Maldives Civil-Military Issues

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Trikaal
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Trikaal » 30 Mar 2018 14:22

The point isn't whether India can make a Georgia out of Ukraine. It is that we shouldn't let things get to that point. USA didn't sit on it's ass when Russians tried to put missile batteries in Cuba. They didn't 'make Cuba understand that in the event of war,Russian facilities in Cuba will be targets'. They put a stop to it, simple as that. Sure this current situation isn't exactly comparable to that one, but being proactive means dealing with it before it goes to a point where stopping Maldives might mean a fight with China. USA had the balls to refuse Russia, will India have the same guts? I don't want to find out which is why I want this situation resolved NOW rather than later.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby pankajs » 30 Mar 2018 14:30

But did US "allow" USSR into Cuba before they deployed Missiles?

I am not much of a history buff but my bet would be on USSR presence/influence in Cuba much before the deployment of missiles.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Trikaal » 30 Mar 2018 14:53

Yes, USSR influence existed before the missile crisis. USSR helped install a Communist govt there. Similarly, China helped install Yameen in Maldives. There are many similarities. My point is India shouldn't wait for the situation to get to the point where China is given a military post in Maldives. We should remove Yameen now!
If the situation gets to the point where India and China have to face off because China is deploying military gear in Maldives, then I am not very confident about India being able to challenge China. The current govt might, but what if at that time we have Congress in coalition with CPI/M ? The last time Congress stood up to CPM, their govt almost fell. In that scenario can you confidently see India stopping China? We live in a democracy which means the future is not always predictable which is why it is all the more imperative to deal with threats on the horizon rather than waiting for them to become significantly large.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby ashish raval » 30 Mar 2018 15:01

Trikaal wrote:
pankajs wrote:Europeans and Americans have infiltrated all over the Russian "near abroad". Nato has expanded right up to the Russian border. Perhaps we will find Chins all over Maldives ad Sri Lanka. Possible. I am not discounting that.

On the N-tipped missile exchange there are 2 points.
1. Russia faces the same risk on its border at a later date wrt America in the Baltics.
2. Chin's don't need to deploy N-tipped missile in Maldives or Sri Lanka. They already are in a position to target every corner of India as of today from their mainland.


A missile launched from right next door has a lesser probability of interception than one launched from thousands of km away. Less reaction time. Besides, I think the main threat might be a squadron of fighter jets posted there to attack India from a third front in event of war. If we are under threat of attack from three sides, we will have to waste a lot more assets to guard our backs. It will complicate the security calculations and strategies.


Any country in their sanity will not allow China boots on its ground except Pakistan or Djibouti or someone who will default (Srilanka might choose to default than have a anti India military base). If such situation arises it must take into account full scenario of its total annihilation by Nuclear missile by India and total wipeout of Sinhala land and turn it back to Indian land.

It will be utter foolishness to do this. All they do is play India and China to extract freebies in the process.srilanka knows that Indian military will cover top to bottom of island in 48 hours and anything crawling on the ground will be dead.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Trikaal » 30 Mar 2018 15:15

ashish raval wrote:Any country in their sanity will not allow China boots on its ground except Pakistan or Djibouti or someone who will default (Srilanka might choose to default than have a anti India military base). If such situation arises it must take into account full scenario of its total annihilation by Nuclear missile by India and total wipeout of Sinhala land and turn it back to Indian land.

It will be utter foolishness to do this. All they do is play India and China to extract freebies in the process.srilanka knows that Indian military will cover top to bottom of island in 48 hours and anything crawling on the ground will be dead.


Sadly, many countries don't think that way presently. They continue to take actions that hurt Indian interest without bothering about consequences. Our inaction on people like Yameen have only bolstered these countries. It is a foolish course of action, yet we have Prachanda and KP Oli showing India the finger and pivoting towards China. Chinese boots are present in Gwadar and expected in Hambantota. Maldives also seems to be going that way unless we do something.

P.S.- Even in Seychelles, the opposition party is looking like it will scrap the Assumption Island deal with India. How much do you wanna bet that there's Chinese money involved in this? So you can see how these people continue to hurt Indian interests even when they know they can't stand up to India. This will continue untill we show them that we mean business and messing with our interests will carry dire consequences.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby pankajs » 30 Mar 2018 15:35

Intervention is easy the aftermath is tough especially with fundaoos in play.

The best way to approach the issue is how do you manage a post intervention setup? Lets start with the basic question in the context of Maldives.
1. Will India annex Maldives and appoint a viceroy?
2. Will India oust the current regime and put its favorite establish democracy and stay to keep things in check?
3. Will India oust the current regime and put its favorite establish democracy and depart?

If one cannot manage the aftermath of an intervention then the intervention can turn worthless or even harmful. And think through to the end because there are tough questions ahead.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Bart S » 30 Mar 2018 15:55

ashish raval wrote:
Trikaal wrote:
A missile launched from right next door has a lesser probability of interception than one launched from thousands of km away. Less reaction time. Besides, I think the main threat might be a squadron of fighter jets posted there to attack India from a third front in event of war. If we are under threat of attack from three sides, we will have to waste a lot more assets to guard our backs. It will complicate the security calculations and strategies.


Any country in their sanity will not allow China boots on its ground except Pakistan or Djibouti or someone who will default (Srilanka might choose to default than have a anti India military base). If such situation arises it must take into account full scenario of its total annihilation by Nuclear missile by India and total wipeout of Sinhala land and turn it back to Indian land.

It will be utter foolishness to do this. All they do is play India and China to extract freebies in the process.srilanka knows that Indian military will cover top to bottom of island in 48 hours and anything crawling on the ground will be dead.


You are making the assumption that, that is how they see us. It could be, based on propensity for inaction and making chanakyan excuses for not standing up assertively for our interests, that they see us as a sort of elephant with downs syndrome who is so messed up that it is not a threat. Their actions make perfect sense if that is their perspective.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby shiv » 30 Mar 2018 16:46

Bart S wrote:You are making the assumption that, that is how they see us. It could be, based on propensity for inaction and making chanakyan excuses for not standing up assertively for our interests, that they see us as a sort of elephant with downs syndrome who is so messed up that it is not a threat. Their actions make perfect sense if that is their perspective.

While no one can dismiss this viewpoint as wrong the fact remains that a nation of 1.2 billion people with the largest armed forces in the area who have been involved in military engagements in/with every neighbouring country can be mocked but not ignored. If you look at agreements that India signs with these small nations - I repeat that they sound hypocritical to me but they work as long as India keeps its side of the bargain. For example - look at fisheries. India could theoretically swamp small littoral states with our fishing boats and disrespect their maritime rights but we do not. They know this damn well.

My only problem is that a large number of Indians are a people who think like a small nation and cannot see India's heft. That said - India - from the time of Nehru has chosen to behave like a small nation and talks to small nations like a "fellow small nation". This worked well for "non alignment" but as India grows in heft and as India does and displays power parameters that rival the largest and most powerful nations (economy, military, space - nuclear power) and enters into dialogs and competitions with "large and powerful" nations - only Indian goodwill or Indian hypocrisy is needed to talk to and relate to a small nation like a "fellow small nation" which we are not by any stretch of imagination.

As a matter of foreign policy - one characteristic of "power blocs" has been for a large power to dominate nearby small nations and either coerce them or cajole them into joining the "power bloc" of that large power. It has pointedly never been Indian policy to dominate nearby small states - because Indian policy is to treat nearby small states as "fellow small state". But Indian power cannot be invisible to these nations. Gaandmasti can only go so far. But for us to interfere and replace governments or "give then dhimmocracy" - India will need a shift in foreign policy and probable tearing up of a whole lot of agreements we have made.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby ashish raval » 30 Mar 2018 16:49

Bart S wrote:
ashish raval wrote:
Any country in their sanity will not allow China boots on its ground except Pakistan or Djibouti or someone who will default (Srilanka might choose to default than have a anti India military base). If such situation arises it must take into account full scenario of its total annihilation by Nuclear missile by India and total wipeout of Sinhala land and turn it back to Indian land.

It will be utter foolishness to do this. All they do is play India and China to extract freebies in the process.srilanka knows that Indian military will cover top to bottom of island in 48 hours and anything crawling on the ground will be dead.


You are making the assumption that, that is how they see us. It could be, based on propensity for inaction and making chanakyan excuses for not standing up assertively for our interests, that they see us as a sort of elephant with downs syndrome who is so messed up that it is not a threat. Their actions make perfect sense if that is their perspective.

As far as my cognizance of the matter goes about all the Indian ocean island nation goes, it is national policy to use their land as carrot for large powers to extract freebies and sweeteners and the moment one reduces that kitty they lean on the other. Mauritius tried in the past but now back in Indic fold, Seychelles dabbled but it still has saner heads, Srilanka realized late in the game but before it could become one party nation they changed the government. Maldives on the other hand is malsi nation and by the very nature they will hate to be dominated by dharmic nation but will be happily lick a non dharmic ba**s everyday of their life. So I see Maldives as a isolated case from other nations here. India is a decade away from where China is now so I believe if you try to be antagonise a nation of billion people with couple of hours of Su-30 ride while assuming that a more powerful friend who can only help you at 24 hours notice by sending one ship because it passed through the area where sharks like Vikram Aditya are prowling the waters then dare I say, Good luck!!! That country has produced brilliants foreign policy (d**k)heads.

Later addition: completely agree with Shiv saar observations.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby shiv » 30 Mar 2018 17:41

The "large and powerful nations of the world" (among whom a lot of Indians do not count India because of a "we are small only" stance taken by our nation ) discuss a whole lot of issues that concern them. Among these issues are trade, tariffs, environment, resources etc. In these issues India simply cannot be left out any more. Yes we were outside just 30 years ago when I was a younger man, but no longer. But a man of my age from the Maldives, Sri Lanka, Nepal or Bhutan for that matter will never see his nation being counted in a group that discusses those things. However when larger nations reach decisions about some of these topics - the smaller nations are affected. In many negotiations India may take a stance that is helpful to these smaller nations because of similarities in wealth/social conditions. They know these things damn well. Only a totally delusional view would fail to see that size matters even if we pretend that it does not matter. Literally the "elephant in the room".

Two points: Please note these points because they interact with each other in an amusing way in Indian minds
1. India is not going to be ignored anytime soon without inviting consequences that can reflect on a small littoral state's economy and status
2. For its part India is not actively attempting to interfere with small states to change their government or stop them from having international relations and trade with other nations.

I see these two facts being used to create the following mental picture of India:

"Large powerful nations can, do, and must impose their power and will on smaller states and show who is boss. This is what all "big boys" do. Examples of this are bla, blah and blarh. Since India does not do this it is NOT a large and powerful state, It is not a big boy"

Once again this logic is a case of petitio principii - a circular argument where the conclusion is taken for granted in the premise itself

So India cannot be a big boy unless it imposes its will on other smaller states because that is how we think big boys behave.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Trikaal » 30 Mar 2018 18:14

shiv wrote:The "large and powerful nations of the world" (among whom a lot of Indians do not count India because of a "we are small only" stance taken by our nation ) discuss a whole lot of issues that concern them. Among these issues are trade, tariffs, environment, resources etc. In these issues India simply cannot be left out any more. Yes we were outside just 30 years ago when I was a younger man, but no longer. But a man of my age from the Maldives, Sri Lanka, Nepal or Bhutan for that matter will never see his nation being counted in a group that discusses those things. However when larger nations reach decisions about some of these topics - the smaller nations are affected. In many negotiations India may take a stance that is helpful to these smaller nations because of similarities in wealth/social conditions. They know these things damn well. Only a totally delusional view would fail to see that size matters even if we pretend that it does not matter. Literally the "elephant in the room".

Two points: Please note these points because they interact with each other in an amusing way in Indian minds
1. India is not going to be ignored anytime soon without inviting consequences that can reflect on a small littoral state's economy and status
2. For its part India is not actively attempting to interfere with small states to change their government or stop them from having international relations and trade with other nations.

I see these two facts being used to create the following mental picture of India:

"Large powerful nations can, do, and must impose their power and will on smaller states and show who is boss. This is what all "big boys" do. Examples of this are bla, blah and blarh. Since India does not do this it is NOT a large and powerful state, It is not a big boy"

Once again this logic is a case of petitio principii - a circular argument where the conclusion is taken for granted in the premise itself

So India cannot be a big boy unless it imposes its will on other smaller states because that is how we think big boys behave.


Remember OBOR ? Big boy India decided to boycott it saying our sovereignty is violated by it as it passes through POK. How many of these small countries towed our line? How many of these small countries think it was fine to ignore Indian advice to reject OBOR? Nepal? Bangladesh? Debt ridden Sri Lanka? Maldives? These countries continue to ignore India on their whims because there are no consequences. Be it soft or hard power, India continues to flounder in exerting its influence. The Maldives saga is just another one among many.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby shiv » 30 Mar 2018 18:25

Trikaal wrote:
Remember OBOR ? Big boy India decided to boycott it saying our sovereignty is violated by it as it passes through POK. How many of these small countries towed our line? How many of these small countries think it was fine to ignore Indian advice to reject OBOR? Nepal? Bangladesh? Debt ridden Sri Lanka? Maldives? These countries continue to ignore India on their whims because there are no consequences. Be it soft or hard power, India continues to flounder in exerting its influence. The Maldives saga is just another one among many.

No there are no consequences. As I see it - the problem is in expecting that there should be consequences if these small nations do not do what India does.

This is EXACTLY what I pointed out in my post and your point is a perfect example

Indian policy allows these nations to have an independent foreign policy. It is your angst that India does that as policy. You WANT India to do something different and choose to express this desire in a mocking manner by trying to shame Indian policy (and sound like you are self flagellating) by saying India cannot be a big boy until it forces consequences on these small nations. However India's bigboyness will not be reflected by forcing piddly nations to screw themselves. India's bigboyness will come by offering alternatives to OBOR and by ensuring that CPEC does not work.

Screwing small nations in my view is chutiyapa and not a sign of being a power with some clout. But that is my view. I am not asking you to change your view. I am comfortable with my view.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby ashish raval » 30 Mar 2018 18:37

India cannot be a big boy unless it imposes its will on other smaller states because that is how we think big boys behave.


I think to impose the will without having to lift a finger with the counterpart, we are a decade away and has to indegenize lot of technology to rank in in big 3 (military and computer hardware). It does means that these mosquito nations can buzz around for the time and feel great about it. However it is rightly said that India is an Elephant who is sleeping but one cannot ignore that beast . We have started some positive impact by pushing in climate change deal, solar alliance etc and every new generation will be bolder and more forceful like Virat Kohli and not pussy cats of 20th century and to be fair India has done large scale evacuation in the gulf etc showing the signs of a mature power and gained a goodwill around the world. This is mainly the reason that rise of India baring ranting by trump et al is not seen as inimical to democracy and free world whereas China is seen as darker force and threat to free will. Backlash against then has not reached a critical mass but once it will, then there will be big backlash against those merchants and it will be hard to contain. India on the other hand is rising steadily at a measured pace without looking into other people.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby rsingh » 30 Mar 2018 20:04

^^^Well Said.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Philip » 30 Mar 2018 20:52

The Cuban crisis is a good example of pro-active diplomacy backed by mil force- naval blockade, that too with the only other superpower of the time! That in backing down Kruschev quietly got BMs removed from Turkey (?) in return was kept a secret.But JFK took the bull by the horns.Had he "waited and watched" and sent diplomatic notes of "dismay",or "befitting replies" Indian style sent ad nauseum to Pak, Cuba would still bristle with the latest Ru weaponry and the Russians be firmly entrenched in South and Central America operating out of Cuba.

In the Maldives, we went to its rescue not long ago when there was a water crisis.We were already pissed off with Yameen and helped him but he did nothing to curb his anti-Indian activities.Every PL-480 shipment of wheat to India had to get LBJs approval. That is diplomatic powerplay.We have been woefully wanting in the Maldives and SL.No one wants us ruling another nation like a British or European colony, with our own viceroy installed.We are very happy ,as is their sovereign right for them to rule themselves
However, the price for our goodwill, eco assistance ,friendship in time of need ( aftermath of the tsunami in SL, water crisis in the Maldives,etc.) , must be a clear bi-lateral agreement never to allow any external force to squat on its territory in any form which has grave security implications for India, as seen in the Chin port deals in SL and planned Chin takeaway in the Maldives.This could even be a mutual agreement which the Lankans would wish very much.

Allowing such an intrusion is crossing the red line which requires swift counteraction from India.At the slightest sign of trouble we must act diplomatically first.Economically next, keep turning the screw until the other side cries "uncle".In the Maldives, we've earlier spent enough time for our message to get across, more than required, we have sent mild diplomatic remonstrations,but the reply has been snub after snub to downright arrogance and insult today.

The problem is that the MEA is clueless about the security aspect content in general, preferring making grand speeches pompous pronouncements and drafting umpteen agreements, in finest diplomuttic verbiage when firang leaders visit,.These usually amounting to nothing much in real terms, but to give the illusion to all that the visit was a success.Diplomatic kabuki.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby shiv » 30 Mar 2018 22:05

Philip wrote:The Cuban crisis is a good example of pro-active diplomacy backed by mil force- naval blockade, that too with the only other superpower of the time!

Which ships would the Indian navy have stopped? There were no Chinese ships to stop. I mean I understand that there are opinions that say that we should have taken a more "miltant" stand in the Maldives - but bereft of vital details like what ships we should have stopped and who we should have installed as leader - all these powerful appeals sound like empty words. The US did not manage to change the Cuban leader for 55 years after the 1962 crisis after which he croaked on his own. So the validity of the comparison escapes me.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Philip » 31 Mar 2018 05:38

JFK took pro-active measures to prevent Cuba from becoming a Sov. missile base on his doorstep at the earliest.That's the analogy.Had he waited and waited and watched and watched.....as we are doing, removing the missiles after the Sovs became fully entrenched would've been impossible.He did not send letters of protest, " dismay", etc. and counted like sheep the numbers of missiles and troops, mil eqpt. going into Cuba, which if we continue waiting and watching will sadly have to record.
-JFK said "get them out of here or else..", and it worked.Though Kruschev got in return removal of US missiles in Turkey , it was globally seen as a loss of face for him and the USSR and he was ousted later on.

In the Maldives a naval blockade alone would be enough to scare off tourists, tourism the backbone of the economy.Most hotels and resorts are owned by ministers/ politicos who would be worst affected.A blockade now would prevent foreign troops reinforcing Male, complicating any future intervention by India.
" Prevention being better than a cure"!

Ps: Just for info. During the Kargil war, there was a de-facto blockade of Pak which had only 10 days of fuel for its forces.As the peaks started falling to India and the fear that we would turn the screw further, the "sherrif" ran to Uncle Sam for deliverance.The IN later on gave special briefings to its officers on its activities and plans during the crisis.We used IT warfare to our advantage.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby pankajs » 31 Mar 2018 07:17

1. JFK was so "pro-active" that missile were deployed in Cuba hanji? That is called pro-active!!! We will have to revise the meaning of pro-active to make that work.
2. Has any missiles been deployed in Maldives yet? If not how can we be "pro-active" like JFK? I mean we could be pro-active as it is commonly understood but it won't be "pro-active" like JFK.
3. JFK said "get them out of here or else.." .. whooo .. WHAT? He said "get them OUT"? Out what? Soviets or the missiles? Soviets stayed in Cuba before "get them out" and after that too.
4. If JFK said "get them out of here or else.." that to me looks like having been said AFTER whatever he wanted OUT was already IN.
5. Py the way in case you haven't noticed, this "get them out" does not sit well with "Pro-Active". At least that is how it sounds to me.
6. Did this JFK also succeed in getting regime change?

You can do better that than or perhaps you figured no one would pick on the contradiction. Unforced errors makes your arguments weak rather than strong. But that is just my view. Please continue.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Philip » 31 Mar 2018 07:29

Finally the Europeans may act while we " wait and watch"!
European airlines may suspend flights to the Maldives this summer, putting pressure upon the Maldives to restore democracy.European tourists account for approx. 70% of tourists, India 6%, but Chins a whopping 20%!
30% of its GDP is from tourism.What thd EU should do too is a total ban on fish/tuna from the Maldives and cripple the despotic govt.Maldivians won't starve, there's heaps of sea food.

The Chinese may send more of their " tourists" and buy more Maldy fish, but the eco pressure is hurting and these measures if implemented will hurt more.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Philip » 31 Mar 2018 07:44

Nitpicking as usual and missing the wood for the trees.
JFK wanted the missiles ( not Soviets) out from Cuba.His pro-active diplomacy, to get them out , study your history, backed by a naval blockade worked.Objective attained.His bumbling CIA tried over 250 times to assassinate Castro and failed.He could not accomplish regime change, the Bay of Pigs invasion was a fiasco and he blamed the CIA firing Dulles.The right wing establishment, CIA and Mafia took him and RFK out of the equation.But that's a different story.

The Indian objective in the Maldives ,whose honcho loudly says that we are its best friend while cohabiting both overtly and covertly with China and Pak, should be a clear understanding ( and formal security pact later) allowing no foreign power other than India to establish any kind of military or maritime research establishment on its territory.The violation of that will leave India free to take any measures it feels necessary to safeguard its interests including intervention by force.

Yameen has gone back on his previous assurances to the GOI of the same,made ad nauseum by his visiting ministers to India, which is why the stick has to be taken out of the cupboard and brandished in his face.Thus far it has not been done and is only encouraging both China and Pak to ramp up their support to him so that the cost of any later intervention by India will deter us forever.If you can't understand the gravity of the situ join the "Ostrich and Appeasement club".

I've said enough on the issue for now until developments take place.I reiterate.So far India's diplomacy has been an abject failure. Cowardice is rampant in Lutyens' Delhi. We are rapidly losing the plot with grave implications for our security.Others may disagree, that's their perogative.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby pankajs » 31 Mar 2018 07:58

This is what I had written. Only changed the color highlight. This was before the Cuban missile crisis became the straw that folks are holding on to.
pankajs wrote:We will know about a missile base or a air base much in advance. It is on a very different level of threat than from missile laden Warship/Sub docking.

You will get preparation time running into years to arrange proper defensive and offensive countermeasures including but not limited to per-emptive strikes. Any country that allows such a development by the very act declared itself as your enemy. After that what is there to hold India back.

Hit them and hit them hard and repeatedly including during peace time. That is a no brainier.

Now I would call the above "wait and watch". It is in no way "pro-active". To me what JFK did sound so "wait and watch" but if you insist I fully endorse his "pro-active" policy on Cuban missile crisis.

1. Wait for an event to occur and don't preempt.
2. AFTER that take whatever measures that is need to get the situation back on balance.

Everything that you claim JFK did was a response i.e it came after Soviet missiles where already in Cuba. You can indulge in as much word play as you want but it will not change the facts on the Cuban missile crisis and JFK's handling of it on "Wait and watch" mode. That pretty much sums up the woods and the trees.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Philip » 31 Mar 2018 08:18

Study the Cuban crisis carefully.After the failed Bay of Pigs invasion, Castro requested Kruschev for missiles and mil eqpt. to deter the US. K agreed and supplies began.The Soviets were shipping the missiles in secret! The US was completely blindsided.They did not " watch and wait".JFK initially
thought that the stories about missiles in Cuba were bogus, but with increasing local intel saying the same he immediately authorised U-2 recce overflights which provided the evidence that missiles had been delivered and launching pads completed, missiles erected in position.
He then publicly confronted the Soviets with the evidence and demanded their removal.In return for their removal the US also vowed never to invade Chba and secretly dismantled their missiles in Turkey.Some also say missiles in Italy too, but the jury is out on that fact.K removed all missiles and bombers from Cuba as part of the agreement.

There was a brilliant documentary with interviews of the remaining diplomats of that period on both sides of what actually happened. WW3 almost broke out and only some deft behind the scenes diplomacy averted war.Each side kept misunderstanding the other as the mil situ escalated.It was a close call.
Last edited by Philip on 31 Mar 2018 08:28, edited 3 times in total.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby pankajs » 31 Mar 2018 08:24

Philip wrote:Study the Cuban crisis carefully.The Soviets were shipping the missiles in secret! The US was completely blindsided.They did not " watch and wait".JFK immediately authorised recce overflights which provided the evidence that missules had been delivered and launching pads completed, missiles erected in position.

With your posts to guide me I don't even have to read wiki. Just re-read what you have written. How does it sound? Pro-active or Reactive i.e. "Wait and watch"?

1. "JFK immediately authorised recce overflights" .. What? That is so "wait and watch"!!!
2. "provided the evidence that missules had been delivered" ... What .. WHAT? That is so "wait and watch"
3. [From previous posts] Naval blockage and the works AFTER the missiles had been place in Cuba. That too is so "wait and watch"

Why are you doing this to yourself? You are making my case again and again and again with every post. I envy you not.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Philip » 31 Mar 2018 08:32

Rubbish! My points are completely the opposite of what you're alleging.JFK did not " wait and watch" missiles being shipped to Cuba.He was taken by complete surprise, immediately confirmed their presence( that is not waiting or watching) and enforced a blockade.
Your ignorance of the English language is so hilarious that it is a complete waste of time debating with you.Keep "waiting and watching".

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby pankajs » 31 Mar 2018 08:35

== deleted ==
Last edited by pankajs on 31 Mar 2018 21:30, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby chetak » 31 Mar 2018 10:35

ashish raval wrote:
India cannot be a big boy unless it imposes its will on other smaller states because that is how we think big boys behave.


I think to impose the will without having to lift a finger with the counterpart, we are a decade away and has to indegenize lot of technology to rank in in big 3 (military and computer hardware). It does means that these mosquito nations can buzz around for the time and feel great about it. However it is rightly said that India is an Elephant who is sleeping but one cannot ignore that beast . We have started some positive impact by pushing in climate change deal, solar alliance etc and every new generation will be bolder and more forceful like Virat Kohli and not pussy cats of 20th century and to be fair India has done large scale evacuation in the gulf etc showing the signs of a mature power and gained a goodwill around the world. This is mainly the reason that rise of India baring ranting by trump et al is not seen as inimical to democracy and free world whereas China is seen as darker force and threat to free will. Backlash against then has not reached a critical mass but once it will, then there will be big backlash against those merchants and it will be hard to contain. India on the other hand is rising steadily at a measured pace without looking into other people.


True.

Also, if one were to analyze the demands of the neighboring states as articulated by some of the more inimical and aggressive sections of their societies, the costs are already being imposed by India but not aired publicly.

What does SL really, really want from us??, or the beedis or the nepalese??

Figure that out to see where they are actually hurting and why.

Sometimes, dharmically speaking and unlike the hans who have always been a petty minded transactional civilization, India gives without expectations of any return. This is a historical truth. When such largesse is irrationally sought to be rationalized and normalized by our neighbors, there is bound to be some degree of cognitive dissonance.

It is not a cost that India should ever be bearing, nor demands that India should be acquiescing with.

In the end, beggars can't be choosers. The alms giver will always prevail in such situations.

When we helped liberate the beedis and then we simply walked away without demanding or even negotiating some tangible returns or even the expectation of repayment for our troubles and again when we returned the 93,000 POWs back to the pakis without imposing costs on them and foolish IG did it without debate or consensus from the Indian society at large, or even when we intervened in the maldives and left quietly without asking for our pound of flesh, we were judged to be weak and hence a pushover.

Therefore these piddly and shitty countries have absolutely no fear of pissing us off. There will never be a downside to such a course of action. Hindus have no institutional memories, unlike the hans.

This is also why the pakis are pressing for "settlement" on cashmere because they are hoping that there will nil costs for them to bear and India will once again and foolishly settle by handing over the entire area in our "Hindu" concept of magnanimity. They are expecting us to hand over all of cashmere, including the dams and all.


Indeed this feeling is so deeply embedded and institutionalized internationally that Richard Haass told shekar coupta, in a recent interview on walk the talk, that regarding the pakis, and on the cashmere issue, "India should be magnanimous to a fault"

watch from 18:50 mins for the specific sentence.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-8PAMs31uTI

"Trump Not A Republican President": Richard N Haass



This is what the amreki deep state has been telling India privately for years now and it is also why the pakis are pleading and begging for the amrekis to intervene on the cashmere issue.

This is also what the lootyens mafia and presstitutes in dilli have always been and are still fiercely advocating for years now as is the multitude of ISI funded, commie led track thoo biryani, tandoori and single malt fests that always "manage" to happen in lavish and exotic locales.

sold out entities like MSA, sudhindra kulkarni, prashant bushan, runditv presstitutes et al, just to name a few are profiteers from this orchestrated misery.

It also means that the amrekis are hurting really, really badly due to our unprecedented and robust response on the borders with the pakis.

That is how the malsis have been hardwired and conditioned to view us since times immemorial. That is also precisely how our neighbors view us too.

This is not how these very same "neighbors" would dare to deal with the hans.

If things do not happen as per their expectations of unconditional and perpetual largesse from India, then the resentment builds and spills over.

And this is also why we should never distance ourselves from the russkis. It would be suicidal for our future, both in and out of the UNSC.

Go figure.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby nam » 31 Mar 2018 16:34

Trikaal wrote:
nam wrote:In a year's time the elections are coming up. Chances are the president may be forced to do it earlier.

Given that he has been arresting everyone left, right and center, chances of his loosing the elections are very high.

So instead of doing a regime change using the navy, it will done through the elections. Why the assumption "world's largest democracy" does not know how to use a election for it's won benefit?


Ohh I don't know, a small Himalayan country comes to mind. One that has an open border with India and is now firmly tilted towards China because the 'election results' weren't so good for India. After that, there's not much confidence for this election to go a different way.


Sure. I take Nepalese whiter than white, that their politicians will not take Indian money in the next election.

May be Nepalese would prefer to get employed in Tibet, once we gave away their right to work in India.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Philip » 01 Apr 2018 07:45

In the current context of our "losses" in the neighbourhood,TJS George - .asks in today's Ind.Exp.

" Why do neighbours dislike India ?".

An xcpt: India's handling of Nepal one disaster after another.At least after monarchy was replaced by democracy , Delhi should've realised that this neighbour deserved more attention and more respect than it was accorded in the past.

SL.China's " virtual purchase" of HT port and the " New Colombo" land reclamaion near the harbour gives it an " unparalleled strategic advantage .Across Sri Lanka today what one sees is China and more China".
"China looks 100 yrs ahead, India looks to the next general election"!

That sums up beautifully India's foreign policy. :((

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby pankajs » 01 Apr 2018 07:55

" Why do neighbours dislike India ?".
"Delhi should've realised that this neighbour deserved more attention and more respect than it was accorded in the past."

And yet the solution being proposed it to treat them like "tadpoles"?!! A Naval blockade of Maldives on suspicion and fear of an unknown future would endear us to all our neighbors? This constant talk of stick would make our neighbors like us if it is like we are after?

Wah Janab!

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby TKiran » 01 Apr 2018 08:24

India is useless to 'friendly' nations, India is harmless to those 'friendly' nations who hurt India's interests.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby pankajs » 01 Apr 2018 08:27

Given that we are on the topic of like and respect of neighbors ...

JFK's failed "pro-active" bay of pigs invasion made such an impact, i.e like/love/respect take your pick, on Cuba that it decided to import Soviet missiles into the island.

Again .. Wah Janab wonlee!

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby pankajs » 01 Apr 2018 08:49

TKiran wrote:India is useless to 'friendly' nations, India is harmless to those 'friendly' nations who hurt India's interests.

India is as useless and harmless in its own neighborhood as Russia in the Baltic republic and China in Taiwan. Nothing wrong is admitting it.

I have always advocate learning from both the success and failures of big countries like America, China and Russia.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby shiv » 01 Apr 2018 09:49

Philip wrote:In the current context of our "losses" in the neighbourhood,TJS George - .asks in today's Ind.Exp.

" Why do neighbours dislike India ?".

That is a funny question. Do we Indians feel short of love that we want our neighbours to love us? China does not seem to have this hang-up of wanting neighbours to love them

But beyond the frivolity - huge neighbours are always a problem even if small nations benefit immensely from those neighbours. But it's OT for this thread.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby pankajs » 01 Apr 2018 09:59

pankajs wrote:I would suggest that we work with the following assumption

1. Our neighbors are going to use the China card against us. If they will become Chinese colony is debatable.
2. Even then try working "behind the scenes" to see if we can head them off. No politician worth his salt can be seen as talking orders from "big brother" India.
3. Intervention is both costly as well as very risky without any assured results, infact the results could be just be the reverse.
4. "Push" to participate in the development of the countries and create a real "win-win" projects but not fund white elephants.
5. In the mean time prepare to confront China in IOR and in case of extreme bad luck in Maldives and Sri Lanka.
6. Try integrating our neighbors with our economy but with an embedded kill switch.
7. Understand the Military power by itself will not secure our neighborhood for us. Get our own economy cranked up and make it lucrative for others especially our neighbors.
8. Understand the China will continue to look attractive for our neighbors till we are half the size of the Chinese economy. Our efforts should be to ensure that we can keep our neighbors engaged till then.
9. After that the pull of our economy + Cultural connect will enable us to turn the tide without much effect.

Ours is a holding operation for the next 10-15 years after which we will find the tide in our favor. It is going to be very tricky in the interim and we face a formidable and a very cunning power in China. That is without doubt.

http://www.orfonline.org/research/india ... a-subtext/
India’s Seychelles military base roadblock has a China subtext
No fair winds for India?

The big question in everyone’s mind is whether after the recent Maldives problem, the Seychelles event represents a setback for India.

This it does, though the two cases are different. In the Maldives, there is a domestic context, whereas the Seychelles’ public protests are somewhat suspicious since the opposition leader is ready to support the agreement. China is the subtext of India’s troubles in both the Maldives and the Seychelles, though its hand in the Maldives is clearer. But this is par for the course. Small countries like Seychelles, Mauritius, Maldives and even Sri Lanka are prone to external meddling. But, they also find it useful to play off two larger countries in their own interests, and you cannot begrudge them that.

China is a new entrant into the Indian Ocean, and there is a lot of concern over its development of ports and infrastructure and links with various countries. We should not overstate their significance. As a major trading nation, China will develop and manage ports, and seek secure sea lanes. But as of now and probably for the next 15 years and more, China will not have significant military capability in the Indian Ocean, at least nothing compared to what India and the United States possess.

India’s current focus in its ties with the Indian Ocean island states is to push forward its its maritime domain awareness project. This involves working together with the island states to help police their EEZs by tracking the movement of various vessels through a chain of coastal radars that India has funded and established. The goal is to assist capacity-building of the facilities, something New Delhi has been involved with well before China came into the picture, rather than any sinister military purpose.

That is the window of opportunity for India, 10-15 year ahead. If we play it right we will be on stronger footing in our neighborhood. We need to work on our economy and make it lucrative for our neighbors + distance + cultural connect would see us through even if Indian economy is 1/3 to 1/2 of the Chinese economy by 2032-35. Remember our focus area for the near future remains IOR i.e. Just off our coast and not world domination. This is assuming no major disruption for either China or India.

This is not to say that we shouldn't focus on ramping up on the Military side but a Military state without the economic heft backing it is hollow like the USSR or Russia. But a sound economy will allow us to ramp up our Military capacity faster and extend our reach further. One just has to look at China after 2008 when it was less than 1/2 America in GDP.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Philip » 02 Apr 2018 04:00

The speed and scale of the Chin naval expansion has taken the world by surprise.China had been planning for this decades ago.When I predicted during the last century regular patrols by PLAN warships and subs post 2000, I was laughed at.China resolved the Malacca dilemma politically, by exploiting India's diplomatic weakness, arrogance and insensitivity to its neighbours.

" Money makes the mare go",and corrupt S.Asian leaders in our neighbourhood like the Rajapakses, Yameen and the Pakis, made it easier for China to buy them off with dollops of aid, ropes attached, binding them into becoming vassal states for the PRC, having to sell their family jewels in return.Actually selling or leasing home territory , resulting in virtual sovereign Chin territory right in our backyard ! SL has become a Chin " Cuba" to India and there is nothing that we can do right now short of physical intervention.The buddhist monk leading the anti- Chin protests in H'tota threatened to tear down the Chinese flag which the slitty-eyed scumbags of the PRC actually raised at the port! If any joker in our MEA thinks otherwise that this is not a Chinese invasion by stealth, he must be sent to the loony bin.

There is NO window of opportunity for India at all.Not in 5, 10 or 15 years time.That is a load of vacuous thinking, like hoping that the problem will resolve itself, ostrich-like, becos China has no proper "bases" in the IOR despite its "landing on the beaches" so to say.The evidence speaks otherwise. Look at the sheer speed with which it has vaitually taken away the ICS. The almost overnight appearance of airstrips and other facilities to support aircraft and warships , plus heavily defended with missiles too.Djibouti in the Gulf of Aden is a fait accompli.Gwadar and Jiwani plain sailing for the PLAN there with Karachi also available anytime for logistic support. In the north, Nepal has embraced China.Before we know it the other Chin "squats" will similarly grow while our politicos fight each other at home , fiddling and farting at each other, aided by the Chin " fifth column"- our babus, bent on denying the armed forces the required money for a credible programme of modernisation and expansion to meet the Sino- Pak JV juggernaut,forgetting the neighbourhood while casting a line further afar.

China's rate of naval construction is double than that of India's .They are building twice as many warships and subs than we can.Even the first home built 65K t carrier started well after our IAC-1 of 45K t began! The PLAN carrier is now undergoing her sea trials while our carrier hasn't even been finished! Therefore in a few years time we will see approx. double the amt. of Chin. naval assets in the IOR showing the "red flag" to the world.

Foreign policy is a coin with two sides.One side military strength which backs the other, diplomacy.It is here that we are failing miserably.India's diplomutts and strategists can pluck their hair out to their heart's content during the next 15 years, simply waiting and watching as the iron fist of China aided by Pak closes in on India.The point is, what are we seriously going to do about it? So far we have only plans on paper.The finger in our eye by the Seychelles bears out my diatribe against our munchkins in the MEA.All talk, can't walk. Results? We can list them in all their glory.

As said before, if we are serious about meeting the Chin invasion of our backyard, then it calls for a holistic approach, whereby we use the combined forces of military,diplomatic, economic, cultural and religious disciplines simultaneously to sway our neighbours to our side and achieve results favourable to us.

PS: However there is no need to be defeatist.There are solutions but it requires us to be pro-active in foreign policy using diplomacy backed by mil. power primarily.We must "do unto China what it is doing unto us".
First resolve the $50-60B trade deficit.Huge duties and sanctions on Chin products esp. white goods. This will spur industry at home to provide the same. We then will have at least half that amt. to use for mil. modernisation, dpl. aid whatever.

Secondly , to quote Mao about one's "enemy's enemy..."
Bolster mil aid and enter into def.agreements with China's mortal enemies in Asia.Vietnam and covert - for the moment mil.aid to Taiwan too.Indian missiles in Viet hands, perhaps the Philippines too.Indo- Viet nuclear cooperation mirroring Sino- Pak efforts, if you get my meaning! Establishment of Indian mil.bases and logistic agreements in the ICS.We must be pro- active in the ICS-Pacific just as the PLAN is doing in the IOR.This however requires a doubling of our sub fleet best discussed in other tds.

Thirdly, as a commentator wrote recently, our old NAM contacts must be renewed as during its heyday, we were the leader to whom a huge slice of humanity looked up to.
In recent times, post Cold War, we tried to cosy upto the US which has not resulted in any lessening of the threat from Pak- in fact it has dramatically increased with a jointness with China.India as said before, must be a magnet for smaller but important nations in the Afro-Asia-Pacific region to gravitate to, instead of China and getting ensnared in the debt trap that many are now ruing and some contemplating rejecting Chin aid for mega- projects leading to it.But this requires inspired not insipid diplomacy and a renewal of South Block's once renowned acumen and innovation during the era of Mrs.G.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby pankajs » 02 Apr 2018 07:55

What is the solution from someone who laments Indian "arrogance and insensitivity to its neighbours." It is to call neighbors "tadpoles", call for a Naval blockade on suspicion and taking the stick to all our neighbors.

One can only imagine how much such a mind is overwhelmed by fear. I don't expect someone so overwhelmed by fear to see the window of opportunity in-front of India.

Fear masquerading as analysis.

1. China has resolved it Malacca dilemma. This is simply laughable.
2. On the window of opportunity. Imagine if China had the same though process when it was surrounded by *actual* US bases not imagined ones. China choose not to be overwhelmed by fear, stay course on its economic development and is seeing the fruits of its labor now with it rapidly expanding military power even while all it did on Taiwan, etc for a very long time was fart.
3. Imagine China trying to "do unto China [US] what it is doing unto us [China]" some 15 years back! Where would China be economically today if it gave in to fear of being overwhelmed? China's political, diplomatic and military power all flow from its economic heft that is has acquired in the past 15 years. It could have scarified all of that by allowing fear to overwhelm it but it choose not to.

Fear is a good motivator, in fact the best motivator there is, but taken to the extreme it makes one highly irrational. If nothing one must learn from China and more specifically Deng's dictum for the Chinese leaders.

PS: Multiple edits for clarity.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Philip » 02 Apr 2018 13:31

Go back a decade in time.The Chinese had no footprint whatsoever in the IOR.In the short span of a decade,they've sold their subs to BDesh,starting a naval connection there,parked themselves in Gwadar,Hambantota,Djibouti and now the Maldives in the making.They also have their Burmese relationship and logistic availability for their warships and subs.In fact a Chinese sub for the first time made a port call in Malaysia.Who says that they've not "solved" the Malacca Dilemma? Their warships and subs are now a permanent presence in the IOR. They've found a solution,planted their flag at key strat points on the IOR map,and are in the process of reinforcing their logistic capabilities there so that they can support an even larger IOR fleet from 2020 onwards.

The stark fact is that our diplomacy has come a cropper and you are not willing to admit it.Even the Seychelles has just backed off over the leasing of an island to us for a naval base! Their oppn. leader who visited India earlier,seems to have some angst with us.Why?

As for the "tadpole",who has become a tyrant in the Maldives,international condemnation of his despotic rule is almost total.Only the Chinese and Pakis are supporting him.That speaks for itself. We have treated him with respect,come to his aid during a water crisis,and put up with his lying and treated him with kid gloves for far too long, a few years in fact and he has returned our concerns with insults.He does not deserve our respect whatsoever.If a wimp like him can show us the upturned finger,which nation will think us as a credible counter to China?

Who is advocating 'defeatism"? Not me. I've offered solutions.each country has to be dealt with in its own unique way,but the crass manner in which the GOI is going about it,the deteriorating security situation in our neighbourhood spells even more problems for us in the future. Ironically we have a former CoAS as Dy. FM! he's now on his way to Iraq to pick up the bodies of the Indian workers massacred by ISIS.What use his input has been in South Blacok is anyone's guess.Babudom appears to rule constant.

PS:From the angst of the current CoAS and other chiefs,who've been extremely dismayed at the miserly defence budget,leaving nothing for replacement and modernisation after salaries and pensions,is that we're woefully unprepared to do anything militarily-that is from the political side.I posted earlier a report about the IN being unhappy with its amphib capability which would affect any possible intervention in the Maldives.That (which legitimately requires quick attention and decision making) I find as an excuse,as during RG's time, we took barely 24 hrs. to react and intervene in the most dramatic fashion,squashing the attempted coup in such a short time and manner that drew huge admiration from the intl. community.

Similarly in SL,after the tsunami,we were there just 24 hrs. later with relief and within a month,restored the galle port to traffic which had been closed due to a number of wrecks clogging the port.The US arrived in SL a month later and found that there was nothing left for them to do! To me it is a lack of will rather than a lack of eqpt.,etc. to deal with a situ of the size of the Maldives! We have officially enough ammo,etc." to fight an intense 10 day war",according to our DM NS. "What after 10 days ? ", is being asked in many quarters,but that is in context of China and Pak?

Anyyway,you are welcome to your viewpoint,expressing the hope that in 15 yrs. time India would've resolved our neighbouring problems.However,I don't have your confidence well knowing the Chinese "soldier ant" strategy.

PS:I'm posting a piece by veteran Prasannan on how we (MEA) mishandled the SL situ decades ago with greatloss to India. I also have on first person authority how Romesh Bhandari effed up our policy in SL,throwing out Mrs. G's strategy in his vain quest to resolve the SL crisis,the Iran-Iraq war (he was abum-chum of Kashoggi and had an eye for a petty stone of which SL has in abundance-if you get my meaning! He was treated like visiting head of state by the GOSL of the time,and no cost was spared to make his visits a success...for Sri Lanka!) and get a Nobel for his efforts.Rajiv wa suckered by RB and the rest as they say is history.

https://www.theweek.in/columns/prasanna ... -bulb.html
With a Tiger, burning midnight bulbR Prasannan By R Prasannan April 08, 2018
One night in July 1987. The Indo-Sri Lanka accord, which Rajiv Gandhi hoped would end the Lankan civil war, was being hammered out. Rajiv was to fly to Colombo the next afternoon.

There was one hitch. The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam were not on board.

In a last-ditch bid, Rajiv summoned Tiger chief V. Prabhakaran, who had been been a ‘guest’ of R&AW in Samrat Hotel next door to the PM House, at 11pm. He tried sama, dana, bheda and threat of danda, but the Tiger would not budge. Finally, Rajiv gave up; the Tiger could burn bright in hell.

As Prabhakaran was being taken back to his rooms, he asked to see GP. The PMO went into a tizzy. GP had retired months ago, but Prabhakaran would hear none of that. If he was not allowed, he would sit in dharna in front of the PM’s house.

Finally, his ‘guardians’ drove Prabhakarn to GP’s home at 1am. The two talked for an hour, during which the Tiger explained why he could not accept the accord.

“What do you expect me to do?” GP asked.
“Sir, I want you to know about this, and also to understand that if later on some untoward events take place, you will not blame the LTTE.”

Early next morning, GP called the PM and advised caution. Rajiv consulted his new advisers again. They told him to go to Colombo; GP could go to hell.

As GP feared, the accord, allegedly drafted by the US, was doomed from letter A. At the guard of honour in Colombo, a naval rating hit Rajiv with his rifle butt. The accord was received with silence by Colombo’s diplomatic circles, save for a bravo from the US ambassador. Even before the ink on it had dried, the Indian Army, which was sent to keep peace between the Lankan troops and the rebels, was drawn into the bloodiest jungle war it had fought after Burma in World War II, and from which it would come back bleeding and limping. And, four years later, the Tigers would human-bomb Rajiv.

Many in Delhi’s policy-making circles still believe that Rajiv would not have blundered into the Lankan fiasco, had GP been advising him. But, in the karmic dogma of history, there is no ‘if only’.

Who was GP, whom the dreaded Tiger wanted to meet, and who could ring up the PM at 7am, and warn him against a decision that the PMO had taken in its wisdom?

He was G. Parthasarathi, a Ranji Trophy player, an Oxford graduate, a bar-at-law, a newspaper hack, a diplomat, a policy adviser, the founder-VC of JNU, head of Indian Council of Social Science Research (ICSSR), and much more. One of those extraordinary gentlemen who strode the corridors of the South Block during the Nehru-Indira years, their minds grappling with crises, and their hearts beating for India on the ‘left’ side of the body-politic.

The anecdote above is just one among the many recounted by old South Block hands in the just-launched book GP: 1912-1995, edited by his son Ashok Parthasarathi, a chip off the old block. (Ashok started life as a physicist, and ended up as Indira Gandhi’s science adviser.) Essentially a collection of panel discussion speeches, the book offers not one but several insiders’ views into the working of not only those minds, but also of the PMO during the Nehru-Indira days.

Having carried the Indian flag in Vietnam, Cambodia, China, the UN and elsewhere, GP was most adept at accord-making. He got Nehru to work out a deal with Sheikh Abdullah by which the latter was freed from prison and brought into politicking, and Jammu and Kashmir brought into the nation’s political mainstream.

GP’s greatest successes were the Indira Gandhi-Sheikh Abdullah Accord of 1975 which ended instability in J&K for 10 years, and the Mizo miracle of the early Rajiv era, which is working even today. He guided Indira Gandhi’s Lanka policy and Rajiv’s in the initial months, till a few upstarts came in and led Rajiv up the Jaffna jungle path.

prasannan@theweek.in

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby pankajs » 02 Apr 2018 15:19

Philip wrote:Go back a decade in time.The Chinese had no footprint whatsoever in the IOR.In the short span of a decade,they've sold their subs to BDesh,starting a naval connection there,parked themselves in Gwadar,Hambantota,Djibouti and now the Maldives in the making.They also have their Burmese relationship and logistic availability for their warships and subs.In fact a Chinese sub for the first time made a port call in Malaysia.Who says that they've not "solved" the Malacca Dilemma? Their warships and subs are now a permanent presence in the IOR. They've found a solution,planted their flag at key strat points on the IOR map,and are in the process of reinforcing their logistic capabilities there so that they can support an even larger IOR fleet from 2020 onwards.
Laughable to say the least.

India has agreement on logistic with US so that should in theory allow us to operate all over SCS wherever US has a base. And then there is Vietnam and other countries where our ships make regular visits. And what about Indonesia which has offered a port bang in the middle of Malacca Strait for development to India?

Does the above make India a South China Sea power? Hell no ... just as similar peacetime arrangements does not make China an IOR power. If making port call was enough India would be king of the South China sea. We all know it is not so. But fear can make you believe you anything.

And the irony ... someone who talks of Indian "arrogance and insensitivity to its neighbours." does not stop and think of his own "arrogance and insensitivity" when he claims Sri Lanka and Maldives as Chinese military bases in-spite of their repeated denials.

Let us be sensitive and believe our neighbors and keep Sri Lanka and Maldives out for the moment. Malacca dilemma will not be solved by having a few subs and ships in Gwadar or Djibouti as against an Indian base right at the mouth. India does not have to control the vast IOR to block Malacca and any fighting at the mouth will block Malacca by default. The only way to keep Malacca open is NOT to fight there. When in the strait a ship cannot take a detour 5 miles either side to avoid the fight. Is that too difficult to understand?

Added later: https://in.reuters.com/article/idINIndia-46652220100304
At its narrowest point in the Phillips Channel of the Singapore Strait, the Malacca Strait is only 1.7 miles (2.7 km) wide, creating a natural bottleneck, as well as potential for collisions, grounding, or oil spills.
This is the reason why Singapore is so important to both US and China. US has a major deployment at Singapore and why China dreamt of all kinds of projects to bypass Singapore.
Last edited by pankajs on 02 Apr 2018 16:33, edited 1 time in total.

Philip
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Philip » 02 Apr 2018 16:32

I think you've missed the point.Casual port visits, as we've been doing for drcades, plus a few little extra visits to Vietnam, etc.do not make for a permanent military presence in the ICS.China on the other hand have signed on and established in part genuine naval bases at Djibouti, Gwadar- Jiwani to come, which will be purely military with no commercial traffic for any snooping, at the port plus Karachi Paki facilities,.In H'tota,a 99yr totally Chinese port plus 15.000 acres of adjoining land purely for China! Have you seen the pics of the port, or been there? I have.From HT , you are in the middle of the Africa-Gulf SLOC to Asia and the Far East.Subs operating from HT can easily control the central IOR disrupting shipping in either direction.

In short, why I contend that they have "solved" the Malacca Dilemma, it because they have/ plan to have established a string of naval and air facilities for a "permanent " military presence in the IOR.Chinese warships and subs in the future need not return to home ports regularly as they will be " home ported" just as the US has established at DG, which is just one base in the IOR, the others in Gulf nations and Saudi A. These permanent assets will be used to protect their mercantile shipping transiting the IOR. You can use the analogy of Guam and Okinawa in the Pacific if you like.

Pak is extremely happy to see the Chins in Gwadar since they will they hope, prevent any Baluchi independence being the desire of the Baluchis supported by India.
You can argue about the narrowness of the MS but it is narrow for the IN and our merchanr shipping too as we are vastly outnumbered in the ICS by the PLAN.in fact we do not have a single naval asset permanently on station in the ICS!

We do not have the Chin ]equiv. in Vietnam or anywhere else in the ICS let alone the IOR! Agalega , belonging to Mauritius has made precious little progress.We do not have a " base" in Mauritius either. Though we have a defence advisor to their PM which suffices.This is what we should've obtained from Male but didn't.Neither did we press hard enough for the Indo- Lanka defence agreement which we should've done after helping them defeat the LTTE.As I said we ignored all the warning signs of the Chin arrival in SL, which appears to have happened almost overnight.
We'd hoped that Assumption island of the Seychelles would be our great naval/air base asset, but that's sunk like the Titanic after hitting the opposition iceberg!

In short, we have been outflanked and will now have to deal with a permanent PLAN presence in the IOR.Unless we establish the same in the ICS, it's going to be an uphill struggle for the IN.Removing or neutralising the Chin presence in SL and perhaps the Maldives too, now almost an impossibility.
Last edited by Philip on 02 Apr 2018 16:40, edited 1 time in total.

pankajs
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby pankajs » 02 Apr 2018 16:38

Again fear drives out all logic.

Djibouti, Gwadar to control access to Malacca while India is right at the mouth? And they will have to go around all of India to reach Malacca! Their Malacca dilemma is far from being solved. Permanent berthing and patrolling during peacetime won't make a difference.

They could be used to challenge the US for control of the strait of Hormuz but unless the US leaves the Persian gulf that too is not going to work.
Last edited by pankajs on 02 Apr 2018 16:47, edited 1 time in total.


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