Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

Very apt observation. Buddhism is a Chravaka school of Hinduism.
It is still under the Hinduism umbrella.
So if Buddhism gets shorn of its religiosity it becomes an empty shell like naroti ( Marathis for empty coconut shell) or a wood apple.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

Also, it was the Qing Dynasty that brought "All Under the Heaven"
Next was Mao Zedong.

XJP's speech at the 19th Congress wants to expand that area.

This is where we are.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

After WWII, the US tried to bring its own version of "All under Heaven" especially after the end of the Cold War.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

The more I think about it the stationing of the US in East Asia in the 19th Century was enabled by a strong British India on China's West. Indian troops had a role in the Opium Wars, the Boxer Rebellion, and Indian merchants in making Hong Kong a trading center.
However Indian independence and later muddled thinking in Delhi led to Mao Zedong at the Himalayan gates.

Now the US finds itself in a tight spot as it wants to continue its presence in East Asia without India due to own geo-political reasons of the Islamic West Asia. However, since the end of the Cold War, the US has been getting out of West Asia with Biden finally moving out of Kabul. IOW US no longer has the Islamist ball and chain holding it back since the end of WWII with the British withdrawal from West Asia. So-called Wells of Power mirage by Olaf Caroe.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

Is XJP's MOH shaky?
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

Chinese Defense minister to visit India in May 2023.
Dilbu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8272
Joined: 07 Nov 2007 22:53
Location: Deep in the badlands of BRFATA

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by Dilbu »

The Bad Advice Plaguing Beijing’s Foreign Policy
The incursion in January of a Chinese spy balloon into U.S. airspace seemed to many observers like a bad miscalculation by Beijing. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken had been scheduled to travel to China the following month, but the balloon incident led to the scrapping of the much-anticipated visit. Chinese leader Xi Jinping almost certainly would have preferred to see diplomacy proceed as planned. It is likely that he would not have sanctioned this operation had he known its consequences. If he believed that the United States would simply overlook the incursion, he was clearly mistaken.

Authoritative sources inside the U.S. government, including senior Pentagon officials, suggest that the real culprit may have been bureaucratic error. It is possible, for instance, that Xi approved the balloon reconnaissance program in general but did not know the particulars of this specific mission—and was unable to identify the ways in which it might undermine his immediate diplomatic priorities. This lack of control seems to belie the conventional image of Xi as a strongman with a tight grip on his lieutenants. After all, Xi does have a firm hold over the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). At the 20th National Party Congress last fall, for example, he appointed to prominent positions an array of party officials with whom he has close personal ties. But how could such a powerful ruler be unaware of, or lack quality information about, the potential fallout from a risky operation?
The fault lies in the institutional processes that inform decision-making in the Chinese government. Xi may be a strongman with unchallenged control of the party apparatus, but the decisions he makes in shaping China’s foreign policy are only as good as the information he receives from his subordinates. Many bureaucrats who advise Xi, and who advised his predecessors, are prone to mislead their superiors; others do not have access to all the information required to assemble a full picture of a situation. For those reasons, the very structures that Xi relies on for his political survival—namely, the rules that make it costly for subordinates to push back against Xi’s conclusions and that limit coordination between the military and civilian arms of the state—are the same ones that lead to the production of bad advice. This habit of flawed decision-making in Beijing makes costly missteps more likely. If Xi is misled into a more drastic miscalculation than that of the spy balloon, it could have dangerous consequences not just for China but also for the world.
The dilemma Xi faces—and the one all leaders in the People’s Republic of China have faced—is that the same processes that deliver inaccurate information also tend to help leaders subdue would-be political challengers. Appointing loyalists to key bureaucratic posts and restricting information sharing among bureaucratic organizations ensure that the bureaucracy does not grow too powerful. Enfeebled bureaucrats might not offer good information, but they are unlikely to support or lead a political challenge against the leader. Restricting information sharing and deliberation may produce poor advice in the long run, but it also ensures that the bureaucracy cannot oppose the leader in the short run.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

I think the US GOTUS is making excuses for XJP balloon jihad.
XJP balloons are quite well-equipped low-power autonomous flying objects.
They serve multiple objectives: weather patterns, photos, radar surveillance, trigger USAF reaction, and above all political will of US!
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

Reuters reports exit controls on Chinese people have been clamped

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chi ... 023-05-02/

There is a Chinese saying I quoted before:
"Troubles within, troubles without!"
This exit ban indicates some internal issues are surfacing.
And this doesn't reconcile with XJP trying to open up for investors.
There was a report of Jack Ma showing up in China too.
So watch this space.
SSridhar
Forum Moderator
Posts: 25087
Joined: 05 May 2001 11:31
Location: Chennai

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by SSridhar »

ramana wrote:There was a report of Jack Ma showing up in China too.
He just escaped this law and joined Tokyo Uni as a Visiting Professor.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

T. Greer writes about his reading of "America on America" by Wang Huning

https://twitter.com/Scholars_Stage/stat ... 14242?s=20
Almost finished with Wang Huning’s AMERICA AGAINST AMERICA (美国反对美国).

I don’t understand all the people who have described this as a “screed,” “attack,” or even really a “critique” of America?
Now this book is there since 1991. And now the author is reading it shows there is interest in studying Wang Huning.

T. Greer
@Scholars_Stage
·
5h
Inasmuch as he has central ideas in this book, I’d say there are 4 reccurring questions:

1) What are the requirements for scientific advance and technological modernization that he believes the US embodies? Especially human capital requirements?
T. Greer
@Scholars_Stage
·
5h
2) How do Americans replicate their political culture and institutions over time? Does capitalism inevitably level culture as it advances?
T. Greer
@Scholars_Stage
·
5h
3) why do Americans follow rules and cooperate when there is no central government planning program to unify effort and no central party line to unify thought?
T. Greer
@Scholars_Stage
·
5h
4) What are the consequences of American identity being grounded in contradictory ideals (eg liberty vs equality, democracy vs individualism, etc)?
Interesting that WH has similar questions Alexander Tocqueville had in the 19th century.
navneeet
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 53
Joined: 19 Jul 2010 22:16

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by navneeet »

China Is Coming Out Of The Shadows To Defend Its Oil Interests

- The seizure of oil tankers in international waters in the Gulf of Oman last week are not a standalone event.
- China will not accept any interference from the U.S. in any aspect of its expansion across the Middle East.
- China appears to have decided that the time is now right to come out of the shadows as far as its imports of crude oil from Iran are concerned.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... rests.html
bala
BRFite
Posts: 1997
Joined: 02 Sep 1999 11:31
Location: Office Lounge

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by bala »

National GDP is an economic activity measure that some governments like to manipulate. China’s decades of economic growth are based on a GDP-centric growth model because Beijing wants a comparable GDP to compete with the United States. China’s published GDP in 2022 is $17.9 trillion, getting closer to the U.S. GDP of $25.5 trillion. However, people believe that China’s GDP is overstated and manipulated. What is China’s real GDP in 2022? Lei has done her calculations based on 2 methods.

China’s real GDP is less than half of what the Chinese government claims it to be

Cyrano
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5481
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by Cyrano »

Some of what she says is surely true, China has been a scam economy and their numbers are cooked since many years.

However, over the past 3 decades they have created some fantastic national assets like infra, huge mfg capacity and trained workforce, serious R&D capabilities, supply chains, market access, a trillion $ forex reserve, military and space tech and assets etc.

But they created lots of problems as well, ghost cities, tofu buildings, gigantic ego trip projects, social tensions that simmer under the surface, lop sided demographics etc.

The reality is somewhere in between. They are more powerful than India in many aspects but have weaknesses that make them vulnerable. India is consistently underrated, which is mostly fine because we will pack a killer surprise punch when the time comes. There is no doubt about that.
sanman
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2311
Joined: 22 Mar 2023 11:02

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by sanman »

g.sarkar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4382
Joined: 09 Jul 2005 12:22
Location: MERCED, California

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by g.sarkar »

"KILL AMERICANS" - China's New Education Campaign in School
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NUaYNhz ... l=laowhy86
Gautam
RaviB
BRFite
Posts: 261
Joined: 09 Jun 2020 14:32

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by RaviB »

Cyrano wrote:Some of what she says is surely true, China has been a scam economy and their numbers are cooked since many years.

...
Cyrano ji, even the Chinese don't trust their own GDP figures and use electricity consumption, etc. as proxy.

There is some new work that uses night time lights data to estimate GDP. This has been an established technique since 2010s. As economies grow, they have more lights and brighter lights, more lights signifies urban expansion, road networks, new factories, etc. Brighter lights signify increased economic activity. There may be differences between countries, for example countries with same absolute amount of lights and different GDP. However, since GDP growth is measured by change over time within the same country, this problem is sidestepped.

When this data was applied to a comparison of authoritarian and non-authoritarian countries, it was observed that autocracies (including China) systematically inflate GDP growth figures by around 1.8% per year.

China in particular has crowed for years that its system of authoritarianism has outperformed democracies. Other countries have made similar claims. According to official data, not-free countries have a cumulative growth rate of 85%, while free countries have a cumulative growth rate of 61% over the study period. That's a large difference, and providence evidence that having an authoritarian system is preferable from a growth perspective. However, according to the night-time light changes, in reality not-free countries have an average growth of 55% and free countries have a growth of 56%. In other words, if this paper is accurate, the advantage of not-free countries disappears entirely. Given that not-free countries are on average poorer than free countries and due to the catch-up effect poorer countries should have an easier time achieving higher growth, this makes not-free systems look worse than free systems.

Especially concerning China, if this paper is accurate we need to reassess their entire economic system. Based on Martinez's estimates, China's economy may only be half as big as the statistics show!
Discussion of night lights is here https://www.econsoapbox.com/p/economics ... ight-light

The original paper by Luis R Martinez is paywalled https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/e ... 086/720458
Abstract
I study the overstatement of economic growth in autocracies by comparing self-reported GDP figures to night-time light recorded by satellites from outer space. I show that the night-time-light elasticity of GDP is larger in authoritarian regimes, even accounting for differences in multiple country characteristics. This autocracy gradient in the elasticity is greater when the incentive to exaggerate economic growth is stronger or when the constraints on exaggeration are weaker. The results suggest that autocracies overstate yearly GDP growth by approximately 35%. Adjusting the data for manipulation leads to a more nuanced view on the recent economic success of autocracies.
Cyrano
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5481
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by Cyrano »

Thank you Ravi B ji.
There is a video posted in the China challenge thread, on how do the Chinese see us theme based on Chinese analyst publications and statements. Please watch it if you have time and share your comments.

Here is the link to that post:
viewtopic.php?f=1&t=7896&start=240#p2591325
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

Link: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=pxIzS66YemY



George Yeo speaks to STG on understanding China.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

George Yeo is basically right about China being a civilizational state and we need to consider that aspect. And it's mostly a homogenous Han state.
However, he is incorrect about the Britsh being the unifiers of India. In much more ancient times the Puranas say Bharat varsha is the land south of the Himalayas to the seas. And Ashoka was one among many rulers whose kingdom was larger than British India.
Such conceptual errors lead to misperceptions and should easily be avoided.
RaviB
BRFite
Posts: 261
Joined: 09 Jun 2020 14:32

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by RaviB »

Cyrano wrote:Thank you Ravi B ji.
There is a video posted in the China challenge thread, on how do the Chinese see us theme based on Chinese analyst publications and statements. Please watch it if you have time and share your comments.

Here is the link to that post:
viewtopic.php?f=1&t=7896&start=240#p2591325
Cyrano ji, thank you for the link. I had posted two long comments on how China sees us, way back in 2020. I think nothing much has changed and in fact reports from within China continue to reflect the same kind of thinking.

viewtopic.php?f=12&t=7810&p=2441143#p2441143

viewtopic.php?f=12&t=7810&p=2441202#p2441202
Vadivel
BRFite
Posts: 435
Joined: 07 Feb 2003 12:31
Location: Chennai
Contact:

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by Vadivel »

Absolutely brilliant documentary, must watch.

The mayor wants to rebuild the city, the only problem, he needs to relocate 3 lac people and demolish 15000 homes.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

An analysis of Wang Yi and Tony Blinken meeting readout by a Yale Lawyer.

https://twitter.com/MoritzRudolf/status ... aT_zQ&s=19
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

I would like a full text of the readout if possible.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

ramana wrote:I would like a full text of the readout if possible.

This tweet has the link

https://twitter.com/MoritzRudolf/status ... l6hMA&s=19
SSridhar
Forum Moderator
Posts: 25087
Joined: 05 May 2001 11:31
Location: Chennai

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by SSridhar »

In actuality, it was Wang Yi as the Director of Foreign Policy who delivered what appears to me to be the 'coup de grace' to Blinken. It was not Qin Gang or XJP. The typical Good Cop/Bad Cop. Earlier it used to be Yang Jiechi. IMO, China has clearly drawn the line, this far and no further.

I do not see any scope for better behaviour from China towards India after this.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

Let's see. Wang Yi telling of Blinken is important
chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 32294
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by chetak »

the cheen wouldn't have expected this

It will be seen by them as a huge loss of face




Image
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

Not really. Ananthakrishan from Chindu is a Chinese chicken hawk.
See he has no issues with China reducing reporter staff.
Pratyush
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12199
Joined: 05 Mar 2010 15:13

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by Pratyush »

I distinctly remember the Hindu recieving a press award from Xi Jinping, during his last visit to India in 2019.

But strangely I am not able to locate a news link.
SSridhar
Forum Moderator
Posts: 25087
Joined: 05 May 2001 11:31
Location: Chennai

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by SSridhar »

Pratyush wrote:I distinctly remember the Hindu recieving a press award from Xi Jinping, during his last visit to India in 2019.
I do not recall anything like that. The then Chinese Ambassador Sun Wei-Dong visited the office of The Hindu last year
Pratyush
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12199
Joined: 05 Mar 2010 15:13

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by Pratyush »

If I am not able to find the link then it didn't happen.

But my memory is quite reliable in such matters.

But am unable to substantiate that with established facts.
Manish_P
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5415
Joined: 25 Mar 2010 17:34

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by Manish_P »

The itinerary is available online in various publications, including the Hindu.

Fairly packed with extremely limited scope for any non-governmental ceremony. And the Hindu itself would have made a big-deal of it. (for PR)

Not saying you might be mistaken, maybe it was at some other time.. or maybe it was given by the Chinese ambassador/embassy and not Xi personally...

Maybe social media (twitter) might throw up some clues..
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

Link: viewtopic.php?p=2593853#p2593853

It is not really about China but do read the book review:

The Russian Understanding of War: Blurring the Lines Between War and Peace
Oscar Jonsson

This book analyzes the evolution of Russian military thought and how Russia's current thinking about war is reflected in recent crises. While other books describe current Russian practice, Oscar Jonsson provides the long view to show how Russian military strategic thinking has developed from the Bolshevik Revolution to the present. He closely examines Russian primary sources including security doctrines and the writings and statements of Russian military theorists and political elites. What Jonsson reveals is that Russia's conception of the very nature of war is now changing, as Russian elites see information warfare and political subversion as the most important ways to conduct contemporary war. Since information warfare and political subversion are below the traditional threshold of armed violence, this has blurred the boundaries between war and peace. Jonsson also finds that Russian leaders have, particularly since 2011-12, considered themselves to be at war with the United States and its allies, albeit with non-violent means. This book provides much-needed context and analysis to be able to understand recent Russian interventions in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, how to deter Russia on the eastern borders of NATO, and how the West must also learn to avoid inadvertent escalation.
Non-violent war.
Where did we see this?
XJP used PLA to wage non-violent war at Galwan in 2020 and Yangtse in 2022.
And this strategy is an adaptation of Russian doctrine.
He used troops from Easter Theater Command.
His troops were trained in Canada for winter warfare.
He told Russia that his troops were exercising in Tibet.
And his troops used non-firearm weapons like baseball bats wrapped in barbed wire and pole axes.

Basically, he was using force below violent conflict.
Even after Galwan, it was repeated in Yangtse!!!
SSridhar what do you folks think?
SSridhar
Forum Moderator
Posts: 25087
Joined: 05 May 2001 11:31
Location: Chennai

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by SSridhar »

ramana, Mao had used the same 'non-violent means' against the Russians (incidentally) in 1969 at Ussuri before a bigger clash broke out and more 'violent means' were employed by the Russians who flattened the Chinese. For other reasons, they eventually decided to settle the border issue with the Chinese through 'non-violent means'.

The Chinese have not yet learnt that they have no control over the escalation ladder when they start 'non-violent wars' against FSU/Russia or India. This is not only true in military matters but also in political & economic matters. Politically, countries are ganging up against China. Economically, it leads to supply-chain decoupling/derisking.

Or, did the Chinese learn a wrong lesson from 1969 'non-violent provocations'? Do they think that the non-violent means might provoke a violent reaction but would eventually lead to a favourable non-violent resolution?
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

PLA has been using jostling shoving etc even in the 1950s as recounted by B.N. Mullick and a host of writers.
This non-violent combat tactic show PRC has a higher acceptance of risk and lowers the threshold for the use of force whether it involves firearms or not.
It is only one more step up the escalation ladder.

Taking the long view after the PVNR-Deng Peace and Tranquility Agreement of the 1990s, the 2010 decade marks a new escalation in PLA tactics. This was called Salami slicing tactics for lack of a better word.
However, it looks like part of the new way of war that Russia developed and China has also adopted.
Essentially it makes the borderline between peace and violence gray.
Knowing how China thinks about war is important for that is how they will conduct war.
One of my hobbies is reading USIS Journal.

I am appalled at the copycat articles published by the retired officer coterie without any new thinking.
It is like my complaint about IDSA papers which were a huge repository of Western thought passed off as strategy!
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

The “Wolf Warrior Cycle”: Chinese Blockbusters in the Age of the Belt and Road Initiative

Abstract
This article concentrates on four Chinese blockbuster movies, Wolf Warrior (2015), Operation Mekong (2016), Wolf Warrior 2 (2017) and Operation Red Sea (2018), referring to them collectively as the “wolf warrior cycle” on the basis of their shared themes of China's overseas military actions. To understand why films addressing this topic have emerged since the mid-2010s, the article employs a critical political economy approach and situates the wolf warrior cycle in China's transforming foreign policies. It argues that the Belt and Road Initiative, one of the state's prominent foreign policies and global strategies in this period, played a crucial role in shaping the production of the wolf warrior cycle films under a trend of the politicization of commercial blockbusters in the Chinese film industry. In turn, these films contributed to the formation of the “wolf warrior diplomacy” image by reinforcing the proactiveness of China's diplomacy and nationalistic stereotypes in Chinese society towards international relations.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

We have to breakdown the code in Mandate of Heaven. The loss of MOH ended most of the dynasties.
Post Reply