Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

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Rudradev
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by Rudradev »

Something more to think about. There will surely be a battle for succession after Xi, and Xi's end may come suddenly (if the reports about his health are true).

I am sure US/UK/Australia has already selected a faction in CPC whom they back as their favoured successor. Russia surely has one too.

Aside from this, Taiwan, ROK, Japan, various EU countries, and maybe even Iran, KSA, Turkey probably all have their favourites to succeed XJP. These favourites may overlap with the US- or Russia-backed factions to a greater or lesser extent.

Does India have its own preferred candidate(s) to succeed Xi?

I hope we do. In general, we absolutely do not want the US/UK/Aus-backed faction, which is surely going to be pro-G2.

And we cannot trust the Russia-backed faction, because it is likely to be overly irredentist and revisionist. For revisionist powers who seek to challenge the world order, there is no greater gift than Pakistan (which has the greatest capacity to create headaches for the established world order, and will do so cheaply). A Russia-backed faction in China will almost certainly be heavily pro-Pakistan, hence a problem for us. This suits Russia as well, because India will then be reliant on Moscow to ensure that their pro-Islamabad proxies in China don't create too much trouble for us. Old story of the zamindar hiring dacoits to terrorize villagers, etc.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

It's exactly this line of thinking that iritates most Chinese.
They have two factions:
Nationalists (Chongqing)
Globalists.(Guangdong)
They alternate based on circumstances.
Indian policy is based on realism and national interests.
This means there could be convergence or divergence on issues.
This whole thread is to understand China.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

Jaishankar warns China fir trying to alter border.

Wonder what happened?
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by bala »

China, Cambodia breaking ground on joint port project

https://infra.economictimes.indiatimes. ... t/92061145
June 07, 2022
Phnom Penh: Cambodia denied again Tuesday that it will allow any Chinese military presence at a port where it and China are beginning an expansion this week that has prompted concern in the United States and elsewhere that it will be used by Beijing as a naval outpost on the Gulf of Thailand. Chief government spokesman Phay Siphan described the expansion of the Ream Naval Base as "cooperation between China and Cambodia" and said the Chinese ambassador to Cambodia will preside over the groundbreaking on Wednesday along with Cambodia's defense minister and other senior military officials.

He denied, however, a report in the Washington Post newspaper citing an anonymous Chinese official that the facility on the northern side of the Cambodian base would be used in part by the Chinese military. Siphan said it would be a violation of Cambodia's Constitution to host a foreign military power, and that there had been no change in the terms of his country's agreement with China on constructing the facility. "I think that's a strong accusation," he said in a telephone interview. He would not comment on the extent of the Chinese involvement and said the project involved constructing a facility for repairing ships. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian on Tuesday said the work would be a "renovation" of the base which "aims to strengthen the Cambodian navy's capability to maintain maritime territorial integrity and combat maritime crime."

Ream faces the Gulf of Thailand, adjacent to the South China Sea, where China has aggressively asserted its claim to virtually the entire strategic waterway. The U.S. has refused to recognize China's sweeping claim and routinely conducts military maneuvers there to reinforce that they are international waters. A Chinese base in Cambodia could become a chokepoint in the Gulf of Thailand close to the strategically important Malacca Strait. State Department spokesman Ned Price said Monday that allegations China intends to establish a military presence at the Ream base are "consistent with credible reporting we've seen from the PRC (People's Republic of China) that the PRC is engaged in a significant ongoing construction project at Ream Naval Base." "As we've said, an exclusive PRC military presence at Ream could threaten Cambodia's autonomy and undermine regional security as well," he said.

China recently signed a security deal with the Solomon Islands that the U.S. and others worry could lead to a military presence there, and Price noted that Beijing has also reached out to a number of other South Pacific islands. "We have seen the PRC attempt to put forward a series of shadowy, opaque deals that they would like to see signed in the dead of night with no input or transparency," he said. "This has been a pattern on the part of the PRC." The U.S. itself has more foreign military bases than any other country, including multiple facilities in the Asia-Pacific region. At a regular Foreign Ministry briefing, Zhao accused the U.S. of "bullying" Cambodia and ignoring its denials that Ream would be used for Chinese military purposes, while noting Washington's own network of bases around the world. "China and Cambodia are comprehensive strategic partners, and our cooperation in various fields is open, transparent, reasonable and legitimate, which benefits the two countries," he said.

China so far operates just one acknowledged foreign military base, in the impoverished but strategically important Horn of Africa nation of Djibouti. Many believe that China's People's Liberation Army is busy establishing an overseas military network, even if they don't use the term "base." Cambodia's authoritarian leader, Hun Sen, has long cultivated relations with China, and reportedly signed a secret agreement in 2019 allowing the Chinese to establish a base at Ream. Though Hun Sen has strongly denied that Cambodia would allow China to set up a military outpost at Ream, China has already been dredging the harbor to allow larger ships to dock, and is building new infrastructure to replace a U.S.-built naval tactical headquarters. Hun Sen suggested last month that the water would still be too shallow for any warships to dock, and reiterated that it would be a violation of Cambodia's Constitution to host a Chinese military facility. "Why would we need foreign forces, for what?" he said. "What Cambodia really needs at the moment is foreign investment, not foreign forces."

The Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, established by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank, posted satellite images in January of two "clamshell" dredgers at work in the harbour, and said while the extent of the dredging is unknown, it could mark a "significant upgrade" to the base. "The shallow waters around Ream mean it is currently only able to host small patrol vessels," it said. "A deep-water port would make it far more useful to both the Cambodian and Chinese navies.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by SSridhar »

ramana wrote:Jaishankar warns China fir trying to alter border.

Wonder what happened?
Perhaps this?
US general calls Chinese activity across Ladakh ‘eye-opening’
General Charles A Flynn, Commanding General, United States Army Pacific, said, “The [Chinese] activity level is eye-opening. Some of the infrastructure being created in the PLA’s Western Theatre Command is alarming. One has to ask the question ‘why’, and get a response as to what are their intentions.”
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

No deeper.
A visiting general's comment won't trigger a Minister's response.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

Cambodia has been loyal PRC ally in ASEAN. Hence this port.
A port needs a hinterland.
Cambodia hardly mfg anything exportable.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by SSridhar »

ramana wrote:No deeper.
A visiting general's comment won't trigger a Minister's response.
Not saying that the General's comments per se triggered the response. Saying that China is making military moves and India is aware of them and hence the warning. The General's comments probably confirm the Indian awareness.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by SSridhar »

ramana wrote:Cambodia has been loyal PRC ally in ASEAN. Hence this port.
A port needs a hinterland.
Cambodia hardly mfg anything exportable.
As far back as 2014, the Namibian Times revealed 18 naval bases that China was planning to build. One by one, they are coming true. Only Djibouti is a PLAN base today, because it already is a base for the Americans and the French and therefore was easily justifiable by the Han too. The rest will masquerade as ports.

Kuantan (Malaysia) and Kra Isthmus (Thailand) are such port projects in the vicinity of Melaka & India.

In July 2019, reports emerged that there was a secret agreement between Cambodia and PRC on the Ream Naval Base. In September 2020, Cambodia rejected a US request for access to Ream naval facility, which was a US-built one. Later, the American-built structures were demolished and by May 2021, boat-repair facility and a new dredged port had been built under Chinese support. Already, China has a 99-year lease to the Dara Sakor coast which is further up north of Ream and is building there a tourist resort that would turn out to be a white-elephant like Hambantota, but would have strategic significance. There is a possibility that PLAAF would be stationed there to be closer to Malacca, especially with its H-6 bombers.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by vijayk »

https://www.asiamarkets.com/chinese-banks-run/
There’s a run on Chinese banks and it’s being ignored by the world
In the anatomy of an economic crisis, a bank run is the point of no return.

Bank runs occur when people scramble to withdraw cash from banks in fear of collapse. In the worst cases, banks’ liquid cash reserves are exhausted, not everyone gets their money and the bank defaults.

It’s a grim scenario which, fortunately, has occurred rarely in history.

The most significant bank runs in the United States took place during the 1930’s Great Depression. More recently, there were runs on numerous U.S. banks during the Financial Crisis in 2008.

In Asia, bank runs have also been rare. A run on Japanese banks in 1927 led to the collapse of dozens of institutions across the country. There was a banking crisis in Myanmar in 2003 which the country has never really fully recovered from.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

Folks, please at least post the China news and not just be silent readers of the thread.
Lots of rhetoric coming from China last few days.
Threats of nuke war, interference in Muslim Riots, build up at LAC.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by Dilbu »

LAC standoff: China’s defence minister accuses India of 'acting provocatively'
China shifts the blame on India for ongoing border standoff in the eastern Ladakh. Accusing India of acting provocatively, Chinese defence minister Wei Fenghe said that it's not the responsibility of Beijing to resolve for the standoff. New Delhi has consistently dismissed Beijing’s allegations of acting provocatively since the standoff began in May 2020. The statement comes just days after External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar warned of response if China tries to alter the status quo at the borders.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

Lots of rhetoric from China.
This time defence minister.
Must not bode well for them.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by Dilbu »

India: China reacts to Prophet Mohammed row, hopes 'situation will be properly resolved'
China reacted after violent protests erupted in some Indian cities over the alleged controversial remarks on Prophet Mohammed that were made by Nupur Sharma, who is a spokesperson Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). She is currently suspended.

During a daily press briefing by a Chinese television channel, the country's foreign ministry on Monday (June 13) said that it hopes the "situation will be properly resolved". The spokesperson of the ministry, Wang Wenbin, was asked about Sharma's recent comments on Prophet Mohammed.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by SSridhar »

The annual Shangri La Dialogue has just taken place in Singapore after a gap of two years.

The session was opened by the Japanese PM Fumio Kishida with a keynote address on Friday. The other important speeches were given by the US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin (on Saturday) and the Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe just a while ago. India was represented only by the IN's Eastern Commander, Vice Adm. Biswajit Dasgupta and Gen. Narasimhan (Retd). The Ukrainian President virtually addressed the gathering.

Japan clearly indicated that it was going to be more involved in the affairs of the region, both militarily and economically.

The US & China restated their known positions. The US called out Chinese coercion and aggression in the East China Sea, Taiwan Straits, Indo-China Sea and Ladakh. China called the US policies as dangerous and Taiwan could not be split from China.

I have compiled below important points made by all the four above.

Reflecting the tightrope walking of most nations in the region, Singapore entered into defence deals with Japan, China and Australia.

Japanese PM Fumio Kishida

He first gave the Japanese view of the 'Current State of International Affairs' followed by "Japan's Responsibility & Efforts".

He spoke about Russia's 'aggression' against Ukraine, unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force in the East China Sea, violation of UNCLOS arbitration award in the Indo-China Sea, peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, and the North Korean nuclear and missile threats.

He ascribed all these to a situation in which confidence in the universal rules that govern international relations has been shaken.

He advanced a 'Kishida Vision for Peace' that will boost Japan's diplomatic & security role in the region. It will be based on the five pillars of Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP), enhanced security, ridding the world of nuclear weapons, strengthening UNSC and improving economic security.

A considerable portion of his idea of FOIP was to emphasize maritime security, enhancing the capacity of the littorals to enforce their maritime law by training 800 personnel from 20 Indo-Pacific countries.

As for increasing Japan's security role, he felt it was needed because 'it was Ukraine today and may be East Asia tomorrow'.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin

We also stand by our friends as they uphold their rights, which is especially important as the People’s Republic of China adopts the war coercive and aggressive approach to its territorial claims,” he said.

He said that Indo-Pacific countries faced harassment from maritime militia of China.

He said that the US would maintain an active presence in the Indo-Pacific and maintained that the US policies with respect to Taiwan have not changed; only PRC's policy has changed.

He denied that the QUAD was Asian NATO.

He said that the US was maintaining an open line of communication with the PRC to avoid any miscalculation.

Chinese Defence Minister Wei Fenghe

The US policies are pushing China towards confrontation.

The US is building an 'exclusive small group' [the Chinese way of referring to QUAD & AUKUS] to hijack countries in the region to target China.

China will fight to 'the very end' to prevent Taiwanese independence. None should underestimate the Chinese resolve.

He admitted to China increasing its nuclear arsenal and the operationalization of DF-41 but said China would never use the nukes first.

India's Position at Shangri La

India was not represented by a minister at the Shangri-La Dialogue this time, even though Rajnath Singh was nearby in Vietnam. Speaking at one of the sessions, Eastern Naval Command chief Vice Admiral Biswajit Dasgupta said China’s naval presence in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), as part of its anti-piracy escort force, did not pose a major challenge as of now.

“A fair amount of China’s trade passes through the Malacca Strait. I will not be surprised that in case there is a requirement, the PLA Navy could send more ships to the IOR to safeguard their trade. At the moment, I really don’t see that as a major challenge to the Indian Navy. But yes, it is something to be watched… India being where it is geographically will have to spend time and effort in monitoring and understanding the pattern of their operations. Depending on how a situation develops, I think responses will have to be formulated by India. But so far, we have not had an occasion for concern,” he added.
Last edited by ramana on 16 Jun 2022 10:07, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Edited by Ramana
SSridhar
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by SSridhar »

Chinese President Xi Jinping expresses readiness to help settle Ukrainian crisis
Chinese President Xi Jinping on Wednesday expressed his readiness to play a "constructive role" to help settle the Ukrainian crisis, according to the Chinese state-TV.

In a telephonic conversation with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, Xi said, "All parties concerned must take a responsible stance, thus promoting the correct settlement of the crisis in Ukraine."

"China is prepared to keep playing its constructive role," the Chinese state-TV quoted Xi as saying.

Xi asserted that Beijing was taking an independent position on the Ukrainian issue, "taking into account the facts and historical realities".

"We actively contribute to preserving peace on the global scale. Likewise, we contribute to maintaining a stable economic order in the world," he stressed.

However, it is not yet clear whether Xi has offered to mediate to end the Russia-Ukraine war, shedding Beijing's earlier reluctance to do so.

China, a close ally of Russia, steadfastly declined to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine ever since Putin launched a "special military operation" which led to the United States and its allies imposing sweeping sanctions on Russia stepping up weapons supplies to Kiev.
All bolded parts above are false.
Xi is trying to enhance his image both within and without.
Reconstruction of UKR is a good economic opportunity for China.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

It's indicative of how Beijing perceives its own role visavis Russia and Ukraine War.
And the world.
They want peace on global scale and stable economic order.
This could be after reducing US Treasury holdings to $1.00T from higher numbers earlier.

Means they want Ukraine wrapped up soon.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by bala »

China constructs new airport in Xinjiang region, stirs controversy

https://infra.economictimes.indiatimes. ... y/92241925
16 June, 2022
Beijing: A new airport constructed by China in the Xinjiang region has stirred controversy that whether "it is defense? attack? development? or something else". China completed the construction of high-altitude dual-use (military and airfield) in Tashkurgan in the Xinjiang region, reported Investigative Journalism Reportika.Tashkurgan Airport is 3,258 m above sea level, making it one of China's highest airports and the first high plateau airport in Xinjiang. The airport is expected to fully open in July 2022.

The latest development comes after Chinese leader Xi Jinping signed new rules governing "non-war" military operations which will allow the Chinese military to undertake "special military operations" abroad.

Chinese Communist Party's ugly face of their repressions of Uyghur minorities in Xinjiang is not hidden from anyone. Their policies like 'shoot to kill' those who try to escape are one among many. They even implemented sterilisation on the women to suppress the population and separate children from the family-all tantamount to genocide. Not only this, but China also tried to crush their culture and religious identities.According to reports, since 2016, over a million Uyghur Muslims have been detained in Xinjiang re-education camps by the Chinese Government. The main purpose of these re-education camps was to ensure adherence to the ideology of the Chinese Communist Party. Chinese authorities have been accused of imposing forced labour, systematic forced birth control and torture, and separating children from incarcerated parents.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

Gordon Chang says mandate of heaven eroding in XJP as "troubles within and without" increase.

https://dailycaller.com/2022/06/19/opin ... rry-chang/
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ArjunPandit »

bala wrote:China constructs new airport in Xinjiang region, stirs controversy

https://infra.economictimes.indiatimes. ... y/92241925
16 June, 2022
Beijing: A new airport constructed by China in the Xinjiang region has stirred controversy that whether "it is defense? attack? development? or something else". China completed the construction of high-altitude dual-use (military and airfield) in Tashkurgan in the Xinjiang region, reported Investigative Journalism Reportika.Tashkurgan Airport is 3,258 m above sea level, making it one of China's highest airports and the first high plateau airport in Xinjiang. The airport is expected to fully open in July 2022.
cant find that in map..but the town is not very far from kashgar ..and wakhan corridor
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

ORF article on splits in Chinese leadership.

https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/ ... as-system/
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

On the contrary, I think rehabilitation of Li KeQiang shows Xi Jinping is reducing internal friction with Jiang Zemin group. Presenting a united face in run up to 20th Congress.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ldev »

China is attempting to change what constitutes an international waterway as defined by UNCLOS. It's next aim will be to turn the South China Sea between it's fortified bases on the Sprattly Reefs and mainland China into a Chinese lake!!

China is threatening to close the Taiwan Strait
“There is no such thing as international waters in international maritime law,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin asserted this week. “Relevant countries claim that the Taiwan Strait is in international waters with the aim to manipulate the Taiwan question and threaten China’s sovereignty.”

Taiwan, an island democracy of 23 million people, disagrees.

But China’s Chairman Xi Jinping has just signed into law a similar power to that exercised by Russian President Vladimir Putin over Ukraine.

It allows “special military operations” to not constitute formal war. And that means Beijing may be preparing to dramatically increase its aggressive behaviour in the East and South China Seas – and around Taiwan.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by SSridhar »

It is for this reason alone, among others, that Taiwan needs to be a separate country.

This has to be seen in the context of the new maritime laws that PRC proclaimed last year giving extended power to its coast guard and maritime militia to use 'all necessary means' to defend China's 'sovereignty and maritime rights'. These are vague terms and China will interpret them according to its convenience. This is how it has always behaved in international disputes by being deliberately vague.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

XJP reiterates support for Russia at Virtual BRICS meeting

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News ... 655928610/
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

Apparent demotion of Chinese diplomat for overt support to Russia.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diploma ... ter-signal
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

Article logic is complicated but implies the Guangdong faction is unhappy with XJP endorsing Russia. Reason could be the inflation misery due to prolonged Ukraine War.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by chetak »

The five principles, as stated in the sino–Indian agreement of 1954 and formulated by the well known cheeni zhou enlai, the snake oil salesman and collectively known as panchsheel treaty are listed as:

1. mutual respect for each other's territorial integrity and sovereignty,
2. mutual non-aggression,
3. mutual non-interference in each other's internal affairs,
4. equality and co-operation for mutual benefit, and
5. peaceful co-existence
this turned out to be a lies filled crock of schitt and completely fooled neverwho who was keen on building his international image as a "man of peace", possibly while obsequiously slithering his way to the nobel peace prize, which he no doubt hoped that his country cousins the britshits would help arrange for him, their ever humble servant and family retainer of long standing.

Now, during the recent BRICS summit, another snake oil salesman and practiced cheeni charlatan wang yi, seems to have put forward 4 principles for enhancing the cooperation between both India and cheenistan.

one presumes that the 5 earlier principles have now reduced to four, either due to the recession in cheen or perhaps due to poor growth and economic conditions now prevailing in the middle kingdom and the sons of heaven are tightening their belts.

The first one is “following the important strategic consensus”. This is particularly critical as it effectively means the consensus on borders should be followed in letter and spirit.

In the 2nd principle, wang asked India to recognise that “cheeni and India are not competitors, but partners”. Building on these two aforementioned principles, Wang put forward the next two principles and urged India to expand “mutually beneficial cooperation” and “expand multilateral cooperation”.

what wang yi is so politely saying is unmistakable.

He is saying: this is a stick up, hand over everything in your pockets and then hand over all your clothes and shoes too.

All please note that the missing principle is "mutual respect for each other's territorial integrity and sovereignty" which is an perhaps an outmoded concept in today's modern cheenistan.

the normally inscrutable cheeni are actually coming across as anxious and that is increasingly being seen in the tone and tenor of their public pronouncements as well as their disquieted ravings regarding taiwan, and moreover, their ukrainian misstep seems to have partially unhinged them, especially after Jaishankar's surefooted diplomacy managed to rattle many a gora cage.

BTW, following the cheeni invitation to talk, on the sidelines of the BRICS meeting, India ideally would have been represented by it's Foreign minister Jaishankar but instead India sent it's ambassador for the meeting with the cheeni foreign minister.

That, by itself would have constituted an unprecedented and sharp departure from normal diplomatic practice and all that went with such a deliberate and insulting act.

wang yi and the cheeni would have been livid beyond belief.

When cheeni foreign minister wang yi visited India recently, he was not permitted an audience with PM Modi but the Foreign Minister of Russia, Sergey Lavrov who arrived in dilli after wang yi, was welcomed cordially by Modi who made the time for him.

All embassies in dilli including their respective foreign govts would have taken notice of this deliberate snub.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

A series of Tweets that show XJP nomination is not so sure-shot



https://twitter.com/geoff_p_wade/status ... QJHaQ_ZLfQ
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by SSridhar »

ramana wrote:A series of Tweets that show XJP nomination is not so sure-shot
https://twitter.com/geoff_p_wade/status ... QJHaQ_ZLfQ
While there would always be some element of uncertainty in any totalitarian regime due to palace intrigues, I do not think that Xi faces any serious challenge at all.

He has already been elevated to the same pedestal as Mao in the 19th Congress with his XJP Thoughts. A few months back, the CPC appointed him unanimously as a delegate for the 20th Congress, which is an endorsement of his third term. Since c. 2021 especially, a great purge has been going on to remove any feigned opposition to Xi, at all levels. Tens of thousands have been purged, as is always the case in China.

The tweet says that the Central Party meeting preparing the agenda for the 20th Congress decided that the two-term limit on party and state leaders will NOT be changed (who might this be referring to?). Age limits for leaders will NOT be changed. I have two reasons to disbelieve that this is aimed at XJP if that was being hinted at.

Even granting that this information is true, one can be pretty sure that such a meeting would have been convened *ONLY* under XJP's direct supervision or at least one of his closest confidantes. It is impossible that such resolutions were discussed for the 20th Congress behind the back of XJP. Otherwise, it is already a palace coup. It would be doubtful if those and their cohorts who drafted this remain alive today. The only other possibility is that XJP’s failing health meant that he felt that he would not be there (or be able to lead) for a fourth term in c. 2027 or even complete the third term and therefore he wants to restore the original term and age limits. If he chooses a successor now, then we would know that such was the reasoning.

Secondly, the two-term limit clause was removed not in the 19th Congress but in the Plenum which was held five or six months after the Congress. That removal applied to the President and the Vice President. It may be that the Central Party meeting was emphasizing a wide-ranging and stricter implementation of the two-term and Age limits extending it to provincial party leaders and others. This would have been at XJP's behest, perhaps, to strengthen his legal hand. But, of course, like the grand poobah, he himself is above such man-made laws.

The Vice FM & Xinjiang Party Chief's removal is tactical and they continue to be close to XJP. They will be suitably reinstated/rehabilitated when the time comes.

On the question of “Outline of Non-Warfare Military Operations by the Armed Forces (Trial)” which is aka MOOTW (Military Operations Other Than War), and the earlier Coast Guard Law, it is very clear that these are part of the Legal Warfare to takeover Taiwan. I am not sure if the disquiet in Beijing, being referred to in the tweet, is among the foreign diplomats based there.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

Good analysis.
It could be usual FUD spread by Wastern diplomats.

"Inscrutable Oriental" and all that.

I think as of this time XJP will get his third term.
He got a good BRICS summit, virtual but with Ukraine and COVID that's the best outcome.


July to October will be critical before the November Congress.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

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Officials vie to offer pledges of loyalty to Chinese President Xi Jinping ahead of 20th Party Congress - South China Morning Post
Senior officials in the Communist Party around the country are lavishing praise on President Xi Jinping in the final run-up of the 20th Party Congress, using words such as “beacon”, “compass” and “fulcrum” to refer to his status.

The acclaim comes months before China’s important political event when Xi is expected to kick off his third term as the party’s leader, and the party is expected to see a new leadership line-up.

Lou Yangsheng, party boss of Henan province, said on Wednesday Xi’s political theory should be taken as a “lifelong lesson” by local officials, and called for an “item-by-item” and effective implementation of Xi’s instructions.

In an article published on the front page of Study Times, a publication from the Central Party School, Lou also called for “remembering the lingxiu’s instructions”.

Lingxiu is a reverential term for “leader” that was common during the era of Mao Zedong and his successor Hua Guofeng more than three decades ago, but has rarely been used since the late 1970s.

In the past two months, at least nine provincial party chiefs, including Lou, have written long articles in party publications extolling Xi and pledging loyalty to him.

Regional chiefs are a major talent pool from which the party picks its top leaders and many of those who recently threw their lot in with Xi are considered front runners to join the 25-strong Politburo, the party’s decision-making body.

Five years ago, similar admiration from senior officials was accorded Xi in the run-up to and during the 19th Party Congress, which took place in October 2017.

But such praise did not always guarantee a promotion, or even absolute protection. Among the commendations, Liu Shiyu, chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said Xi “saved the party, saved the military and saved the country”. But Liu was the subject of a corruption probe in 2019 and later demoted.

This year, with the date of the 20th Party Congress yet to be announced and Xi likely to secure an unprecedented third term as the party’s boss, waves of praise have already started.

As part of preparations for the 20th Party Congress in autumn, provincial party congress meetings are under way across the country to confirm their own delegations to the party congress. The provincial process is set to end by late June, with few constituency groups, including Shanghai, still to wrap up.

These provincial party congresses are important occasions to pledge support.

Li Hongzhong, party secretary of Tianjin, called on cadres in his report to the Tianjin party congress on June 17 to love Xi “emotionally” as well as following his instructions.

Li Xi, party secretary of Guangdong, in his report to the provincial congress on May 22, said Xi “has a keen insight into every matter” which had helped the province overcome hardship in the past.

During a meeting in Jiangxi province this month, party secretary Yi Lianhong called for integration of the “two upholds” – the status of Xi as the “core” and the authority of the Central Committee – “into the blood and cast into the soul”.

In addition to this public rhetoric in praise of Xi, officials around the country have found other ways to magnify their support. Nanning, the capital of Guangxi region in southern China, has not only been handing out free copies of a book of Xi quotes, but last month held several reading sessions of the pocket-sized red book.

In Fujian in southeastern China, local authorities held an exhibition on Xi’s leadership when he was head of the province decades ago.

The acclaim for Xi comes amid a looming crisis of economic growth and a high unemployment rate affected by China’s zero-Covid policy, as well as international headwinds, including China-US relations further strained by the Ukraine War.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

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So all the ducks are being aligned.
Lots of key facts in above article.

Advance praise in runup to the 20th Congress for which date is not set.

Regional party chiefs aka the provinicals are supporting the Emperor so no revolt.

Cult of XJP is mirroring Mao Zedong: Lingxiu, emotional connect, and pocket red book of quotes etc
Praise does not ensure safety from anti-Corruption sickle.

Provincial delegates will be wraped up by end of June.
A key milestone to firm up 20 the Congress date.
So far Beijing Olympics, BRICS meeting, Troika done.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

First a book review:
Question of India and the Transformation of Geopolitics in Qing China
Matthew Mosca
Between the mid-eighteenth and mid-nineteenth centuries, Qing rulers, officials, and scholars fused diverse, fragmented perceptions of foreign territory into one integrated worldview. In the same period, a single "foreign" policy emerged as an alternative to the many localized "frontier" policies hitherto pursued on the coast, in Xinjiang, and in Tibet. By unraveling Chinese, Manchu, and British sources to reveal the information networks used by the Qing empire to gather intelligence about its emerging rival, British India, this book explores China's altered understanding of its place in a global context. Far from being hobbled by a Sinocentric worldview, Qing China's officials and scholars paid close attention to foreign affairs. To meet the growing British threat, they adapted institutional practices and geopolitical assumptions to coordinate a response across their maritime and inland borderlands. In time, the new and more active response to Western imperialism built on this foundation reshaped not only China's diplomacy but also the internal relationship between Beijing and its frontiers.
The failure of Nehruvian policy or maybe the shortcoming was being unable to convince Maoist China that India was not British India and should not be foisted with the sins of British India which started the Century of Humiliation and the destruction of the Qing Dynasty.
I submit the border disputed since 1958 are due to Chinese misperception of India as a continuation of British India.
Nehruji became the pinata or whipping boy for Chinese outrage against British India.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by rsingh »

Wasn't XI elected for life?
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

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ramana wrote:Question of India and the Transformation of Geopolitics in Qing China
Matthew Mosca
Far from being hobbled by a Sinocentric worldview, Qing China's officials and scholars paid close attention to foreign affairs. To meet the growing British threat, they adapted institutional practices and geopolitical assumptions to coordinate a response across their maritime and inland borderlands. In time, the new and more active response to Western imperialism built on this foundation reshaped not only China's diplomacy but also the internal relationship between Beijing and its frontiers.

In my view, it is not only the British. Of course, they were the most belligerent because the import of tea from China was causing them monetary concerns.

The Chinese had concerns from many sides. Commander Mathew Perry had ordered the opening up of the Japanese ports that had been closed for 300 years for foreigners. The Meiji Restoration and closer Japanese-American cooperation were of concern to China. Later, the Americans displaced the Spanish from the Philippines. The Emperor of Hawaii, during his world tour, had forewarned the Qing about the expanding American interests much earlier but the Qing had not taken it seriously. Now the threat was at doorsteps. Then, the Chinese had to give concessions to many European countries. The Japanese decisively defeated the Chinese military in Korea in the dying years of the 19th century and occupied Korea. The Chinese North Fleet, Beiyang, was decimated by the Japanese and they were within range of Beijing. The Qing had to agree to part with Ryukyu, Formosa and Korea and even open ports for Japanese trade. To their horror, the Chinese found that the Ryukyu Kingdom had secretly become a Japanese vassal state 200 years back and the Qing were blithely unaware of this !! The Russians were expanding to the east and also to the south. Later, the French destroyed the Southern fleet, Nanyang. The Japanese also defeated the Russian Far East Fleet as well as the Black Sea fleet. The Japanese were politically helped by the British because of Great Game 1.0. The Sino-Japanese hostility is enduring and civilizational.

So, the Qing had a lot to worry about regarding international relations. All the Barbarians were proving a handful and the Middle Kingdom had no answer. Soon, a campaign would start among the Hans that the foreigners, the Manchus, were responsible for all the ills of the Empire and they needed to go, which eventually happened.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

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China is building a yuan currency reserve to compete with the dollar and prop up other economies facing volatility
The People's Bank of China is building a yuan reserve with five other nations in collaboration with the Bank for International Settlements.

China is teaming up with Indonesia, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Chile, with each contributing 15 billion yuan, about $2.2 billion, to the Renminbi Liquidity Arrangement, China's central bank said in a statement Saturday.

"When in need of liquidity, participating central banks would not only be able to draw down on their contributions, but would also gain access to additional funding through a collateralised liquidity window," the bank said.

According to the report, the funds will be stored with the Bank for International Settlements.

Russia and China have been attempting to develop a new reserve currency with other BRICS countries, Russian President Vladimir Putin said last week.

The basket of currencies would present a US-dominated International Monetary Fund alternative and include contributions from Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.

"The matter of creating the international reserve currency based on the basket of currencies of our countries is under review," Putin told the BRICS Business Forum on Wednesday, according to a TASS report. "We are ready to openly work with all fair partners."

Meanwhile, China's foreign-exchange reserves — the world's largest — grew last month for the first time in 2022, state data showed. The nation's reserves rose by $80.6 billion to reach $3.13 trillion.

At the same time, the US dollar has hit a 20-year high in recent weeks.

In March, reports emerged of a Saudi oil deal priced in yuan. An economist told Insider that a deal done without dollars could signal unease in relying too heavily on the US currency.

"While any deal would be symbolic, the Chinese are not alone in the search for a nondollar reserve currency," Aleksandar Tomic previously told Insider. "Other countries' need for dollars exposes them to the US financial sector, and consequently gives the US political leverage."
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

You are describing the events in Century of Humiliation. (COH)

Basically Qing collapse was a disaster for Chinese as foreigners heaped indignities on the people : land occupied, unequal trade, drugs pushed. Conquest without battles.
Basically the Court and scholars collapsed.
The scholars created the Republic after the dynasty abdicated. Yet in a few years warlords took over the rural China.
Mao channeled the rural and overthrew Confucius order in name of Marxism.
Traders were marginal anyway.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

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ramana wrote:You are describing the events in Century of Humiliation. (COH)
ramana, while what the Chinese (and others) mean by the CoH is the occupation of parts of China by Western & Japanese forces, the concessions extracted for trading, the ceding of ports, the suspension of Chinese laws in the parts of the cities where the Westerners lived, the propagation of X'tianinty by the missionaries, the destruction of the Yuan Mingyuan palace, the gunboats sailing up-and-down the Yangtse, the siege of Beijing etc., there are other external events of great significance happening around them which increased their insecurity too. I have highlighted some of them like Hawaii, Philippines, Ryukyu, the French occupation of Annam (Vietnam), and the Japanese defeat of the Russian Navy.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

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I read the speeches by Republic of China intellectual Hu Shih. He puts all those acts in the CoH.
Qing order collapsed due to the indignities heaped on ordinary Chinese.

Specifically COH period is 1839-1949.
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