Overall, how does NoKo's nuke program affect India's strategic interest?

[Rudradev]

Please pick ONE option and explain your reasoning. Re-voting is allowed.

[shiv]

Voted neutral. But not just for the reasons stated - but I disagree with the other two options provided.

If we must test we must not fire off NoKo's shoulder. Our testing is in our self interest and I am not convinced that testing because NoKo did will contribute to our self interest. The reasons are a combination of option 2 and 3. Testing has positives that will appeal to those who want tests to be done. But if India (the first nation to go nuclear after the self declared "P5") tests off NoKos shoulder a whole lot of states will also opt to test off India's shoulder. I do not think every state should have it easy to test because sooner or later the capability will move on to criminal groups and a nuclear bomb will be used.

I have a counter argument to my own argument above. One part of my mind tells me "Hey what the heck. Let everybody have nukes. Why should just a closed club be allowed to have nukes. Let everyone test. and refine their nuclear arsenals". Hilariously this is a "liberal" argument gone wrong.

But in the final analysis my own (deeply personal) view is that I object to the wild proliferation of nuclear weapons on moral grounds. It's similar to my objection to Ajay Shukla's Tweet yesterday saying that "Yasin Malik should be admired for standing up to the Indian army". A corollary to this argument would be "Let Yasin Malik and co posses arms and equipment like the Indian army"

Do I want everyone with a death wish to be armed and ready to kill? No.

I would like to (and I will) address this from the viewpoint of dharma - which is to preserve life and society and the environment (while doing enough to thwart foes) This does not include enabling everyone to hurt the environment and kill. So it is essential that we do what we need to protect ourselves and do whatever we can to prevent others from getting or refining the means to destroy the earth.

I believe we have a deterrent against China and Pakistan. If we don't we must still not test off NoKo's shoulder and realize that both China and Pakistan will test off our shoulder and enable more groups to gain nukes. If we test we do it for ourselves. Not because someone else did it and we see an opportunity for something we do not have the guts to do otherwise. I believe that if we don't have the guts to test for our own self interest and need to wait for rats to test and copy them, we are definitely not going to grow the balls to use those weapons.

My views..

[UlanBatori]

Inquilab Zindabad! ReOpen Morbid RubberNecking Thread!
India has no interest except to see NoKo-cheen-paki combo cut to size.

[Manish_Sharma]

Voted number 3, Negative.
We haven't tested since 98, but porki-cheeni-noko have tested 6 times since 2006. Porkis are now 6 tests ahead of us.

[Gagan]

Negative

1. The hwasong-14 has a 6700 Km range. No indian missile has that claimed range
2. NoKo's TN test is a ballpark 200+ KT test, which if their claims are true is missile deliverable.
India's TN has not been field tested to that yield. Our scientists claim that their data from Shakti-2 allows them to extrapolate and increase yield upto 200KT. Again this claim IMHO falls short both in terms of the yield (a nebulous 'upto 200kt' vs a possible 200-400kt yield), and the fact that the NoKos have actually field tested to full yield vs a theoretical claim by indian scientists

Parity does not exist with Indias adversaries, and thereforce deterrence can not be assumed to be absolute

Pakistan will very soon acquire the same design and yield. They have everything - Pu reprocessing at Pindi and Chashma, a Lithium Deuteride plant in Khushab being built by the chinese, 4 uranium gas centrifuge sites including further expansion of the kahuta site. They will likely have a working TN before the end of this decade.

[UlanBatori]

4: This thread is a gas centrifuge. Failure to stop NoKo nonsense means end of nuclear restraint. Look for Sri Lanka to acquire thermonuclear mijjile with 20,000 mile range (Colombo to Colombo by Columbian Navigation).

[KLNMurthy]

I voted negative.

1. Indians who live on America's west coast, who are mostly staunch Indian patriots, are endangered by NoKo nukes.

2. NoKo nukes are giving China leverage over America by issuing a nuclear threat, hiding behind its NoKo munna. This is part of Chinese quest for world domination. Obviously bad for India.

[JayS]

I voted Neutral. Because I think its upto India to make use of it as opportunity and make it a positive or sit on our hands and wait until it comes back and bites us some day.

[UlanBatori]

Positive because it may finally awaken Americans (and Indians) to the Chinese' real long-term plans for the rest of the world. Too late of course. Trouble is, China vs. ISIS: The world ain't big enuf for both.

[JE Menon]

Voted positive. NK's nuclear status has been a fait accompli for a while. Best we can do is increase and make the most of the diplomatic and strategic discomfiture it is going to cause a number of players in the region: China, Pakistan, South Korea, Japan, the US and Russia.

[Dipanker]

Negative because of PAKI - CHEENI - NOKO nexus.

[UlanBatori]

Why is Japanese yen rising wrt $? I would think Japan is most likely to get hit even if NoKo mijjiles are intercepted in flight.

[ldev]

Negative. China will now give a TN to Pakistan to threaten India and claim that "rogue" North Korea gave Pakistan a proven TN design.

[UlanBatori]

Positive because Pakis are more likely to detonate a nuke in xinjiang/East Turkestan.

[Karthik S]

Negative, pakis would very likely get hands on mega nuke bomb. Further decreasing any chances of India Pak war.

[ldev]

Why is Japanese yen rising wrt $? I would think Japan is most likely to get hit even if NoKo mijjiles are intercepted in flight.

The Japanese have more money invested/lent outside their own country than any other nation. In times of crisis such as the present they are taking their own money back home to prepare for any eventuality, including rebuilding. For them, safe haven, is their own homeland and their own currency. And so the yen is rising based on this demand for yen from the Japanese themselves.

[krisna]

neutral.
irrespective of what nook does, it is not dangerous perse to India.
yes tsp and china are enemies.
But having noko possessing "whatever you call as bomb" should not change India in anyway.

OTOH may influence other china rim countries towards India favorably as a china counter weight if played well by India.


Best solution is NoKo and So Ko uniting.Undues cold war mischief enormously and lessens the tensions to other countries by reducing the Chinese belligerence.

Leaves India alone with POK to liberate and lkater Tibet as autonomous country with possible Indian security some sort of arrangement in future or at least Indian influence.

For this we need china to fully embrace Buddhism as main religion.

[UlanBatori]

The Japanese have more money invested/lent outside their own country than any other nation. In times of crisis such as the present they are taking their own money back home to prepare for any eventuality, including rebuilding. For them, safe haven, is their own homeland and their own currency. And so the yen is rising based on this demand for yen from the Japanese themselves.

Amazing people!

[Pratyush]

Voted 2 for the reasons mentioned in the caption. If the Chinese had a brain they would let north fall, and let south spend decades and trillions of won absorbing north. But they don't. Resulting in south being a top 10 military power and Japan is allowed to get away with having just a self defense force.

[ArjunPandit]

CT Mode on: there is a possibility of china benefiting from this test,
1. China might want to get rid of fat boy slim
2. Pak/China might get their new components/designs tested

[Kashi]

The time for NoKo to fall was in 1990-91, when the rest of communist regimes started dropping like flies one by one. There would have been a unified Korea, Kims in exile in China, no nukes on the peninsula or if unification were not possible, for consensus, there would be a DPRK that would closer to it's name in spirit and practice.

For some reason no one was interested. Least of all SoKo.

[shiv]

Kim Jong Un had his brother killed in Malaysia recently. That brother was living in exile in China and Dear Leader thought that China may kill him and replace him with that brother. Relations between Kim and China are not that good. I don't think Kim is going to remain forever grateful to China for their help, or be obsequious and servile.

The question of "allowing South Korea" to take over the north does not exist even with Chinese sponsorship.

If Kim knows he is going to get defeated he loses nothing by sending just one nuke at a Chinese city. Now I ask why China would welcome one nuke on one of its cities simply to allow South Korea to take over the North? Kim is in a situation where he can blackmail China and say I will nuke you too as I go down and I do not believe for 1 femtosecond that China does not mind "just one NoKo nuke" on itself the way people claim the Chinese will not care about a few puny Indian nukes.

If China does not help Kim he will hit them. If they help him then China has to risk fighting the US and having the US on its borders. Of teh two it is easier to face up to the US that has a history of hitting only weak foes after 1945. Chins too is exactly like that.

One definition of "great power" could be "Do not fight powerful enemies. Simply act tough with weak foes. Keep them weak with fake promises" Kim is not weak any more. And Pakistan to can now afford to tell the US to bugger off. Some great powers

[Kashi]

Kim Jong Un had his brother killed in Malaysia recently. That brother was living in exile in China and Dear Leader thought that China may kill him and replace him with that brother. Relations between Kim and China are not that good. I don't think Kim is going to remain forever grateful to China for their help, or be obsequious and servile.

It may not be widely known, but what the youngest Kim did to the eldest Kim brother was no different from what his grampa and his pa and indeed he himself had done before.

I recall reading some reports that speculated that Kim Jong Il, had his father Kim Il Sun offed in 1994 to become the undisputed king and Kim Jong Un, re payed the favour in 2011. He also had his uncle executed by anti-aircraft guns.

Grampa Kim himself consolidated his power by purging countless comrades who fought by his side when he was supposedly fighting the imperial Japanese (lots of disputes over that too). The man publicly did not reveal himself till after the Soviet invasion of Korean peninsula that pushed out the Japanese and established DPRK.

Killing off any potential claimants to the throne seems to be long standing tradition in Kims Korea.

[Austin]

Positive as this would force diplomacy on all stake holders and prevent war help in stability of region and prevent Iraq , Syria and Libya like situation.

[Gagan]

Negative impact on security of most nations.
Japan: Negative
SoKo: Negative
USA: Negative
India: Negative

The only ones laughing and who think this is positive are NoKo, China, Pakistan, Iran and Russia
Before SoKo or Japan ever declare they have N weapons, Iran is likely to come out into the open and either test or declare capability

Indian politicians & N scientists will have eggs on their faces, and we will have another round of Ashwathama (the elephant) is dead onlee, like after Shakti
NoKos test is like the first of a series of dominos, if they are not CRE'd, there will be more breakout states. China and russia are only going to encourage this. If the middle east goes nuclear, then israel will be a target

Now why would the chinese not want this hain ji? Israel supplies mil tech to India, not china no?

The lines are fairly clearly getting drawn

[shiv]

There is yet another outcome possible. And that is no other country will nuclearize in response to NoKo's aggravation. Nuclearization of more and more states is not just a headache for the US , China and Russia - but it is an even bigger headache for non nuclear states who can make nuclear weapons and make them work reliably without testing within months of deciding to do that. These include Japan, Sweden and Germany among others. Japan does not need to test. There are some bomb designs that are guaranteed to work and can be guaranteed to give a dangerously large bang without hot testing given adequate industrial tech. All that is needed is the material and the engineering expertise. Many NPT signatories have all that.

Those nations know they can go nuclear but also know that lower tech entities may need to test and if the high tech nations go down the testing route no one can be stopped. Right now there is great pressure on Iran. NoKo is going to see more pressure. I predict Pakistan will be next unless it starts toeing some lines.

I doubt if any of the "big powers" (esp US and Russia) are interested in seeing proliferation of nukes everywhere simply because they have the power to wipe out all those countries but do not wish to do that because of the dangers of nuclear fallout

[Kashi]

Japan does not need to test. There are some bomb designs that are guaranteed to work and can be guaranteed to give a dangerously large bang without hot testing given adequate industrial tech. All that is needed is the material and the engineering expertise. Many NPT signatories have all that.

There's a lot more than meets the eye

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/ ... tion-risk/

OSAKA – A large shipment of plutonium is expected to depart Japan soon amid a warning from a senior American official saying nuclear reprocessing in East Asia could lead to increased amounts of nuclear material that could be used for nuclear weapons.

By late Sunday, two armed British transport ships currently docked in Kobe, the Pacific Egret and the Pacific Heron, are to be dispatched to the Japan Atomic Energy Agency’s port in the village of Tokai, Ibaraki Prefecture, according to Greenpeace, which is monitoring the ships.

The vessels will pick up 331 kg (729 pounds) of plutonium that was sent to Japan by the United States for civil research years ago but can also be used for nuclear weapons. The material will be returned to the U.S. Department of Energy’s Savannah River Site in South Carolina in a trip expected to take about two months.
...
In 2014, Abe and Obama agreed that Japan would return plutonium which was sent to Japan in the Cold War era for research purposes.

In particular, the material was used for research into the country’s failed fast-breeder reactor program at Monju in Fukui Prefecture, which aimed to produce more plutonium from spent nuclear fuel than it consumed.

In addition, Japan is still officially pursing reprocessing at a facility in Rokkasho, Aomori Prefecture, which extracts plutonium from spent conventional nuclear reactor fuel. The Rokkasho reprocessing plant is decades behind schedule and way over budget, costing over ¥2 trillion by unofficial estimates, due to technological problems. Last November, its start was postponed for the 23rd time, until 2018.
...
As of early 2015, the total amount of separated plutonium managed within and outside of Japan was about 47.8 tons. Approximately 10.8 tons was held domestically and about 37 tons was held abroad, according to the Japan Atomic Energy Commission.

[shiv]

From a paper by Gsponer that I linked elsewhere

Indeed, as we now know for a fact, during the 1950s to the 1980s, a number of larger and smaller industrialized countries6 have acquired the technical and industrial capability (e.g., by means of “peaceful” nuclear activities) to manufacture nuclear weapons components and to assemble them on short notice. Because such an approach to a nuclear weapon capability is inherently ambiguous and does not force a nation to signal or even decide in advance its actual intentions, it is termed latent proliferation [17].7

[The nations in] in alphabetical order, Argentina, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan, Poland, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, etc.

Moreover, it is now also recognized that some large industrialized countries,e.g., Japan and Germany, have extended their latent proliferation capability to the point where they could make not only atomic bombs but also hydrogen bombs that could be built and delivered with a very high probability of success.

[Austin]

North Korean nuclear test shows steady advance: interview with Siegfried Hecker

http://thebulletin.org/north-korean-nuc ... ecker11091