Maldives Civil-Military Issues

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Philip
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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Philip » 02 Apr 2018 16:46

What about HT, BDesh and Burma? Forgotten about their logistic facilities there? As I said, it's about by-passing the need for transiting the MS, once you are permanently in the IOR! The PLAN is establishing an Indian Ocean navy which does not need to return to China after patrols.In any case its N-subs have unlimited endurance and now after their 3 month patrols can use any of their IOR ports for logistic replenishment.Barring regular maintenance to be done at an N-sub naval base.In time, it may provide the PN with N- sub facilities and use the same as Paki will.
Last edited by Philip on 02 Apr 2018 16:53, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby pankajs » 02 Apr 2018 16:51

pankajs wrote:And the irony ... someone who talks of Indian "arrogance and insensitivity to its neighbours." does not stop and think of his own "arrogance and insensitivity" when he claims Sri Lanka and Maldives as Chinese military bases in-spite of their repeated denials.

Be sensitive to our neighbors who have promised not to let their territories be used against us in war. Add Bangladesh and Burma to that list.

China still has the problem as stated in my last post. Malacca dilemma is far from being solved. In fact the Chinese Gmasti has pushed India to firm up its Andaman deployment.
pankajs wrote:Djibouti, Gwadar to control access to Malacca while India is right at the mouth? And they will have to go around all of India to reach Malacca! Their Malacca dilemma is far from being solved. Permanent berthing and patrolling during peacetime won't make a difference.

Added later: Saw the submarine part. Submarine against Andaman and Nicobar chain of Island?!! You want me to comment on the outcome of a fight between the two!

Now I will not make a direct comment but let me try indirectly. Per you, China getting a port/base at Maldives will prove catastrophic for India/Indian peninsular/Indian Subcontinent. If we accept that logic, what will be the impact of a port/base at Andaman island on a narrow waterway called the Malacca strait.

Let me try it another way. If a port/base at Maldives can turn Indian subcontinent into a mosquito then a port/base at Andaman should turn Malacca strait into a ink flow on paper.
Last edited by pankajs on 02 Apr 2018 17:05, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Philip » 02 Apr 2018 17:03

The ANC upgrading has lagged far behind the manner in which the PRC has virtually taken over the ICS.Heavily armed bases with airstrips for Chin LRMP and strike aircraft, quays for warships and infrastructure for the same have been completed.This too after extensive land reclamation.This is what is being planned for the Maldives.Just imagine something similar on the 16 islands the tadpole wants to sell to XI Gins.And here is the definitive part,"sell" not lease!

The 15000 acres of exclusive hinterland in SL will allow for pre- positioning of supplies and war material as the US is doing at DG.The Chins control the port,tried to raise the Chinese flag too until a Buddhist priest agitating against them threatened to tear it down! Now since they control the port,who knos what the containers sent from China to HT contain which will be in their exclusive 15000 acre SEZ. Plus, China also has the massive land reclamation in Colombo, now called Fin. City, adjoining its port, again belonging de-facto to China for 99 yrs! Imagine a situ if one day China forces a "Cuba" upon is in SL.Start basing, operating its N- subs, etc. and permanently basing SAMs and BMs too? Unless we have our equiv. of SL and a willing nation , enemy of China willing to allow us the same, how will we respond to a Lanka that has sold its soul to the PRC? If Rajapakse returns this may very well happen.

PS: We have excellent plans drawn up for beefing up the ANC, Lakshadweep, etc., but have not followed up with concerted effort like the Chins.Himalayan border infra. for dxample.Only 25% completed but the budget spent.Main reason, lack of heavy road-blg. eqpt.We have only 3 MI-26s operational now I think which can carry such huge loads to high alt.Chinooks also yet to arrive.We could've at least leased out some until new ones arrive.Until the GOI like Putin places India's strategic and security interests and requirements at the top of the national agenda and bear all the other disciplines to support it, the going will be v.tough indeed.

PS:I understand your point of view that the MS is not a "given' since its so narrow,the other chokepoints ,etc. But the situ has dramatically changed.Earlier we were the major mil/naval power in the IOR along with the US at DG. We now have the budding N-superpower,our mortal enemy literally "at the gates",at several points in the IOR,planning a permanent settlement/s ,part of the neo-Imperial China.Unless the political dimension is resolved in these countries,where India's legitimate security interests are threatened and "enshrined",in our bi-lateral relations through agreements,it is going to be a walk-over for the Chin emperor.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby pankajs » 02 Apr 2018 20:02

Assuming bases in Maldives, Sri Lanka, etc. I don't believe Maldives or Sri Lanka will ever allow itself to be used as a staging area for an attack on India. Unless India it totally wiped out they would surely know that they will get wiped out in the fight between giants. Playing a bit fast and loose to needle India is par for the course.

1. Maldives, say 1000 acres, will be able to threaten and control 3.287 million km² India while 3.287 million km² India would not be able to threaten and destroy a 1000 acre reclaimed area? Fear overwhelming logic.
2. Sri Lanka's 15K acre hinterland will be able to dominate 3.287 million km² hinterland and not the reverse? Fear overwhelming logic.
3. Same goes for Colombo. And if it were to happen not just the reclaimed area but Colombo proper would get it from us.

One must understand that warships, even Carrier led flotillas are no match for the unsinkable and properly equipped Andaman. A 1000 missile volley from such a flotilla will not be able to sink Andamans where as a couple of Brahmos landing on most warships will be the end of it. China stand no chance of a fight over Malacca no matter what it throws in IF we are prepared.

During peacetime no one is going to get into a fight with the Chinese warships in international waters while during wartime all such warships and logistics base are legitimate targets. Sukhoi + Bramhos provides us with an umbrella of about 2000 km around our coast and that covers All of Sri Lanka and Maldives reaching up to Diego Garcia. Plus all our missiles.

We should worry and work with the assumption that the Chinese are going to push harder and harder into the IOR but not let fear hijack our faculties. Fear is a good motivator but let us not allow it to overwhelm us.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Philip » 03 Apr 2018 03:17

There is no fear.Right now the IOR infra is in its initial stages.The political dimension has been resolved.As usual the Chins operate both by stealth and swift overt execution.

I've said many a time that we have " INS India " and the ANC, unsinkable carrriers.However, the ability of China to operate a large independent IOR fleet will they expect, check our responses in a spat in the Asia-Pacific that may involve the US. The no.1 priority for China is recovering Taiwan.Taiwan independent and a US ally contains China milititarily too within the first island chain.Once recovered, the open Pacific Ocean to the east is for them to expand further.

The attitude of India which they hoped would be neutral has alarmed them with our involvement in the so-called Quad.Here we are as usual hedging our bets .We are neither at this moment a US mil. ally nor appearing neutral, but willing to assist if such a spat happens to a degree that is probably classified.Hence China's accelerated IOR strategy.It is still resorting to its classic war game of Wei Chi, territorial capture by encirclement.
Once it is strong enough in the IOR and India encircled, our joining the spat against it becomes less likely.Neutralisation of India through encirclement is its current strategy.

Therefore, our strategy as spelt out earlier is to also have a forward presence in the ICS.There are 3 principal nations.Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines, all affected by China's land grab in the ICS.Each holds opportunities for us.Vietnam obvious as they were invaded by China, but gave them a bloody lesson.How far the Viets will go in allowing us true base facilities is the Q, but their 6 Kilo subs acquired is a thorn in the flesh to the PLAN.We are supposedly assisting them officially in trg. but there is little open info on the same.An ex-submariner was recd. on a pvt. visit by them with open arms , was shown their boat, cleared many Qs asked about operatinv their Kilos, etc. and invited to assist them at any time.India further assisting it militarily with BMos, Prahar, Prithvi- whatever, will anger the Chins but look at what they're doing in Pak?!

Indonesia holds great promise.Previously it was a pal of Pak, but Islamic terror supplied worldwide by them isn't their cup of chai.Relations militaire are supposedly growing.After the collapse of the USSR, the Indo navy at one time wanted us to maintain their entire Sov. era fleet!
Great opportunity missed.That was during the "lost decade" of the IN if I'm not mistaken, when INS Andamans foundered.

The Philippines.A new opportunity.We never appeared to make any overtures to it in the past, esp. during the Cold War when Marcos was a key US ally.Strategically, it is a key player in the Asia-Pacific with so many islands and narrow straits which were the locations of somd of the most fierce naval battles in WW2.From the VOC days the Dutch and British fought fierce naval battles for domination of the region.Since it is one of the most badly affected of the ICS littoral nations in the Chin takeaway, we are very welcome.However, how far both sides are willing to go is as yet jnresolved.We lost out on the frigate
tender to SoKo when it appeared that it was in the bag.A pity but more opportunities will come.

This is how we must leveraging these 3 ICS littoral nations turn the tables onto China using Wei Chi! We also havd an agreement with SPore, very valuable as part of the supporting cast. The more China admonishes us about exacerbating matters in the mountains, the more pro- active should we be in the ICS, not neglecting matters in our own backyard though!

A pity we are v.reluctant to use both " T" cards.India providing mil. help to Taiwan would be our counter to their assistance and support to Pak. esp the Chin bases at Gwadar and Jiwani .If we are bold enough, we could do the same in Taiwan.That requires another td.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby pankajs » 03 Apr 2018 11:23

Philip wrote:I've said many a time that we have " INS India " and the ANC, unsinkable carrriers.However, the ability of China to operate a large independent IOR fleet will they expect, check our responses in a spat in the Asia-Pacific that may involve the US. The no.1 priority for China is recovering Taiwan.Taiwan independent and a US ally contains China milititarily too within the first island chain.Once recovered, the open Pacific Ocean to the east is for them to expand further.

We are not expected to take part "in a spat in the Asia-Pacific that may involve the US". We are expected to be able to manage IOR while that spat plays out so that US can focus on the SCS spat. The moment you ask the wrong question you will come to the wrong conclusion .. something like "China deterred India from Asia-Pacific". Do not make such rookie mistake.

On Taiwan it is better that we stay out because if US cannot manage that then we certainly cannot. Way better for India to assist US by freeing it up in the IOR region including in the Persian Gulf. It will be our contribution to that fight and believe me US will appreciate it very much.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Philip » 03 Apr 2018 16:37

Exactly! You are echoing my thesis that we stay out of active Quad involvement but establish bilateral agreements, India- centric. But before looking further afar the neighbourhood has to be resolved with some pro- active meaningful diplomacy.
There was a report today quoting a Lankan politico wanting to trash the on-going (endless) talks on the Indo- Lanka trade agreement.
We have as said before denied any facility now in the Seychelles, a huge setback.What is the MEA now going to redress the IOR situ?

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Trikaal » 03 Apr 2018 19:23

pankajs wrote:Assuming bases in Maldives, Sri Lanka, etc. I don't believe Maldives or Sri Lanka will ever allow itself to be used as a staging area for an attack on India. Unless India it totally wiped out they would surely know that they will get wiped out in the fight between giants. Playing a bit fast and loose to needle India is par for the course.

1. Maldives, say 1000 acres, will be able to threaten and control 3.287 million km² India while 3.287 million km² India would not be able to threaten and destroy a 1000 acre reclaimed area? Fear overwhelming logic.
2. Sri Lanka's 15K acre hinterland will be able to dominate 3.287 million km² hinterland and not the reverse? Fear overwhelming logic.
3. Same goes for Colombo. And if it were to happen not just the reclaimed area but Colombo proper would get it from us.

One must understand that warships, even Carrier led flotillas are no match for the unsinkable and properly equipped Andaman. A 1000 missile volley from such a flotilla will not be able to sink Andamans where as a couple of Brahmos landing on most warships will be the end of it. China stand no chance of a fight over Malacca no matter what it throws in IF we are prepared.

During peacetime no one is going to get into a fight with the Chinese warships in international waters while during wartime all such warships and logistics base are legitimate targets. Sukhoi + Bramhos provides us with an umbrella of about 2000 km around our coast and that covers All of Sri Lanka and Maldives reaching up to Diego Garcia. Plus all our missiles.

We should worry and work with the assumption that the Chinese are going to push harder and harder into the IOR but not let fear hijack our faculties. Fear is a good motivator but let us not allow it to overwhelm us.


First, you are assuming these countries to show the level of maturity they haven't so far. We have seen how a few bucks under the table are enough to turn both Maldives and Sri Lankan govt against India, a country that has helped and protected them since Independence.

Secondly, you are not understanding the threat a base in these countries can provide. Individually, no base in any country can threaten India. The difficulty arises when these bases complicate the security calculations in times of wars. If china declares a war in North with Pakistan today, India has to fight on 2 fronts which is difficult but manageable. What if there are multiple bases towards the south tomorrow? How much of the security infrastructure would then need to be diverted south to guard against an attack from them? How many IAF squadrons do we send down south in that case? All this will complicate and weaken the country if it has to fight on 3-4 fronts. That is the eventuality I want India to avoid by not allowing bases to spring up like rash all over the IOR. Taking or discussing preventive action does not equal fear.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby pankajs » 03 Apr 2018 20:19

Nothing wrong in having doubts.

1. Navy + Coast guard is there to guard your southern flank while the Army is up north fighting.
2. I believe for Colombo Brahmos battery on the India coast should be enough.
3. Not just India but China/Bakistan have to divert men and material to fight you in the south.
4. How difficult is it to map 15,000 acres in Sri Lanka and neutralize any high valued target in such a small area? Google tells me 15K acres is about 60 Sq KM i.e think of a plot of about 10 km x 6 km.
5. Notice where Sri Lanka and Maldives are when compared to the nearest Baki/Chinese land mass. How far and who sits in between?

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby ArjunPandit » 04 Apr 2018 00:53

^^Trikaal, if fighting on 3/4 fronts is difficult for, how is it easy for them orchestrating things even farther than japanese and british conducted during WW2. The sqdns dedicated should be available with IN

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Trikaal » 04 Apr 2018 02:31

Well first, because China will have Pakistan's help and equipment at its disposal and second, china currently has us outmanned, outgunned and outshipped. It's easier for them to spare resources to open another front than for us.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby ArjunPandit » 04 Apr 2018 09:05

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 603420.cms
Seems like Maldives is begging for us to be whipped. India should send a huge bill and then try to take some atoll in lieu of that ;-)

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby shiv » 04 Apr 2018 10:08

Trikaal wrote:What if there are multiple bases towards the south tomorrow?

What is the meaning of "base"?

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Pulikeshi » 04 Apr 2018 10:15

ArjunPandit wrote:https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/male-snubs-delhi-again-returns-gift/articleshow/63603420.cms
Seems like Maldives is begging for us to be whipped. India should send a huge bill and then try to take some atoll in lieu of that ;-)


Why when one can ‘wait and watch weekly’ onlee? :mrgreen:

An Indian Navy Dornier maritime reconnaissance aircraft and a warship alternatively also make a weekly sortie to the Maldives to patrol its exclusive economic zone under a long-standing bilateral agreement.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Trikaal » 04 Apr 2018 11:27

shiv wrote:
Trikaal wrote:What if there are multiple bases towards the south tomorrow?

What is the meaning of "base"?


A military base is a facility directly owned and operated by or for the military or one of its branches that shelters military equipment and personnel, and facilitates training and operations. A military base provides accommodations for one or more units, but it may also be used as a command center, training ground or proving ground.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby shiv » 04 Apr 2018 11:30

Trikaal wrote:
shiv wrote:What is the meaning of "base"?


A military base is a facility directly owned and operated by or for the military or one of its branches that shelters military equipment and personnel, and facilitates training and operations. A military base provides accommodations for one or more units, but it may also be used as a command center, training ground or proving ground.

How would the Chinese provide logistics for Indian ocean bases?

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Trikaal » 04 Apr 2018 11:48

First, they would be pre stacked with men and equipment. Secondly, navy.

Not saying that these bases will be enough to launch full scale invasions but they will be nuisance enough that we will need to divert much needed equipment from up north.

I think I know what the next question will be but I will wait for you to ask.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby shiv » 04 Apr 2018 11:55

Trikaal wrote:First, they would be pre stacked with men and equipment. Secondly, navy.

Not saying that these bases will be enough to launch full scale invasions but they will be nuisance enough that we will need to divert much needed equipment from up north.

I think I know what the next question will be but I will wait for you to ask.

What equipment would we have to move from the North? Tanks? I don't think you mean tanks, but let me ask you this, where do you think the Chinese will set up such a base? Or if you believe they will set up more than one base please list the places.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Trikaal » 04 Apr 2018 12:00

By equipment i mostly mean aircrafts, missile launchers and ships.

Bases- pakistan
Maldives
Srilanka
Bangladesh
Myanmar
Djibouti
Malaysia/indonesia (so far there has been no movement but this could happen to guard the straits)

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby pankajs » 04 Apr 2018 12:09

Nitin A. Gokhale Verified account @nitingokhale

Amazed at some of our renowned FP and strategic experts catching cold every time someone sneezes in Maldives. The assumption is: New Delhi is sleeping. Even if it is, let’s not forget geography is still a factor no matter how much Yameen snuggles up to Yellow and Green.
Nitin A. Gokhale Verified account @nitingokhale

Wondering if Pakistan is going to borrow Chinese ships to carry out joint patrolling with Maldives since Pak Navy has just four major ships which have rarely ventured out of North Arabian Sea. And what will Maldives field for joint patrolling of its EEZ? Still scratching my head

Our folks have grown so sensitive that they do not stop to think. All Maldives has to do is to throw a line a day/week/month and our experts will keep dancing.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Chandragupta » 04 Apr 2018 12:12

Trikaal wrote:By equipment i mostly mean aircrafts, missile launchers and ships.

Bases- pakistan
Maldives
Srilanka
Bangladesh
Myanmar
Djibouti
Malaysia/indonesia (so far there has been no movement but this could happen to guard the straits)


Pakistan is de-facto Chinese territory but I can't think of a reason why Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Malaysia & Indonesia will agree to host Chinese military personnel & equipment which will be clearly anti-India. Even if they host them, will they allow them to operate during war time and paint a big red target on their own forehead? I mean, yes India is a sleeping elephant, a bumbling giant but we are still one of the top 5 military powers in the world. Why would they want to be in the middle of a fight between the Elephant & the Dragon? Imo, they will shut doors, windows, hide behind their walls and watch in awe if it ever came to that.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Trikaal » 04 Apr 2018 12:22

Chandragupta wrote:Pakistan is de-facto Chinese territory but I can't think of a reason why Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Malaysia & Indonesia will agree to host Chinese military personnel & equipment which will be clearly anti-India. Even if they host them, will they allow them to operate during war time and paint a big red target on their own forehead? I mean, yes India is a sleeping elephant, a bumbling giant but we are still one of the top 5 military powers in the world. Why would they want to be in the middle of a fight between the Elephant & the Dragon? Imo, they will shut doors, windows, hide behind their walls and watch in awe if it ever came to that.


Honestly, i don't trust any of these countries. If they can repay decades of friendship, help and support with hurting indian interests and prostrating themselves in front of chinese for a few yuans then i wont claim to know what they'll do in war. Remember, one of these countries was literally built on the blood shed by our soldiers. Do u remember how deep our relations with that country was from 1980's upto very recently? Again, we shed blood to save another of these countries from a civil war. Yet another one of these was saved when somali pirates threatened to take over it. If they can forget all this, i don't grust their judgement for anything. Besides, it is better to bleed in practice. The main point of my argument, as I have stressed before, is why let these bases come up in the first place?

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Chandragupta » 04 Apr 2018 12:28

Trikaal wrote:
Chandragupta wrote:Pakistan is de-facto Chinese territory but I can't think of a reason why Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Malaysia & Indonesia will agree to host Chinese military personnel & equipment which will be clearly anti-India. Even if they host them, will they allow them to operate during war time and paint a big red target on their own forehead? I mean, yes India is a sleeping elephant, a bumbling giant but we are still one of the top 5 military powers in the world. Why would they want to be in the middle of a fight between the Elephant & the Dragon? Imo, they will shut doors, windows, hide behind their walls and watch in awe if it ever came to that.


Honestly, i don't trust any of these countries. If they can repay decades of friendship, help and support with hurting indian interests and prostrating themselves in front of chinese for a few yuans then i wont claim to know what they'll do in war. Remember, one of these countries was literally built on the blood shed by our soldiers. Do u remember how deep our relations with that country was from 1980's upto very recently? Again, we shed blood to save another of these countries from a civil war. Yet another one of these was saved when somali pirates threatened to take over it. If they can forget all this, i don't grust their judgement for anything. Besides, it is better to bleed in practice. The main point of my argument, as I have stressed before, is why let these bases come up in the first place?


They are ungrateful SOBs yes, but are they also suicidal? Imagine being the PM of BD or SL. You agreed to have a Chinese military base in your country 5 years ago to spite the lowly Yindoos. Now, things are heating up between India & China. Chinese have already started mobilizing and informed you that they will be sending offensive equipment with troops to the base, obviously to attack India. The Indians have told you in no uncertain terms that we won't ask you to fight on our side but be prepared to be annihilated if you allow even a single Chinese attack to be staged from your territory. What do you do? The mammoth with a devastating military is sitting right on your head, make no mistakes about it, the Hindus will reduce you to rubble if you let the Chinese use your territory, what do you do? It is a no brainer, be neutral, tell the Chinese - no coming near us, no sending equipment, no troops, appeal to the US/UN to end hostilities and issue a statement urging peace between the two Asian giants.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby shiv » 04 Apr 2018 12:51

Trikaal wrote:By equipment i mostly mean aircrafts, missile launchers and ships.

Bases- pakistan
Maldives
Srilanka
Bangladesh
Myanmar
Djibouti
Malaysia/indonesia (so far there has been no movement but this could happen to guard the straits)


There are no new names on the list. They already have a base in Djibouti with a US base on one side and a Japanese base on the otherside. maybe an Indian one will also come up. I have read these names for years and years. What has stopped the Chinese from building bases in these nations?

You see - when I make predictions and say "This can happen in the future" - I find it easiest to point out that the Chinese can nuke the crap out of us. So do you believe that they have not built bases because they are reserving nukes for us? If they are then they don't need bases. but if they are not going to kick the crap out of us they need the bases. What is taking them so long? What is the exact problem? This base business is getting less and less convincing and more and more boring (to me) but since you seem to have a view let me ask.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Trikaal » 04 Apr 2018 13:06

I seriously don't know what you are talking about? These bases are already coming up. How are you arriving at the conclusion that chinese aren't building these bases? Hiding your face in the sand doesn't change ground realities.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby shiv » 04 Apr 2018 13:49

Trikaal wrote:I seriously don't know what you are talking about? These bases are already coming up. How are you arriving at the conclusion that chinese aren't building these bases? Hiding your face in the sand doesn't change ground realities.

Ok I'm an idiot but please watch this video made by me a few weeks ago and tell me where the bases are. Prove that I'm a stupid ostrich who does not know what the hell I am blabbering about
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UPWq32DP7u8

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Rayar » 04 Apr 2018 14:22

Chandragupta wrote:
Trikaal wrote:
They are ungrateful SOBs yes, but are they also suicidal? Imagine being the PM of BD or SL. You agreed to have a Chinese military base in your country 5 years ago to spite the lowly Yindoos. Now, things are heating up between India & China. Chinese have already started mobilizing and informed you that they will be sending offensive equipment with troops to the base, obviously to attack India. The Indians have told you in no uncertain terms that we won't ask you to fight on our side but be prepared to be annihilated if you allow even a single Chinese attack to be staged from your territory. What do you do? The mammoth with a devastating military is sitting right on your head, make no mistakes about it, the Hindus will reduce you to rubble if you let the Chinese use your territory, what do you do? It is a no brainer, be neutral, tell the Chinese - no coming near us, no sending equipment, no troops, appeal to the US/UN to end hostilities and issue a statement urging peace between the two Asian giants.


What if Chinese refuse to heed the host nation plea to not to use their territory against us?
Newbie thinking: Most likely the dharmic nation will understand those host nation plight and divert scarce resources to tackle those bases, and therby tie up our strike resources inside IOR for a limited period, may be we lose/weaken some of our strike capability thereby saving their prime target in mainland.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Philip » 04 Apr 2018 14:23

There is a fact which may not be well known,but many of the so-called "tourists" of chin origin,in these countries are actually military,intel and establishment personnel in mufti.They are all young and are doing a recce of the country which they will operate from later on,while masquerading as Chinese workers,technicians in their industries and businesses set up in SL, the Maldives,etc.The Maldives has the highest rates of resorts worldwide.Yet the Chins constitute 20% of their tourism! When the sh*t hit the fan within 10 days the country was filled mainly with Chinese. This may have been the deciding factor that has stayed India's hand of intervention,something that the GOI will never (publicly) admit too.

Now,returning our gifts,I suggest that instead of a Dornier that the tadpole wants,we send him several C-17s and IL-76s filled with Indian "tourists",well equipped for the tropical climate,as well as several warships and a carrier too to give him and his cronies free joy rides ! We however have to be xtremely creful of one powerful naval asset that the Maldives posseses,a submarine.I've been aboard it!
Perhaps the Chins and Pakis have promised him their gifts,claiming superiority to ours.Let's "wait and watch",MEA style!

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Trikaal » 04 Apr 2018 15:53

shiv wrote:
Ok I'm an idiot but please watch this video made by me a few weeks ago and tell me where the bases are. Prove that I'm a stupid ostrich who does not know what the hell I am blabbering about
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UPWq32DP7u8

Many facts are reported wrong in the video. Example- GMR pulled out of Male airport. It didn't, the govt cancelled the contract and there was a protracted legal battle fought in multiple courts.
The main premise of the video is you showing some google earth images to say that since no progress has happened until now, that means no progress will happen in the future either. I seriously have no words to counter that line of thinking. You assume that the status quo will stay for some reason, what that reason is you don't specify. You say the oil terminal in myanmar wont work in war time since india will 'shut it down' without thinking that shutting down an oil terminal in a third country is an act of war against such country and that it will bring myanmar on the side of china into the war. Congrats! Just because you are so adamant on not doing anything during peacetime and following 'wait and watch approach', you made the war a 1 on 3 instead of 1 on 2 and all that to close an oil terminal.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Chandragupta » 04 Apr 2018 15:57

Rayar wrote:
Chandragupta wrote:


What if Chinese refuse to heed the host nation plea to not to use their territory against us?
Newbie thinking: Most likely the dharmic nation will understand those host nation plight and divert scarce resources to tackle those bases, and therby tie up our strike resources inside IOR for a limited period, may be we lose/weaken some of our strike capability thereby saving their prime target in mainland.


What will you do in that case as the PM of SL/BD? India warns you of disproportionate action if the Chinese use your territory and China says I'll use my base any which way. If it were me, I'd tell the Chinese that if they persist, I'll be forced to inform the Indians of their movements and call the Indians to clarify that the Chinese are threatening us to use our territory, we are neutral onlee, here are their plans, please dont fvck us.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby pankajs » 04 Apr 2018 16:07

Chandragupta wrote:
Rayar wrote:
What if Chinese refuse to heed the host nation plea to not to use their territory against us?
Newbie thinking: Most likely the dharmic nation will understand those host nation plight and divert scarce resources to tackle those bases, and therby tie up our strike resources inside IOR for a limited period, may be we lose/weaken some of our strike capability thereby saving their prime target in mainland.


What will you do in that case as the PM of SL/BD? India warns you of disproportionate action if the Chinese use your territory and China says I'll use my base any which way. If it were me, I'd tell the Chinese that if they persist, I'll be forced to inform the Indians of their movements and call the Indians to clarify that the Chinese are threatening us to use our territory, we are neutral onlee, here are their plans, please dont fvck us.

Just think for a moment where is China compared to India when it comes to Sri Lanka? If Sri Lanka decided to deny China any foothold and calls upon India to defend its 100virginity what can China do except look in from a distance?

Worry not on count of diversion of resources? Indian Navy's job iz to secure IOR with its men and material for which it is sufficiently provided. When it ring-fences Sri Lanka it will not be doing anything extra.

What is this bit about "tie up our strike resources inside IOR"? I don't think Indian Navy is supposed to carry its firepower to Chinese eastern seaboard. I may be wrong but I haven't hear of it till date.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby nam » 04 Apr 2018 18:16

So the Pakis are going to patrol Maldives water. Brilliant. Hope they do it permanently

When the balloon goes up, the unlucky Caption's last word will be "Ya Allah, why me", as it will be first ship to taken out by IN.

Far from home, no air cover nothing.. :rotfl:

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby nam » 04 Apr 2018 18:31

On the topic of bases, taking the reference from WW2.

None of the British or American naval bases Philipines, Signapore etc survived Japanese attacks.

So if Chinese bases in IOR as been used as part of attack against India, the nation hosting will be a legitimate target for Indian counter attack. If the host publicly declares it does not support Chinese attack, then they will pull back their citizen from these bases and implicitly give us permission to target Chinese bases in their country.
Last edited by nam on 04 Apr 2018 18:45, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby shiv » 04 Apr 2018 18:32

Trikaal wrote: I seriously have no words to counter that line of thinking.

Naturally. When you decide to scare the shirt off yourself you cannot think outside your box.

Trikaal wrote:
You assume that the status quo will stay for some reason, what that reason is you don't specify.

Nonsense.

Trikaal wrote: You say the oil terminal in myanmar wont work in war time since india will 'shut it down' without thinking that shutting down an oil terminal in a third country is an act of war against such country and that it will bring myanmar on the side of china into the war.Congrats! Just because you are so adamant on not doing anything during peacetime and following 'wait and watch approach', you made the war a 1 on 3 instead of 1 on 2 and all that to close an oil terminal.


Hahahaha! Surely you are joking Mr Feynman!! :D

Did you imagine that war is a boxing match in which 2 contestants stand in a ring and no one else is involved? We will have to blast the ports in Myanmar , Sri Lanka etc. Do you think the Myanmarese and Lankans are as stupid as some of the comments I see on BRF? Those nations know that their asses will get whupped by India if they allow Chinese military ports. THAT is partly why the Chinese have not built any military ports yet.

But there is one more reason - India is in a position to make life miserable for these small nations but is friendly by choice. Did you think that India is licking their backsides like a dog in heat. No. Those nations know damn well that they are allowed to trade with China - but no military bases. Their ships will stop moving in Indian waters and the ocean if they start gaandmasti.

What I dislike about your state of permanent and incurable fear is the attitude that India is doing nothing and will do nothing. If you did not listen to what our navy chief said in an interview - it is your loss. But don't expect me to stand by and stay silent while you let out a series of loud laments about your fears.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby ArjunPandit » 04 Apr 2018 19:41

The point I dont want to berate trikaal's line of thinking is that because it is what most of "indian intellectual's" line of thinking. I have met dozens of such people who found it hard to believe that geography has any role to play if china wishes to steamroll india. This think as rohit vats calls it 7 feet china man syndrome and my way of saying "china aaya" like "bhediya aaya" which has been used (or rather abused) by almost everyone

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Trikaal » 04 Apr 2018 19:50

shiv wrote:Naturally. When you decide to scare the shirt off yourself you cannot think outside your box.


What I dislike about your state of permanent and incurable fear is the attitude that India is doing nothing and will do nothing. If you did not listen to what our navy chief said in an interview - it is your loss. But don't expect me to stand by and stay silent while you let out a series of loud laments about your fears.


It's funny how you twist my advocacy for pre-emptive action as fear. If taking pre-emptive steps to deny your opponent an advantage is called fear in your dictionary, then yes, I am losing both my shirt and my pants in fear.
Wrt Maldives, India is NOT doing anything. If you disagree, what are your counter-points? Except patrolling and expressing disappointment, what concrete action have we taken? Every day Yameen does, as you like to call it, 'gaandmasti' yet there is no response from us. I want this to stop. I want India to put boots on ground to kick his ass into submission rather than let him willingly prostrate himself in front of Chinese and become their puppy. If this is fear, yes I am afraid.

shiv wrote:Hahahaha! Surely you are joking Mr Feynman!! :D

Did you imagine that war is a boxing match in which 2 contestants stand in a ring and no one else is involved? We will have to blast the ports in Myanmar , Sri Lanka etc. Do you think the Myanmarese and Lankans are as stupid as some of the comments I see on BRF? Those nations know that their asses will get whupped by India if they allow Chinese military ports. THAT is partly why the Chinese have not built any military ports yet.

But there is one more reason - India is in a position to make life miserable for these small nations but is friendly by choice. Did you think that India is licking their backsides like a dog in heat. No. Those nations know damn well that they are allowed to trade with China - but no military bases. Their ships will stop moving in Indian waters and the ocean if they start gaandmasti.


Are Lankans and Myanmarese stupid? I don't know. Why don't you ask the Lankans how they found themselves in a position where they have to cede territory for 99 years? Was that a sign of exceptional intellect? What kind of moron does one have to be to take a commercial loan for making a NPA? The truth is that it was the briefcases being passed underneath the table that blinded them to such eventualities. What evidence leads you to the conclusion that a few million yuans won't convince these super smart rulers to oppose India in the event of a war.
When two giants fight, smaller insects can sense weakness and try to cash in on the opportunity. During world war 2, finland fought against soviets on the side of Germans. Then, when the balance of power had shifted again, they fought against germany on the side of allies. Finland of 1940's wasn't a major military power. Did they suffer loses because of attacks from two of the super powers of those times? Sure they did, but that didn't stop them. History is littered with such examples, where insignificant powers take part in the fight of giants for a small cut in the eventual prize. I don't see War as a boxing match but you sure seem to think of it as a video game.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Trikaal » 04 Apr 2018 19:54

ArjunPandit wrote:The point I dont want to berate trikaal's line of thinking is that because it is what most of "indian intellectual's" line of thinking. I have met dozens of such people who found it hard to believe that geography has any role to play if china wishes to steamroll india. This think as rohit vats calls it 7 feet china man syndrome and my way of saying "china aaya" like "bhediya aaya" which has been used (or rather abused) by almost everyone


OMG, are you even reading my posts? I am asking for strategic pre-emptive action to deny our enemy space. But somehow you are linking it to fear and geography question. Sure we have geography advantage, so what do we do? Sit on our asses? Remember the story of three fishes?

Is it so wrong to take action against the chinese stooges? Do we have to wait for an eventual war with china to sort them out? For once, why can't we be proactive rather than reactive. Why is it so hard to accept that a war has multiple variables and a smart nation does everything it can during peacetime to control as many of these variables as it can.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby shiv » 04 Apr 2018 20:56

Trikaal wrote:
It's funny how you twist my advocacy for pre-emptive action as fear. If taking pre-emptive steps to deny your opponent an advantage is called fear in your dictionary, then yes, I am losing both my shirt and my pants in fear.
Absolutely true.

Trikaal wrote: want India to put boots on ground to kick his ass into submission rather than let him willingly prostrate himself in front of Chinese and become their puppy. If this is fear, yes I am afraid
Yaaaaawn. I have said all that I wanted earlier. Not my problem if you did not read it. Maldives is full of elite criminals. Why should we remove one only to get one more idiot in power. They should mange their affairs. You said something earlier that makes me laugh. You said "We would have to shift forces from the North". I believe you don't have the smallest and slightest clue of the forces that we would have to put simply to control the Maldives and put another fool in power. What you are saying is an overassessment of Indian power to control the Maldives. Name one suitable person who can hold power. No point wasting forces there. Wake me up when China starts building a submarine base. Let me watch them control the Maldives and have chai-biskoot while they do.


Trikaal wrote:Are Lankans and Myanmarese stupid? I don't know.

I do. They are not

Trikaal wrote:Why don't you ask the Lankans how they found themselves in a position where they have to cede territory for 99 years? Was that a sign of exceptional intellect? What kind of moron does one have to be to take a commercial loan for making a NPA? The truth is that it was the briefcases being passed underneath the table that blinded them to such eventualities. What evidence leads you to the conclusion that a few million yuans won't convince these super smart rulers to oppose India in the event of a war.
What evidence leads you the conclusion that India will not blast out Sri Lankan bases in case of war. Sri Lanka has promised not to allow military activities in Hambantota. What makes you think they are lying? Betwen Indian gun and Chinese money - Indian gun will speak louder.


Trikaal wrote: When two giants fight, smaller insects can sense weakness and try to cash in on the opportunity. During world war 2, finland fought against soviets on the side of Germans. Then, when the balance of power had shifted again, they fought against germany on the side of allies. Finland of 1940's wasn't a major military power. Did they suffer loses because of attacks from two of the super powers of those times? Sure they did, but that didn't stop them. History is littered with such examples, where insignificant powers take part in the fight of giants for a small cut in the eventual prize. I don't see War as a boxing match but you sure seem to think of it as a video game.

We will shift the balance of power in 2 days if war starts. Won't let it last as long as Finland.

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby ArjunPandit » 04 Apr 2018 22:42

Trikaal wrote:Is it so wrong to take action against the chinese stooges? Do we have to wait for an eventual war with china to sort them out? For once, why can't we be proactive rather than reactive. Why is it so hard to accept that a war has multiple variables and a smart nation does everything it can during peacetime to control as many of these variables as it can.

Last one from me on this: How are you so sure that we are not doing anything, and we or India as a nation dont understand war has "multiple variables"

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Re: Maldives Civil-Military Issues

Postby Anant » 05 Apr 2018 20:58



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