Maldives Civil-Military Issues

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shiv
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby shiv » 15 Mar 2018 19:10

Frankly I detest it when the entire idiot media including strategic commentators apart from BRFites pour out a load of bullshit without basic research on what the Maldives airport problem actually was. I have no special powers but I do claim that I take the trouble to do some research before I shoot my mouth off, as far as possible.

Here is a summary in part for those who are interested in reading before talking all the shit I hear from 10,000 sources.
https://singaporeinternationalarbitrati ... t-dispute/

GMR infra and Malaysian Airport holdings together won a contract to upgrade Male airport some time before 2012. They were supposed to pay a "concession" fee to the Maldives and the Maldives on its part was due to charge every departing passenger US$ 25 + 2 to earn money for the project. The opposition objected to this. The ruling party then decided to forego the "concession fees" so that the project could continue. This pushed the Maldivian govt into a loss. Ultimately Maldives made decisions where they were losing money and tried to extract that money from the GMR-Malaysia combine who said balls. The contract was terminated in 2012 and went to arbitration court which ruled in favour of GMR in 2016. But forget that.

From 2012 to 2014 that airport project was in a limbo. It was then offered to the Chinese. I do not know the terms but it is utter bullshit to claim that GMR was thrown out because the Chinese butted in. It is even worse to demand that the government of India should rescue a deal between an Indian Infra company combined with a Malaysian infra company.

I am disgusted at the complete lack of any attempt to look at information that is freely available but disgust will not keep me away. I will simply point out bullshit when I see it.

Here is a fricking idiot news item that says "GMRS loss is Chinas gain" as if China is chewing off Indian balls. This sort of shoddy information sharing surely is a part of "national incompetence" that we like to blame on various entities other than ourselves.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby shiv » 15 Mar 2018 19:31

Here is a 2012 report on why the GMR+Malaysian project was terminated and future course of action
http://www.firstpost.com/business/gmr-h ... 64143.html
Q.Has the Maldives Government decided on how to continue the development of the airport now? Will the Government be adopting a public-private partnership model again and asking any other private developer to bring expertise and funds for the airport?

A. The Government is very clear on how it should proceed with the development of the airport. I wouldn't call the earlier modal a public-private partnership. It was an airport, all its assets and business advantage sold for just 1% (one percent) of the revenue also later to be collected as ADC to be deducted from the concession fees. A situation that left one party bleeding while the other went about business with smiles and bags. That is why the agreement was terminated.

For the moment, we have to take stock of ourselves and get to a point where we can look beyond the GMR experience. We have some experiences, pretty good experiences, in setting up successful public-private partnerships. The Government will look into all options and decide on the course of action.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby shiv » 15 Mar 2018 19:40

If anyone is interested here is a detailed analysis of what the original deal was - it was controversial from the start
https://escijournals.net/index.php/JSAS ... ad/702/439

I post here for future reference in the context of future bullshit being thrown about Maldives throwing out India and falling into China's hands. We need to get rid of the gremlins in our minds

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby shiv » 15 Mar 2018 19:54

Maldives airport status:

maldivestimes.com
Airport development works in need of revving up – Maldives Times


The original Dhivehi article was published on Avas.mv website on 16th August 2017.

The following is a loose translation:

It was just recently that one of Thailand’s wealthy tycoons invested in a mega-project in Emboodhoo Lagoon. We are talking about hundreds of thousands of dollars here. To be precise, more than billion dollars. His decision to proceed with the investment was getting the assurance of the development of Velana International Airport (VIA). This is just a small example. The focus of every investor coming to Maldives’ is at the airport. Question is, why is the rapid development of the airport so crucial to Maldives?

‘Maldives airport was of the first things we studied prior to our investment. When we got the assurance of airport development, we decided on investing,’ Singha Estate‘s Chief Investment Officer Thiti Thongbenjamas said.

When we think of airport development, the first thing to pop into our minds is India’s GMR Group; the project they conducted to develop and operate the airport. However, due to that period’s politicians ‘influencing’, they ceased their work and went back. Since then the airport became old and barely functional, and now, again its development works have begun.

Currently, there are multiple works ongoing at the airport, side by side. The total cost of the airport development project is estimated to reach 1 billion dollars and this project is financed through loans from different financial institutions and different countries.

Runway by BUCG

A 3400 meter long and 60 meters wide, a modern runway, is planned after laying a 200-millimetre thick foundation. This project is carried out by a 400 million dollar loan from Exim Bank of China.

The new runway project is handled not by an ordinary company, it is done by world famous experts in these fields of work – Beijing Urban Construction Group Co. Ltd., (BUCG).


Under this runway development project, 62 hectares of land reclamation work has been completed and sheet piling work is currently underway.

New passenger terminal – Saudi Binladin Group
proposed new terminal with Passenger jetties


Artist’s render of new terminal with Passenger jetties

The new passenger terminal work is carried by Saudi Binladin Group, a multinational construction conglomerate and is headquartered in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.


In order to pave the way to make the new terminal, the land has been cleared and the company has already started the design works for the terminal. The government is developing the airport to welcome approximately 7 million passengers.

Airport highlights:

– new terminal’s size: 90,000 sqm
– passenger capacity: 7.2 million
– new runway length: 3400 meters
– new runway width: 60 meters
– new fuel farm capacity: 48 million litres
– terminal’s aerobridges: 9
– 40 departure gates
– 38 immigration counters
– 12 modern shaded jetties
– modern baggage screening belts
– high explosive detection system
– fuel hydrant system

In addition to this, a fuel and cargo terminal, along with a fuel storage system will be built.

New sea plane terminal – VIA

Economic Minister Mohamed Saeed said other than these works, 1.3 million Rufiyaa is invested per day for the current works.
VIA runway project launch

President of the Republic of Maldives, Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom, inaugurated the official development of a new runway at Velana International Airport (VIA) in Hulhule

‘When we took over the runway, it was completely destroyed. If the north apron was not rectified, it would have harmed the tourism industry. As per the previous plan, there was no way possible to make a runway,’ Saeed said.

To sum up, the main airport development works are ongoing and the main focus is on completion.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Gagan » 16 Mar 2018 10:15

chetak wrote:There is a considerable beedi influx and has been there for years.

Really !
I haven’t been there for a while, maybe 10-12 yrs now

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Gagan » 16 Mar 2018 10:23

So with GMR-Malaysia Male airport project, the Maldivian govt was doing baniagiri over $25+2
Wonder what sort of super duper profitable deal they have with the Chinese companies now ?
Let me guess, the whole deal is secret, very few figures available and the chinese will gobble up several islands

A fool is born everyday, and scamsters like the cheeni govt are out there to con them

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Philip » 16 Mar 2018 11:14

There are under currents not in the public domain,Shiv reg the GMR airport deal and Maldivian foreign deal interests. Sri Lankan style.In the Maldives the bulk of profitable biz is owned by the political elite who store their ill- gotten gains offshore and with thr coperation of their chief bankers and aid givers.China is giving upto 50% of a project cost in kickbacks to politicos in our region.To put it in perspective, enormous pressure has been there from China to oust all Indian interests in key dev. projects promising the moon to the locals.China, Pak and the Saudis are in cahoots together where Muslim nations are concerned.

Unfortunately, as I've pointed out, the MEA cares a fig about Ind. biz interests esp. those of a strategic nature where the services must be involved! Keeping out the services from MEA turf is more important to it than the Chins advancing in our backyard. Why is it there is little movement on the Mattala airport,Oil Tank Farm- Trinco,and the Indo- Lanka trade/ security pact? The Chins are using Rajapakse and his SB goons in protests while the Htota port and SEZ deal was rushed through at supersonic speed. The MEA will continue to taste defeat in the Maldives unless the stick is used.

PS: The Chin projects in the Maldives has nos dxpanded from a mere airport ddv. to a linking bridge to Mald and the island sale and land reclamation programme for 17 atolls at a min. investment / price of $ 1B. The huge amts
that can be creamed off these projects for thd grubby little Maldivian politicos.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Neshant » 17 Mar 2018 18:54

Next week on the 20th of March, the 1 month emergency declared by Yameen to keep himself in power ends.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Philip » 18 Mar 2018 17:43

More demonstrators arrested as demos banned by thd tadpole.Soon the country will be a nation of luxury island resorts and jails.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby shiv » 18 Mar 2018 22:22

Philip wrote:In the Maldives the bulk of profitable biz is owned by the political elite who store their ill- gotten gains offshore and with thr coperation of their chief bankers and aid givers.

This is blindingly obvious - given the sorts of deals they are doing. What I can't get my head around is the idea of using the Indian armed forces to root out corruption. In the Maldives?

As regards Hambantota - that is yet another case of a totally corrupt Sri Lankan politician selling land that was not his to the Chinese. But someone needs to explain this to me: Sri Lanka (I think) has defaulted on Chinese loans and now China "owns" a huge tract of land in the area for 99 years. The fear that is most often expressed in the media is that China will build a naval base there. Sri Lanka for its part has said that they will not allow Chinese military activity in the area. So what is it that we are supposed to do? Pay off Sri Lankan loans?

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby chanakyaa » 21 Mar 2018 06:40

Maldives to lift state of emergency, charge ex-president, chief justice with bribery
Maldives President Abdulla Yameen will lift the 45-day state of emergency on Thursday and the government will bring bribery charges against former leader Maumoon Abdul Gayoom and the chief justice, said a senior Maldives diplomat.
...


Maldives state of emergency detainees charged with terrorism
High-profile detainees arrested under emergency powers last month have been charged with terrorism over an alleged plot to overthrow the government.

A former president, two judges, four lawmakers and the police chief conspired to instigate a coup with a Supreme Court order for the release of nine prisoners, the Prosecutor General’s office said Tuesday night, revealing charges against 11 suspects.
...

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Philip » 21 Mar 2018 11:35

The new IOR prison state!

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby pankajs » 21 Mar 2018 12:30

Yawn

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby chetak » 27 Mar 2018 20:54

Beijing-Islamabad-Male Nexus In The Making: Pakistan Army Chief May Visit Maldives This Week

by Swarajya Staff - Mar 27 2018,

Beijing-Islamabad-Male Nexus In The Making: Pakistan Army Chief May Visit Maldives This Week

Pakistan Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa is likely to visit the Maldives after emergency declared in the Indian Ocean nation in February was lifted after 45 days on 22 March, Devirupa Mitra of The Wire has reported.

Bajwa may visit the island nation this week, becoming the highest-ranking foreign official to visit the country after the Maldives’ descent into crisis in February. In July last year, Yameen had invited Pakistan’s then Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif as the chief guest for the Independence Day celebrations.

The Maldives plunged into a major political crisis soon after the island nation’s Supreme Court ordered the release of nine political prisoners, including exiled former President Nasheed, saying their trials were "politically motivated and flawed". It also overturned a previous ruling that disqualified 12 members of parliament after defection, giving the opposition a majority in the Majlis.

Country’s current President, Abdulla Yameen, refused to comply with the judgement. He declared a state of emergency, ordered the arrest of the chief justice, another judge and former president Maumoon Abdul Gayoom.

Under Yameen, the Maldives has seen not only a decline in democratic freedoms but also a rise in Chinese influence. China has invested in multiple infrastructure projects and has signed a free trade agreement with the country. Yameen has ignored repeated snubs from New Delhi and has not shown sensitivity towards India’s security concerns in the face of increasing Chinese influence.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Rudradev » 28 Mar 2018 04:25

Has this been posted before?

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Econom ... a-tensions

According to Indian government sources, China sent several vessels, including missile destroyers, near the Maldives, apparently in response to a Maldivian envoy's visit to Beijing on Feb. 7. Yameen has counted on China for support, including investment, which has proven controversial.

But around Feb. 22, when these ships were around 30 nautical miles from India's vessels, the Indian Navy threatened action -- a warning shot and "war drill" -- if they were to come within 20 nautical miles. The Chinese fleet retreated to the southeast, stopping in waters 276 nautical miles from the Maldivian capital of Male.


But of course we did nothing onlee :(( :(( :((

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Pulikeshi » 28 Mar 2018 06:50

^^^ Don’t to worry - Cheen is sending it top most kammandu a one called “The Behen Baajwa” on a plane.
As Navy is no use onlee :P :mrgreen:

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby shiv » 28 Mar 2018 07:47

Skanda wrote:https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/International-Relations/Maldives-lifts-state-of-emergency-defusing-China-India-tensions?page=1
According to Indian government sources, China sent several vessels, including missile destroyers, near the Maldives, apparently in response to a Maldivian envoy's visit to Beijing on Feb. 7. Yameen has counted on China for support, including investment, which has proven controversial.

But around Feb. 22, when these ships were around 30 nautical miles from India's vessels, the Indian Navy threatened action -- a warning shot and "war drill" -- if they were to come within 20 nautical miles. The Chinese fleet retreated to the southeast, stopping in waters 276 nautical miles from the Maldivian capital of Male.


Image

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby disha » 28 Mar 2018 20:26

^ So that is how a desi on BRF doing rona-dhona looks like!

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Singha » 28 Mar 2018 21:33

particularly humiliating it is the hated nipponese pointing out this wardrobe malfunction.

looks like this flotilla was from the red sea/horn of africa units and not the other one which turned back from indonesia.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby SSridhar » 29 Mar 2018 07:46

Singha wrote:looks like this flotilla was from the red sea/horn of africa units and not the other one which turned back from indonesia.

Yes, that seems so. Probably assets from Djibouti plus whatever were already on the so-called anti-piracy operations.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Kashi » 29 Mar 2018 07:52

Singha wrote:particularly humiliating it is the hated nipponese pointing out this wardrobe malfunction.

looks like this flotilla was from the red sea/horn of africa units and not the other one which turned back from indonesia.


So there were two flotillas? But which one came within 30 nautical miles of the IN ships?

The report says that the flotilla retreated to Southeast, which should refer to Indonesia.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Philip » 29 Mar 2018 09:07

May have been the jibs from Djibouti scuttling home to be replaced by other units.
The Paki army chief visiting Male is a serious development indicating help in countering any Indian intervention in the future.We may see both Paki and Chin troops at some stage suddenly make their presence.

India lost the plot sadly in the first few weeks when Yameen was being castigated by the whole world and the Chins and Pakis had not realised our timidity .Any intervention in the future will be a far more difficult affair as the Sino- Pak combine make their joint plans learning from the past.

Keep yawning!

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Philip » 29 Mar 2018 09:25

Ha!Ha! " India unhappy with Maldives' "secret talks" with China and Pak.You should've told us first, say miffed South Block blockheads.
What do you expect from our eunuchs? Having identified us as a bunch of eunuchs, the Maldives tadpole cares a damn about India because of his solid support from both our enemies.In fact a mere warning from China to us about intervening, paralysed south block.

South Block will keep on being unhappy until real men take over the MEA, now manned by impotents, and decide upon firm action regardless of the Chins and Pakis.If we keep dawdling and indulge in verbal duels, the time for real duelling will have passed into history.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby shiv » 29 Mar 2018 09:29

Philip wrote:We may see both Paki and Chin troops at some stage suddenly make their presence.

Yawning is a good idea.

There is no guarantee that Pakistan won't lob some nukes at us later today. That is more easy than sending troops to the Maldives. Instead of talking about the Maldives why not we nuke Pakistan instead?

I may get knocked down by a car later today. But I'm not worrying about it and will try and take care that it does not happen. For me personally - I put a limit on how much frantic worry I express about the future.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby wig » 29 Mar 2018 10:54

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 523883.cms

the Maldive govt appears to be up to no good with the bakis
India remains upset with Male for the opaque manner in which it is carrying out not just its China policy but also its overtures to Pakistan. The latest issue niggling India is Male's decision to discuss with Islamabad a visit by Pakistan army chief Qamar Javed Bajwa without first bringing it to the notice of South Block. .
.
Despite its stated India First policy, the Yameen government has not bothered, unlike all other previous governments in Male, to take India into confidence on major issues in the spirit of mutual trust whether it's the Chinese investments in the Maldives or the ocean observatory Beijing wants to build right under India's nose

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby shiv » 29 Mar 2018 12:05

wig wrote:https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/maldivess-engagement-with-china-pakistan-too-secretive-for-india/articleshow/63523883.cms


.
Despite its stated India First policy, the Yameen government has not bothered, unlike all other previous governments in Male, to take India into confidence on major issues in the spirit of mutual trust[/2quote]

Hahahahahaaah :rotfl:

Simple. For the Maldivians talking to Pakis is not a major issue so no need to talk to India first.

I tell ya what imbeciles we have in the media writing meaningless trash....

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby chetak » 29 Mar 2018 12:07

wig wrote:https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/maldivess-engagement-with-china-pakistan-too-secretive-for-india/articleshow/63523883.cms

the Maldive govt appears to be up to no good with the bakis
India remains upset with Male for the opaque manner in which it is carrying out not just its China policy but also its overtures to Pakistan. The latest issue niggling India is Male's decision to discuss with Islamabad a visit by Pakistan army chief Qamar Javed Bajwa without first bringing it to the notice of South Block. .
.
Despite its stated India First policy, the Yameen government has not bothered, unlike all other previous governments in Male, to take India into confidence on major issues in the spirit of mutual trust whether it's the Chinese investments in the Maldives or the ocean observatory Beijing wants to build right under India's nose


why is south block whining and wringing it's hands helplessly?? Are they a bunch of ninnies??

Time for some hard measures starting with visa curbs on maldivian govt servants, politicos and their families, using India for medical, educational or tourist purposes.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Philip » 29 Mar 2018 20:19

They are using Lanka as their pit stop into civilisation more than India.Much easier to do biz and enjoy the pleasures of city life in Colombo a more pleasant city than any Indian metro.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby shiv » 29 Mar 2018 20:37

Philip wrote:They are using Lanka as their pit stop into civilisation more than India.Much easier to do biz and enjoy the pleasures of city life in Colombo a more pleasant city than any Indian metro.

The Chinese are a polite people who respect all races. I am sure Sri Lankans will love them as they fill Colombo's hotels. This is the same sri Lanka whose people were derisive of Indians when I met them in the UK in the early and mid-80s.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby pankajs » 30 Mar 2018 10:51

From the "Indian Navy News & Discussion" thread.
Continued from here viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7293&p=2262375#p2262365
Philip wrote:That is a direct quote from today's media report.Get your facts right.I do.

As far as the tadpole is concerned, a man who has imprisoned the SC CJ, judges ,oppn. leaders despite the SC ruling that they should be freed,ordinary people in their thousands turning the atolls into a veritable floating jail is a despot beyond the pale who should be sent to kingsim come asap.Where is the chance for the Maldivians to exercise their democratic rights when they are under the jackboot of a tyrant? The CJ of the SC pleaded for India to intervene but we behaved like ostriches! Shameful.Look how Putin has sent ISIS and the Saudi/Western mercenaries fleeing (read Robert Fisk's piece in the Independent UK today on how the Russians controlled and booted out the jihadis from Ghouta).

Plus tadpole Yameen who conspires with our worst enemies to stay in power , allowing them to encircle India with military bases ,deserves an epithet far more colourful.It is apologists and appeasers like you in babudom who are letting the country's legitimate security interests go abegging.Dereliction of duty is what I call it.We protest weakly and feebly while our enemies guffaw at our impotence! India's "Ostrich" diplomacy.

I am glad to be in the camp of an *apologists and appeaser* like Putin himself. You cannot go wrong emulating *Grandmaster* Putin as far backyard strategy is concerned.

You see I too recommend his Baltic strategy of all fart and no $hit. All he has done so far from 2000 till 2018, i.e 17 years and counting, is talk of "counter measures". You don't seem to agree with him on that. What is wrong with his "wait and watch" strategy?

I posted the link in the Maldives thread. If you want I can post them again here but I think that would be a waste of time and space.

This *regime change* gambit sounds so much like the neo-cons who took upon themselves to *civilize* the world and *spread democracy*. You are in good company.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Philip » 30 Mar 2018 11:19

You are so blinkered! You can't see global developments due to Putin and Russia's use of its mil power unlike the US/West which were the farters who achieved zilch becos as the Saudi crown prince has revealed to the US media, it was the West that sponsored and encouraged Wahaabism! Truth from the camel's back.

If I appear like a desi neo-con, then I'm proud of it.India must exercise its legitimate combined power to take its rightful place in the comity of nations and influence the world for good.We are not mercenary soldiers, UN cannon fodder in hotspots just as we once sent millions of our people to "take up the white man's burden" in his European wars! We are what we are, know who we are and must display who we are to the world and be respected ( and feared by our enemies)for the same.Nations should look up to us for leadership not down to witness our heads in the sand like ostriches, abdicatingb our responsibilities in our very own neighbourhood were the people are being tortured by a tinpot tadpole of a tyrant! This is being
advocated by some who are like the proverbial 3 monkeys.

Tell me.What would've happened if Indira Gandhi simply waited and watched when E.Pak was being butchered? She made every effort with the Western powers to rein in the Pakis and only then forced the issue, going to war with a heavily armed Pak supported to the hilt by both the US and China! Our insurance was the Indo- Soviet Treaty of Friendship and the Soviets/ Russia protected our back.
Here in the Maldives there is scant sign of India launching a few diplomutts to world capitals to obtain a consensus on the actions to be taken, let alone launching a little bumboat in the direction of Male to make Yameen soil his lungi! Deplorable.

I believe in crushing any threat to India's security at the earliest sign of trouble.If diplomacy and eco measures fail then use the stick. This was advocated by a former chief held in the highest respect.There is no place for "verbal warriors" in our establishment when we're dealing with the scumbags and sh*tworms of the globe like the Pakis, Chins and IOR "tadpoles".Remember Teddy R? " Speak softly and carry a big stick".India is carrying neither stick nor carrot but shamefully a " white flag"!

PS.Why the constant referring to the Baltics? Putin isn't lusting after Lithuania or Latvia or Estonia.He already has the enclave of Kaliningrad where he has just stationed missiles in response to NATO moving a few troops, etc. for symbolic reasons.S-400s and Iskander- Ms have/are being moved there as a response to the West.In fact just days ago he held a press conference in Kaluningrad at the Truth and Justice Forum.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby pankajs » 30 Mar 2018 11:49

I am only admiring Putin's neighborhood strategy in works for the last 17+ years. We must make it a point to learn form the success and failure of big countries e.g America, China and Russia. That has a lot to teach India in my humble opinion. I would rather India follow Grand-master Putin's neighborhood strategy than your neo-con strategy of spreading "democracy and civilization". Therefore my constant reference to Baltics in Russia's case and Taiwan in China's case as shining examples of strategy.

We too are not lusting after Maldives or Sri Lanka or Nepal or Bangladesh. Just as you yourself have acknowledged as Putin's response to Baltic has been "stationing missiles", which is what I recommend for India. If our missile can reach Bejing can they not reach Hambantota or Male or <pick your atoll>? I mean "Diego Garcia" is less than 2000 km from Indian peninsular what to talk of Maldives or Sri Lanka.

Thank you for bringing out that point. Coming from you it has a lot of credibility.

Philip wrote:Tell me.What would've happened if Indira Gandhi simply waited and watched when E.Pak was being butchered? She made every effort with the Western powers to rein in the Pakis and only then forced the issue, going to war with a heavily armed Pak supported to the hilt by both the US and China! Our insurance was the Indo- Soviet Treaty of Friendship and the Soviets/ Russia protected our back.
The answer is in your sentence wonlee but since you asked I will tell you. Last I heard, No one has been *butchered* in Maldives and we haven't yet seen a mass exodus from there. But you knew this did you not?

Philip wrote:Here in the Maldives there is scant sign of India launching a few diplomutts to world capitals to obtain a consensus on the actions to be taken, let alone launching a little bumboat in the direction of Male to make Yameen soil his lungi! Deplorable.
That sounds like a lot of butthurt to me and I firmly believe that butthurt should never form the basis of foreign policy. But hey that is just my view.

Philip wrote:I believe in crushing any threat to India's security at the earliest sign of trouble.If diplomacy and eco measures fail then use the stick. This was advocated by a former chief held in the highest respect.There is no place for "verbal warriors" in our establishment when we're dealing with the scumbags and sh*tworms of the globe like the Pakis, Chins and IOR "tadpoles".Remember Teddy R? " Speak softly and carry a big stick".India is carrying neither stick nor carrot but shamefully a " white flag".
Putin just pointed a few missile in response. That to me sound like a Grand-master level strategy.

I too recall Teddy R but I also recall last 17+ year of the Putin Teddy. I am torn between the two but for the sake of past friendship and nostalgia I will go with Putin saab.

Besides, one must also account for the difference in eras. Teddy R's time there were very little in Planes or Missiles. Teddy P's time we have missiles that are very accurate. One must adopt ones strategy with changing times. Don't trust my word, just ask Teddy Putin.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Philip » 30 Mar 2018 12:35

There is a difference.What is happening in both the Maldives and SL is the steady influx of Chinese on the ground just as they are doing in POK.At a future point in time, for all practical purposes they may end up as de-facto Chin territory or Chin independent enclaves . Had there been a land boundary with India, you would've seen a large no. of Maldivians fleeing to prevent being island imprisoned.Hiving off- a garage sale of 16 islands to the Chinese for 30 taels of sycee, indicates grave trouble for India .A few bumboats used now far easier to remedy the situ instead of missile exchanges which could be N- tipped from the Chin enclaves in the future.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby pankajs » 30 Mar 2018 12:50

Europeans and Americans have infiltrated all over the Russian "near abroad". Nato has expanded right up to the Russian border. Perhaps we will find Chins all over Maldives ad Sri Lanka. Possible. I am not discounting that.

On the N-tipped missile exchange there are 2 points.
1. Russia faces the same risk on its border at a later date wrt America in the Baltics.
2. Chin's don't need to deploy N-tipped missile in Maldives or Sri Lanka. They already are in a position to target every corner of India as of today from their mainland.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Trikaal » 30 Mar 2018 12:58

nam wrote:In a year's time the elections are coming up. Chances are the president may be forced to do it earlier.

Given that he has been arresting everyone left, right and center, chances of his loosing the elections are very high.

So instead of doing a regime change using the navy, it will done through the elections. Why the assumption "world's largest democracy" does not know how to use a election for it's won benefit?


Ohh I don't know, a small Himalayan country comes to mind. One that has an open border with India and is now firmly tilted towards China because the 'election results' weren't so good for India. After that, there's not much confidence for this election to go a different way.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby pankajs » 30 Mar 2018 13:04

I would suggest that we work with the following assumption

1. Our neighbors are going to use the China card against us. If they will become Chinese colony is debatable.
2. Even then try working "behind the scenes" to see if we can head them off. No politician worth his salt can be seen as talking orders from "big brother" India.
3. Intervention is both costly as well as very risky without any assured results, infact the results could be just be the reverse.
4. "Push" to participate in the development of the countries and create a real "win-win" projects but not fund white elephants.
5. In the mean time prepare to confront China in IOR and in case of extreme bad luck in Maldives and Sri Lanka.
6. Try integrating our neighbors with our economy but with an embedded kill switch.
7. Understand the Military power by itself will not secure our neighborhood for us. Get our own economy cranked up and make it lucrative for others especially our neighbors.
8. Understand the China will continue to look attractive for our neighbors till we are half the size of the Chinese economy. Our efforts should be to ensure that we can keep our neighbors engaged till then.
9. After that the pull of our economy + Cultural connect will enable us to turn the tide without much effect.

Ours is a holding operation for the next 10-15 years after which we will find the tide in our favor. It is going to be very tricky in the interim and we face a formidable and a very cunning power in China. That is without doubt.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Trikaal » 30 Mar 2018 13:08

pankajs wrote:Europeans and Americans have infiltrated all over the Russian "near abroad". Nato has expanded right up to the Russian border. Perhaps we will find Chins all over Maldives ad Sri Lanka. Possible. I am not discounting that.

On the N-tipped missile exchange there are 2 points.
1. Russia faces the same risk on its border at a later date wrt America in the Baltics.
2. Chin's don't need to deploy N-tipped missile in Maldives or Sri Lanka. They already are in a position to target every corner of India as of today from their mainland.


A missile launched from right next door has a lesser probability of interception than one launched from thousands of km away. Less reaction time. Besides, I think the main threat might be a squadron of fighter jets posted there to attack India from a third front in event of war. If we are under threat of attack from three sides, we will have to waste a lot more assets to guard our backs. It will complicate the security calculations and strategies.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby pankajs » 30 Mar 2018 13:21

We will know about a missile base or a air base much in advance. It is on a very different level of threat than from missile laden Warship/Sub docking.

You will get preparation time running into years to arrange proper defensive and offensive countermeasures including but not limited to per-emptive strikes. Any country that allows such a development by the very act declared itself as your enemy. After that what is there to hold India back.

Hit them and hit them hard and repeatedly including during peace time. That is a no brainier.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Chandragupta » 30 Mar 2018 13:26

Is it understood well in our neighbourhood that in the event of an Indo-China war, any military facility that China has on the subcontinent or in the vicinity, on third part soil, will be considered a legitimate target along with ALL supporting infrastructure?

While neighbours will keep on playing the China card, we can't stop them, but do we really think they hate India so much that they will turn themselves into a Chinese colony with Chinese mil bases, ports and boots? There is only one Pakistan, though, if BD ever falls into Islamist hands, we might have an issue.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby pankajs » 30 Mar 2018 13:41

One must not say such things in polite company but because folks are anxious let me put my "last resort" thinking in words.

What is the population of Maldives or Sri Lanka? In the worst case, Remember Ukraine and Georgia. That will always be the last resort only when GOI thinks that these countries are going to be lost for ever. Such scenarios are not to be talked about.


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