Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by ramana »

https://t.co/MSx82yFAs8

Another Nikki article on the inner clash between XJP and Jiang supporters in People's Daily

Analysis: When China's leading paper ignores Xi, all bets are off
Commentary piece extols Deng Xiaoping and successors but not Mao Zedong


KATSUJI NAKAZAWA, Nikkei senior staff writer
DECEMBER 23, 2021 04:04 JST

Katsuji Nakazawa is a Tokyo-based senior staff writer and editorial writer at Nikkei. He spent seven years in China as a correspondent and later as China bureau chief. He was the 2014 recipient of the Vaughn-Ueda International Journalist prize.

Something unusual is occurring in China.

This became evident when a commentary was published in the People's Daily, the mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party, without a single mention of Xi Jinping, the party's general secretary and nation's president. For an article titled "Learning deeply about the spirit of the Sixth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party," one would assume Xi would be part of the discussion.

After all, the four-day session held last month adopted a new "resolution on history" that showered praise on Xi.

Instead, the commentary heaped praise on the late paramount leader Deng Xiaoping, referring to him by name nine times. The reform and opening-up policy that Deng implemented in the 1970s was "a great awakening of the Party," the commentary says.

Deng also "liberated people's thoughts from the long-running constraint of leftist dogmatism," according to the piece by Qu Qingshan, president of the Institute of Party History and Literature of the Central Committee of the Communist Party.


This expression is harshly critical of the mistakes made by Mao Zedong that led to the disastrous Cultural Revolution from 1966 to 1976. The piece stops just short of lashing out at Mao's cult of personality -- a move that would have been, in effect, an implicit criticism of the concentration of power in Xi's hands.

That the commentary also details the achievements by Xi's two predecessors, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, both of whom remained on Deng's reform path, makes clear the point Qu was trying to make. Jiang and Hu made China the second-biggest economy, top exporter and the world's factory, Qu said.

The article implies that since the Xi Jinping era began in 2012, China has lived on the leftovers from the wonderful feast prepared by Deng, Jiang and Hu.


What is noteworthy is Qu's position. The president of the Institute of Party History and Literature is a heavyweight whose key role is the interpretation of party history. By definition, he would have also been deeply involved in the compilation of the recently passed "resolution on history," which attempts to portray Xi as surpassing Deng in terms of status.


In a commentary for the People's Daily, Qu Qingshan praised Deng Xiaoping's achievements but did not mention Xi Jinping. What does this mean? © Getty Images

Furthermore, Qu is a sitting member of the Central Committee, equivalent to a cabinet minister. A participant of last month's sixth plenum, Qu is well aware of the current atmosphere hanging over the party.

"Two camps of thought exist in the party," one source said. "Historically speaking, it is always better when there is a healthy debate within the party."

Qu's article elicited a quick counterattack. Four days after it was published, the People's Daily ran an article by Jiang Jinquan, director of the Policy Research Office of the Party Central Committee, on the same theory page.

Titled "Upholding the party's overall leadership," the commentary praises Xi's policies and echoes the third resolution on history in attacking the distributism and liberalism that preceded the current leader.


Discussing the party's overall leadership boils down to nothing short of defending the concentration of power in Xi's hands.

Jiang's article, unlike Qu's, completely ignores Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao. Mao makes two appearances, and Xi is mentioned by name six times.

The People's Daily is dubbed "the throat and tongue" of the party. The two articles hint at two ideological camps within the party, with those supporting the path of Deng, Jiang and Hu on one side, and those behind Mao and Xi on the other.

One major rift is likely over the third resolution on history, which many say carries huge contradictions.

Jiang Jinquan was only tapped as head of the Policy Research Office last year. He is not a Central Committee member and thus ranks lower than Qu.

But at this stage, it is hard to say which of the two theoreticians represents the mainstream view.

What is important is that the struggle over political lines is closely linked to the formulation of actual economic policies.


Qu's article was published on Dec. 9, during the Central Economic Work Conference, which discusses economic policies for the following year. Xi and Premier Li Keqiang attended.

The commentary put pressure on the conference to continue with the policy of reform and opening-up.


Speaking at an economic forum in early December, prominent economist Li Daokui, an adviser to Premier Li, made important remarks on this issue. He warned against economic optimism, citing receding domestic demand.

Harsh conditions will greet the Chinese economy in the coming years, the economist said. Over the next five years, China will face its most difficult period since the policy of reform and opening-up was put into effect four decades ago, he added.

His remarks came at a sensitive time and provoked wide repercussions.

The five years Li Daokui referred to overlap with Xi's upcoming term, presuming Xi remains China's top leader at the party's next national congress, not quite a year from now.

The economic picture Li Daokui painted was grim. Property prices will be in structural decline, and local governments will have to deal with tight finances, he said. The education and entertainment industries will have to contend with new regulations.

As a long-term prescription for boosting domestic demand, Li Daokui presented a Li Keqiang-style policy of "integrating urban and rural areas."

The 58-year-old scholar heads the Academic Center for Chinese Economic Practice and Thinking at Tsinghua University. He also serves as a member of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, the country's top political advisory body. He has an influential voice.

Meanwhile, interesting remarks also came from former Finance Minister Lou Jiwei, who revealed that Chinese statistics do not reflect negative changes in the economy. His words caused a stir because they came immediately after the Central Economic Work Conference.

Lou essentially said China's economic figures, including the country's growth rate for 2021, which is to be announced early next year, omit anything negative.

He is a "reformist" close to former Premier Zhu Rongji, who was tapped by Deng to reform state-owned companies in the 1990s. As Lou has kept a delicate distance from Xi's economic line, his latest remarks are meaningful.

A statement issued after the recent Central Economic Work Conference used the Chinese character that means "stability" as many as 25 times. The repetitiveness, though, implies instability in the Chinese economy.

The statement and remarks by Li Daokui and Lou Jiwei give clues to how severe China's current economic situation is. So does the announcement on Monday that China is trimming interest rates for the first time in one year and eight months.


China is experiencing a political battle between adherents to Mao-Xi thought and a group that raises the banner of reform and opening-up. (Photo by Ken Kobayashi)

Amid swirling rumors that Qu might have drawn ire from Xi for praising the reform and opening-up policy, Xi quickly moved to tighten his grip on party members.

The leader issued an important instruction to all party members at a national meeting on the work of the party's internal regulations, using his unique vocabulary, such as "centralized and unified leadership," "long-term governance" and "the country's enduring prosperity and stability."

The instruction was conveyed by Ding Xuexiang, head of the party's General Office, a close aide to Xi and a skilled administrator.

The struggle over political lines is playing out between the Mao-Xi disciples, who prefer the concentration of political power, and the Deng-Jiang-Hu believers, who raise the banner of reform and opening-up.

The third resolution of history, which reflects Xi's ambitions to overtake Deng, has reignited this political struggle, which has also become a battle over how to deal with China's conspicuously slowing economy.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by kancha »

Adding on to the thoughts above..

I too have been mulling over the nature of the beast for the past few days. What we see is the CCP and the PRC as they exist today. However, what we fail to see is the CCP being just another dynasty amongst the two dozen or so that have ruled over China in the past. Technically speaking, the CCP is very close to, or already past the average time that these dynasties ruled over China. If they could fall, so will the CCP.
Secondly, comparing the PRC with the Mughal Empire in India (Disclaimer: On no other parameter than the territory ruled!), we see that the sixth in line of the dynasty, Aurangzeb, took the empire to its zenith in terms of landmass directly ruled. Now wrt PRC, Xi is the fifth major ruler (not counting the years of chaos post Mao and then Tianenmen) and the area ruled by the PRC is just about as big as it can get, not counting the salami slicing etc, because all the major neighbours that they could grab, have already been grabbed. Aurangzeb, when on his deathbed, would have already been seeing his own empire straining to break away right before his eyes. In the case of PRC too, pieces are being put into place for militarily challenging the PLA in not so distant future, IMO, and Xi et al would be fools not to see this.
Lastly, the USSR lasted just about 74 years from 1917 to 1991. The PRC completes its 74 years in 2024. Incidentally, that also coincides with the fourth turning of the saecular cycle in respect of the USA as well.
All in all, the world as we know it, is in for a major churning in the not so distant future.
JMTs
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by ramana »

SS any updates from the Indian think tanks on XJP?
Its mostly silence and reading foreign reports.
Even Hindu is silent except to post articles.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

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https://danwang.co/2021-letter/

A non-Western, but balanced view of China today from one who lives there. I was told that this person's views are worth following.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by nishant.gupta »

Anoop wrote:https://danwang.co/2021-letter/

A non-Western, but balanced view of China today from one who lives there. I was told that this person's views are worth following.
Amazingly detailed and insightful article! Thank you for sharing.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

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ramana wrote:SS any updates from the Indian think tanks on XJP?
Its mostly silence and reading foreign reports.
Even Hindu is silent except to post articles.
Sorry for the late response, Ramana.

It looks like XJP has consolidated his position and whatever little opposition was there has been smothered. It will be a ritual in October/November whenever the Party Congress happens. This seems to be the distilled opinion.

The year 2023/2024 will be a massive year for Taiwan, it appears. XJP is convinced that the US retreat is well and truly irreversible. Year 2024 is election year and therefore lame duck governments in almost all major powers opposed to China. The 2022 Congress will boost XJP's ego and aggressive determination even more.

For us specifically, Xi is determined to make Karakoram (or trans-Karakoram to its west) as the border in Ladakh. New claims are coming up that Hunza (in Gilgit) belongs to China (neither India nor Pakistan).
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by Anoop »

https://youtu.be/tJjJXiM1g9U

Poster DavidD had remarked that Xi Jinping was feted for his handling of the Covid outbreak. I wonder if that still holds after way authorities handled the recent outbreak n in Xi'an. It's really sad to see people being forced out of their homes at 3 am with 1 hour notice and forced to stay in tunnels, in some cases.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by ramana »

Thanks SS for the inputs.
Let me think about it.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

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Anoop
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

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VinodTK wrote:^^^Link is not working for me. Anoop please try now
Thank you, Vinod, it is working now.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by SSridhar »

ramana wrote:Thanks SS for the inputs.
Let me think about it.
Of course, one faint hope is Wang Qishan, now VP and earlier the anti-corruption czar in Xi's first term.
He is the Edgar Hoover that Xi could, if at all, fear. Ideally, Xi should get rid of him like he has done every conceivable threat so far.
Will he, won't he or he doesn't need to are questions hanging fire.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by SSridhar »

Xi Jinping's New Security Satraps - Jayadev Ranade, Vivekananda International Foundation
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

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SSridhar wrote:Xi Jinping's New Security Satraps - Jayadev Ranade, Vivekananda International Foundation
The above analysis highlights the changes in the security hierarchy in China being made in the run-up to the 20th Congress.
Essentially three appointments were made.

Wang Xiaohong (64) eventually replaces Zhao Kezhi(68). He is a close friend of XJP and his biography looks like a policeman.
There are, additionally, signs of enhanced political activity, albeit subterranean, which suggest that Xi’s opponents are active thus raising the stakes. Clear pointers were the charges levelled against former Vice Minister of Public Security Sun Lijun which included “forming gangs” and even “causing extreme danger to the political security [of the party]” – code for Xi! The uncertainty implies that Xi will not give even a hint of weakness by relaxing policies. This includes his aggressive foreign policy which will continue to pose a risk for China’s neighbours.
Chen Yixin (63) is already Secy general of the Committee and could be another candidate to replace Zhao Kezhi.
In April 2020, Chen Yixin initiated a thorough ‘rectification’ of the entire security apparatus, comprising the MPS, MoSS, Central Political and Legal Committee, Supervisory Commission, Procuratorate etc, which he described as “a self-restoration with the blade inward and bone scraping to cure the poison”.
So he undertook the reform of the security system but is not a policeman.

Chen Wenqing,(62) is another potential for replacing Zhao Kezhi.
Chen Wenqing is a professional security cadre and well acquainted with the central security apparatus after Xi named him Deputy Director of the Central State Security Office, part of the new Central State Security Commission (CSSC) set up by Xi to tighten party oversight of the security apparatus, in May 2018.
---------------
My thinking is that XJP is overhauling the security system with his trusted people as a run-up to 20th Congress.
He is using the upcoming retirement of the incumbent.
The bigger picture is there is internal turmoil in China.

The old saying"trouble within, trouble without' applies here.
Trouble within:
- Internal political turmoil due to the third term as it upsets the succession apple cart
- Chinese economy (trade sanctions, fall in exports, and real estate in trouble Evergrande etc.)
- Resurgent COVID pandemic leading to lockdowns of major cities.
- Perennial corruption problem since historical times
- und so weiter...

Trouble without:
- Trade pacts/agreements stalled with US and India like RCEP
- Kazakhstan trouble impacts BRI as a secondary effect
- Many border confrontations with neighbors (India, Philippines, Japan, Vietnam)
- Constant Western press reports feeding the old Western fear of China. "Fu Manchu syndrome"
- und so weiter...

The biggest factor is power is concentrated with one individual just like in Empires.
- Bad thing is decisions could be a surprise to the world. Recent history shows Mao Zedong was quite arbitrary.
- Good thing is it prevents leadership stasis like during the Tianan Mein Square uprising.

In the past West had philosophers guiding Kings. (Eg. Aristotle guiding Alexander)
While in the past China had scholars guiding Emperors. (eg. Zhuge Liang guiding the Three kingdom period)
After the 1912 revolution, the scholars were 're-educated' and traditional learning pushed back.
As I said long back, what China needs is a scholar Emperor who exercises beingn oversight yet is forceful in acting within China.
One good thing is XJP in 19th Congress said he wants to Sinicize Marxism which is to make it Chinese nationalism. And he is well-grounded in Chinese classics which is lost on the US experts.
When China faces problems, the leaders revert to lessons from the past guided by "Remember the past as a guide to the future!"
Yes, the past is not the future but serves as a template.

XJP is a square peg in a round hole.
The last few years have shown some of the corners have rounded. ( Eg. XJP fits the mold of CPC leaders)
Yet he is trying to make the hole also a square! (Eg. XJP is trying to Sinicize Marxism)

Here the analogy is the "hole" is Communist China and the "square-peg" is classical Chinese leadership.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

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https://twitter.com/PDChina/status/1481 ... 7HCDQ&s=19


Sun Lijun, former vice minister of China’s public security, has been prosecuted over charges of taking bribes, manipulating the stock market and illegal possession of firearms, said the Supreme People's Procuratorate on Thursday. https://t.co/Nem7EqTqBe
#TroubleWithin
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by VinodTK »

Gravitas: 3 videos China doesn't want you to see

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wusdDE1jgw8
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by Anoop »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DU2qm7Ex330
Hegang, a city in China’s Heilongjiang Province, was once made famous overnight for it’s extremely low real estate prices. Now, it has once again made news, this time for another reason. On December 23 of 2021, the Hegang human resources bureau announced their new fiscal restructuring plan. In it, they announced that they would stop hiring government staff. Although deleted shortly after, the words “fiscal restructuring” caught the attention of many, as the term was more or less a euphemism for what is essentially financial bankruptcy. Due to the lack of precedence, there is no official Chinese term to describe this financial situation, thus, it is for the meantime referred to as “fiscal reorganization”.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by ramana »

A 20 page paper by former NSA Shivsankar Menon in the Institute of Chinese Studies published in Dec 2021.

https://www.icsin.org/uploads/2022/01/2 ... 08c946.pdf

He lists the internal factors driving China's external policy.
Of them, I think Internal Stability and rising Chinese nationalism should have gotten more space.

Page 9
All in all, the legitimacy of Chinese Communist Party rule has shifted over time — from ideology to
economic growth, and now increasingly to nationalism, ultra-nationalism, or nativism.
5
Performance legitimacy, which has traditionally played such an important role in China, may have weakened in the face of a slowing economy and social inequality. In this situation, external pressure plays into the
regime’s need for an external focus to consolidate domestic support for the regime.
This is the famous "Trouble within, trouble without!" maxim in China.

I disagree that performance legitimacy has weakened for these are modern words for the Mandate of Heaven rubric. I submit XJP internal and external moves are to ensure MOH stays with the CPC dynasty. Just as Deng invoked Chinese ethnic identity to keep the PRC together in the wake of the Tianan Mein Square riots.

Also, China historically was conscious of ethnic identity Han in particular.
Mao Zedong emphasized class struggle and subsumed Chinese ethnic identity in the People's Republic.
However, Deng in response to Tianmen Square revived Chinese ethnic identity to preserve the PRC.


This is like ZA Bhutto's Nazare-ya- Pakistan in the 1970s.

XJPs Sinicisation of Marxism is another milestone on that journey started by Deng.

One more point that SSM should have made is the deep learning of Chinese classics by both Mao and XJP.
This frames their historical view of China.

Our scholars look at China through Western eyes and not what the Chinese say about themselves.
Western eyes before Communism was to overthrow the Imperial dynasty.
Communism took over, for China is historically authoritarian in order to preserve order or stability.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

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Older Nov 2020 paper on India-China Relations.

Good read for why Galwan?

https://www.icsin.org/uploads/2020/12/1 ... 127ca8.pdf
Since 2012, India-China relations have deteriorated, after a prolonged period of successfully
managing the relationship after the Cold War. The signs of increasing tension were evident.
Border incidents became more frequent and larger in scale with Depsang in 2013, Chumar in
2014, and Doklam in 2017, and each proved harder to resolve. China abandoned her public
neutrality on India-Pakistan issues, and committed to building the CPEC on Indian territory
under Pakistani occupation in Kashmir, creating a Chinese stake in a continued Pakistani hold.
China opposed Indian membership in the NSG in 2015, a shift from her going along with the
consensus on the NSG exemption for India in 2008. China is increasingly involved in the politics
of our neighbours in the subcontinent. The PLA has a semi-permanent presence in the Indian
Ocean, China has a military base at Djibouti on that ocean, and controls a string of ports in the
IOR from Gwadar to Hambantota to Khyaukpyu that could serve its military purposes.

China too has grievances. One is that India was the first and only invitee to respond negatively to
Xi Jinping’s signature Belt and Road Initiative. As US-China relations deteriorated, India’s ties
with the US strengthened, particularly in defence, and India revived the Quad and committed to a
free and open Indo-Pacific, concepts that China has regarded with suspicion and opposed.

As a consequence of a strained relationship, India and China are developing negative narratives
on the history of India-China interactions. India and China have lived in separate multiverses in
geopolitical terms for most of history. While exchanging goods, people, ideas and learning, they
did not impact each other’s politics or security until the second half of the 20th century. So
attitudes to each other could be pure narrative, based on selected literary sources or historical
evidence, untrammeled by fact or experience. The media in each country engages in a form of
navel-gazing, solipsistically studying each other’s statements rather than the reality of India China interactions.
and
Since the immediate trigger for the crisis is the change in Chinese behaviour, it is probably in
China itself, its internal stresses and leadership, and its perception of the outside world, that we
should look for primary explanations.


China is in the midst of a triple transition or learning: For the first time in China’s history, she is
powerful and dependent on the rest of the world for commodities, energy and markets, she is
trying to become a maritime power, and she is entangled in disputes along her eastern, southern
and south-eastern periphery.

China displays both great confidence and a sense of victimhood at the same time. Vice Premier
and politburo member Liu He said recently that, “Bad things are turning into good ones,”
referring to China’s success in suppressing Covid and in recovering growth in the economy in
the last quarter. The global pandemic and economic crash have left China relatively better off
than all the other major powers, which are internally preoccupied and diminished. China too has
suffered considerable loss of reputation and economic harm, but less than the others. However,
the US election campaign has probably been the final proof for Chinese leaders that China-US
contention is now structural and that their relationship is turning increasingly antagonistic,
despite economic co-dependence.
All in all, it could be a combination of Chinese hubris,
awareness of a deteriorating external situation, hard times ahead, internal leadership and
economic stresses, all at the same time which explains China’s recent behaviour which shades
from assertiveness to aggression.
SSM lays out the strategic or global factors that serve as background to China's recent behavior.

However, with China, it is the tactical/military factors that trigger action.

I submit 1) the collapse of Pakistan as a viable foil to India, 2) the massive mandate for NaMo 2.0, 3) the lack of progress with Mammalapuram talks on trade agreements, 4) growing India-US ties that led to the decision to teach a lesson just like in 1962.
As Luttwak says in a 1,2,3 order the #2 will attack #3 to prevent #1 and #3 from combining.
This is a replay of 1962 aggression without firearms.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by Anoop »

Last edited by ramana on 23 Jan 2022 23:11, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Edited by ramana.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

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Folks we need to be focused in our research. We don't have access to Chinese language media and most can't read anyway.
So the next best is to get an eclectic collection of ELM journals etc to get a wide sense of the Chinese panorama.
I read Beijing Review, Foreign Affairs, and publications of Indian China study groups.
It would help if MEA releases the China Conference reports to get a broad understanding.

Like this one:
Presented at the 14th All-India China Studies Conference, Shantiniketan, 11th November 2021
Please post news articles oped from wide sources like RT, SCMP, Sidney Herald, Nikkei, etc.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

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Fo example Beijing Review:

www.bjreview.com
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

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SSridhar,
Reports say XJP is biggest risk to Chinese Economy

https://m.economictimes.com/news/intern ... 070181.cms


Your thoughts?
Will post mine soon giving historical backround.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by ramana »

Window on current China:

https://www.readingthechinadream.com/
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by ramana »

Book review on
Collapse: The Fall of the Soviet Union
By Vladislav M. Zubok

Now apply to the leadership after Deng Xiaoping to Xi Jinping and what they are trying to prevent.
By Maria Lipman
Zubok’s meticulous chronicle covering the years of Mikhail Gorbachev’s reforms in the 1980s and early 1990s passes exceptionally harsh judgment on the last Soviet leader. He lauds Gorbachev’s vision of global affairs but does not hold back when it comes to criticism: Gorbachev had a poor understanding of the Soviet economy and launched ill-conceived economic reforms. Zubok condemns Gorbachev for radically weakening the Communist Party apparatus, the Soviet Union’s only effective governing mechanism, which eventually left him to powerlessly watch his country’s demise. The book offers an impressive close-up of the hectic political and diplomatic activities between August 1991, the time of the failed Communist coup, and December of that year, when the Soviet Union formally ceased to exist. Throughout, one is struck by the grand expectations that Gorbachev, his allies, and his opponents had of the West, and the United States in particular, as a source of political support, legitimation, and, especially, economic assistance. But as Washington watched its Cold War adversary plunge into a meltdown, it was no longer willing to keep extending credit to the Soviet Union and began focusing instead on protecting itself from the consequences of the Soviet Union’s collapse.
A major study of the collapse of the Soviet Union—showing how Gorbachev’s misguided reforms led to its demise. In 1945 the Soviet Union controlled half of Europe and was a founding member of the United Nations. By 1991, it had an army four-million strong, five-thousand nuclear-tipped missiles, and was the second biggest producer of oil in the world. But soon afterward the union sank into an economic crisis and was torn apart by nationalist separatism. Its collapse was one of the seismic shifts of the twentieth century.Thirty years on, Vladislav Zubok offers a major reinterpretation of the final years of the USSR, refuting the notion that the breakup of the Soviet order was inevitable. Instead, Zubok reveals how Gorbachev’s misguided reforms, intended to modernize and democratize the Soviet Union, deprived the government of resources and empowered separatism. Collapse sheds new light on Russian democratic populism, the Baltic struggle for independence, the crisis of Soviet finances—and the fragility of authoritarian state power.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by ramana »

New book
Rethinking Chinese Politics
Joseph Fewsmith
Understanding Chinese politics has become more important than ever. Some argue that China's political system is 'institutionalized' or that 'win all/lose all' struggles are a thing of the past, but, Joseph Fewsmith argues, as in all Leninist systems, political power is difficult to pass on from one leader to the next. Indeed, each new leader must deploy whatever resources he has to gain control over critical positions and thus consolidate power. Fewsmith traces four decades of elite politics from Deng to Xi, showing how each leader has built power (or not). He shows how the structure of politics in China has set the stage for intense and sometimes violent intra-elite struggles, shaping a hierarchy in which one person tends to dominate, and, ironically, providing for periods of stability between intervals of contention.
vimal
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

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ramana
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

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Epoch Times interview with Garside author of China Coup.

https://lists.youmaker.com/links/PcivQD ... lV9Rul8KmE
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

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The new dystopian China at the 2022 Winter Olympics

ramana
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

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Epoch Times writes:
On Jan. 19, an author under the pen name “Ark and China” published the article “Evaluate Xi Jinping Objectively” on overseas Chinese blogs.
The commentary reviewed Xi’s performance over the past decade in the 1)anti-corruption campaign, 2)the party’s ongoing eradication of independent religion and beliefs, 3)human rights abuses, 4)its tight surveillance and control of the people, 5)enhancement of propaganda, 6)further revision of children’s textbooks and history books, 7)the strengthening of state-run enterprises and suppression of the private sector, 7)conflicts with the Western world, and 8 )winning over developing countries by squandering the national treasury.
Note no mention of India or Taiwan or the ASEAN neighbors!

And lists three factors
The author then went on to list three factors that could cause the collapse of Xi’s ruling alongside a predicted worsening of the political situation. It said 1) the achievements claimed by Xi are fabricated,2) the political foundation of Xi’s ruling has been destroyed, and 3) “the entire CCP bureaucracy” is opposed to Xi and his handful of supporters.
Can we look for the original article translated into English?
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

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Link:
https://thebl.com/china/experts-analyze ... nping.html
A 40,000-character article, titled “An Objective Evaluation of Xi Jinping,” was published on Jan. 19. according to Chinese-language Da Ji Yuan news.

The article was widespread domestically and worldwide, attracting great attention due to its sensitive political developments.

Many Chinese analysts have given comments on the article.

According to Li Hengqing, a Chinese-American economist, the current time is the so-called gathering of anti-Xi forces when all parties put in their last efforts before the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) 20th Congress.

Li supposes that the article has released a relatively strong signal.
In the past, Xi was widely assumed to be re-elected due to his power. However, there are many variables currently on whether he can be successfully re-elected at the 20th National Congress.

Chen Weijian, the editor-in-chief of “Beijing Spring” and a senior media person from New Zealand, has sorted out Xi Jinping’s aspects in the past ten years.

Chen argues that the article’s comments on Xi are still objective. However, the article’s stance “anti-Xi not anti-communist” is an issue.

Chen supposes that Xi’s position is based on the CCP’s position. Therefore, to replace him, China cannot let Xi be kidnapped. Chen believes that if Xi Jinping is kidnapped, China’s regime will collapse, and the CCP will also collapse.

Chen said that the article’s author wants to replace Xi Jinping with Bo Xilai, but the article’s main point is anti-Xi, not anti-communist.

According to Jiang Weiping, a former Hong Kong-based Wen Wei Po reporter in Dalian, Bo Xilai has always been a two-faced faction in the political arena.

Bo Xilai is an underworld force in his own right. Besides, his fight against the black in Chongqing is just a cover for power infighting and created a lot of unjust cases.

According to Chen Weijian, since the death of Mao Zedong and after Deng Xiaoping’s reform and opening up, people put all their hopes on Deng Xiaoping, who ended up suppressing the people.

Later, people pinned their hopes on Jiang Zemin, who made a fortune by making a mess of China.

The failure continued when putting their hopes on Hu Jintao.

Finally, Xi Jinping showed up. So naturally, they put their hopes on him, hoping that Xi Jinping is loyal.


Furthermore, Xi Zhongxun, Xi’s father, is an official with the spirit of reform and opening up. Therefore, they expected Xi would inherit his father’s ideas of reform and opening up, but it resulted in a return to Mao Zedong’s days.

Chen Weijian argues that if Chinese residents keep putting their hopes on the CCP, the Chinese people’s suffering will not end.

In addition, it is impossible to carry out a thorough reform if the CCP doesn’t step down.


Because the CCP has done so many evil deeds, from the suppression of the counter-revolution, the Cultural Revolution, to the ‘June 4th’ crackdown, the evil does not stop there, but it keeps killing people.

Chen Weijian concludes that people should not have illusions about such a sin-ridden regime.

A Wall Street financial giant, George Soros, also called on the CCP to “change Xi” before the Beijing Winter Olympics.

Soros publicly stated on Jan. 31 that Xi Jinping might not be re-elected at the CCP’s 20th National Congress due to the real estate crisis, the epidemic, enemies within the party, and the decline in the birth rate, which are all negative factors for Xi Jinping.

Chen Weijian supposes that Soros’s perspective is a financier’s perspective, claiming that real estate is a pillar of the Chinese economy. Therefore, if the CCP regime does not change, the entire regime will collapse together with Xi Jinping.

Confused analysis.
Facts to be noted:

There is an anti-XJP sentiment leading to dissent before he gets his third term.
There is no anti-CCP sentiment which is tragic for China which has suffered from a litany of bad CPC rulers from Mao Zedong to XJP.
There were hopes that XJP would be reform-minded based on his father's legacy.
Turns out he reverted to Mao Zedong.

My analysis:
_ XJP could not follow his father's reform footsteps for he is not powerful enough in the last ten years. Many CPS snakes and lizards pulling him down.
He started the anti-corruption drive, anti-tech company drive, and anti-real-estate drive.
Each of these affects the many swamp creatures that infest China: Corrupt CPC members, high-tech traders with globalist connections, and corrupt real estate tycoons who are local.
By and large, he has suppressed these three groups.
And the CPC 100th anniversary show and the uneventful Beijing Winter Olympics show he is well on his way to getting his third term.

However, the publication of the long litany of XJP faults before the start of the Beijing Olympics shows there is still dissent and it's geared towards him and not the CPC.
So most likely it's his unknown CPC opponents who wrote that article.

So what do I think?

Usually, there will be dissent and protests before the unprecedented third term is confirmed.
Most likely XJP will get his third term but has opposition and has to reform China as the people expected.
He is running out of excuses.
So will he turn inward and rebuild China or turn outward and create trouble?

Depends on how Ukraine shapes up for that will impact China's largest neighbor.
If Russia stumbles in Ukraine and gets weak then expect China to push towards Europe ie XJP turns outward.
If Russia manages to stand ground in Ukraine XJP will turn inwards and reform China.

These are just my thoughts reading that piece and are subject to change with reading the full article!

On an aside, the Chinese historical tradition of scholars criticizing the Emperor is alive and well.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by Cyrano »

ramana garu,
What will Xi do to yet again "reform" China?

Will he make it more capitalist and free market? No, because that will threaten CCP & Xi even more.
Will he make it more free and democratic ? No, because that will threaten CCP & Xi even more.
Will he make it less aggressive and more accommodating ? No, because thats not how he thinks China can become N°1.
Will it try to spread wealth more evenly ? Communist ideology has been at it for a century, won't work any better.

The only plausible "reform" is more purges to become a dictator for life. All communist regimes have done this again and again.

I think Xi will turn inwards and outwards on alternate days. To consolidate his position even more and to chase glory by making China N°1 in his lifetime.

He can do both, not just one at the expense of the other.
JMT.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

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He laid out his plan in 19th Congress.
Implementing them is his reform.
It's on page 1 of this thread.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

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The first 30 minutes of the interview deal with the collapse of the Soviet union and it's impact on the PRC.

Xi is a communist and he is a believer in the communist ideals. While also being a nationalist. Gives a nice synopsis of what is happening in PRC and what future course of actions PRC will be undertaking.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

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My two points on Question one on why FSU collapsed and who is XJP?
FSU collapsed because the Soviet Army became a Russian nationalist force. This transition happened during Stalin's rule when in 1941 he appealed to Russian nationalism to defeat Nazi Germany.
The Soviet Army launched a coup in 1991 to preserve the FSU and found how hollow it was and capitulated so Russia could be revived. Rest is about how FSU became a hollow power and weakened itself.

XJP is a nationalist who is in a communist mold.

I still stand by my analysis that the PRC regime is another dynasty in the long Chinese history.
Stephen Kotkin is well learned and has studied both FSU and PRC and however is wrong on the basic premise.
Both Russia and China are authoritarian countries and need strong leaders.
Both are imperium and function like that despite political changes.
Russia started its rise after the Seven Years' War when the center of political power moved from Western Europe to Central and Eastern Europe.
The real Thyucidides trap is Western Europe along with America waged a 250 years War and destroyed themselves to beat Eastern Europe. And US scholars write tomes about US and China and the Thyucidides Trap!

Russian society still has nobles (now Oligarchs) and serfs(the rest of the population). There are no middle groups.
The problem of Russia is how to create a business class that is not oligarch?
Coming to China it's an empire with new clothes. They are trying to discard these.
That's what XJP is. He is not a Gorbachev who pulled the string that unraveled Communist Soviet Union.
He does have the benefit of four previous emperors- Deng, Jiang, and Hu who started the ball rolling.
Change is hard. And has to be done with the end goal in mind.

Both Russia and China were overpowered by foreign ideologies and not foreign invasions.
The rest of the questions don't belong here. So won't distract.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

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SSM has written an article on India-China Crisis in December 2021.
Link to article and my comments.

viewtopic.php?p=2534607#p2534607
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by V_Raman »

ramanaji - i see below comment from you

INDIA anti narcotics action via MHA has killed planned Pakistani drug income reward through Afghanistan. It was supposed to be Pakistan reward for services rendered to US.

Where can i read more about this? Is MHA - India Ministry of Home affairs?
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