Understanding New China after 19th Congress

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ramana
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby ramana » 05 May 2018 01:57

I fully support your analysis. It states my thoughts.

Glad we opened this thread when we did.

Please blog this so can Tweet it.

Thanks.

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Re: The Xi Phenomenon

Postby kiranA » 05 May 2018 04:05

SSridhar wrote:ramana, I have not read that book, 'Third Revolution' yet. All in good time.

But, I will summarize my assessment of the Xi phenomenon.

The fact remains that Mao wanted to consolidate China after the revolution and eliminate threats from the periphery and from inside as well. Though China had wars with Russia, India and Vietnam during Mao's period, it was practically an inward-looking enterprise.

Mao's successor in the party, Deng, wanted to ensure that another Mao-like cult figure did not occupy the seat; removed the party from the task of governance and launched an export-based economy (through SEZs and some privatisation of state-owned enterprises, SOEs). Deng perhaps wanted to establish the Imperialistic China but was practical enough to wait. This was the second revolution. Jiang Zemin followed suit with a second economic revolution when liberalization was accelerated and doing business in China was tremendously eased for non-Chinese enterprises.

Neither Deng nor Jiang felt that they were indispensable. But, Xi has a diametrically opposite approach. Xi has undone Deng's political moves. He *is* the self-anointed cult figure; he has usurped all powers and has become stronger than the Chairman himself; he wants the Party to be ubiquitous - from controlling the government to formulating policies; he wants a consumer-based local economy while not giving up on the export-based economy though there is now realization that the latter is no longer sustainable. If Hu Jintao wanted to relax party's hold on China (which was strongly opposed by Jiang), Xi has gone in the opposite direction and has even surpassed Jiang in making CPC the most authoritative entity. Xi has been a quintessential party man and it was his putting down of the Shanghai corruption scandal in 2005-2006 that catapulted him within the party and to the position he holds now. Even then, he only narrowly beat his opponent, Li Keqiang (the Hu man who is now a dummy Premier). Therefore, it is remarkable that he has accumulated all the power and reached a seemingly unassailable pinnacle today. (Xi has a reputation for being an anti-corruption crusader though he has also used it to smother opposition to him as well.)

Xi's concept of 'China Dream' which he has successfully sold to the CPC as well as the people at large is premised on four pillars, viz., the centrality of CPC, Chinese nationalism (which includes Chinese Pride or, in other words establishing a worldwide Middle Kingdom), launching of a third economic revolution (which includes not only the bread-and-butter BRI but also emerging areas such as AI apart from innovation etc) and fourthly displacing the US as the sole superpower (though the last is couched in terms of military might, modernization etc).

Xi is completely convinced of his belief systems, namely China will & shall be the benign sole superpower and Sinification is the panacea for all ills of the world and his actions would achieve the China Dream for his citizens. He has no compunction in smashing any opposition on the way, in order to achieve that.

But, he is well aware of how some other genuine attempts fell by the wayside and the leader had to exit unceremoniously, especially in the FSU. He is supposed to have expressed Gorbachev's 'glasnost' that led to his downfall in meetings of the inner circles of the Party. That is another reason that he has accumulated all powers, has stuffed all positions with hand-picked loyalists and has made the party stronger. This also underpins his 'social credit' scheme for Chinese citizens. That's the 'centrality of the CPC', his first principle. He is cleverly claiming that the CPC is the natural inheritor of Chinese culture!

As for nationalism, his second principle, it is nothing new. It is something that all Chinese leaders have always attempted. There is a draconian Chinese law in existence for decades now that awards death as the only punishment for anyone who concedes Chinese territory to the enemy. Something akin to Blasphemy in Islam. For a communist country, the number of card-carrying communists is low in China, less than a hundred million. For the Chinese, social-engineered by Confucius and the imperial dynasties, nationalism is thoroughly accepted as an essential part of life and harmony. What Xi has done though, to differentiate his purpose of nationalism, is to effectively intertwine three ideas: his by-now Constitutionally enshrined 'socialism with Chinese characteristics', the need to avenge the 'Century of Shame' and of course, the hoary concept of 'Middle Kingdom'.

Xi's clever economic advisors have suggested to him that the Chinese economic efforts should drastically alter their trajectory as the cost arbitrage effects that so far sustained its export-oriented mass production is irreversibly strained. This forms therefore his third pillar. So, Xi is embarking on three aspects now: domestic consumption-driven economy, knowledge-driven economy and the services sector. All three of them are relatively new to the practices that China had followed so far. Xi has specially focussed therefore on science, technology & innovation.

The fourth, but not the least of the four, is to make China replace the US as the sole pole. Xi has dished out deadlines too for various milestones. His deadline for this replacement is 2049, the hundredth year of the establishment of Communist China. Deng & Jiang might have entertained the very same idea too, but they never showed it. Xi is brash about it and that is another significant difference.

Simply put, no Chinese leader before him has undertaken such sweeping changes both domestically & internationally, not taken so many enemies all around, and not so openly attempted to establish the worldwide dominance of China. That's the third revolution.


Xi phoenmoenon to me stems from more confidence among Chinese in their political system. They removed the restriction of two terms (that restriction doesnt exist in a vast majority of countries anyway. dont forget Xi still needs to be re-elected.) Regarding their economic and international goals i just see them as logical corollary of chinese economic maturity . I dont think Xi or China has ever a public goal to replace usa as superpower. I doubt they have any such goal. but what they do want right now is to eliminate US ability to impose any limitations on chines growth.

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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby kiranA » 05 May 2018 04:31

I say i doubt chinese really have a goal to replace us because chinese have shown in past that they are quiet happy to play along as long as usa accords china the same priveleges it accords itself. Chinese are enthusiastic participant in UN P-5 regime, NPT regime, and generally opposes expanding of these regimes to include any other countries. So as long as Us is willing to break bread china will happily play along. I think ball is in west court now - will they accomodate china like "honorary whites" japan or work to limit it is their choice. But both are tough and both may not last. China is just too big for both of them. Lets see.

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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby SSridhar » 05 May 2018 09:09

kiranA, IMO, if we don't recognize China as an imperial power in the garb of a socialist/communist country, we are making a grave error. No Imperial power has ever been satisfied with status-quo, more so in China's case. We have discussed all this in the other thread on China.

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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby Singha » 06 May 2018 10:09

IBNLive

Washington: The United States on Saturday scolded China for attempting to impose "political correctness" on American carriers by asking them to classify Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau as Chinese territories.

A sternly worded White House statement excoriated Beijing for the demands, which it termed "Orwellian nonsense."

"President Donald J. Trump ran against political correctness in the United States," it said. "He will stand up for Americans resisting efforts by the Chinese Communist Party to impose Chinese political correctness on American companies and citizens."

The statement added that the Chinese Civil Aviation Administration sent a notice to 36 foreign air carriers, including a number of American carriers, on April 25, asking them to comply with Beijing's standards

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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby Singha » 06 May 2018 10:11

China is no more a communist country than india is, infact india runs more communist type redistributive income, subsidies and other freebie schemes than china does. we are more commie than china. just ask any friendly chinese guy what is the prevalence of low grade cancers there and how little the govt helps price control such essential meds....cheen visitors to india buy some meds OTC or ask indian friends to procure. i know this from having helped one such with 60k worth of meds in one shot for his mother.

china is best classified as a authoritarian, mercantile, expantionist, technocratic imperial power ruled by a select set of tyrants. infact the next incarnation of the roman empire. I would not say ottoman, because that was a heriditary scheme , its more roman and non-heriditary in that whichever of the elite is the strong one in the top table "senate" gets to rule next. just as successful generals and leaders like ceaser, augustus, hadrian, trajan with the support of the legions could somewhat bend the rules and reduce the collective powers of the senate to become a "emperor" , so too has it been in china with mao, deng, li peng, and now Xi.

as did the roman army it uses auxiliaries from the sinic & islamist barbarian ecosphere for forward skirmishing, light cavalry, scouting, raiding, FUD spreading roles.

america is all of the above, but in a far more milder, diffused format and one that guarantees the basic rights of most of its citizens at the street level. using education, media, soft power to shape things internally more than police and draconian laws. one can say it is china evolved some 10 levels forward in a more benign Imperium :D and thats is why people flock to its riches and not to china.

being rootless mercenaries, some of the islamist auxiliaries of cheen like TSP also do the same role for the american imperium..sometimes they learn the game through long service and become empires in their own right ..... none understand the inner weakness of empire more than its mercenary vassals ..... by giving these bloody noses to the HQ on carefully chosen occasions, the vassal assets his strength, unpredictability and keeps the money flowing into his auxiliary coffers. the pakis no doubt are expert at this game with the US and China.


The Battle of the Teutoburg Forest (German: Schlacht im Teutoburger Wald, Hermannsschlacht, or Varusschlacht, Italian: Disfatta di Varo), described as the Varian Disaster (Clades Variana) by Roman historians, took place in the Teutoburg Forest in 9 CE, when an alliance of Germanic tribes ambushed and decisively destroyed three Roman legions and their auxiliaries, led by Publius Quinctilius Varus. The alliance was led by Arminius, a Germanic officer of Varus' auxilia. Arminius had acquired Roman citizenship and had received a Roman military education, which enabled him to deceive the Roman commander methodically and anticipate the Roman army's tactical responses.

Despite several successful campaigns and raids by the Romans in the years after the battle, they never again attempted to conquer the Germanic territories east of the Rhine river. The victory of the Germanic tribes against Rome's legions in the Teutoburg Forest would have far-reaching effects on the subsequent history of both the ancient Germanic peoples and the Roman Empire.

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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby JE Menon » 06 May 2018 11:42

^^A very interesting and useful view there GD. Thank you for posting it.

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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby hanumadu » 13 May 2018 02:25

What Keeps Xi Jinping Awake at Night
The recent trade dispute between China and the United States has brought new attention to China’s zeal to become technologically self-reliant. The book shows that Mr. Xi was determined that China master its own microchips, operating systems and other core technologies well before this recent quarrel. In two speeches — in July and August 2013 — Mr. Xi pointedly said that Western domination came thanks to technology.

“Advanced technology is the sharp weapon of the modern state. An important reason that Western countries were able to hold sway over the world in modern times was that they held the advanced technology. You cannot buy the truly core technologies. It’s been aptly put that ‘The sharpest weapon of a state should not be revealed.’”

“Our technology still generally lags that of developed countries, and we must adopt an asymmetrical strategy of catching up and overtaking, bringing our own advantages to bear. In core technological fields where it would be impossible for us to catch up by 2050, we must research asymmetrical steps to catch up and overtake. Internationally, if you don’t have the advantage of core technologies, you don’t have the political momentum. We must make a big effort in key fields and areas where there is a stranglehold. The same applies to the military.”


What Sun Tzu tactic is it that you pick up fights with everybody when you are decades away from achieving parity in technology with them and dependent on them for advanced technology?

So even with all the stealing of technology, China will still need time till 2050 to be self sufficient in technology.

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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby Pulikeshi » 14 May 2018 12:22



Eleven’s two pronged attack - consolidation at home and super aggressive abroad described well.

What I am not sure has been covered in detail by most analysts is the need for growth % due to a declining demographics in China.
Wonder if all the strategyms attributed to Chinese Mandarins really boils down to -
AI cared for old folks paid with interest and pensions from 3rd world via third revolution, thereby Eleven gets to keep drinking gin!

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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby Singha » 17 May 2018 07:06

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/were-br ... from=home-

BEIJING: Kayrat Samarkand says his only "crime" was being a Muslim who had visited neighboring Kazakhstan. On that basis alone, he was detained by police, aggressively interrogated for three days, then dispatched in November to a "reeducation camp" in China's western province of Xinjiang for three months.

There, he faced endless brainwashing and humiliation, he said in an interview, was forced to study Communist propaganda for hours every day, and chant slogans giving thanks and wishing long life to President Xi Jinping.

"Those who disobeyed the rules, refused to be on duty, engaged in fights or were late for studies were placed in handcuffs and ankle cuffs for up to 12 hours," he said. Further disobedience would result in waterboarding or long periods strapped in agony in a metal contraption known as a "tiger chair," he said, a punishment he said he suffered.

Between several hundred thousand to just over 1 million Muslims have been detained inside China's mass "reeducation" camps in the restive province of Xinjiang, Adrian Zenz of the European School of Culture and Theology in Korntal, Germany, said in a report released Tuesday. Zenz is a leading authority on the current crackdown in Xinjiang.

In a region of 21 million people, including 11 million Muslims, the number of those he reports to be detained would be a significant proportion of the population, especially of young adult men.

Emerging accounts of the conditions in these camps make for chilling reading.

"China's pacification drive in Xinjiang is, more than likely, the country's most intense campaign of coercive social re-engineering since the end of the Cultural Revolution," Zenz wrote, referring to the chaos unleashed by Mao Zedong in the 1960s.

"The state's proclaimed 'war on terror' in the region is increasingly turning into a war on religion, ethnic languages and other expressions of ethnic identity."

China has blamed violent attacks in Xinjiang in recent years on Islamic extremists bent on waging holy war on the state, with radical ideas said to be coming from abroad over the Internet and from visits to foreign countries by Uighurs, the region's predominant ethnic group.

In response, Beijing has turned the entire region into a 21st-century surveillance state, with ubiquitous checkpoints and widespread use of facial recognition technology, and has even forced Muslims to install spyware on their phones that allows the authorities to monitor their activity online, experts say. Long beards and veils have been banned, and overt expression of religious sentiment is likely to cause immediate suspicion.

In an extension of the already pervasive program of human surveillance, more than 1 million Communist Party cadres have been dispatched to spend days on end staying in the homes of (mostly Muslim) families throughout Xinjiang, according to a report by Human Rights Watch released this week, where they carry out political indoctrination, and report back on anything from the extent of religious beliefs to uncleanliness and alcoholism.

"Muslim families across Xinjiang are now literally eating and sleeping under the watchful eye of the state in their own homes," said Maya Wang, senior China researcher at Human Rights Watch. "The latest drive adds to a whole host of pervasive - and perverse - controls on everyday life in Xinjiang."

But reeducation camps that appear to have opened all across the region have sparked the greatest global concern.

Samarkand said 5,700 people were detained in just one camp in the village of Karamagay, almost all ethnic Kazakhs and Uighurs, and not a single person from China's Han majority ethnic group. About 200 were suspected of being "religious extremists," he said, but others had been abroad for work or university, received phone calls from abroad, or simply been seen worshiping at a mosque.

The 30-year-old stayed in a dormitory with 14 other men. After the room was searched every morning, he said, the day began with two hours of study on subjects ranging from "the spirit of the 19th Party Congress," where Xi expounded his political dogma in a three-hour speech, to China's policies on minorities and religion. Inmates would sing Communist songs, chant "Long live Xi Jinping" and do military-style training in the afternoon, before writing an account of their day, he said.

His account was corroborated by Omir Bekali, an ethnic Kazakh who was working in a tourism company in Urumqi, Xinjiang's capital, until he was arrested by police on a visit to his parents in the village of Shanshan in March 2017. Four days of interrogation, during which he was prevented from sleeping, were followed by seven months in a police cell and 20 days in a reeducation camp in the city of Karamay, he said. He was given no trial, he said, nor granted access to a lawyer.

He described a day that would begin with a flag-raising ceremony at 6:30 a.m. followed by a rendition of one or more "red" songs praising the Communist revolution. After breakfast, inmates would spend 10 minutes thanking the Communist Party and Xi for providing everything for people, from food and drink to their livelihoods.

Inmates had to learn the national anthem and red songs, he said, as well as slogans condemning the "three evil forces" of separatism, extremism and terrorism.

"There were so many things to recite, and if you couldn't recite them, they wouldn't allow you to eat, sleep or sit," he said. "They brainwash you, you must become like a robot. Listen to whatever the party says, listen to the party's words, follow the party."

Some inmates committed suicide, he said.

Both men said the food was poor, with meat rare and food poisoning not uncommon. Inmates were sometimes forced to eat pork, forbidden in Islam, as punishment, while Bekali said those accused of being "religious extremists" were also forced to drink alcohol.


Bekali, 42, had emigrated to Kazakhstan in 2006 and become a Kazakh citizen, and said the Kazakh government eventually won his release. Samarkand said he was allowed to leave for Kazakhstan to join his wife and children after having his house and savings, worth about $190,000, confiscated by the government. He was given 500 yuan, equivalent to $80, by police at the border as he departed.

Both men, interviewed by phone, are now in Kazakhstan.

Although the Chinese government has officially denied the existence of these camps, Zenz gathered evidence of 73 government procurement and construction bids valued at more than $100 million, along with public recruitment notices and other documents, pointing to the establishment of camps across the region.

He dates the onset of widespread detentions to March 2017, and a government campaign of "de-extremification" through education. That followed the appointment of Chen Quanguo as party secretary in Xinjiang in August 2016, and his transfer from Tibet, where he oversaw a similar program of intense social control, surveillance and securitization.

Many procurement bids, Zenz noted, mandate the installation of comprehensive security features that turn existing facilities into prisonlike compounds, with walls, security fences, barbed wire, reinforced security doors, surveillance systems, secure access systems, watchtowers, and guard rooms for police.

"While there is no published data on reeducation detainee numbers, information from various sources permit us to estimate internment figures at anywhere between several hundred thousand and just over one million," Zenz wrote in a report first published by the Jamestown Foundation.

"The latter figure is based on a leaked document from within the region's public security agencies, and, when extrapolated to all of Xinjiang, could indicate a detention rate of up to 11.5 percent of the region's adult Uighur and Kazakh population."

Bekali said he met doctors, lawyers and teachers in the camps, while Radio Free Asia (RFA) has reported that wealthy businessmen, 80-year-olds and even breast-feeding mothers have been among the detainees.

One of the most well-known detainees is a Uighur soccer player, Erfan Hezim, 19, a former member of China's youth soccer team and now a forward for Chinese Super League team Jiangsu Suning. Hezim, also known by his Chinese name Ye Erfan, was detained in February while visiting his parents in Xinjiang, according to RFA, on the pretext that he had visited foreign countries, although he had reportedly traveled abroad only to train and take part in soccer matches.

Also detained have been dozens of family members of journalists from the Washington-based RFA, who have been at the forefront of reporting on the deepening crackdown in Xinjiang and the reeducation camps. At least two of the affected reporters, both naturalized U.S. citizens, have reason to believe their family members were detained directly because of their reporting, RFA said.

In one report, RFA quoted a Chinese official as justifying the widespread detentions in blunt terms.


"You can't uproot all the weeds hidden among the crops in the field one by one - you need to spray chemicals to kill them all," the official was quoted as saying. "Reeducating these people is like spraying chemicals on the crops. That is why it is a general reeducation, not limited to a few people."

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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby ramana » 18 May 2018 03:35

KiranA wrote:1) Xi phoenmoenon to me stems from more confidence among Chinese in their political system. They removed the restriction of two terms (that restriction doesnt exist in a vast majority of countries anyway. dont forget Xi still needs to be re-elected.) Regarding their economic and international goals i just see them as logical corollary of chinese economic maturity . 2) I dont think Xi or China has ever a public goal to replace usa as superpower. I doubt they have any such goal. but 3) what they do want right now is to eliminate US ability to impose any limitations on chines growth.


M replies:
1) XI JinPing usurping all authority comes from insecurity of the Chinese communist system. Its fear that drives this consolidation. They see the change approaching it and want to be in control as it changes them. So they have gone back to the only model they know of the Empire.

2) Xi JInPing in his speech has been very clear that is their goal and he gave time and milestones to be achieved

3) Yes this is short term goal to achieve 2)

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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby ramana » 18 May 2018 03:37

GD, So Xi JinPing China's solution to the Muslim extremism is to indoctrinate with Communist re-education programs just like in Mao's time.

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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby kiranA » 19 May 2018 04:14

ramana wrote:
KiranA wrote:1) Xi phoenmoenon to me stems from more confidence among Chinese in their political system. They removed the restriction of two terms (that restriction doesnt exist in a vast majority of countries anyway. dont forget Xi still needs to be re-elected.) Regarding their economic and international goals i just see them as logical corollary of chinese economic maturity . 2) I dont think Xi or China has ever a public goal to replace usa as superpower. I doubt they have any such goal. but 3) what they do want right now is to eliminate US ability to impose any limitations on chines growth.


M replies:
1) XI JinPing usurping all authority comes from insecurity of the Chinese communist system. Its fear that drives this consolidation. They see the change approaching it and want to be in control as it changes them. So they have gone back to the only model they know of the Empire.

2) Xi JInPing in his speech has been very clear that is their goal and he gave time and milestones to be achieved

3) Yes this is short term goal to achieve 2)


Thanks for your response, Ramana . Here is what I think:
1) "Insecurity" is just a speculation to me unless you are aware of any concrete stuff. There is nothing in modern China which supports that - the country is far richer economically, stronger militarily, advanced technologically, made great progress in diplomacy, resolved all land borders(except India), and is getting its way on sea borders. SO insecure about what ? OTOH when these term limits were introduced China was much more insecure nation..it just emerged from cultural revolution, it was poorer than India, and Deng felt the governance should be different to Party. But now the Party is more confident than ever and it wants government to align with Party as it is government which is more corrupt now.
2. ) All of the goals just talk about results to Chinese people that he plans to deliver. China has no agenda to export its governing model either through violence or through influence. It has shown no desire to impose its sense of morality on other nations. So in what sense you mean super power ?

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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby ramana » 31 Oct 2018 21:25

The economic slowdown coupled with the tariff war with US is bring signs of cracks in China.
Today Bloomberg mentioned that China's equivalent of PMI is at 50.2 with 50 being dead even.


Reuters Link

Second China is considering economic stimulus

Third experts are blaming China central banking authority for the large over capacity and current NPA mess.

Fourth more importantly
Beijing Uty Academic Pulls up China Economic Model


Chinese Economic model for the first time has come under criticism from none other than a professor of Peking University.

On October 23, Zhang Weiying, a professor at Peking University, who is also regarded as a liberal scholar, published an article entitled “Understanding the World and the Chinese Economy” on the official website of the National Development Research Institute of Peking University.



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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby Suraj » 01 Nov 2018 00:03

Generally, one month manufacturing PMI data anywhere is far too noisy to see any trend out of. As such, it is not useful. However, historical data IS useful, and the latest data does fit the trendline well:
China Caixin Manufacturing PMI data:
Image
The chart is notable in a few ways:
1. a mid year slump leading to the holiday season is unusual
2. The entire 2018 so far seems to be a slow drop in PMI, as opposed to a noisy up and down MoM figure that simply suggests that one-month data is simply far too high frequency to spot an accurate trendline.

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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby ramana » 01 Nov 2018 00:29

However JP Morgan Private Capital manager was worried to speak on Bloomberg this morning.

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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby ramana » 16 Nov 2018 05:19

Two news related to Xi Jinping's new China struck my interest.
1) A NPR report about travails of Pakistani men married to Uighur women due to the open borders and the Chinese authorities detaining the women when the return to Xinkiang. Apparently due to the common border after China took over COK, a lot of Pakistani traders went to Xinkiang and married local women and went back to Pakistan. After the recent crackdown on extremists, these women are being held. Pakistan is not taking any action or protest as it is beholden to China. So the men complaining to NPR women correspondents and this is publicized as one more atrocity by China.
2) There was a BBC report that 15 countries gave notice of human rights violations by China in Xinkiang.


From all these I see the Dragon has swallowed a Snake which is biting it from inside.

Uighur extremism is Pakistan fed. Going on since 1963.
Its not recent.

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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby SSridhar » 16 Nov 2018 08:44

ramana, Uyghur issue is home-grown. Pakistani state policy or even Islamist religious parties have not supported the Uyghur struggle.

The issues you are referring to are happening in the last six months or so after Xi was re-elected in October 2017 and decided to vigorously implement the 're-education programme' for the Uyghurs. The Pakistanis have had interaction with the Uyghurs through Baltistan for long but that increased manifold only after CPEC kicked-in and Pakistani businessmen began visiting Uyghur areas in large numbers and social interaction skyrocketed.

The only group that hosted, trained and supported the militant Uyghurs was Tahir Yuldashev & Juma Namangani-led IMU (Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan). IMU was established in 1998 with base in Afghanistan to launch attacks into Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Strictly speaking, this is not a Pakistani terrorist group, but because it operates in Af-Pak and was a part of the 'bad Taliban', it has been attacking the Pakistani state as well.

Hafiz Saeed or Masood Azhar was never involved with the ETIM. The PA saw to it that its pro-Sarkari terrorists never got entangled with China. The 'bad Taliban' like the Ghazi brothers of Lal Masjid or TTP were, however. That's why China created so many blocks against Hafiz Saeed from coming under 1267 sanctions and continues to offer stiff resistance on behalf of Masood Azhar. the Lal Masjid action by Musharraf that precipitated such a violent backlash within Terroristan was because of China reading the riot act to the General. The 'bad Taliban' were created because of that single act.

The reason why PA took action in North Waziristan (Zerb-e-Azb) was also due to (apart from the Peshawar Army School attack or the earlier Karachi Airport attack) the demands from China to eliminate IMU (Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan) from Pakistani territories because it was the IMU that was sheltering the ETIM.

Xi Jinping's fist visit to Xinjiang was marred by Uyghur separatists, knife-wielding ETIM jihadis killed dozens in Kunming Railway Station (March 2014) and an SUV carrying Uyghurs exploded in Tienanmen Square (October 2013) right under the benign face of Mao with smoke billowing for some time, especially with Gen. Kiyani visiting there on the very same day on his 'farewell visit'.

The Chinese traced all these to Pakistan, demanded stern action and read the riot act. The incoming Raheel Sharif had no choice but to act in North Waziristan.

China wants to be friendly with LeT & JeM leadership. Way back, a decade back when Qazi Hussain Ahmed was still alive and leading the Jama'at-i-Islami, China invited him to Beijing and entered into an MoU with him. It does not want these groups to extend any help to ETIM and China has succeeded in that effort. Unlike TTP, Hafiz Saeed's LeT is a far more formidable organization. They also come handy in terror operations against India. So, China stands to gain from a genial relationship with them, a task facilitated by the PA.

Of course, the September,2017 BRICS joint communique at Xiamen referred to, "Taliban, ISIL/DAISH, Al-Qaida and its affiliates, including Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, the Haqqani network, Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammad, TTP and Hizb ut-Tahrir" as terror groups. But, even subsequently, China continues to block the UNSC demand for including Masood Azhar in the 1267 List! May be, China had to make an exception at Xiamen (after resisting so vehemently at Goa in 2016) because it had to concede to the demands of India as a quid-pro-quo for it to include other groups of interest to it such as Daesh, ETIM, IMU. It did put up stiff resistance on behalf of Hafeez Saeed too earlier but ultimately had to budge. So are China's efforts at FATF. It appears that it wants to protect the 'leadership' even if the organization itself is listed. It is playing a complex diplomatic game but the underlying truth is that it has, in the process, staved off any collusion between Pakistan-based pro-sarkari jihadi terror groups and the Uyghurs.

IMO, with the extinction of 'bad Taliban', ETIM has practically disappeared. There has never been any state or support by people-at-large for the Uyghur struggle from Pakistan. Not so far.

ramana
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby ramana » 16 Nov 2018 10:18

SS
Thanks for the education.
What I don't understand is the Uighur initial Islamization that started much earlier. The 1998 surge is built on the earlier base.

hnair
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby hnair » 07 Dec 2018 09:32

Despite having a lot of threads on China, we dont have a "China watch" thread yet, which looks at deep social issues and social trends. So posting this here

Award-Winning Photojournalist Disappears In China, And Here Are 21 Of His Pics China Don’t Want You To See

The images are haunting and shows the misrule of a few engineering and military types....

A select few by the Chinese Govt persecuted photographer, that shows the status of a country that shows off only its Shenzen or Shanghai:

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The photographer won at the 2004 World Press Photo competition for his exposure of “AIDS villages”, where people 678 people got infected with HIV after selling their blood. Out of 3,000 people, 678 have contracted HIV and 200 have died.


Image
(Laseng Temple has an over 200-year-old history, which includes the study of Mongolian medicines. It was seriously polluted by the surrounding factories, so few pilgrims go there now. Image credits: Lu Guang)

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(Families such as this one have sold almost everything valuable in their home to help meet medical expenses. Image credits: Lu Guang)

ramana
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby ramana » 10 Dec 2018 23:13

HNair, We can use this as a China Watch thread.


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