Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

Asia Society Policy Insitute guesses on leadership changes:

https://asiasociety.org/policy-institut ... y-congress

Scenario 1: Xi’s protégé takes the Premiership – In this scenario, Xi’s protégé Li Qiang (current Shanghai Party Secretary and Politburo member) or a similarly loyal dark horse ally wins the day. Li seems to be Xi’s first preference for Premier (leader of the State Council). However, Li’s competitiveness has been undermined by Shanghai’s serious and embarrassing difficulties in containing outbreaks of COVID-19 earlier this year. Should Li nonetheless take the position, it would therefore indicate that Xi remains in a very powerful political position. This could however increase the likelihood that Li Keqiang stays within the PBSC in the position of NPC Chairman, while Politburo member Hu Chunhua (who is part of Li’s CYL faction) might replace Han Zheng as Executive Vice Premier (#2 at the State Council), as something of a factional compromise. However, the CYL faction might not be powerful enough to maintain both Li and Hu in critical PBSC positions. Either way, one or two current PBSC members among Wang Yang, Wang Huning, and Zhao Leji would likely remain (possibly shuffling positions). There is also a fair chance, however, that an additional one or more of them might also retire and a Xi-loyalist like Ding Xuexiang, Huang Kunming, Li Xi, or Chen Min’er be handed Zhao Leji’s current position as head of the CCP’s feared internal anti-corruption force, the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI).


Scenario 2: Wang Yang becomes Premier – In this compromise scenario Wang Yang (also connected to the CYL faction, if more loosely) becomes Premier. This would almost certainly squeeze Li Keqiang out of the PBSC and into retirement entirely. Younger CYL contender Hu Chunhua would also be kept out of the PBSC (as Xi would hardly allow two CYL members to dominate the State Council, unless he is far weaker than conventionally expected). In this scenario Li Qiang would likely take Han Zheng’s position as Executive Vice Premier, while one of Xi’s other protégés such as Ding Xuexiang, Chen Min’er, Li Xi, or Cai Qi would take over from Zhao Leji as head of CCDI. Zhao Leji and Wang Huning would each become head of one of China’s legislative bodies (the NPC and CPPCC), while another close Xi ally (probably Huang Kunming) would take over ideology tsar Wang Huning’s position as head of the Central Secretariat.


Scenario 3: Han Zheng becomes Premier – In this less likely scenario, in which the age limit norm is abandoned, and Xi’s influence is revealed to be significantly more circumscribed, Han Zheng would remain on the PBSC and take the position of Premier, while Li Keqiang would also remain but become Chair of the NPC. Wang Yang would then likely also remain as Chair of the CPPCC, meaning two CYL faction members would make it onto the PBSC alongside Jiang Zemin’s man Han Zheng. Wang Huning would likely retire, and Zhao Leji would take his position. In this case, Xi’s protégé Li Qiang might still then become Executive Vice Premier, while other protégés like Chen Min’er, Ding Xuexiang, Li Xi, Cai Qi, or Huang Kunming would battle for the seat of CCDI head.


Scenario 4: Xi unbound – In this scenario, Xi’s influence proves to be unconstrained and he takes full advantage to set up his ideal PBSC. Li Keqiang, Han Zheng, Wang Yang, Wang Huning, and Li Zhanshu are all replaced by younger, absolutely loyal Xi allies. Ding Xuexiang, Li Qiang, Chen Min’er, Huang Kunming, and Li Xi are all potential candidates here. Xi may also demonstrate some magnanimity under this scenario by promoting someone from another interest group, such as Hu Chunhua, to the PBSC. This scenario appears to remain relatively unlikely, but it is hardly impossible.


Scenario 5: Packing the PBSC – In this wildcard scenario, the PBSC is enlarged from seven to nine seats. This seems most likely to occur if Xi is out-maneuvered and a non-Xi factionalist is set to become Premier, in which case Xi might push to expand the PBSC to compensate by creating new room for more factional appointments. Alternatively, Xi could receive intense pressure (including from his own allies) to set up a next generation of leadership by appointing a greater number of younger leaders to PBSC positions. In this case, Xi might choose to expand the PBSC rather than attempt to oust additional older members, making a strategic move to reward and temporarily satisfy his political base.

Scenarios 4 and 5 are unlikely.
They are saying that #3 is less likely.
So most likely it will be a combination of #1& #2.
Xi is not so powerful to implement #1 and his opponents are not so powerful to implement #2.

It is not a compromise but the best option to preserve the CPC.

Let us see.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by SSridhar »

From the above,
In this compromise scenario Wang Yang (also connected to the CYL faction, if more loosely) becomes Premier. This would almost certainly squeeze Li Keqiang out of the PBSC and into retirement entirely.
Li Keqiang is already retiring completely from politics.

IMHO, the strict Shanghai (in fact, all over China to the point of even not allowing people on the street when earthquake struck Chengdu) lockdown is not going to determine the fate of Xi's choice for Premiership. XJP has announced no compromise on the zero-COVID policy and this has been mutely accepted by the Congress.

Li Keqiang, in spite of having been XJP's competitor and from the CYL, was very docile for 10 years even as XJP took away most of his power by forming dozens of Leading Small Groups to micro-manage issues with himself being at the top of most of them. CYL has been significantly defanged, IMO.

Added later: It is like us receiving signals from far away stars with time delay. Beidaihe meeting a few months back would have already decided the policy & personalities. The rubber-stamp 20th Congress would just endorse all that.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by ricky_v »

ramana wrote:
Has the new leadership been announced?[/quote]
Not yet, slated for this weekend, ideally he would also announce his successor, I would say Wang Huning
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

Looks likely.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by SSridhar »

ricky_v wrote: ideally he would also announce his successor, I would say Wang Huning
In a few hours' time, we may know the answer. XJP probably would not announce a successor this time too.
But, if he does, it would be surprising if Wang Huning becomes the successor. For one, he is already 67 about to reach the 68-years limit. Secondly, he had had no administrative experience having held Professorship in Fudan University and later leading the behind-the-scene CCP Policy Research Office. The trend is to appoint a techno-politician from one of the coastal biggies or from Chongqing.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by ricky_v »

SSridhar wrote: In a few hours' time, we may know the answer. XJP probably would not announce a successor this time too.
But, if he does, it would be surprising if Wang Huning becomes the successor. For one, he is already 67 about to reach the 68-years limit. Secondly, he had had no administrative experience having held Professorship in Fudan University and later leading the behind-the-scene CCP Policy Research Office. The trend is to appoint a techno-politician from one of the coastal biggies or from Chongqing.
What you say is true SSridhar ji, I based my assumption on the "hawa" surrounding Wang Huning, which is not existent for anyone else except Chen Min'er and to some extent, the Shanghai boss Li Qiang, in addition, he is the head of the secretariat currently (after XJP obviously), a position both XJP and HJ held before final ascension.

I do not know about Hu Jintao's time, but XJP's ascension was telegraphed many years in advance, may have been to ensure political stability which XJP might not want (to dilute power), and hence the delay; if only Sun Zhengcai was still around... or Bo Xilai.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by SSridhar »

From ToI,
However in an unexpected move at such a heavily choreographed event, former leader Hu Jintao was led out of the closing ceremony. No official explanation was given.
Whoa !
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by SSridhar »

ricky_v wrote:
SSridhar wrote: In a few hours' time, we may know the answer. XJP probably would not announce a successor this time too.
But, if he does, it would be surprising if Wang Huning becomes the successor. For one, he is already 67 about to reach the 68-years limit. Secondly, he had had no administrative experience having held Professorship in Fudan University and later leading the behind-the-scene CCP Policy Research Office. The trend is to appoint a techno-politician from one of the coastal biggies or from Chongqing.
What you say is true SSridhar ji, I based my assumption on the "hawa" surrounding Wang Huning, which is not existent for anyone else except Chen Min'er and to some extent, the Shanghai boss Li Qiang, in addition, he is the head of the secretariat currently (after XJP obviously), a position both XJP and HJ held before final ascension.

I do not know about Hu Jintao's time, but XJP's ascension was telegraphed many years in advance, may have been to ensure political stability which XJP might not want (to dilute power), and hence the delay; if only Sun Zhengcai was still around... or Bo Xilai.
Yes ricky_v, you are right about Wang Huning being the Secretary of the CCP, but it is still a party appointment. He is eminently suitable for such a position especially when XJP has been trying to strengthen the party. Both XJP and Wang Huning are hard-core Marxist-Leninists and are in sync on establishing the supremacy of the CCP. But, XJP might feel that alone wouldn't suffice to lead China, especially in a do-or-die situation.

But, predictions are very tricky when one considers several factors: XJP's aversion to any potential 'threat' candidates, need to balance various factions, loyalty to XJP and his ideas etc.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ricky_v »

SSridhar wrote:From ToI,
However in an unexpected move at such a heavily choreographed event, former leader Hu Jintao was led out of the closing ceremony. No official explanation was given.
Whoa !
Video
http://www.barrons.com/video/former-chi ... AE584.html
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ricky_v »

Only Li Zhanshu is even talking to Hu Jinato based on the above video and looks embarrassed for him, at one point he even tries getting up, but is perhaps stopped by Wang Huning. XJP has his usual prince charming look plastered on his face, Wang Huning looks like he is enjoying the scene, Le Keqiang does not even acknowledge the scene to be occurring, a human with real blinkered vision
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by Pratyush »

With this action XJP has solidified a return of old style communist party power.

Paradoxically, with this change I no longer worry about the long term economic threat presented by the PRC.

The military threat is what we need to worry about. But without the underpinning of a strong economy, even that is not going to be a problem.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by SSridhar »

CPC congress: Li Keqiang, Wang Yang not in new leadership line-up in major reshuffle - Straits Times
Four of the current seven supreme leaders ruling China, including Premier Li Keqiang and fourth-ranked Wang Yang, look set to retire.

Their names did not appear in a list of the newly elected 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC). The new cohort of leaders, numbering 205 full members and 171 alternate members, come from the top rungs of the party, military and government.

Both Mr Li, who is No. 2 to President Xi Jinping in the Politburo Standing Committee, the apex of power with seven top leaders, and Mr Wang, have yet to reach retirement age. Both are 67.

Third-ranked Li Zhanshu, 72, and seventh-ranked Han Zheng, 69, are also out of the new Central Committee. They had been expected to retire.

Mr Wang was hotly tipped to take over Mr Li as the next premier.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by SSridhar »

The above points towards Li Qiang assuming Premiership.

He is a Xi confidante and from Shanghai. He is 63 years and will retire at the next Congress. With just one term, he will not pose any challenge to Xi.

If this happens, it means that the CPC calmly accepts terrible lockdowns as essential steps in the welfare of the people, the nation and above all the Party.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ricky_v »

SSridhar wrote:The above points towards Li Qiang assuming Premiership.

He is a Xi confidante and from Shanghai. He is 63 years and will retire at the next Congress. With just one term, he will not pose any challenge to Xi.

If this happens, it means that the CPC calmly accepts terrible lockdowns as essential steps in the welfare of the people, the nation and above all the Party.
The convention to become a premier requires a person to be a vice-premier first, ideally with a background in running the economy in some capacity. China had only 4 vice-premiers before the convention:
1) Han Zheng - the first vice premier, not named on the newer list, was expected to be retired due to age convention
2) Sun Chunlan - aged 72, in charge education, culture, sports, unlikely
3) Hu Chunhua - "little Hu", aged 59, mentor, "big Hu", Hu Jintao, CYP, in charge of commerce, tourism
4) Liu He - aged 70, in charge of industry, banking, age limited
Convention calls for only Hu Chunhua to take the premier role

Wang Yang who served as a vice-premier and could potentially have been the new premier was retired
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by rajpa »

The Mob Boss from 20th episode of General Hostility (c) Chris Chappell
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by eklavya »

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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by Lisa »

^Nobody is even willing to turn around and look at him let alone recognise him! Anyway, let's wait for the CPI/CPI(M) to explain what happen at their convention.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by SSridhar »

Lisa wrote:^Nobody is even willing to turn around and look at him let alone recognise him!
Exactly, not even Li Keqiang who is the Hu man in the State Council. Eventually, Hu cut a sorry figure.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by Lisa »

Ji,

Li Keqiang apparently already gone

Retirement awaits China’s Li Keqiang and Wang Yang as Xi Jinping looks to next generation in unprecedented third term

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politic ... third-term

https://www.thehindu.com/news/internati ... 043538.ece
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by eklavya »

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-63355950

He is being manhandled off the stage in full public / media view. And it is a high profile figure, no less than the former leader, being humiliated in this way. A message is being sent to anyone even thinking about dissent: don’t do it. One man rule.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

So it's Scenario 4 Xi unbound.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by rsingh »

Last time I saw something like this was Saddam Hussain calling the name and people were taken out one by one. This is very serious development.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by hnair »

Phew… Breathtaking. For a few days, there was an anxiety in me that Xi will be replaced by a wily visionary like Deng who puts China’s interests before his own. Fortunately Xitler did not disappoint.

If Kaptaan can come back to power via his Long March against the smooth-khakis and with the blessings of the scruffy-khakis…. We need more of OBOR, piety and fuel subsidies in our neighborhood to keep the two fronts busy. Busy on the other side.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

Xi Jinping consolidates power in 20th Congress. Former President Hu Jintao removed forcibly from the podium after calling press. Clear purge.
Next 48 hours will be crucial as Chinabturns inwards.
The investment advisor was right.
Globalism is dead.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by Atmavik »

rsingh wrote:Last time I saw something like this was Saddam Hussain calling the name and people were taken out one by one. This is very serious development.

That video of sassan calling out names sends a chill down my spine.

Can u imagine a former President being manhandled like that ?
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by Anujan »

The official explanation is that Hu had a "health emergency"

Probably from the beatings in a gulag that he is going to endure after booted out.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by gakakkad »

if Hu is beaten he ll probably pass away.

11 is a psychopath w/o parallel in current era. He may not hesitate using Nukes w/o provocation.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by gakakkad »

hnair wrote:Phew… Breathtaking. For a few days, there was an anxiety in me that Xi will be replaced by a wily visionary like Deng who puts China’s interests before his own. Fortunately Xitler did not disappoint.

If Kaptaan can come back to power via his Long March against the smooth-khakis and with the blessings of the scruffy-khakis…. We need more of OBOR, piety and fuel subsidies in our neighborhood to keep the two fronts busy. Busy on the other side.
peter ziehan? he is right about prc but not about roos.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by g.sarkar »

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/22/ch ... -congress/
What the Hell Just Happened to Hu Jintao?
Xi Jinping’s predecessor was forcibly led away from the Party Congress.
James Palmer, OCTOBER 22, 2022

China’s 20th Party Congress concluded on Saturday with a rare and shocking piece of live drama. Hu Jintao, the leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) from 2002 to 2012, was publicly escorted away from the Party Congress by staff, visibly confused and upset, just before the final votes of the session. Hu was seated in a prominent position next to current CCP leader Xi Jinping, and the incident was caught on camera; he appeared to ask Xi and Premier Li Keqiang a question, to which they both nodded, while Xi prevented him from taking some papers by placing his hand on them. Li Zhanshu, another prominent party leader, got up to aid Hu as he left but was tugged back down with a pull on his jacket by political theorist Wang Huning, seated next to him.
Hu was never as powerful as Xi is now; his time in power was still in the era of so-called collective leadership, and he had to contend with the formidable influence of his predecessor Jiang Zemin. During Hu’s tenure, corruption rose—and more dangerously for the party, public coverage of corruption rose, as did freedom of speech online and, to a limited extent, civil society groups and NGOs. That wasn’t out of any great commitment to liberalism on Hu’s part but because most party members were more occupied with making money than with enforcing the party line.
Since stepping down as CCP leader in 2012, when Hu was lauded by party media for—in a stark contrast to Xi—relinquishing power, he has been largely off the stage. Many of his former allies have been arrested in Xi’s purges, most notably his chief aide Ling Jihua in 2015. Hu was associated with a power network of former leaders, like himself, of the Communist Youth League; that faction appears to have been effectively destroyed.
So what just happened? Hu’s name appears on a list of general assembly members given by China’s state news agency Xinhua on Saturday, but no explanation has been given for the incident—and, unsurprisingly, any attempt to discuss it online is being heavily censored. Bear in mind that the Party Congress is an extremely tightly choreographed event where the actual politics happen weeks or months in advance. That means Hu’s unannounced and clumsy removal was either a cock-up—or a conspiracy.
The first possibility is that it was a health crisis. Hu has been visibly frail during the Party Congress. His hair has also gone fully gray—which in a past era would itself have been a sign that he was eschewing power entirely, since China’s leaders universally dyed their hair, but under Xi signs of gray have been allowed to creep in. But it’s hard to see what condition could cause both an urgent need to remove him with cameras rolling and his deep reluctance to go. And even in a party context where secrecy and caution are the norms, why would others not aid a frail former colleague?
One possibility is that there was an unexpected COVID-19 diagnosis of which he was unaware. But that would mean a PCR test was processed just at the wrong moment—coming up positive when the rapid tests administered to everyone who comes near the leadership failed to catch anything.
The second possibility is that information suddenly came up that made Xi—who would have had to personally approve any such move—afraid that Hu might abstain or even vote against him in the rounds of otherwise unanimous voting that finished off the Party Congress. That could have been a remark by Hu to his former colleagues backstage or perhaps even signs of dementia that caused a sudden panic that something might go wrong. That would make Hu’s confusion understandable.
But the third and most disturbing possibility is that it was planned, and we just witnessed Xi deliberately and publicly humiliate his predecessor—possibly as a precursor to wielding the tools of party discipline, followed by judicial punishment, against him. This would be an extraordinary move but one that rammed home the message of Xi’s absolute power—something reinforced by the rest of the Party Congress, which just solidified Xi as the “core” of the party in the (often modified and mostly symbolic) Chinese Constitution and where he has been front and center as he takes an unprecedented third term.
......
Gautam
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by g.sarkar »

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/15/xi ... ding062921
Who Are Xi’s Enemies?
As he consolidates power, China’s leader faces a wide but hapless opposition.
Deng Yuwen, OCTOBER 15, 2022

Telling friend from foe is the first order of business for any revolution, or so Mao Zedong once said. As Chinese leader Xi Jinping prepares for his third term, he faces a similarly tough question. Although his tenure as head of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will soon be unanimously extended by nearly 2,300 delegates—most of them members of China’s elite—at the 20th Party Congress that begins on Oct. 16, the power base grounding his rule may actually be much smaller.
The sheer number of elites whom Xi has crossed during his first decade in office would have forced his departure under any ordinary logic, yet Xi’s grip on power appears to be as secure as ever. Rumors of secret coups have proved false, time and again. The secret of Xi’s success lies in those roughly 2,300 party delegates: While the delegates are chosen before the Party Congress, final approval of the names is controlled by Xi, who can easily and legally ensure that they will all be his supporters. Even if they dislike Xi, they will pretend loyalty in order to keep their position. Xi’s campaigns have smashed the iron triangle of officialdom, industry, and academia created by the 1980s economic and social reforms of the last leader to hold anything close to his level of power, Deng Xiaoping.
The first order of business for Deng’s policy of “reform and opening up” was to secure the support and cooperation of China’s officials, businesspeople, and intellectuals by ensuring they benefited from reform. The early stages of the reform period thus created something that might seem strange to Western eyes but entirely reasonable in the Chinese context: Corruption became the lubricant of reform. This was the dirty little secret of the Deng era—after all, decent people don’t talk about corruption, much less promote it openly.
But in China, the idea that corruption and reform complemented each other was a mainstream one among intellectuals, cemented by the realities of state policies. This created a robust alliance of elites, who all grew fat off the Deng Xiaoping-Jiang Zemin-Hu Jintao years between 1978 and 2012. Businesspeople paid bribes—but got returns on their investments as officials smoothed the path for enterprises and looked the other way on regulation, and the intellectuals participated by justifying the whole affair.
But an alliance grounded in corruption proved unsustainably corrosive. Slowing economic growth by the late 2000s left elites less able to capitalize on economic development, forcing a greater reliance on corruption for profit. The prevalence of corruption, meanwhile, drove transaction costs ever upward, ultimately preventing further reforms, suppressing economic growth, and setting in motion extremely harmful political consequences, as public complaints and protests about the level of graft grew. Xi inherited the vicious cycle that had begun in the later years of Hu’s tenure.
Rather than continuing to gamble with the CCP’s political power, Xi had no choice but to fight corruption, smash the elite alliance, and transform the party’s corrupt inheritance, culture, and structure—even though doing so would pit him against the entire elite class. To preserve his own political power, Xi set off on a road of no return.
The knives came out inside the party first. Xi understood that his chief political opposition was inside the elite alliance, of which he was a member and which had benefited most from the fat years.
There are plenty of dissidents and idealists in China, but they are a minority of Xi’s enemies. The majority of opposition comes from those whose interests have been infringed on to one degree or another, although there are also those who oppose him purely out of principle. Some are firm in their opposition; others, less so. Some disapprove of Xi’s ideas, and still others might agree with his ideals and stances but nevertheless think he has taken the country in the wrong direction.
Let’s start with those inside the system. Reformist officials are a silent opposition within the party and officialdom. These officials are between 40 and 75 years of age and include retirees, individuals nearing retirement, and officials currently in leadership positions. They generally came of political age during the “reform and opening up” period in the 1980s, for which some of them drafted policies or provided ideological, theoretical, or discursive support.
......
Gautam
Please read the entire article, it is too long to post here.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by S_Madhukar »

If Eleven has bullied his way ahead of Jiantao and Zemin factions then for sure he is ready for a lunge at Taiwan. Considering his platform is going back to Mao he will not be pragmatic or bought over. Next few years will be interesting :roll:
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by rsingh »

Any news about army movements? Any reshuffling of top army leaders. That is something we have watch for next few days.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

SSridhar and ricky_v

We should look at the past predictions by experts on China and see how correct they were wrt 20th Congress?

This way we know how to rate them in future.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

rsingh wrote:Any news about army movements? Any reshuffling of top army leaders. That is something we have watch for next few days.

It's part that. We heard about changes three weeks ago.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by SSridhar »

Anujan wrote:The official explanation is that Hu had a "health emergency"
But, it is obvious that there was no 'health emergency'.

He refused to get up, a person tried to bodily lift him. It was after some struggle that he was persuaded to get up??

His red file was thrust into his hand. Would they do it to a sick person? He was not wheeled out, he was walked out.

Those sitting around, including XJP, did not rush to his help. They looked totally unconcerned. No doctor rushed in. After all, Hu had been a two-term General Secretary, President & head of CMC.

Whatever it was, it was certainly not 'sickness' that led to Hu's exit.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by hnair »

Hu Jintao’s “medical emergency” excuse is being propped up mainly by a small bunch of surprisingly loud western analysts and journalists. The Chinese govt seems to be not bothered with giving any details and is treating it as a routine change of guard. Which pretty much tells us these western folks are paid PR, who are doing their job of damage control of China’s image in the west with the current climate of “rules based order” etc

Probably as a hedge on behalf of western corporate interests who might recall the disruptions caused by rollback and sanctions after public pressure in the aftermath of Tiannenmen and Zhao Ziyang’s ouster/jailing.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

SS, More important for us is what does this mean for India? The rest is all hogwash.
Hu Jintao is part of the Guangdong faction and his removal in such terms means they are in disfavor.
This is a tectonic moment.
It marks the end of Deng Xiaopeng's globalization, a "factory to the world" chant that China experts were yakking about.
We could see a China turning inwards and only exporting its surpluses and the West can stuff the trade sanctions.

The last ten years since 2012 saw China double its GDP which is 7.2% growth year on year. And its creditable with two years lost to the pandemic and four years of Trump sanctions.
China has moved to a moderate-income country that can consume most of the common products it produces.
And China lifted 100 Million out of poverty.

And its focus will be Taiwan re-unification which is an ideological challenge to PRC. I wrote this in 2000 BRM.

"The challenge of Taiwan to the Chinese political system

Taiwan’s democratic transformation throws up a major ideological challenge to the mainland’s political system. Many mainlanders would question the authoritarian nature of their state if the Taiwan experiment succeeds. The mainland is tackling the challenge in two ways- by treating Taiwan as a renegade province it questions the legitimacy of that political system which could undermine it- this is accompanied by keeping up the military pressure and numerous threats. The second way is that of proposing ‘one country two systems’ type of government. Both these paths appear to be aimed at buying time while it grows stronger. As can be seen the fight is internal and will get resolved with the march of time. However it is in the interest of the world community that Taiwan exists as an example of contrast to the people of China."

What does this mean for India? Well, it puts them in a confrontation with the US which has to face it. They have a treaty with Taiwan to defend it.
Biden has flubbed things by sending dimwit Pelosi for domestic elections!
And this gives a chance for reducing pressure on LAC etc.


For ref US sent an SSBN in the Arabian Sea. and folks think that's a message to Russia, China, and Iran. This will cause both of them to put more SSNs there and Iran will revisit its options.
That jeopardizes Indian security. Russian subs were there as part of the Cold War and are now confined to the Arctic.

So it means more Chinese SSNs.

The US just sowed the ill wind and stir the hornets' nest.
Will India go help them after security is jeopardized in the Arabian Sea?

What credibility do all those chatterati have who never for saw this scenario?
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

ramana wrote:SSridhar and ricky_v

We should look at the past predictions by experts on China and see how correct they were wrt the 20th Congress.

This way we know how to rate them in the future.

Please concentrate on this. Its a serious question.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ricky_v »

ramana wrote:
ramana wrote:SSridhar and ricky_v

We should look at the past predictions by experts on China and see how correct they were wrt the 20th Congress.

This way we know how to rate them in the future.
Please concentrate on this. Its a serious question.
With the final committee unveiling ceremony only a few hours away, things would become more clearer. After that, we can begin the analysis process and map with previous analyses.

A point to ponder, not for the 20th, but prior to that, the party itself has been a very dynamic beast, and the composition / make-up of the psc in particular has been subject to changes dependent on the demands of the party or nation, for example the strength of the 16th and 17th psc (2002, 2007) was 9, just before the 18th psc, the Bo Xilai scandal came into view, and this led to a subsequent decrease of 2 members who were from the Zhengfawei / the central political and legal affairs commission (chinese stasi.. one of many apparently) as this was the position he was supposed to lead following his mentor Zhou Yongkang (who retired in the 2012 psc, was tried and found guilty of corruption in 2014, and him a full, albeit ex-psc member).

They also move around their naming convention, chairman, secretary, and one would assume that the nature of the job changes accordingly.

For the 20th, Li Keiqang was a foregone conclusion, he stated very publicly that he had no wish to continue, Wang Yang's exit was not foreseen, I do not see an immediate reason for his forced retirement, and he would reasonably have been the next premier.
Hu Chunhua was slated for a top job in the previous congress, but was passed over, now he is the only vice-premier present and should be the next premier, with 59 years, he should be the next heir, though he is very close with Hu Jintao
So in a group of 7, numbers 2, 3, 7(left), 4 was made to leave, leaving us with no5 Wang Huning, and no6 Zhao Leji (the anti-corruption chief).
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

Good summary
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