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Understanding New China after 19th Congress

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby chola » 26 Oct 2017 20:54

ramana wrote:Are there no Indian op-eds on China? Has the China watcher community collapsed in India?


Did we ever really have one to begin with?

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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby ramana » 26 Oct 2017 21:09

Future of China: Muscle
by Prof. Kerry Brown, Kings College, London.




Editor's Note: Kerry Brown is a professor of Chinese studies at King's College London and director of the Lau China Institute. The views expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author.


(CNN) — China is on a mission. That much at least one can conclude from the nearly three-and-a-half hour speech that President Xi Jinping gave in Beijing at the start of the 19th Communist Party Congress.

"Mission" is an all-important word that Xi used many times, often beside the other familiar term, "modernization." China has a mission to be a rich, strong, powerful place in the next two to three decades, Xi said Wednesday. This is a potent message. It is not surprising that Xi devoted so much time to conveying it. It is also probably about the only single message he can speak to with his diverse audience and not receive any dissent in response -- at least domestically.

In speaking so much about China's role in the world, the most senior leader of the party running it is also admitting that China also needs that world -- needs better-quality intellectual, trade and security dialogue with it.

The problem with this message also creates a shrill nationalist tone -- and that grates with the outside world.

When it came in particular to Hong Kong, Taiwan and dealing with the South and East China seas, Xi's language was categorical and strong. No space for anything looking remotely like it would lead to separatism, he said. No engagement with ideas of compromise and pluralism. There is a hint of jubilation in the way Xi talks about these issues now.

In the era of Trump and US distraction, Xi can, and did, speak with a latitude and openness about China's global role no previous leader has ever deployed. No wonder predecessors Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao looked on enviously (though one of them was spotted looking at his watch).


On issues of foreign relations, Xi focuses less on specifics and more on a common humanity -- one that has an interest in China working with the world, and the world working with China. But this occurred after some tough language on the role of the military, and the subliminal message that for China, there was no question that it had the right to not only look strong, but, through its army and weaponry, to be strong.

Such a long speech, laying out over a dozen objectives with such thematic broadness (culture, ideology, morals -- Xi addressed them all), cannot but be taken as a sign, in itself, of ambition. The whole performance bespoke a leader with a sense of historic occasion. The moment of Chinese realization of modernity is imminent. And it is happening increasingly on Chinese terms. Or at least, that's the way it seems to many in the outside world.


But a more reflective interpretation of the speech might see the generous amounts of time devoted to military issues and international affairs in a different light -- as a sign that the achievement of China's dream relies as never before on a world that will at least cooperate with it -- even if they don't proactively support it.

A China with a global vision will either get its way through enforcement -- which will be immensely disruptive and risky -- or consent. And consent takes at least two.


Quite a good summary of the long speech.

So China is ready for the 21st century.
And its leadership understands what is need to become the leaders.

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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby ramana » 26 Oct 2017 21:30

ZeroHedge:
m
Xi's Chinese Dream

Interesting that no one talks about Trump's dream. Quite patronizing headline.

Xi himself, in his 3½-hour speech at the start of the 19th Party Congress, pointed to a rather simplified “socialist democracy” – extolling its virtues as the only counter-model to Western liberal democracy. Economically, the debate remains open on whether this walks and talks more like “neoliberalism with Chinese characteristics”.


{Odd that while talking about democracy which is a Western concept for China, Xi has remade the President into the neo Emperor with mandate from the Party instead of Heaven. This is Xi Jinping contribution. }

All the milestones for China in the immediate future have been set.
◦“Moderately prosperous society” by 2020.
◦Basically modernized nation by 2035.
◦Rich and powerful socialist nation by 2050
.

{This is Grand Strategy of Xi Jinping's China. He has laid out the milestones and the dates.}

Xi himself, since 2013, has encapsulated the process in one mantra; the “Chinese dream”. The dream must become reality in a little over three decades. The inexorable modernization drive unleashed by Deng’s reforms has lasted a little less than four decades. Recent history tell us there’s no reason to believe phase 2 of this seismic Sino-Renaissance won’t be fulfilled.

Xi emphasized, “the dreams of the Chinese people and those of other peoples around the world are closely linked. The realization of the Chinese dream will not be possible without a peaceful international environment and a stable international order.”

He mentioned only briefly the New Silk Roads, a.k.a. Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as having “created a favorable environment for the country’s overall development”. He didn’t dwell on BRI’s ambition and extraordinary scope, as he does in every major international summit as well as in Davos earlier this year.

But still it was implicit that to arrive at what Xi defines as a “community of common destiny for mankind”, BRI is China’s ultimate tool. BRI, a geopolitical/geoeconomic game-changer, is in fact Xi’s – and China’s – organizing foreign policy concept and driver up to 2050.

Xi has clearly understood that global leadership implies being a top provider, mostly to the global South, of connectivity, infrastructure financing, comprehensive technical assistance, construction hardware and myriad other trappings of “modernization”.

It does not hurt that this trade/commerce/investment onslaught helps to internationalize the yuan.

It’s easy to forget that BRI, an unparalleled multinational connectivity drive set to economically link all points Asia to Europe and Africa, was announced only three years ago, in Astana (Central Asia) and Jakarta (Southeast Asia).

What was originally known as the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road were endorsed by the Third Plenum of the 18th CCP Central Committee in November 2013. Only after the release of an official document, “Visions and Actions on Jointly Building Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st Century Maritime Silk Roads”, in March 2015, the whole project was finally named BRI.

According to the official Chinese timeline, we’re only at the start of phase 2. Phase 1, from 2013 to 2016, was “mobilization”. “Planning”, from 2016 to 2021, is barely on (and that explains why few major projects are online). “Implementation” is supposed to start in 2021, one year before Xi’s new term expires, and go all the way to 2049.

The horizon thus is 2050, coinciding with Xi’s “rich and powerful socialist nation” dream. There’s simply no other comprehensive, inclusive, far-reaching, financially solid development program on the global market. Certainly not India’s Asia-Africa Growth Corridor (AAGC).


Have BRI, will travel

It starts with Hong Kong. When Xi said, “We will continue to support Hong Kong and Macau in integrating their own development into the overall development of the country”, he meant Hong Kong configured as a major BRI financing hub – its new role after a recent past of business facilitator between China and the West.


Hong Kong’s got what it takes; convertible currency; total capital mobility; rule of law; no tax on interest, dividends and capital gains; total access to China’s capital market/savings; and last but not least, Beijing’s support.

Enter the dream of myriad financing packages (public-private; equity-debt; short-long term bonds). Hong Kong’s BRI role will be of the Total Package international financial center (venture capital; private equity; flotation of stocks and bonds; investment banking; mergers and acquisitions; reinsurance) interlinked with the Greater Bay Area – the 11 cities (including Guangzhou and Shenzhen) of the Pearl River Delta (light/heavy manufacturing; hi-tech venture capitalists, start-ups, investors; top research universities).

That ties up with Xi’s emphasis on innovation; “We will strengthen basic research in applied sciences, launch major national science and technology projects, and prioritize innovation in key generic technologies, cutting-edge frontier technologies, modern engineering technologies, and disruptive technologies.”

The integration of the Greater Bay Area is bound to inspire, fuel, and in some cases even mould some of BRI’s key projects. The Eurasian Land Bridge from Xinjiang to Western Russia (China and Kazakhstan are actively turbo-charging their joint free trade zone at Khorgos). The China-Mongolia-Russia economic corridor. The connection of the Central Asian “stans” to West Asia – Iran and Turkey. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) from Xinjiang all the way to Gwadar in the Arabian Sea – capable of sparking an “economic revolution” according to Islamabad. The China-Indochina corridor from Kunming to Singapore. The Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) corridor (assuming India does not boycott it). The Maritime Silk Road from coastal southeast China all the way to the Mediterranean, from Piraeus to Venice.

Yiwu-London freight trains, Shanghai-Tehran freight trains, the Turkmenistan to Xinjiang gas pipeline – these are all facts on the ground. Along the way, the technologies and tools of infrastructure connectivity – applied to high-speed rail networks, power plants, solar farms, motorways, bridges, ports, pipelines – will be closely linked with financing by the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the security-economic cooperation imperatives of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) to build the new Eurasia from Shanghai to Rotterdam. Or, to evoke Vladimir Putin’s original vision, even before BRI was launched, “from Lisbon to Vladivostok”.

Xi did not spell it out, but Beijing will do everything to stay as independent as possible from the Western Central Bank system, with the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) to be avoided in as many trade deals as possible to the benefit of yuan-based transactions or outright barter. The petrodollar will be increasingly bypassed (it’s already happening between China and Iran, and Beijing sooner rather than later will demand it from Saudi Arabia.)

The end result, by 2050, will be, barring inevitable, complex glitches, an integrated market of 4.5 billion people mostly using local currencies for bilateral and multilateral trade, or a basket of currencies (yuan-ruble-rial-yen-rupee).



Xi has laid China’s cards – as well as the road map – on the table. As far as the Chinese Dream is concerned, it’s now clear; Have BRI, Will Travel.






I had suggested that Mumbai/Surat has to be restored as the capital center of the world to pre-colonial days.

Xi is doing it with Hong Kong.

Just as the West brought transportation connectivity to the world via sea transport and later air transport the BRI will do the same for the South or less developed world.

India’s Asia-Africa Growth Corridor (AAGC) can complement this and help negate Western dominance of Asia that started with Portuguese voyages of Vasco Da Gama.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby ramana » 26 Oct 2017 21:34

chola wrote:
ramana wrote:Are there no Indian op-eds on China? Has the China watcher community collapsed in India?


Did we ever really have one to begin with?


yes.

JNU has a China Studies Center.
Delhi has CCAS run by Jaywant Ranade.

Chennai has a China studies center. Col Hariharan

There are China Studies cells in IDSA, and many universities.
Instead I see the Indian media running op-eds from foreign news agencies despite expertise in India.

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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby SSridhar » 27 Oct 2017 05:02

The Hindu had a surprising take yesterday on the proceedings of the 19th CPC Congress.

Are the Indian comrades unhappy with Xi?

My critical comments however were not published.

The Life of Xi - Editorial, The Hindu
When Xi Jinping was elected the leader of China and the Communist Party five years ago, many had predicted that he would become the most powerful leader since Deng Xiaoping, the architect of the country’s economic rise. They may be wrong. With the 19th party congress, which concluded on Tuesday and has written his name and ideas into the party constitution, Mr. Xi now appears to be the strongest leader since Mao Zedong. This amassing of Mao-like powers could also allow Mr. Xi to stay in power beyond the usual two terms. Two of Mr. Xi’s predecessors had stepped down after two terms to ensure an orderly transition in the party and the government, where there is no dearth of talented and ambitious leaders. The practice has been for the mid-term party congress to choose the likely successor of the incumbent and groom him over five years to eventually take over the reins. However, the party doesn’t seem to have chosen anyone this time. All five new faces in the seven-member Politburo Standing Committee, the highest decision-making body in China, are in their 60s, which lends credence to speculation that Mr. Xi is not planning to step down when his second term ends in 2022. Even if he does step down from the government, given the stature he has already achieved within the party, he could retain a Deng-like sway over policy matters.

In Mr. Xi’s world view, China has passed two eras — the revolutionary era launched by Mao and the economic reforms spearheaded by Deng. The “Xi Jinping thought on socialism with Chinese characteristics for a New Era” that has been written into the party charter marks “a new era”. This one is about making China economically stronger and geopolitically more influential. In his three-and-a-half-hour speech at the congress, Mr. Xi placed great emphasis on strengthening the military and resisting “the whole range of erroneous viewpoints”. The message is that the era of “peaceful rise” is over. The more combative foreign policy Mr. Xi’s administration is pursuing will continue, perhaps more aggressively, while at home he will consolidate more power. But this doesn’t mean it will be a cakewalk. If China takes a more aggressive, militaristic view of its neighbourhood, it could trigger an aggressive response from neighbours such as India and Japan. North Korea remains as much a foreign policy problem for Mr. Xi as for President Donald Trump. China’s export-oriented economy is still not free from the global economic whirlwinds. Mr. Xi will have to factor in global market concerns while taking key economic decisions at home. Besides, though the transition in the Communist Party has been orderly at least in the last 30 years, it was not free from troubles. Mr. Xi would be mindful of how he projects his own power, lest it triggers a backlash. The challenge before him is to find a balance between his ambitions and the realities that China confronts today.

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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby SSridhar » 27 Oct 2017 05:06

This is the comment I sent, which was rejected by The Hindu

Xi has got the 25-member Politburo and more importantly the 7-member Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) stuffed with his loyalists now. 60% in the Politburo and 4 out of the 6 in the PSC are Xi loyalists. Considering all the powers that he has accumulated, including those of the Prime Minister, Xi must be considered as the most powerful President ever in China, more than even Chairman Mao. Xi hasn't even identified his successor thus signalling a longer term for himself at the helm. Internally, he is going to crackdown on dissenters, Uyghurs, Tibetans & in HongKong. He will take a tougher action against Taiwan. He wants CPC to get a stranglehold internally as during Mao's reign & push his policies. His speech gives enough indication to that effect. Ever since he took over in 2012, Xi has made it known through actions against all neighbours and in South China Sea that the 'peaceful rise of China' was over. The region and the world are in for a tumultuous period ahead because of Xi.

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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby devesh » 27 Oct 2017 05:18

Rocket Man needs to watch out. Xi might test out the kinks in his new party and CMC structure to make changes in NK. Xi has shown no signs that he respects KJ. I think PRC elites would rather prefer a more pliant regime in NoKo which doesn't draw so much attention.

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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby SSridhar » 27 Oct 2017 07:52

More information is now emerging as to what happened in the 19th Congress of the CPC.

The ruling clique did away with voting to elect members (though it seems to have been used only during Deng's & Hu's periods). Xi himself was elected through ballots. However, now Xi dispensed with voting. Instead he and some members of the Central Committee of the CPC met randomly-selected members of the 19th Congress and based on their inputs chose the members of the Politburo and the PSC !!

Now, what is this Central Committee? It is a 400-member political body of top leaders of CPC that meets once a year in what is called a plenary. Members are elected, through secret ballot, for 5-year terms. This body elects the General Secretary of the CPC, the Politburo and the members of the PSC and CMC (Central Military Commission). Technically, the most powerful body.

In the 19th Congress, Xi directly met over 50 such randomly-selected members (out of the nearly 2300 members of the 19th Congress) in face-to-face meetings while other members of the Central Committee met with another 200 cadres. Voting was still followed for namesake but more weightage was given to the opinion of the cadre-comrades. In other words, voting was a fraud on the delegates. One-tenth of the delegates were interviewed for their opinion and members of the Politburo & PSC were selected !

Conveniently, Xi has accused some of those ousted by him and his now-retired anti-corruption chief of CCDI (appropriately termed Central Committee for Discipline Inspection, love the Chinese for inane terminologies) Wang Qishan, as having rigged 'voting' in the previous two Congress (i.e. 18th & 17th) that has necessitated the new changes !! That's it.

Simply brilliant.

In the meanwhile, the Chinese Defence Ministry spoksperson says, "Xi’s plan to strengthen the military would be fully implemented and his authority would be upheld". This, along with the recent (just weeks before the 19th Congress) ouster of the topmost CMC General (next only to Xi who is, of course, the Commander), Fang Fenghui, along with his deputy indicate that disloyalty in the top echelons of the PLA was true. The two have since been arrested as well. Including Chairman Mao, most General Secretaries/Presidents have struggled with PLA. In August, 2017, Xi also changed the service chiefs for the Air Force and the Army bringing in Ding Laihang as the Air Force Chief and Han Weiguo as the Army Chief. They were all, along with Navy Chief Shen Jinlong who had taken over in January 2017, rumoured to be close to Xi. Xi, of course, started as a mishu (secretary) to a military strategist in his initial days and the contacts with the armed forces had apparently remained. The first thing that Xi did after getting elected in the 19th Congress was to meet the members of the CMC.

Usually, the retiring General Secretary of the Party also chooses the successor to the person about to be installed as the Party’s General Secretary. Thus, when Deng Xiaoping retired (though he didn't hold any post such as President or General Secretary of CPC), Hu Jintao was selected as Jiang Zemin’s successor. When Jiang retired, Xi Jinping was identified as the successor to Hu Jintao and when Hu retired Sun Zhengcai was identified as a potential successor to Xi in c. 2022. This has led to a smooth succession, grooming of the successor and no instability. It is this which has been broken now by Xi Jinping by ousting and then arresting Sun Zhengcai and also not identifying any successor. The ages of the members of the new PSC are also such that there is nobody who could become the President.

Thus, we have to look not only at the 19th Congress of the CPC but also at the paths of glory that lead to Xi's second term at the 19th Congress.

I am reminded of Thomas Gray's Elegy Written in a Country Churchyard,

The curfew tolls the knell of parting day,
. . . .
. . . .
The boast of heraldry, the pomp of power,
And all that beauty, all that wealth ever gave,
Await alike the inevitable hour.
The paths of glory lead but to the grave.

. . . .


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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby ramana » 27 Oct 2017 10:24

SS, Et tu

That was a favorite poem in high school.

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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby ramana » 27 Oct 2017 10:25

Looks like Xi Jinping launched his own coup.

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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby SSridhar » 27 Oct 2017 10:28

ramana wrote:That was a favorite poem.in high school.

Me too. Nothing has surpassed its beauty, melancholy and the hard truth. Not a word there can be substituted without spoiling its beauty.

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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby SSridhar » 27 Oct 2017 10:51

ramana wrote:https://twitter.com/DefenceReview/status/923761783440994304

From the above,
Not all-powerful

Contrary to what many have written, Xi might not be all-powerful; he still has to deal with Party norms and traditions: “he is careful not to break the age rule and to follow the order of seniority. These political norms are critical for the 89-million member Communist Party to have consensus at the top and maintain stability,” wrote the SCMP which also noted: “Xi is also not blindly following the established path. He has made a decision with far-reaching consequences in not naming a clear-cut successor and promoting his choice to the Politburo Standing Committee.”

Another sign that Xi may not have full control, is the reduced size of the CMC which has only 7 members (apart from the two Vice Chairmen: Xu Qiliang, Zhang Youxia, others are Wei Fenghe, Li Zuocheng, Miao Hua, Zhang Shengmin) compared to 11 during the previous Congress.

I have to differ with Dr. Ashok Kapur on the above assessment that Xi is 'Not all-powerful'.

As I have said before, he has not been able to ride roughshod over the Party. We do not know whether it was a deliberate ploy or there was some pushback. If it is the latter, this pushback is meagre and not worthwhile considering as any challenge at all.

Xi is a complete party man. He recognizes the importance and reach of the Party apparatus and is trying to strengthen it. This is a large part of his marathon speech as well. The assertion that he is careful not to break the age rule does not confirm anything. For example, he has chosen to defy the usual process of identifying his successor. He might have cleverly used the age-rule, unwritten though, to purge power-centres that could have developed even if they were all his lieutenants.

On the question of the CMC, it can also be interpreted that the reduction from 11 to 8 is possibly because Xi wants more centralization. The three serrvice chiefs are excluded though the Rocket Force Chief (the fourth service line that Xi introduced lately) is in. Xi is already the Commander of the Armed Forces and he is also the Chief of the CMC. So, the interpretation that reduction in strength of CMC is somehow a weakness for XI is incorrect, IMO. Actually, it is to the contrary.

If we look overall, Xi has accumulated power at every opportunity since c. 2013. There is neither lessening of the grip nor any reasonable challenge.

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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby Baikul » 27 Oct 2017 15:08

The old China is the same as the new China.

1. By their very insular, inwards looking, nature Chinese will never have the world domination they wish for. In fact- and IMO- the Chinese leaders who aspire for world domination, or even world integration, will be cut down by their own. This is just another recurring phase in their history, before they give up expansionism and go back to contemplating their innate magnificence.

2. China has always had ambitious leaders - at the center or periphery- willing to rebel against Peking/ Beijing and cut down all in their path to become the next Son of Heaven. Can we find this next warmly awaited generation of Chinese gentlemen?

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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby SSridhar » 27 Oct 2017 18:53

China border talks official elevated - Atul Aneja, The Hindu
Yang Jiechi, China’s point person for the boundary talks with India, has been elevated to the 25-member Politburo, the second highest rung in the country’s power hierarchy.

Mr. Yang has been China’s Special Representative at the boundary talks with India during President Xi Jinping’s first term in office that began in 2012.

Till his promotion that was announced during the course of the just concluded 19th Party Congress, Mr. Yang was a member of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) — a category lower than the Politburo.

The ruling CPC’s decision to elevate him to the Politburo is widely viewed as a signal of the President’s trust in China’s top diplomat.


Yang Jiechi is just not a Special Representative (SR) for Boundary Talks between India and China, but he was also a well respected Foreign Minister of PRC earlier.

The legendary Dai Binnguo, who has been involved in border talks since c. 2003, retired along with the Chinese President Hu Jintao in March 2013. He was replaced by Yang Jeichi who is regarded as a cautious and unyielding negotiator.

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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby Suraj » 27 Oct 2017 20:18

Here's why I think Eleven wasn't simply lost for choices of successor to pick from: he's been paramount leader since 2012, and has immediately consolidated power in his hand the way no one has since Mao. Deng was too cautious to repeat Mao's mistakes. Jiang was beholden to Deng. Hu was just a quiet technocrat. Eleven has pushed aside several challengers, like Bo Xilai back in 2012-13 right after coming to power.

His effort to build power is not a recent phenomenon - it's been going on since the day he came to power. He's had five years to find successors who are good enough, and to elevate them to PSC now. But not, he didn't elevate Sun Zhencai. Or Hu Chunhua. Instead he elevates a bunch of yes men fossils who are already mid 60s - a strict no no according to Deng's Rules.

It's a testament to why he has no desire to step away. Every paramount leader is entitled to his priorities and doctrine, but not to explicitly breaking the policy of elevating suitable successors in the 5 year plenary. Even Eleven joined the PSC in 2007, i.e. the 5th year plenary of Hu Jintao, and was subsequently elevated in 2012. Hu Jintao joined PSC in 1997, 5 years before elevation to leader in 2002. Someone was supposed to be elevated to PSC now, for rise to paramountcy in 2022.

It's easy enough to claim he's going to figure it out, but China doesn't really work like that. They have a very unstable political summit that has been stable for 2 generations now solely because of Deng's Rules. Now they're run by someone who doesn't follow those rules, and actively projects himself as a parallel to Mao. Only the 50+ generation in China remember those horrors.

For India, it's a good thing that China is entering a period of political turmoil.

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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby ramana » 27 Oct 2017 22:38

What I am saying is Xi J has broken with the past and has managed his opposition in party and PLA.
he also broke away from the standby leader in waiting tradition as he wants new leaders in his mold to achieve the goals he set out.

So far the 19th Congress outcome shows they are fine with this.

I know he as acquired absolute power. We all see that. Need more analysis than saying he is powerful.

More relevant for future is what he plans to do with it?

The zero hedge says he has those three time-bound goals which are open.

What is this Socialism with Chinese Characteristics (SCC)?
Can we look at that?

Is this SCC the new Buddhism?
No matter we are seeing a transition and lets Zero-Base budget this phenomenon.

What I mean is forget the past and look at the present.

Start with clean slate.

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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby Suraj » 28 Oct 2017 00:10

ramana wrote:What I am saying is Xi J has broken with the past and has managed his opposition in party and PLA.

It is too early, and there's insufficient information, to conclude the latter part.

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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby ramana » 28 Oct 2017 00:48

Lets see.

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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby ricky_v » 28 Oct 2017 01:38

Some points regarding the people at the inner sanctum:
1) Han Zheng seems like an offering to the Shanghai clique, also has a "different" career path wrt to others in the cpc, was supposed to be the Shanghai PS but Xi was parachuted from another province instead.
2)Wang Hunning developed all the "modern" concepts found in the red book barring Mao's, interestingly has never served as a provincial mayor or other legislative-executive post, purely there then for propaganda reasons, the eastern Goebbels as it were.
As for the successors, I think Cai Qi will either become whip or heir in the next round, he has defied normal conventions of getting tapped for key posts, with Hu chunhua after him.

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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby Rudradev » 28 Oct 2017 02:40

Not strictly related to the 19th Congress, but it seems like PRC is prosecuting a "reverse opium war" against the US.

See the DEA's Threat Report for 2017: pages 57-66 are of interest
https://www.dea.gov/docs/DIR-040-17_2017-NDTA.pdf

Yesterday, Trump declared the "opioid epidemic" a major public health emergency in the US. 65,000 people died from opioid overdoses last year alone in the US.

"Opioid" users typically progress from prescription opioids (greatly overprescribed in the US) to heroin. However, heroin itself is increasingly losing market share, and even becoming supplanted by synthetic opioids like fentanyl and carfentanil. These substances are far more potent than heroin and often used to "cut" heroin for street sale.

So where does China come into the picture?

Most of the heroin in the US is produced from opium poppies grown and processed in Latin America, and brought in through Mexico. Sources like Afghanistan have largely dried up in the last few years.

However, the vast majority of synthetic fentanyl derives ultimately from PRC. It is cheaper than heroin to source ($4000 vs $6000 per kg) and far more profitable because of its potency. Some fentanyl produced illegally in China is smuggled directly into the US; some is smuggled in via Canada or through Mexico where it is added to heroin by the opium cartels.

In addition, fentanyl is legally imported into the US by pharmaceutical companies, some of which is diverted to the illicit drug trade. This legally imported fentanyl is very largely of Chinese manufacture as well.

I mention this here because the illicit drug market share of synthetic opioids like fentanyl and carfentanil has leaped tremendously in a very short span of time. See the graphs on pages 60 and 61.

The number of fentanyl "exhibits" (individual DEA seizures) in the US hovered mostly between ~400-700 per year from 2004 to 2012. In 2013 there were 934 exhibits. In 2014, 5544 exhibits. In 2015, 14051 exhibits. In 2016, over 30000 exhibits.

Likewise the number of annual fentanyl-related overdose deaths have risen exponentially over the last 4 years, exceeding 10000 US citizens in 2014.

The map (Fig 57 on page 66) shows the many routes of fentanyl supply to the US, all originating in China.

Following the Trump announcement, the opioid crisis is set to take center stage in American policymaking. Ironically this has occurred within a week of the 19th Party Congress and Xi Jinping's elevation to supremo status in PRC.

Along this will come the realization that, for all Xi Jinping's supposed "anti-corruption" crusading, the fentanyl output from China to feed the illicit drug trade in the USA has geometrically increased. The conclusions are that (1) Xi Jinping has simply been using "anti-corruption" as a pretext to neutralize political foes and (2) the PRC does not *want* to curtail the flow of this highly dangerous, addictive drug to the US at some level.

I am not yet sure what to make of all this. But China is not a Colombia, Mexico, or even Thailand or Afghanistan where the US could use its clout to shake down suppliers of illicit drugs. Watch this space, however... I would not be surprised if this becomes a factor in US policymaking towards China in the near future.

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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby ramana » 28 Oct 2017 02:50

Ricky, Thanks for contributing.
Statecraft requires both left hand and right hand doctrines. US has been successful projecting image of right hand while using left hand. It's possible we are seeing the same wrt Xi Jinping.

Xi clearly working for Asian and world domination.
First one requires US to leave Asia.
The US Japan security umbrella or pact is lynch pin.
Koreans even now hate Japanese occupation more than anything else.
So NoKo nukes will make Japan reach for the maal.
If that happens why the umbrella?
I recall papers talking about why 1968 cut off for NPT. It was to preclude German and Japanese breakout.
Something to ruminate.

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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby SSridhar » 28 Oct 2017 03:46

Rudradev, reverse Opium Wars?

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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby SSridhar » 28 Oct 2017 04:06

A result of the 19th CPC Congress.

Support connectivity but it has to be open, equitable: India on OBOR - PTI
India on Friday hoped that the direction and the policy set by the Communist Party Congress in China will further promote Sino-India relations and contribute to peace and stability in the region.

The remarks by external affairs ministry spokesperson Raveesh Kumar came in response to a query on Chinese President Xi Jinping starting his second five-year term and ordering the country's Army to intensify its combat readiness by focusing on how to win wars during the Congress of the Communist party.

"Our Prime Minister had sent his best wishes to President Xi for the success of the Congress before it met and subsequently congratulated him on his re-election as the General Secretary of the Communist Party," he said.

"We hope that the direction and the policy set by the Congress will further promote our bilateral relations and contribute to peace and stability in the region," Kumar said.

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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby Rudradev » 28 Oct 2017 04:06

SSridhar,

You must be familiar with the original Opium Wars, waged by Britain and its allies against China:
http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-bu ... hina-17212

Here is a quick recap:


Starting in in the mid-1700s, the British began trading opium grown in India in exchange for silver from Chinese merchants. Opium — an addictive drug that today is refined into heroin — was illegal in England, but was used in Chinese traditional medicine.

However, recreational use was illegal and not widespread. That changed as the British began shipping in tons of the drug using a combination of commercial loopholes and outright smuggling to get around the ban.

Chinese officials taking their own cut abetted the practice. American ships carrying Turkish-grown opium joined in the narcotics bonanza in the early 1800s. Consumption of opium in China skyrocketed, as did profits.

The Daoguang Emperor became alarmed by the millions of drug addicts — and the flow of silver leaving China. As is often the case, the actions of a stubborn idealist brought the conflict to a head. In 1839 the newly appointed Imperial Commissioner Lin Zexu instituted laws banning opium throughout China
.

He arrested 1,700 dealers, and seized the crates of the drug already in Chinese harbors and even on ships at sea. He then had them all destroyed. That amounted to 2.6 million pounds of opium thrown into the ocean. Lin even wrote a poem apologizing to the sea gods for the pollution.

Angry British traders got the British government to promise compensation for the lost drugs, but the treasury couldn’t afford it. War would resolve the debt.

But the first shots were fired when the Chinese objected to the British attacking one of their own merchant ships.

Chinese authorities had indicated they would allow trade to resume in non-opium goods. Lin Zexu even sent a letter to Queen Victoria pointing out that as England had a ban on the opium trade, they were justified in instituting one too.

It never reached her, but eventually did appear in the Sunday Times.

Instead, the Royal Navy established a blockade around Pearl Bay to protest the restriction of free trade … in drugs. Two British ships carrying cotton sought to run the blockade in November 1839. When the Royal Navy fired a warning shot at the second, The Royal Saxon, the Chinese sent a squadron of war junks and fire-rafts to escort the merchant.


HMS Volage’s Captain, unwilling to tolerate the Chinese “intimidation,” fired a broadside at the Chinese ships. HMS Hyacinth joined in. One of the Chinese ships exploded and three more were sunk. Their return fire wounded one British sailor.

Seven months later, a full-scale expeditionary force of 44 British ships launched an invasion of Canton. The British had steam ships, heavy cannon, Congreve rockets and infantry equipped with rifles capable of accurate long range fire. Chinese state troops — “bannermen” — were still equipped with matchlocks accurate only up to 50 yards and a rate of fire of one round per minute.

Antiquated Chinese warships were swiftly destroyed by the Royal Navy. British ships sailed up the Zhujiang and Yangtze rivers, occupying Shanghai along the way and seizing tax-collection barges, strangling the Qing government’s finances. Chinese armies suffered defeat after defeat.

When the Qing sued for peace in 1842, the British could set their own terms. The Treaty of Nanjing stipulated that Hong Kong would become a British territory, and that China would be forced to establish five treaty ports in which British traders could trade anything they wanted with anybody they wanted to. A later treaty forced the Chinese to formally recognize the British as equals and grant their traders favored status.


More War, More Opium:

Imperialism was on the upswing by the mid-1800s. France muscled into the treaty port business as well in 1843. The British soon wanted even more concessions from China — unrestricted trade at any port, embassies in Beijing and an end to bans on selling opium in the Chinese mainland.

One tactic the British used to further their influence was registering the ships of Chinese traders they dealt with as British ships.

The pretext for the second Opium War is comical in its absurdity. In October 1856, Chinese authorities seized a former pirate ship, the Arrow, with a Chinese crew and with an expired British registration. The captain told British authorities that the Chinese police had taken down the flag of a British ship.

The British demanded the Chinese governor release the crew. When only nine of the 14 returned, the British began a bombardment of the Chinese forts around Canton and eventually blasted open the city walls.

British Liberals, under William Gladstone, were upset at the rapid escalation and protested fighting a new war for the sake of the opium trade in parliament. However, they lost seats in an election to the Tories under Lord Palmerston. He secured the support needed to prosecute the war.

China was in no position to fight back, as it was then embroiled in the devastating Taiping Rebellion, a peasant uprising led by a failed civil-service examinee claiming to be the brother of Jesus Christ. The rebels had nearly seized Beijing and still controlled much of the country.

Once again, the Royal Navy demolished its Chinese opponents, sinking 23 junks in the opening engagement near Hong Kong and seizing Guangzhou. Over the next three years, British ships worked their way up the river, capturing several Chinese forts through a combination of naval bombardment and amphibious assault.

France joined in the war — its excuse was the execution of a French missionary who had defied the ban on foreigners in Guangxi province. Even the United States became briefly involved after a Chinese fort took pot shots at long distance at an American ship.

In the Battle of the Pearl River Forts, a U.S. Navy a force of three ships and 287 sailors and marines took four forts by storm, capturing 176 cannons and fighting off a counterattack of 3,000 Chinese infantry.
The United States remained officially neutral.


Russia did not join in the fighting, but used the war to pressure China into ceding a large chunk of its northeastern territory, including the present-day city of Vladivostok.

When foreign envoys drew up the next treaty in 1858 the terms, were even more crushing to the Qing Dynasty’s authority. Ten more cities were designated as treaty ports, foreigners would have free access to the Yangtze river and the Chinese mainland, and Beijing would open embassies to England, France and Russia.

The Xianfeng Emperor at first agreed to the treaty, but then changed his mind, sending Mongolian general Sengge Rinchen to man the Taku Forts on the waterway leading to Beijing. The Chinese repelled a British attempt to take the forts by sea in June 1859, sinking four British ships. A year later, an overland assault by 11,000 British and 6,700 French troops succeeded.

When a British diplomatic mission came to insist on adherence to the treaty, the Chinese took the envoy hostage, and tortured many in the delegation to death. The British High Commissioner of Chinese Affairs, Lord Elgar, decided to assert dominance and sent the army into Beijing.

British and French rifles gunned down 10,000 charging Mongolian cavalrymen at the Battle of Eight Mile Bridge, leaving Beijing defenseless. Emperor Xianfeng fled. In order to wound the Emperor’s “pride as well as his feeling” in the words of Lord Elgar, British and French troops looted and destroyed the historic Summer Palace.

The new revised treaty imposed on China legalized both Christianity and opium, and added Tianjin — the major city close to Beijing — to the list of treaty ports. It allowed British ships to transport Chinese indentured laborers to the United States, and fined the Chinese government eight million silver dollars in indemnities.

The Western presence in China became so ubiquitous, and so widely detested, that an anti-Western popular revolt, the Boxer Rebellion, broke out in 1899. The hapless Qing Dynasty, under the stewardship of Dowager Empress Cixi, first tried to clamp down on the violence before throwing its support behind it — just in time for a multi-national military force of U.S., Russian, German, Austrian, Italian, French, Japanese and British troops to arrive and put down the rebellion.

It then spent an entire year looting Beijing, Tianjin and the surrounding countryside in reprisal.

‘Century of Humiliation’:

It’s hard to over-emphasize the impact of the Opium Wars on modern China. Domestically, it’s led to the ultimate collapse of the centuries-old Qing Dynasty, and with it more than two millennia of dynastic rule. It convinced China that it had to modernize and industrialize.

Today, the First Opium War is taught in Chinese schools as being the beginning of the “Century of Humiliation” — the end of that “century” coming in 1949 with the reunification of China under Mao. While Americans are routinely assured they are exceptional and the greatest country on Earth by their politicians, Chinese schools teach students that their country was humiliated by greedy and technologically superior Western imperialists.

The Opium Wars made it clear China had fallen gravely behind the West — not just militarily, but economically and politically. Every Chinese government since — even the ill-fated Qing Dynasty, which began the “Self-Strengthening Movement” after the Second Opium War — has made modernization an explicit goal, citing the need to catch up with the West.


The Japanese, observing events in China, instituted the same discourse and modernized more rapidly than China did during the Meiji Restoration.

Mainland Chinese citizens still frequently measure China in comparison to Western countries. Economic and quality of life issues are by far their main concern. But state media also holds military parity as a goal.



My contention is that the PRC, in facilitating the supply of Fentanyl by multiple routes and thus greatly exacerbating an existing epidemic of opioid addiction in America, is undertaking the same process in reverse, wreaking vengeance upon the West (in particular, upon the primary inheritor of British imperialism) for the Century of Humiliation.

On the Chinese (and Indian) scale of history these are very recent events, very fresh wounds to the psyche. They are as defining of the Chinese worldview as the Nazi holocaust is of the Jewish/Israeli worldview, or the experience of Islamic and British colonialism to the Indian worldview. I strongly believe that a deeper understanding of how the "New China" sees its place in the world can only be arrived at by considering its peoples' and institutions' perception of major historical trauma at the hands of its present-day opponents.

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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby ramana » 28 Oct 2017 04:55

RD thanks for recapping the sorry saga of the Opium wars.
It gave the Indian indentured class in the world.
Amitava Ghosh 'Sea of Poppies'.

It gave the term gunboat diplomacy which the West used against third world countries.
A special ship suited for river based shore bombardment was made.

See the British demand to send Chinese indentured labor to US to build the railways!!!

And the British piously claim how they ended slavery due to pious appeals by William Wilberforce.
They had indentured labor to replace the slaves.

In those days British owned many lands in Mid West and cattle ranches. The great winter storms of 1890s wiped those out and WWII clean up by Morgenthau finally freed the Americans.

Also note Xi Jinping reluctance to have anymore free ports like Hong Kong as it smacks of back to century of humiliation.
Also tells why HK integration is very serious matter for the PRC.

Another comment is the US piously came up with Open Door policy which means no Western colonial power has sole access to China.
And using the Christianity clause sent many missionaries to China the most prominent being Mary Knoll ministries.

Thee later were parked in HK and became the famous China watchers brigade.
Some Hollywood movies of the Communist takeover show these brave hearts suffering for the heathen.

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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby ramana » 28 Oct 2017 07:18


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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby SSridhar » 28 Oct 2017 10:14

ramana, as far as I can see, he has not said anything new that we haven't discussed here or in the 'neutering' thread.

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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby KLNMurthy » 28 Oct 2017 14:11

BRF is a seriously impressive resource for anyone wanting to understand China. Hats off to the gurus here.

I would like to propose a direction of discussion to add to those that are already here. It is as follows:

We know beyond doubt that China wants to dominate the world, starting with Asia.

As Indians we have some experience with wannabe world dominators, first the Turko-Mongol Muslims and next the English.

We know, more or less, something about the mechanics of this domination, specifically the fact that it is more of a two-way integration process than if would appear at first blush. The British adapted and adopted Indian ways and aspects of culture, not least being cuisine and yoga, but a lot more. India made them more global and less insular. While we, of course, developed an enduring connection with theif language, literature, and sports.

When it comes to the Muslims, I don't need to add to the endless prating about syncretic culture, except to note that, yes, it is a fact, though it is stupid to romanticize it likd some of our fellow Indians like to do.

I would like to put aside my own personal resentment and distaste for the Muslim and British intrusions into India and try to consider objectively the question of what world dominance by one particular nation might look like at the micro- and macro- levels.

If the Chinese do achieve world domination, will it look like another version of British or Muslim empires? Will the Chinese change significantly from deep and prolonged exposure to Indians, Africans, Lankans etc.? Will the elites among latter, in their turn, become fond of Chinese language, culture, music, sport etc.? Will there be any kind or degree of integration of hearts and minds between Chinese overlords and their SDRE subjects?

I think we need to understand the human, cultural and psychological capacity of China and the Chinese to build and sustain their world empire, going beyond military and economic muscle. BRF has members who have a lot of knowledge and insights in this aspect, somd have lived there, and may even speak the language.

I will offer one thought as my contribution. If the Chinese are motivated more by anger and resentment for the Century of Humiliation, and less by the spirit of adventure and exploration, I think their mission is not going to go well, either for Chinese of for their targets. Racial/national/communal resentment and rage only gets you so far, before you get severe pushback. Examples are modern day Islamists, Germans and Japanese of WW 2.

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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby chola » 28 Oct 2017 14:33

We know beyond doubt that China wants to dominate the world, starting with Asia.

As Indians we have some experience with wannabe world dominators, first the Turko-Mongol Muslims and next the English.


Hain, we have no experience with this kind of world domination attempt (if indeed that is what it is in yhe traditional sense.)

The Britshits and Turko-Mongols were first rate fighting peeples. Cheen are not. And unlike Muslims (and even Brits) of today, Cheen are rational enough to know they cannot fight and had assiduously avoided war even as thet had built up a modern military. It had not been in a major shooting war in five decades and, judging by the way Doklam ended with a complete whimper in spite of all the fiery rhetoric, they will not fight unless someone brings the fight TO THEM.

They will use their unmatched mass production of equipment and infrastructure to create fait accompli on the ground without going to war. This is gray zone aggression during peacetime. This is mercantile strategy that makes use of production and asset gains. As far from the Brits and Turko-Mongols as I can see. Those engaged in outright honest warfare.

Right now, we have no idea how to deal with this because Doklam had shown me that we are not willing to go warrior on chini shopkeeper arse. War is the best way to deal with a mercantile nonwarrior power that depends on trade and encrouches during peace.

Racial/national/communal resentment and rage only gets you so far, before you get severe pushback.


There had been “pushback” against Cheen for decades now. From Amreeka, from Japan, from Taiwan, from Australa, from Vietnam. And from India.

But each one of those “pushing back” trades massively and extensively with Cheen and increases Cheen’s power year after year, decade after decade. Because Cheen never goes to war, relationships are never disrupted.

You think there will be more “pushback” than the past when there will be more investment in those countries, more chini tourists visiting those countries and more wealth in the Cheen market to buy their stuff?

Most of SE Asia, Korea, Japan and now Europe have chinis as their top tourist arrivals and are actively courting them. Their film market is number two now and will be number one in a few years. And unlike the US box office, the chini one is open to foreign films. Dangal made more money in Cheen alone than the next dozen B’Wood flicks made in India.

No, the pushback will be the same as it ever was and Cheen will grow as it always did.

That is unless someone can force Cheen to do something a mercantile great power doesn’t want to do. And that would be to force it into a real war like the ones the Brits and Turko-Mongols favored.

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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby ricky_v » 28 Oct 2017 16:41

KLNMurthy wrote: if the Chinese do achieve world domination, will it look like another version of British or Muslim empires? Will the Chinese change significantly from deep and prolonged exposure to Indians, Africans, Lankans etc.? Will the elites among latter, in their turn, become fond of Chinese language, culture, music, sport etc.? Will there be any kind or degree of integration of hearts and minds between Chinese overlords and their SDRE subjects?

I think we need to understand the human, cultural and psychological capacity of China and the Chinese to build and sustain their world empire, going beyond military and economic muscle. BRF has members who have a lot of knowledge and insights in this aspect, somd have lived there, and may even speak the language.

[massive ot understatement] Sir, if we look at the dominant powers of the past like the Anglos, the Persian-Arab-Turkic complex, their cultures were sufficiently "higher" than the conquered and it was adopted by these with much haste and are now regurgitated proudly as their own. But the world has reached a stasis in picking sides imo and the Chinese will find it difficult to find purchase in the overpopulated mind-complex. What do the modern day Chinese offer culturally anyway?; there are people of European, latin, Polynesian,asian descent who learn to read English just to tap in the ever burgeoning and already vast score of literature and entertainment complex. Which other language can boast of that?
The only notable contribution in this context from the east comes in the form of anime and k-pop, and these have an enormous mind space amongst people of varied hues. The animes mostly have the theme of penance and loss; which are highly Japanese traits rather than that of the Chinese. In fact their own industry is swamped with animes and Korean shows which they cannot replicate, no matter how they claim that they are offshoot of the same branch. Pick any Chinese movie and what will you find the end goal to be? to be a mule or the supreme wielder of the lathi, which I suppose is a beautiful ambition to move towards, but where is the enrichment process for the viewer? Keeping aside the semantics of where the thoughts originate from, the majority of western media has ideas analogous with our own, replacing them would feel rather alien.
As an aside, while comparing our own media industry with others, the amount of mediocrity and cluelessness far exceeds that of any other. But, recently there was some news about African players going crazy over our some run-of-the-mill soap; what propelled these people to do so is something i'll never understand, but I think that the old roman technique of assimilating the "wild ones" by subtly forcing them to take pride in roman customs and culture is the template for it.
Summing up, we can all pick movies(the most common media) to depict the culture of any society, for us I would pick movies by hrishikesh Mukherjee and show it to some foreigner and they could easily identify "Indianness" and relate to the family values, middle class life, society. The Chinese movies are invariably about loss of face, being a mule, becoming strong, kicking a*s, the end. I don't think their is a market aspiring for that anymore.

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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby Philip » 28 Oct 2017 17:10

The most telling insight into XI's mind was his speech to the top mil. leadership telling them to concentrate and improve their training,tactics,modernisation ,etc. with total loyalty to the party in order to "WIN WARS".

XI Gins therefore expects trouble on his OBOR road,from countries opposed to China's hegemonistic "destiny" like India ,etc. and his speech to the party faithful at the "Great Hall of the People"was remarkably like a meeting of Adolf Hitler in a Munich beer hall to his party faithful. XI and China are going to be the 21st century equivs. of Hitler and Nazi Germany.

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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby KLNMurthy » 28 Oct 2017 20:15

I hope this strand of discussion is not too OT . After all, if Xi announced he wants China to conquer the world, we can try to imagine what "success " in that goal would look like, and debate the feasibility of that goal on that basis.

@ricky_v

Interesting cultural comparison. If I can restate your words, what you are saying is that, for much of the non-eastasian world, Chinese culture is not a good "aesthetic fit" in the way "muslim" imperial culture or British imperial culture was (roughly speaking, they can both bd considered versions of Roman imperial culture.)

On the other hand, there is the Mongol model. Chola has a point that unlike Mongols who were warriors, Han are mercantilists. Nevertheless, there seems to be one aspect that is similar.

Mongols conquered China and Arabo-Persian Muslim kingdoms, and while doing so, consciously adopted Chinese and Arabo-Persian Muslim culture more or less wholesale, and deliberately. I see Chinese today, in the process of "conquering" the West, adopting Western music, ballet etc. in a wholesale way. They have their own style of music, dance, opera etc (which are very much alive for internal consumption afaik) but at least in their conquering selves, they have abandoned them.

I see good and bad aspects to the cultural / aesthetic alienness of China, from the pov of a wannabe chinese imperialist. On the one hand, the cultural distance means that there are fewer cultural pressure and conflict points (though paki reaction to pork eating chinese in their midst bears watching).

On the other hand, there may not be quite the equivalents of deeply loyal native anglophiles and islamophiles to stand by their side, to mediate the relationships with the subject people in a reliable and effective way.
Last edited by KLNMurthy on 28 Oct 2017 20:51, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby KLNMurthy » 28 Oct 2017 20:29

Philip wrote:The most telling insight into XI's mind was his speech to the top mil. leadership telling them to concentrate and improve their training,tactics,modernisation ,etc. with total loyalty to the party in order to "WIN WARS".

XI Gins therefore expects trouble on his OBOR road,from countries opposed to China's hegemonistic "destiny" like India ,etc. and his speech to the party faithful at the "Great Hall of the People"was remarkably like a meeting of Adolf Hitler in a Munich beer hall to his party faithful. XI and China are going to be the 21st century equivs. of Hitler and Nazi Germany.

Contrary to chola, I agree we can't dismiss the massive chinese military buildup as "for show only" by a people who are afraid to fight. Humans are warlike at a basic level, and it isn't hard to imagine Chinese waging war and relishing it, especially when they have massively superior resources.

But Xi's China is different from Hitler's Germany in an important way. Weimar Germany owed money to the world, which was squeezing and impoverishing Germans. Germany felt they had no control over their fate, unless they got it bh fighting the world. (They were right in the long run--germany is rich and prosperous today, partly because of having waged WW2).

Xi's China is the world's factory as well as, increasingly, its moneylender, and this fact is enriching the Chinese. It is the Chinese who have increasing control over the world's economg and finance. They can decide how much to squeeze without causing outright rebellion by the squeezees. The military is there in case they either miscalculate or don't havd enough economic and financial leverage.

Suppose India and China come to blows over OBOR, and the China-Pakistan axis goes to war to teach the SDREs a lesson. Will SDREs learn the lesson and fall in line? Will the other "beneficiaries" of OBOR like Iran, Vietnam, SL, Nigeria, South Africa et al get alarmed by a warlike China and worry it could be their turn next? Or will they side with china-pakistan because India has to be punished for trying to spoil their chance at prosperity?

These are open questions. Another open question that follows is, what can India and Indians do today onwards to ensure that the answers to the above questions are no, yes and no respectively?

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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby Suraj » 28 Oct 2017 22:05

OBOR is an interesting mention. It's not a Chinese effort. It's an Eleven effort. For the first time, a paramount leader's doctrine involves building some infrastructure, as opposed to some silly sounding document on paper, eg Jiang Zemin's "Three Represents" ? What does that even mean ? Couldn't they get better than a half-baked translator in Zhongnanhai? OBOR / CPEC is facing opposition inside TSP itself.

OBOR is a reflection that China is boxed in from the east, so they go west. They'd like to go south (to India) too, but they're offended that we basically gave them the finger on that.

Various leaders have set long term development and income goals, eg Mahathir Mohammed for Malaysia. China's clarly done the fastest job of getting from low to middle income, but staying out of the middle income trap is whole other story. Theres a good reason why there's only a small number of high income countries, and only one has >200m people.

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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby chola » 29 Oct 2017 08:55

KLNMurthy wrote:Contrary to chola, I agree we can't dismiss the massive chinese military buildup as "for show only" by a people who are afraid to fight.


Those are your words not mine. I said their military is there for creating fait accompli during peacetime. It is done through overwhelming numbers of warships and aircraft creating persistent presence and de facto jurisdiction. So it is definitely not for show.

What I said is they can’t fight. And they do not fight and have not fought for decades.

But their military is used and it is getting them a return in gray zone territory. So waiting for them to attack will mean we wait and wait until the whole is full of their infrastructure and equipment (including warships and aircraft.)

Countering them with lessons learned from the Brits or Turco-Mongols will not help us with a mercantile nation who won’t go to war because the underpinning of its power is trade and that depends on peace.

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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby Philip » 29 Oct 2017 09:50

SS spot on.XI has just launched a tirade against Taiwan not wanting other nations not to receive him!

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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby ramana » 29 Oct 2017 11:30


chola
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby chola » 29 Oct 2017 17:44

I looked across the Xi related headlines in the past week and while digging through all the subjective opinion pieces and political mumble jumble chaff for concrete things to predict what’s coming, I’ve come to realize this:

Cheen has a fvcking dictator with complete power fully dedicated to science, technology AND the private sector!

Life under Xi will be acceleration of a monstrous combination of authoritarian control that can steamroll over red tape and human lives combined with an already insane dog-eat-dog private sector producing bloody efficiency and forced innovation through inhumanely competitive culling.

I was told by a veteran technology analyst (one of the more respected on Wall Street IMHO) at lunch this week that inevitably Cheen will gain the edge in science because there is no proper sense of ethics. Western researchers will balk at gene cutting that can lead to eugenics or AI and big data that leads to the complete destruction of privacy. There are no such concerns in Cheen.***

http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/19th-party-congress-xi-jinping-calls-for-turning-china-into-nation-of-innovators

http://m.scmp.com/news/china/policies-politics/article/2117420/li-qiang-keen-supporter-private-sector-and-xi

http://m.scmp.com/news/china/policies-politics/article/2117319/chinas-technocrats-blast-two-more-space-engineers-new

http://www.sixthtone.com/news/1001057/tsinghua-named-worlds-best-engineering%2C-computer-science-school

http://www.menafn.com/1095980171/US-News--World-Report-Announces-2018-Best-Global-Universities-Rankings

Behind the U.S., the following countries have the most ranked institutions out of the 1,250 schools on the overall list:
China: 136
Japan: 76
U.K.: 73
Germany: 58


The fact that Xi is supporting a technology-driven PRC that already has the number one engineering university n the world and houses the second most ranked universities has to be our greatest challenge bar none.

Unless we have a Modi in place for the duration of Eleven’s reign we could be left in the backwaters permanently.

*** He said the stuff they are looking at in quantum mechanics combined with the lack of ethics could be frightening. They already have the two fastest supecomputers in the world by a very wide margin. So if they come across the ability to create an economically viable black hole or artificial sun both of which can annihilate our planet if an experiment loses control(!!!), the chinis would not hesitate to try it.

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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Postby Philip » 29 Oct 2017 21:33

Don Quixote,Indy Jones and the "last crusade"...XI Gins' Freudian slip were the words "Chinese characteristics".There is no scope for the ROW.Like ISIS,Wahaabis,Nazi's,Pol Pot, "Chairman No.1" is to be the global fuhrer,emperor of not just the Chins but the world..A pity Chaplin is dead.We could've had a great remake of the " Great Dictator".

Matching the Chinese penal labour work force ,driven by fear,is impossible for democratic and lial India to match.Nevertheless we must prioritise on all goals and stay focussed in every way to counter China.
The war has already begun with the "words of Chairman XI.


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