Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

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chola
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by chola »

ramana wrote:Chetak That painting reflects China's fears of a repeat of the 19th-century of Humiliation via "Open Door Policy" etc under Qing dynasty.
Yes, they fear it and I think these are the most consequential results of this paranoia:

1) they are outwardly calling for increases in their nuclear arsenal
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202105/1224725.shtml

2) systematically decoupling with West through "dual track" economy with domestic market growth while still taking advantage of export markets,
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Asia- ... dependence

3) their building up of their silicon chip industry and the bifurcation of the global technology eco-system.
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/amphtml/china ... 08343.html

The first will mean we'll need to reformulate our calculus for deterence when the chini nuke arsenal grows into the thousands to match the US -- even if the US gets them into an arms treaty since the one they have with Russia caps things for everyone at 3000 warheads.

The last two would mean a drastically changed Cheen who grew most of the last four decades on easy access to Western markets and being the top beneficiary of the globalized personal electronics production chain. This is where India must compete with other nations -- Vietnam, Malaysia, even Bangladesh -- for a piece of the supply chains leaving China from this separation.

The decoupling through dual track and technology bifurcation thus represents a major opportunity for India to take over some of those links with the West. Hopefully, it can turn India into the China of the 1970s - 1990s and China into the Soviet Union of the same period.

If the chinis succeed in either or both, it would make them immensely powerful without any constraints placed by need for foreign markets or technology. They have enough allies in MNCs and especially their cohorts on the Far East -- Japan, Korea and even Taiwan -- feeding them critical tech that they have an even chance of success. They grew internally during the Wuhan virus when their trading partners went into lockdown and then took advantage of the surge in exports when the West began to open up again. The US embargos on satellites and space tech did not stop them from developing a massive satellite industry and market and a space station.

IMHO, there is a 50-50 chance that Cheen will be drastically weaker with less access to the West. But conversely, they can be drastically more powerful with its domestic market growing far faster and much bigger than the US and with enough help from the usual suspects along with good old fashioned stealing and spying to allow them to create a parallel technology eco-system.
chetak
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by chetak »

The original article seems to be pay walled


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chetak
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by chetak »

walk the talk, sun weidong, walk the talk first, before mouthing such patently self serving homilies.

China's Amb to India says: lets cooperate, not confront. This is merely another foolish and impractical platitude.

Who started the confrontation in Ladakh

Who killed our soldiers

Appeasing the hans gets us nowhere, except probably in the belly of the dragon.



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Lisa
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by Lisa »

I had an interaction with an official from China and he directed me to this document in reference to my question of Xi Jinping/CCP standing in China (it in essence says that there was virtually complete satisfaction with the government at all levels of governance). He was in fact suggesting that both Xi position and that of his government were completely secure and that the entire country was in complete agreement with ALL government policies.

"Even in 2003, the central government received a strong level of satisfaction, with 86.1% expressing approval and 8.9% disapproving. This high level of satisfaction increased even further by 2016, but such increases were minimal because public satisfaction was already high to begin with. By contrast, in 2003, township-level governments had quite negative satisfaction rates, with 44% expressing approval and 52% disapproving. By contrast, in 2003, township-level governments had quite negative satisfaction rates, with 44% expressing approval and 52% disapproving. However, by 2016, these numbers had flipped with 70% approving and only 26% disapproving."

If this has already been discussed, I apologise for posting it and if it is in the incorrect tread, please delete.

https://ash.harvard.edu/publications/un ... rough-time

https://ash.harvard.edu/files/ash/files ... 6.2020.pdf
AshishA
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by AshishA »

How will the upcoming 20th congress impact Xi and his policies towards India? Should we expect a China making aggressive measures against India to put the domestic Xi competitors in line?
chola
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by chola »

Lisa wrote:I had an interaction with an official from China and he directed me to this document in reference to my question of Xi Jinping/CCP standing in China (it in essence says that there was virtually complete satisfaction with the government at all levels of governance). He was in fact suggesting that both Xi position and that of his government were completely secure and that the entire country was in complete agreement with ALL government policies.

"Even in 2003, the central government received a strong level of satisfaction, with 86.1% expressing approval and 8.9% disapproving. This high level of satisfaction increased even further by 2016, but such increases were minimal because public satisfaction was already high to begin with. By contrast, in 2003, township-level governments had quite negative satisfaction rates, with 44% expressing approval and 52% disapproving. By contrast, in 2003, township-level governments had quite negative satisfaction rates, with 44% expressing approval and 52% disapproving. However, by 2016, these numbers had flipped with 70% approving and only 26% disapproving."

If this has already been discussed, I apologise for posting it and if it is in the incorrect tread, please delete.

https://ash.harvard.edu/publications/un ... rough-time

https://ash.harvard.edu/files/ash/files ... 6.2020.pdf
Xi has made himself their protector against a hostile West. Without him and the CCP, their Cheen would be partitioned and humiliated by the colonial powers like they were in 1800s. They hammer that point to their people over and over.

Without Xi and the CCP, Chinese will be poor again and China will be crushed. So of course being taught this a vast majority of Hans will support him.
chetak
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by chetak »

AshishA wrote:How will the upcoming 20th congress impact Xi and his policies towards India? Should we expect a China making aggressive measures against India to put the domestic Xi competitors in line?

Any number of congresses will not change the chinese ambitions regarding India. we are seen as a vassal state, meant and existing only to serve the cultured and slant eyed denizens of the great middle kingdom and perpetually remain in their servitude.

The upcoming 20th congress may cause some thoughts on course corrections or a revision in their plans depending on how circumstances have evolved due to their on going political and military strategies to subsume India into their support system. The naked military and strategic nature of their means to establish dominance is now shorn of all pretence of benign economic aid and their guise of developing global commerce to spread prosperity no longer washes.

I have this strong feeling that even though the cheeni plans are well thought out in the strategy and have long gestation cycles and so far ran per plan without major hiccups until the OBOR /CPEC/ baluchi terrorists / trump / modi / QUAD / whuhan fiascos hit them, before that they were seem to generally have been on track and on schedule, give or take a few years.

However, what seems to be increasingly problematic appears to be their dynamic gaming abilities to incorporate the modifying scenarios and their institutional flexibility to act rapidly on mutating and emerging situations. This organizational inertia is not ideally where they want to be.

trump and Modi are the two black swans that prematurely derailed and exposed xi's master plans. Now biden is also travelling down the same beaten path, meaning that the ameriki deep state has woken up and is sensing grave danger to the ameriki exceptionalism and their long standing preeminence in the global setup.

The recent G7 + India summit is a case in point. the cheeni have been reduced to hurling tired old invectives and resorting to jaded rhetoric after the meeting.

comma la heiress carries a huge chip on her commie shoulders and her silly dependence on the BLM makes her vulnerable to the guiles of the chinese. The BLM are an even more dangerous version of India's naxalites and with almost the same worldwide connections.

The cheeni are now coming at India from the south and of late increasingly from the northeast as well. These attacks were as foreseen by India but what we seem to have missed out was the lakshadweep route being in play as well.

The hans are infuriated that they have been thwarted in India, australia, europe and they have had little say in how matters in the gelf have played out because the amerikis have a lock on the ruling jehadi despots there.

The hans have strategic access to the gelf waters for some time, including the IOR and points beyond but their urgent quest for energy security, raw materials, as well as, food security, is far from over.

just observe the apoplectic reactions of china to the australians blocking all chinese investments and reneging on what the chinese thought were done deals, a la sri lanka's hambantotha.

They see India and australia as essential parts of their critical supply chains for raw materials, food security and cheap captive human resources. They particularly need India's docile, hardworking, uncomplaining, apolitical, non partisan and cooperative labor as can be seen all over the gelf.

The cheeni need markets to survive and major global markets are increasingly making things difficult for them. The whuhan virus fiasco including their pathetically non performing vaccines which no one seems to want has opened xi's eyes as to where they stand in the global order.

the cheeni are not ready yet for any military confrontation and this rankles. By the time they get ready, the counter strategies against china would have greatly solidified and the military options for china would have become prohibitively unacceptable.

The QUAD is hurting the chinese immensely. It has become a nightmare for them.

One, because India covers the straits of malacca quite capably and is militarily confident of effectively sealing off access, if required, and again the amerikis are more than capable of doing to the chinese exactly what they did to the russkis by arming the afghans and the mujahideen.

If the hans try to ship oil and supplies via the long route, then a naval blockade, enforced by the QUAD + european partners may stare them in the face.

If hostilities break out and the hans get aggressive, the amerikis will arm the afghans and the baluchis and effectively cut off the cheeni oil pipelines, rail, and road routes, from gwadar to xingjiang, or even from chabahar to xingjiang going via paki land or afghan land.

This time around, the pakis will be cut out of the equation as the amerikis would have learned from their previous experiences with these double dealing theives and china will find out the hard way what the pakis are really capable of when grand theft is the name of the game.

The chinese govt also seem overly worried about the hostility and the animosity of the Indian public towards china, the country, and also the chinese people. One wonders why.

my two paise onlee
Vayutuvan
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by Vayutuvan »

chetak wrote:Any number of congresses will not change the chinese ambitions regarding India. we are seen as a vassal state, meant and existing only to serve the cultured and slant eyed denizens of the great middle kingdom and perpetually remain in their servitude.
Have you blogged this anywhere? It has some good nuggets of analysis if shorn of the BRF jargon.
DavidD
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by DavidD »

chola wrote:
Lisa wrote:I had an interaction with an official from China and he directed me to this document in reference to my question of Xi Jinping/CCP standing in China (it in essence says that there was virtually complete satisfaction with the government at all levels of governance). He was in fact suggesting that both Xi position and that of his government were completely secure and that the entire country was in complete agreement with ALL government policies.

"Even in 2003, the central government received a strong level of satisfaction, with 86.1% expressing approval and 8.9% disapproving. This high level of satisfaction increased even further by 2016, but such increases were minimal because public satisfaction was already high to begin with. By contrast, in 2003, township-level governments had quite negative satisfaction rates, with 44% expressing approval and 52% disapproving. By contrast, in 2003, township-level governments had quite negative satisfaction rates, with 44% expressing approval and 52% disapproving. However, by 2016, these numbers had flipped with 70% approving and only 26% disapproving."

If this has already been discussed, I apologise for posting it and if it is in the incorrect tread, please delete.

https://ash.harvard.edu/publications/un ... rough-time

https://ash.harvard.edu/files/ash/files ... 6.2020.pdf
Xi has made himself their protector against a hostile West. Without him and the CCP, their Cheen would be partitioned and humiliated by the colonial powers like they were in 1800s. They hammer that point to their people over and over.

Without Xi and the CCP, Chinese will be poor again and China will be crushed. So of course being taught this a vast majority of Hans will support him.
Yeah but is that any different from 2003? The CCP has been marketing itself as the savior of China from kindergarten onwards since at least when I was going to school there in the 90s.
ramana
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by ramana »

Rand Corp study on China:
https://www.rand.org/topics/china.html
Lots of articles to read and digest.
ramana
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by ramana »

DavidD wrote:
chola wrote:
Xi has made himself their protector against a hostile West. Without him and the CCP, their Cheen would be partitioned and humiliated by the colonial powers like they were in 1800s. They hammer that point to their people over and over.

Without Xi and the CCP, Chinese will be poor again and China will be crushed. So of course being taught this a vast majority of Hans will support him.
Yeah but is that any different from 2003? The CCP has been marketing itself as the savior of China from kindergarten onwards since at least when I was going to school there in the 90s.
Of late I have read quite a few books on China: history, politics, Confucius, Three Kingdoms, Qing Dynasty, Mao, Deng, and Xi. About 15 books in the last 45 days.

What I realize is yes Xi Jinping is different than the rest.
Since 2200 BC, China had eleven major dynasties with two large Warring States periods and the Republic and Communist China. The remarkable thing is every king claimed to be the Emperor of all China. And the Mandate of Heaven (MoH).
MoH sounds esoteric but it really means people's acceptance. When things are going well under an Emperor then people think he has the Mandate of Heaven. Conversely, if things go bad he has lost the MoH.
So how can things go wrong in China?
Natural calamities like famines, earthquakes, crop failure, epidemics, etc.
Usually, the Emperor has to add nobles to govern his provinces and surrounds himself with courtiers who advise him. As things go bad the Emperor gives more power to his courtiers who become corrupt and grab resources and increase the dissent.
This leads to loss of MoH.
This leads to a rebellion in provinces or revolt in the capital. Or foreign invasions.
This leads to the loss of the throne and a new Emperor takes over starting a new dynasty.
Then the cycle begins again. This is called dynastic change or dynastic cycle.
Note there is no requirement for the Emperor to be a noble birth. He can be a commoner(Han) or even a foreigner.
In fact, two of the eleven dynasties were founded by commoners, and three by foreigners: Jin, Mongol/Yuan, Qing.
Let us come to modern times.
Qing dynasty faced rebellions: White Lotus in 1792, Boxer, 1900, and Wu Chang in 1912. So it lost its MoH as it also faced foreign wars like the Opium Wars, and the establishment of trading zones by European powers.
Qing Dynasty ended with the establishment of a Republic under Sun Yat Sun.
The Republic was challenged by Communists and created a Warring States period.
During this, they faced invasion by Imperial Japan before WWII also.
The Republic was defeated and exiled to Taiwan and Mao Zedong founded the People's Republic of China (PRC).

In modern times there are no foreign tribes out to invade. However, both Sun Yat Sun's Republic and Mao's Communist China are both foreign ideologies that defeated one another. And faced invasion from Imperial Japan.

Mao was autocratic and revamped the Chinese state and created new structures of power. He was brutal as the first Emperor Qin. Mao faced the Great Famine from 1958 to 1962. He faced revolts by the Gang of Four. He either executed his rebels or sent to re-education camps in minor cases.

Deng took over from Mao and brought a coterie to power. They launched halting reforms after the disaster of the Sino-Vietnam war. These reforms were half-hearted and lead to lots of dissents and created the Tienanmen Square uprising. This uprising was feared by CPC to be like Wu Chang that uprooted the Qing Dynasty. The CPC leaders feared the fate of Nicolai Ceausescu who was hanged in Romania. So they crushed the TMS uprising. And brought in reforms and a smooth succession process. They brought in term limits and chose the successors who were like understudies to the Chairman. This went on for four terms till Xi Jinping was selected in 2011.
XJP overturned the succession process and claimed the leadership for life. He used corruption charges to purge rivals and the coterie. He now wields power like the ancient Chinese Emperors. He has his courtiers like the old Emperors who do things to please him.

If you see the pattern the mapping is
Communist Party= Dynasty
Chairman = Emperor
CPC = Courtiers
Provincial Governors= Same as before
Generals= similar to Eunuchs subservient to Emperor

Recently Financial Times had a comparison of XJP China to Tsarist Russia and showed the stratification of the Chinese Communist party into three groups and the leadership.
They are wrong.
The comparison should be to ancient China which had also a pyramid structure comprising of a large base of peasants, with a second layer of the gentry or non-farming people, a third layer of officialdom, and the apex of the Emperor and his court. And similar upward mobility in these layers during favorable Mandate of Heaven times or stratification and downward mobility during the loss of Mandate of Heaven.

So in my not-so-expert opinion, I submit PRC is undergoing the Dynastic Cycle and we are going to see a period of turmoil.
XJP could be the last Emperor of the Communist Dynasty.
Last edited by ramana on 23 Jun 2021 11:53, edited 1 time in total.
ramana
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by ramana »

India won't beat China by imitating them. It will lead to becoming Massa's Gungadin.

We need to understand China for it looks at the future through its own past.
RKumar

Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by RKumar »

Thanks, Ramana for providing a summary of your studies.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by VinodTK »

ramana wrote: :
:
:
If you see the pattern the mapping is
Communist Party= Dynasty
Chairman = Emperor
CPC = Courtiers
Provincial Governors= Same as before
Generals= similar to Eunuchs subservient to Emperor

Recently Financial Times had a comparison of XJP China to Tsarist Russia and showed the stratification of Chinese Communist party into three groups and the leadership.
They are wrong.
The comparison should be to ancient China which had also a pyramid structure comprising of large base of peasants, with second layer of gentry or non-farming people, third layer of officialdom, and the apex of Emperor and his court. And similar upward mobility in these layers during favorable Mandate of Heaven times or stratification and downward mobility during loss of Mandate of Heaven.

So in my not so expert opinion I submit PRC is undergoing the Dynastic Cycle and we are going to see a period of turmoil.
XJP could be last Emperor of Communist Dynasty.
Excellent summerization Ramana
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by AshishA »

ramana wrote: So in my not so expert opinion I submit PRC is undergoing the Dynastic Cycle and we are going to see a period of turmoil.
XJP could be last Emperor of Communist Dynasty.
I think it can be avoided if he does stalinism. That is regular purging of elites and bringing in fresh cadre. We shouldn't assume that he hasn't learnt from history too.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by ramana »

That phase is over.
That's what I am saying.
Please read over again.

The Imperial exam system was abolished in 1911.
With that, the need to study the Chinese classics was over too.
Yet both Mao and Xi list the Chinese classics among their favorite books.
So they have read them too.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by DavidD »

ramana wrote:
DavidD wrote:
Yeah but is that any different from 2003? The CCP has been marketing itself as the savior of China from kindergarten onwards since at least when I was going to school there in the 90s.
Of late I have read quite a few books on China: history, politics, Confucius, Three Kingdoms, Qing Dynasty, Mao, Deng, and Xi. About 15 books in last 45 days.

What I realize is yes Xi Jinping is different than the rest.
Since 2200 BC, China had eleven major dynasties with two large Warring States periods and the Republic and Communist China. Remarkable thing is every king claimed to be Emperor of all China. And the Mandate of Heaven (MoH).
MoH sounds esoteric but it really means peoples acceptance. When things are going good under an Emperor then people think he has Mandate of Heaven. Conversely if things go bad he has lost the MoH.
So how can things go wrong in China?
Natural calamities like famines, earthquakes, crop failure, epidemics etc.
Usually the Emperor has to add nobles to govern his provinces and surrounds himself with courtiers who advice him. As things go bad the Emperor gives more power to his courtiers who become corrupt and grab resources and increase the dissent.
This leads to loss of MoH.
This leads to rebellion in provinces or revolt in the capital. Or foreign invasions.
This leads to loss of throne and a new Emperor takes over starting a new dynasty.
Then the cycle begins again. This is called dynastic change or dynastic cycle.
Not there is no requirement for the Emperor to be a noble birth. He can be a commoner or even a foreigner.
In fact two of the eleven dynasties were founded by commoners, and three by foreigners: Jin, Manchu, Qing.
Lets come to modern times.
Qing dynasty faced rebellion White Lotus in 1792, Boxer, 1900 , and Wu Chang in 1912 t. So it lost its MoH as it also faced foreign wars like the Opium Wars, and establishment of trading zones by European powers.
Qing Dynasty ended with the establishment of a Republic under Sun Yat Sun.
The Republic was challenged by Communists and created a Warring States period.
During this they faced invasion by Imperial Japan before WWII also.
The Republic was defeated and exiled to Taiwan and Mao ZeDung founded the People's Republic of China (PRC).

In modern times there are no foreign tribes out to invade. However both Sun Yat Sun Republic and Communist China are both foreign ideologies that defeated one another. And faced invasion from Imperial Japan.

Mao was autocratic and revamped the Chinese state and created new structures of power. He was brutal like the first Emperor Qin. Mao faced Great Famine from 1958 to 1962. He faced revolts by Gang of Four. He either executed his rebels or sent for re-education camps in minor cases.

Deng took over from Mao and brought in a coterie to power. They launched halting reforms after the disaster of Sino-Vietnam war. These reforms were half-hearted and lead to lots of dissent and created Tienanmen Square uprising. This uprising was feared by CPC to be like Wu Chang that uprooted the Qing Dynasty. The CPC leaders feared the fate off Nicolai Ceausescu who was hanged in Romania. So they crushed the TMS uprising. And brought in reforms and a smooth succession process. They brought in term limits and chose the successors who were like understudy to the Chairman. This went on for four terms till Xi Jinping was selected in 2011.
XJP overturned the succession process and claimed leader for life. He used corruption charges to purge rivals and the coterie. He now wields power like the ancient Chinese Emperors. He has his courtiers like the old Emperors who do things to please him.

If you see the pattern the mapping is
Communist Party= Dynasty
Chairman = Emperor
CPC = Courtiers
Provincial Governors= Same as before
Generals= similar to Eunuchs subservient to Emperor

Recently Financial Times had a comparison of XJP China to Tsarist Russia and showed the stratification of Chinese Communist party into three groups and the leadership.
They are wrong.
The comparison should be to ancient China which had also a pyramid structure comprising of large base of peasants, with second layer of gentry or non-farming people, third layer of officialdom, and the apex of Emperor and his court. And similar upward mobility in these layers during favorable Mandate of Heaven times or stratification and downward mobility during loss of Mandate of Heaven.

So in my not so expert opinion I submit PRC is undergoing the Dynastic Cycle and we are going to see a period of turmoil.
XJP could be last Emperor of Communist Dynasty.
I don't disagree with anything you said, though my previous comment was limited to the CPC's courting of admiration from the Chinese people.

As for the dynastic cycle, I agree as well. Turmoil will come, nothing lasts forever, but typically a Chinese dynasty is fairly strong for the first 100 to 150 years, so turmoil may not come in our lifetimes. Take the Qing dynasty for example--peak, and therefore decline did not come until late in Qianlong's rule, some 150 years or so after the founding of the dynasty.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by ramana »

Thanks for the feedback. Someone did a math modeling of the Chinese dynasty and tried to fit the math relationship.


Historical Dynamics of the Chinese Dynasties

The eleven dynasties were from one generation to quite a long duration.
Some of them were short-span due to losing the MoH quickly.
I think Communist dynasty rule will be short span for its against Chinese societal norms.
Even though people don't study Chinese classics they do follow the precepts quite closely.

Anyway, let us see.
One big takeaway for me is how closely the dynastic process still applied to modern China.
I was taught that the Republics changed everything.
If I had any way to change history, it would have been to have Sun Yat Sun declare a new Empire with succession by nomination and selection.
Deviating from Imperium led to many troubles in Chinese society.
They did not deserve it.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by Rudradev »

Very informative summary Ramana garu.

Just one minor point-- wasn't Yuan dynasty (1279-1370) also founded by foreigners (Mongols?) In addition to the three you mentioned.

Also very interesting that, somewhat counterintuitively, the concentration of authority in one emperor-figure in fact increases direct accountability of the ruler to the people (by the "Mandate of Heaven" mechanism).

In the period between Li Peng and Hu Jintao, the system of smooth transitions and term limits made the MOH more diffuse and not focused in one person. It was like the courtiers were taking turns to wield the imperial power, so none of them was answerable to the MOH in the way a single identifiable emperor would have been. Thus the people could be strung along by a steadily increasing standard of living and economic opportunity because the MOH had been effectively outsourced from them to the CPC's system of power distribution. This too would have had its limits eventually-- but it was stable enough for Wall Street (and the globalist economic system) to profit from in the short/medium term, so they stood behind it by every means.

XJP returned to the classic imperial system as you say. While the traditional dynamics of MOH made it easier for him to gain absolute power, they may also make him more vulnerable than the CPC rule was from 1990-2012.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by DavidD »

ramana wrote:Thanks for the feedback. Someone did a math modeling of Chinese dynasty and tried to fit math relationship.
The eleven dynasties had from one generation to quite long duration.
Some of them were short span due to losing the MoH quickly.
I think Communist dynasty rule will be short span for its against Chinese societal norms.
Even though people don't study Chinese classics they do follow the precepts quite closely.

Anyway lets see.
One big take away for me is how closely the dynastic process still applied to modern China.
I was taught that the Republics changed everything.
If I had any way to change history, it would have been to have Sun Yat Sun declare a new Empire with succession by nomination and selection.
Deviating from Imperium led to many troubles of Chinese society.
They did not deserve it.
Well I think it's best to see past the verbiage e.g. MoH. It's really poor governance that dooms Chinese dynasties, MoH is just an excuse people to justify declaring themselves emperors. With the way the standard of living in China has improved, I don't see the groundswell of support for insurrection as likely.
Very informative summary Ramana garu.

Just one minor point-- wasn't Yuan dynasty (1279-1370) also founded by foreigners (Mongols?) In addition to the three you mentioned.


I think he meant to type Mongol rather than Manchu in that sentence.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by ramana »

David D, Yes should be Mongol or Yuan dynasty.
Will correct it.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by ramana »

Rudradev, Yes the Deng's succession mechanism diffused the Mandate of Heaven accountability which as David points out is people's acceptance or jana samudaya.
Xi Jinping by reverting old style Emperor will face public anger in case of any problems.
And he is facing problems as the Financial Times article wrote.
Will find the link and post.
Also Gordon Chang who complains all the time is saying same thing.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by ramana »

How Xi's China came to resemble Tsarist Russia
Jamil Anderlini


https://www.ft.com/content/19839434-763 ... d4b76957c9

The very first line of the Chinese Communist party’s constitution declares it is “the vanguard of the Chinese working class”. The document mentions “revolution” eight times, while the accompanying constitution for the People’s Republic declares it a “socialist state . . . led by the working class and based on an alliance of workers and peasants”.

But according to its own statistics and the IMF, China is one of the most unequal places on earth, with far worse inequality than most capitalist societies. Today, barely 35 percent of the party’s 92m members are classed as blue-collar workers or peasants — less than the proportion categorised as bureaucrats, managers or professionals.

{Ancient China also was pyramidal structure consisting of a large number of peasantry, gentry, officialdom and the Imperial Court}

In reality, the last ruling Communist party of a major country has morphed into a conservative reactionary party bent on preserving the power of state capitalist elites and advancing a distinctly 19th-century form of ethno-nationalist imperialism.

{With time the old reactionaries become new vested interests.}

None of this will be allowed to spoil the festivities as the CCP celebrates the centennial of its founding next month. All authoritarian systems bend historical facts to fit political imperatives but the founding of the CCP stands out for its malleability. Even the date has been revised. The same applies to the role of the great dictator Mao Zedong — a minor provincial attendee at the time but now the central figure in the CCP creation story.

To question the accuracy of this is to commit the crime of “historical nihilism” — an actual crime as of earlier this year, when Beijing introduced jail sentences for anyone who “insults, slanders or infringes upon” the memory of national heroes. 

In simple terms, the century of the CCP can be divided into four distinct epochs. The first three are the revolutionary period in the 1920s, 30s and 40s, the brutal Maoist era following the establishment of the People’s Republic in 1949 and the economic and political liberalisation under Deng Xiaoping and his successors.

Xi Jinping is the first Chinese leader since the death of Mao in 1976 who was not handpicked by Deng and he has consciously set out to define a fourth era in party rule. This involves a dramatic expansion of China’s military, a far more assertive stance globally and total suppression of dissent. Economically, he has laid out a state-dominated vision of self-reliance that one former World Bank official describes as a “wartime” economic plan.
{ Xi Jinping is now expanding the CPC idea of China like established Emperors did in earlier times. Usually the third or fourth Emperor reaches a height for that dynasty.}

The most accurate political comparison is probably with Russia in the 19th century, under Tsar Nicholas I or Alexander III. “Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era” was inserted into the constitution in 2017 and has been endlessly lionised ever since. Although party officials struggle to clearly define this new ideology, it describes a deeply conservative policy that closely resembles the “orthodoxy, autocracy and nationality” — also known as “faith, tsar and fatherland” — dogma of Nicholas I.

Instead of the Russian Orthodox Church, Xi emphasises a pseudo-religious mix of Sinicized Marxism, Confucianism and Maoism. The other two pillars of CCP rule today — autocracy and ethno-nationalism — are virtually identical to those of Nicholas I, although the mass incarceration and re-education of Muslim Uyghurs and other minorities is more ambitious than anything the tsars ever attempted in peacetime.
{Xi knows after Communism, China needs a thought process. He is updating Confucianism with Modernist ideas devoid of Emperors (No Mandate, no divine rights) but not autocrats and socialism. He calls this “Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era”}

For today’s CCP, the collapse of the Soviet Union holds the same feverish place in the imagination as the French revolution did for the Romanovs. This fear of collapse, disintegration and popular revolt is perhaps the most powerful force behind the Communist party’s sharp authoritarian turn over the past decade.
{Incorrect. It was the fall of Romania's Nicolai Ceausescu and his death that scared the CPC. The lesson they learnt in the FSU collapse is that the Soviet Army became a nationalist force and staged a coup. Hence, CPC made PLA subservient to the party apparatus. The other lesson was to make the Chinese elite rich and partake of state capitalism unlike in FSU. }

Along with this renewed repression, Xi has abolished one of the great secrets of the party’s success and longevity. Deng Xiaoping is rightly given credit in the west for his economic liberalisation — for his pragmatic belief that “It doesn’t matter whether a cat is (socialist) white or (capitalist) black, as long as it catches rats”. But equally important was his attempt to solve the age-old succession and renewal problems of authoritarian systems.

Beginning in the late 1970s, Deng banned personality cults and introduced collective leadership, mechanisms for intraparty democracy, term limits on top leaders and a process for the peaceful transfer of power between generations of cadres.
{Deng needed to create an orderly transition for he didn't want the dynastic turmoil with each succession. He saw the turmoil after Mao Zedong's death. However, it also created an entrenched leadership that was utterly corrupt safe in the knowledge they could loot so long as they don't challenge the chosen successors. Corruption has been a bane of Chinese society and created an undercurrent for losing the Mandate of Heaven.}

Xi has reversed all these innovations. In doing so, he may well extend his own rule but he is likely to have shortened the life of the party.
{One more reason why I say Xi could be the last Emperor of the Communist dynasty!}
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by tapan »

If this defection has really happened then this is a massive blow to the CCP and a huge coup for the Americans.

https://www.newsweek.com/who-dong-jingw ... ry-1602946
ramana
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by ramana »

There were many other defections recently after 19 th Congress
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by Cyrano »

While history holds lessons that can be of tactical value, for any strategic move one has to base one's judgement on the interplay of present day forces. Just like Europeans did not need to draw lessons from the past to establish their global dominance in the 18th and 19th centuries because they had industrial revolution backed naval power to become mercantile overlords and they carved up the most productive regions of the planet between them. There was no historical precedent for this. The consequent influx of huge wealth them led them to 2 major wars WW-1 and WW-2 and ended up nearly annihilating each other and led to the demise of the Colonial world order. There is no historical precedent for this either which they could have studied and avoided what followed. Those who make history are poor students of it, it seems!

Comparisons with history be it ancient Chinese kingdoms or Tsarist rules are interesting, however there are 3 major differences in today's context.

1. WMD - these have made an all out war between major powers nearly impossible. China can keep needling others and nibble at this or that advantage, but all out dominance over any major country is no longer possible. Of course this goes both ways.
2. Information asymmetry - the pyramidal or layered structures of the past have endured due to this. Information Age and technological progress has made this asymmetry very difficult to hold on to. China is putting in a huge effort to control information and they know any breach in their control will blow up the powder keg on which their asses are sitting to hold it tight. India and the G8 haven't seriously tried to exploit this weakness - wonder why.
3. Global spread of diaspora - This is a much subtler factor in the intermeshing of cultures and economies in this post colonial era. In case of a major conflict between US + G7 block and China, how would the millions of Chinese settled in those countries react and behave? This is an unknown. Same goes for India wrt to the G8 countries, and many Indians are in positions of responsibility and some degree of power.

China's (or CCP's) quest (to my non expert eyes) seems to be for Respect & Resources. The first to extract some kind of pointless revenge for its past defeats against present adversaries who neither know all that nor really care; and the second to feed and sustain its 1.5 billion population whose future demographics are more than worrisome. The emphasis on the first (seeking Respect) wrt external world also helps to hold the people together internally and mobilise in the effort to secure the second (grabbing Resources - geo, physical, goods, IP etc.)

When CCP starts going overboard on Respect (wolf warrior diplomacy or Confuscious institutes for ex) the ex-Colonial powers tolerate it to some extent. But when it starts making serious gains on Resources, the always-Mercantile powers of G8 will gang together and react. Which is what we are starting to see now I believe (and hope).

JMT.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by ramana »

So you are relying on history to make statements about present!

Qing dynasty at its height was very powerful. It was its weakening from late 18th century that led to the "century of humiliation" which ended the Imperium but as Transformation happened the Tradition persisted as we showed here.
Yes there is some change in structures but it still persists in the underlying circumstances.
And history will guide as we go into the unknown future.

G-7 etc are in decline after exhaustion from the century of wars in Europe: two hot and one cold war.

And demography is the driver.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by chola »

History will provide little guide here I think. No previous chini dynasty was ever this engaged in global trade or have the connections to the world like this one (tourists, students, remittance-sending migrants, etc.)

Previous chini dynasties lasted centuries because cheen was mostly isolated in its part of the world where change occurs at glacial speed. This dynasty? It'll be 100 years old soon but with global ideas running rampant with the world's largest trade system, outbound tourist and overseas student populations it is unlikely to last as long as the Han, Tang, Ming or Qing. And the CCP itself is based on a phoren ideology and it did a good number on erasing much of the traditional culture.

IMO the best things to look at are the current trends of Cheen and other related Sinosphere states and extrapolate. Anyone in 1980 who saw what happened with Japan and the Four East Asian Tigers could have predicted to a good extent the chini assault on global trade. They could also have predicted the demographic trend of rapid aging and sharp drops in fertility.

The one prediction that hasn't occurred yet is the conversion from authoritarianism to democracy like Korea and Taiwan. The CCP itself has changed from Mao to Deng to Xi and because it didn't want to end up like the Soviets we have a state capitalism model in Cheen. But this prediction might not have fully run its course yet. It might simply take longer for 1 billion plus to leave authoritarianism behind than for 20 million to do so like in Taiwan.

The US-Cheen Cold War/Tech War could end up accelerating this prediction by collapsing the CCP. Or it could end up entrenching it.

It all depends on how successful the CCP is with the "dual circulation" economy and the parallel tech eco-system.

Anyhoo, IMHO those current trends will give us a far better ability to predict what happens with Cheen than any ancient dynasty.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by Cyrano »

"It might simply take longer for 1 billion plus to leave authoritarianism behind than for 20 million to do so like in Taiwan"

CCP has learnt one lesson from the collapse of Soviet Union - a materially impoverished people will make the ruling class/system fall. Which was the very justification for communism in the first place. They have chosen a better strategy. Give them some economic freedom without any political freedom. This could be realised due to the west allowing China into WTO with the expectation that economic freedom will lead to exposure and integration with outside world and eventually lead to freer thinking and pave the road to democracy. But they never held CCP to that expectation. And CCP applied the same lesson in a clever way. They drugged the western economies with a huge supply of cheap goods that would help the western govts keep their people quiet despite dwindling post-colonial prosperity.

Now they have cleverly inverted the trick by becoming "growth markets" for superior quality/value western goods. In Europe, Germany's behaviour vis à vis China is the worst, since they think they cant rock the boat when China is the biggest growth market for their auto & mfg industry. France desperately sold them EPR nuclear reactors, and their luxury labels depend on Chinese markets. Heck even something as basic as wood panels for parquet flooring are now made in China from wooden logs exported from France and then sold in French hardware marts at <10€ / sq m. How can that even be economically viable beats me. So the entire wood processing capability will vanish from France in the next 5 years max. Idem for masks, any kind of plastic item, electronic item, phones, wires. Basically anything Europe makes today but also is avl on Ebay or Ali Express from a Chinese supplier will cease to be made in Europe in the next year or two max.

Remember how Covid exploded around Milan region in Italy last year? Why did it happen there? Not a random occurrence at all. G7-Italy was busy quietly selling off its last family jewels - ripping out entire manufacturing lines of high quality textile manufacture (which made them a luxury fashion power house) and was packing them off to China. Dozens of Chinese workers would come to Italy first, learn how to operate these textile lines, get full KT and go back to operate those lines once they are shipped to and installed in China. Thats how Covid got to Milan region. Actually its worse, a good part of European luxury brands are not just sourcing materials from China now, but also a lot of goods manufacturing, keeping local only the bare minimum steps needed to still get the made in Italy label.

The way the west has meekly folded on the repression in Hong Kong is pathetic.

Until the Ladakh standoff happened, even India was largely smoking Chinese cheap goods opium.

If I were China, the going has never been as good as now, I would just quietly keep milking the world for a couple of more decades and by 2040, I would de facto become the pre-eminent world power, even without trying anything else.

Xitler's & CCP's quest for overt dominance ***now*** instead of a covert dominance for couple of decades more has actually woken up the West from their stupor and they seem to be realising the slippery slope the have engaged in. The realisation that they have lost manufacturing capabilities, knowhow, IP, and are even losing control on sources for raw materials, which means they can no longer compete through innovation or desirability (affordability was already lost long ago) and have no control on any resources in their ex colonies either - is slowly sinking in.

India got a ruder wake up call thanks to the fact that we share a border with occupied Tibet. And China deals with us differently because we are a different kettle of fish compared to the west.

If CCP is sensible, they just need to tone down the rhetoric and make some conciliatory noises and bide their time for a couple of decades more. By then they would have become truly unstoppable. They can perhaps still do it because In India they have Pappu, Europe will be happy to go back to its petty infighting in Brussels, UK is anyway down the tube and US can't survive without Dollar stores, but can still sell Cocacola and p0rn all over the world.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by DavidD »

Cyrano wrote:"It might simply take longer for 1 billion plus to leave authoritarianism behind than for 20 million to do so like in Taiwan"

CCP has learnt one lesson from the collapse of Soviet Union - a materially impoverished people will make the ruling class/system fall. Which was the very justification for communism in the first place. They have chosen a better strategy. Give them some economic freedom without any political freedom. This could be realised due to the west allowing China into WTO with the expectation that economic freedom will lead to exposure and integration with outside world and eventually lead to freer thinking and pave the road to democracy. But they never held CCP to that expectation. And CCP applied the same lesson in a clever way. They drugged the western economies with a huge supply of cheap goods that would help the western govts keep their people quiet despite dwindling post-colonial prosperity.

Now they have cleverly inverted the trick by becoming "growth markets" for superior quality/value western goods. In Europe, Germany's behaviour vis à vis China is the worst, since they think they cant rock the boat when China is the biggest growth market for their auto & mfg industry. France desperately sold them EPR nuclear reactors, and their luxury labels depend on Chinese markets. Heck even something as basic as wood panels for parquet flooring are now made in China from wooden logs exported from France and then sold in French hardware marts at <10€ / sq m. How can that even be economically viable beats me. So the entire wood processing capability will vanish from France in the next 5 years max. Idem for masks, any kind of plastic item, electronic item, phones, wires. Basically anything Europe makes today but also is avl on Ebay or Ali Express from a Chinese supplier will cease to be made in Europe in the next year or two max.

Remember how Covid exploded around Milan region in Italy last year? Why did it happen there? Not a random occurrence at all. G7-Italy was busy quietly selling off its last family jewels - ripping out entire manufacturing lines of high quality textile manufacture (which made them a luxury fashion power house) and was packing them off to China. Dozens of Chinese workers would come to Italy first, learn how to operate these textile lines, get full KT and go back to operate those lines once they are shipped to and installed in China. Thats how Covid got to Milan region. Actually its worse, a good part of European luxury brands are not just sourcing materials from China now, but also a lot of goods manufacturing, keeping local only the bare minimum steps needed to still get the made in Italy label.

The way the west has meekly folded on the repression in Hong Kong is pathetic.

Until the Ladakh standoff happened, even India was largely smoking Chinese cheap goods opium.

If I were China, the going has never been as good as now, I would just quietly keep milking the world for a couple of more decades and by 2040, I would de facto become the pre-eminent world power, even without trying anything else.

Xitler's & CCP's quest for overt dominance ***now*** instead of a covert dominance for couple of decades more has actually woken up the West from their stupor and they seem to be realising the slippery slope the have engaged in. The realisation that they have lost manufacturing capabilities, knowhow, IP, and are even losing control on sources for raw materials, which means they can no longer compete through innovation or desirability (affordability was already lost long ago) and have no control on any resources in their ex colonies either - is slowly sinking in.

India got a ruder wake up call thanks to the fact that we share a border with occupied Tibet. And China deals with us differently because we are a different kettle of fish compared to the west.

If CCP is sensible, they just need to tone down the rhetoric and make some conciliatory noises and bide their time for a couple of decades more. By then they would have become truly unstoppable. They can perhaps still do it because In India they have Pappu, Europe will be happy to go back to its petty infighting in Brussels, UK is anyway down the tube and US can't survive without Dollar stores, but can still sell Cocacola and p0rn all over the world.
IMO Xi is choosing an overt fight now precisely because covert growth is no longer possible. From the Obama Era onward the US has increasingly chosen to limit China's development as it wakes up to China's encroachment on the last frontiers that make up a superpower in high tech manufacturing and currency. From the doomed TTP to the supercomputer chip ban and similar CFIUS scrutiny, China saw these moves as harbingers of greater resistance that was to come.

You may disagree, but I don't believe that the US was ever gonna let Huawei build the world's 5G network, for SMIC to eclipse TSMC/Intel, or for the Yuan to replace the Dollar as the world's reserve currency without a fight. China can stay under the covers when it was making toys and shoes, but not if it plans to make top end computer chips or buying oil in yuan. That's why the CCP can shoot a few hundred/thousand students and enter the WTO a few years later, but now the US won't let a relatively bloodless crackdown in HK go.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by DavidD »

ramana wrote:Rudradev, Yes the Deng's succession mechanism diffused the Mandate of Heaven which as David points out is people's acceptance or jana samudaya.
Xi Jinping by reverting old style Emperor will face public anger incase of any problems.
And he is facing problems as the Financial Times article wrote.
Will find the link and post.
Also Gordon Chang who complains all the time is saying same thing.
Even if Xi doesn't face any issues himself it might present big issues for the CCP down the line. Succession issues, whether it's poor choices or power struggles, tend to be the downfall of authoritarian governments. I think he set a dangerous precedence which if not addressed either during or immediately after his rule will contribute significantly to the downfall of the CCP.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by ramana »

About 4 years ago when we started this thread Xi Jinping looked all-conquering leader with the wisdom of Confucius, the strategy of Sun Tzu, and the ruthlessness of Mao Zedong.
Now he looks like presiding on the demise of the Communist dynasty phase of China.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by AshishA »

Cyrano wrote: If CCP is sensible, they just need to tone down the rhetoric and make some conciliatory noises and bide their time for a couple of decades more. By then they would have become truly unstoppable. They can perhaps still do it because In India they have Pappu, Europe will be happy to go back to its petty infighting in Brussels, UK is anyway down the tube and US can't survive without Dollar stores, but can still sell Cocacola and p0rn all over the world.
They are toning down the rhetoric.

In October 2020, the CCP plenum decided to prioritise income distribution and improve the quality of life in China under its new economic strategy to make its domestic market a key driver of economic growth.

And Xi has come under criticism from party elders for the backlash in West against China in case of Technology denial and the likes. So in the party workers meet he made no mention of CM2025 reference. But made lots of reference to income distribution, quality of life etc. So they are hoping for a business as usual wrt to the west. And have effected a course correction.

But I am sure that's not the case with their attitude towards India.
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by ramana »

ramana
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by ramana »

China in its own words talks to India via Chindu:
In my view quite important.


Image
ramana
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by ramana »

A few old posts of mine:

From BR Monitor in 2000:
viewtopic.php?p=2470990#p2470990

Where we are after Galwan:
viewtopic.php?p=2470992#p2470992
ramana
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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by ramana »

Nikkei Japan article circa 2018

China spending puts domestic Security Ahead of Military
...China's annual spending on domestic security has more than tripled since 2007, to reach 1.24 trillion yuan ($193 billion) last year, according to an analysis published on Monday by Adrian Zenz, who researches Chinese policy in Tibet and Xinjiang at the European School of Culture and Theology in Korntal, Germany. By his calculations, the total was about 19% more than both the comparable figure for the U.S. and the amount China spent on external defense....
So internal problems have been an issue for some time.

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Re: Understanding New China after 19th Congress

Post by ramana »

I found a tribute to Sir Michael Howard and posted it in Mil Forum.
Please read that and then this above post!

viewtopic.php?p=2504965#p2504965

Thanks, ramana




ramana wrote:
DavidD wrote:
Yeah but is that any different from 2003? The CCP has been marketing itself as the savior of China from kindergarten onwards since at least when I was going to school there in the 90s.
Of late I have read quite a few books on China: history, politics, Confucius, Three Kingdoms, Qing Dynasty, Mao, Deng, and Xi. About 15 books in the last 45 days.

What I realize is yes Xi Jinping is different than the rest.
Since 2200 BC, China had eleven major dynasties with two large Warring States periods and the Republic and Communist China. The remarkable thing is every king claimed to be the Emperor of all China. And the Mandate of Heaven (MoH).
MoH sounds esoteric but it really means people's acceptance. When things are going well under an Emperor then people think he has the Mandate of Heaven. Conversely, if things go bad he has lost the MoH.
So how can things go wrong in China?
Natural calamities like famines, earthquakes, crop failure, epidemics, etc.
Usually, the Emperor has to add nobles to govern his provinces and surrounds himself with courtiers who advise him. As things go bad the Emperor gives more power to his courtiers who become corrupt and grab resources and increase the dissent.
This leads to loss of MoH.
This leads to a rebellion in provinces or revolt in the capital. Or foreign invasions.
This leads to the loss of the throne and a new Emperor takes over starting a new dynasty.
Then the cycle begins again. This is called dynastic change or dynastic cycle.
Not there is no requirement for the Emperor to be a noble birth. He can be a commoner or even a foreigner.
In fact, two of the eleven dynasties were founded by commoners, and three by foreigners: Jin, Mongol/Yuan, Qing.
Let us come to modern times.
Qing dynasty faced rebellion White Lotus in 1792, Boxer, 1900, and Wu Chang in 1912 t. So it lost its MoH as it also faced foreign wars like the Opium Wars, and the establishment of trading zones by European powers.
Qing Dynasty ended with the establishment of a Republic under Sun Yat Sun.
The Republic was challenged by Communists and created a Warring States period.
During this, they faced invasion by Imperial Japan before WWII also.
The Republic was defeated and exiled to Taiwan and Mao Zedong founded the People's Republic of China (PRC).

In modern times there are no foreign tribes out to invade. However, both Sun Yat Sun Republic and Communist China are both foreign ideologies that defeated one another. And faced invasion from Imperial Japan.

Mao was autocratic and revamped the Chinese state and created new structures of power. He was brutal as the first Emperor Qin. Mao faced the Great Famine from 1958 to 1962. He faced revolts by the Gang of Four. He either executed his rebels or sent to re-education camps in minor cases.

Deng took over from Mao and brought a coterie to power. They launched halting reforms after the disaster of the Sino-Vietnam war. These reforms were half-hearted and lead to lots of dissents and created the Tienanmen Square uprising. This uprising was feared by CPC to be like Wu Chang that uprooted the Qing Dynasty. The CPC leaders feared the fate of Nicolai Ceausescu who was hanged in Romania. So they crushed the TMS uprising. And brought in reforms and a smooth succession process. They brought in term limits and chose the successors who were like understudies to the Chairman. This went on for four terms till Xi Jinping was selected in 2011.
XJP overturned the succession process and claimed the leader for life. He used corruption charges to purge rivals and the coterie. He now wields power like the ancient Chinese Emperors. He has his courtiers like the old Emperors who do things to please him.

If you see the pattern the mapping is
Communist Party= Dynasty
Chairman = Emperor
CPC = Courtiers
Provincial Governors= Same as before
Generals= similar to Eunuchs subservient to Emperor

Recently Financial Times had a comparison of XJP China to Tsarist Russia and showed the stratification of the Chinese Communist party into three groups and the leadership.
They are wrong.
The comparison should be to ancient China which had also a pyramid structure comprising of a large base of peasants, with a second layer of the gentry or non-farming people, the third layer of officialdom, and the apex of the Emperor and his court. And similar upward mobility in these layers during favorable Mandate of Heaven times or stratification and downward mobility during the loss of Mandate of Heaven.

So in my not-so-expert opinion, I submit PRC is undergoing the Dynastic Cycle and we are going to see a period of turmoil.
XJP could be the last Emperor of the Communist Dynasty.
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