Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

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chetak
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by chetak »

Anoop wrote:It's important that no joint communique on the talks between the Foreign Ministers is issued, no platform for interviews of Wang Yi is given which will simply be misused to reiterate their position (recall the full page ads by the Chinese Embassy in the IE, the interview with PTI) and the Indian assessment of the talks should be provided first by MEA (recall the Chinese side putting out their version of the Xi-Biden talks, and the emphasis on the US statements about the One China policy).
Between the deliberate tanking of the "visit" of the high powered woke britshit delegation and tight superintendence of wang yi's "visit", the refined and very competently confident management of India's foreign policy concerns is on display.

This is one no nonsense and surefooted FM that India has found in Jaishankar.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by g.sarkar »

Cyrano wrote: SJ seemed not at ease, everything was diplomatic speak which says something by not saying anything. I can only surmise Wang Yi's imposed visit sprung some surprises and China took positions that left Indian side displeased and annoyed. Seems to bear out the attitude KLN garu wrote about above.
I have to disagree one just one point. In my opinion Dr. SJ seemed very comfortable and not at all uneasy. Everything he said was deliberate, diplomatic and well thought out. But then he has been a diplomat for a long time. I am sure we will know exactly what happened during the meeting with Mr. Yi quite soon.
Gautam
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by g.sarkar »

https://www.outlookindia.com/national/n ... ews-188495
NSA Ajit Doval Meets China’s FM Wang Yi, Presses For Troop Disengagement In Eastern Ladakh
NSA Ajit Doval pressed Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi for early and complete disengagement of troops in remaining friction points in eastern Ladakh, the officials said.
25 MAR 2022

NSA Ajit Doval on Friday pressed Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi for early and complete disengagement of troops in remaining friction points in eastern Ladakh, official sources said. He also called for removing "impediments" to allow the bilateral ties to take their natural course, they said.
Wang, who holds the rank of state councillor, arrived in Delhi on Thursday evening from Kabul on an unannounced visit.
The NSA and the visiting Chinese foreign minister held extensive talks on the border row.
Doval conveyed to Wang that the restoration of peace and tranquillity in the border region will help build mutual trust and create enabling environment for progress in relations, the sources said, adding that the discussions were held in a cordial atmosphere.
The NSA told Wang that the continuation of the present situation in eastern Ladakh is not in mutual interest and there was need to ensure that actions do not violate the spirit of equal and mutual security, the sources said.
Doval emphasised the need to continue positive interactions at diplomatic and military levels for restoration of peace and tranquillity, saying it is a prerequisite for normalisation of ties between the two sides, they said.
They said the NSA particularly highlighted the need for resolving outstanding issues as quickly as possible and talked about the need for maturity and sincerity in dealing with the issue.
The sources said the Chinese side invited the NSA to visit China to take forward the mandate of special representatives on the boundary question.
The NSA responded positively to the invitation and stated that he could visit after immediate issues are resolved successfully, the sources said.
.....
Gautam
Last edited by ramana on 26 Mar 2022 02:20, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Edited by ramana.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by arshyam »

"and stated that he could visit after immediate issues are resolved successfully, the sources said.'

So, no visits till the border issues are settled to our satisfaction. Message is clear, rest is just chai-samosa timepass.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by chetak »

g.sarkar wrote:
Cyrano wrote: SJ seemed not at ease, everything was diplomatic speak which says something by not saying anything. I can only surmise Wang Yi's imposed visit sprung some surprises and China took positions that left Indian side displeased and annoyed. Seems to bear out the attitude KLN garu wrote about above.
I have to disagree one just one point. In my opinion Dr. SJ seemed very comfortable and not at all uneasy. Everything he said was deliberate, diplomatic and well thought out. But then he has been a diplomat for a long time. I am sure we will know exactly what happened during the meeting with Mr. Yi quite soon.
Gautam
India knows very well how to play the cheeni game


Tibetans in Delhi to hold a large protest over visit of Chinese foreign minister


Image
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by Manish_Sharma »

arshyam wrote:"and stated that he could visit after immediate issues are resolved successfully, the sources said.'

So, no visits till the border issues are settled to our satisfaction. Message is clear, rest is just chai-samosa timepass.
https://twitter.com/elmihiro/status/150 ... zG_BQ&s=19

@elmihiro:
- Came to India uninvited.
- Didn’t get to meet with the PM.
- Got lectured on “Chinese actions” disturbing the bilateral relationship.
- Was advised to follow “an independent policy” and not “be influenced by other countries”.

GrEaT ReSeT, we were told.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by Anoop »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=92ZuZPR0w8s

It occurred to me that one reason for the hastily arranged timing of Wang Yi's visit to India is also to try and pre-empt the Indo-Australia trade deal that is close to being signed (see link above). Among the Quad members, only Australia has annoyed China to the point of affecting their bilateral trade partnership, whereas China continues to run up trade surplus with India, US etc.

Wang Yi's message that India should normalize relationship with China on other fronts, particularly trade, may be intended to cause a rift in the Indo-Aus trade partnership. The Chinese are hurting from their self imposed ban on import of Australian high grade coal and dairy and so is Australia. If Aus can find an alternate market for these items, China will be the only one hurting and makes it more difficult for them to pressure Australia. Glad to see that the MEA and the NSA sent him back empty-handed.

What is also surprising is the sheer amateurishness of their efforts to drive a rift between India and the Quad. From articles in the Global Times to their embassy in France re-tweeting Indian media statements critical of the US, the sheer clownishness of their efforts makes me wonder how competent they really are.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by g.sarkar »

Why Wang Yi came to India:
Gautam
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by ramana »

We need some tight analysis of Wang Yi's visit.
Reason for the visit:
Itinerary significance:
Interactions in India:
Aftermath in the neighborhood:
What does this all mean to India:
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by yensoy »

^^^^ while not an analysis of why Wang Yi visited, please read golden words from ex-ambassador Mr Bhambawale https://www.rediff.com/news/interview/g ... 220329.htm
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by Pratyush »

ramana wrote:We need some tight analysis of Wang Yi's visit.
Reason for the visit:
Itinerary significance:
Interactions in India:
Aftermath in the neighborhood:
What does this all mean to India:
I will try to answer the question.

1) try to keep India engaged and distracted.

2) They are focused on building relationships with the states bordering India. (A ) Leaving India out would make it too much on the nose. (B) tell India that it's signifance to PRC is no greater than Afghanistan or Nepal. The objective is mutually exclusive. But this is the best way i can assess the PRC actions.

3) Limited to FM and NSA as it should be. But IMO NSA meeting could have been avoided by us. Message delivered by India. Keeps the possibility of war low.

4) tells them that India is not so important for PRC to warrant a seperate meeting and accomodation. That they will help in dealing with big bad India.

The pathology is quite amusing, it the consequences of this were not so damaging to Nepal.

Pakistan is meaning less. They don't really have too many options. PRC will get transit rights in Pakistan from Afghanistan to Gawder.

Afghanistan is interesting, this visit helps PRC in getting mining rights from Taliban in exchange for Afghanistan's integration into PRC led international banking system. Thereby, solving Afghanistan's biggest international headache. While securing rare earth supplies for new age PRC economy.

5) In the short term it will have no meaning for India. In the long term, Afghanistan's mineral resources coupled with the mineral resources of a desperate Russia solves a lot of problems for PRC raw materials. While dening the same to both India and the western nations.

Leaving a scramble for Africa, where PRC is already better placed due to easy commercial loans and infrastructure finance.

All in all creates a difficult medium to long term economic situation for India.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by g.sarkar »

https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/news ... sits-india
Nothing official about it, but PRC Foreign Minister Wang Yi visits India
Madhav Nalapat, March 26, 2022

New Delhi: CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping’s handpicked undiplomatic and hectoring Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, arrived and exited India this week. For Xi, domestic politics are front and centre in this year, when he expects to be confirmed as General Secretary for life by the CCP. The purpose of Wang Yi’s unofficial stopover was to enbed to Chinese Communist Party cadres the fiction that under Xi Jinping, relations with India remained normal. The fact that the PRC trade surplus with India has reached levels not regarded as possible just two years ago has been put forward by Team Xi as illustrating his point that no matter how aggressive the PRC may be in transgressing the sovereignty and territorial integrity of India, Beijing’s hold over the commercial aspects of the Sino-Indian relationship remains impregnable. Meanwhile, Xi’s Beijing appears to have no limit on its hunger for fresh territory on land and sea. This is despite the Peoples Republic of China under Chairman Mao Zedong having seized control of more than double the territory that had been ruled from Beijing in the pre-CCP period, whether these be KMT or Imperial rule. The PRC will pay a heavy geopolitical cost for having alienated the only other country with a billion plus population on the planet, and increasingly, individuals within the CCP leadership circles are beginning to understand this fact. There is a growing perception within the CCP that Xi Jinping has, by his actions and policies, lost the friendship of India, and may now be on track to lose the friendship of the Russian Federation as well. This is through Xi and those under him trying to be all things to all people. In the Ukrainian case, to both the Russia-targeting members of NATO as well as to a Russia that is under siege for the crime of choosing Vladimir Putin rather than a Boris Yeltsin or Gorbachev clone as the leader of the world’s largest country by far. After Xi having first delighted NATO by being neutral in the first UNSC vote after the 24 February 2022 Special Military Operation (aka invasion) of Ukraine by Russia, a perception is growing in that country that Xi remains far from committed to the “Limitless Partnership” that he had proclaimed in the presence of President Putin shortly before the Russian military moved in force to create a new geographical realty in Ukraine. According to Wang Yi, it was entirely coincidental that the invasion began almost immediately after the Beijing Winter Olympics ended. This while from the military point of view, it would have been preferable to have launched it three weeks earlier than 24 February, when the preparedness of the irregular forces that have since 2015 been trained and equipped by NATO to fight Russian forces by NATO ( a la Afghanistan circa 1980s).
MISTAKES DONE BY PAST GOVERNMENTS
India under Modi has understood the error made in the past by previous governments. This was to constantly support the case of Communist China in international fora even against the Indian interest. This led to such anomalies as India backing the PRC within the UN in its claim for the permanent seat in the UN Security Council even during the period in 1962 when the PLA was attacking this country on a broad front. The attack was in contempt of international laws on sovereignty and territorial integrity, a flouting of international norms that is especially visible in the present era, when Xi Jinping has taken control of the CCP to a level possibly greater than that ever exercised by Chairman Mao, the creator of the PRC, or by Deng Xiaoping, the architect of Economic Superpower China. Rather than come to an accommodation with India based on mutual respect and interests, CCP General Secretary Xi and his trusted aides such as Foreign Minister Wang Yi have worked ceaselessly in efforts at preventing the rise of India, and indeed, in seeking a meltdown of the country as desired by GHQ Rawalpindi. Under Xi, the Sino-Wahabi alliance has progressed in spectacular fashion, and this was on display in the days preceding the PRC Foreign Minister’s unofficial visit to India. Wang’s stopover was unannounced by the host country, although media outlets across the world spoke of the “game changing” and “immense significance” of the “first visit by the Chinese FM to India since the pandemic”. Wang Yi had chosen to visit Afghanistan and Pakistan while making repeated attempts to procure an official invitation to visit India, a hostile act with clarity of intent. Wang Yi’s public embrace of the Two Nation theory in Pakistan has seriously weakened the PRC claim to Xinjiang and Tibet, which have a Muslim and a Buddhist majority despite decades of demographic change through the importatation of Han into both. Given the mating calls that foreign ministers belonging to NATO have been making to the PRC, it would appear that such open backing to extremist elements by the CCP leadership under Xi is of as little consequence as the fact that GHQ Rawalpindi assisted Taliban and other anti-western fighters to kill NATO troops in Afghanistan over the entire 20-year period of the battle waged by NATO since 2021.This was to rid Afghanistan of extremist militias that ended with its surrender to them in 2022. The problem facing the Office of the General Secretary of the CCP is that the only force that Xi has relied on (the Pakistan military) is rapidly losing public respect in the country.
.....
Gautam
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by Cyrano »

Wang Yi's visit looks like a quick dip-stick test to
1. Assess how India's posture vis a vis China might have evolved since Feb 24th and subsequent events. Though they would not have expected lot would change
2. Assess how India is going to position itself in the midst of the crystallising multipolarity with distinct blocks emerging, though the situation remains fluid at present
and report back to CCP leadership, which is among other things, getting ready for BRICS summit this year.

Of course, slave of old habits, Wang had to shake his little dong in the neighbourhood to mark territory and inflate it before setting foot in India.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by Anoop »

https://youtu.be/Bp9VyeCeQv8

Handling Covid outbreak, CCP style! Clearly, the state apparatus is incapable of dealing with human beings - this is a government of robots, by robots, intended only for robots.

I am beginning to understand how the CCP can bring such tone-deafness to foreign relations too. And be really puzzled when the world doesn't go along with their diktats.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by SSridhar »

ramana wrote:We need some tight analysis of Wang Yi's visit.
Ramana, this is what I felt and I had written passionately about this in our think-tank circle too.

Reason for the visit:

China is nimble-footed in assessing and grabbing any opening. Its top-most priority is not Ladakh which it feels it can manage in spite of such severe setbacks. We would not go into reasons for that here. Its main worry is the Indo-China Sea and the ganging up of the QUAD. It wants to weaken the unity of the QUAD. In its opinion, and in the opinion of many others too, the weakest link of the QUAD is India because of its strong posture of 'strategic autonomy' and the still-lingering trust-deficit with the US that shows up now and then in spite of the extremely remarkable closeness in the relationship. It wants to chip away at every opportunity to remove that one pillar (the strongest pillar, India, of the QUAD after the US) that would unravel the QUAD. The UKR war has cemented the EU/US/NATO relationship. China is worried about this unexpected fallout which it looks at negatively. It viewed India's stance in the issue as the thin end of a wedge into the QUAD and the trip was a gambit therefore. The visit was to look for openings in this front. The Chinese readout after the meeting was a complete giveaway of this approach as it hinted at the impression of unanimity between India & China on these developments. India & China may only superficially appear to have a similar goal whereas the fundamental reasons are like cheese & chalk.

China is also in a difficult situation in supporting Russia openly as that country is economically more dispensable than say the US or EU. It also knows that Russia is malleable and would be more so in the coming months and years. China needs partners to fight sanctions and the Indian position offers it some hope of being able to work with India.

Of course, the Chinese work on multiple opportunities simultaneously so that even only two or three out of ten click, it would still be a good bargain in the end. China wants the BRICS & RIC meetings later this year to go through smoothly in Beijing especially with the National Congress meeting likely in October. The Xi-boat should not be rocked. In the RIC meeting that preceded the Beijing Winter Olympics by a few months, China is supposed to have brought to bear pressure on India through Russia to support the event and then it stabbed us yet again by deputing its Galwan officer to carry the Olympic torch. So, China would want to play it very safe.

China also wants to give the appearance of the border issue being at the consideration of the highest levels within China so that India does not do any surprise Kailash on them before October. Hence the invitation to SR Ajit Doval for the next round of SR-level meeting, which of course has been rejected by Doval.

Itinerary significance:

I do not read too much significance into the itinerary except for one thing.

Wang Yi wouldn't have given up the opportunity of addressing the OIC and commiserating with them on J&K because such a narrative serves China's deep interests. China fancies itself as a stakeholder in J&K now. Besides, it needs to divert attention from its own handling of Uyghurs in Xinjiang. He knew that a statement at the OIC can always be explained away to the Indians who are reasonable. He felt perhaps that a chance to meet him and discuss the border issue face-to-face wouldn't be let go of by India in spite of some 'carefully' provocative statement at the OIC. Cancellation of Wang Yi's trip would have been more appropriate.

Interactions in India:

I am sure that the EAM Jaishankar gave Wang Yi a mouthful. Wang Yi's body language when he briefly appeared for the photo-op appeared nervous to me. But, China needs to be admonished openly and paid back in the same coin. That's what they appreciate. Doval saw through the game and refused accept the invitation unless the status-quo ante of April 2020 was re-established. EAM Jaishankar also made it very clear that it is no 'business as usual', a position from which we have not resiled.

Aftermath in the neighborhood:

Don't see much of an impact in the Indian subcontinent.

What does this all mean to India:

It means to India that we have reached a dead-end in Ladakh, at least until the end of 2022. The reason I view it this way is that the Wang Yi trip was *not* about the pressing border issue at Ladakh. At this point in time, Ladakh may not have any priority within the Chinese hierarchy and soon enough, they will all be busy with the 20th Congress. The emphasis on the talks appear to have been distinctly opposite between the two countries. Wang Yi, therefore delivered a subtle message there.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by SinghS »

SSridhar wrote: Wang Yi, therefore delivered a subtle message there.
I am not much of a diplomatic person. I am unable to understand, what's the point of making a trip to India - just to deliver a subtle tip while being cold shouldered by the Indians?

I don't think Wang Yi and Chinese in general; for whom saving face and image is so important; would ask for on a trip where they would be treated in a disdainful manner. It must be something else.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by GShankar »

I think Lavrov's visit is because Wang's visit was not successful one way or the other. I hope we are able to remain un-swayed by lavrov as well. We need to be clear on meeting our objectives.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by RaviB »

There has been a lot of speculation about what exactly the Chinese were expecting from Wang Yi's visit. Mostly there has been incomprehension. I wrote a long time back about how the Chinese really perceive us and that we also need to see them differently. China assumes India has the same value system as it (if any) and India assumes Chinese have a similar code such as us and therefore we always talk past each other.

To understand snakes, one must learn Slytherin.
My previous posts, which might help you put the Chinese actions into context:
1. viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7810&p=2441143#p2441143
2. viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7810&p=2441202#p2441202

I read the reporting on Chinese media and came across this thorough article from two days before the visit, which lays bare what the Chinese were thinking

Google translate version https://news-creaders-net.translate.goo ... r_pto=wapp

Key assumptions in the article:
1. India and China were standing together against the West's hegemony We accidentally happened to be on the same side as the Chinese but for very different reasons. But for the Chinese, the different value systems and interests are incomprehensible, ergo we were with China on the same side for the same reasons.

2. Gen. Rawat was a representative of the "hardliners" against China in the Indian army, and his death also weakened the power of this faction. Therefore, India's attitude towards China is also changing. This is the kind of thinking that would be "common sense" for the Chinese. For us, this would be a reason to flip out and rage about the stupidity of the Chinese. IMO, we should use this as a way to read China's own actions. So what does this tell us about the series of changes of Generals on the Chinese side? That the attack on Ladakh is pushed by some factions and maybe opposed by other factions of the PLA and that they didn't expect it to get this big or that India would react so resolutely.

3. Just because China and India are both advocating talks to promote peace and maintaining a neutral attitude, the United States and the West have both attacked China and India by public opinion and exerted diplomatic pressure. Again, there is the assumption of India breaking with the West and joining China. (The Chinese have their own version of with US or against US, there is no third possibility)

4. India does not want to be isolated, while China also faces similar attacks and smears from Western politicians and media. Therefore, India and China naturally need to come together. The idea that India could take a stand for itself or be on its own side is simply alien to the Chinese. Think how you would think about Nepal choosing to go its own way on the Ukraine-Russia conflict. That's how the Chinese see us.

5. India has a deep and abiding friendship for Russia This is the one they get somewhat right I think. Our stance is tinged by nostalgia and is definitely not pure Realpolitik.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by GShankar »

@RaviB - thanks for sharing this. In lurker mode I have read several of your posts about what chinese media is propagating for internal consumption.

My assumption is that all news/media outlets in china are state controlled. In your opinion, are there any news outlets that India could influence to articulate our point of view better? To paraphrase, are there any outlets that would allow someone from India (say an indian insider like General Ravi Shankar - may be there are better examples that i don't know of), who could write and publish an Indian point of view?

If not in China, may be in Taiwan? If you have any insights, please share.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by Anoop »

https://youtu.be/Bp9VyeCeQv8

Interesting take on the CCPs compulsions in enforcing the zero Covid policy, come what may in the form of disruption of life. The contrast drawn with the UP election result - a state election, at that- is revealing.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by RaviB »

GShankar wrote:@RaviB - thanks for sharing this. In lurker mode I have read several of your posts about what chinese media is propagating for internal consumption.

My assumption is that all news/media outlets in china are state controlled. In your opinion, are there any news outlets that India could influence to articulate our point of view better? To paraphrase, are there any outlets that would allow someone from India (say an indian insider like General Ravi Shankar - may be there are better examples that i don't know of), who could write and publish an Indian point of view?

If not in China, may be in Taiwan? If you have any insights, please share.
Thank you.

Anything that is popular in China is manipulated by government censors. So basically either a post or story or article doesn't get much traction or if it does, it comes under review of the censors. The censors are stupid, so might let some things through but at some point they stamp down on anything that seems suspicous. So IMO, the way is not to carry the news to them but to bring them to the news, or as Sun Tzu says " the poisoned honeypot traps the fly" (I made that up). If you look at viral news related to India, it has come from the unlikeliest of sources. The two best examples I can think of is a Baba Banaras psyop tweet that went viral in China or the recent video of Arnab Goswami lecturing an American prof. So basically, you make it up and they will come to you. They cannot discriminate between good and bad sources of news, so we just need to make sure we manufacture absurd stories that serve our needs and leave the rest to the Chinese internet mob. Twitter is also a good source to spread disinfo to China, it's banned there but that only increases its credibility.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by ramana »

Thanks guys for the views. Please post more as we need thoughts and not forwards.

SS, Why not Ladakh instead of Indo China Sea?
Basically Wang Yi mission was to ensure India helps make BRICS and SCO meetings in Beijing a success. Then there is RCI meeting too.
India conveyed no chance till status quo ante April 2020 and reduce trade deficit.
So it's stalemate if not a fail.
In terms of loss of face it's a fail so far.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by SSridhar »

ramana wrote:SS, Why not Ladakh instead of Indo China Sea?
ICS is China's Achilles Heel. It is also the single-most important foreign policy objective. It will also be its strength if it could achieve its goals there namely, Taiwan, Senkaku and above all dislodging the US from ICS & Western Pacific. Therefore, it needs to break-up any alliance in ICS and it sees an opportunity in the UKR war.

Ladakh pales into insignificance. China typically spends 90% of its diplomatic & military resources & initiatives on ICS. Besides, the Chinese have a dim view of Indian political determination as well as the Indian military to pose much of a challenge in spite of events proving them totally wrong otherwise !

The Chinese even think that our nuclear weapons are purely for reasons of prestige and we wouldn't have the gumption to use them when it comes to the crunch !
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by SSridhar »

SinghS wrote:
SSridhar wrote: Wang Yi, therefore delivered a subtle message there.
. . ., what's the point of making a trip to India - just to deliver a subtle tip . . .
I would suggest that you read the whole post.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by ramana »

SSridhar wrote:
ramana wrote:SS, Why not Ladakh instead of Indo China Sea?
1) ICS is China's biggest Achilles Heel. It is also the single-most important foreign policy objective. It will also be its strength if it could achieve its goals there namely, Taiwan, Senkaku and above all dislodging the US from ICS & Western Pacific. Therefore, it needs to break up any alliance in ICS and it sees an opportunity in the UKR war.

2)Ladakh pales into insignificance. China typically spends 90% of its diplomatic resources & initiatives on ICS. Besides, the 3) Chinese have a dim view of Indian political determination as well as the Indian military to pose much of a challenge in spite of events proving them totally wrong otherwise!

The Chinese even think that our nuclear weapons are purely for reasons of prestige and we wouldn't have the gumption to use them when it comes to the crunch!
SS, You make important points which I numbered.
1) True ICS is China's weakest Achilles heel and yet all it's near aboard challenges are right there as you listed. However any move there will challenge US hegemony in the Pacific carefully built up since Commodore Perry's gunboat diplomacy. And the US has treaties that tie them to the defense of these countries. Yes, Biden looks deficient but the US has a lot of reserve strengths to counter China is its dislodged from the Pacific. So I think there will just be talk of making moves but no action to follow up there.

2) Yes Ladakh pales in comparison to the prize in the Indo-China Sea. Wang Yi came to Delhi without an invite precisely as Ladakh is an easy target for China. XJP needs a win to cement his third term in the 20th COngress. And Ladakh looks tempting. Arunachal will not be a target this time as it's a purely India-China thing. Ladakh has the Pakis bleating about Pak Occupied Ladakh. Chinese preference is for tri-country disputes where they can take advantage of the fog of cartography. we see that in Dokhlam etc.
3) If you note I numbered it right after 2)! Bruce Beuno De Mesquita did a study of wars over the ages(The War Trap) and listed the factors that affect the outcome.
The one who initiates a war will win in most cases due to various reasons. And to initiate the conflict the party has to calculate they will win. The factors that go into the calculation are a divided opponent, disarray in commanders,(lack of CDS and sabotage of the Theatre Commands), lack of allies (India is quite alone), the low propensity of outside help (Ukraine Crisis has sucked the energy out of most allies), and other powers egging the conflict (Biden would not lose sleep if India is knocked down from high horse).
Taking the balance of probabilities I would say Ladakh is a high chance to be in a conflict rather than the Indo-China Sea.
So how to disincentivize XJP?
Work on all the factors in India's control:
1) Appoint CDS. "Delay is the worst form of denial", said Parkinson.
2) Create theatre commands to show the unity of purpose. Roll them out with conflict areas(Northern and Eastern theatres) later to prevent chaos. Take disciplinary action on resisters. It is not a joke or rice bowl issue any longer.
3) Crank up military production in HAL, OFB, etc. Adopt the OFB rifles.
4) Complete roads and tunnels freight corridors to speed up reinforcements from far-off bases. Eg UK, Ladakh, and Arunachal etc.
5) Crackdown on internal security matters like Bengal where every person has a bomb-making outfit in the backyard.
6) Exercise open display of military might to keep Pak in their barracks and light a few fires on their West. This time Brahmos launches will be intentional.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by SSridhar »

ramana wrote: So how to disincentivize XJP?
Work on all the factors in India's control:
1) Appoint CDS. "Delay is the worst form of denial", said Parkinson. . . .
ramana, I take your second part first and completely agree on all of them. However, I have a different take on the first part.
Taking the balance of probabilities I would say Ladakh is a high chance to be in a conflict rather than the Indo-China Sea.
I am not suggesting there is imminent action likely in ICS. If anything, China will be more cautious now after the UKR war.

Similarly, I do not see any action by China in the Ladakh front either, especially in the year of the Congress. XJP is not under any domestic threat in the 20th Congress. All threats are neutered. He does not need a Ladakh victory to buttress his enthroning. Li Keqiang & Wang Yi are retiring. The latter was never a threat anyway. By the time, the Congress is over, Ladakh would become impossible to launch any military action. Action, if at all, is unlikely in Ladakh before April, 2023
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by ramana »

Lets see and be prepared.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by Cyrano »

I'm veering to the view that what happened in May 2020 was a military commander's overreach tolerated by the leadership as an amusing game to see India's reaction. After a couple of rounds of skirmishes poking the tiger further was seen as not worthwhile.

The political mileage Xi can get from Ladakh will pale in comparison to Taiwan due to it being so far away from mainland, with no cultural ties. The Chinese people can rightly be sceptic of even a victory and territory grab of a few thousand sq kms "where even a blade of grass doesn't grow", at the cost of a terrible mauling from otherwise peaceful India that anyway cannot compete with China and never posed any threat.

Besides why risk a big strong market with trade imbalance of 44B$ in their favour when traditional markets like US and EU are not growing...

Conflict with India might be no longer "à la mode" in China. Doesn't mean they will concede anything, what does it cost to have even 100 rounds of talks... India anyway has little to gain in trying to push them back using force. They will let it simmer... for now.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by V_Raman »

This simmering is the best thing that can happen to keep India MIC in focus. This also helps in developing domestic industries. We already see that with APIs for pharma. We need that to keep us alert.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by Rudradev »

SSridhar wrote:
Similarly, I do not see any action by China in the Ladakh front either, especially in the year of the Congress. XJP is not under any domestic threat in the 20th Congress. All threats are neutered. He does not need a Ladakh victory to buttress his enthroning. Li Keqiang & Wang Yi are retiring. The latter was never a threat anyway. By the time, the Congress is over, Ladakh would become impossible to launch any military action. Action, if at all, is unlikely in Ladakh before April, 2023
Agreed. There is no way in which an attack on Ladakh turns out well for Xi Jinping's political prospects.

The PLA simply do not have it in them to achieve a decisive (and more importantly-- clearly verifiable) military victory against India there. This is a lesson that will be further reinforced for China as the Russia-Ukraine conflict drags on, with Russia unable to bring it to a satisfactory conclusion despite enjoying much more favourable terrain than Ladakh and a much greater power differential with its opponent than China has over India.

It is a risk Xi Jinping does not need to take, and also a risk with little promise of reward. Of course, this does not mean China will not attack in Ladakh even in 2022; institutions like CCP miscalculate all the time. But if anything, an attack on India is more likely to be fatal for Xi Jinping's ambitions than the Ukraine war is likely to be for Putin's future prospects.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by ramana »

Truman wanted one handed experts!
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by ramana »

Rudradev
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by Rudradev »

Cyrano wrote: Conflict with India might be no longer "à la mode" in China. Doesn't mean they will concede anything, what does it cost to have even 100 rounds of talks... India anyway has little to gain in trying to push them back using force. They will let it simmer... for now.
I've said it before and will say it again. China knows that its very best weapon, its best hope of permanently subjugating India is by working through the BIF political parties and their affiliated ecosystem to cripple (if not replace) the Modi government. Nothing would work out better for Beijing than that.

EVEN the greatest Utility of Pakistan to China, today, is as a conduit of control, influence and support to the BIF political ecosystem *in India*. Pakistan army, CPEC, jihadi terror establishment, all that has been shown to be a total loss. It is the ISI/D-company networks of contacts with INC, AAP, AITC, Onion Merchant, etc. that are the real prize for Beijing.

A perpetually pliant GOI that never makes any move to secure Indian interests and is always for sale-- from China's perspective, such a prize is worth keeping Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh simmering without resolution for another 100 years if necessary.

I am sure there are people in the Politburo Standing Committee and other high offices of CCP who recognize this. I am sure they also recognize that the one thing guaranteed to defeat this design is to get into a shooting war with India. Modi remains popular despite global economic hardship, inflation, COVID... things that have destroyed governments throughout the Western world and developing nations alike. Imagine the effect on Modi's popularity if China launched a war against an India under his leadership. He would become 100% invulnerable, and China's best weapon (its political proxies in India) would become totally useless for the foreseeable future.

Perhaps there are others in the CCP who make different (and erroneous) calculations. If their views prevail, China may shoot itself in the foot by launching a war against India (I am not discounting that).
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by chetak »

Meanwhile, an old "friend" is back to haunt India once again, inveigling her way into the QUAD

wonder what the agenda is this time, especially after the britshit parliamentary delegation was refused the nod to "visit" India

when dealing with the britshits, just carry a big stick, never you mind about speaking softly

dangling new security and defence toys now, are we....

The britshits are very quick out of the gate, eagerly hoping to replace some of the items that putin would normally have sold us

on the one hand, they are part and parcel of the ameriki sanctions imposing regime to cripple the russkis and as "a nation of shopkeepers" keen to beat the queue lining up to take up the slack in the weapons trade with India

even after all these years, it seems like nothing has changed in "merrie olde england" and her less than subtle "once more unto the breach" sense of insensitive and exploitative enterprise

will tante truss be as condescending and imperious as the blocked parliamentary delegation with their colonial airs of pretentious la-di-da or has she arrived suitably chastened, hat in hand
@ANI·1h

“This matters even more in the context of Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine and underlines the need for free democracies to work closer together in areas like defence, trade and cyber security," : British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss
@ANI·47m

British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss in India today

“Deeper ties between Britain and India will boost security in the Indo-Pacific and globally, and create jobs and opportunities in both countries," she has said.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by Cyrano »

Rudradev ji,
Agree fully wrt China trying to eat India from the inside.
Russia unable to bring it to a satisfactory conclusion despite enjoying much more favourable terrain than Ladakh and a much greater power differential with its opponent
The more I dig into this conflict, the more data points emerge that show this is actually a US vs RU conflict, that US has single-mindedly pursued for decades to control Ukr politics, train and arm Ukr forces and extremist militias, engineer regime change, prepare them for battle - whats happening today is the culmination of decades of effort under several administrations. More on this on Ukr thread.

Whatever be the result for Russia out of it, it has taken on the combined might of US, NATO and Ukr in an existential battle. The "fArt of war" fed Chinese will never dare to take so much risk and losses. Its not in their genes.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by Armuan »

If Chinese plan to make some kind of move on Taiwan later this year, would Wang-Yi's visit have any significance it that context? They would keep such an intention under tight wraps and would do it opportunistic, gauging the situation in Ukraine and how things pan out and if the West is scattered.
Not necessarily an all out assault, but to make significant moves to bolster their claim and supremacy in ICS to a point where any support from the West would become more and more untenable. It would be a win for China in the the long term. This is a tight rope walk if it gets messed up however. Such a move by China would not unexpected if the winds blow in their favor.

Just asking.

* Feel out India to see if they will make push in Ladakh when their attention is in ICS.
* Some mend to the relationship if possible; pull India to Russia-China axis. Scatter West's presumed unity/ Quad in this context.

I am not sure if he came with deeper intentions such as above, but his visit was a disaster. Glad we stood strong. Perhaps for the first time?
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by Cyrano »

If the West weakens, China will be busy consolidating its gains first, Taiwan will always be around (and weaker given its strong ties to the West) when China gets even more stronger. Taking over Taiwan will be much easier then, might not even need a war.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by ramana »

Aruman, Thanks for asking for it shows you are reading and thinking.
Actually, China's move into Ladakh in 2020 turned out to be the disaster.
Since then the diplomacy has been on how to get out of the thorn patch without getting hurt and dignity intact.
As you can see the Ukraine Crisis shows Asia needs China.
BTW Lavrov is in Delhi from Beijing.
Could not be a coincidence.
And German NSA is also in Delhi to make his country's case about Ukraine.
They want Russian gas but won't pay in rubles. And like cheap merchants talk about contracts!
Who will enforce the contract? UN?
A better option is to pay India in Euros and let India remit in roubles.
And Russia pipe the gas.

Cyrano the real test for the West is the Indo-China Sea (ICS).
What do they plan to do if China makes its eventual moves?
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by ramana »

Five years after this thread was started what's the consensus understanding of XJP's China?
I would like the infrequent lurkers to also contribute.
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