Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

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ramana
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

The sauce for Peking duck is the sauce for the Taiwan duck.
I folks don't expect some retaliation there is a Taj Mahal to sell!
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

SSridhar wrote:
ramana wrote:The Pelosi visit to Taiwan reminds XJP that the challenge was and is the US and in East Asia.
Not waste effort in the Himalayas.
Indo-China Sea is the other hot spot.
ramana, the more I think about the May-July, 2020 events of Ladakh, the more it appears to me these days, that it was more an attempt to keep India bottled up without being able to offer any means of support to the rest of the QUAD if things took a turn for the worse in the Indo-China Sea (ICS).

It wanted to expend minimum energy to do so and any incidental gains of territory in the bargain were welcome. As usual, the Chinese tactic has always been to aim for multiple gains. The continued intransigence in the border meetings is a pointer to this approach. At the same time, the May 2020 events lay the foundation for PLA for any contemplated future action too. Wang Yi wants us to 'accept' this as the new normal and get on with China.
Using Occam's Razor the simplest explanation is the most probably one.
May-July 2020 were local action to present India with a fait accompli.
It would give two or three results
- Establish China's dominance at LAC and make India spend resources. Diverts from any Naval expansion plans.
- If successful would take Leh, the heart of Ladakh.
- Give the Opposition much-needed oxygen to take on NaMo at the start of the pandemic. (Congress Beijing Accord in 2008 witnessed by XJP)
- A fourth probable reason is China was not making headway since Ahmedabad in 2014 to Mamallapuram.
As I wrote earlier, Pelosi has brought the US and East Asia back into China's focus.
Vidhata intervenes in unexpected ways.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by g.sarkar »

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/03/us/p ... fears.html
As China Plans Drills Circling Taiwan, U.S. Officials Fear a Squeeze Play
Administration officials say they are hoping China’s military exercises last only a few days, but they are discussing their options if the movements expand into something more.
David E. Sanger and Amy Qin, Aug. 3, 2022

WASHINGTON — For years the deliberate “strategic ambiguity” in Washington’s China policy has left unclear how the United States would respond to a full-scale, amphibious invasion of Taiwan.
But an equally hard question — maybe harder, in the minds of many senior White House and defense officials — is how to respond to a slow squeeze of the island, in which Chinese forces cut off much of the access to it, physically or digitally.
That question may soon be tested for the first time in a quarter of a century. China’s declaration during Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit that it would begin live-fire military exercises in six locations encircling the island could set up the largest crisis in the Taiwan Strait since 1996, when President Bill Clinton ordered American aircraft carriers to the area.
But those exercises were significantly farther from Taiwan’s shores than the series the Chinese government has warned mariners and aircraft that it plans. And it took place in a far more benign strategic environment, back when China’s entry into the global economy was supposed to modify its behavior, and when Mr. Clinton would tell Chinese students that the spread of the internet would foster freedom and dissent. It was also when China’s military packed a fraction of the punch it now boasts, including anti-ship missiles developed to deter American warships from getting close.
Administration officials say that based on their assessments a full cutoff of access to Taiwan is unlikely — in large part because it would hurt China’s own economy at a time of severe economic slowdown. On Friday, the Group of 7 industrialized nations, the core of the Western alliance, warned China not to retaliate for Ms. Pelosi’s visit, clearly an effort to suggest that China would be widely condemned for overreacting, much as Russia was for its invasion of Ukraine.
But American officials say they worry that the events of the next few days could trigger an unintended confrontation between China’s forces and Taiwan’s, especially if the Chinese military launches a missile over the island, or if an incursion into disputed airspace leads to a midair conflict. Something similar happened 20 years ago, when a Chinese military aircraft collided with an American intelligence-gathering plane.
As the military exercises began early Wednesday, White House and Pentagon officials were monitoring the situation closely, trying to figure out if China was sending forces into each of the areas near Taiwan’s coast it has declared closed. But their assessment was that China’s strategy is to intimidate and coerce, without triggering a direct conflict.
Outside experts were more concerned that the exercise could escalate.
“This is one of the scenarios that is difficult to deal with,’’ said Bonny Lin, who directed the Taiwan desk at the Pentagon and held other defense positions before moving to the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, where she heads the China Power Project. “If a military exercise transitions to a blockade, when does it become clear that the exercise is now a blockade? Who should be the first to respond? Taiwan’s forces? The United States? It’s not clear.”
An exercise-turned-blockade is one of many scenarios that get “war-gamed” in Washington regularly, as American officials try to map out options before a crisis strikes. But nothing really replicates a real-life confrontation.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by Dilbu »

BRF had predicted months ago that China will create a distraction to take the focus away from internal issues by triggering military conflicts with its neighbours. Only question was whether it will be with India or with Taiwan. If somehow the current conflict with Taiwan/US gets diffused then we will have to prepare for a renewed conflict in the Himalayas.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by Shaktimaan »

Dilbu wrote:BRF had predicted months ago that China will create a distraction to take the focus away from internal issues by triggering military conflicts with its neighbours. Only question was whether it will be with India or with Taiwan. If somehow the current conflict with Taiwan/US gets diffused then we will have to prepare for a renewed conflict in the Himalayas.
Winnie the Pooh picked the wrong island to mess with. Taiwan is not just some tiny island to be used as a bargaining chip between great powers China and Uncle. Taiwan holds the key to the latest semiconductor manufacturing technology which is critical for economic success in the coming century. Uncle will not take any provocation lying down, a Chinese move on Taiwan would be a dagger straight into the heart of the US economy. Winnie knows this.

So yes Dilbuji,I agree that the threat to our territory in the Himalayas is grave and we need to be prepared.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by Dilbu »

More than US not getting the required chips they will be worried about Chinese getting their hands on those chips. That will result in a very real threat to the existing global order 10 years down the line.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by g.sarkar »

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/pelo ... -rcna41098
Pelosi went to Taiwan. How far does China want to take the crisis?
The consequences for the self-governing island, which China claims as its territory, could continue long after the House speaker's departure.
Rhoda Kwan and Jennifer Jett, Aug. 3, 2022

TAIPEI, Taiwan — House Speaker Nancy Pelosi made history and drew China’s wrath with her visit to Taiwan, which lasted less than a day. But the consequences for the Beijing-claimed island and the broader region could continue long after her departure.
China had warned for weeks against the visit by Pelosi, D-Calif., saying it violated the “one-China policy,” under which the U.S. recognizes Beijing as the sole legitimate government of China and has unofficial relations with self-governing Taiwan.
The threats stoked fears of a potential military standoff between the U.S. and China, elevating the political visit to the status of global showpiece. Nearly 3 million people were tracking Pelosi’s flight at some point Tuesday to see whether she would land on the island in spite of Beijing’s rhetoric, according to the site Flightradar24.
Within minutes of her arrival in Taipei, the Taiwanese capital, China angrily denounced the visit and said it would launch a series of military exercises around the island in response — parts of which will enter Taiwanese waters.
But Beijing is also largely following its usual playbook, experts say, with measures such as summoning the U.S. ambassador and announcing the suspension of some trade with Taiwan.
China’s response so far is “most certainly concerning, but not surprising,” said Lev Nachman, a political scientist at National Chengchi University in Taipei.
“This does not read as a new or escalated threat beyond what they have done in the past or what we might have expected,” Nachman said Wednesday via a messaging app. “That is not to make light of a serious threat, but it is a threat within the realm of what we might have expected.”
What's the background?
Taiwan was the Pelosi delegation’s third stop on a tour of Asia, which also includes Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and Japan. China viewed her visit to Taiwan as encouraging advocates of independence for the island of 23 million people.
Pelosi, 82, a longtime critic of China’s ruling Communist Party, said it was important to support Taiwan, which has come under growing pressure from Beijing in recent years.
“I think she has her own personal motivations,” Kharis Templeman, who studies Taiwan politics at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, said in an interview before Pelosi arrived. “She’s close to the end of her career in Congress, [and] this would be a capstone visit on a career in which she has consistently focused on human rights issues abroad.”
U.S. lawmakers and other current and former government officials regularly visit Taiwan, but Pelosi was the most senior lawmaker to visit the island since then-House Speaker Newt Gingrich in 1997.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by bala »

-- moved to US thread --
Last edited by bala on 05 Aug 2022 04:48, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by Raja »

How can we mandate anything of that sorts when we ourselves follow one china policy?
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by bala »

-- deleted
Last edited by bala on 05 Aug 2022 04:49, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

bala, This thread is for understanding China. Not to give policy prescription to the US.
That would be in the US thread.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by g.sarkar »

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/0 ... n-00050155
Beijing cuts U.S. cooperation to protest Pelosi’s Taiwan visit
China has gone ballistic in launching missiles over Taiwan — but the diplomatic bomb it dropped on Washington is mostly bluster.
PHELIM KINE, 08/05/2022

Beijing targeted a limited range of U.S.-China military and diplomatic cooperation initiatives Friday in China’s latest expression of public rage over House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s 19-hour visit to Taiwan earlier this week.
In a terse eight-point statement, China’s Foreign Ministry announced the cancellation of upcoming military-to-military talks and suspended joint efforts to tackle the climate crisis and China’s role in the U.S. opioid crisis. Minister Jing Quan of the Chinese embassy in Washington, D.C. said Friday that China has “also decided to adopt sanctions on Speaker Pelosi and her immediate family members.”
Beijing has telegraphed these moves for days as part of what China’s Foreign Ministry has described as responses to “domineering, arbitrary and unscrupulous” U.S. intentions toward the self-governing island. But the limited reach of that retaliation suggests Beijing is pulling its punches with carefully calibrated responses to insulate the already fraught bilateral relationship from serious harm.
“China’s not going for the jugular … [it’s] developing these countermeasures in a way to punish the United States without also hurting itself too much at the same time”, said Bonny Lin, former country director for China at the Office of the Secretary of Defense and director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “There are things [on the list] that we haven’t made significant progress with China on, that we have common interest to do, but they aren’t going to significantly rock the boat in terms of overall U.S.-China relations.”
The Chinese list of targeted cooperation areas excluded trade and health security related to the pandemic, suggesting an official effort to mitigate potential blowback that could harm China’s interests. “This seems underwhelming … there are plenty of things in the realm of what I call core concerns of China that they are leaving untouched,” said Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center.
At the top of Beijing’s list of targeted bilateral cooperation items was the cancellation of three upcoming military-to-military meetings, including the China-U.S. Theater Commanders talks, Defense Policy Coordination talks and Military Maritime Consultative Agreement meetings. Those cancellations are worrisome given the inadequacy of existing U.S.-China military crisis communications at a time when People’s Liberation Army forces are conducting an unprecedented level of ongoing live fire military drills in the vicinity of the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier.
High-level bilateral military contacts have long been a vexed issue. Beijing repeatedly rebuffed Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s efforts to secure a call with his Chinese counterpart, Wei Fenghe. Austin finally succeeded in speaking to Wei in April after almost 18 months of efforts.
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https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/chin ... -rcna41682
China halts military and climate ties with U.S. and sanctions Pelosi in fury over Taiwan visit
The latest retaliation came as military drills launched by Beijing sent warplanes, naval ships and missiles menacingly close to the small island democracy despite growing criticism.
Rhoda Kwan, Aug. 5, 2022

TAIPEI, Taiwan — China said Friday it would halt cooperation with the United States on areas including military relations and climate change while imposing sanctions against House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, as Beijing stepped up its retaliation to her Taiwan visit.
The new measures were announced as military drills Beijing launched furiously in the wake of her trip earlier this week sent warplanes, naval ships and missiles menacingly close to this small island democracy despite growing criticism.
The U.S. delegation’s unannounced visit to Taiwan has fueled a mounting crisis, raising fears of conflict in the region and stoking tensions between Washington, its allies and Beijing.
Beijing said Friday it will cancel phone calls between regional military commanders, defense meetings, talks on maritime safety and on climate change. It also said it would end cooperation with the U.S. on anti-drug efforts, returning illegal immigrants and transnational crime. Earlier, China took personal action against Pelosi, announcing sanctions on the speaker and her immediate family in response to what the Chinese Foreign Ministry called her “egregious provocations.”
The unspecified sanctions, China's latest retaliation for the brief trip to the self-ruling island it claims as its own territory, came as Washington and its allies urged de-escalation.
The U.S. summoned the Chinese ambassador Thursday to lodge a formal protest over Beijing's actions against Taiwan and reiterate that Washington does not want to stoke a crisis in the region, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby confirmed. The Washington Post first reported news of the rebuke.
Pelosi, in Japan for the last stop of her Asia tour, said China would not be allowed to succeed in its efforts to isolate Taiwan.
“They may try to keep Taiwan from visiting or participating in other places, but they will not isolate Taiwan by preventing us to travel there,” she said Friday hours before the sanctions against her.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ricky_v »

Perhaps not entirely germane to the topic of the thread
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/bab ... c-disaster
According to a new UN report, China’s population growth has collapsed by 94 per cent, from eight million a decade ago to just 480,000 last year. What’s particularly worrying for Chinese leaders is that this means a rapid reduction in the working population. The previous set of projected figures suggested that by the year 2100, China’s 15- to 64-year-old population would be 579 million. This has now been revised down to 378 million, a 35 per cent fall. If this prediction plays out, the implications for China – and the rest of the world – could be brutal.

Today, every 100 working-age Chinese need to support 20 retirees. If trends continue, by the turn of the next century, every 100 workers will have to support 120 retirees. This means China will have the largest drop in working-age population among any of the G20 economies by 2030, with more than 23 million fewer Chinese. In percentage terms, Japan and South Korea will shrink even faster – but they became rich before birth rates began plummeting.
How can the Chinese economy keep growing at 5 per cent or more if its working age population shrinks? A much more likely scenario is that with a more humdrum 2 to 3 per cent growth, the average Chinese in 2050 might be richer than their compatriots of a half-century before, but still much less well-off or productive than the average American.
The number of babies born in China fell to 10.6 million last year, 1.4 million lower than the year before. This was a lower birth rate than in the great famine of the 1950s, despite the fact that the one-child policy ended in 2015.
China’s middle class – the professional, high-skilled workforce on which future growth depends – has become wary about the future. A new phrase is circulating on social media – ‘graduation then unemployment’. (It rhymes in Chinese – biye jiu shiye.)
As economist George Magnus observes: ‘Chinese construction and property are probably the most important sector in the world economy, accounting for up to 29 per cent of annual Chinese growth.’ This won’t mean any sudden collapse. Domestic demand will keep China chugging along, but it makes it more likely that China will take an inward turn that feeds into a wider sense of frustration and anomie.

China’s neighbour Japan provides a picture of China’s possible future. Japan has seemed to engage less with the world since the economic downturn of the 1990s, and fewer young Japanese choose to get married and have children.

In Japan, half a million people live as modern-day hermits. They are known as hikikomori – recluses who withdraw from all social contact and often don’t leave their houses for years at a time. A government survey found roughly 541,000 hikikomori (1.57 per cent of the population), but many experts believe the total is much higher. Young Chinese are beginning to sound strikingly similar. Some declare they aren’t going to give in to the constant demands to work hard and contribute to GDP, and instead say they will ‘lie flat’ (tang ping). When accused by police of betraying future generations by not obeying Covid rules, the young declare mockingly that ‘we’re the last generation’: meaning they refuse to have children.
In recent months, a new term has been seen on Chinese social media – runxue – the ‘study of run’, as in ‘running away’. Young Chinese workers are dispirited by the cocktail of Covid restrictions, highly competitive working environments and social pressure to get married and do well financially.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by NRao »

Fight or surrender: Taiwan’s generational divide on China’s threats
The San Jiao Fort cafe on Kinmen Island may well be the best place in Taiwan to watch for the threat of invasion by China. Boasting a direct view of the Chinese city of Xiamen just 10 kilometers away, it is built atop an old military bunker, festooned with camouflage netting, and serves hot and cold beverages.

With Chinese warships now lingering off Taiwan’s coast and missiles falling into its seas, the divided loyalties of the cafe’s two proprietors say much about a generational shift in Taiwan that has transformed the island democracy’s relationship with China.

If China tried to take Taiwan by force, Chiang Chung-chieh, 32, would fight, even if the chances of winning are slim. Ting I-hsiu, 52, said he “would surrender.”

............................
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by NRao »

Interesting map:

Image
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by Cyrano »

Funnily enough elensly has demanded that Xi intervene personally and mediate between Ukrraine and Russia. May be he figured out his master (Bidenwa) also has a master ? :)
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by M_Joshi »

ricky_v wrote:Perhaps not entirely germane to the topic of the thread
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/bab ... c-disaster
According to a new UN report, China’s population growth has collapsed by 94 per cent, from eight million a decade ago to just 480,000 last year. What’s particularly worrying for Chinese leaders is that this means a rapid reduction in the working population. The previous set of projected figures suggested that by the year 2100, China’s 15- to 64-year-old population would be 579 million. This has now been revised down to 378 million, a 35 per cent fall. If this prediction plays out, the implications for China – and the rest of the world – could be brutal.

Today, every 100 working-age Chinese need to support 20 retirees. If trends continue, by the turn of the next century, every 100 workers will have to support 120 retirees. This means China will have the largest drop in working-age population among any of the G20 economies by 2030, with more than 23 million fewer Chinese. In percentage terms, Japan and South Korea will shrink even faster – but they became rich before birth rates began plummeting.
No need to wolly.. CCP will just make few more potent versions of Wuhan virus & all these retired oldies can be taken care of.. No burden on the system. No. 1 priority is the survival of the CCP, not the Chinese people.. Rest everything is collateral damage..
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by g.sarkar »

https://www.bbc.com/news/62460809
China-Taiwan: What we learned from Beijing's drills around the island
The new normal
Stephen McDonell, Beijing, 08/08/2022

The hardliners in the upper echelons of the Chinese Communist Party would probably be quite happy with where Nancy Pelosi's visit has left them.
Ms Pelosi gave them a window and they used it.
A series of more extreme military measures around Taiwan have now been thrust into the realm of "acceptability".
These moves - including firing missiles over the island - have become "acceptable" not because the international community approves of them but because they have happened, and Beijing has got away with it.
Each time the People's Liberation Army (PLA) flies fighter jets closer - or in greater numbers - across the Taiwan Strait, this becomes the new standard.
What's more, the very idea that mainland China might one day attack Taiwan to seize the territory by force is now being considered a likely possibility by many more Chinese people.
Again, this is seen as a win for those who want it to happen.
Other, more peaceful strategies for achieving what China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi described as Taiwan's "return to the motherland" are not being discussed currently - or certainly not in any detail.
A side benefit of this grand, live-fire show by the PLA has also been to accelerate the belief globally that China's military rise is unstoppable - this may possibly intimidate South East Asian neighbours which have rival claims to the South China Sea.
These vast military exercises would have taken some planning. It is hard to imagine that the generals conceived of them, all of a sudden, when it was leaked that Ms Pelosi was planning visit Taiwan.
What seems more likely is that they had the plans ready and pulled them out of the drawer because the opportunity presented itself.
As one laughing nationalist in Beijing put it when he was interviewed in the street last week, "Thanks comrade Pelosi"!
It would be dangerous though if the Chinese government became too caught up in its own belligerent rhetoric and started convincing itself that seizing and holding Taiwan could be relatively easy - rather than a tough, bloody, catastrophic event.
Some analysts even think that these war games have assisted the Taiwanese and US military in preparing defence strategies to ward off any attack from the mainland.
But the exercises were not enough for President Xi Jinping's government. On Friday night the foreign ministry announced that China was suspending cooperation with the US on cross-border crime, including narcotics, and maritime safety; and that all high-level US-China military dialogue were to be paused.
American media has also reported that calls from the US Defence Secretary, Lloyd Austin, and General Mark Milley, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, have gone unanswered from the Chinese side.
......
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by NRao »

Apparently China has released a white paper on Taiwan reunification (the first tweet may have it)

https://twitter.com/BhadraPunchline/sta ... 5884354560
1/3 “White paper's release is a warning to Taiwan authorities as well as external forces, as mainland is much stronger to solve Taiwan question under the new circumstances…
2/3 “White paper's elaboration of ‘one country, two systems’ for Taiwan draws on the experience & lessons of Hong Kong & Macao, and clearly states that ‘One Country’ is the precondition and foundation of ‘Two Systems’...
3/3 It is published “in the context of upcoming 20th CPC National Congress & the fact that China's economic power, military power have all surpassed those of past decades… mainland's ability to solve the Taiwan question is getting stronger.”
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by NRao »

Pardon my ignorance, I find this video interesting.

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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

Pelosi trip was to exert pressure and humiliate XJP before the 20th Congress.
And it had WH approval.
Once the objective is understood rest can follow.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by Mukesh.Kumar »

ramana wrote:Pelosi trip was to exert pressure and humiliate XJP before the 20th Congress.
And it had WH approval.
Once the objective is understood rest can follow.
Agree.

I would wager she was arm twisted into going. There was a report that surfaced a couple of days prior on her husband's accident under DUI with an unknown female present in the car.

As soon as she went the matter disappeared.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by NRao »

NRao
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by NRao »

Premiered Jul 29, 2022

This film examines the Chinese military. Subject matter experts discuss Chinese history, current affairs, and military doctrine. Topics range from Mao, to the PLA, to current advances in military technologies. “Near Peer: China” is the first film in a four-part series exploring America’s global competitors.

43 minutes long

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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by VinodTK »

Beijing Asks New Delhi to Reiterate ‘One China’ Principle
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“We hope that the Indian side could openly reiterate its One China policy like many other countries,” Sun Weidong, China’s ambassador to India, said in a post on the embassy’s website. “The One China principle is the political foundation of the China-India relations,” he said in a summary of his comments at a briefing in New Delhi on Saturday. More than 170 countries and international organizations have reaffirmed their commitment to the principle, he said

India follows the “One China” policy and recognizes the government in Beijing only, but hasn’t mentioned it in bilateral documents or in public statements for a long time. Public sentiment toward China has soured in the wake of deadly border clashes between the two neighbors in 2020, the worst in four decades.

The South Asian nation’s deliberate ambiguity and reluctance to reiterate the principle is in contrast to countries of the region and the G-7, whose members include the US, the UK, Japan and Germany. The G-7 foreign ministers said in a statement this month that there was “no change” in the “One China” policy or on Taiwan. Members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations have reaffirmed they only recognize Beijing.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

Outstanding!!!
Means a lot in diplomatese.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by Arima »

why should we accept One China policy openly when Cheen never missed a chance to punch us from Terrorism from TSP to J&K to North East Insurgency etc etc.
they did all trick with TSP to usurp our land and keep our border hot and occupied!!!
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by Pratyush »

Very interesting.

The PRC in its stupidity has created a situation where it's getting hammered from both east and west.

But the Americans in their stupidity are creating a safety valve for the PRC on the northern front.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by NRao »

About a month ago three Russian scientists associated with hypersonic missiles research were arrested. Two were prominent, from a research institute near Moscow. The third was a sickly guy from a research center way in the East of Russia. He had Level 4 cancer and died a natural death within days of his arrest. However, this guy who died, was arrested on charges of spying for the Chinese!!! Despite all the ruckus, all is not well between the two.

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A couple of days ago US announced that American ships and planes will transit the Taiwan Straits!!!
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by SSridhar »

Xi pulls out all stops to seek another term - Jayadeva Ranade
As China prepares for the 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in late October this year, clear signals emanating from Beijing strongly suggest that Chinese President Xi Jinping is confident of a third, and possibly longer tenure.

The clearest indicator is the Politburo meeting that Xi Jinping chaired on July 28 when he asked its members to be ready for “historic” changes. There are other strong indicators, like for example, Party Secretaries of provinces and senior party cadres crediting Xi’s thought on governance, economy etc for the successes and minister-level personnel appointments being effected prior to the Beidaihe meeting and the Party Congress.

On July 26-27, Xi gathered the most senior party and state officials for a two-day ‘study session’ to discuss the upcoming 20th Party Congress. Those attending included Politburo members, ministers, and military and provincial leaders. China’s authoritative Xinhua news agency reported that Xi asked them “to prepare to make history”. He said, “The upcoming 20th Party Congress is a very important conference held at a critical moment in the new journey of fully building a modern socialist country.” He simultaneously bolstered his Communist credentials by saying, “The Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era has been formed, achieving a new leap in the Sinicization of Marxism.” The meeting also endorsed Xi’s zero-Covid policy and warned against any slackening.

Party cadres throughout the country promptly began studying Xi Jinping’s speech at the Politburo study session, which received extensive official Chinese media coverage. Xi’s remarks reflect his confidence that he will be ‘re-elected’ at the Party Congress for another term. Rumours circulating in Beijing suggest he may possibly be conferred the new designation of Chairman. This would elevate him to the level of Mao Zedong and make him pre-eminent in the CCP. It would imply the end of decision-making by consensus among equals in the Politburo Standing Committee.

The Chief Justice of the Supreme People’s Procuratorate, Zhou Qiang, held a party group study session on July 29 specifically to discuss Xi’s speech to provincial cadres and welcome the 20th Party Congress. He described Xi’s speech as a “political proclamation” to promote the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.

Earlier on July 7, Qu Qingshan, head of the Institute of Party History and Literature of the CCP Central Committee, wrote a 10,000-character exposition in the ‘Discipline and Supervision Daily’ on July 7 on “Understanding and Grasping the ‘Two Establishes’ from the Future Dimension”. It focused on the geopolitical environment and Xi’s diagnosis of the challenges and opportunities arising from the great changes underway, and the strategy he has set to navigate the complex environment and achieve the great rejuvenation. Qu Qingshan was emphatic that “Xi Jinping’s thought and leadership will be needed for the foreseeable future”. It is significant that the article was published in the official newspaper of the party’s anti-corruption arm, the Central Discipline Inspection Commission (CDIC) and the National Supervisory Commission (NSC). While it avoided words like “leader” and “helmsman”, it shores up Xi’s credentials and position before the 20th Party Congress.

In addition, a large number of party secretaries and senior party cadres have publicly expressed their fealty to Xi Jinping. It is unlikely they would risk their careers by backing the wrong candidate. Their work reports to the respective provincial congresses contain numerous laudatory references to Xi. An example is the case of Li Qiang, Politburo member, Party Secretary of Shanghai and a close associate of Xi. There has been speculation that consequent to the public outcry in Shanghai against enforcement of the zero-Covid policy, Li Qiang might no longer be considered for elevation to the Politburo Standing Committee. However, Li Qiang’s report to the 12th Shanghai Party Congress on June 25, which includes 23 references to Xi, indicates he still aspires for a position in the Politburo Standing Committee.

Unconfirmed reports circulating in Beijing claim that cadres of China’s military industry might get increased representation in the next Central Committee (CC) and Politburo. There are an estimated eight such cadres in the 19th CCP CC. Ma Xingrui, a member of the 19th CCP CC was recently appointed Party Secretary of the Xinjiang-Uyghur Autonomous Region — usually a Politburo position. Jin Zhuanglong, who served as Deputy General Manager of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation and other State-owned Enterprises in the crucial military industry, is now in charge of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. Lei Peifan, Chairman of China Shipbuilding Corporation, has succeeded Jin Zhuanglong as the Executive Deputy Director of the Office of the Central Military-Civilian Integration Development Committee, which is also a minister-level position.

Xi, however, appears to be leaving nothing to chance. A video recently released by the Institute of Artificial Intelligence at Hefei Comprehensive National Science Center claims its Smart Political Education Bar uses artificial intelligence (AI) to read facial expressions and brain waves to “discern the level of acceptance for ideological and political education.” It said Communist Party members can be assessed in the levels of “determination to be grateful to the party, listen to the party and follow the party”. Articles and a video linking to the new AI programme were swiftly removed on July 3 shortly after they were published on Chinese social media.

The deleted article said: “The level of acceptance of ideological and political education of the individual party member can be evaluated” and that this new innovation will “quantify thought education” and create “new avenues for party building”. The tool will likely be used by the Central Party Committees while ‘approving’ the delegates to the 20th Congress selected by the Provincial Party Congresses.
Last edited by ramana on 02 Sep 2022 06:07, edited 1 time in total.
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Cyrano
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by Cyrano »

Xi's visit to Saudi might also be aimed at squashing rumours of ill health or withdrawal into a shell fearing viruses etc.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by g.sarkar »

https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/news ... na-decline
Ailing China on a decline
Lt Gen P.R. Shankar (Retd), August 21, 2022

How did you go bankrupt? Gradually, then suddenly.
Ernest Hemingway
China’s homebuyers have refused to pay mortgages. Its factories are exporting less. Its people are consuming less. Its major firms are delisted from the New York Stock Exchange. There is a rate cut out of the blue. The indicators in July are worse than in the April-June quarter. China is panicking at many levels. It does not need great insight to predict that China is ailing. The question is what are its ailments and will they lead to a permanent decline or not.
THE STUDY
In 2012, China was clocking impressive growth rates. It was the second largest economy. However, it was also showing signs of slowing down. A joint study titled “China 2030, Buildinga Modern Harmoniousand Creative Society” was carried out by World Bank and Development Research Centre of the State Council of PRC. This illuminative study identified China’s problems and offered solutions. Most importantly, it had China’s acceptance stamp. It was coincidental with Xi Jinping assuming power in 2013. China’s strengths were identified as: high savings, increasingly plentiful skilled labour, and potential for further urbanization. Its opportunity was in continued globalization and promising new technologies. China was advised to anticipate systemic risks and prepare appropriate responses. Prophetically, the importance of avoiding overconfidence and remaining vigilant against potential problems from social, economic, and natural causes were highlighted. Challenges included high inequality, inefficiencies in social service delivery, rapid aging of the population, shrinking labour force, high dependency ratios and managing growing economic, social, and cultural diversity. Challenges of quality and efficiency in education, health services, and in social security programs were also highlighted.
A six-point strategy was outlined. First, implement structural reforms to strengthen the foundations for a market-based economy. Second, accelerate the pace of innovation and create an open innovation system. Third, seize the opportunity to “go green”. Fourth, expand opportunities and promote social security for all. Fifth, strengthen the fiscal system. Sixth, seek mutually beneficial relations with the world. If the recommendations of this report were implemented even in part, China would have been a superpower by now.
In a decade since this study, China is ailing. However, China will not fail or collapse dramatically. China will remain the second largest economy for a long time to come. A billion plus people cannot be wished away. Understanding China’s ailments will indicate the extent of decline. In turn it will tell us how it affects the larger world and India. It is only then that we will be able to handle what is coming ahead.
MAJOR AILMENTS
Xi Jinping is a dyed in the wool communist of the Mao-Marx lineage. He has three ambitions: Be recognised as the greatest of all Chinese leaders; make China an unquestioned superpower; Perpetuate communist rule in China. His vision to achieve the Chinese Dream means complete state control, development of hard military power backed by strong economic power, and dominating the new type of great power relations, which will lead to the establishment of a Sino centric global order. Excessive economic liberalization, ever-growing and unbalanced material culture and wide inequity are to be jettisoned eventually. In this paradigm, Xi Jinping has yanked hard left and is making China a command economy. Large powerful state enterprises have taken precedence over a once vibrant private sector. “Sinification of Marxism”, “anti-corruption campaign”, “common prosperity”, “victory over Covid”, “a new model of win-win cooperation”, “greatest military on earth”, “strong military in a new era”, “dual circulation”, “revenge on the century of humiliation” have become the watchwords of Xi’s rule. As Xi heads into his third term he will deepen state control as against the World Bank recommendation of “strengthening the foundations for a market-based economy” or “seek mutually beneficial relations with the world”. Xi is China’s fundamental ailment. His model will ensure that China will decline and be at odds with the world at large. An ailing China under Xi will never fulfil the potential it once had.
China is undergoing the fastest demographic decline in human history irreversibly. A demographic transition which took 126 years in France, 46 years in the UK, 40 years in Germany and 24 years in Japan is happening in 21 years or less in China. The magnitude of the problem China faces today with a shrinking population, low birth rates, rapid aging, high dependency ratios, lower marriages, higher divorces, growing gender imbalances, and a shrinking labour force, has crystalised at least half a decade earlier than expected. It will result in wage increase, less productivity, a shrinking tax base and less profits. That is already visible. It also translates into less and different patterns of consumption. Shrinking population means reduced demand for infrastructure and real estate investment. An aging society and urbanisation also reduce availability of farmers to bring up the issue of food security. China is not yet rich enough to afford a rapidly ageing population. It does not have adequate pension funds, social safety net or an adequate health care system. The Chinese economy will inevitably shrink. The changing demography has widespread societal implications due to unmet “challenges of quality and efficiency in health services, and in social security programs”. This was foreseen but neglected. Currently, there is no serious attempt visible in the public domain to face or cure this problem except pronounce an unimplementable “Three Child Policy”. There are also rumours that the Chinese population has already dipped. Even if partially true, the decline has already commenced.
.....
Gautam
Last edited by ramana on 02 Sep 2022 05:49, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by Dilbu »

Hu Chunhua has a chance at Chinese premiership and why it will have implications for India
One name for promotion is on the top of many China watchers’ list – Hu Chunhua. Hu is likely to be the pick for the premiership to replace Li Keqiang. Hu is considered an efficient administrator by many. Hu is from the rival faction, which is often called the “league faction” because many members of this group started their political careers in the Communist Youth League (CYL).

An unsaid consensus has emerged over the years that divides power between the general secretary and the premier. The CCP general secretaries – currently President Xi – have come from the elitist coalition and the league faction’s premiers, sometimes called tuanpai. ‘Elitist coalition’ is a group of princelings or children of party elites who took over top power ranks – Xi is one of them.

If Hu succeeds in taking over premiership from Li Keqiang that would mean the bargaining of power, which has maintained a balance of power at the top of the party, is still functioning. And, if, a different candidate becomes the premier, who is close to Xi, that would hint that Xi has broken that consensus and further consolidated control on power by appointing someone he prefers.
Hu Chunhua has played a prominent role in the bilateral ties with India. In 2016, visiting President Pranab Mukherjee met Hu Chunhua who was at the time Party Secretary of Guangdong.

Hu has played a pivotal role in Xi’s poverty alleviation and agricultural modernisation programme. Despite leaving Tibet back in 2006, Hu has continued to maintain his association with Tibet.

“In Tibet, Hu learned about the employment and income of people who had risen out of poverty, agricultural development with local features, rural infrastructure construction and public services in the region,” Xinhua reported about Hu’s inspection tour to Tibet in July of this year.
The other person who is likely to be promoted and inducted into the Standing Committee is Chen Miner, currently serving as Party Secretary of Chongqing.

Chen has served in prominent positions such as Governor and Party Secretary of Guizhou province. Speculation making the rounds is that Chen could take up Wang Huning’s current position as Central Secretariat if the latter vacates. Chen has been described as Li’s protégé since his time as the director of the propaganda department in Zhejiang, where Xi was the Party Secretary between 2002-2007. Chen is said to have assisted Xi in his rise during his time in Zhejiang by preparing his weekly columns for the party newspaper Zhejiang Daily.

Chen has a deep interest in propaganda and party’s political theory, which makes him an ideal candidate to replace Wang Huning.
Last edited by ramana on 02 Sep 2022 05:54, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Added bold ramana
hnair
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by hnair »

Dilbu wrote:Hu Chunhua has a chance at Chinese premiership and why it will have implications for India
One name for promotion is on the top of many China watchers’ list – Hu Chunhua.
…..
Incase we want to know more about the incoming sicko:

Hu Chunhua Advances in TAR Party Hierarchy; Served During Period of Intensified Repression
Hu Chunhua also served under Chen Kuiyuan while he was the TAR Party Secretary (1992-2000). Chen oversaw a political and religious crackdown that included the imprisonment of hundreds of Buddhist monks and nuns who protested against Chinese policies during the early and mid-1990s. A five-year campaign of "Patriotic Education" (1996-2000) was implemented throughout Tibetan areas of China, but was carried out with exceptional intensity in the TAR. Many monks and nuns fled their monasteries or nunneries or were expelled during the campaign rather than fulfill demands to declare their support for Party policies on religion, the Dalai Lama, and Tibetan history.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by Cyrano »

Anyone new at the top will be tempted to show that he can do better on the borders with India, and will only increase tensions methinks. Old Xitler is better for now.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by g.sarkar »

https://www.rediff.com/news/report/indo ... 220825.htm
Indo-US military drills near LAC in October make China see red
KJM Varma, August 25, 2022

China's defence ministry on Thursday said it was firmly opposed to any third party "meddling" in the border issue and hoped India will abide by the bilateral agreements not to hold military drills near the Line of Actual Control, the very pacts it has been accused of violating in eastern Ladakh leading to a prolonged standoff.
Senior Colonel Tan Kefei, a spokesperson for China's ministry of national defence, made the comments while replying to question about reports of special forces of the US and India recently holding a joint combat exercise in the southern foothills of the Himalayas and their plans to conduct a joint military exercise code-named "War Exercise" (Yudh Abhyas) in October close to the border.
"We firmly oppose any third party to meddle in the China-India border issue in any form," Tan told an online press conference in Beijing.
Tan said that China has always stressed that military cooperation of relevant countries, especially on exercises and training activities, should not be targeted at any third party, but rather serve to help maintain regional peace and stability.
The China-India border issue is a matter between the two countries. Both sides have maintained effective communications at all levels and agreed to properly handle the situation through bilateral dialogues, he said.
......
Gautam
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

Should know more about Chen Min'er.
Wang Huning is a very accomplished counselor and would take a lot to fill his shoes.

China CV on Chen Min'er

https://www.chinavitae.com/biography/Chen_Miner%7C4309

And Wikipedia article:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chen_Min%27er
ramana
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

Any access to the Qu Qingshan article? That could be illuminating.

XJP has been talking about the 'Sinicization of Marxism' since the 19th Congress.* So it's not new.
Gen PRS article is a compilation of facts with his own views.
What we need to understand is what does XJP want to do?
Ranade's article points to that.

BTW even Deng Xiaopeng also talked about the Sinicization of Marxism,
Gautam Bambawale 's appraisal talks about it.
ramana
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

US is prepping Taiwan as China's Ukraine.
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Re: Understanding New China After the 19th and 20th Congresses

Post by ramana »

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/xi ... ten-future

Interesting article that describes China since 1949.
And a long litany of how XJP is different from the previous leaders.

Ignore all the may or perhaps in the first few paras.
Good recap.
Basically, PRC is still a Confucius society seeking order from which everything flows.
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