Maldives Civil-Military Issues

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Pulikeshi
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Pulikeshi » 12 Feb 2018 13:59

Chandragupta wrote:
Pulikeshi wrote:Will one of the jeengovaadin please explain why US being in Diego Garcia is ok, but China being (potentially) in Maldives not ok for India?
Also, the US has no concerns with a Chinese (potential) base right next door? What no noise from the US about any of this - seems weird no?


What kind of dhimmi post is this?

We can't throw the US out of Diego Garcia so its okay for every tom dick & harry to come and squat in India's vicinity and threaten us?


You tell me - what kind of dhimmi allows this to continue in IOR? :mrgreen: :P
By the way, my attempt to ask folks to understand strategy still falls short and only jeengovaadin’s clamor without understanding remains.
There are some good responses from KL Dubey and Pankajs - please read them instead of being mad at me.
Emotional responses do not help develop strategic thinking! Ive made my prediction - you are welcome to wager your’s

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Philip » 12 Feb 2018 15:44

Sober but accurate assessment by the IDSA gent, echoing what one has been saying for a v.long time.A yr. ago I predicted such a situ and advised making plans for another Op. Cactus style.The longer we dawdle and weigh the pros, cons, dons, sons, rons,tons,etc., etc., everyone in the islands will be speaking in mandarin and walking bow-legged!

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Pratyush » 12 Feb 2018 16:40

I have been reading the thread and the possibility of India bribing it's neighbours to prevent the entry of PRC in its neighbours. The thing with this approach is that bribes have a way of getting bigger with time. The most important point is that PRC has pockets that are deeper that India's.

If we want a long term solution to this. Then we must be prepared to hammer the PRC at a time and place of our choosing. And seek opportunities for doing so. Either alone or in combination of others.

We must tell the neighborhood that they don't have any options other than accepting our benign protection.

Because nwhen you start loosing peace war becomes the only option.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby rsingh » 12 Feb 2018 19:09

GOI is silent as if nothing happened, but what about opposition parties, Pappu's advisors , RSS,Dhiv sena that sena this sena otherss?

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Trikaal » 12 Feb 2018 22:18

Pulikeshi wrote:
Trikaal wrote:India had concerns about Diego Garcia in the past but the fact is that we couldn't do anything about it. So accepting it as fait accompli in face of a bigger power was the only option. Going by the current situation, accepting the presence of a chinese base in maldives will be fait accompli too in a couple of years. Looks like it is time we get on our knees and accept the next superpower.


What is this haatosmi (woe is me) attitude thusly! :mrgreen:
A base by definition is the territory of the country that owns it. If one country is free to own bases anywhere, it is only intent and capabilities that limit if another can be present close by or not. A potential Chinese base in Maldives is a threat therefore not only to India but also to the US.

Trikaal wrote:Flankers out of maldives won’t threaten Texas, they will threaten Tamil Nadu.


They do threaten real soldiers from the US based there, some of whom could be from Texas onlee no? Also, India would have calculated the security measures required to defend Tamil Nadu if not all of South India. One’s response to questions on strategy cannot be based on emoptional reactive desires to protect just Texas or Tamil Nadu no matter how much one loves those places :-) The Chinese already have a defacto bases in Gwadar and Hambantota amongs other IOR ports. AFAIK Tamil Nadu is even more closer from Sri Lanka no? I am sure India has thought through what it can accept given the tussle with China will be decades long. Thankful no one in GOI irrespective of dispensation need to listen to anyone on this forum for foreign policy and geo-stategy advice. Which brings me back to why strategy is counter intuitive and seems completely missing in those wanting some action from an armchair!


Risk to 500 soldiers on a base that is required for supplying troops in indian subcontinent and middle east isn't the same as risk to 5 million people in mainland territory. In the event of war, if US position in diego garcia is threatened, they can always pull back. We can't pull back from 'tamil nadu' unless you are willing to learn mandarin.

Have you heard recent statements by our army chief that India can fight a 2.5 front war? What happens to that strategy when additional chinese bases crop up all over the indian ocean. There is only so many fronts we can fight on, no? Even an elephant loses to a pack of hyenas/wolves. Even an arm chair strategist like me can see this reality. The problem isn't that our strategists and advisors cannot see this, the problem is the lack of political will to act. Modi is in election year and doesn't want to take a risk that will upset his applecart, national interests be damned.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby shashankk » 12 Feb 2018 22:38

Implications of dragon’s designs in the Maldives

The Maldives is facing a serious crisis since the beginning of this month when the country’s Supreme Court overturned the convictions of several opposition politicians, including the President Yameen Abdul Gayoom’s main rival exiled former President Mohammed Nasheed. The Maldives Defence Force surrounded the Supreme Court and arrested the chief justice and another judge on charges of graft while the three other judges party to this unanimous judgment declared the order null and void. President Yameen on expected lines leaned towards China to ward off international pressure while former President Nasheed appealed to India to save democracy. President Yameen sent his envoys to ‘friendly countries’ – China, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia to explain why the Supreme Court’s ruling had been turned down.

In fact, the genesis of this could be traced since 2013 when the current President in 2013 Yameen came to power by defeating Nasheed. Yameen’s first task was to roll back all democratic gains made during Nasheed’s time. All of his potential political opponents were either jailed or exiled. His government curbed freedom of speech and assembly, with heavy fines imposed on journalists and social media users found guilty of defamation. In 2015, in a trial widely criticized by rights groups, Nasheed was sentenced to 13 years in prison. He later received asylum in Britain. Yameen had shown inclinations to move towards China keeping his domestic political situation in view. He was seeing India as a supporter of his rival. His suspicion of India was clearly revealed when in 2017 three local councilors belonging to the opposition Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), were suspended for meeting the Indian ambassador without permission.

Yameen’s coming to power was seen as an excellent opportunity by China to enhance its leverages in that country and to turn it as an important maritime base in the Indian Ocean. China by this time had come up with its ‘One Belt One Road’ initiative [later termed as Belt Road Initiative] ostensibly to facilitate trade but actually to expand its area of influence in the Indian Ocean. The Chinese writers had also revealed dragon’s plan to have three lifelines in the Indian Ocean. The North Indian Ocean supply line includes bases in Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and the Maldives.

Finding Yameen willing to move closer to China, it began to play its usual card of alluring Maldives through the financial aid and promises to build ports and other necessary infrastructure to serve the Chinese interests for the Belt Road Initiative. The Chinese policy of turning economic power into political concession has already proved successful in Cambodia, the Philippines, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. China began to move in this direction since 2013. Yameen took several steps to facilitate Chinese investments. In 2015, the People’s Majlis, the unicameral legislative institution of the Maldives, passed an amendment in the constitution whereby foreign ownership of territory within the country was given the green signal. The Chinese investment significantly increased as a result of this provision. Chinese heavy investment in the Maldives elicited the remark from Nasheed that China is “buying up the Maldives” under Yameen. He pointed out that the President Yameen has opened up the floodgates to Chinese investments with little or no oversight and transparency. The security implications for Chinese increasing hold are obvious for India.

In addition, the Sino-Maldivian free trade agreement with the Maldives has economic implications for India. What is more revealing is the manner the free trade agreement was pushed through the parliament without any discussion. It has opened the gates for entry of the Chinese cheap goods into India via the Maldives.

Another cause of concern is the fact that Maldives has provided a number of fighters to ISIS. The growing radicalisation, drug trafficking, smuggling in the Maldives remains a security concern for India.

While India has stated that it would not intervene in the internal affairs of Maldives, the security concerns deserve primacy. Whether democracy prevails in the Maldives or not, it is not India’s primary aim. India cannot allow the developments that go against its security and geo-political interests in its backyard. China’s larger objective needs to be kept in view. In the past Chinese submarines were observed moving in the Indian Ocean. Gradually by acquiring maritime bases in Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Maldives, China is intending to establish its hegemony in this region. The Chinese intents to change the strategic balance in its favour demands strong and calculated steps from India.

https://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.c ... -maldives/

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Singha » 12 Feb 2018 22:45

image of a P8 and crew on assumption island seychelles

https://www.google.co.in/maps/place/Ass ... 46.5114487

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Singha » 12 Feb 2018 22:50

On 27th January 2018, India and Seychelles signed an agreement which will allow India to build a naval base on Assumption Island

http://www.livemint.com/Politics/tDl7vA ... nt-of.html

our foreign secy went there to sign it, which indicates its seen as fairly important. being in middle of nowhere, far from even main islands of seychelles our forces can flit in and out without sinic moles spying easily on it and reporting back to HQ in djibouti

mauritius or reunion island would be good too, if we can get a naval/air base or shared naval docking facilities. another more remote rock is rodrigues which is well east of mauritius. after that its all a vast empty ocean to australia. would make a great forward SSBN base

the best of the lot would have been karguelen islands which the french are squatting on. some 10,000km down from India across a vast abysal underwater plain......nobody can find anything in the indian ocean as MH370 has shown, the combined weight of several nations including india and US SSNs could not put a scratch on the beast

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Singha » 12 Feb 2018 23:10

Singha wrote:image of a P8 and crew on assumption island seychelles

https://www.google.co.in/maps/place/Ass ... 46.5114487


cannot be assumption which is flat. no hills there.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Gagan » 13 Feb 2018 02:24

Good observation !
This pic is possibly from the Seychelles International Airport.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby SSridhar » 13 Feb 2018 08:58

Nasheed's Claim Baseless: China - The Hindu
China has accused the former Maldivian President Mohamed Nasheed of making “false remarks” about its ongoing projects in the Indian Ocean country.

Ji Rong, spokesperson of the Chinese Embassy here [New Delhi], said Mr. Nasheed’s “land grabbing” accusation against his country was meant to serve only “political purposes”.

“In recent years, on the basis of mutual respect, equality and mutual benefit, China and the Maldives have been cooperating on infrastructure and livelihood projects, which has played a positive role in transforming and upgrading the latter’s economy and improving its people’s livelihood. They have been widely welcomed by the Maldivian people. As a matter of fact, when Nasheed was the President, China and the Maldives launched cooperation projects.”

Infra projects

Mr. Nasheed in recent media reports accused China of “land-grabbing” in the garb of infrastructure projects in the Maldives. “We know that they have 17 islands now where they are talking about investing $40 million…” Mr. Nasheed said in a statement about China’s expanding role in the Maldives.

However, the spokesperson said, “These allegations are apparently groundless with no regard to facts.”

The verbal duel between Beijing and Mr. Nasheed has intensified since he called upon India to compel President Abdullah Yameen to free political opponents following the Supreme Court’s recent verdict. Subsequently, Mr. Yameen sent special envoys to China, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, while India declined the offer of hosting Male’s envoy.

China has termed the current political instability in Maldives an “internal affair”.

“(It) should be properly resolved through dialogue and negotiation by various parties in the country.,” the spokesperson said.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby chetak » 13 Feb 2018 10:08

OT here but on a related note.


Base In Oman: India Granted Access To Strategically Located Duqm Port For Military Use


http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-gets-access-to-strategic-oman-port-for-military-use-chabahar-gwadar-in-sight-5061573/lite/?__twitter_impression=true&utm_content=bufferfece5&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer


In a strategic move to expand its footprint in the Indian Ocean region, India has secured access to the key Port of Duqm in Oman for military use and logistical support, top sources have told The Indian Express. This is part of India’s maritime strategy to counter Chinese influence and activities in the region. This was one of the key takeaways of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Oman over the last two days. He met Sultan of Oman Sayyid Qaboos bin Said Al Said and an annexure to the Memorandum of Understanding on Military Cooperation was signed between the two countries. Sources said following this pact, the services of Duqm port and dry dock will be available for maintenance of Indian military vessels.

The Port of Duqm is situated on the southeastern seaboard of Oman, overlooking the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. It is strategically located, in close proximity to the Chabahar port in Iran. With the Assumption Island being developed in Seychelles and Agalega in Mauritius, Duqm fits into India’s proactive maritime security roadmap.


In August 2017, Oman signed an MoU with the United Kingdom that allowed the Royal Navy to use the Port of Duqm. The agreement allows UK access to facilities at Duqm, and among the vessels that will be allowed to dock at the port is the HMS Queen Elizabeth aircraft carrier, the largest ship in the British Navy.


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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby pankajs » 13 Feb 2018 10:14

^^
Almost exactly opposite Mumbai and 1600 km across the water from it.
Last edited by pankajs on 13 Feb 2018 10:16, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby KL Dubey » 13 Feb 2018 10:15

chetak wrote:
Base In Oman: India Granted Access To Strategically Located Duqm Port For Military Use

The Port of Duqm is situated on the southeastern seaboard of Oman, overlooking the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. It is strategically located, in close proximity to the Chabahar port in Iran. With the Assumption Island being developed in Seychelles and Agalega in Mauritius, Duqm fits into India’s proactive maritime security roadmap.




It is good that the media is now realizing what India is doing - maybe they are reading BRF threads. Modi sarkar has been very energetic in diplomacy and strategic execution. The plans were there for a long time, but the UPA had pretty much fawked everything up - asleep at the wheel.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby abhik » 13 Feb 2018 10:20

Singha wrote:
Singha wrote:image of a P8 and crew on assumption island seychelles

https://www.google.co.in/maps/place/Ass ... 46.5114487


cannot be assumption which is flat. no hills there.

The runway there looks to be around 1km long, too short for P8s.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby chetak » 13 Feb 2018 10:48

abhik wrote:
Singha wrote:
cannot be assumption which is flat. no hills there.

The runway there looks to be around 1km long, too short for P8s.



Image

Assumption Island, Seychelles, Seychelles

ICAO: FSAS

Details
Type: Airport (Aerodrome, Airfield)
Latitude: 9°44'32"S (-9.742224)
Longitude: 46°30'25"E (46.506836)
Datum: WGS 1984
Elevation: 10 ft (3 m)
Variation: 6.07°W (WMM2015 magnetic declination)
-0.01° annual change
Runways: 1
Longest: 3963 × 75 ft (1208 × 23 m), paved


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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Philip » 13 Feb 2018 11:08

Reunion is French territory.No luck there.No need for any N-sub facilities as bases on each coast will suffice.Fuel almost the full life of the sub, 90 day patrols std. A sub tender could be located in the ANC for forward logistic support for our conventional subs for ICS /Pacific ops.
Since we now have tied up with Spore for logistic help naval facilities at Vietnam and perhaps the Phillippines would be the icing and cherry atop the cake.

But first the Maldy Fish matter needs to be "resolved", in our favour, as the stench of rotting fish is getting stronger by the day.The despot has released a few MPs, in a token demo that he's listening to the SC, to ward off international criticism.Meanwhile the Chins have launched a scathing attack against the former ousted leader who is crying from the rooftops that this is a huge Chin takeaway.China again warned (India) against intervention.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 13 Feb 2018 12:04




Long, long before. 3.5 years ++ I had spoken of strategic importance of Duqm. Glad that the govt. finally is taking action. And yes, PeeAaarEff always ahead of the curve.

Mukesh.Kumar wrote:X-post from Re: OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications


Mukesh.Kumar wrote:The Chinese focus on OBOR is going to be there. Like it or not, India's got to step up. We are losing the game. Here's an update from our backyard- Oman.

Long back I had posted in West Asia thread on the strategic location of Duqm. To refresh memories refer the map and sailing distances below:
Image
Image

While you can go through my older post to understand context fully, in a nut shell it is here:
[list=*][*] Duqm is an extremely important location for controlling Gulf of Hormuz, Makran coast, Red Sea and East African littoral
[*] Oman government is India friendly
[*] Today Oman government has financial strains because of which they are welcoming investors from outside for this crucial project.
[*] USD 3+ bn over 10 years is a pittance to pay for an economic project that helps us secure oil channels from Middle East, extend our presence in this strategic area and secure our Western coasts
[*] Somehow we are letting this golden opportunity go. Look what the Chinese are doing. This is not a CPEC, this project will payback, and somehow we dropped the ball.
[/list]

Chinese Investments into Duqm

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/oman-china-investment-coastal-town-boom-duqm-billions-gulf-middle-east-a7932941.html

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby SSridhar » 13 Feb 2018 12:11

The unfolding political crisis in Maldives - Smruti S Pattanayak, Daily Star
Maldives has plunged into a major political crisis after the Supreme Court on February 2 in a judgement ordered the government to release 12 members of the parliament who were stripped off their posts and held by the government under different charges and order retrial of the case. This unexpected judgement pushed Maldives into a new political turmoil as the government of Abdulla Yameen refused to respect the court order and announced 15 days of state emergency. The Maldives Defence Force surrounded the Supreme Court and arrested the chief justice and another judge on charges of graft while the three other judges party to this unanimous judgement declared the order null and void.

While there was international outcry against the Yameen government and its treatment of judiciary and opposition politicians, the Yameen government leaned on China to deflect the pressure while opposition leader and former president of Maldives made an appeal to India to intervene militarily to save democracy in Maldives—an option that is not on the table for New Delhi.

The tussle between the incumbent president and the Maldives United Opposition (MUO) has intensified since last year after this united political platform was established by all the leaders opposed to Abdulla Yameen's regime. The opposition movement against the regime found political momentum after the president's half-brother and former president of Maldives Maumoon Abdul Gayoom broke away from the ruling party, Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM), after a tussle for the control of the party started.

The main issue of contention was Gayoom's refusal to nominate Yameen as the presidential candidate of the party in the 2018 election. However, the court, in June 2016, declared Abdulla Yameen as the legitimate leader of the party declaring former president and Yameen's half-brother Gayoom “incapable of attending to the duties of his job,” forcing Gayoom's exit from the PPM. As a result, the party was divided between Gayoom's loyalists and Yameen's loyalists reducing the government to a minority. Yet, it was the judiciary that kept the government alive sanctifying all its decisions and joining hands to punish the political opponents.

Inside the Majlis the opposition was not allowed to move a no-confidence motion against the speaker as the government made changes to the rules of procedure that increased the signatures required from 15 to 29 to 42 MPs. Therefore, the MUO could not succeed in overthrowing the government even after some ruling party MPs joined hands. The ruling party MPs were later disqualified and lost their seat in the parliament under the anti-defection law.

The Supreme Court decision that ordered the release of the prisoners and retrial was a major challenge to the government that is preparing for the next parliamentary election scheduled this year. Under no circumstance would the government allow its arch-rivals to contest the election which has meticulously been planned to see Yameen elected for another term.

The government defended its decision to impose emergency saying emergency is necessary for the smooth running of the state as there was no other option. It used the Maldives National Defence Force (MNDF) to arrest the Supreme Court Chief Justice, Abdulla Sayeed, and his colleague Justice Ali Hameed, and pressurised the other three of the five judges who gave the decision to reverse it. Three judges reversed the decision of the Supreme Court that ordered the release and retrial of the arrested politicians and confirmed that the Supreme Judicial Commission has the power, authority and right to investigate the Supreme Court judges including the chief justice. It appears that as long as President Yameen has the support of the MNDF, it is difficult to dislodge him even though President Yameen has lost majority in the Majlis.

In the past few years, following his controversial election in 2013, President Yameen has been keenly engaging China and Saudi Arabia though there are allegations of corruption against the regime in the manner in which important infrastructure projects were allocated to China and Saudi Arabia without competitive bidding and without taking into account the implications for the environment and economy. It was clear that Yameen courted these two countries keeping his political interest in mind. While Saudi Arabia is providing ideological recourse to the Muslim-majority country, which is evident from the fact that a large number of Maldivians were fighting alongside ISIS {This is the Saudi duplicity while claiming that it is working for 'moderation' but simultaneously exporting its vicious and hate-filled wahhabi ideology wherever it can} , China's presence was appropriately leveraged to nullify India's influence—a country that is seen sympathetic to his political rival Nasheed and is critical of Maldives' turn towards autocracy.

During his visits to India, though Yameen emphasised on Maldives' 'India first' policy, Yameen realised that the China factor would restrain India and limit various policy options it could exercise if the situation did not develop to India's liking. This is the success story of Abdulla Yameen's continuation in power. Earlier, in December 2017, three local councillors belonging to the opposition, Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), were suspended for meeting the Indian ambassador without permission. This reflects Yameen's deep suspicion of India.

In spite of former President Nasheed's Twitter appeal to India to intervene, and China's statement that cautioned against any interference in Maldives' internal affair, the policy choices for New Delhi remain limited. It is nobody's interest if Maldives moves to an era of autocracy with democratic pretentions of a sham election this year as the opposition leaders remain technically disqualified after being convicted in criminal cases. For New Delhi, which is cautiously watching China's rise in the neighbourhood, it is its geo-political interest in the Indian Ocean that would take precedence.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby SSridhar » 13 Feb 2018 12:11

Mukesh.Kumar, well done.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 13 Feb 2018 12:35

SSridhar wrote:Mukesh.Kumar, well done.


Sirjee, Duqm is very close to heart. Long before the port/ dry docks were operational I was involved in infrastructure projects there. I setup my company's first permanent representative office in the city when there were no overnight places to stay in. Used to sleep in a pick-up there. It maybe stretching it but the airport was supposed to have three parallel runways. Space is abundant. If only we had a permanent IAF base or IN bears stationed there. Would increase our reach immeasurably. Just a jingoes day dream.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby chetak » 13 Feb 2018 12:36

Our very own cheeni mouthpiece is conveying the "warning"


China will ‘take action’ if India sends troops to Maldives: Global Times




China will ‘take action’ if India sends troops to Maldives: Global Times

Atul Aneja BEIJING , FEBRUARY 13,

Editorial in tabloid warns that ‘India should not underestimate China's opposition to unilateral military intervention’

China’s state-run tabloid Global Times on Monday warned that Beijing will retaliate if New Delhi unilaterally decides to send troops to crisis-hit Maldives.

“Without UN empowerment, there would be no righteous cause for any armed force to intervene. China will not interfere in the internal affairs of the Maldives, but that does not mean that Beijing will sit idly by as New Delhi breaks the principle. If India one-sidedly sends troops to the Maldives, China will take action to stop New Delhi,” the daily asserted in an op-ed.

It warned that, “India should not underestimate China's opposition to unilateral military intervention.”

The article linking China’s “action” only as a response to India’s possible military intervention follows signals from the Chinese officialdom that Beijing does not want to exacerbate tensions with India over the Maldives issue.


“It (the Maldives development) should not become another problem (between China and India),” an official source had told The Hindu on Thursday.

Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang quoted Foreign Minister Wang Yi following his meeting with Mohamed Saeed, the special envoy of the Maldivian President Abdulla Yameen on Thursday that “China will not interfere in the internal affairs of the Maldives”.

A diplomatic source said in a conversation with The Hindu that the two visits in December to India- by Foreign Minister Wang and state councilor and politburo member Yang Jiechi-had built on the “fresh start” talks in September between Chinese President Xi Jinping and

Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the BRICS summit in Xiamen. The meeting had taken place soon after the Doklam standoff between Indian and Chinese troops in the Sikkim sector had been defused.

In a timely gesture, the Chinese side has re-opened the gates of the Kailash-Mansarovar pilgrimage for Indian travelers through Nathu La in Sikkim . The route was closed last year in the wake of the Doklam face-off.

The Global Times op-ed counseled India to “exercise restraint” in view of the “tense situation” in Male. “This is the country's internal affairs and China firmly opposes outside interference. More than that,

China should take necessary measures to stop India if New Delhi moves to intervene militarily”, the daily observed.

The latest crisis in Maldives began to unfold earlier this month, when the Yameen administration imposed an emergency in defiance of the Supreme Court ruling that quashed the conviction of opposition leader Mohamed Nasheed, and ordered release of 12 jailed parliamentarians.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Philip » 13 Feb 2018 12:53

This is "Beijing Bluff".They know that they can do precious little militarily to save their catamite in male,so to prevent him from being unceremoniously booted out,they are trying to stop India any which way,from intervening.This is what the entire world is waiting for but our scaredy cats in the salubrious and most comfortable cushions in Lutyens Bagh,want no crisis to upset their daily rounds of golf,watching menials from corporate India genuflecting to them,their eternal rounds of dpl. parties and gossiping over "Patiala pegs" at the Delhi Gym."Indian intervention? God forbid! We'll have to burn the midnight oil ,how one hates the 24X7 crisis mode schedule!

So will they invade India in the Himalayas as a result? If we intervene decisively in the Maldives,the lowest hanging fruit ever,it will be kaput for OBOR,Silk Road,String of Pearls,whatever! This is why the Chins are desperate to prevent India from sanitising the Maldives and throwing them out of the IOR.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby SSridhar » 13 Feb 2018 13:26

chetak wrote:Our very own cheeni mouthpiece is conveying the "warning"

China will ‘take action’ if India sends troops to Maldives: Global Times

I do agree that the 'National' newspaper is China-pasand. But, the above is just a report of what appeared in Global Times.

That said, China is issuing its usual threat just as it did during Doka La.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Singha » 13 Feb 2018 13:59

we are perhaps going to build a new perpendicular runway along the length of assumption island. 2.5km ought to be enough for P8 and C17/C130 types.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Singha » 13 Feb 2018 14:02

that P8 pic is indeed seychelles. i am surprised island is so small just 20km with coasts being settled.
https://www.google.co.in/maps/place/Sey ... d55.511444

it is a lot smaller than mauritius which takes around 2hrs to drive north to south and 1 hr east west

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby chetak » 15 Feb 2018 10:36

Maldives issues hands-off warning to India


Maldives issues hands-off warning to India

By Ramananda Sengupta, 15th February 2018,


NEW DELHI: The Maldives Defence Minister Adam Shareef Umar has warned that any talk of Indian military intervention would adversely impact bilateral relations.

In an interview to a TV channel Wednesday, Umar said any talk of military intervention “...could affect the respect Maldivians have for their neighbours. Or the respect Indians have for us. It could affect Indian investments coming in to the Maldives. It is possible that there may be some difficulties facing Indian businessmen when visiting the Maldives or for Maldivians when travelling to India.”

Hours earlier, a statement released by the Ministry of Defence and National Security noted “with concern” that “calls for and encouragement of Indian military intervention and military action have been made by some Maldivians. Indian news media have been reporting on such calls, as well as speculations made by politicians and non-political personnel alike.”

Related Article
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Former President Mohamed Nasheed and some other Opposition leaders have repeatedly urged India to intervene militarily. These came after President Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom rejected a Supreme Court ruling that overturned terror convictions against nine Opposition leaders and reinstated a dozen MPs disqualified for joining the Opposition.

Condemning such calls for intervention as “a threat to the nation’s independence and national security”, the statement said they were intended to “cast doubt on the excellent relationship India and Maldives have enjoyed for decades”.

Asserting that it “firmly believes that India would not act on any such calls”, it went on to note that at “no time has the government of Maldives requested any foreign country for military intervention in the Maldives, and that there is no threat to Maldives from being invaded by foreign military....”

The “rather rude” snub by the Maldives Defence Ministry, as an Indian security establishment official termed it, “will not be easily digested.”

Not only do India and the Maldives have a separate bilateral defence cooperation treaty signed in 2009, the two defence establishments have been particularly close. The Indian Navy patrols Maldivian waters and flies Dornier sorties in its skies. The chief of defence staff of the Maldivian National Defence Forces, Major General Ahmed Shiyam, is an alumnus of the National Defence College in New Delhi.

Shiyam was also the reviewing officer for the passing-out parade of the cadets of the Officers’ Training Academy in Chennai in March 2014. He was appointed not by Yameen, but by his predecessor, Mohammed Waheed.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Gagan » 15 Feb 2018 19:02

Singha wrote:we are perhaps going to build a new perpendicular runway along the length of assumption island. 2.5km ought to be enough for P8 and C17/C130 types.

They'll have to look at wind direction for most of the year and then decide the direction of the runway.
Can't have a runway which will need troublesome and dangerous crosswind landings through the year.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Philip » 16 Feb 2018 08:38

Sending India's weakness and threatening us about intervening in the Maldives, the Chinese have launched a fierce attack on the PM's visit to Ar.Pradesh threatening us with dire consequences for intruding into " Southern Tibet".
It is past time to boot out the Chin shitworm of an envoy and ban all Chinese goods entering India, a long with their nationals.But does the GOI have the gumption to do so? It has behaved almost like the UPA.Perhaps a shade better but more was expected from this govt . in clearly defining India's "red lines" in the sand and sea.We are fast losing the war to the Chinese by our supine posture and at times asinine attitude of the MEA.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby KL Dubey » 16 Feb 2018 10:55

Philip wrote:.....the Chinese have launched a fierce attack on the PM's visit to Ar.Pradesh threatening us with dire consequences for intruding into " Southern Tibet".
It is past time to boot out the Chin shitworm of an envoy and ban all Chinese goods entering India, a long with their nationals.But does the GOI have the gumption to do so? .....


"Launched a fierce attack"..with what ? Just words ?

The Chinese have been threatening dire consequences for a long time, but do they have the gumption to do anything ?

You should understand that this government seems to be playing the game very well. Near-total silence and lack of reaction. The fact that the Chinese and the Maldivians are screaming their guts out (threatening India not to do anything) shows which side is getting desperate.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Deans » 16 Feb 2018 10:58

Philip wrote:Sending India's weakness and threatening us about intervening in the Maldives, the Chinese have launched a fierce attack on the PM's visit to Ar.Pradesh threatening us with dire consequences for intruding into " Southern Tibet".
It is past time to boot out the Chin shitworm of an envoy and ban all Chinese goods entering India, a long with their nationals.But does the GOI have the gumption to do so? It has behaved almost like the UPA.Perhaps a shade better but more was expected from this govt . in clearly defining India's "red lines" in the sand and sea.We are fast losing the war to the Chinese by our supine posture and at times asinine attitude of the MEA.


Philip ji, I do not always agree with your posts, but could not have put this better myself.
Why can't we have someone like SuSw or RSS leadership talking about Chinese occupied Tibet ? (with MEA saying this is FoE that India has and not our official position etc etc).

Even a 5% additional tax on Chinese imports (which FM has belatedly done on cell phones) will be Rs 20,000 crore. It will provide the kid of boost MGNREGA needs ( 75,000 cr vs, 55000 allotted in the budget) or (if imports fall), give a real boos to Made in India.
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby KL Dubey » 16 Feb 2018 11:02

Deans wrote:
Philip ji, I do not always agree with your posts, but could not have put this better myself.
Even a 5% additional tax on Chinese imports (which FM has belatedly done on cell phones) will be Rs 20,000 crore. It will provide the kid of boost MGNREGA needs ( 75,000 cr vs, 55000 allotted in the budget) or (if imports fall), give a real boos to Made in India.


All fine, but that can be done anytime irrespective of what the Chinese are shouting about. Our colleague here is suggesting we respond to words with actions...seems like a waste of political capital. The Chinese are spoiling for a fight of words, but we are not giving it to them...so they are getting angrier.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Deans » 16 Feb 2018 11:07

I'm suggesting a more calibarated approach where the Govt does not deign to respond to the Chinese, but we have people outside of the Govt who make provocative (to the Chinese) statements, that make them lose face. We can also have real actions like import duties, which we can call `Made in India' initiatives not aimed at China.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby ashish raval » 16 Feb 2018 11:18

My two paisa musings:

A) India should sanction Maldives call envoys back close all direct diplomatic channels. Break FTA of any kind.

B) Maldives will forever be at mercy of Indian attack incase of any military conflict with China. It should be made amply clear to those d1c#s that any Chinese military base will mean islands and its species will be uninhabitable for another million years in event of war with lizard. Encircling enemy does not work especially if they have firepower, men and a navy that can bomb $hit out of you and your forces will be in complete disarray and possibility of capture (slavery) and humiliation especially mother ship or mainland is geographically far away read China and more specifically if enemy is a nuclear power.

C) We should never put fingers in any Malsi affairs ever. It is sure way to burn fingers even if intention is genuine. Let people figure out their future and destiny of themselves. Be massaging split eyes backside. We should not care.

D) Maldives serve no purpose for India and is turning into rabid Wahhabi den. Let them rot in 7th century ideology.

E) Onus of sustaining will be on China and let them keep spending billions for whatever reason they want. Security cost of enemy can be increased in many different ways by using variety of cheap known ways. It will be like Falklands for Britain. Forever an expense and not profit centre.

F) Expulsion from SAARC.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby KrishnaK » 16 Feb 2018 13:00

China, Maldives: Beijing's Boats Send a Message to India

"China has bolstered its naval presence in the IO. In addition to the anti-piracy task force...a group of Chinese military vessels have recently been deployed to the eastern part of the ocean...the timing suggests it's linked to the crisis in the Maldives"


Not sure how true this is
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby KrishnaK » 16 Feb 2018 13:02

Maldives is a test case for India’s strategic economic quest, and for Trump’s Indo-Pacific idea

By disposition, President Nasheed was far from enthusiastic about Beijing’s newfound interest in the Maldives. His experience at the hands of autocrats at home gave him a jaundiced view of the Chinese Communist Party. During the Copenhagen climate summit, he would take a fair degree of pleasure in tweaking the Chinese as he stood up for binding targets against pressure from Beijing to get in line and pretend that the developing world was united in seeking to punt responsibility for future carbon emissions. He would later describe then-Chinese premier Wen Jiabao as almost shaking with anger during their meeting.

The narrative that emerged from the summit – China as the villain – was significantly shaped by Nasheed’s advisors, who gave blow-by-blow accounts to the press in the days that followed.

The soft power imbalance was almost as dramatic as the hard power gap: the charismatic, democratic leader of a tiny developing country fighting for its very existence against the bullying, authoritarian superpower.

Nevertheless, by 2010 the housing project was moving ahead. Nasheed had been elected on a pledge to provide social housing, and Chinese financing, coming amid a serious downturn in the tourist-driven economy after the global financial crisis, was the least-bad option. The project was billed as the largest civilian housing project in the history of the country and the first commercial project undertaken by the Chinese in the Maldives. Chinese tourist numbers had also begun their stratospheric take-off. While Nasheed’s political sympathies lay with India, China’s growing economic role was an unavoidable fact.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby SSridhar » 16 Feb 2018 14:03

KrishnaK wrote:China, Maldives: Beijing's Boats Send a Message to India

"China has bolstered its naval presence in the IO. In addition to the anti-piracy task force...a group of Chinese military vessels have recently been deployed to the eastern part of the ocean...the timing suggests it's linked to the crisis in the Maldives"


Not sure how true this is

I would be surprised if China has not acted so.

It is China's intention to reduce our influence in the IOR.

It has made significant inroads into Maldives and has a friendly disposition ruling it which is also anti-Indian.

China would do everything to prevent the advantage slipping out of its hands.

This is especially so after the Doka La affair. China pointedly referred to Doka La in its earlier comments about Maldives. The comparison was significant because both involved a third country to whose security India went or is most likely to go (in the case of Maldives).

The Djibouti base should come handy for China. It already has significant naval assets in the area under the ruse of anti-piracy operations anyway.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby vinod » 16 Feb 2018 14:52

I think the question boils down to whether we are willing and capable of having a showdown with China in Maldives! If yes, then we can make it happen inevitably.

If not, then forget about Maldives or anything around us.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby SSridhar » 16 Feb 2018 15:46

vinod, China may have bolstered its assets around Maldives, but I doubt if it would be willing to go the 'showdown' path if India decides to intervene.

Not intervening is not going to be an option for India if things don't change there.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Karthik S » 16 Feb 2018 18:34

Abhijit Singh‏
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A Chinese surface action group comprising a Type 071 amph transport dock, a GM destroyer(052D) n frigate(054A), with a comprehensive supply ship, believed to hv entered the Eastern IOR to preempt Indian action in Maldives. The PLAN's 28th anti-piracy task force is also in region


If we are to challenge PLAN ship for ship that far, our resources will be stretched.


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