha wrote:his thought process is the indian babudom thought process _ "the decision to do nothing is also a decision" :)

+1
We don't have the ba**s to handle Maldives and posters here are talking about Taiwan. Sometimes a danda is all what is needed, spare the chankian thought for a while.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby abhijitm » 20 Feb 2018 12:45

After SC denounced yameen we should have swiftly derecognized his regime. But we waited.. may be just not to appear to be colluding with SC. Meanwhile yameen arrested them and made them reverse the judgement! now what? We could have still go ahead and derecognize but we didn't. Once you legitimize the regime it is diplomatically difficult to interfere military wise. It looks invasion. If you derecognize then you could intervene in the pretext of restoring democracy.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Neshant » 20 Feb 2018 16:55

Count it down.

On Strike 3, something will take place I predict.

Strike One.

--------

Expect Maldives won't extend Emergency beyond today: India

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 998151.cms

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby adityadange » 20 Feb 2018 16:56

Reuter report: Chinese warships enter East Indian Ocean amid Maldives tensions

SHANGHAI (Reuters) - Eleven Chinese warships sailed into the East Indian Ocean this month, a Chinese news portal said, amid a constitutional crisis in the tiny tropical island chain of the Maldives now under a state of emergency.

A fleet of destroyers and at least one frigate, a 30,000-tone amphibious transport dock and three support tankers entered the Indian Ocean, news portal Sina.com.cn said, without linking the deployment to the crisis in the Maldives or giving a reason.

“If you look at warships and other equipment, the gap between the Indian and Chinese navy is not large,” Sina.com.cn said on Sunday.

It did not say when the fleet was deployed or for how long.

Rivalry between old foes India and China for influence in the Maldives became evident after President Abdulla Yameen signed up to Beijing’s Belt and Road initiative to build trade and transport links across Asia and beyond.

India, which has had longstanding political and security ties to the islands about 400 km (250 miles) away, has sought to push back against China’s expanding presence in the overwhelmingly Muslim country of 400,000 people. Maldivian opposition leaders have urged New Delhi to intervene in the crisis.

China’s Ministry of Defense did not respond to requests for comment.

On Friday, the People’s Liberation Army posted photos and a story on rescue training exercises taking place in the East Indian Ocean on its official Twitter-like Weirdo account.

China earlier this month advised Chinese citizens to avoid visiting the Maldives, famous its luxury hotels, scuba-diving resorts and limpid tropical seas, until political tensions subside.

China has been striking deals with countries in Asia and Africa in line with its Belt and Road initiative to improve imports of key commodities, upgrade infrastructure and trade routes in the region and boost its diplomatic clout.

Yameen imposed the emergency on Feb. 5 for 15 days to annul a Supreme Court ruling that quashed convictions against nine opposition leaders and ordered his government to free those held in prison. He sought parliamentary approval to extend the emergency for 30 days on Monday.

China has drawn criticism in the West for its perceived military buildup of the neighboring South China Sea, where it has built and expanded islands and reefs.

China claims most of the sea where neighbors Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam also have claims.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby VKumar » 20 Feb 2018 17:23

adityadange wrote:Reuter report: Chinese warships enter East Indian Ocean amid Maldives tensions

SHANGHAI (Reuters) - Eleven Chinese warships sailed into the East Indian Ocean this month, a Chinese news portal said, amid a constitutional crisis in the tiny tropical island chain of the Maldives now under a state of emergency.

A fleet of destroyers and at least one frigate, a 30,000-tone amphibious transport dock and three support tankers entered the Indian Ocean, news portal Sina.com.cn said, without linking the deployment to the crisis in the Maldives or giving a reason.

“If you look at warships and other equipment, the gap between the Indian and Chinese navy is not large,” Sina.com.cn said on Sunday.

It did not say when the fleet was deployed or for how long.

Rivalry between old foes India and China for influence in the Maldives became evident after President Abdulla Yameen signed up to Beijing’s Belt and Road initiative to build trade and transport links across Asia and beyond.

India, which has had longstanding political and security ties to the islands about 400 km (250 miles) away, has sought to push back against China’s expanding presence in the overwhelmingly Muslim country of 400,000 people. Maldivian opposition leaders have urged New Delhi to intervene in the crisis.

China’s Ministry of Defense did not respond to requests for comment.

On Friday, the People’s Liberation Army posted photos and a story on rescue training exercises taking place in the East Indian Ocean on its official Twitter-like Weirdo account.

China earlier this month advised Chinese citizens to avoid visiting the Maldives, famous its luxury hotels, scuba-diving resorts and limpid tropical seas, until political tensions subside.

China has been striking deals with countries in Asia and Africa in line with its Belt and Road initiative to improve imports of key commodities, upgrade infrastructure and trade routes in the region and boost its diplomatic clout.

Yameen imposed the emergency on Feb. 5 for 15 days to annul a Supreme Court ruling that quashed convictions against nine opposition leaders and ordered his government to free those held in prison. He sought parliamentary approval to extend the emergency for 30 days on Monday.

China has drawn criticism in the West for its perceived military buildup of the neighboring South China Sea, where it has built and expanded islands and reefs.

China claims most of the sea where neighbors Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam also have claims.



as per Nitin A. Gokhale on Twitter: @nitingokhale

" Apparently only half the story. The task force was spotted by India's ship permanently located in the area and the P*Is as it came out of Sunda on 10 Feb. Task Force waited for a while then turned east and has gone back via Lombok. So nowhere near Maldives"

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby VKumar » 20 Feb 2018 17:24

on Twitter: Times of India: @timesofindia

"Expect Maldives won't extend Emergency beyond today"

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Philip » 20 Feb 2018 17:50

http://www.news.com.au/world/maldive-cr ... 6c1b26828e
Maldives crisis: China sends a naval task force to muscle India, Australia out of power game
CHINA is muscling its way into Australia’s backyard. With an island paradise deep in crisis, the superpower sees a chance.

Jamie Seidel
News Corp Australia NetworkFEBRUARY 20, 20184:10PM
Video
CHINESE warships have entered the Indian Ocean, marking a significant shift in regional power. They’re there to keep India away from Beijing’s interests in the strife-torn Maldive Islands.

And their presence has implications for Australia.
Naval posturing is nothing new. Gunboat diplomacy has been a major player in great power games of thrones for centuries.
But it is odd for it to be played out so close to home.
A scattering of pristine coral islands in the Indian Ocean is becoming the next flash point between New Delhi and Beijing.
The Maldives islands are in the throes of a constitutional crisis.

The little democracy has traditionally been part of India’s “sphere of influence”. And the eastern Indian Ocean is, of course, of significant strategic importance to Australia.

But recently a new kid has arrived on the block.
And now Beijing’s grown enough confidence to let its presence be felt in the area’s affairs.

A naval force of at least one modern destroyer, a frigate, an amphibious assault ship and a support tanker entered the Indian Ocean last week. It is believed destined to linger off the scenic scatterings of coral, sand and palm trees.

International affairs analysts believe they’re there to stop India from intervening.

Beijing, after all, has big plans for these little islands. And it doesn’t want the locals getting in the way.
:mrgreen:
Blue skies. White sand. Clear water. The international tourist resorts of the Maldives have been sidelined by the archipelago’s strategic importance. Picture: AFP

TROUBLE IN PARADISE

These islands are unlikely to appear on anyone’s radar — unless you’re after an idyllic island paradise getaway.
But the Maldives have suddenly become the centre of a struggle for international influence.
It’s in the grip of a constitutional crisis.

Opposition leader Mohamed Nasheed recently dared to state that China was “buying up the Maldives” through President Abdulla Yameen. He highlighted the tiny nation was massively in debt to Beijing, and faced seizure of public assets — such as ports — to help pay it back.

Nasheed, currently in exile in Sri Lanka, said both India and Maldives should be mindful about the cold war brewing in the Indian Ocean because both are neighbouring countries.http://bit.ly/2C2TRyB

We do not want any trouble between India & China, says former Maldives Prez Nasheed
Nasheed, currently in exile in Sri Lanka, said both India and Maldives should be mindful about the cold war brewing in the Indian Ocean because both are neighbouring countries.

EXPLORE MORE: How China has already ‘won’ the South China Sea

It wasn’t long after this Yameen had key opposition figures arbitrarily arrested.

Then Yameen sprung a state of emergency on his people on February 5. It came as the Supreme Court ordered the opposition leaders be released as their arrests had been politically motivated.

So Yameen sent his security forces to arrest the Supreme Court’s judges.

Maldivian police detain a protester demanding the release of political prisoners during a protest in Male, Maldives. Picture: AP
Maldivian police detain a protester demanding the release of political prisoners during a protest in Male, Maldives. Picture: APSource:AP

This has Beijing bothered. It has invested big in a major port project there.
But it’s not the money it’s worried about.
Nor is it the potential collapse of a fragile democracy.

It has implications for its grand ‘One Belt, One Road’ infrastructure campaign. This is intended to vastly expand China’s economic network — and influence — through Asia, the Middle East and into Europe.

“Although traditionally within India’s strategic sphere, in recent years the Maldives has become unstable, impoverished and increasingly desperate,” says the Lowy Institute’s Dr David Brewster.

“Indeed, much of the nation could soon disappear beneath rising sea levels. We may soon see China’s ‘magical island-building ship’ pay a visit to the Indian Ocean.”

India has always been a roadblock in these plans. But now Beijing’s bypass via the Maldives may be in trouble.

Which is why it wants to New Delhi to keep out.

A screen capture of Chinese media footage showing the naval task force currently operating in the eastern Indian Ocean. It includes an amphibious assault ship, a guided missile destroyer and frigate, and a supply ship. Picture: CCTV7
A screen capture of Chinese media footage showing the naval task force currently operating in the eastern Indian Ocean. It includes an amphibious assault ship, a guided missile destroyer and frigate, and a supply ship. Picture: CCTV7Source:Supplied

BELT AND ROAD AMBITIONS

Every day, more than 40 million barrels of oil passes through the strategic “chokepoints” at either end of the Indian 0cean. This includes the Straits of Hormuz, the Gulf of Aden and the Malacca Strait.

All pass through the waters between the Maldives and Ceylon, to India’s south.

It’s a vital arterial supply line. Not least of all to Beijing.

Chinese media is boasting about its new naval presence in the Indian Ocean. It’s been proudly displaying photos and video of its modern ships refuelling and reprovisioning at sea on a mission that is certainly a long way from home.

It’s by no means the first time a Chinese task force has entered the Indian Ocean.

This time things may be different.

undefined
The Australian Strategic Policy Institute says Beijing’s infrastructure activity is part of a determined strategy to extend its influence across the Indian Ocean — at the expense of India.

“India has long been concerned about China’s growing maritime interest in the Indian Ocean region,” says ASPI executive director Peter Jennings. “Over the last decade the PLA-Navy has transited through the region many times to participate in UN and EU backed counter-piracy missions off the Horn of Africa. China has established its first overseas military base at Djibouti and is using the ‘One Belt One Road’ strategy to build extensive port infrastructure in Pakistan and Sri Lanka.”

In that context, the timing of this task force’s arrival in the eastern Indian Ocean is likely to be significant.

A Chinese Type 052D guided missile destroyer tests its antimissile gatling gun during a recent exercise. One of these potent warships is among Beijing's task force in the eastern Indian Ocean. Picture: Xinhua
A Chinese Type 052D guided missile destroyer tests its antimissile gatling gun during a recent exercise. One of these potent warships is among Beijing's task force in the eastern Indian Ocean. Picture: XinhuaSource:Supplied

“Sending warships to operate off the Maldives is a new and concerning development, because it shows that China is trying to exercise influence over a small state more usually within India’s strategic view. New Delhi will read this as a worrying move. It will intensify strategic competition and increase mistrust between China and India.”

RELATED: Analysts war game conflict with China

Some international observers had been expecting New Delhi to send its own task force to exert influence over the tiny islands’ fate. Instead, it has taken a hands-off approach through an appeal to the United Nations. It wants help to help pressure Yameen into restoring democratic values.

So Beijing has stepped into the power vacuum with a task force of its own.
But does India have a strong enough presence to keep Beijing out of its own backyard?
*(Billion $$$ Q!)

The presence of four modern Chinese warships near the Maldive Islands has significant implications for the balance of power in the Indian Ocean. Picture: CCTV7Source:Supplied

OPTIONS OPEN

The chances of any clash between India and China are very low.

But the true impact of the Beijing’s warships is being felt in the corridors and back rooms of power throughout the region.

The warships give Beijing options. And status.

If things take a sudden turn for the worse in the Maldives, it can present itself as an international hero by quickly landing its troops in a “humanitarian intervention”.

It could lift its own citizens out of trouble — and those of other nations. It could impose in a “peace keeping” force to support the local political entity of its choice.

That such acts would irreparably damage India’s influence and status is an unspoken benefit.

It would also cement Beijing’s intimidating presence in what is a key “chokepoint” for its “belt” project.

The under-construction China Maldives Friendship Bridge is pictured near the city of Male. The international community has censured Maldives President Abdulla Yameen for imposing a state of emergency. Picture: AFP
The under-construction China Maldives Friendship Bridge is pictured near the city of Male. The international community has censured Maldives President Abdulla Yameen for imposing a state of emergency. Picture: AFPSource:AFP

If, however, the Maldives crisis does not worsen, the mere presence of Chinese warships acts as a deterrent to Indian intervention. It’s also a neon-sign of Beijing’s determination to wield its new-found influence worldwide.

The force Beijing appears to have deployed may seem small. But it is capable.

The Type 052D guided missile destroyer (Luyang-III class) is among its most modern combat ships. With a crew of 280 and weighing some 7500 tons, it carries a helicopter, land-attack cruise missiles, surface-to-air missiles, surface-to-surface missiles and anti-submarine missiles.

DELVE DEEPER: China’s carriers set to muscle their way into Asia

The Type 054A frigate (Jiangkai II) is one of more than 21 of these modern frigates deployed by Beijing. It is a stealthy design, intended primarily to supplement the air defence of a task force, though it also has some anti-surface and submarine capability.

The Type 071 amphibious transport dock is ideal for humanitarian relief — and landing forces of troops. It can carry a variety of amphibious assault vehicles and landing craft, along with two helicopters. But it also operates hospital and command-and-control facilities. It has accommodation for up to 800 troops.

It’s also backed-up by China’s 28th Anti-Piracy Task Force out of Africa. It’s believed to have wandered closer to the middle of the Indian Ocean in recent weeks.

Indian Navy personnel stand on the INS Vikramaditya, a modified Kiev-class aircraft carrier, similar to the aircraft carrier Liaoning operated by China. Picture: AFP
Indian Navy personnel stand on the INS Vikramaditya, a modified Kiev-class aircraft carrier, similar to the aircraft carrier Liaoning operated by China. Picture: AFPSource:AFP

DEEP IMPLICATIONS

India has not been sitting idle. It has been modernising its own navy. Like China, it is one of just a few nations operating fixed-wing aircraft carriers.

Neither is currently operating near the Maldives.

But New Delhi has also just signed a deal with the Seychelles islands to establish a mid-Indian Ocean naval facility of its own.

EXPLORE MORE: Can the United States keep China’s dragon in check?

“Despite these dramatic developments, the shape and future purpose of China’s naval presence in the Indian Ocean remains an open question,” Dr Brewster says. “We should not automatically assume that the Chinese navy intends to challenge the US Fifth Fleet, at least in the short term. China will remain at a big geographic disadvantage in the Indian Ocean.”

This is because it does not have the complex and extensive supply network that the other major international influence in the region — the US 5th Fleet — has.

But it’s working on it.

Royal Australian Navy ships HMAS Adelaide, Toowoomba and Darwin in formation as part of the Joint Task Group for Indo-Pacific Endeavour 2017. Picture: DefenceSource:Supplied

There’s also bound to be pushback.

“China’s move may reinforce a growing Indian interest to co-operate more closely with Australia,” Mr Jennings says.

“The idea of quadrilateral co-operation between India, Australia, Japan and the US — which was abandoned a decade ago because of worries it would be seen to contain China — is now firmly back on the agenda.

“It would be ironic if China’s rather amateurish attempts to build political influence in the Maldives led to enhanced co-operation between the democracies on Indian Ocean security.”



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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby shiv » 20 Feb 2018 17:57

Soon after China takes over the Maldives it will threaten India not to stop food exports to the Maldives. If we do - China will supply food (eg cereals) and we know that Chinese goods are cheap even if they are shipped from 10 times as far away. China is a big exporter of cereals after all. Next China will threaten Abu Dhabi and force it to continue to supply oil to the Maldives - so that is taken care of. Then China will first coerce tourists from all over the world to continue to come to the Maldives - but if that fails Chinese tourists will come via Gadha port in Pakistan.

Gone.

Maldives will be a happy paradise..

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Singha » 20 Feb 2018 18:16

chinese tourists are already flying directly to these island paradises. even a small airline like air mauritius operates from china.
it need not bring in mutton, murgi and rice from peking, it can buy all that in the gulf or east africa and ship them there. actually it can divert the current business to its own trading houses and make a profit on it too.

india is not indispensable for the maldives to exist.

air maldives flies to 6 chinese cities vs 2 indian cities. QED. and no prizes for guessing who sends more tourists there , india or china.

http://www.maldivian.aero/destinations/

the typical inflated indian elite attitude wont work. we must be cunning, get down in the gutter and roll in the mud to survive out there.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby chetak » 20 Feb 2018 18:33

Singha wrote:chinese tourists are already flying directly to these island paradises. even a small airline like air mauritius operates from china.
it need not bring in mutton, murgi and rice from peking, it can buy all that in the gulf or east africa and ship them there. actually it can divert the current business to its own trading houses and make a profit on it too.

india is not indispensable for the maldives to exist.

air maldives flies to 6 chinese cities vs 2 indian cities. QED. and no prizes for guessing who sends more tourists there , india or china.

http://www.maldivian.aero/destinations/

the typical inflated indian elite attitude wont work. we must be cunning, get down in the gutter and roll in the mud to survive out there.


air maldives flies to 6 chinese cities vs 2 indian cities.


This is more for the maldivians who come to India in large numbers for R&R, including medical tourism.

Many of these fakers simply just don't go back, just like the beedis and the pakis.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby shiv » 20 Feb 2018 19:01

When the Chinese new year begins - Chinese tourists will take a 11 hour flight from Shanghai/Xian/Beijing to Karachi. After a restful night in Karachi they take a 6 hour flight to male. What a lovely holiday that would be..

The other thing is they could threaten India they will occupy Doklam and Arunachal Pradesh then we will get scared and allow flights from Chengdu to Koltaka to Trivandrum and Male

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby ShauryaT » 20 Feb 2018 19:14

This should settle the rumors.
http://indianexpress.com/article/india/ ... y-5071439/
Posting in full so that those fretting can take a chill pill.

No Chinese warship movement detected near crisis-hit Maldives: Indian Navy
According to sources, the Chinese naval movement, which was routine in nature, and through Sunda strait and to the north-west of Australia was approximately 2500 nautical miles away from Maldives.

No Chinese warship movement has been detected near the crisis-ridden Maldives, Indian Navy sources have said amid reports of Chinese naval movement in the Indian Ocean. “We have a very robust surveillance system in Indian Ocean region, which is supported by mission-based deployment in place since July 2017,” a Navy spokesperson stated.

According to sources, the Chinese naval movement was routine in nature and was through Sunda strait to the north-west of Australia. Sources said the Chinese naval movement took place approximately 2500 nautical miles away from the Maldives. Indian Navy has two detachments of Advanced Light Helicopters (SAR variant) while the Indian Coast Guard has a Dornier aircraft positioned in the Maldives. This means that more than three dozen Indian Navy personnel are present in the country at any given time, sources added.

No Chinese warship movement detected near Maldives According to sources, the Chinese naval movement was routine in nature and was through Sunda strait to the north-west of Australia. Sources said the Chinese naval movement took place approximately 2500 nautical miles away from the Maldives

Meanwhile, the Navy is also conducting the month-long Exercise Pashchim Lehar in the Arabian Sea which is witnessing participation of more than 40 ships.

Response from the Navy came after reports emerged that eleven Chinese warships have sailed into the East Indian Ocean this month amid a constitutional crisis in the Maldives, which was under a state of emergency. According to Chinese news portal sina.com.cn, a fleet of destroyers and at least one frigate, a 30,000-tone amphibious transport dock and three support tankers entered the Indian Ocean.

However, the report did not link the deployment to the crisis in the Maldives or giving a reason. “If you look at warships and other equipment, the gap between the Indian and Chinese navy is not large,” the news portal further said.

The rivalry between India and China for influence in the Maldives intensified after President Abdulla Yameen agreed to Beijing’s Belt and Road initiative to build trade and transport links across Asia and beyond. India, which has had longstanding political and security ties to the island, has sought to push back against China’s expanding presence in the overwhelmingly Muslim country of 400,000 people.

In the wake of the Maldives crisis, China had advised its citizens to avoid visiting the Maldives, famous its luxury hotels, scuba-diving resorts and limpid tropical seas, until political tensions subside.
Last edited by ShauryaT on 20 Feb 2018 19:20, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby shiv » 20 Feb 2018 19:16

We have lost. Now that we have lost we need to decide how to live as slaves to the Chinese.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby raghava » 20 Feb 2018 19:20

Mods, i hope you forgive my jubiliant smileys...... this news has truly made my day...

Just like some of you predicted, the mighty PLAN turns tail and runs away when confronted with strength.
:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/chinese-warships-return-to-south-china-sea-118022000890_1.html

However, Indian Navy sources say that, while a Chinese flotilla, including a destroyer and a frigate, had indeed crossed into the Indian Ocean through the Sunda Strait, it turned around and returned to the South China Sea through the Lombok Strait.


So much then for the cheeni "task force"

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby pankajs » 20 Feb 2018 19:21

pankajs wrote:I think it is just the reverse. They are trying to run a bluff. Chinese mind games as usual.

Send a small force but maintain a distance. If India does nothing and Yameen retains power claim victory by default via Global times. If India does something or Yameen falls on his own sword call the mission as a anti-piracy mission. No loss of face.

This is all guess work of course. Only time will tell.

Chinese mind games as usual via some Chinese site and that is all it takes to spook all the Indian *nationalists*. No wonder Maldives is destined to become the next Chinese super fortress.

BTW, just so there is no misunderstanding, this is not a comment on a post or person or a group but the general lack of confidence and the "sky is falling syndrome" that I see even on this forum.

http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 890_1.html
Chinese warships return to SCS as Indian Navy continues heavy deployment
A Chinese warship flotilla that had entered the Indian Ocean, reportedly heading for the Maldives Islands, has turned around and returned to the South China Sea, say highly credible Indian Navy sources.

On Tuesday, Reuters quoted Chinese website Sina.com to report that eleven Chinese warships had entered the Indian Ocean “amid a constitutional crisis in the tiny tropical island chain of the Maldives now under a state of emergency”, clearly suggesting gunboat diplomacy at work.

<snip>

The Indian Navy, meanwhile, continues maintaining a heavy presence of battle-ready warships in the Arabian Sea, including many close to the Maldives.

According to a navy announcement last Wednesday, “A tri-service maritime exercise, codenamed ‘Paschim Lehar’, commenced on the Western seaboard on 12 Feb[ruary 20]18. This exercise includes the participation of a large number of ships, submarines and aircraft from the Western Naval Command of the Indian Navy.”

The announcement also revealed the presence of “Eastern Naval Command, Indian Army, Indian Air Force and the Indian Coast Guard [units that are] also participating to build interoperability.”

In all, India has over 40 ships and submarines deployed in Exercise Paschim Lehar, and a similar number of combat aircraft.

If further signalling were needed of the ready availability of Indian military power, the Navy also announced that army amphibious forces – specialist units used to assault and capture island targets – were also participating in the on-going exercise.

Contacted for comments, an Indian Navy spokesperson stated: “This is a routine training exercise that is taking place. It will last for a month.”

In simple strategic terms, India’s proximity to the Maldives lets it project far greater force around the archipelago than the PLA(N), for significantly longer durations.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby pankajs » 20 Feb 2018 19:51

shiv wrote:We have lost. Now that we have lost we need to decide how to live as slaves to the Chinese.

Have some Chiken/Veg Manchurian. That is how I plan to spend the rest life after the Chinese takeover of the world.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby chola » 20 Feb 2018 20:07

Ffft. “Losing” the Maldives means little to nothing since nobody around the world thought we owned it in the first place.

And Pankajs ji is absolutely right. If Cheen can rise to supa powahdom surrounded with REAL heavy metal US bases and warships a few miles off its coastline and borders then India can certainly rise with some imaginary “pearls” around the IOR.

This whole stupidity of we can’t rise when “surrounded” is indicative of SDRE mind think. Every power of note in the old world is “surrounded.”

Germany is surrounded by great powers. So is Russia. And so certainly is Cheen who are not only surrounded by REAL heavy metal amreeki bases but by other heavyweights — Russia, Japan, SoKo, Taiwan and ourselves.

We need a nice war with Cheen to get over this stupid chickenchit mindset.
Last edited by chola on 20 Feb 2018 20:10, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby SSridhar » 20 Feb 2018 20:09

Maldives Emergency extended by 30 days - IANS
MALE: The Maldives' Parliament on Tuesday approved extending the state of Emergency by 30 days following a request by President Abdulla Yameen.

Only 38 MPs were present for the vote despite the requirement of 43 lawmakers as per the Constitution. All 38 MPs were from the ruling party, the Maldives Independent reported.

The opposition had boycotted the vote to ensure the vote could not take place, but the extension was granted anyway.

The new state of Emergency will end on March 22.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby pankajs » 20 Feb 2018 20:16

raghava wrote:Mods, i hope you forgive my jubiliant smileys...... this news has truly made my day...

Just like some of you predicted, the mighty PLAN turns tail and runs away when confronted with strength.
:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/chinese-warships-return-to-south-china-sea-118022000890_1.html

However, Indian Navy sources say that, while a Chinese flotilla, including a destroyer and a frigate, had indeed crossed into the Indian Ocean through the Sunda Strait, it turned around and returned to the South China Sea through the Lombok Strait.


So much then for the cheeni "task force"

I wouldn't break out into any celebrations yet. The situation is still fluid. Ours is a game of patience as I have said before. Wait for the Maldevians to make up their mind and then we shall see.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby abhijitm » 20 Feb 2018 20:35

China is coming after japan and india with vengeance. They are going to be constant nuisance since now it has become a superpower. We need to remain firm and deter their advances where we can.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby pankajs » 20 Feb 2018 20:39

I say again learn from the Chinese.

How did they respond when faced with the then newly minted and aggressive US Air-Sea battle concept? That too should be our route in the initial days as also the cheapest and fastest to execute. Well within our technical capabilities.

Such a strategy will also place any future Chinese deployment around IOR at risk from *the unsinkable* Mother-ship India including bases at Gwadar, Hambantota, etc, etc .... including lets say a base at Maldives.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby chola » 20 Feb 2018 21:06

abhijitm wrote:China is coming after japan and india with vengeance. They are going to be constant nuisance since now it has become a superpower. We need to remain firm and deter their advances where we can.


Look at how Japan is dealing with Cheen and how we are. And how Cheen deals with the USA.

China is the biggest factor in Japan’s current economic renaissance.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/18/japan-export-growth-pointing-to-a-continued-recovery.html
Monday's trade data showed exports to China, Japan's biggest trading partner, jumped 30.8 percent year-on-year in January led by semiconductor production equipment, car engines and hybrid cars.


https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/Economy/Record-Chinese-tourists-flock-abroad-for-Lunar-New-Year

Image

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Philip » 20 Feb 2018 21:59

The Chinese have understood the Indian state very well."All gas no guts".They well know this because of our "befitting replies" to Pak's perfidy.Had any nation conducted so much cross border terror to China, do you think the Chinese would not have sent a barrage of missiles up the enemy's backside?

But Indi is behaving under the NDA even worse than a pontificating Pandit Nehru who had a far lesser mil. capability than India has of now.His desperate plea to the US for sqds. of bombers, etc., etc. may be repeated in the future! '62 redux?

It will be the most shameful moment in India's 21st century history if China simply sails into the Maldives and gives India the upturned finger.Even Sri Lanka supposedly chum of China has condemned the Maldivian despot.What further regional support do we need to act?

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby abhijitm » 20 Feb 2018 22:11

Exactly, war like direct confrontation is a last option with china. So we need to be a step ahead in the game while keeping diplomatic and economic relation with them. This examples of how other countries deal with other countries are only theoretical since the theatre of engagement is different with different context. Important thing is what is our policy about maldives, what do we want strategically and if china is preventing us then how are we going to react. So far it seems we are interested in maldives, we played our cards, yet we are on backfoot. So either we forfeit the strategic location or play our next moves.


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