Maldives Civil-Military Issues

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shiv
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby shiv » 28 Feb 2018 17:28

From 2015
http://www.foreign.gov.mv/index.php/en/ ... ives-at-un
The Maldives’ decision to join the UN in 1965 sparked a debate on how a “micro state”, such as the Maldives, could possibly contribute to the organisation. Today, Maldives is proud to have proven the doubters wrong. The Maldives takes pride in the active and useful role it has played at the Untied Nations. It has shown that not only do small states belong, but can contribute immensely, to the work of the United Nations. Despite our size, our voice is strong and clear.

It was the Maldives that brought to the world’s attention, the many challenges small states face and the importance of embarking on sustainable policies to increase their resilience. It was the Maldives that warned the world of the dangers of climate change. The Maldives has led various initiatives on climate change, human rights, and sustainable development of small island developing states at the United Nations. It has taken on prominent roles at the United Nations, most recently on the United Nations Human Rights Council. Such initiatives have no doubt revealed the ability and the willingness of the Maldives to lead.

Over the years, the United Nations has remained as a strong supporter of the Maldives. As we look forward to celebrating our golden jubilee of independence next year, the Maldives reaffirms its commitment to continue its journey at the United Nations. We will continue to work with the UN to make the world a safer place and give everyone the courage to dream new dreams.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby shiv » 28 Feb 2018 17:32

http://www.imuna.org/resources/country- ... s/maldives
After abolishing the sultanate, Maldivians created a republic after a national referendum in March of 1968. The government is structured in the framework of a democratic republic with a presidential representative, where the president is the head of government. The government exercises executive power. Each atoll has its own Atoll Council, which is elected by the Island councilors, which are elected by the people of each island.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby shiv » 01 Mar 2018 07:51

http://alert5.com/2018/03/01/jmsdf-p-3- ... transfers/
JMSDF P-3 caught North Korean ship-to-ship cargo transfers

A Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force P-3 maritime patrol aircraft caught a Maldivian-flagged tanker “Xin Yuan 18” in a ship-to-ship transfer with North Korean-flagged tanker “Chon Ma San” on Feb. 24. Such transfers of goods is in breach of UN Security Council (UNSC) sanctions.

Read more at http://alert5.com/2018/03/01/jmsdf-p-3- ... dKfdAPt.99


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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby tandav » 01 Mar 2018 11:11

Xin Yuan is probably a Chinese asset with Maldives documentation for plausible deniability.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Pulikeshi » 01 Mar 2018 11:42

I’ll play... against my better judgement :mrgreen:

shiv wrote:Version A. If India takes "control" of Male how will we impose control on other Islands if China decides that some Island is theirs


Mincoy to Male is about 460KM and Male to Diego Garcia is 1300KM ~ approximately in both cases. Let’s dare Eleven Gin Peg to take some Islands
We can even call it a Chinese Navy drill with Indian Coast Guard :rotfl:

shiv wrote:Version B: If China takes "control" of Male how will they impose control on other Islands if India decides that some Island is ours


This one is interesting - lets say it happens... First, India (along with quad) will claim that a Democracy has been illegally snuffed out by the Chinese gorilla... Second, India has reason to operationalize several more ideas in Indo-Pacific and off Africa - lets start with Singapore, Vietnam, Seychelles, Duqm, Chabahar, etc. - wait India is already there... perhaps it opens the door for more. Hope Chinese are swindled by Maldives for a few more billion dollars. I wish I had a few islands to sell as well... think we go back to lets dare Eleven Gin Peg!

Either scenario - India remains silent and does what she does best - babus go back to sleep - yawn! :P

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Philip » 01 Mar 2018 13:04

Any number of excuses,rationalising intervening in the Maldives can be trotted out by our MEA mandarins.They're expert at argumentative diplomacy,taking their lead from that doughty warrior of the debate supreme,one Krishna Menon! But the vital ingredient is missing and that is two round spherical objects which like to "dangle". Our doughty diplomats who fire at will broadsides verbale,send salvos of "befitting replies" at the slightest provocation .They're staunch advocates of gun control ,abhor "collateral damage" and firmly believe that you can make an omelette without breaking an egg!

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Singha » 01 Mar 2018 15:18

maldives has a astonishingly long history of settlement given its small islands and lack of resources to exploit
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maldives# ... settlement

it seems around 1500-1000BC people our South had settled it, followed by sinhala buddhists from 500BC....from there on until 12th century AD it was a stopover on trans oceanic trade routes and buddhist, with hinudism also there. arab traders peers converted the last buddhist king to islam . later it passed through portugese and dutch hands before british took it over.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buddhism_in_the_Maldives

Destruction of Buddhist sculptures in 2012
In February 2012, a group of Islamic extremists forced their way into the National Museum in Malé and attacked the museum's collection of pre-Islamic sculptures, destroying or severely damaging nearly the entire collection about thirty Buddhist sculptures dating from the 6th to 12th centuries.[3] Museum staff indicated that as the sculptures were made from very brittle coral or limestone it would be impossible to repair most of them, and only two or three pieces were in a repairable condition.[4]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuruhinna_Tharaagandu
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fua_Mulaku_Havitta

in history its the southern most buddhist country ever.

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contrast to new zealand which was settled by humans only 900 years ago, because the aborigines did not develop the sailing technology to cross the tasman sea!!

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Singha » 01 Mar 2018 15:21

i wonder why we did not just take over the place and establish naval bases and 100 year leases when it gained independence in 1965.

whose permission did the arabs, portugalis, boers and angrez seek before taking the place over ? None.
whose permission did the pack of islamists seek when they destroyed 1000 yr old relics? None.

he who is willing to wield to the stick makes up the rules and writes history.

i guess JLN wanted to keep his anti colonial credentials and MEA did not want to be seen as colonizer. pathetic and argumentive as usual

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby wadi1979 » 01 Mar 2018 21:32

panduranghari wrote:
wadi1979 wrote:http://www.gatewayhouse.in/chinese-investments-in-the-maldives/

A project that I am working on - to map Chinese economic penetration of economies in India's immediate neighborhood.

Comments/feedback appreciated.


Saar,

How does this compare to Japanese investments in European-America in the late 80's? There was a threat expressed then about Japanese like it is today for Chinese. Yes Japanese never intended to upend international institutions- perhaps 1945 made them subservient- like China has stated it wishes to since Jinping has taken over in 2012.


Even Chinese companies invest heavily in US/Europe, but that's different from investment in South Asia/Africa. Much of US/EU investment is by private firms - whereas in South Asia, 95%+ of the cases I have seen (300+) are investments by government companies. So clearly, it is not just a commercial investment.

Secondly, in the US/EU, there is far more transparency about who's bringing in money, on what terms and for what use. In Maldives or Pakistan, even the interest rates on loans are not clearly mentioned anywhere. Very little transparency.

Finally, South Asian countries are highly corrupt (India is actually the cleanest of the lot, going by Transparency International). So you have a highly corrupt country where China offers aid to build a power-plant/port/road - which is awarded without open bidding to a Chinese contractor. If you bribe the right guys, you can easily pad up project costs. The bill comes due after 5-10 years, as Sri Lanka is witnessing. This approach will be difficult to do in a more free/open/clean society.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Singha » 01 Mar 2018 21:36

excellent work Wadi ... I wish our /deep thinkers/ in north and south block showed such industry rather than sleeping at the wheel

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby wadi1979 » 01 Mar 2018 21:39

Singha wrote:excellent work Wadi ... I wish our /deep thinkers/ in north and south block showed such industry rather than sleeping at the wheel


Thank you. We are trying to map Chinese investments across 6 of India's neighbours - Maldives and Bangladesh have been put up already. Do look and share feedback if any, or gaps/additional information that could be added to the next iteration.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Philip » 02 Mar 2018 03:52

Maldives go back to the Indus Valley civ. era.The famous explorer Thor Heyerdahl found the remnants of a sun temple on an atoll and Indus Valley seals too.Indus Valley script similar to those on Easter Island too.

Can't see India tightening the screw at all.The tadpole tyrant is simply cocking-a- snoop at us! Much universal dismay at the impotency of Indian diplomacy and fear of Chin sabre rattling at events affecting our security in our very own backyard.If we intervene in the Maldives it will drive home the lesson to our other neighbours who are flirting with the Chins.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby pankajs » 02 Mar 2018 18:02

http://indianexpress.com/article/opinio ... t-5083316/
Mastering the seas [Arun Prakash - The writer is a retired Chief of Naval Staff]
The tiny but strategically located archipelagic Republic of Maldives has traditionally maintained warm and friendly links with India. Alert diplomats should have picked up early signs of the Maldives slipping out of India’s ambit — the appearance of radical Islam via Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, the warming of relations with China and the decline in India’s stock. President Abdulla Yameen’s actions, albeit unconstitutional and arbitrary, still remain an “internal affair” of the Maldives; and China’s thinly-veiled threats enable him to defy India.

New Delhi has, very sensibly, resisted the urge to invoke an “Indian Monroe Doctrine” and attempt regime-change in Male through military action. Its forbearance is bound to be rewarded. Alarmist reports about possible PLAN “gunboat diplomacy” need to be viewed against the geographic reality that a Chinese warship would take 8-10 days to cover the 3,500 miles from Yulin to Male. The flip side of this reality is that Indian troops were in Male within 16 hours to save the nation from a coup in 1988, and it took the IN just 24 hours to come to the aid of tsunami-hit Maldivians in 2004. The Maldivian participation in the IN exercise “Milan” is always a token one, and too much need not be read into its absence this year.

Against this backdrop, India’s recent agreement with Oman providing access, for “military use and logistical support” in the new Port of Duqm, has raised hopes that India is, belatedly, strengthening its maritime posture in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). There have been other significant developments too; like President Ram Nath Kovind’s visit to Djibouti and its impending recognition by India; the conclusion of an Indo-Seychelles agreement for creation of air and naval facilities on Assumption Island; and the agreement with the UAE for joint naval exercises. Whether they herald a renewed impetus to India’s maritime outreach or, perhaps, the actualisation of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s 2015 “Sagar” vision, depends on whether they are random actions or part of a coherent Indian maritime grand strategy.

Rest is also interesting.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby shiv » 02 Mar 2018 18:40

One thing that people do not seem to ask is wtf is a "naval base"?. A naval base needs to have some minimum facilities for docking, replenishment, rest and recreation and repair if possible.

India has such a base in the Lakshadweep Islands close to the Maldives.

We have a base coming up in the Seychelles, a listening post in Mozambique and a base coming up in Oman

What's to do in the Maldives? Invade and take over?

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby shiv » 02 Mar 2018 18:44

pankajs wrote:http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/mastering-the-seas-china-india-naval-services-chabahar-port-5083316/
Mastering the seas [Arun Prakash - The writer is a retired Chief of Naval Staff]
a Chinese warship would take 8-10 days to cover the 3,500 miles from Yulin to Male


In case anyone is misled Adm Arun Prakash means 3500 nautical miles or about 7000 km. Most Chinese ships that sail 7000 km cannot sail back without refuelling

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby arshyam » 02 Mar 2018 19:38

I'd add a few more points. A naval base needs some hinterland to supply it. Otherwise, all supplies need to be carted in from home and stocked up. It's all fine and dandy to say that China can do all that in an Maldivian island, but those supplies will be the first target in the event of hostilities. Secondly, storage for these supplies: even if China manages to strengthen some logistical supply chain, their storage cannot be easily defended, as most, if not all Maldivian islands lack natural cover, mountains, etc. into which they could build underground facilities. The entire country has an average elevation of about 4 feet above MSL. There is also the minor issue of corrosive tropical air - they'll need to protect their storage. Same goes for placement of air defence units around these facilities - do they have good locations for such units? I'd urge folks to look at what the great khan was able to build in the best location in the area - Diego Garcia, and compare that with what the Chinese could do in not so great locations. Also keep in mind that the IOR is not hostile waters for the US.

I am not saying the above in terms of a fait accompli that the Chinese have a toehold in the IOR (however nebulous it may be). Instead I am saying that these considerations will go into Chinese calculations on whether to build up some facilities. Given a choice, they'd take Hambantota** for those reasons without a second thought. But Hambantota is not really working out, given the SL govt's clear stand on not allowing mil facilities in the port, and handing over the nearby airport to us (it's hardly 15 km away as the crow flies). I am sure a Sukhoi can cover the distance much faster :mrgreen:. So the Chinese are really left with Gwadar and maybe Sittwe, though Myanmar will not roll over as easily as the bakis.

Gwadar is a concern, and perhaps our only concern. That's where Chahbahar and Duqm come into play. The latter is openly for our military usage. Djibouti is too far to cause us any damage, and we seem to be up to something there anyway.

So given the above, what are China's options? They don't have a good staging area in the IOR, so they have to deploy from home ports only. What will they do then? Send a nuke sub to harass our shipping? Sure, they can try that. I am sure despite our watching the ingress points, they could slip in once or twice without us knowing - after all, it is not easy to be in a watchful state forever and the IOR is not a lake. But note that I said nuke sub, not diesel (the distance is just too much for diesels to operate without replenishing supplies). But sending a nuke sub to harass shipping is a serious escalation - will they want to risk that? We could do the same, and with friendlier ports for our replenishment near their home waters. And unlike us, their shipping lines are easier to reach from our mainland, let alone locations in Lakshadweep, A&N, Duqm, etc.

My reading is that China will do everything it can to try to advance inch by inch without actually pushing us beyond our redlines*. That's nothing new - that's what they do in the mountains. In the naval arena, that means sending ships on token anti-piracy patrols with 3-4 ships, and leak the news to our media, which immediately like BRF (of late) will do rona-dhona, completing the job for them. We will all live in a state as though Chinese ships are permanently anchored off Marina beach. But beyond that, they won't really try anything, as their logistical chains are simply too long and unsustainable.

Eventually, things will settle at an equilibrium: they'll keep ICS under their thumb and ensure they have safe waters for their nuke boats (East China sea is not that safe given Japanese and Unkil presence right off their coast in the first island chain). Or they could hang out in the Yellow sea, which is even worse, given SoKo and again Unkil. Similarly, the IOR will be under our watch, specifically the ingress and egress routes. There will be the occasional pin-prick by both sides, but that's pretty much it. These games on some atolls here and there are sideshows.

* We have a responsibility to not get accustomed to moving our redlines as the Chinese push them. So if the current noise is too much, we should overtly signal some action: exercises in the ICS with Vietnam would be a nice start, accompanied by massive publicity. We should simply prevent them from pushing our redlines, that's all. No need to send troops to Maldives - it's not worth it.

** For a long time, there was so much hand-wringing about China in Hambantota - how has that worked out for them so far and why? Something to ponder about.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby shiv » 02 Mar 2018 19:46

Regarding Gwadar:

Posted without kament
https://twitter.com/bennedose/status/969555122073186304

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Dipanker » 02 Mar 2018 23:04

shiv wrote:What's to do in the Maldives? Invade and take over?


I would think so and situation like these gives us the pretext. A bird in hand is better than 4 naval bases around it plus we can have the naval bases anyway.

Taking over does not mean that we have to keep them under our boots. For all practical purpose they can be completely autonomous and/or have a status somewhat similar to Bhutan. Just that as and when they would get the urge to hobnob with entities inimical to our interest they would need the big brother India's nod to go ahead (or not).

But with Chinese foot hold there, this option is now dicey.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby shiv » 03 Mar 2018 00:14

Dipanker wrote:
shiv wrote:What's to do in the Maldives? Invade and take over?


I would think so and situation like these gives us the pretext. A bird in hand is better than 4 naval bases around it plus we can have the naval bases anyway.

Taking over does not mean that we have to keep them under our boots. For all practical purpose they can be completely autonomous and/or have a status somewhat similar to Bhutan. Just that as and when they would get the urge to hobnob with entities inimical to our interest they would need the big brother India's nod to go ahead (or not).

But with Chinese foot hold there, this option is now dicey.

As I see it rhetoric is no substitute for fleshed out details.

What exactly are you proposing? Everyone is pregnant with ideas but no one has even a whiff of an actual plan in the short and medium term.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Dipanker » 03 Mar 2018 01:07

^I know, but I have no expertise in planning a naval/amphibious assault, so I will leave the fleshing out part to the experts.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Rudradev » 03 Mar 2018 01:14

Invasion, assault etc. are panic reactions that the Chinese are attempting to bait us into.

What is needed is solid, thorough intelligence penetration and covert capability. If the Chinese try to build something, it miraculously blows up (along with Chinese engineers). If they try to dock a craft, it mysteriously sinks. If they plan to land on an uninhabited island and set up a base, we know about it long before their first surveyors arrive, and use any of a range of options (from IN interdiction of Chinese vessels far out at sea to pre-emptively squatting on the island ourselves to unfortunately "accidenting" the survey team) to abort the plan.

All the while we applaud Male's sovirginity, strategic autonomy, and long history of close relations with India. And congratulate them on not allowing themselves to become a proxy battleground for larger powers.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Philip » 03 Mar 2018 02:37

Htota deal was not signed and sealed when the new dispensation took over.However despite decrying the deal, visits by both pres. and PM to the Forbidden Palace saw a well- executed about turn leaving India look like a jilted groom at the altar!

If you want to see how swiftly the Chins can establish mil facilities just look at what they've done in the Spratlys.Land reclaimed, runways built,quays and jetties too, support facilities for troops, aircraft,fuel and stores appeared like mushrooms after a thunderstorm .Media reports today showed a rly. station built in just 9 hrs by synchronised! construction teams.That is the speed with which China changes the landscape.Perhaps it was they who really built the pyramids!

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Philip » 03 Mar 2018 02:45

Easier said than done. Building up a covert force, even intel assets isn't easy at all.During the Cold War it took each side years to build up credible foreign assets.Today most intel is acquired through electronic means, sats, etc.Mr.Bond is passe, best suited , pun intended, for the movies.Our MIG-25s were retd. becos we didn't need them any longer after their lifespan,once sats were in place.

What the Maldives requires is a swift dethroning of the tadpole tyrant and a return to true democracy there, with India installed as security guarantor and no external force allowed access to any island except for legitimate tourism, barring the Chinkos.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby shiv » 03 Mar 2018 07:42

Dipanker wrote:^I know, but I have no expertise in planning a naval/amphibious assault, so I will leave the fleshing out part to the experts.

Look - I can't blame you for saying this - but this is what 99% of people do. They have ideas but no insight. If anyone (not specifically you) is interested in how the last Maldives intervention took place - here is a book that I recommend highly. It gives one an insight into how these things are done. The book also deals with Sri Lanka and Sierra Leone so these ideas of invasion and take-over need to be tempered with some real-life issues. The author was in the army and writes personal accounts from people he has interviewed as well as mind-blowing details (sorry for the hype - but I think it's true)

Mission Overseas: Daring Operations by the Indian Military-Sushant Singh

Rs 292 onlee

Even an invasion of the Maldives can be botched badly - with lots of men losing lives and a suboptimal outcome unless there is a clear way forward as to what the forces can achieve and what the diplomats and politicians can achieve.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby shiv » 03 Mar 2018 07:45

Philip wrote:If you want to see how swiftly the Chins can establish mil facilities just look at what they've done in the Spratlys.!

Philip I recommend firing up Google Earth, focusing on Gwadar and looking at historic satellite images from (approximately) 1997 till 2017

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby arshyam » 03 Mar 2018 08:04

Philip wrote:If you want to see how swiftly the Chins can establish mil facilities just look at what they've done in the Spratlys.Land reclaimed, runways built,quays and jetties too, support facilities for troops, aircraft,fuel and stores appeared like mushrooms after a thunderstorm .Media reports today showed a rly. station built in just 9 hrs by synchronised! construction teams.That is the speed with which China changes the landscape.Perhaps it was they who really built the pyramids!

Okay people, let's pack up and go home. The Chinese can apparently build railway stations within a day. What do we do onlee? :((

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Pulikeshi » 03 Mar 2018 09:25

Dipanker wrote:^I know, but I have no expertise in planning a naval/amphibious assault, so I will leave the fleshing out part to the experts.


Professionals call this syndrome - I dont know how to do it, so it must be easy!
Chin up! Trust the professionals :mrgreen:

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Pulikeshi » 03 Mar 2018 09:57

wadi1979 wrote:Finally, South Asian countries are highly corrupt (India is actually the cleanest of the lot, going by Transparency International). So you have a highly corrupt country where China offers aid to build a power-plant/port/road - which is awarded without open bidding to a Chinese contractor. If you bribe the right guys, you can easily pad up project costs. The bill comes due after 5-10 years, as Sri Lanka is witnessing. This approach will be difficult to do in a more free/open/clean society.


Great work! However, you may want to think about being able to answer ‘so what?’

If these countries default - what can China do?
Ok, she gets a 100 yr lease on a no ROI property w an Indian airport next door, so to what end? She in 8-10 yrs owns all of Paki, so what?
The real danger I see is that all the debts come a calling at an inopportune time... sounds like vinasha kaale viparitha buddhi :P
Can China then print her way out of it or burden her citizens w additional tax?
Look forward to your thoughts...

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Philip » 03 Mar 2018 10:30

The scattered attolls in the Maldives can remain untouched with our patrol craft simply "showing the flag".
No need to enter every atoll.Male and the airport matter most.Plucking the feathers of the chicken, seeing that he does not escape aboard a Chin sub.An air and naval blockade will see the govt. collapse within a week as everything barring fish, including drinking water comes from the outside.Their own uniformed troops might even depose the tadpole tyrant seeing the futility of his hanging on as there's some rumour that the CDS is like " yon Cassius, lean and hugry..."
Once he has been ousted, get the SC and CJ into action to temp. take charge and hold asap fresh elections.Tyrant and coterie excluded of course.

We did something similar but a far more difficult job in SL, holding elections in the N-East, where pro-India Vardaraj Perumal was elected as CM while the LTTE was marginalised and in full retreat. It would be child's play in the isles Maldives.

Had RG still been around the match would've been over on thd second day itself!

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby arshyam » 03 Mar 2018 10:53

Philip wrote:The scattered attolls in the Maldives can remain untouched with our patrol craft simply "showing the flag".
No need to enter every atoll.Male and the airport matter most.Plucking the feathers of the chicken, seeing that he does not escape aboard a Chin sub.An air and naval blockade will see the govt. collapse within a week as everything barring fish, including drinking water comes from the outside.Their own uniformed troops might even depose the tadpole tyrant seeing the futility of his hanging on as there's some rumour that the CDS is like " yon Cassius, lean and hugry..."
Once he has been ousted, get the SC and CJ into action to temp. take charge and hold asap fresh elections.Tyrant and coterie excluded of course.

We did something similar but a far more difficult job in SL, holding elections in the N-East, where pro-India Vardaraj Perumal was elected as CM while the LTTE was marginalised and in full retreat. It would be child's play in the isles Maldives.

Thanks sir, this makes sense to me. Our job would be to get this Yameen guy out, and keep him out. If we are able to do that without mil intervention, it's the best outcome. Post that, we might want to ensure that Maldives has some arrangement with us like Bhutan so the Chinese are permanently kept away, but the challenge then is that we'll have actively safeguard all their islands, which is a tall order. Even if China cannot sustain anything in Maldives, they could simply cause enough nuisance to make us look weak (sort of what they are trying to do now :)). I don't really like it as it will be a defensive posture from our side. What are your thoughts on the next steps if we manage to get Yameen out?

Dipanker
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Dipanker » 03 Mar 2018 11:44

Pulikeshi wrote:
Dipanker wrote:^I know, but I have no expertise in planning a naval/amphibious assault, so I will leave the fleshing out part to the experts.


Professionals call this syndrome - I dont know how to do it, so it must be easy!
Chin up! Trust the professionals :mrgreen:


So you don't think it is easy? That should make you a professional!

To give you some perspective, if we assume that in our military establishment there are about 1000 people who have the expertise in planning a naval/amphibious assault and the total population is 1.3+ billion, that would mean that roughly 99.99992307692308 % of the population is not an expert in planning a naval/amphibious assault.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby shiv » 03 Mar 2018 14:22

Philip wrote:The scattered attolls in the Maldives can remain untouched with our patrol craft simply "showing the flag".
No need to enter every atoll.Male and the airport matter most.Plucking the feathers of the chicken, seeing that he does not escape aboard a Chin sub.An air and naval blockade will see the govt. collapse within a week as everything barring fish, including drinking water comes from the outside.Their own uniformed troops might even depose the tadpole tyrant seeing the futility of his hanging on as there's some rumour that the CDS is like " yon Cassius, lean and hugry..."
Once he has been ousted, get the SC and CJ into action to temp. take charge and hold asap fresh elections.Tyrant and coterie excluded of course.

We did something similar but a far more difficult job in SL, holding elections in the N-East, where pro-India Vardaraj Perumal was elected as CM while the LTTE was marginalised and in full retreat. It would be child's play in the isles Maldives.

Had RG still been around the match would've been over on thd second day itself!

Rajiv Gandhi met his "match" for the second time in his life with a "woman from the South" aka "Dhanu" as paycheck for his Sri Lanka liaisons.

That aside - Male survives on tax income from tourists and the support of a "majlis" of independent candidates elected in various atolls. As recently as 1959 the Maldives had a serious revolt that actually sent the Brits packing from Gan Island. There was also a temporary "declaration of independence" of Gan Island from the Maldives which was blamed on the Brits who wanted that Island. So "showing the flag" may work for a bit if there is "popular support". But I have seen zero reports of disaffection among the elected representatives of various Islands and atolls. Apart from some trouble in Male - it is business as usual. The Chinese simply farted and we took it very seriously. Not that China can do a rescue act if India were to depose the current wotzisname. But given the way the Maldives works - with Islands leased or sold to foreigners we can hardly expect the Chinese to stay out. Yes their navy may stay away - but they will buy up stuff using third party fronts. Far better for us to stay involved with the people links we have, leasing Islands via third parties ourselves and building hospitals and colleges with agents in mufti mingling among the "tourists" Cheaper and as sneaky as what the Chinese are doing.

For all China's loud farts they have done bugger all in Gwadar for 10 years. Video coming up..

nam
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby nam » 03 Mar 2018 16:31

In a year's time the elections are coming up. Chances are the president may be forced to do it earlier.

Given that he has been arresting everyone left, right and center, chances of his loosing the elections are very high.

So instead of doing a regime change using the navy, it will done through the elections. Why the assumption "world's largest democracy" does not know how to use a election for it's won benefit?

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Singha » 03 Mar 2018 19:33

i wonder where maldives disposes off its garbage?
my FIL was telling of a person who does the biomass -> energy plant business in india, who has visited maldives and got good response to his proposal.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Singha » 03 Mar 2018 20:42

Saurav Jha
‏@SJha1618
Mar 2
India has to push its perimeter in the Indian Ocean further southwards. It is time to set up A2/AD architectures in various atolls. Any pussyfooting on this because of self-limiting political rhetoric would be most unwise.

Pulikeshi
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Pulikeshi » 03 Mar 2018 21:26

Dipanker wrote:So you don't think it is easy? That should make you a professional!


This is not personal, so no need to make it so!
Strategy is’nt just military might and bludgeoning others into submission -
misapplied, countries have already tried that and failed to get any outcome.
There is a time and place for might and more than a bloody nose - but it is not now.

I believe, in this case, to understand the multi-level strategy of India in Maldives one has to understand the overall players in the region.
This is not just China vs. India - it is’nt today, but it will be tomorrow.

Karthik S
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Karthik S » 03 Mar 2018 21:28

No matter India does or doesn't, need to vastly increase ship building time and order numbers. Order atleast 6 more DDGs and hopefully work on 6 SSN has started by now.

shiv
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby shiv » 03 Mar 2018 22:40

Singha wrote:Saurav Jha
‏@SJha1618
Mar 2
India has to push its perimeter in the Indian Ocean further southwards. It is time to set up A2/AD architectures in various atolls. Any pussyfooting on this because of self-limiting political rhetoric would be most unwise.

I can't understand this Tweet. Why would India want to place A2/AD (what is A2?) architecture on "various atolls?"

There are tens of thousands of atolls. Which ones? What aircraft would threaten those atolls? For what reason? In the Indian ocean the only patrol aircraft one would get are India, UK, US, Shitistan and possibly some Gulf countries, perhaps South Africa. What would putting such architecture on "various atolls" do?

panduranghari
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby panduranghari » 04 Mar 2018 02:12

Air 2 Air Defense?

Karthik S
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Karthik S » 04 Mar 2018 08:39

Chinese warships return to South China Sea as Indian Navy continues heavy deployment around Maldives
Indian Navy sources say that a Chinese flotilla including a destroyer and a frigate had indeed crossed
into the Indian Ocean through the Sunda Strait.


A Chinese warship flotilla that had entered the Indian Ocean, reportedly heading for the Maldives Islands,
has turned around and returned to the South China Sea, say highly credible Indian Navy sources.
On Tuesday, Reuters quoted Chinese website Sina.com to report that eleven Chinese warships had entered
the Indian Ocean “amid a constitutional crisis in the tiny tropical island chain of the Maldives now under a
state of emergency”, clearly suggesting gunboat diplomacy at work.
However, Indian Navy sources say that, while a Chinese flotilla, including a destroyer and a frigate, had
indeed crossed into the Indian Ocean through the Sunda Strait, it turned around and returned to the South
China Sea through the Lombok Strait.

The four straits of Malacca, Sunda, Lombok and Ombai Wetar are used by China’s People’s Liberation Army
(Navy), or PLA(N), to cross between their bases in the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean.
That leaves the PLA(N) with three warships in the vicinity -- its routine deployment in the Gulf of Aden for
anti-piracy escort duties. In addition to this “28th Anti-Piracy Escort Force” (APEF), as the three-vessel task
3/4/2018 http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 22000890_1
http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 22000890_1 2/3
force is called, three more PLA(N) warships that had formed the 27th APEF are currently visiting African
ports.
The Indian Navy, meanwhile, continues maintaining a heavy presence of battle-ready warships in the
Arabian Sea, including many close to the Maldives.
According to a navy announcement last Wednesday, “A tri-service maritime exercise, codenamed ‘Paschim
Lehar’, commenced on the Western seaboard on 12 Feb[ruary 20]18. This exercise includes the participation
of a large number of ships, submarines and aircraft from the Western Naval Command of the Indian Navy.”
The announcement also revealed the presence of “Eastern Naval Command, Indian Army, Indian Air Force
and the Indian Coast Guard [units that are] also participating to build interoperability.”
In all, India has over 40 ships and submarines deployed in Exercise Paschim Lehar, and a similar number of
combat aircraft.
If further signalling were needed of the ready availability of Indian military power, the Navy also announced
that army amphibious forces – specialist units used to assault and capture island targets – were also
participating in the on-going exercise.
Contacted
for
comments, an Indian Navy spokesperson stated: “This is a routine training exercise that is taking place. It
will last for a month.”
In simple strategic terms, India’s proximity to the Maldives lets it project far greater force around the
archipelago than the PLA(N), for significantly longer durations.
The on-going constitutional crisis in the Maldives is a contest for influence between the pro-China President
Abdulla Yameen, and his pro-India predecessor, Mohamed Nasheed, who is currently in exile in Sri Lanka.
New Delhi is concerned that the Maldives is gravitating into Beijing’s orbit, with Yameen signing up for the
Belt and Road Initiative. There is worry that China could eventually build a naval base here.
Yameen has allowed Beijing to invest in a major port project in the Maldives. That prompted Nasheed to
state that China was “buying up the Maldives”.
Yameen has responded with a political crackdown. After the Supreme Court ordered the release of jailed
opposition members earlier this month, Yameen declared a 10-day state of emergency on February 5.
On Monday, Yameen sought parliamentary approval to extend the emergency for 30 days. However, in a
press release on Tuesday, the Ministry of External Affairs tweeted: “It is our expectation that the
Government of Maldives will not be seeking the extension of the State of Emergency and resume the
political process with immediate effect.”


Looks like the flotilla never came anywhere near Maldives, seems they circled around Indonesia by entering through Sunda and exiting through Lombok straits and were just briefly in Indian Ocean.

From the article:
Image

http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 22000890_1
Last edited by Karthik S on 04 Mar 2018 08:40, edited 1 time in total.


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